INTC Barclays
INTC Barclays
INTC Barclays
Volum e
Old: 2-Equal Weight Old: US$ 24.00
100M
Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Time to Revisit; Following a period of significant underperformance relative to both the NASDAQ and the Semi Group, we believe it may
be time to revisit the shares of MPU giant Intel given seemingly solid end market conditions, an upward bias to estimates and an intriguing
valuation at just 12x our CY10 EPS estimate of $1.60 versus a 5-year average of 16x and trough of 11x. We edge our 4Q09 and CY10
estimate upwards and move our rating to 1-OW from 2-EW. We see upside to a target price of at least $24 or just 15x CY10 of $1.60 with
support at $18. Our sector view remains 2-Neutral.
While we recognize end market sell thru may remain a key area of focus for investors, we believe recent weakness in Intel’s shares on
concerns of peaking gross margins and FTC investigations in the graphics arena may be overdone just as core business trends appear to
be improving with potential for a corporate recovery cycle in 2010 to further support end markets. We see an improved overall PC
enviroment, strong product roadmap with Westmere product refresh in 2010, and solid execution positioning Intel to outperform in coming
months after a period of underperformance. We highlight that in the last three months, Intel shares have traded down around 2.7% vs.
th th
NASDAQ composite up around 10.1% in the same period (September 18 – December 18 ).
Expanding Market, Enterprise Cycle May Balance Margin, FTC, AMD Concerns; We recognize that Intel's gross margins are at the
upper end of the cyclical range, and acknowledge a changing competitive landscape with the AMD settlement, the FTC probing the graphics
arena and ARM based offerings targeting the notebook area, however, we consider notebook market growth appears encouraging (recent
checks, reseller, OEM and disti updates) and a potential Enterprise refresh spurred by Nehalem (as suggested by reseller and CIO checks)
may support the server outlook and margins into CY10.
Higher End Estimates Edge Upwards; Near-term, based on recent checks we look for a solid 4Q09 with our estimates edging to +8.5%
$10.2B sales and 62.5% GM and EPS of $0.45 vs consensus of +7.8% or $10.1B and 62% GM and we believe our broadly seasonal -8.6%
1Q revenues and $0.35 EPS vs consensus EPS of $0.33 may still prove conservative depending on holiday sell-thru.
New Products, CES Likely Positive; We believe new releases of Pinetrail for Atom this week, Arrandale and Clarksdake at CES on Jan
7th for notebooks and desktops, (along with Nehalem EX ramp in servers) and results and guidance on Jan 14th may support sentiment.
FTC Issues/Modest SoC Expectations; We consider that the recent FTC case highlighting the Graphics market, may be a lengthy process
and lead to NVIDIA receieving a new license but we believe monetary payments are unlikely. In addition, we consider that SoC progress in
consumer and wireless handsets may be modest in the near to medium term but with encouraging CPU market conditions, generally solid
execution and a valuation at just 12x CY10 and 11x our new CY11 initial estimate of $1.73 we believe the shares may move upwards from
current ranges.
Selective View For Semis For CY10/Product Cycle/Sales Growth Focus; As we look at our Semi group heading into CY10, we consider
that after the dramatic group wide beta move up in CY09 where companies starting the year with weakest margins and balance sheets
offered the most incremental upside, investors may be more selective focusing on companies with strong product cycles and competitive
positioning offering incremental sales growth. With Nehalem and Arrandale, we place Intel in this group along with names such as
Broadcom (1-OW), Cavium (1-OW) and Qualcomm (1-OW). In addition, at just 12x CY10 we consider that Intel offers some more defensive
support should the broader market prove challenging. We see strong support likely around the $18 level, with upside to the $24 to $25
range or 15x to 16x CY10 estimates in line with the 5-year average multiple of 16x.
Laterals, Stay With AMD, MU; In terms of laterals across semis, we have retained our positive view on MPU and graphics challenger AMD
while recognizing upside potential post the recent sharp move upwards may be more limited. We consider AMD may now be poised to see
the structural benefits of the Globalfoundries deconsolidation coupled with the fundamental lift from improved products and solid near term
sales and margin progress. We are using a $10 price target for AMD or around 1.1x CY10 Sales of $5.8B. For Micron (1-OW) in memory we
believe buoyant PC growth coupled with tight supply should underpin a favorable backdrop with improved earnings likely this week on
Tuesday (12/22). For NVIDIA in graphics we clearly see sentiment boosted by the FTC process against Intel. In addition, capacity remains
constrained with Tegra and Tesla offering longer term opportunities, however, at present given limited visibility on Tegra's potential ramp we
maintain our 2-EW rating.
