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Tuesday, Nov 6, 2007

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CAPITOL FAX
by Rich Miller
Voice 217.529.6811 Fax 312.896.9456 thecapitolfaxblog.com capitolfax@aol.com
MONDAY, November 5, 2007

POLL; DUNKIN; AFSCME; 150; SIEBEN

MAJORITY WOULD RECALL BLAGOJEVICH A new statewide poll shows that, if given the
opportunity, a majority of Illinoisans would vote to recall Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

The poll of 600 registered Illinois voters taken November 1st through the 3rd by the Glengariff Group,
found that 51.9 percent of registered voters said they would vote to recall Blagojevich if Illinois had the
ability to recall an elected official. The state currently has no recall provision in its Constitution, but the
Chicago Tribune touched off a firestorm several days ago with a Sunday editorial that broached the subject.

A majority or a plurality of every demographic, including race, region and party, said they would vote to
recall Blagojevich. Even in Chicago, the margin was 48.2 percent for Blagojevich’s recall and 43.9 percent
against. And 46.7 percent of Democrats said they were for recalling Blagojevich if they had the chance,
while 45.4 percent said they wouldn’t support it.

The Glengariff Group poll also found that support for adding a recall provision to the Constitution has risen
by 7,5 percent since May of this year, when the polling firm last asked the question. According to the poll, a
whopping 65 percent of Illinoisans now favor adding recall to the Constitution, with support rising in every
region of the state.

The survey showed a somewhat higher job approval rating for Blagojevich than two recent polls, which had
him in the high teens to mid twenties. The Glengariff Group poll had the governor’s approval rating at 31.5
percent, with 61.2 percent disapproval. That’s still not good at all, of course, and 42 percent of the state’s
registered voters strongly disapproved of the governor’s performance, which is downright awful.

Just 26.2 percent of Illinoisans believe the state is on the right track, while 65 percent say it’s on the wrong
track. That’s a 13 percent increase in the “wrong track” numbers since May. The poll had a margin of error
of +/- 4 percent.

I’ll post the entire poll, with crosstabs, at the blog later this morning. This week’s subscriber-only blog
password is: CROSS.

RUMBLE IN THE THIRD WARD The nephew of former Chicago Mayor Eugene Sawyer has filed to run
for the Illinois House, which is part of a brewing battle over control of the city’s 3rd Ward.

As the locals tell it, Rep. Ken Dunkin (D-Chicago) supported Pat Dowell earlier this year in her race against
entrenched Ald. Dorothy Tillman. Dunkin has reportedly planned to run for Democratic ward
committeeman since before that aldermanic race.

But after Dowell won, she decided, for whatever reason, to take the committeeman’s spot for herself.
Dunkin didn’t back down, filing to run against her yesterday. And now Dunkin has also found himself with
an opponent for his House seat.

Kenneth Sawyer, the former mayor’s nephew, filed petitions yesterday. Sawyer is the interim committeeman
in the 3rd Ward, elected by the ward’s Democratic precinct captains after Tillman stepped down earlier this
year. He is supporting Dowell for alderman and claims Dowell’s support in return.

There are several other wards in the district, and Dunkin still has the support of 27th Ward Ald. Walter
Burnett, who is allied with Secretary of State Jesse White. Burnett said yesterday that he didn’t think Dunkin
was in much electoral trouble, but Sawyer has hopes of picking up support from some of the other aldermen
in the district, many of whom were elected for the first time last spring and have political alliances with Ald.
Dowell.

There’s also word coming out of the area that Mayor Daley may involve himself in the committeeman’s race
on Dowell’s behalf. Dowell was elected as an independent, but Dunkin angered the mayor earlier this year
when he visited Springfield and attended a meeting with the Black Caucus. Dunkin had some tough words
for Daley, and they’ve reportedly stuck in his craw ever since. It’s not known if that support could spill over
into the House race. This is gonna get interesting.

AFSCME OUT FOR REVENGE? It won’t be official until later this month, but it looks like AFSCME
Council 31 could very well be jumping into at least three state legislative primaries.

It’s long been known that AFSCME’s top target next February is Rep. Annazette Collins (D-Chicago), who
has angered the union over the juvenile justice issue. Yesterday, Eddie Winters filed to run against Collins.
Winters ran for 2nd Ward alderman four years ago.
Just two minutes before Winters filed, another candidate with a familiar last name presented nominating
petitions to the Board of Elections - Chenika Collins, a total unknown. The Collins name is still golden on
the city’s West Side, going back decades to the late Congressman George Collins. That was one factor in
Annazette Collins’ first win. Another big factor was that she, too, played the name game in 2000 when her
political patron, Ald. Ed Smith, found another candidate with the last name of “Pugh” to run against then
state Rep. Coy Pugh in the primary. So, it’s a “turnaround is fair play” game there.

