Cream System
Cream System
Cream System
In my circle of racing friends, this system is referred to as the CREAM SYSTEM. This is alluding to the fact that the cream always rises to the top, and that in this instance; the CREAM of the racehorses will always beat the average racehorse. So, the system relies entirely on CLASS horses. So , let us get on quickly with the system to earn you a nice income. 1. 2. 3. 4 5. 6. Log on to the internet and browse to http://www.sportinglife.com Click on Racing Click on Race cards This will bring up a list of the following weeks race meetings Look at todays meetings and click on Summary on any meeting This will bring up a list of the individual races for that meeting
Now we are going to set up a THREE WAY FILTER to zone in more closely. 1. Filter out any race with 10 runners or more 2. Filter out any race with a class factor lower than ( Class D ) 3. Filter out any handicap race
Let me explain briefly why we filter the above. 1. Filter out any race with 10 runners or more Single figure races should in theory prove less troublesome over say races with 30 runners, simply because the more horses, the harder it is to win. Also, if you have a wall of 9 horses in front of you with a furlong to go, there is not much hope. So, a small group of horses should be easier for the jockey to get his horse past those in front of him. 2. Filter out any race with a class factor lower than ( Class D ) As we said earlier, the class factor is what this system depends on. Group races 1.2.3. Listed Races. Grade Races. Class A. B. C. are all top notch races that attract all the best horses. Class D,E,F,G,H races are for the lower ability animals, and also unreliable horses, which obviously, you do not want your money on. Also, and this is vital. The higher the Grade of race, the more the prize money. The more the prize money, the more likely that the owner, trainer, connections, etc, WANT THE HORSE TO WIN. Im sure no one is nave enough these days to think that all horses turning up at every meeting are all trying to win. They will only win when the connections want them to win. So, filter 2 is very important. We only want to bet on the decent prize money races. 3. Filter out any handicap race
Keeping on the cream theme, we want to back the best horses against horses of lower ability, simple enough. If it is a handicap, then the professional handicapper, who knows his job inside out, will try to make all the horses finish in a straight line, by adding weight to the jockeys saddle. This is absolutely no use to us whatsoever, so no handicap races. We want the cream to rise to the top, with our money on it. Now we have filtered the race card, and we can see that only ONE race fits our criteria for betting selection 2.45 Kempton Betfair Novices Hurdle ( Class B ) 7 Runners. 1. Click on the Time of the Race i.e 2.45 and the Full Race with Horses, Jockeys, Price Forecasts will come up. 2. Click on the first horse in the race, in blue, after its number. This will bring up the horses individual form. 3. Scroll down to Most Recent Races Run then look across to where is says Performance. You will see here a list of where the horse finished on its previous races, but more importantly, you will see WHAT CLASS OF RACE IT HAS BEEN RUNNING IN. This is what we are most interested in. 4. Now we know that the race today is a Class B race, so we are looking for: a) Whether the horse has had previous runs in a Class B race or Higher. b) Whether the horse has finished creditably in this company. I.e. 1st, 2nd 3rd, 4th. c) Whether the horse has finished creditably in this company recently, in its last two starts. Never back a horse that is out of form. d) Whether the horse has winning form, but of a lower class race. Ie Class E. 5. Go down each of the runners in the race, noting or writing down the above. A clear picture will often emerge. Let us say that Horse Number 1 has ran in Class B on its last two outings, finishing 4th and 2nd. Horse Number 2 has won its last three outings, all Class E. Horse Number 3 has been unplaced in its last four outings, in Class A, B, B, C. 6. Horse number 1 would be the clear selection. He has performed creditably in the Grade, 4th and 2nd. Horse number 2 , although winning its last three races, has to leap 3 grades to win this, and that would be a difficult task. Horse number 3 is up to the Grade, but is out of form, and best watched until regaining some decent form. 7. Now, press your back button on your browser until you get back to the individual race in question, and scroll down to the price forecast at the bottom of the page. Horse number 1 should be the favourite, ie the shortest price, and THIS IS OUR SELECTION. However, should Horse number 2 be the favourite, or second favourite, then we will be thinking about LAYING this horse on the exchanges, in other words, we will be backing it to LOSE. If the
