Result Update

May 17, 2013

Rating matrix
Rating Target Target Period Potential Upside : : : : Hold | 10 12-15 months 8%

GVK Power (GVKPOW)

WHATS CHANGED
FY15E 6,740.5 2,813.2 248.5 1.6

| 9.25

Key Financials
| Crore Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS (|) FY12 2,492 694.1 61.5 0.4 FY13 2,607.7 645.1 (336.0) (2.1) FY14E 4,182.9 1,968.0 9.8 0.1

PRICE TARGET ........................................................................... Changed from | 17 to | 10 EPS (FY14E) ............................................................................. Changed from | 0.5 to | 0.1 EPS (FY14E) ............................................................................................Introduced at | 1.6 RATING ....................................................................................... Changed from Buy to Hold

Near term concerns heighten

GVKs Q4FY13 losses were higher on account of revenue reversal of power plants of | 236.9 crore (| 165.8 crore for earlier quarters), which the company had started recognising at full capacity charges in earlier quarters on the basis of availability of alternative fuels. However, the airport segment reported healthy topline growth led by sequential topline growth of 35.9% to | 472 crore at MIAL on the back of tariff revision by 154%. Furthermore, GVKs Hancock project faced another roadblock as media reports indicated the Australian Government may review the environmental clearances given to the pit-to-port project being developed by the GVK Group. Power sector drags down bottomline GVK reported a loss of | 171 crore in Q4FY13 crore (vs. our estimate of a loss of | 27.2 crore on account of a reversal of power revenues recognised in earlier quarters & interest airport acquisition debt (| 118 crore out of total interest of | 165 crore) continued to eat away PAT. Revenues for Q4FY13 were at | 500.1 crore (I-direct estimate: | 675.4 crore), impacted mainly by revenue reversal of power plants of | 236.9 crore (| 165.8 crore for earlier quarters), at which GVK had started recognising full capacity charges in earlier quarters on the basis of availability of alternative fuels. Consequently, it reported operating losses. Funding at MIAL remains key concern According to GVK, it is still awaiting real estate approval for MIAL as a final leg of approval is pending. It indicated it is looking to sell 2 mn sq feet real estate in MIAL in the first, which we believe will be key support for funding of the project. MIAL reported a sequential topline growth of 35.9% to | 472 crore on the back of tariff revision at MIAL by 154%, However, we believe the delay in monetisation of MIAL real estate would be detrimental to GVK as it would mean a huge funding gap at MIAL. Funding gap; gas unavailability weigh on valuations While valuations at 0.6x P/BV are attractive, the company faces a funding gap at MIAL and transportation verticals, which could weigh on valuations. In our view, the anticipated stake sale in the airport & road division is the need of the hour on concerns over funding gap across airport & transportation verticals. We assign a HOLD recommendation and await further development at MIAL real estate monetisation and Hancock.
Exhibit 1: Financial Performance
(| Crore) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income Reported PAT EPS (|) Q4FY13 500.1 -22.9 -4.6 91.1 165.1 35.0 -171.0 -1.1 Q4FY13E 675.4 272.4 40.3 88.4 186.5 32.0 -27.2 -0.2 Q4FY12 657.6 189.8 28.9 77.7 168.6 35.0 -20.9 -0.1 Q3FY13 648.7 235.9 36.4 89.0 186.5 31.9 -57.0 -0.4 QoQ (Chg %) -22.9 -109.7 -4094 bps 2.4 -11.5 9.8 NM NM YoY (Chg %) -24.0 -112.1 -3345 bps 17.3 -2.1 0.1 NM NM

Valuation summary
P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW RoCE FY12 30.7 25.3 20.8 0.5 1.8 2.1 FY13 (4.6) 26.2 0.6 (10.7) 1.2 FY14E 193.0 8.6 0.6 0.3 5.6 FY15E 7.6 6.3 6.5 0.6 7.3 7.7

Stock data
Market Capitalisation Debt Cash EV 52 week H/L (|) Equity capital Face value DII Holding (%) FII Holding (%) | 1,461 crore | 17,085 crore | 2,081 crore | 16,465 crore 17/9 | 157.9 crore |1 3.6 17.0

Price movement
6,200 5,425 4,650 3,875 3,100 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 Nifty (L.H.S) Price (R.H.S) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 May-13

Analysts name
Deepak Purswani, CFA deepak.purswani@icicisecurities.com Bhupendra Tiwary bhupendra.tiwary@icicisecurities.com

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Segmental performance
Power division Another dismal show

PLF at JP II and Gautami were dismally low at 4% and 8%, respectively, in FY13 as supply from the KG Basin has completely stopped in Q4FY13

