Looking historically at whats to come in 2014

Compiled by Rob Kennedy

1-Jan
9-Jan
17-Jan
25-Jan
2-Feb
12-Feb
20-Feb
28-Feb
7-Mar
15-Mar
25-Mar
31-Mar
8-Apr
16-Apr
24-Apr
2-May
10-May
20-May
28-May
5-Jun
13-Jun
21-Jun
29-Jun
5-Jul
15-Jul
23-Jul
31-Jul
8-Aug
16-Aug
26-Aug
1-Sep
9-Sep
17-Sep
25-Sep
3-Oct
9-Oct
19-Oct
27-Oct
4-Nov
12-Nov
22-Nov
30-Nov
8-Dec
16-Dec
24-Dec

2014

82.50

82.00

81.50

81.00

80.50

80.00
2014

79.50

79.00

78.50

78.00

10.10

7.10

4.10

1.10

10.09

7.09

4.09

1.09

10.08

7.08

4.08

1.08

10.07

7.07

4.07

1.07

10.06

7.06

4.06

1.06

10.05

7.05

4.05

1.05

10.04

7.04

4.04

1.04

10.03

7.03

4.03

1.03

10.02

7.02

4.02

1.02

10.01

7.01

4.01

1.01

Decade

Decade

Yearly Returns

1914
1924
1934
1944
1954
1964
1974
1984
1994
2004

-31%
26%
5%
12%
44%
15%
-28%
-4%
2%
3%
4.51%

Significant low
Major higher low and then onto the 1929 top
2nd major higher low after 1932 low onto the 1937 top
major higher low after 1942 low
4th Largest year on the DJIa from 1912 to 2012
Up year start to finish
Major low of the 1973 to 1982 bear market
First major low after 1974 low and onto 1987 top
Consolidation before moving on to the 2000 top
Consolidation before moving on to the 2007 top

HIGHS and LOWS

3/02/1914
20/03/1914

5/02/1934
6/02/1934

4/02/1944

1/01/1954
11/01/1954

1/01/1964
2/01/1964

13/03/1974
14/03/1974

6/01/1984
9/01/1984

24/04/1944

4/04/1994
20/04/1994

14/05/1924
20/05/1924

15/06/1984
24/07/1984

26/07/1934
17/09/1934

23/12/1914
24/12/1914

29/12/1924
31/12/1924

31/01/1994
2/02/1994

22/10/2004
25/10/2004
15/12/1944
29/12/1944

India's sensex from 2003 to 2008 went from 21,000 from 2,900
1924 was the last major low before the 1925 to 1929 bull market ending in the 1929 crash
1953 to 1957 lead to the 1960/61 recession
1993 to 1997 period had a softer landing in 1997 leading on to 2000/01 dot com bubble

30/12/1954
31/12/1954

18/11/1964
20/11/1964

6/12/1974
9/12/1974

1954 was the 4th best year on the DJIA + 44%

28/12/2004
29/12/2004

1/12/2016

1/11/2016

1/10/2016

1/09/2016

1/08/2016

1/07/2016

1/06/2016

1/05/2016

1/04/2016

1/03/2016

1/02/2016

1/01/2016

1/12/2015

1/11/2015

1/10/2015

1/09/2015

1/08/2015

1/07/2015

1/06/2015

1/05/2015

1/04/2015

1/03/2015

1/02/2015

1/01/2015

1/12/2014

1/11/2014

1/10/2014

1/09/2014

1/08/2014

1/07/2014

1/06/2014

1/05/2014

1/04/2014

1/03/2014

1/02/2014

1/01/2014

2014 to 2016

115.00

110.00

105.00

100.00

95.00
2014 to 2016

90.00

85.00

80.00

75.00

110
210
310
410
510
610
710
810
910
1010
1110
1210
111
211
311
411
511
611
711
811
911
1011
1111
1211
112
212
312
412
512
612
712
812
912
1012
1112
1212
113
213
313
413
513
613
713
813
913
1013
1113
1213
114
214
314
414
514
614
714
814
914
1014
1114
1214