REVISITING INTEL
Improved PC End Market, Semi Vendors Highlight Solid Order Trends to Date in 4Q with Potential Firmer 1Q2010
We believe general trends to date for microprocessor giant Intel remains encouraging for 4Q09 and believe outlook for core computing
remains solid with new Westmere offerings gaining solid interest with around 40 - 60 design wins currently in the mobile space.
During two days of presentations at Barclays Capital Global Technology Conference December 8th and 9th, leading semiconductor players
highlighted solid order trends to date in 4Q09 and some potential for firmer than seasonal 1Q2010 trends given what appears to be
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moderate inventory levels. While 4Q09 sell thru remains key, we remain encouraged by strong consumption data by third party research
firm NPD suggesting solid PC sales through November with total PC units up +51% y/y in November (versus +20% y/y in October) helped
by strong demand for Windows 7. OEM, distributor & semiconductor players continue to describe channel inventory levels as modest.
While risks remain with AMD likely to gain slight share in the notebook arena and gross margins at the upper end of historical range, we
believe our new higher end estimates are achievable. We have edged our estimates for Intel’s 4Q09 to sales of +8.5% at $10.2 billion and
gross margin edging to 62.5% with EPS of at least $0.45 vs. prior EPS of $0.44. Street estimates $0.37 including the payment to AMD of
$1.25 billion.
Solid Execution on 32nm ramp, Nehalem and Improving Enterprise May Potentially Extend Gross Margins
Intel posted solid 3Q results and guided robust 4Q guidance that featured a substantial increase in gross margins to 62% - a level not
reached since 4Q03. While we recognize some investor unease around potentially peaking gross margins with management endorsing a
50% to 60% normal range, solid execution on 32nm ramp with lower costs and improved thru-put, strong traction of Nehalem servers and
potentially improving Enterprise and low inventory levels may extend improved margins.
Intel has delivered solid execution on the “tock-tock” cadence with predictable continued development with 2 year product cycles. Intel is on
track to deliver the next "tick" 32nm Westmere products in 4Q09 and "tock" Sandy Bridge on 32nm in 2010 then on 22nm in 2011.
Management has highlighted that they expect a rapid ramp of 32nm at 1.5x the rate of 45nm production. We believe Intel may benefit from
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lower costs as Intel refreshes it product portfolio with Westmere on 32nm. We see a richer product mix with Westmere which should help
ASPs marginally as Intel launches microprocessors with integrated graphics Arrandale in notebooks and Clarkdale in desktops in 4Q09.
Intel's currently low inventory (at 57 days vs.10 yr historical average of 74 days) should allow Intel to run fabs at least at their current
utilization rates of 80-90% as they aim to build inventory in 4Q supporting margins. We believe 1Q margin may also have the potential to
exceed conservative expectations of 58.6% should sell through remain solid. Costs should also come down as they ramp on 32nm and see
yields and thru put times improve. Intel has indicated that thru-put times have been cut in half transitioning from 45nm to 32nm.
We believe that microprocessor leader Intel is likely to be a key beneficiary of a recovery in enterprise spending as we believe the server
market is likely to favor Intel on solid interest of Intel's Nehalem server offering. While we see solid traction of Nehalem EP, this should be
followed by Westmere EP in the fastest growing 2-socket space in early 2010 and Nehalem EX in the high end in 4Q09. We believe Intel’s
ability to post strong margins at the higher end of historical range despite the lack of Enterprise SKUs is somewhat encouraging. We note
that financial institutions account for about 15% to 20% of server revenues for Intel in our estimates.
110
100
90
Days of Inventory
70
10 year avg 69 days
60
50
40
3Q93
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1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q94
3Q95
1Q96
70%
Ests
-->
60%
Gross
Margins
50%
Average GM
40%
Operating
Margins
30% Average OM
20%
10%
0%
1Q10E
3Q10E
1Q00
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1Q01
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slightly higher capex for CY2010. Management has highlighted the high level of tool re-use moving from 45nm to 32nm with 50-70% of tools
re-used.
