The document discusses the annual reconstitution of the Russell equity indexes that occurs at the end of June each year. It summarizes the changes made in the 2004 reconstitution, including the introduction of a provisional index and changes to the reconstitution date and pricing of NASDAQ stocks. It also provides an overview of Northern Trust Global Investments' strategy for managing the reconstitution process, including analyzing anticipated changes, developing a trading strategy, and selecting brokers to execute the strategy. Turnover levels for various Russell indexes in 2004 are shown to be higher than in 2003 for some indexes.
The document discusses the annual reconstitution of the Russell equity indexes that occurs at the end of June each year. It summarizes the changes made in the 2004 reconstitution, including the introduction of a provisional index and changes to the reconstitution date and pricing of NASDAQ stocks. It also provides an overview of Northern Trust Global Investments' strategy for managing the reconstitution process, including analyzing anticipated changes, developing a trading strategy, and selecting brokers to execute the strategy. Turnover levels for various Russell indexes in 2004 are shown to be higher than in 2003 for some indexes.
The document discusses the annual reconstitution of the Russell equity indexes that occurs at the end of June each year. It summarizes the changes made in the 2004 reconstitution, including the introduction of a provisional index and changes to the reconstitution date and pricing of NASDAQ stocks. It also provides an overview of Northern Trust Global Investments' strategy for managing the reconstitution process, including analyzing anticipated changes, developing a trading strategy, and selecting brokers to execute the strategy. Turnover levels for various Russell indexes in 2004 are shown to be higher than in 2003 for some indexes.
The document discusses the annual reconstitution of the Russell equity indexes that occurs at the end of June each year. It summarizes the changes made in the 2004 reconstitution, including the introduction of a provisional index and changes to the reconstitution date and pricing of NASDAQ stocks. It also provides an overview of Northern Trust Global Investments' strategy for managing the reconstitution process, including analyzing anticipated changes, developing a trading strategy, and selecting brokers to execute the strategy. Turnover levels for various Russell indexes in 2004 are shown to be higher than in 2003 for some indexes.
very year at the end of June, The Frank Russell Company
reconstitutes its series of equity indexes. This process typically results in significant changes to both the capi- talization and style indexes. The 2004 reconstitution took place on June 25, the last Friday in June. With more than $350 billion indexed to Russell strategies, this annual trade is a significant event that draws the attention of both index managers and other market participants. Index manager trading alone is estimated to be more than $30 billion. This years reconstitution was larger than in past years due to the increased value of the assets managed to these benchmarks. Additionally, several changes were instituted this year. As in most years, early predictions of the modifications to the index changed as market dynamics made the 2004 reconstitution a constantly evolving process. 2004 Changes This year The Frank Russell Company introduced a provisional index in an attempt to get index managers to rebalance early and reduce the market impact on the effective date. The provisional index was announced on June 14 and reflected all of the changes that would be official on June 25. While the concept behind introducing a provisional index is to provide an available benchmark for those seeking to rebalance early, there was not much of a noticeable impact. This likely was due to the fact that assets managed within fund vehicles, as compared to separate accounts, would still be measured against official benchmarks, which would not reflect changes until the effective date. A second change instituted this year was to hold the reconstitution on the last Friday of June rather than on the last business day of the month. This was done to provide additional time for trade settlement purposes. Finally, the effective prices for NASDAQ stocks were based on the new NASDAQ Closing Cross mechanism. Because NASDAQ is a dealer market, there has never been an effective auction mechanism for determining closing prices. In April 2004, NASDAQ introduced a new closing cross to facilitate the ability of investors to execute at closing prices. Prior to this, there was no way to guarantee an execution of a NASDAQ stock at closing prices, although some broker-dealers provided this as an accommodation for index managers. Based on hourly volume analysis, approxi- mately 30-40% of this years trade, both in listed and NASDAQ stocks, was executed at closing prices. This is indicative of the desire of index managers to limit risk by trading at close to the effective price. Turnover Analysis Capitalization turnover in the large cap core indexes was slightly higher than last year, while turnover in the small cap Russell 2000 index was lower. Within the style indexes, large cap turnover was higher primarily due to the reclassification of GE from 100% growth to predominantly value. 2004 Russell Reconstitution Recap Alexander J. Matturri, Jr. CFA Director, Global Equity Index Quantitative Management Northern Trust Global Investments July 2004
