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T I I T E O - A P F C T ?: Ourism Ssues and Nsights HE ND of IL Otential Uture Onstraint On Ravel

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TOURISM ISSUES AND INSIGHTS

THE END OF OIL – A POTENTIAL FUTURE


CONSTRAINT ON TRAVEL?

One of the most significant issues facing tourism is the increased costs of energy and
issues of availability. According to the Energy Committee at the Royal Swedish Academy
of Sciences (2005: 1) It is very likely that the world is now entering a challenging period for
energy supply, due to the limited resources and production problems now facing conventional
(easily accessible) oil. Nearly 40 percent of the world’s energy is provided by oil, and over 50
percent of the latter is used in the transport sector. According to the Committee mitigation
measures must be initiated in the next few years in order to secure a continued adequate
supply of liquid fuels, especially for the transport sector. Aviation will be more fuel efficient
in the future as a result of technological innovations but possibilities are limited and although
energy use per person per km will fall the overall predicted increase in the number and dis-
tance of people flying will mean that overall fuel use and amount of emissions will continue
to grow.
However, over the longer term, completely new energy solutions are required given the
decline of cheap oil. Key issues with respect to oil supply are outlined below.

Shortage of oil
The global demand for oil is presently growing by almost 2 percent per year with consump-
tion at the end of 2005 set at 84 million barrels per day (1 barrel  159 liters) or 30 billion
barrels per year. Finding additional supplies is increasingly problematical since most major oil
fields are well matured. Already 54 of the 65 most important oil-producing countries have
declining production and the rate of discoveries of new reserves is less than a third of the
rate of consumption as of the end of 2005.

Reserves of conventional oil


Since 1990 two-thirds of the increases in reserves of conventional oil have been based on
increased estimates of recovery from existing fields and only one-third on discovery of new
fields. A conservative estimate of discovered oil reserves and undiscovered recoverable oil
resources is about 1200 billion barrels, according to the United States Geological Survey;
this includes 300 billion barrels in the world’s, as yet unexplored, sedimentary basins.

The key role of the Middle East


Only in the Middle East and possibly the countries of the former Soviet Union is there
potential (proven reserves of 130 billion barrels) to significantly increase production rates to
compensate for decreasing rates in other countries. As of the end of 2005 Saudi Arabia pro-
vided 9.5 million barrels per day (11 percent of the current global production rate).

Unconventional oil reserves


There are very large hydrocarbon resources, so-called unconventional oil, including gas
(c. 1,000 billion barrels of oil equivalent, much of which could be converted to liquid fuels),
heavy oil and tar sands (c. 800 billion barrels), oil shales (c. 2,700 billion barrels); and coal.
Problems with unconventional resources include long lead times in development, environ-
mental impacts and the availability of water and natural gas for the production process.
Continued

INTRODUCTION 35

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