Separately, Intel has done an impressive job in managing opex in our view. While further cuts in spending are not expected, spending as a
percent of revenue is expected to continue to decline as revenue grows. Intel's R&D + MGA combined declined from 35.2% in Q109 to
31.8% in Q209 to 29% in Q309 and this is despite the shift of some engineers from cogs into the R&D line during the qualification process.
Intel guided operating expenses (MG&A and R&D) in 4Q to $2.9B (+5% QoQ) due to higher revenue and profit dependant spending
resulting in full year opex of $10.7B. We are encouraged by management’s tight opex control and see MG&A and R&D combined declining
as a percentage of revenue to 29% in 3Q vs. 32% in 2Q despite the Wind River acquisition and expect spending to remain flat as a
percentage of revenue in 4Q. Intel’s operating leverage has resulted in significant improvements in operating margins from 18% in 2Q09 to
27.5% in 3Q. We believe operating margins in the low 30% range in 4Q is achievable.
Cautious Overall Expectations from SoCs in Consumer & Wireless Handheld in Near to Medium Term
In general, however, we retain relatively modest expectations for Intel’s SoC initiatives in the consumer and wireless handheld space in the
near to medium term. We recognize that developing products in areas that may require signal expertise with generally smaller volume runs
with lower average selling prices and lower margins may be somewhat challenging. We do not look for SoCs in the wireless and consumer
to marginally add to lift Intel’s sales and its multiple in the near to medium term.
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Solid Traction on Nehalem Improves Server Outlook
In the Enterprise Server segment, we expect Intel to see uplift from a refresh opportunity. Intel estimates over 12 million servers are over
four years old and the latest Xeon servers with lower power consumption and higher performance may enable IT managers to have recoup
their investments in as little as nine months in some cases. We believe Intel should benefit in terms of both ASPs as well as gross margins
as the Enterprise reinitiates spending on IT in the back half of 2010. We note that rival AMD aims to increase its focus on the fastest
growing 2-socket server market with less competitive positioning in the 4-socket space. At the same time, we would expect Nehalem to
expand its profile in the higher end of the market expanding its share over Sun and IBM in high end systems.
With respect to the Enterprise roadmap, in the high-end Mission Critical market (9000 series), Intel is shipping the 9100 Itanium family
series with the new Tukwila processor based on Boxboro chipset on track for 2010. Beyond that, Tukwila is to be followed by Poulson and
Kittson processor later in 2010/2011.
For the Xeon 7000 series core enterprise space, the 45nm 6 core Dunnington is shipping and the Nehalem EX using the Boxboro chipset
should launch in 1Q2010 aiming to compete at the high end with the likes of Sun and IBM. A 32nm Westmere EX should follow Nehalem
EX. Nehalem EX is a 4 socket platform with 8 cores per processor using 64 threads (2 threads per core), Intel’s scalable memory
interconnect with buffers up to 1 TB memory support, scalable up to 8+ sockets.
In the Efficient performance mid tier area, Tylersberg EP a 45nm Xeon 5500 is shipping with Nehalem EP displaying a very fast ramp with
cross over a month earlier than targeted in July vs. August. We note Intel has seen strength in its dual core Nehalem server processer in 3Q
as reflected in Mercury Research MPU data which shows Intel’s server units up 16% QoQ to gain slight share of 0.6% to 90.6%. Nehalem
EP should transition to the Westmere EP processor in 2010 (refresh of two socket platform with 6 cores and double threading). We highlight
that the Westmere EP is socket compatible.
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some lift in AMD’s overall share. However, at current multiples given solid near term trends for Intel and a steady expansion of the CPU
TAM, we believe concerns are reflected.
In looking at the overall MPU market for CY10, we forecast microprocessor unit shipments to grow 14% year-over-year to 385 million units
led by notebooks up 26% year-over-year to 215 million units. We now model server MPU shipments +14% year-over-year to 14 million units
as we expect some recovery of corporate spending to help in the back half of 2010. We highlight that this is still below 2008 levels of 14.4
million units. We expect desktop MPUs to increase 1% year-over-year to 157 million units in CY10. Excluding Atom, total MPUs are likely to
grow 13% year-over-year in CY10. In terms of market share, we expect Intel’s MPU market share to increase by .8% to 82%, led by
strength in Notebooks and Servers, where we expect market share to increase by .2% and 1% to 88.5% and 91.2%, respectively.
