Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 47 views

    Technical Research19

    Uploaded by

    Jack Burton
    The document provides a technical analysis and strategy for major currency pairs. It finds that renewed USD weakness is providing an opportunity for some base metals and currencies like GBP and AUD to strengthen in the near term. However, these moves are seen as temporary given larger bullish signals for the USD. Daily focus is on Sterling's potential short-term upswing against the USD. Charts are included analyzing trends and levels for various currency pairs.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Technical Research19

    Uploaded by

    Jack Burton
    47 views4 pages
    The document provides a technical analysis and strategy for major currency pairs. It finds that renewed USD weakness is providing an opportunity for some base metals and currencies like GBP and AUD to strengthen in the near term. However, these moves are seen as temporary given larger bullish signals for the USD. Daily focus is on Sterling's potential short-term upswing against the USD. Charts are included analyzing trends and levels for various currency pairs.

    Original Description:

    DAILY TECH

    Copyright

    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    The document provides a technical analysis and strategy for major currency pairs. It finds that renewed USD weakness is providing an opportunity for some base metals and currencies like GBP and AUD to strengthen in the near term. However, these moves are seen as temporary given larger bullish signals for the USD. Daily focus is on Sterling's potential short-term upswing against the USD. Charts are included analyzing trends and levels for various currency pairs.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    47 views4 pages

    Technical Research19

    Uploaded by

    Jack Burton
    The document provides a technical analysis and strategy for major currency pairs. It finds that renewed USD weakness is providing an opportunity for some base metals and currencies like GBP and AUD to strengthen in the near term. However, these moves are seen as temporary given larger bullish signals for the USD. Daily focus is on Sterling's potential short-term upswing against the USD. Charts are included analyzing trends and levels for various currency pairs.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    Technical Research

    31 May 2013

    Global Daily FX Technical Analysis and Strategy


    Renewed weakness in the USD around month end is providing an opportunity for some base metals to rebound. It is not just the metals, other currencies such as sterling and the AUD are also showing near term signs of strength. For cable, the bullish volume indications noted in Daily FX Technical Volume Strategy Cable positive volume are being vindicated and we expect short term strength. Similarly for AUD/USD, stops likely located above 0.9700 are vulnerable. However, we view such moves as temporary given the larger bullish signals noted for the USD in recent reports (Bullish Reversal months forming in several currency pairs such as USD/MXN and USD/ILS).

    Daily focus: Sterlings temporary upswing

    Source: CQG

    Barclays | Global Daily FX Technical Analysis and Strategy

    FX CHARTS
    FIGURE 1 EUR/USD comes back from key support at 1.2750, now risking short term upside though momentum is getting overdone.

    Source: CQG

    FIGURE 2 Signs of emerging CHF strength though levels to clear at 1.2420 for EUR/CHF and 106.70 for CHF/JPY.

    Source: CQG

    31 May 2013

    Barclays | Global Daily FX Technical Analysis and Strategy

    FX CHARTS AND LEVELS


    FIGURE 3 USD/CAD pulls back from long term trend-line resistance while AUD/USD threatens to stage a temporary relief rally.

    Source: CQG

    FIGURE 4
    EUR/$ Momentum Bullish 1.3150 Resistance 1.3095 1.3000 Support 1.2930 EUR Sentiment 24 0.9595 0.9500 0.9440 CHF 31 101.30 100.45 99.95 1.5245 1.5160 1.5105 JPY 29 132.20 130.20 129.95 GBP 38 0.8610 0.8545 0.8530 AUD 20 1.2460 1.2420 1.2380 NZD 27 0.9700 0.9580 0.9525 0.8160 0.8000 0.7960 CAD 19 1.0345 1.0260 1.0220 $ INDEX 68 $/CHF Bearish 0.9655 $/JPY Bearish 101.95 GBP/$ Bullish 1.5305 EUR/JPY Bullish 133.00 EUR/GBP Bullish 0.8640 EUR/CHF Bearish 1.2500 AUD/$ Oversold 0.9750 NZD/$ Bullish 0.8215 $/CAD Overbought 1.0390

    *Other indications, backtest statistics, and momentum readings available on TRENDS, an online Technical Strategy tool on Barclays Live. Most recently changed momentum signals are underlined.

    31 May 2013

    Barclays | Global Daily FX Technical Analysis and Strategy

    FX AT A GLANCE
    FIGURE 5 Currency Pair View

    EUR/USD

    The overthrow of 1.3000 occurred in line with our view though the pace of the rise was unexpected. As such, we are now looking to buy dips in the short term, allowing for an extension higher through a trendline at 1.3090. Thereafter, daily momentum is likely to become overbought and gains more difficult in the making (would look for a pullback against 1.3150). Short term, support is at 1.2975. A Pennant formation is unfolding though for this pattern to complete and to suggest a stronger moves between 100 and 101.95 with a marginal bias to sell rallies. The upside squeeze and warnings from volume highlighted in the Daily FX Technical Volume Strategy publication suggest further gains towards 1.5305/25. Thereafter, we would look for the larger range highs near 1.5410/50 to cap and for a turn back towards important support at 1.5000. The downside is unfolding in line with our view and we expect a test of 0.9500 before looking for a bounce. Near term, bearish pressure remains while below 0.9595. In a worst case scenario, we cannot rule out profit taking towards 0.9400/0.9380. We were wrong in assuming follow through to the downside. However, a strong bullish signal is lacking and overall, we prefer selling rallies against 133.85 (given a Key Bearish Reversal Week completed a week ago). A break below 130.00 is needed to adopt a stronger bearish bias. We expect sterling outperformance in the short term. The market has repeatedly been unable to break through daily cloud resistance at 0.8610 and risks are increasing for a top and return to 0.8460. The neckline of a topping pattern is at 1.2420. We are modestly bearish, expecting a test of this level below 1.2500. We are changing our short term view given bullish divergence warnings and overly stretched bearish of the 0.9800 handle before the greater bear trend can resume. Below 0.9530, we are wrong.

    USD/JPY upside move, in the least, we prefer to see a recovery above 101.95. Until then, the risk is for choppy

    GBP/USD

    USD/CHF

    EUR/JPY

    EUR/GBP

    EUR/CHF though a break lower would warn of a deeper setback to 1.2340/80. Bearish pressure remains while

    AUD/USD sentiment (DSI readings on Fig 3). Near term, 0.9700/05 is vulnerable, above which we expect a test

    NZD/USD of short covering for a test of 0.8260. The weekly cloud base at 0.7960 should hold firm.

    NZD/USD is trying to form a base above 0.8000. A break above 0.8165 is needed to confirm a bout

    USD/CAD range highs held firm near 1.0425. We expect a test of 1.0260 before looking for a base. Bigger

    Signs of a USD pullback are likely to weigh on USD/CAD in the short term, especially as long term picture, we are bullish though are patiently awaiting a decisive break above 1.0450 for a strong sign.

    Note: *Colour legend for short-term trend bias/arrows: Bullish, Bearish, Neutral

    31 May 2013

    You might also like