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Daily Metals and Energy Report December 6

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| December 6, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report


Thursday| December 6, 2012

International Commodities
Overview
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI gained to 54.7 levels in November. UKs services sector contracted to 50.2 levels in last month. US Factory Orders m/m grew by 0.8 percent in November. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change rose by 118 K in November Indias HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.7 points to 52.1-mark in November as against a previous rise of 53.8-level in October. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI gained to 54.7 levels in the month of November as compared to 54.2 in October. US Factory Orders m/m grew but at a slower pace by 0.8 percent in the month of October as against 4.5 percent in September. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change rose by 118000 jobs in November as compared to a rise of 157000 jobs in the month of October. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note taking cues from positive US services and factory data in yesterdays session while downgrade of the Greece by Standard &Poor is creating worries that the debt concerns are still persistent. US Dollar Index (DX) after trading weak in the last few days settled 0.3 percent higher in yesterdays session due to persistent worries of the fiscal cliff issue of the US and no solution to the problem yet. This led to rise in the risk aversion in the global markets and increased the demand for the low yielding currency. However, towards the end of the session optimism that US lawmakers might be able to solve the fiscal cliff issue erased some of the gains in the index. US equities ended on a positive note in yesterdays session. Hopes that the fiscal cliff issue might be resolved supported an upside in the US stocks towards the end of the day. However, in the beginning of the session rise in the risk aversion resulting from worries amongst the market participants over the fiscal cliff issue was observed which kept the US stocks lower. The index touched a intra-day high of 79.85 and closed at 79.84 on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee appreciated on optimism amongst the market participants that the FDI reforms might be approved in the parliament along with continued selling of dollars. If approval on FDI is provided there would be ample inflow of dollars. However, strength in the DX restricted sharp appreciation in the currency yesterday. The rupee closed at 54.42 after touching a high 54.41 on Wednesday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 3050.20 crores till 05th December 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 106,322.30 crores till December 05th 2012.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last INR/$ (Spot)
54.42 0.6

as on 5 December, 2012

Prev day

w-o-w

m-o-m

y-o-y

2.3

0.3

-5.9

$/Euro (Spot)
1.3066 -0.2 0.9 2.1 -2.5

Dollar Index
79.84 0.3 -0.6 -1.2 1.6

NIFTY

5900.5

0.19

3.02

3.44

16.87

SENSEX

19391.86

0.23

2.92

3.35

15.39

DJIA

13034.49

0.6

0.4

-0.6

7.3

S&P

1409.3

0.2

0.0

-0.6

12.1

Source: Reuters

Euro declined 0.2 percent due to weak Spanish bond yield sale and unfavorable economic data from the region. Strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, downside in the currency was cushioned due to favorable data from the region. The currency touched an intra-day low of 1.3059 and closed at 1.3066 on Wednesday.

Spanish Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.2 points to 42.4-mark in November as against a rise of 41.2level in October. Italian Services PMI declined by 1.4 points to 44.6-level in November from earlier rise of 46-mark a month ago. European Final Services PMI increases by 1 point to 46.7level in last month as compared to rise of 45.7-mark in October. European Retail Sales declined by 1.2 percent in October with respect to previous fall of 0.2 percent a month earlier.

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Commodities Daily Report


Thursday| December 6, 2012

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Spot gold prices declined 1.08 percent in yesterdays session on persistent worries amongst global participants as to how the US law makers would solve the fiscal cliff issue. Strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the gold prices in yesterday session. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1,690.64/oz and closed at $1684.40 on Wednesday. On the MCX, Gold December contract ended 0.6 percent lower taking cues from bearishness in the spot gold prices along with appreciation in the Indian rupee. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs.30,778/10 gms on Wednesday after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 30,710/ 10gms

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)


Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot -Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Feb13) MCX Gold (Feb13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last
1693.4 31000.0

as on 5 December, 2012 Prev day


-0.2 -0.4

WoW
-1.5 #N/A

MoM
-1.3 0.8

YoY
-1.6 7.1

1694.0

-0.2

-0.8

0.2

-2.9

$/oz

1692.4

-0.1

-1.4

-1.3

-2.2

Silver
Spot silver fell 0.2 percent in yesterdays session taking cues from weakness in the spot gold prices. Doubts amongst global participants as to how the US law makers would solve the fiscal cliff issue is creating bearish market sentiments. Strength in the DX also acted as a bearish factor for the silver prices in yesterdays session. However, strength in the base metals pack cushioned sharp fall in the spot silver prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $32.49/oz and closed at $32.84 per oz on Wednesday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices declined 0.4 percent and closed at Rs. 60,452/kg on Tuesday and touched an intra-day low Rs. 60,033/ kg. MCX silver prices fell on the back of appreciation in the Indian rupee and traced bearishness in the spot silver prices.

Rs /10 gms

30778.0

-0.6

-3.5

-1.6

#N/A

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)


Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot -Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Mar13) MCX Silver (Mar13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg $/oz $/ oz Last
32.8 62400.0 3307.0

as on 5 December, 2012 WoW


-2.6 -2.6 -2.3

Prev day
-0.2 -0.7 -0.7

MoM
2.8 4.3 5.3

YoY
2.8 10.9 1.8

3288.3 60452.0

0.5 -0.4

-2.4 -4.2

2.7 0.9

1.8 #N/A

Rs / kg

Outlook
In todays session we expect precious metals to trade with a negative bias on account of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Downgrade of Greece credit rating to selective default (SD) category from CCC by the Standard & Poors might create bearish market sentiments. In the domestic markets however, appreciation in the Indian rupee is expected to exert downside pressure on the precious metals on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Feb13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Mar13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for December 6, 2012 Support 1685/1679 31100/31000 32.55/32.38 62000/61700 Resistance 1693/1699 31250/31360 32.85/33.0 62500/62800

