HT Media, 1Q FY 2014

1QFY2014 Result Update | Media
July 22, 2014
HT Media
Performance Highlights
Quarterly Data (Consolidated)
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA OPM (%) Reported PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
1QFY13 490 67 13.6 41 % yoy 10.4 16.6 77bp 16.8 4QFY14 501 72 14.3 40 %qoq 8.1 8.7 8bp 18.5
`95 `117
12 months
1QFY14 541 78 14.4 47
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Media 2,235 (643) 0.6 124/82 54,312 2 20,159 6,032 HTML.BO HTML@IN
For 1QFY2013, HT Medias top-line performance was better than our expectation, growing by 10% yoy to `541cr largely driven by a 10% yoy growth in advertising revenue to `410cr. Circulation revenue also registered a strong growth of 16% yoy to `61cr, mainly driven by higher realization per copy. On the operating front, OPM expanded by 77bp yoy to 14.4%. Consequently, profit grew by 17% yoy to `47cr. Volume driven ad revenue growth: After sluggish growth in the last few quarters, advertising revenue has bounced back to double-digit growth, primarily driven by volume growth. Strong performance in the Mumbai region with 25% yoy growth in advertising revenues (driven by local advertising) and 7% yoy growth in Delhis advertising revenues led to an 8% yoy growth in English ad revenues to `277cr. Meanwhile, HT Medias Hindi print business subsidiary - HMVLs ad revenue grew by 14% yoy to `133cr on account of increase in advertising volumes. The Management has indicated at a shift in focus from volume driven to yield driven ad growth. Robust growth in digital and radio business: Revenue from the Radio segment registered a strong growth of 15% yoy to `21cr while the digital business grew by 41% yoy to `17cr (on back of strong yoy growth in shine.com, HT Campus and HT Mobile). At the EBIT level, Radio contributed `3.6cr compared to `1.5cr in 1QFY2013. However, the digital business, which continues to be in losses, reported an increase in EBIT level losses from `12cr in 1QFY2013 to `17cr for the quarter under review (due to expenses incurred on advertising campaign for shine.com). Outlook and valuation: At the current market price, HT Media is trading cheaply at 10.3x FY2015E consolidated EPS of `9.3. We maintain Buy on the stock with a target price of `117, based on 12.5x FY2015E EPS. Downside risks to our estimates include 1) a sharp rise in newsprint prices in INR terms, and 2) higher-than-expected losses/increase in the breakeven period of emerging editions and digital business. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit (Adj.) % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 69.0 5.7 15.3 10.1
Abs. (%) Sensex HTML
3m 6.0 (2.8)
1yr 17.5 5.0
3yr 11.3 (41.7)
FY2012
FY2013E
FY2014E
FY2015E
2,003 12.8 165 (8.6) 14.3 7.0 13.5 1.5 12.0 10.8 1.0 7.6
2,048 2.3 168 1.3 13.8 7.1 13.3 1.4 11.0 9.5 0.9 6.2
2,205 7.6 195 16.4 15.1 8.3 11.5 1.3 11.6 10.1 0.8 5.1
2,380 8.0 218 11.6 15.6 9.3 10.3 1.1 11.6 10.8 0.6 4.0
Amit Patil 022-39357800 Ext: 6839 amit.patil@angelbroking.com
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
HT Media | 1QFY2014 Result Update
Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales Consumption of RM (% of Sales) Staff Costs (% of Sales) Other Expenses (% of Sales) Total Expenditure Operating Profit OPM Interest Depreciation Other Income PBT (excl. Ext Items) Ext Income/(Expense) PBT (incl. Ext Items) (% of Sales) Provision for Taxation (% of PBT) Recurring PAT PATM Minority Interest Reported PAT Equity shares (cr) EPS (`)
1QFY14 541 176 32.5 106 19.5 182 33.6 463 78 14.4 14 22 28 70 0 70 12.9 18 26.2 52 10 4 47 24 2.0
1QFY13 490 178 36.3 92 18.7 154 31.4 423 67 13.6 10 22 21 55 0 55 11.3 13 23.2 43 9 2 41 24 1.7
% yoy 10.4 (1.2) 15.1 18.3 9.4 16.6 33.2 (0.7) 31.7 26.1 26.1 42.8 21.1
4QFY13 501 165 32.9 99 19.8 165 32.9 429 72 14.3 14 23 25 60 0 60 11.9 17 27.9 43 9 3
% qoq 8.1 6.6 6.6 10.2 8.0 8.7 1.6 (5.8) 11.7 17.2 17.2 10.1 19.9
FY2013 2,048 724 35.4 392 19.1 649 31.7 1,766 283 13.8 45 91 94 240 0 240 11.7 62 25.9 178 9 10
FY2012 2,003 724 36.2 356 17.8 635 31.7 1,714 287 14.3 36 92 75 234 0 234 11.7 63 26.7 172 9 6 165 24 7.0
% chg 2.3 0.1 10.1 2.3 3.0 (1.4) 23.1 (0.2) 24.3 2.6 2.6 (0.4) 3.7
16.8 16.8
40 24 1.7
18.5 18.5
168 24 7.1
1.4 1.4
July 22, 2014
Double digit top-line growth driven by healthy ad growth