The power segment performance continued to remain dismal on account of restricted gas supply. While GAILs partial gas supply for JP I ensured a decent enough PLF of 50% (still lower than 55% in Q3FY13), the PLF at JP II and Gautami were dismally low at 4% and 8%, respectively, in FY13 as supply from the KG Basin has completely stopped in Q4FY13 Apart from low PLF, the pain in the power sector was also accentuated mainly by revenue reversal of a power plant, in which the company had started recognising full capacity charges in earlier quarters on the basis of availability of alternative fuels. The AP Transco has refuted the same. Consequently, GVK has, meanwhile, deferred recognition of revenues and recognised disincentives aggregating to | 236.9 crore (| 165.8 crore for earlier quarters). The company has decided to contest it stating that such a deduction is against the agreement as it has declared the plant available on alternative fuels such as high speed diesel The Alaknanda Power Project is on track and commissioning of all four units is expected to be operational in H2FY14. The project has witnessed a cost escalation and the revised cost now stands at | 4192 crore. The company remains in the process of tying up debt for the incremental cost. Commissioning of the first unit of Goindwal Sahib Project is expected by Q2FY14 and the second unit by Q3FY14

Road division acquisition debt continues to impact bottomline

In the road division, revenues grew 11.8 % YoY to | 65.7 crore in Q4FY13

In the road division, revenues grew 11.8% YoY to | 65.7 crore in Q4FY13. The EBITDA margin came at 70.8%. The PAT continued to remain lower at | 15.9 crore due to additional interest on debt raised by securitisation of JKEL revenues to partly fund the additional stake buy in MIAL
Q4FY13 65.7 46.6 Q4FY12 58.8 40.7 Q3FY13 64.2 46.1 QoQ (Chg %) 2.3 0.9 100.1 YoY (Chg %) 11.8 14.3 50.9

Exhibit 2: Road division performance

| crore Revenue EBITDA

Margin (%)
PAT

70.8%
15.9

69.3%
10.5

71.8%
7.9

Margin (%)

24.2%

17.9%

12.4%

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Airport division MIAL tariff hike boosts performance

The passenger traffic continued to remain muted as traffic increased at MIAL by 2% YoY and declined at BIAL by 0.4% YoY in Q4FY13. For FY13, traffic at both MIAL and BIAL declined 2% YoY & 5.7% YoY, respectively, given the subdued global and Indian economic growth MIAL reported a sequential topline growth of 35.9% to | 472 crore on the back of tariff revision at MIAL by 151.6% while BIAL reported a muted 1.3% sequential rise in topline to | 155 crore. The company also wrote off | 17.5 crore of dues of Kingfisher Airlines at BIAL and | 2.5 crore at MIAL during Q4FY13. The company also paid | 40.7 crore as non-agricultural tax for MIAL Consequently, the bottomline at MIAL grew at 33.5% QoQ despite superior topline growth. The bottomline at BIAL grew 173.4% sequentially to | 58.8 crore in Q4FY13

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Exhibit 3: MIALs performance

Passenger traffic continued to remain muted as traffic increased at MIAL by 2% YoY and declined at BIAL by 0.4% YoY in Q4FY13

| crore Revenue EBITDA

Q4FY13 472.0 122.5

Q4FY12 321.6 103.1

Q3FY13 347.4 114.5

QoQ (Chg %) 35.9 7.0 33.5

YoY (Chg %) 46.8 18.8 69.2

Margin (%)
PAT

26.0
55.7

32.1
32.9

33.0
41.7

Margin (%)

11.8

10.2

12.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 4: BIALs performance

| crore Revenue EBITDA Q4FY13 155.0 78.0 Q4FY12 151.8 107.5 Q3FY13 153.1 79.1 QoQ (Chg %) 1.3 -1.4 173.4 YoY (Chg %) 2.1 -27.5 77.0

Margin (%)
Adj. PAT

50.3
58.8

70.8
33.2

51.7
21.5

Margin (%)

37.9

21.9

14.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 5: Operational highlights of airport division

Q4FY13 299 3.1 Q4FY12 315 3.1 BIAL Q3FY13 300 3.0 QoQ (Chg %) -0.3 0.4 YoY (Chg %) -5.1 -0.6 Q4FY13 670 8.0 Q4FY12 686 7.8 MIAL Q3FY13 674 7.8 QoQ (Chg %) -0.5 1.6 YoY (Chg %) -2.3 2.0

Aircraft Movements per Day Passenger Movements (Mn)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 6: Key Assumptions

