Commodity Weekly Technical Report 06 Jan To 10 Jan.

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R E E K L Y E P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals,

06 JAN 10 JAN 2014
Energy
MAJOR EVENTS
US gold futures recorded a recovery on Thursday from its worst year in more than three decades. A steep decline in the yellow metal prices has prompted the bullion investors to reverse bets. US gold futures for February delivery electronic platform was seen trading with a gain of $20.3 at $1222.6 per troy ounce as of 09.55 IST on Thursday. Short holdings in gold rose 1.1% to a three-week high of 76,052 in futures and options in the week that closed December 24, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. India Gold Futures opened on a positive note and was seen trading up tracking an upward movement in US gold prices on Thursday. Gold futures for February delivery on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was seen trading with a gain of 0.87% at Rs.28665 per 10 grams as of 10.05 IST on Thursday. A list of US data releases is scheduled for the day and traders may try to gather clues for their trading from the data released. US Department of Labor is scheduled to release its weekly data on Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims at 19.00 IST while US Institute of Supply Management is expected to release its PMI at 20.30 IST on Thursday. Crude oil prices saw their biggest drop in nearly 14 months at the NYMEX with oil prices for most active February expiry closed nearly 3% lower yesterday. A slew of positive economic numbers from the US were unable to press-in any kind of optimism into the commodity which was weighed by rise in US Dollar amidst speculation that the US Fed would continue with its monetary tapering. Additional pressure seeped-in by the fact that Libya is planning to open one of its key oil fields over the next two weeks which if happens would nearly double the supply form the country as compared to current levels. By the end of the trading session on Thursday, WTI oil was down around $3 per barrel to close at $95.44 a barrel and marking its biggest single session drop since Nov, 2012. In Libya, oil output still hovers around 250,000 barrels per day (BPD), sharply lower from the near 1.5 BPD during the first half of 2013 as ports in the eastern part of the country remain shut. Recently, its National Oil Corp (NOC) said it plans to restart the El Sharara oilfield and hopes to advance countrys output to near 600,000 BPD after protesters agreed to suspend a strike that has blocked the field since the end of October. Copper futures for February delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was seen trading with a loss of 0.62% at Rs.466.80 per kilogram as of 16.25 IST on Friday. Copper prices in the global market edged lower on Friday amid weak China manufacturing data and hopes on surplus supply of the base metal. Comex copper for March delivery on electronic platform was seen trading with a loss of 0.68% at $3.358 per pound as of 16.48 IST on Friday. China HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing posted at 50.5 in December, unchanged from the earlier flash reading, and down slightly from 50.8 in November, according to the data released by the HSBC Markit on Thursday. Chinese non-manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 54.6 in December, the lowest since August and weak from 56 month-on-month basis, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and Federation of Logistics & Purchasing on Friday. Copper tumbled 7.2% in 2013, falling into a bear territory April, on concerns that global supply would surpass demand and a slowdown in China, world's largest base metal consumer.
US Gold rebounds after its worst year, MCX Gold opens up.
NYMEX Crude Oil witnesses biggest drop in 14 months.
India Copper falls on profit booking, weak cues.
ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
Jan 06 3:30am Jan 06 7:30pm 8:30pm 8:30pm Jan 07 4:00am 7:00pm 8:30pm Jan 08 6:45pm 9:00pm 11:31pm Jan 09 12:30am 1:30am 6:00pm 7:00pm 9:00pm 11:31pm Jan 10 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:30pm Final Services PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Factory Orders m/m Fed Chairman Nomination Vote Trade Balance IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction FOMC Meeting Minutes Consumer Credit m/m Challenger Job Cuts y/y Unemployment Claims Natural Gas Storage 30-y Bond Auction Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m Wholesale Inventories m/m
194K 7.0% 0.2% 0.4% 3.90/2.4 203K 7.0 0.2% 1.4% 334K 13.6B 18.2B -20.6% 339K 2.82/2.6 -40.2B 45.3 199K -40.6B 43.1 215K 56.0 54.6 1.8% 56.0 53.9 -0.9%
DESCRIPTION
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD last week showed bullish movement after taking support from lower band of channel pattern and closed around upper band. Now if it able to maintain above 29150 and if also traded above the upper band of channel pattern then 29600 will act as important resistance. On other hand if it sustain below 29000 then 28700 will act as major support level.
PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 29250 for the targets of 2960030000 with stop loss of 28600.
S1
28690
S2
28080
S3
27400
R1
29650
R2
30110
R3
30680
SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed upward movement, and took bounce back from lower band of falling wedge pattern & face resistance of its important level i.e. 45850. Now, if bullish trend continues and sustain above 45900 then it may find next resistance around 46600. On lower side 44500 will act as support for it below which it may drag towards important support of 42500.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 46000 for targets of 46600-47200, with stop loss of 44500.
PIVOT TABLE S1
44500
S2
43500
S3
42400
R1
45850
R2
46700
R3
47600
CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
Crude oil on its daily chart showed bearish movement, not able to sustain above 23.6% retracement and gave breakout of upward channel pattern on lower side and also closed below the trendline. Now, if it is able to sustain below the trendline then next support level is seen around 5750. On higher side 6110 will act as important resistance.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell on highs for the targets of 5760, with stop loss of 6110.
PIVOT TABLE S1
5860
S2
5710
S3
5570
R1
6020
R2
6170
R3
6350
COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed sideways movement and unable to sustain above 473.50 and took support of lower band of downward channel pattern. Now, if it is able to sustain below 472 then bearishness drag it towards the support level of 456.50. On other hand if it maintains above the resistance range of 475-478 then bulls may become active.
PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 462, with stop loss of 478 for the target of 450.
S1
462.45
S2
456
S3
447.70
R1
474.50
R2
482
R3
492
DISCLAIMER
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Commodity Weekly Technical Report 06 Jan To 10 Jan.

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WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.

R E E K L Y E P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals,

NYMEX Crude Oil witnesses biggest drop in 14 months.

India Copper falls on profit booking, weak cues.

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