2 Review of Northern Trust Global Investments Reconstitution Strategy In order to successfully manage the reconstitution process, we started reviewing the anticipated changes to the Russell indexes in January, a full six months ahead of the effective date. In addition to constantly reviewing the preliminary list of changes, we analyzed various trading alternatives and the anticipated market impact and transaction costs of each alternative. A key input to this analysis is an understanding of the potential trading patterns of non-index fund market participants such as hedge funds, proprietary trading desks and aggressive active managers. These market participants have been accounting for a much greater portion of the trading associated with the annual rebalancing as they seek to profit from anticipated index fund flows. In order to minimize potential tracking error, index fund managers must trade near the close on the effective date. These other market participants attempt to profit by providing the necessary liquidity needed by the index fund managers. The net effect from these non-index fund market participants is the erosion of index fund investor wealth as they take advantage of short-term supply/demand imbalances. Beginning in March, we interviewed all the major broker-dealers to determine which firms would be able to execute our strategy most effectively. By May we started to formulate our initial trading strategy, and we finalized broker selection and documentation by the end of the first week of June. Our trading strategy was continuously updated until very close to the reconstitution effective date to take into account changing market dynamics. Vital to the review of broker-dealers was a detailed study of our operational needs and those of our clients custodians. The ability of a broker to settle the thousands of transactions involved on time was an important consideration in the selection process. Throughout this review process was an understanding of the investment, legal and administrative risks involved and how to control these risks. Based on this review process we developed a trading strategy that would, within a risk-controlled environment, seek to minimize the wealth erosion that has historically arisen due to reconstitutions. After a detailed analysis of the anticipated changes and the expected market dynamics, the decision was made to enter into principal transactions with certain key brokers. In these transactions, the broker guaranteed the closing price of stocks that needed to be traded, net of any commissions, with a profit split on any outperformance accruing to our funds. This approach provided us with no market risk yet the opportunity to profit from any outperformance associated with their trading activity. Given the potential risks, we felt this more conservative approach was prudent this year. As has been our approach during the past few reconsti- tutions, we decided not to use internal crossing as an integral part of the implementation strategy. We believe that for information-based trades such as the Russell reconstitution, trading in the open market rather than crossing provides the optimal solution. In these exposed or information-based trades, crossing (which can result in buying at the expected high and selling at the expected low) is not always in our clients best interests. By splitting the sells and the buys one can try to achieve the best possible execution price for all investors. A variation to direct agency trading in the market is to utilize a broker-dealers ability to execute the trade in a principal capacity. In this situation, the broker guarantees, at a mini- mum, the close net of commissions with our funds retaining a majority of any outperformance relative to the close. The broker has an incentive to execute better than the close due to its participation in the profit split. By using a principal trade, we are guaranteed an execution no worse than a cross while retaining the ability to outperform. Our analysis of the market environment determined that demand by non-index managers would be a significant portion of this years trading once again. In addition, we expected that much of the trading was going to be concen- trated on the last day and more precisely, in the last few hours prior to the close on June 25. The rationale for this view included the performance patterns of last years trades (when those who rebalanced early were penalized) and this years volume trends through mid-June, which indicated muted rebalancing activity. 2004 Russell Reconstitution One-Way Turnover 2004 2003 Russell 3000 2.8% 2.1% Russell 1000 2.9% 2.6% Russell 1000 Value 13.3% 10.2% Russell 1000 Growth 13.5% 9.6% Russell 2000 18.8% 19.8% Russell 2000 Value 28.6% 34.8% Russell 2000 Growth 32.2% 36.7% Source: Goldman Sachs