GPU Share Data Suggests Share Gains in Integrated Graphics Led by Chipsets
We highlight that in graphics, Intel dominates this arena with integrated graphics offerings. The integrated graphics market was up 19%
quarter-over-quarter increasing from 73.3 million units to 86.9 million units. On a year-over-year basis, integrated graphics shipments grew
13% as consumer buying trends favored lower-end desktops and notebooks with integrated graphics chips. NVDA lost share in this
segment from 18.6% in 2Q to 13.5% in 3Q. Intel gained the majority of NVDA's market share loss with their market share climbing 3.7% to
72.3% due to strong mobile and desktop shipments of chipsets. We note that Intel reported a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase in chipset
sales in 3Q while units increased 25% quarter-over-quarter per Mercury Research estimates.
Market Share Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309
DT Discrete 27% 26% 24% 25% 25% 20% 19% 21% 22% 18% 17%
NB Discrete 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 12% 12% 9% 9% 10%
DT Integrated 42% 43% 43% 40% 40% 43% 36% 31% 36% 40% 38%
NB Integrated 24% 24% 24% 26% 26% 28% 33% 36% 33% 33% 35%
Total (NB+DT) Integrated 66% 67% 68% 66% 66% 71% 68% 67% 69% 73% 73%
Total (NB+DT) Discrete 34% 33% 32% 34% 34% 29% 32% 33% 31% 27% 27%
Total Desktop (Discrete+ Integ 69% 69% 68% 65% 65% 62% 55% 52% 58% 57% 55%
Total Notebook (Discrete+ Inte 31% 31% 32% 35% 35% 38% 45% 48% 42% 43% 45%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
PCs; Expect Stronger Overall Growth in CY2010, Corporate Refresh Cycle in 2H2010
Looking at end-markets, Barclays Capital IT Hardware analyst, Ben Reitzes, expects overall PC unit growth of 11% year-over-year for CY10
(excluding servers), which includes notebook growth of 21%, a desktop decline of 1%, and 38 million netbooks. Momentum in CY10 is
likely to be driven by Windows 7 upgrades in the corporate sector, but likely not until 2H10. Our IT Hardware analyst expects to see more
corporate upgrades in 2010 driven by an aging installed base, offset by some adverse impacts from desktop virtualization, which will likely
be more impactful on PC shipments in CY11 but with some momentum starting in CY10.
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Our IT Hardware team forecasts growth for the server market of around +8% YoY in CY2010. From a semiconductor perspective, an
improved server market is likely to be viewed as constructive for microprocessor leader Intel given the current Nehalem based upgrade
cycle as well as for AMD to some extent. In CY2010, our forecast calls for a 14% YoY increase in server unit shipments to 14 million units.
We highlight that this is off a lower base with CY09 down approximately 15% in our estimates. We expect corporate sentiment to improve in
the back half of 2010 and believe Intel is well positioned to benefit from pent up demand for Nehalem Servers.
Source: Barclays Capital (IT Hardware Analyst, Ben Reitzes) and Mercury Research
Our price target of $24 is based on 15x our CY10 EPS estimate of $1.60. We highlight that on a 5-year average basis, Intel has historically
traded at around 16x, with a trough of 11x and peak of 21x. We see strong support likely around the $18 level.