AFSCME has long believed that Collins would be vulnerable next year because Smith is running
countywide for Recorder of Deeds. Smith didn’t obtain the party’s slating for the office, so he’ll have to
work even harder if he hopes to win and he may not have the resources to also defend Collins - or at least
that’s what some folks at AFSCME are hoping for.

Another race where AFSCME appears to be in play is Collins’ Senate district, where Sen. Rickey Hendon
finds himself with two opponents. The union reportedly will back Amy Sue Mertens, who works for the
University of Illinois, Chicago. Hendon has put several opponents up against neighboring House members,
and his friends worry that he may have stretched himself too thin. The third candidate in that race is
Jonathan Singh Bedi.

While there may be more, the third race that AFSCME looks to be in is Sen. Mattie Hunter’s primary.
Hunter lost most of her aldermen in last spring’s city council sweep and one of those new city council
members, 16th Ward Alderman Joann Thompson, is said to be backing Everloyce Faye McCullough against
Sen. Hunter. Another candidate, local real estate businessman and part-time radio host Derek McNeal, is
also in the race.

150 OUT FOR BLOOD Bill Dugan won his reelection race as president of Operating Engineers Union
Local 150 this year by a fairly wide margin, but he still has some scores to settle from what was a bitterly
contested campaign.

Dugan’s race against his own treasurer, Joe Ward, was nasty, brutal and expensive, and also attracted the
attention of political higher-ups. Ward and Dugan hurled several charges and countercharges and the
lawsuits and investigations flew. Dugan has often supported Republican candidates and Gov. Rod
Blagojevich intervened on Ward’s behalf by appointing him to a state commission, which angered Dugan to
no end.

But it was the involvement of two other people that really ticked off Dugan this year. Sen. Terry Link
intervened in the race for Ward as did Rep. Bob Rita. Both men now have primary opponents courtesy of
Dugan.

Link will be up against former North Chicago Mayor Jerry Johnson, who now lives in Great Lakes. Johnson
lost reelection as mayor in 2001 to Bette Thomas, who went on to lose the 2005 race. Johnson scored just 16
percent in that multi-candidate rematch, and Link doesn’t appear too concerned about the upcoming battle,
although he will assuredly be prepared. Link is also the Lake County Democratic Party chairman, building
the organization almost literally from the ground up. Link and Johnson will face off one on one. No other
candidate filed.

Unlike Link, Rep. Rita is facing several primary candidates next February, including Earick Rayburn, who is
said to be backed by Dugan. Rayburn ran and lost for 9th Ward Alderman earlier this year. Other candidates
in the race include Michael Mayden, who has tried before to unseat Rita. A total of six candidates filed in
this district, including Rita.

IN, OUT, IN Several weeks ago, it appeared that the GOP primary race to replace retiring Republican Sen.
Todd Sieben would be a hot one. But then several weeks ago Stephenson County Board Chairman John
Blum announced that he wouldn’t run. Blum was backed by Rep. Jim Sacia, among others. He would’ve
been up against Tim Bivins, who is supported by Rep. Jerry Mitchell. Blum filed to run for county board a
week ago, despite widespread rumors that some people were circulating Senate nominating petitions on his
behalf.

Bivins went ahead with his campaign, and scheduled a fundraiser for tonight with former House Speaker
Denny Hastert. And then late yesterday Blum filed for the Senate seat.

Rep. Sacia said he talked to Blum last night and Blum claimed that as of yesterday morning he had no
intention of running for the Senate. But he was approached by locals who had circulated petitions on his
behalf, and they pleaded with him to make the race. Blum, a commercial airline pilot, then reportedly
jumped into his own private plane and flew to Springfield to file.

Sacia said he hasn’t decided yet what he’ll do. “I have two choices,” Sacia said this morning, “Either stay
neutral or get behind Blum.” Sacia said he couldn’t say he was shocked by the turn of events, “But I’m
surprised. Very surprised.”

Marty Mulcahey, a former House staffer and son of former Rep. Dick Mulcahey, filed as a Democrat in this
race. More on this race, and lots of other primary and general contests, later.

© 2007 BY AHEAD OF OUR TIME PUBLISHING, INC.

- posted by Rich Miller

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