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    % of Sales Growth

    Uploaded by

    amruteswar
    This document summarizes the projected financial statements for a company from 2010-2019 including sales, EBIT, EBITDA, net free cash flow, and equity value. Sales are projected to grow at 4.5% annually from 2010-2018 and 2% in the terminal year. EBIT margins are projected to increase gradually from 20.6% to 23.5% of sales over the period. Net free cash flow is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.1% from 2013-2019. The firm value is estimated to be $36.26 billion based on discounted future cash flows and a terminal value calculation.

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    % of Sales Growth

    Uploaded by

    amruteswar
    22 views4 pages
    This document summarizes the projected financial statements for a company from 2010-2019 including sales, EBIT, EBITDA, net free cash flow, and equity value. Sales are projected to grow at 4.5% annually from 2010-2018 and 2% in the terminal year. EBIT margins are projected to increase gradually from 20.6% to 23.5% of sales over the period. Net free cash flow is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.1% from 2013-2019. The firm value is estimated to be $36.26 billion based on discounted future cash flows and a terminal value calculation.

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    Valuation

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    This document summarizes the projected financial statements for a company from 2010-2019 including sales, EBIT, EBITDA, net free cash flow, and equity value. Sales are projected to grow at 4.5% annually from 2010-2018 and 2% in the terminal year. EBIT margins are projected to increase gradually from 20.6% to 23.5% of sales over the period. Net free cash flow is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.1% from 2013-2019. The firm value is estimated to be $36.26 billion based on discounted future cash flows and a terminal value calculation.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    22 views4 pages

    % of Sales Growth

    Uploaded by

    amruteswar
    This document summarizes the projected financial statements for a company from 2010-2019 including sales, EBIT, EBITDA, net free cash flow, and equity value. Sales are projected to grow at 4.5% annually from 2010-2018 and 2% in the terminal year. EBIT margins are projected to increase gradually from 20.6% to 23.5% of sales over the period. Net free cash flow is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.1% from 2013-2019. The firm value is estimated to be $36.26 billion based on discounted future cash flows and a terminal value calculation.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 4

    $ mn

    Sales
    % of sales growth

    2010A 2010E
    2011E
    2012E
    2013E
    2014E
    2015E
    2016E
    2017E
    2018E
    ###
    ### $88,899 $92,899 $97,080 $101,448
    $78,938 $79,098
    ###
    ###
    0.20% 3.05% 4.37%
    4.50%
    4.50%
    4.50%
    4.50%
    4.50%
    4.50%

    EBIT Total
    % of sales

    $16,021
    20.3%

    EBIT*(1-t) Core
    Underlying tax rate

    ### 11,810.7
    27.3%
    27.5%

    Add
    Depreciation & Amortization Core
    $3,108
    % of sales
    3.9%
    Change in Working Capital
    WC as % sales
    0.0%
    Less
    Net Capex
    Capex/Sales
    Net Free Cash Flow
    % growth
    PV of Cash Flow (10E-19E)
    Add: Terminal Value
    Firm Value
    Less: Net Debt/(Cash)
    Less: Preferred shares
    Equity Value

    $16,291 $17,032 $18,031


    20.6%
    20.9%
    21.2%
    ###
    27.5%

    $19,109
    21.5%

    $20,248
    21.8%

    $21,450
    22.1%

    $22,720 $24,060 $25,476


    22.4%
    22.7%
    23.0%

    ### 13,854.3 14,679.8 15,551.5 16,472.0


    27.5%
    27.5%
    27.5%
    27.5%
    27.5%

    3,114.3 3,209.2 3,573.0


    3.9%
    3.9%
    4.2%
    395.5 407.5 425.4
    -0.5%
    -0.5%
    -0.5%

    3,733.7
    4.2%
    444.5
    -0.5%

    3,901.8
    4.2%
    464.5
    -0.5%

    4,077.3
    4.2%
    485.4
    -0.5%

    ###
    27.5%

    ###
    27.5%

    4,260.8 4,452.6 4,652.9


    4.2%
    4.2%
    4.2%
    507.2 530.1 553.9
    -0.5%
    -0.5%
    -0.5%

    ### -3,322.1
    -4.2%
    -4.2%

    ###
    -4.2%

    ### -3,733.7 -3,901.8 -4,077.3 -4,260.8


    -4.2%
    -4.2%
    -4.2%
    -4.2%
    -4.2%

    ###
    -4.2%

    ###
    -4.2%

    ### 11,998.4
    4.5%

    ###
    7.6%

    ### 14,298.8 15,144.3 16,036.9 16,979.2


    5.9%
    5.9%
    5.9%
    5.9%
    5.9%

    ###
    5.8%

    ###
    5.8%

    ###
    ###
    ###

    ###

    2,952.0
    100.6
    0.5

    2,851.0
    ###
    3.564%

    0.1
    Ebitda
    EV/Ebitda
    19,405.0
    15.3

    2019E
    Terminal
    ###
    ###
    4.50%
    2.00%
    $26,969 $27,745
    23.3%
    23.5%
    ###
    27.5%