HT Medias top-line performance was better than our expectations, growing by 10.4% yoy to `541cr largely driven by 10% yoy growth in advertising revenues to `410cr. After sluggish growth in the last few quarters, advertising revenue has bounced back to double-digit growth, primarily driven by volume growth.
Exhibit 2: Top-line growth trend

560 550 540 530 520 510 500 490 480 470 460 450 23 4 13 13 4 6 (1) 1 25 10 20 15
(` cr)
5 0 495 489 524 493 490 511 547 501 541 (5)
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
Consolidated Top-line
yoy growth (RHS)
Strong performance in the Mumbai region with a 25% yoy growth in advertising revenues (driven by local advertising) and 7% yoy growth in Delhis advertising revenues led to an 8% yoy growth in English ad revenues to `277cr. Meanwhile, HT Medias Hindi print business subsidiary - HMVLs ad revenue grew by 14% yoy to `133cr on account of increase in advertising volumes. The Management has indicated at a shift in focus from volume driven to yield driven ad growth.
Exhibit 3: English advertising revenue

400 300
(` cr)
18 11 8 (15) (7) (3) (3) 3 8 20 15 10 5 0 (5)
Exhibit 4: Hindi advertising revenue

150 120
(` cr)
15 23 9 22 6 2 15 (3) 14 25 20 15 10
90 60 30 110 113 102 114 117 115 118 111 133
1Q14
200 100 0 274 256 305 260 256 249 297 267 277
(%)
5 0 (5)
(10) (15) (20)
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
Ad revenue (LHS)
yoy growth (RHS)
Ad revenue (LHS)
yoy growth (RHS)
July 22, 2014
1Q14
(%)
(%)
10
Circulation revenue also registered a strong growth of 16% yoy to `61cr, mainly driven by higher realization per copy. In terms of other segments, revenues from the Radio segment registered a strong growth of 15% yoy to `21cr while digital business grew by 41% yoy to `17cr (on back of strong growth in shine.com, HT Campus and HT Mobile). At the EBIT level, Radio contributed `3.6cr compared to `1.5cr in 1QFY2013. However, the digital business which continues to be in losses, reported an increase in EBIT level loss from `12cr in 1QFY2013 to `17cr in the quarter under review (due to expenses incurred on advertising campaign for shine.com).
Exhibit 5: Consolidated advertising revenue

500 400
(` cr)
20 15 17 12 10 2 3 (3) (1) 1 5 10 10
Exhibit 6: Circulation revenue

70 60 50
( ` cr)
25 20
21 7 4 3 8 11 12 19 16
300 200 100 -
(%)
30 20 10 -
10 5
384
369
407
374
373
364
415
378
410
(5)
49
1Q12
51
2Q12
50
3Q12
48
4Q12
53
1Q13
56
2Q13
57
3Q13
57
4Q13
61
1Q14
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
Ad revenue (LHS)
yoy growth (RHS)
Circ. revenue (LHS)
yoy growth (RHS)
Exhibit 7: Gross Margin & OPM

80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0
65.1 62.7 64.6 63.0 63.7 61.8 65.9 67.1 67.5
Exhibit 8: Net profit in-line with our estimates

50 40 30 20 10 51 44 48 5 22 41 33 54 40 47 11 10 9 9 7 12 10 10 9 10 8 6 4 2
( ` cr)
(%)
30.0 20.0 10.0 -
18.2
14.4
14.9
9.8
13.6
11.1
16.0
14.3
14.4
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
OPM
Gross margins
Recurring PAT (LHS)
NPM (RHS)
Gross Margin and OPM expand yoy

The fall in newsprint costs by 3% yoy (driven by cutback in excess circulation in few markets and pagination efficiency), led to a 381bp yoy expansion in gross margin to 67.5%. However, an 18% yoy increase in other expenses to `182cr (due to increase in advertising and sales promotion) and 15% yoy increase in employee cost to `106cr limited EBITDA growth to 17% yoy to `78cr. Consequently, OPM expanded by 77bp yoy to 14.3% and net profit grew by 17% yoy to `47cr.
July 22, 2014
1Q14
(%)
40.0
(%)
40
15
Investment rationale
Margin pressure to ease as ad revenue picks up: HT Medias recent underperformance can be attributed to OPM pressure on account of losses in digital business and emerging markets, higher newsprint costs and cyclical nature of ad revenue growth (sluggish due to slower GDP growth). The company has undertaken measures such as cutback in excess circulation and pagination efficiency to improve its margin. The company is also divesting its entire 51% stake in HT Burda which has been making losses. The Management has also indicated at a shift in focus from volume driven to yield driven advertising growth. Going forward, we believe yield driven advertising growth and upcoming elections will aid the company to maintain double-digit advertising revenue growth and improve its margin to ~15% in FY2014.
Outlook and valuation