FY13 Roads - Traffic growth (%) JKEL Power - PLF (%) JP I JP II Gautami Airports - Passenger growth (%) MIAL BIAL 3.8 60 34 27 -2.0 -5.7 FY14E 5.0 60 5 5 9.3 9.6 FY15E 5.0 60 50 50 7.4 7.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Valuation
We have now incorporated the tariff hike of MIAL in our estimates and also built in minimal PLF at JPII and Gautami on account of gas unavailability. While valuations at 0.6x FY14 P/BV are attractive, the company faces a funding gap at MIAL and transportation verticals, which could weigh on valuations. In our view, the anticipated stake sale in the airport & road division is the need of the hour on concerns over funding gap across airport & transportation verticals. We assign a HOLD recommendation and await further development at MIAL real estate monetisation and Hancock mines.
Exhibit 7: SOTP valuation
We recommend HOLD on the stock with an SOTP based price target of | 10

Basis Power GVK Industries Gautami Goindwal Sahib Alaknanda Transport JKEL Deoli Kota Shivpuri Dewas Airport MIAL-Airport MIAL-Real Estate BIAL-Airport FCFE NAV FCFE FCFE FCFE FCFE FCFE FCFE FCFE FCFE

CoE

Equity Value Stake Value (| (| crore) GVK's stake (%) crore) Per share (|) 1422 897.1 75.0 47.8 75.0 75.0 -57.5 296.7 382.7 275.2 -188.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 626.2 8.7 -823.3 4249.2 50.5 50.5 43.0 227.4 3199.0 822.8 6 0 2 2 2 -1 4 0 -5 27 1 20 5

13.0 13.0 14.0 14.0

-77 621 510 367 -188

12.0 14.0 14.0

626 9 -823 8698

14.0 15.0 14.0

450 6335 1914

Total

9932

4957.8

31

Less: Net Debt

3400.1

22

Target

1557.7

10

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(| Crore) Net Sales Growth (%) Total Operating Expenditure EBITDA Growth (%) Interest Depreciation Other Income PBT Total Tax PAT before MI Minority Interest Profit from Associates Less: Prior Period Items PAT Growth (%) EPS FY12 2,491.8 30.1 1,797.8 694.1 35.0 467.3 248.9 88.9 66.7 67.8 -1.1 43.9 106.4 0.0 61.5 -60.3 0.4 FY13 2,607.7 4.6 1,962.6 645.1 -7.1 707.9 351.2 136.1 -277.9 128.7 -406.6 -19.7 50.9 0.0 -336.0 LP -2.1 FY14E 4,182.9 60.4 2,214.9 1,968.0 205.1 1,159.9 584.3 75.4 299.2 241.3 57.9 78.8 30.7 0.0 9.8 PL 0.1 FY15E 6,740.5 61.1 3,927.2 2,813.2 42.9 1,704.1 915.8 176.9 370.2 110.1 260.1 41.4 29.7 0.0 248.5 2,440.6 1.6

Cash flow statement

(| Crore) Profit after Tax Depreciation Cash Flow before WC changes Net Increase in Current Assets Net Increase in Current Liabilities Net cash flow from op. activities (Purchase)/Sale of Investment (Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets Net Cash flow from Investing Activities Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital Inc / (Dec) in Secured loan Inc / (Dec) in Unsecured loans Net Cash flow from Financing Activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash/Cash Equivalent Closing Cash/ Cash Equivalent FY12 61.5 248.9 310.4 -1,313.1 1,175.6 172.9 369.7 -9,159.4 -7,517.0 0.0 7,745.3 963.7 8,742.2 FY13 -336.0 351.2 15.2 -183.4 2,275.0 2,106.8 -122.5 -4,682.0 -4,579.5 0.0 2,827.8 0.0 2,827.7 FY14E FY15E 9.8 248.5 584.3 915.8 594.1 1,164.3 -1,435.1 -229.2 1,779.5 -31.1 938.6 903.9 0.0 0.0 -1,072.4 -2,364.4 -993.7 -2,323.0 0.0 0.0 1,272.0 -623.7 0.0 0.0 1,272.0 -623.7

1,398.1 354.9 1,216.9 -2,042.8 328.2 1,726.3 2,081.2 3,298.1 1,726.3 2,081.2 3,298.1 1,255.2