DJIA 2010 to 2014

40 Year Cycle
1974

900

1934

115

850
110

800
105

750

100
1934

1974

700

95
650

600

550
1/01/1974

90

1/02/1974 1/03/1974

1/04/1974 1/05/1974

1/06/1974 1/07/1974

1/08/1974

1/09/1974 1/10/1974

1/11/1974 1/12/1974

85
1/01/1934

1/02/1934 1/03/1934

1/04/1934 1/05/1934

1/06/1934 1/07/1934

1/08/1934

1/09/1934 1/10/1934

1/11/1934 1/12/1934

Re Capping the 2010 to 2013 Road Map

110
510
910
111
511
911
112
512
912
113
513
913

11500

110
210
310
410
510
610
710
810
910
1010
1110
1210
111
211
311
411
511
611
711
811
911
1011
1111
1211
112
212
312
412
512
612
712
812
912
1012
1112
1212
113
213
313
413
513
613
713
813
913
1013
1113
1213

Axis Title

10 to 13 Years on Dow Historically from 1920 to 2000

12500
17000

13000

actual 2010 to 2013

15000

12000
actual 2010
to 2013

11000

5400

5200

4400

4200

XJO

5000

4800

4600
XJO

4000

9000

11000
Series1

10500

10000

17000

16000

15000

11500
14000

11000
DJIA predictive

110
210
310
410
510
610
710
810
910
1010
1110
1210
111
211
311
411
511
611
711
811
911
1011
1111
1211
112
212
312
412
512
612
712
812
912
1012
1112
1212
113
213
313
413
513
613
713
813
913
1013
1113
1213

110
210
310
410
510
610
710
810
910
1010
1110
1210
111
211
311
411
511
611
711
811
911
1011
1111
1211
112
212
312
412
512
612
712
812
912
1012
1112
1212
113
213
313
413
513
613
713
813
913
1013
1113
1213

Axis Title

12500

10 to 13 Years on Dow Historically from 1920 to 2000

DJIA actual

5400

4000
29/01/2010

XJO

5200

12000

5000

4800

4600
XJO

4400

4200

29/01/2011
29/01/2012
29/01/2013

13000

DJIA actual

12000

10500

11000

10000
10000

9000

18000

DJIA actual 2010 to 2013

17000

16000

15000

14000

DJIA actual 2010 to 2013

12000

11000

10000

9000
110 310 510 710 910 1110 111 311 511 711 911 1111 112 312 512 712 912 1112 113 313 513 713 913 1113

