Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 53 views

    CA-21 FM3 For John Hernandez (Oct. 2012)

    Uploaded by

    Daily Kos Elections
    A recent survey of likely voters in California's 21st Congressional District shows Democrat John Hernandez and Republican David Valadao in a statistical tie. The survey found Hernandez receiving 37% support and Valadao receiving 41% support, with 22% undecided. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-39% in the district. The results suggest Hernandez can beat Valadao by appealing to the district's Latino voters and Democrats, who support Obama. As a Hispanic Chamber of Commerce CEO, Hernandez has an appealing profile to many voters in the heavily Latino district.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    CA-21 FM3 For John Hernandez (Oct. 2012)

    Uploaded by

    Daily Kos Elections
    53 views2 pages
    A recent survey of likely voters in California's 21st Congressional District shows Democrat John Hernandez and Republican David Valadao in a statistical tie. The survey found Hernandez receiving 37% support and Valadao receiving 41% support, with 22% undecided. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-39% in the district. The results suggest Hernandez can beat Valadao by appealing to the district's Latino voters and Democrats, who support Obama. As a Hispanic Chamber of Commerce CEO, Hernandez has an appealing profile to many voters in the heavily Latino district.

    Original Title

    CA-21 FM3 for John Hernandez (Oct. 2012)

    Copyright

    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    A recent survey of likely voters in California's 21st Congressional District shows Democrat John Hernandez and Republican David Valadao in a statistical tie. The survey found Hernandez receiving 37% support and Valadao receiving 41% support, with 22% undecided. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-39% in the district. The results suggest Hernandez can beat Valadao by appealing to the district's Latino voters and Democrats, who support Obama. As a Hispanic Chamber of Commerce CEO, Hernandez has an appealing profile to many voters in the heavily Latino district.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    53 views2 pages

    CA-21 FM3 For John Hernandez (Oct. 2012)

    Uploaded by

    Daily Kos Elections
    A recent survey of likely voters in California's 21st Congressional District shows Democrat John Hernandez and Republican David Valadao in a statistical tie. The survey found Hernandez receiving 37% support and Valadao receiving 41% support, with 22% undecided. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-39% in the district. The results suggest Hernandez can beat Valadao by appealing to the district's Latino voters and Democrats, who support Obama. As a Hispanic Chamber of Commerce CEO, Hernandez has an appealing profile to many voters in the heavily Latino district.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 2

    TO: FROM: RE: DATE:

    Interested Parties Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) Results of Survey in California Congressional District 21 October 17, 2012

    A recent survey of likely voters conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates shows Small Business Advocate John Hernandez and California State Legislator David Valadao in a statistical tie in a competitive race for Californias 21st Congressional District.i When voters are read the names of the candidates and their official ballot designations, Hernandez receives 37 percent of the vote, and Valadao receives 41 percent, with nearly a quarter of voters (22%) undecided. FIGURE 1: Congressional District 21 Vote

    Total Valadao

    41%

    Total Hernandez

    37%

    Undecided
    0% 15%

    22%
    30% 45% 60%

    The survey results also show that there is an opportunity for Hernandez to make up ground among Democrats, who make up nearly half of voters in the district. Barack Obama and Joe Biden hold 50 percent of the vote in this district compared to Mitt Romney and Paul Ryans 39
    2 4 2 5 Col or ado Avenue, Sui t e 18 0 Santa Monica, CA 90404 Phone: (310) 828-1183 Fax: (310) 453-6562 1999 Harrison Street , Suite 1290 O a k l a n d , C A 9 4 6 1 2 Phone: (510) 451-9521 Fax: (510) 451-0384

    California Congressional District 21 Survey Summary Memo Page 2

    percent, with just 11 percent undecided. Obama leads among Democrats (74% support), Latinos (67%), younger voters ages 18 to 49 (56%) and Independents (55%), who are also the most undecided in the Congressional race. The 11 percent of voters undecided in the presidential race are also primarily comprised of Obamas strongest supportersDemocrats, Latinos, Independents and younger votersand will likely support the President over Mitt Romney on Election Day. FIGURE 2: Presidential Vote in Congressional District 21
    Total Obama/Biden
    50%

    Total Romney/Ryan

    39%

    Undecided
    0%

    11%
    15% 30% 45% 60%

    Taken together, the results suggest that Democrat John Hernandez is in a position to beat Republican David Valadao and win the Congressional District 21 seat. This heavily Latino district leans Democratic and President Obama is beating Mitt Romney by double-digits. As CEO of the Central California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, John Hernandez has a profile that is appealing to voters and his message of jobs first resonates strongly in the district. With a strong communications campaign to voters, Hernandez will come out ahead on Election Day.
    i

    Methodology: From October 13-15, 2012, FM3 completed 400 telephone interviews with Congressional District 21 voters likely to vote in the November 2012 general election. Interviews were conducted on landlines and cell phones. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.9%; margins of error for subgroups within the sample will be higher.

    You might also like