Intel 5-Yr Historical Fwd P/E Chart (based on consensus) Intel 5-Yr Historical EV/Sales Chart
INTC P/ E Ratio Min Max Average INTC EV/ Sales Min Max Average
6.0x
20x 5.5x
5.0x
18x
4.5x
4.0x
16x
3.5x
3.0x
14x
2.5x
2.0x
12x
1.5x
10x 1.0x
12/ 17/ 04
02/ 25/ 05
05/ 06/ 05
07/ 15/ 05
09/ 23/ 05
12/ 02/ 05
02/ 10/ 06
04/ 21/ 06
06/ 30/ 06
09/ 08/ 06
11/ 17/ 06
01/ 26/ 07
04/ 06/ 07
06/ 15/ 07
08/ 24/ 07
11/ 02/ 07
01/ 11/ 08
03/ 21/ 08
05/ 30/ 08
08/ 08/ 08
10/ 17/ 08
12/ 26/ 08
03/ 06/ 09
05/ 15/ 09
07/ 24/ 09
10/ 02/ 09
12/ 11/ 09
12/ 17/ 04
02/ 25/ 05
05/ 06/ 05
07/ 15/ 05
09/ 23/ 05
12/ 02/ 05
02/ 10/ 06
04/ 21/ 06
06/ 30/ 06
09/ 08/ 06
11/ 17/ 06
01/ 26/ 07
04/ 06/ 07
06/ 15/ 07
08/ 24/ 07
11/ 02/ 07
01/ 11/ 08
03/ 21/ 08
05/ 30/ 08
08/ 08/ 08
10/ 17/ 08
12/ 26/ 08
03/ 06/ 09
05/ 15/ 09
07/ 24/ 09
10/ 02/ 09
12/ 11/ 09
Source: FactSet
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Revenues $9,673 $9,470 $10,217 $8,226 $7,145 $8,024 $9,389 $10,187 $9,311 $9,255 $9,977 $10,755 $10,002 $9,902 $10,675 $11,507 $37,586 $34,745 $39,298 $42,087
Q/Q -9.7% -2.1% 7.9% -19.5% -13.1% 12.3% 17.0% 8.5% -8.6% -0.6% 7.8% 7.8% -7.0% -1.0% 7.8% 7.8%
Y/Y 9.3% 9.1% 1.3% -23.2% -26.1% -15.3% -8.1% 23.8% 30.3% 15.3% 6.3% 5.6% 7.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% -2.0% -7.6% 13.1% 7.1%
Cost of Goods 4,466 4,221 4,198 3,857 3,884 3,945 3,985 3,820 3,818 3,795 3,941 4,141 4,201 4,159 4,270 4,488 16,742 15,634 15,694 17,118
Gross Profit $5,207 $5,249 $6,019 $4,369 $3,261 $4,079 $5,404 $6,367 $5,493 $5,461 $6,036 $6,614 $5,801 $5,743 $6,405 $7,019 $20,844 $19,111 $23,605 $24,969
R&D $1,467 $1,468 $1,471 $1,316 $1,317 $1,303 $1,430 $1,500 $1,470 $1,470 $1,520 $1,570 $1,540 $1,530 $1,580 $1,630 $5,722 $5,550 $6,030 $6,280
SG&A $1,349 $1,430 $1,416 $1,263 $1,200 $1,250 $1,320 $1,400 $1,340 $1,340 $1,390 $1,445 $1,385 $1,385 $1,435 $1,490 $5,458 $5,170 $5,515 $5,695
Restructuring & asset impairment $329 $96 $34 $251 $74 $91 $63 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $710 $268 $160 $160
Amortization of Acq. $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $12 $20 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $32 $0 $0
Operating Income $2,062 $2,255 $3,098 $1,539 $670 $1,435 $2,579 $3,407 $2,643 $2,611 $3,086 $3,559 $2,836 $2,788 $3,350 $3,859 $8,954 $8,091 $11,900 $12,834
Gain On Investments ($59) ($109) ($396) ($1,192) ($113) ($69) ($79) ($25) ($15) ($10) ($10) ($10) ($10) ($10) ($10) ($10) ($1,756) ($286) ($45) ($40)
Interest & Other $168.0 $167.0 $131.0 $22.0 $95.0 $31.0 $32.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0 $40.0 $45.0 $40.0 $40.0 $45.0 $45.0 $488 $183 $150 $170
Profit Before Taxes $2,171 $2,313 $2,833 $369 $652 $1,397 $2,532 $3,407 $2,658 $2,636 $3,116 $3,594 $2,866 $2,818 $3,385 $3,894 $7,686 $7,988 $12,005 $12,964
Taxes $728 $712 $819 $135 $5 $348 $676 $886 $691 $685 $810 $935 $745 $733 $880 $1,013 $2,394 $1,915 $3,121 $3,371