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance Sheet
(| Crore) Liabilities Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Debt Deferred Tax Liability Minority Interest Deferred Income Sources of Funds Assets Total Gross Block Less Accumulated Depreciatio Net Block Capital WIP Net Intangible Assets Goodwill on Consolidation Investments Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Other Current Assets Cash Total Current Assets Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Application of funds FY12 157.9 3,323.4 14,257.4 300.8 3,116.8 164.3 21,320.6 6,405.0 1,462.1 4,942.9 9,632.3 970.3 1,161.6 2,132.0 75.4 456.2 1,569.3 228.3 1,726.3 4,055.4 1,573.8 2,481.6 21,320.6 FY13 157.9 2,987.4 17,085.2 330.7 3,318.8 157.3 24,037.3 7,905.0 1,813.3 6,091.7 12,814.3 970.3 1,161.6 2,254.5 97.6 423.3 1,665.8 325.9 2,081.2 4,593.8 3,848.8 744.9 24,037.3 FY14E 157.9 2,997.2 18,357.2 330.7 3,397.6 157.3 25,397.9 17,353.8 2,397.6 14,956.2 4,438.0 970.3 1,161.6 2,254.5 179.9 687.6 2,517.1 563.0 3,298.1 7,245.7 5,628.3 1,617.4 25,397.8 FY15E 157.9 3,245.6 17,733.5 330.7 3,439.0 157.3 25,064.0 24,100.5 3,313.4 20,787.1 55.6 970.3 1,161.6 2,254.5 267.3 923.3 2,201.2 785.1 1,255.2 5,432.1 5,597.2 -165.1 25,064.0

Key ratios
FY12 Per share data (|) EPS Cash EPS BV Operating profit per share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBT / Net Sales PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios (x) Debt / EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio 0.4 2.0 22.0 4.4 FY13 (2.1) 0.1 19.9 4.1 FY14E 0.1 3.8 20.0 12.5 FY15E 1.6 7.4 21.6 17.8

27.9 2.7 2.5 7.8 66.8 62.8 1.8 2.1 3.3 30.7 20.8 5.8 0.8 0.5 20.5 4.1 2.6 1.5

24.7 (10.7) (12.9) 12.1 59.3 111.5 (10.7) 1.2 2.4 26.2 6.5 0.7 0.6 26.5 5.4 1.2 0.7

47.0 7.2 0.2 12.1 60.0 115.0 0.3 5.6 8.0 193.0 8.6 4.1 0.5 0.6 9.3 5.8 1.3 0.7

41.7 5.5 3.7 12.1 50.0 115.0 7.3 7.7 10.4 7.6 6.5 2.7 0.3 0.6 6.3 5.2 1.0 0.7

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Company Description
GVK is a leading Indian conglomerate with diversified interests across various sectors including energy, resources, airports, transportation, hospitality and life sciences. It has over 900 MW operational power plants and around 5000 MW projects under various stages of construction and development. GVK's coal mines at the Tokisud North Sub-Block and Seregarah Block in Jharkhand are being developed to cater to the requirements of Goindwal Sahib Thermal Power Project, Punjab. It is also developing and managing two of the busiest airports at Mumbai and Bengaluru handling 44 million passengers per annum (mppa). It also has road projects of over 2200 lane km under construction and development apart from the 542.4 lane km Jaipur-Kishangarh Expressway under operation. GVK (10% stake along with promoter) has acquired the Hancock Coal Mines in Australia with 8 billion tonne reserves and a capacity of more than 80 million tonne per annum for US$1.26 billion. It will also set up a 500 km rail line and an 80 MTPA port as part of the 'pit-to-port' logistics solution. The project envisages a total investment of US$10 billion.
Exhibit 8: Recommendation History
40 30 20 10 0 May-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Price Nov-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 May-13

Target Price

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 9: Recent Releases

Date 10-May-12 9-Aug-12 25-Sep-12 16-Oct-12 12-Nov-12 15-Feb-13 Event Q4FY12 Result Update Q1FY13 Result Update Event Update Event Update Q2FY13 Result Update Q3FY13 Result Update CMP 12 13 15 14 12 12 Target Price 18 18 18 18 18 17 Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Infrastructure)

Sector / Company GMR Infra (GMRINF) GVK Power (GVKPOW) IRB Infra (IRBINF) JP Associates (JAIASS) Sadbhav Engg. (SADENG) EPS (|) P/E (x) CMP M Cap (|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E 24 20 Hold 9,283 -1.1 -1.5 -0.3 NA NA NA 9 10 Hold 1,461 0.4 -2.1 0.1 30.7 NA 193.0 130 157 Buy 4,304 14.9 16.7 11.6 8.8 7.9 11.3 82 80 Hold 17,681 3.6 4.8 3.0 21.5 15.9 25.7 113 135 Buy 1,696 9.3 5.2 5.9 12.2 22.1 19.3 EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x) RoE (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E 25.7 21.0 10.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 -4.6 -6.6 -1.1 20.8 26.2 8.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.8 -10.7 0.3 7.0 7.0 7.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 17.4 17.1 11.1 12.0 10.9 9.8 1.7 1.3 1.3 8.5 9.4 5.1 7.2 15.6 10.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 18.4 9.3 9.7

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Deepak Purswani CFA, PGDM (FINANCE) Bhupendra Tiwary MBA (FINANCE) research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.

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