At the current market price, HT Media is trading at 10.3x FY2015E consolidated EPS of `9.3. We maintain Buy on the stock with a target price of `117, based on 12.5x FY2015E EPS. Downside risks to our estimates include 1) a sharp rise in newsprint prices in INR terms, and 2) higher-than-expected losses/increase in the breakeven period of emerging editions and digital business.
July 22, 2014
Exhibit 9: Peer valuation

Company HT Media Jagran DB Corp Reco Buy Buy Accum. Mcap (` cr) 2235 2886 5070 CMP (`) 95 91 277 TP (`) 117 119 302 Upside (%) 23 30 9 P/E (x) FY14E 11.5 14.2 19.0 FY15E 10.3 11.8 16.0 EV/Sales (x) FY14E 0.6 1.8 2.7 FY15E 0.5 1.6 2.4 RoE (%) FY14E 11.6 21.0 23.9 FY15E 11.6 23.1 24.2 CAGR # Sales 7.8 9.4 11.2 PAT 14.0 20.4
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:^ denotes consensus data, #denotes CAGR for FY2013-15E
Exhibit 10: Angel vs. consensus estimates

Top-line (` cr) Angel estimates Consensus Diff (%)
FY2014E 2205 2197 0.3
FY2015E 2380 2391 (0.5)
EPS (`) Angel estimates Consensus Diff (%)
FY2014E 8.3 8.3 0.0
FY2015E 9.3 9.7 (4.5)
Exhibit 11: Return of HT Media vs. Sensex

250% 230% 210% 190% 170% 150% 130% 110% 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% -10% Sensex HT Media
Exhibit 12: One-year forward P/E band