4000
30/11/2013

31/10/2013

30/09/2013

4600

31/08/2013

31/07/2013

30/06/2013

31/05/2013

30/04/2013

31/03/2013

28/02/2013

31/01/2013

31/12/2012

30/11/2012

31/10/2012

30/09/2012

31/08/2012

31/07/2012

30/06/2012

31/05/2012

30/04/2012

31/03/2012

29/02/2012

31/01/2012

31/12/2011

30/11/2011

31/10/2011

30/09/2011

31/08/2011

31/07/2011

30/06/2011

31/05/2011

30/04/2011

31/03/2011

28/02/2011

31/01/2011

31/12/2010

30/11/2010

31/10/2010

30/09/2010

31/08/2010

31/07/2010

30/06/2010

31/05/2010

30/04/2010

31/03/2010

28/02/2010

29/01/2010

XJO actual 2010 to 2013

5400

5200

5000

4800

XJO actual 2010 to 2013

4400

4200

Individual 4 Years

1924

125

120

115

110

105

1924

100

95

90

85

80
2/01/1924

2/02/1924 2/03/1924

2/04/1924 2/05/1924

2/06/1924 2/07/1924

2/08/1924

2/09/1924 2/10/1924

2/11/1924 2/12/1924

1934
115

110

105

100
1934

95

90

85
1/01/1934

1/02/1934 1/03/1934

1/04/1934 1/05/1934

1/06/1934 1/07/1934

1/08/1934

1/09/1934 1/10/1934

1/11/1934 1/12/1934

1944
155

150

145

1944
140

135

130
3/01/1944

3/02/1944 3/03/1944

3/04/1944 3/05/1944

3/06/1944 3/07/1944

3/08/1944

3/09/1944 3/10/1944

3/11/1944 3/12/1944

1954
400

380

360

340
1954
320

300

280

260
1/01/1954

1/02/1954 1/03/1954

1/04/1954 1/05/1954

1/06/1954 1/07/1954

1/08/1954

1/09/1954 1/10/1954

1/11/1954 1/12/1954

1964
890

870

850

830
1964
810

790

770

750
1/01/1964

1/02/1964 1/03/1964

1/04/1964 1/05/1964

1/06/1964 1/07/1964

1/08/1964

1/09/1964 1/10/1964

1/11/1964 1/12/1964

1974
900

850

800

750

1974

700

650

600

550
1/01/1974

1/02/1974 1/03/1974

1/04/1974 1/05/1974

1/06/1974 1/07/1974

1/08/1974

1/09/1974 1/10/1974

1/11/1974 1/12/1974

1984
1300

1250

1200

1984
1150

1100

1050
3/01/1984

3/02/1984 3/03/1984

3/04/1984 3/05/1984

3/06/1984 3/07/1984

3/08/1984

3/09/1984 3/10/1984

3/11/1984 3/12/1984

1994
4000

3950

3900

3850

3800
1994
3750

3700

3650

3600

3550
3/01/1994

3/02/1994 3/03/1994

3/04/1994 3/05/1994

3/06/1994 3/07/1994

3/08/1994

3/09/1994 3/10/1994

3/11/1994 3/12/1994

2004
10900

10700

10500

10300
2004
10100

9900

9700

9500
2/01/2004

2/02/2004 2/03/2004

2/04/2004 2/05/2004

2/06/2004 2/07/2004

2/08/2004

2/09/2004 2/10/2004

2/11/2004 2/12/2004

Individual 4 to 6 Years

4/12/1926

4/11/1926

4/10/1926

4/09/1926

4/08/1926

4/07/1926

4/06/1926

4/05/1926

4/04/1926

4/03/1926

4/02/1926

4/01/1926

4/12/1925

4/11/1925

4/10/1925

4/09/1925

4/08/1925

4/07/1925

4/06/1925

4/05/1925

4/04/1925

4/03/1925

4/02/1925

4/01/1925

4/12/1924

4/11/1924

4/10/1924

4/09/1924

4/08/1924

4/07/1924

4/06/1924

4/05/1924

4/04/1924

4/03/1924

4/02/1924

4/01/1924

1924 to 1926

170

160

150

140

130

120
1924 to 1926

110

100

90

80

5/12/1936

5/11/1936

5/10/1936

5/09/1936

5/08/1936

5/07/1936

5/06/1936

5/05/1936

5/04/1936

5/03/1936

5/02/1936

5/01/1936

5/12/1935

5/11/1935

5/10/1935

5/09/1935

5/08/1935

5/07/1935

5/06/1935

5/05/1935

5/04/1935

5/03/1935

5/02/1935

5/01/1935

5/12/1934

5/11/1934

5/10/1934

5/09/1934

5/08/1934

5/07/1934

5/06/1934

5/05/1934

5/04/1934

5/03/1934

5/02/1934

5/01/1934

1934 to 1936

180

160

140

1934 to 1936

120

100

80

7/12/1946

7/11/1946