Net Income $1,443 $1,601 $2,014 $234 $647 $1,049 $1,856 $2,521 $1,967 $1,950 $2,306 $2,660 $2,121 $2,086 $2,505 $2,882 $5,292 $6,073 $8,883 $9,593
Net Income-Ex Options $1,662 $1,844 $2,252 $403 $860 $1,307 $2,111 $2,775 $2,221 $2,203 $2,558 $2,912 $2,373 $2,337 $2,756 $3,133 $6,160 $7,053 $9,895 $10,599
Diluted Common & Equiv Sh (M) 5,879 5,800 5,692 5,623 5,634 5,678 5,616 5,586 5,576 5,566 5,556 5,556 5,546 5,536 5,526 5,526 5,749 5,629 5,564 5,534
EPS - Cont Ops $0.25 $0.28 $0.35 $0.04 $0.11 $0.18 $0.33 $0.45 $0.35 $0.35 $0.42 $0.48 $0.38 $0.38 $0.45 $0.52 $0.92 $1.08 $1.60 $1.73
EPS- Ex Options $0.28 $0.32 $0.40 $0.07 $0.15 $0.23 $0.38 $0.50 $0.40 $0.40 $0.46 $0.52 $0.43 $0.42 $0.50 $0.57 $1.07 $1.25 $1.78 $1.92
Percent of Sales
Gross Margin 53.8% 55.4% 58.9% 53.1% 45.6% 50.8% 57.6% 62.5% 59.0% 59.0% 60.5% 61.5% 58.0% 58.0% 60.0% 61.0% 55.5% 55.0% 60.1% 59.3%
R&D 15.2% 15.5% 14.4% 16.0% 18.4% 16.2% 15.2% 14.7% 15.8% 15.9% 15.2% 14.6% 15.4% 15.5% 14.8% 14.2% 15.2% 16.0% 15.3% 14.9%
SG&A 13.9% 15.1% 13.9% 15.4% 16.8% 15.6% 14.1% 13.7% 14.4% 14.5% 13.9% 13.4% 13.8% 14.0% 13.4% 12.9% 14.5% 14.9% 14.0% 13.5%
Operating Income 21.3% 23.8% 30.3% 18.7% 9.4% 17.9% 27.5% 33.4% 28.4% 28.2% 30.9% 33.1% 28.4% 28.2% 31.4% 33.5% 23.8% 23.3% 30.3% 30.5%
Depreciation 11.4% 11.0% 10.8% 13.4% 15.4% 15.1% 12.8% 12.7% 11.8% 11.9% 11.0% 10.2% 11.0% 11.1% 10.3% 9.6% 11.6% 13.8% 11.2% 10.5%
Net Income 14.9% 16.9% 19.7% 2.8% 9.1% 13.1% 19.8% 24.7% 21.1% 21.1% 23.1% 24.7% 21.2% 21.1% 23.5% 25.0% 14.1% 17.5% 22.6% 22.8%
Tax Rate 33.5% 30.8% 28.9% 36.6% 0.8% 24.9% 26.7% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 31.1% 24.0% 26.0% 26.0%
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Mobility $3,669 $3,797 $4,681 $3,501 $2,914 $3,481 $4,131 $4,552 $3,935 $4,173 $4,798 $5,284 $14,682 $5,325 $5,688 $6,439 $15,648 $15,078 $18,190 $32,134
Microprocessor $2,726 $2,742 $3,387 $2,584 $2,188 $2,554 $2,924 $3,249 $2,762 $3,082 $3,674 $4,082 $13,599 $4,319 $4,652 $5,330 $11,439 $10,915 $13,599 $27,899
Chipset & other $943 $1,055 $1,294 $917 $726 $927 $1,207 $1,304 $1,173 $1,091 $1,124 $1,202 $1,082 $1,006 $1,037 $1,109 $4,209 $4,164 $4,591 $4,235
Flash memory $497 $245 $170 $150 $150 $170 $235 $250 $290 $250 $225 $230 $290 $250 $225 $230 $1,062 $805 $995 $995
Other $66 $55 $48 $75 $72 $70 $110 $239 $572 $325 $119 $144 -$21,037 -$497 -$231 -$641 $244 $491 $1,160 -$22,406
TOTAL $9,673 $9,470 $10,217 $8,226 $7,145 $8,024 $9,389 $10,187 $9,311 $9,255 $9,977 $10,755 $10,002 $9,902 $10,675 $11,507 $37,586 $34,745 $39,298 $42,087
Revenue QoQ
Digital Enterprise -9% -1% -1% -15% -11% 7% 14% 5% -12% 0% 7% 5% 215% -70% 3% 10%
Microprocessor -6% -3% -1% -10% -11% 5% 13% 5% -13% 2% 9% 5% 268% -73% 4% 10%
Desktop -9% -9% 4% -6% -11% 2% 12% 3% -14% 2% 8% 4% 274% -74% 3% 11%
Server 1% 9% -9% -17% -12% 11% 16% 7% -10% 4% 10% 8% 258% -73% 5% 9%
Chipset, motherboard, other -18% 5% -1% -33% -10% 18% 17% 5% -10% -9% 2% 6% -10% -9% 2% 6%
Mobility -11% 3% 23% -25% -17% 19% 19% 10% -14% 6% 15% 10% 178% -64% 7% 13%