3 Changes to the Russell 1000 & Russell 2000 Indexes 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 New Additions to R1000 16 7 21 24 76 New Additions to R2000 308 282 378 495 545 Deletions from R2000 205 180 222 276 322 R1000 to R2000 67 83 105 110 139 R2000 to R1000 67 94 136 151 118 Source: Lehman Brothers & Goldman Sachs Index Construction Methodology The Russell indexes are capitalization-weighted equity indexes covering approximately 98% of the investable market cap in the United States. At the time of the annual reconstitution, all the stocks in the Frank Russell universe are ranked by market capitalization using the May 31 cutoff date. The largest 1000 companies become the Russell 1000 index while the next 2000 companies comprise the Russell 2000 index. The combined list makes up the Russell 3000 index. The Russell style indexes are also reconstituted at the end of June, using a proprietary methodology. Each capitalization index is divided into a growth and a value style index. At the time of the reconstitution, approximately 50% of the capi- talization weight of each index is assigned to a style index. Approximately 30% of the companies in each capitalization index are represented in both style indexes, while the remaining 70% are represented in one or the other style index, but not both. Companies are deemed to be either growth or value based on their adjusted price-to-book ratio and their long-term earnings growth rate as determined by I/B/E/S. This process contrasts with the methodology used by Standard & Poors which bases its style determination strictly on price-to-book and uses a mutually exclusive policy which places a company in one or the other index, but not both. Review of Index Changes As of the June 25 effective date there were 16 new direct additions to the Russell 1000 index and 67 companies migrating up from the Russell 2000 index. This compares to 2002 when there were only seven new additions and 94 issues migrating up from the Russell 2000 index. Sector Profiles Within the large cap core and style indexes there werent any major shifts in sector weightings from our earlier forecast. In the large cap indexes, the Financial Services sector continues to be the largest weight in the Russell 1000 index and Russell 1000 Value index at 22.52% and 33.64%, respectively. The Consumer Staples sector had the largest drop in the core index, dropping 0.22%, while the Producer Durables sector had the greatest increase at 0.15%. In the Russell 1000 Value index, the Other sector was up the most (+5.08%) while Financial Services had the largest decline (-1.42%). The increase in the Other sector can be attributed primarily to the reassignment of General Electric (which is classified in Other), from 100% growth to predominantly value. The reverse took place in the Russell 1000 Growth index as Other declined the most (-4.98%) in response to this move. The General Electric weighting was spread across the other sectors of the Russell 1000 Growth index with the Consumer Discretionary sector gaining the most (+1.61%). The Health Care sector contin- ues to be the largest weighting in the large cap growth index at 24.31%. Changes from our preliminary analysis of the small capitalization indexes, while greater than in the large cap indexes, were still generally close to our original projections. Similar to the large cap indexes, the Financial Services sector will continue to be the largest weight, accounting for 22.54% of the Russell 2000 index and 33.89% of the Russell 2000 Value index. The increase in weighting for Financial Services in both the Russell 2000 index (+0.89%) and Russell 2000 Value index (+3.06%) was the greatest for each index. Within the core index, the Producer Durables sector declined the most (-0.69%) while in the Russell 2000 Value index, Producer Durables (-2.57%) and Consumer Discretionary (-2.29%) were the largest decreases. In the Russell 2000 Growth index, Consumer Discretionary increased the most (+1.75%) while Health Care decreased the most (-1.62%). Consumer Discretionary will now be the largest weight in the small capitalization growth index at 22.67%, overtaking Health Care, which will account for 21.38%.