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report


Thursday| December 6, 2012

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.5 percent yesterday taking cues from more than expected rise in US gasoline inventories coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from the US also added downside pressure on the oil prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $87.46/bbl and closed at $87.90/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.8 percent as a result of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4,817/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.4,794/bbl on Wednesday. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Jan13) ICE Brent Crude (Jan13) MCX Crude (Dec12) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last
87.4 110.0 87.9

as on 5 December,2012 WoW
1.5 0.7 1.6

Prev. day
-0.8 -0.9 -0.7

MoM
-1.4 -0.2 -0.9

YoY
-13.5 -1.8 -13.0

$/bbl

108.8

-0.9

-0.6

-2.0

-0.9

Rs/bbl

4817.0

-0.8

0.0

0.5

#N/A

Source: Reuters

EIA Inventories Data As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report last night, US crude oil inventories declined more than expectations by 2.36 million barrels to 371.76 million barrels for the week ending on 30th November 2012. Gasoline stocks rose by 7.86 million barrels the most since 21st September 2001 and whereas distillate stockpiles also gained by 3.03 million barrels for the last week Natural Gas EIA Inventories Forecast US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories and US natural gas inventory are expected to decline by 70 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending on 30th November 2012.

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)


Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Dec 12) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.684 201.9 Prev. day 3.75 3.17

as on 5 December, 2012

WoW -3.36 -3.99

MoM 3.86 3.38

YoY 6.41 13.24

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Nymex Crude Oil

Outlook In the intra-day, we expect crude oil prices to trade with a negative bias taking cues from weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Worries amongst market participants over the fiscal cliff issue in the US are still not resolved. In the domestic markets appreciation in the Indian Rupee will act as a bearish factor for the MCX crude prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Dec 12 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for December 6, 2012 Support 87.85/87.30 4770/4740 Resistance 89.20/90.10 4840/4890

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart Nymex Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report


Thursday| December 6, 2012

Base Metals

International Commodities
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Feb13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Dec12) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel Rs /kg
957.6 0.0 1.6 8.7 #N/A

Base metal prices gained due to expectation that the demand might increase in the coming days from the major consuming nation that is China. Decline in the LME inventories yesterdays supported an upside in the base metal prices. However, strength in the DX capped sharp gains in base metals prices.

as on 5 December, 2012 WoW


4.2

Last
8076.0

Prev. day
0.5

MoM
4.4

YoY
1.9

$/tonne

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metals pack continued to extend gains of the precious day and surged 0.5 percent in yesterdays session and closed at $8,076/tonne on Wednesday, on expectation that the demand might increase in the coming days after favourable manufacturing data from China in the last week. Further optimism that the government might take steps to revive the economy (China) also acted as a supportive factor for the copper prices. Decline in the LME copper inventories, also added to the gains of the red metals. However, strength in the DX, capped sharp gains in the copper prices. LME Copper inventories decreased by 0.14 percent in yesterdays session also added to the gains in the copper prices. LME Copper stocks stood at 2,49,025 tonnes in yesterdays session as against 2,49375 tonnes on 4th December 2012. Prices touched an intra-day high $8,095.75 per tonne and closed at $8,076/tonne on Wednesday. In the domestic markets MCX copper gained 0.2 percent taking cues from strength in the international prices. In the domestic markets prices of Copper on MCX touched a high of Rs. 447.7 per kg and closed at Rs.446.6 per kg on Wednesday. Outlook From the intraday perspective, base metal prices are expected to trade with bearish note on account of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. However, expectations of demand from the key consuming nation are likely to cushion sharp fall in the base metal prices. In the domestic markets, appreciation in the Rupee will exert downside pressure in the copper prices on MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Feb13 MCX Zinc Dec12 MCX Lead Dec12 MCX Aluminum Dec12 MCX Nickel Dec12 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for December 6, 2012 Support 443/441 109.4/108.8 121/120.3 113.4/112.8 950/945 Resistance 449/451 110.8/111.5 122.5/123.4 114.8/115.4 965/974

Rs/kg

446.6

0.2

3.3

5.8

#N/A

$/tonne

2105.0

0.7

5.3

9.2

-1.0

Rs /kg

114.0

0.0

2.5

9.0

#N/A

$/tonne

17560.0

0.3

3.5

8.5

-4.4

(Dec12) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Dec12) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Dec12)
Source: Reuters

$/tonne

2243.0

0.1

2.4

3.3

6.9

Rs /kg

121.8

-0.1

-0.1

2.5

#N/A

$/tonne

2028.3

0.3

2.4

6.6

-0.1

Rs /kg

110.1

-0.4

0.5

7.3

#N/A

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 5th December
249025 5189950 138354 1230500 361525

4th December
249375 5191175 138360 1232450 362275

Actual Change -350 -1,225 -6 -1,950 -750

(%) Change -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2


Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report


Thursday| December 6, 2012

International Commodities
Important economic indicators for the day

Indicator Halifax HPI m/m Trade Balance French 10-y Bond Auction German Factory Orders m/m Asset Purchase Facility MPC Rate Statement Official Bank Rate Minimum Bid Rate ECB Press Conference Unemployment Claims

Country UK UK Euro Euro UK UK UK Euro Euro US

Time (IST) 6 7
th th

Actual -

Forecast 0.2% -8.7B 0.9% 375B 0.50% 0.75% 382K

Previous -0.7% -8.4B -3.3% 375B 0.50% 0.75% 393K

Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High High High High High High

3:00pm Tentative 4:30pm 5:30pm Tentative 5:30pm 6:15pm 7:00pm 7:00pm

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