200 150 100 50 0
Apr-10
9x 12x 15x 18x
Feb-11
Feb-12
Dec-10
Dec-11
Aug-10
Aug-11
Aug-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Jun-11
Jun-10
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jun-12
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-13
Share Price (`)
Jun-11
Jun-10
Jun-12
Aug-12
Aug-10
Aug-11
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Feb-11
Feb-12
Dec-10
Dec-11
Source: Company, Angel research
Source: Company, Angel research
Company Background
HT Media is the second largest print media company in terms of readership/circulation and the largest listed print media company in terms of revenue. The company's two key offerings, Hindustan Times and Hindustan, feature in the top five newspapers in their respective categories in terms of readership. The company is a market leader in Delhi (Hindustan Times), Bihar and Jharkhand (Hindustan) and has emerged as a strong contender in the financial daily segment (Mint).
July 22, 2014
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Apr-11
Apr-12
Profit and Loss Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Gross sales Less: Excise duty Net Sales Total operating income % chg Total Expenditure Cost of Materials Personnel Others (include SG&A) EBITDA % chg (% of Net Sales) Depreciation& Amortization EBIT % chg (% of Net Sales) Interest & other Charges Other Income (% of PBT) Share in profit of Associates Recurring PBT % chg Pr Period & Extr. Exp/(Inc.) PBT (reported) Tax (% of PBT) PAT (reported) Add: Share of earnings of assoc. Less: Minority interest (MI) PAT after MI (reported) ADJ. PAT % chg (% of Net Sales) Basic EPS (`) Fully Diluted EPS (`) % chg FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E 1,413 1,413 1,413 4.9 1,163 515 252 396 250 184.4 17.7 71 179 839.6 12.7 30 41 21.5 191 860.7 2 188 54 28.2 135 (1) 136 138 589.8 9.8 5.9 5.9 589.8 1,776 1,776 1,776 25.7 1,444 666 301 477 332 32.9 18.7 84 248 38.3 14.0 25 34 13.2 257 35.0 257 71 27.7 186 5 181 181 31.1 10.2 7.7 7.7 31.1 2,003 2,003 2,003 12.8 1,716 781 356 579 287 (13.6) 14.3 92 195 (21.2) 9.8 36 75 32.1 234 (9.0) 234 63 26.7 172 6 165 165 (8.6) 8.3 7.0 7.0 (8.6) 2,048 2,048 2,048 2.3 1,766 724 392 650 283 (1.5) 13.8 91 191 (2.2) 9.3 45 94 39.0 240 2.7 240 62 25.9 178 10 168 168 1.3 8.2 7.1 7.1 1.3 2,205 2,205 2,205 7.6 1,872 880 397 595 333 17.7 15.1 108 224 17.4 10.2 39 85 31.3 270 12.4 270 70 25.9 200 5 195 195 16.4 8.9 8.3 8.3 16.4 2,380 2,380 2,380 8.0 2,009 938 428 642 371 11.6 15.6 113 258 15.3 10.9 35 95 29.7 318 17.8 318 95 30.0 223 5 218 218 11.6 9.1 9.3 9.3 11.6
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
July 22, 2014
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Preference Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Minority Interest Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Other long term liabilities Long term provisions Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Net Block (incl WIP) Goodwill Investments Long-term loans and adv. Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 671 109 200 362 576 95 2 1,413 1,033 322 712 129 841 475 1,213 408 805 10 815 759 60 757 109 185 464 614 144 7 1,726 1,284 497 787 19 806 832 62 866 157 189 520 626 239 23 1,901 1,401 589 812 28 840 6 973 79 955 152 231 573 663 292 30 2,141 1,505 697 808 36 844 6 963 85 1,147 171 250 726 691 456 30 2,299 1,566 810 756 38 794 6 1,063 85 1,316 267 277 772 734 582 30 2,475 1,413 47 0 924 971 22 402 18 47 1,255 1,302 130 297 (9) 2 3 1,726 47 1,400 1,447 136 346 (35) 2 4 1,901 47 1,549 1,596 144 383 (3) 20 1 2,141 47 1,732 1,779 149 353 (3) 20 1 2,299 47 1,938 1,985 154 318 (3) 20 1 2,475 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
July 22, 2014
Cashflow (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation Change in WC Interest / Dividend (Net) Direct taxes paid Others Cash Flow from Operations (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments Cash Flow from Investing Issue of Equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) Interest / Dividend (Net) Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances FY2010 188 71 66 15 41 (6) 293 (144) (133) (277) (2) 31 8 (1) 22 38 71 109 FY2011 257 84 (46) (7) 52 0 237 (77) (240) (318) 185 (88) 10 7 81 0 109 109 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E 234 92 (32) (28) 115 0 151 (76) (109) (185) 0 65 11 (29) 83 49 109 157 240 91 12 (42) 62 0 239 (125) (186) (311) 0 36 12 (42) 66 (5) 157 152 270 108 (147) (34) 70 0 128 (112) 12 (101) 0 (30) 12 (34) (8) 19 152 171 318 113 (27) (48) 95 0 261 (63) (102) (165) 0 (35) 12 (48) 0 96 171 267
July 22, 2014
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post-tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) RoCE Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Net WC (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net Debt to equity Net Debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (0.2) (0.7) 6.1 (0.4) (1.7) 10.0 (0.4) (2.2) 5.4 (0.5) (2.6) 4.3 (0.4) (2.3) 5.8 (0.5) (2.7) 7.4 1.4 31 63 142 (4) 1.5 30 53 117 7 1.6 33 50 110 14 1.5 29 48 114 25 1.5 35 61 111 47 1.5 35 61 109 48 13.5 15.5 15.2 15.8 21.0 15.9 10.8 15.8 12.0 9.5 13.9 11.0 10.1 14.3 11.6 10.8 15.8 11.6 12.7 0.7 1.7 15.3 0.1 (0.1) 13.8 14.0 0.7 2.1 21.3 0.1 (0.3) 14.6 9.8 0.7 2.3 16.2 0.1 (0.4) 9.1 9.3 0.7 2.1 14.7 0.1 (0.5) 8.1 10.2 0.7 2.0 15.3 0.1 (0.5) 8.4 10.9 0.7 2.1 15.7 0.1 (0.5) 8.3 5.9 5.9 8.9 0.4 41.3 7.7 7.7 11.3 0.4 55.4 7.0 7.0 10.9 0.4 61.6 7.1 7.1 11.0 0.4 67.9 8.3 8.3 12.9 0.4 75.7 9.3 9.3 14.1 0.4 84.4 16.2 10.7 2.3 0.4 1.8 10.1 1.8 12.4 8.4 1.7 0.4 1.0 5.3 1.0 13.5 8.7 1.5 0.4 1.0 6.6 1.0 13.3 8.6 1.4 0.4 0.9 6.2 0.8 11.5 7.4 1.3 0.4 0.8 5.1 0.7 10.3 6.8 1.1 0.4 0.6 4.0 0.6 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
July 22, 2014
10
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
HTML No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
July 22, 2014
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1QFY2014 Result Update | Media

July 22, 2014

1QFY14 541 78 14.4 47

Abs. (%) Sensex HTML

1yr 17.5 5.0

3yr 11.3 (41.7)

Amit Patil 022-39357800 Ext: 6839 amit.patil@angelbroking.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report