5 Performance Review of the 2004 Reconstitution Trade The 2004 Reconstitution trade performance was in line with our expectations. During the month of June, performance of the various segments was generally in line with rebalancing flows. The buys went up relative to their benchmark while the sales went down. The big exception was the new additions to the Russell 2000 index. Throughout the full month, the Russell 2000 index additions declined 2.8% relative to the index, with most of the underperformance coming in the last week when they declined 1.6%. Typically, this segment posts positive relative performance as investors need to buy these stocks. This years performance was worse than 2003 when the Russell 2000 index additions were up 1.7% on a relative basis during June. On the large cap side, the 16 stocks making up the Russell 1000 index additions were up 3.1% relative to the index during the last week, and up 8.1% for the full month. The rebalance date saw positive relative performance for the Russell 1000 index additions while the Russell 2000 index additions declined 1.3%. Overall, as previously stated, trading volume was light as market participants waited until very close to the effective date to rebalance. Intra-Day Performance June 25 Last years reconstitution was affected by the strong relative performance of smaller capitalization and lower-quality issues. Counter to expectations and historical trends, issues being dropped from the Russell 2000 index in 2003 outperformed the benchmark during the final week (+2.4%) and for the entire month of June (+5.1%). This year a more traditional pattern returned as stocks dropped from the Russell 2000 index declined 3.4% during the month, and 4.1% during the last week. PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO THE RUSSELL 2000 RELATIVE TO THE RUSSELL 1000 Period Year R2 Adds R2 Deletes Adds vs. Deletes R1 Adds R2 to R1 Shifts R1 to R2 Shifts 5/31 to Friday before 2000 14.4% -7.6% 22.0% 14.9% 17.6% 0.2% last week of June 2001 -3.4% -4.9% 1.5% -7.5% 0.1% -8.4% 2002 3.4% -4.4% 7.8% 4.4% 3.4% -9.3% 2003 2.5% 2.0% 0.5% 1.1% -3.6% 3.6% 2004 0.5% -0.6% 1.1% 5.6% -2.6% 0.8% Month of June 2000 19.8% -9.0% 28.8% 20.7% 15.1% -3.7% 2001 -0.4% -10.6% 10.2% 2.3% -0.4% 5.0% 2002 6.5% -13.7% 20.2% 5.2% -0.7% -3.6% 2003 1.7% 5.1% -3.4% 6.1% -3.2% 4.3% 2004 -2.8% -3.4% 0.6% 8.4% 1.6% 0.4% Last week of June 2000 5.4% -1.4% 6.8% 5.8% -2.5% -3.8% 2001 3.3% -5.9% 9.1% 10.9% -0.6% 15.1% 2002 3.0% -9.2% 12.2% 0.6% -2.8% 1.1% 2003 -0.8% 2.4% -3.2% 2.8% 1.3% 0.7% 2004 -1.6% -4.1% 2.5% 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% Rebalance Day 2000 -2.6% 1.1% -3.7% 2.1% 2.6% -6.6% 2001 6.1% -6.8% 12.9% 8.4% -1.8% 9.4% 2002 0.6% -5.7% 6.3% 3.5% -0.2% 2.5% 2003 -0.1% 0.2% -0.3% 2.0% -0.9% 0.0% 2004 -1.3% -2.5% 1.2% 2.3% 2.5% -1.0% Expected Flow Buy Sell Buy Buy Sell Buy Source: Goldman Sachs
Northern Trust Global Investments The Northern Trust Company 50 South LaSalle Street Chicago, Illinois 60675 www.northerntrust.com Q7731 (07/04) Northern Trust Global Investments comprises Northern Trust Investments, N.A., Northern Trust Global Investments (Europe), Ltd., Northern Trust Global Investments Japan, K.K., the investment advisor division of The Northern Trust Company and Northern Trust Global Advisors, Inc. and its subsidiaries to offer investment products and services to personal and institutional markets. This infor- mation has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time without notice. This report is for informational purposes only. To discuss the 2004 Russell Reconstitution or any other investment issue you may have, please contact your Investment Relationship Manager.