7/10/1946

7/09/1946

7/08/1946

7/07/1946

7/06/1946

7/05/1946

7/04/1946

7/03/1946

7/02/1946

7/01/1946

7/12/1945

7/11/1945

7/10/1945

7/09/1945

7/08/1945

7/07/1945

7/06/1945

7/05/1945

7/04/1945

7/03/1945

7/02/1945

7/01/1945

7/12/1944

7/11/1944

7/10/1944

7/09/1944

7/08/1944

7/07/1944

7/06/1944

7/05/1944

7/04/1944

7/03/1944

7/02/1944

7/01/1944

220

1944 to 1946

210

200

190

180

170
1944 to 1946

160

150

140

130

1/12/1956

1/11/1956

1/10/1956

1/09/1956

1/08/1956

1/07/1956

1/06/1956

1/05/1956

1/04/1956

1/03/1956

1/02/1956

1/01/1956

1/12/1955

1/11/1955

1/10/1955

1/09/1955

1/08/1955

1/07/1955

1/06/1955

1/05/1955

1/04/1955

1/03/1955

1/02/1955

1/01/1955

1/12/1954

1/11/1954

1/10/1954

1/09/1954

1/08/1954

1/07/1954

1/06/1954

1/05/1954

1/04/1954

1/03/1954

1/02/1954

1/01/1954

1954 to 1956

510

460

410

1954 to 1956

360

310

260

3/12/1966

3/11/1966

3/10/1966

3/09/1966

3/08/1966

3/07/1966

3/06/1966

3/05/1966

3/04/1966

3/03/1966

3/02/1966

3/01/1966

3/12/1965

3/11/1965

3/10/1965

3/09/1965

3/08/1965

3/07/1965

3/06/1965

3/05/1965

3/04/1965

3/03/1965

3/02/1965

3/01/1965

3/12/1964

3/11/1964

3/10/1964

3/09/1964

3/08/1964

3/07/1964

3/06/1964

3/05/1964

3/04/1964

3/03/1964

3/02/1964

3/01/1964

1964 to 1966

970

920

870

1964 to 1966

820

770

720

4/12/1976

4/11/1976

4/10/1976

4/09/1976

4/08/1976

4/07/1976

4/06/1976

4/05/1976

4/04/1976

4/03/1976

4/02/1976

4/01/1976

4/12/1975

4/11/1975

4/10/1975

4/09/1975

4/08/1975

4/07/1975

4/06/1975

4/05/1975

4/04/1975

4/03/1975

4/02/1975

4/01/1975

4/12/1974

4/11/1974

4/10/1974

4/09/1974

4/08/1974

4/07/1974

4/06/1974

4/05/1974

4/04/1974

4/03/1974

4/02/1974

4/01/1974

1050

1974 to 1976

1000

950

900

850

800

750
1974 to 1976

700

650

600

550

6/12/1986

6/11/1986

6/10/1986

6/09/1986

6/08/1986

6/07/1986

6/06/1986

6/05/1986

6/04/1986

6/03/1986

6/02/1986

6/01/1986

6/12/1985

6/11/1985

6/10/1985

6/09/1985

6/08/1985

6/07/1985

6/06/1985

6/05/1985

6/04/1985

6/03/1985

6/02/1985

6/01/1985

6/12/1984

6/11/1984

6/10/1984

6/09/1984

6/08/1984

6/07/1984

6/06/1984

6/05/1984

6/04/1984

6/03/1984

6/02/1984

6/01/1984

2000

1984 to 1986

1900

1800

1700

1600

1500

1400
1984 to 1986

1300

1200

1100

1000

7/12/1996

7/11/1996

7/10/1996

7/09/1996

7/08/1996

7/07/1996

7/06/1996

7/05/1996

7/04/1996

7/03/1996

7/02/1996

7/01/1996

7/12/1995

7/11/1995

7/10/1995

7/09/1995

7/08/1995

7/07/1995

7/06/1995

7/05/1995

7/04/1995

7/03/1995

7/02/1995

7/01/1995

7/12/1994

7/11/1994

7/10/1994

7/09/1994

7/08/1994

7/07/1994

7/06/1994

7/05/1994

7/04/1994

7/03/1994

7/02/1994

7/01/1994

6500

1994 to 1996

6000

5500

5000
1994 to 1996

4500

4000

3500

2/12/2006

2/11/2006

2/10/2006

2/09/2006

2/08/2006

2/07/2006

2/06/2006

2/05/2006

2/04/2006

2/03/2006

2/02/2006

2/01/2006

2/12/2005

2/11/2005

2/10/2005

2/09/2005

2/08/2005

2/07/2005

2/06/2005

2/05/2005

2/04/2005

2/03/2005

2/02/2005

2/01/2005

2/12/2004

2/11/2004

2/10/2004

2/09/2004

2/08/2004

2/07/2004

2/06/2004

2/05/2004

2/04/2004

2/03/2004

2/02/2004

2/01/2004

2004 to 206

12500

12000

11500

11000
2004 to 206

10500

10000

9500