horse is an outsider, ie 10/1 to 33/1, leave alone. The market realises it is unlikely to win 8. Repeat this process, starting again with the filter process, for all of the race meetings for the day. 9. You will then be left with a number of selections for the day. Now, because this is a class system, often, selections will be only on a Saturday, or on a major meeting like Ascot, Cheltenham, Chester etc, during the week. Often, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday will show no selections because of the lack of Class C or higher races. No worry, you may get 3 or 4 selections on a Saturday. 10. Finally, let us now see what we are going to do with our findings for the day. We have 3 camps here: A) THE BACKERS B) THE LAYERS C) THE DISCRIMINATIVE PUNTER Looking at the example above, we have: Horse Number 1 , which we could punt on to win. This is Camp A) The Backers. Horse Number 2 , which we could lay on to lose. This is Camp B) The Layers. Selectively doing one or the other above, or both, according to vibes, conditions of the race, weather, jockey , trainer in form, etc.This is Camp C) The discriminative punter. We will analyse each Camp in turn, starting with the highest risk, hence highest return; THE BACKERS. The backers have only one chance. Their horse must win: It must beat the other 6 horses. The layers have 6 chances out of 7 to win. The backer has only 1 out of 7. So it is inevitable that only a percentage of your selections will win. It is therefore imperative that you have a sensible staking plan for the inevitable ups and downs of the backers life. If only 50% of your selections win, you will make a fortune!! This is the staking plan which I have used successfully over the years. There are others, but I have only tested this one. THE STAKING PLAN HORSE A B C D STAKE 20 20 20 20 WIN / LOSE W 2/1 W 1/1 W 4/1 L BANK 240 260 340 320
E F G H I J
20 20 20 40 40 20
1. We start with a bank of say, 200. 2. Keep this separate from everything else, this is your BETTING ONLY BANK. 1. Each selection you make, you bet 10% of this bank. If you would rather be more careful, conservative, make this 5% 2. When the bank doubles , you double your stake. So, in the above example, 20 per selection was staked until the bank doubled ( went past 400 ) on the 21/01/04. Then the stakes went to 40, ( 10% of the bank ) until the loss on 25/01/04 brought us back under 400, so the stake reverted to 20. 3. Keep careful daily records. 4. Thats it. Now, years down the line, you are going to want to place 480 per selection or more, so your local bookie is not going to want your custom. I have added a section on online bookmakers with this CD. 5. What I have done, personally, is to use 3 or 4 online bookmakers until they ban me, or more usual , restrict my amounts to some silly figure like 10 maximum per bet. Then close the account, draw out the money, and open another with a different bookmaker. There are new online bookmakers opening weekly, so you should not run out of them. THE LAYERS.
This is a new phenonomen of recent times. You actually take on the role of the bookmaker through what is known as betting exchanges. I have included a brief rundown on betting exchanges on the CD So, in the example above, we are looking to LAY Horse Number 2 to LOSE If there are seven runners, we have a 6 out of 7 chance of winning. http://www.betfair.com The above site acts as a middleman between individual people: some who want to back the horse, and some who want to lay the bet. The bookmaker is taken out of the equation, although bookmakers do use these betting exchanges. Now because we have 6 out of 7 chances of winning, we have to give decent odds to people to entice them to bet with us and not the bookmaker. So the prices on betting exchanges tend to be 20% better than the bookmaker. The procedure for this type of betting is this:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
Register an account at Betfair at the link above. Deposit some money with Betfair. Scroll down the menus at the site, and select Todays horse racing. Click the 2.45 pm at Kempton. Click the lay tab alongside horse no2 Follow Betfairs instructions, which show potential losses as well as gains. Now with this sort of bet, you can only win the amount that you want to people to back with you. For example. If Horse No2 is 2/1 favourite on the Sporting Life site, you may want to offer 5/2 to entice backers to back with you. So to win 20, you have to be prepared to lose 50 8. Thats it, as long as Horse no2 does not win, Betfair will adjust your account with an extra 20, less approx 5% for their commission. If Horse No2 does win, your account will be debited 50. Now, with laying horses, you can follow the same pattern as the backers above, keeping careful records like thus; Or, you could you a slight variation for laying, which is altering your stake to coincide with 10% ( or 5% ) of your stake. Example Below. Remember, we want the horse to lose here: DATE 15/01/04 16/01/04 16/01/04 16/01/04 17/01/04 18/01/04 21/01/04 24/01/04 25/01/04 26/01/04 HORSE A B C D E F G H I J STAKE 20 22 24 26 29 22 24 27 30 33 WIN / LOSE L L L L W 9/4 L L L L W 1/1 BANK 220 242 266 292 226 248 272 304 334 301
Like all things in life, the more you try your hand at new things, the more knowledge you gain, and the more discrimination you learn. After a year or two, or less, you may find that certain things work for you, certain things dont, and you can move on to more and more profit situations, and less loss situations. An example may be:
A certain trainer is on a roll at the moment: nearly everything coming out of the stable is trotting up. If this occurs, and this is one of your lays, it might be prudent to let this one go for today. Or: A freak downpour makes the going heavy at Sandown, and you notice that one of your selections runs all his best races on firm going. Let this one go. Keep your money in your pocket. The more knowledge you have, combined with the Cream System, can make the difference between moderate success, and the extraordinary success of the few.