    ###
    27.5%

    4,862.3 4,959.6
    4.2%
    4.2%
    578.8 590.4
    -0.5%
    -0.5%

    ###
    -4.2%

    ###
    -4.2%

    ###
    2.0%

    ###

    mn
    Sales
    Sales core
    % growth
    Sales pharma
    % growth
    EBIT Total
    EBIT Core
    % of sales
    EBIT Pharma
    % of sales

    2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E


    2014E
    2015E
    2016E
    2017E
    2018E
    2019E
    ### 8,258.3 8,276.2
    ### 9,505.6 9,997.7
    ###
    ###
    ###
    ###
    ###
    ### 7,523.3 7,982.2
    ### 9,155.9 9,613.7
    ###
    ###
    ###
    ###
    ###
    5%
    6.10% 7.00%
    7.20%
    5.00%
    5.00%
    5.00%
    5.00%
    5.00%
    5.00%
    588.0 735.0 294.0 319.5 349.8 384.0 420.7
    462.1 506.7 556.1 611.7
    25%
    -60%
    9%
    9%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    10%
    ###
    ###
    ###
    ###
    ###
    ###
    ###
    ### 2,119.2 1,880.7
    ### 2,206.4 2,369.7 2,543.9 2,729.5 2,928.1 3,139.5 3,376.8
    ### 1,626.1 1,757.2
    ### 2,098.0 2,251.0 2,414.0 2,587.7 2,772.7 2,969.8 3,190.1
    21.2%
    21.6%
    22.0% 22.4%
    22.9%
    23.4%
    23.9%
    24.4%
    24.9%
    25.4%
    26.0%
    371.0 493.2 123.5 99.6 108.4 118.7 129.9
    141.8 155.4 169.7 186.7
    63.1%
    67.1%
    42.0% 31.2%
    31.0%
    30.9%
    30.9%
    30.7%
    30.7%
    30.5%
    30.5%

    EBIT*(1-t) Core
    ### 1,219.6 1,317.9
    ### 1,573.5 1,688.2 1,810.5 1,940.8 2,079.5 2,227.3 2,392.6
    Underlying tax rate
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0% 25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    EBIT*(1-t) Pharma
    123.3
    30.9 24.9
    27.1
    29.7
    32.5
    35.5
    38.8
    42.4
    46.7
    Underlying tax rate
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0% 25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    EBIT*(1-t)
    1,342.9 1,348.8
    ### 1,600.6 1,717.9 1,843.0 1,976.2 2,118.4 2,269.8 2,439.3
    Underlying tax rate
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0% 25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    25.0%
    Add
    Depreciation & Amortization Core
    119.0 125.0 132.6 196.4 210.6 221.1 232.2
    243.8 256.0 268.8 282.2
    % of sales
    1.7%
    1.7%
    1.7%
    2.3%
    2.3%
    2.3%
    2.3%
    2.3%
    2.3%
    2.3%
    2.3%
    Change in Working Capital
    40.3
    51.6 62.8
    69.2
    51.5
    54.1
    56.8
    59.6
    62.6
    65.7
    WC as % sales
    -11.2% -11.2% -11.2% -11.2% -11.2% -11.2% -11.2% -11.2% -11.2% -11.2% -11.2%
    Less
    Net Capex
    Capex/Sales

    158.0 -263.3 -239.5 -196.4


    2.0% -3.50% -3.00% -2.30%

    Net Free Cash Flow


    % growth

    1,244.8 1,293.5
    3.9%
    17.8%

    PV of Cash Flow (10E-19E)


    Add: Terminal Value
    Firm Value
    Less: Net Debt/(Cash)
    Equity Value

    Current assets
    current liablilities
    Operating working capital
    Premium
    Free cash flow

    ###
    ###
    ###
    -489.0
    ###

    31,080

    30%

    -221.1
    -2.30%

    -232.2
    -2.30%

    -243.8
    -2.30%

    40%

    ### 36,260

    -256.0
    -2.30%

    -268.8
    -2.30%

    -282.2
    -2.30%

    ### 1,669.8 1,769.4 1,897.0 2,033.0 2,178.0 2,332.3 2,505.0


    9.6%
    6.0%
    7.2%
    7.2%
    7.1%
    7.1%
    7.4%
    2.0%

    Ebitda EV/Ebitda
    2,244.2
    11.5

    ###
    ###
    -872.0
    20%

    -210.6
    -2.30%

    Terminal
    ###
    ###
    2.00%
    624.0
    2%
    3,444.3
    3,253.9
    26.0%
    190.4
    30.5%
    2,440.5
    25.0%
    47.6
    25.0%
    2,488.1
    25.0%
    287.8
    2.3%
    27.6
    -11.2%

    -287.8
    -2.30%
    2,515.7

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