Microprocessor -9% 1% 24% -24% -15% 17% 15% 11% -15% 12% 19% 11% 233% -68% 8% 15%
Chipset & other -16% 12% 23% -29% -21% 28% 30% 8% -10% -7% 3% 7% -10% -7% 3% 7%
Flash memory -15% -51% -31% -12% 0% 13% 38% 6% 16% -14% -10% 2% 26% -14% -10% 2%
All Other 14% -17% -13% 56% -4% -3% 58% 118% 139% -43% -63% 22% -14680% -98% -53% 177%
TOTAL -9.7% -2% 8% -19% -13% 12% 17% 9% -9% -1% 8% 8% -7% -1% 8% 8%
Revenue YoY
Digital Enterprise 9% 11% -4% -25% -26% -20% -8% 14% 13% 5% -2% -1% 256% 7% 3% 8% -3% -11% 3% 65%
Microprocessor 13% 14% -1% -18% -23% -17% -5% 11% 8% 6% 1% 2% 330% 12% 7% 12% 1% -9% 4% 84%
Desktop 4% 7% -7% -19% -21% -11% -4% 5% 1% 1% -3% -3% 325% 10% 5% 13% -5% -8% -1% 84%
Server 37% 26% 13% -17% -27% -26% -6% 21% 23% 15% 9% 10% 340% 14% 9% 10% 13% -11% 14% 86%
Chipset, motherboard, other -4% 3% -11% -43% -38% -30% -17% 31% 31% 1% -12% -11% -11% -11% -11% -11% -15% -17% 0% -11%
Mobility 11% 15% 18% -15% -21% -8% -12% 30% 35% 20% 16% 16% 273% 28% 19% 22% 7% -4% 21% 77%
Microprocessor 12% 14% 20% -14% -20% -7% -14% 26% 26% 21% 26% 26% 392% 40% 27% 31% 7% -5% 25% 105%
Chipset & other 9% 17% 14% -18% -23% -12% -7% 42% 62% 18% -7% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% 5% -1% 10% -8%
Flash memory 6% -50% -69% -74% -70% -31% 38% 67% 93% 47% -4% -8% 0% 0% 0% 0% -49% -24% 24% 0%
All Other -20% 4% -11% 29% 9% 26% 129% 219% 695% 367% 8% -40% -3776% -253% -295% -544% -1% 101% 136% -2032%
TOTAL 9% 9% 1% -23% -26% -15% -8% 24% 30% 15% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% -2% -8% 13% 7%
Digital Enterprise 56% 57% 52% 55% 56% 54% 52% 51% 48% 49% 48% 47% 161% 49% 47% 48% 55% 53% 48% 80%
Microprocessor 44% 43% 40% 45% 46% 43% 41% 40% 38% 39% 39% 38% 152% 41% 39% 40% 43% 42% 39% 71%
Desktop 29% 27% 26% 30% 31% 28% 27% 26% 24% 24% 24% 23% 95% 25% 24% 25% 28% 27% 24% 44%
Server 15% 17% 14% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 15% 57% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 27%
Chipset, motherboard, other 12% 13% 12% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 12% 11% 10% 8%
Mobility 38% 40% 46% 43% 41% 43% 44% 45% 42% 45% 48% 49% 147% 54% 53% 56% 42% 43% 46% 82%
Microprocessor 28% 29% 33% 31% 31% 32% 31% 32% 30% 33% 37% 38% 136% 44% 44% 46% 30% 31% 35% 71%
Chipset & other 10% 11% 13% 11% 10% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 12% 12% 11%
Flash memory 5% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3%
All Other 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 6% 4% 1% 1% -210% -5% -2% -6% 1% 1% 3% -57%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 107%
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Equity Research
ASSETS
Cash & Securities 13,692 11,961 12,204 11,843 10,599 11,624 12,930 13,142 13,060 13,114 13,251 13,548 13,866 14,070 14,379 14,870 11,843 13,142 13,548 14,870
Accounts Receivable 2,725 2,399 2,782 1,712 2,086 1,938 2,025 2,289 2,724 2,576 2,624 2,593 2,927 2,756 2,808 2,774 1,712 2,289 2,593 2,774
Inventory - Raw Material 545 580 583 608 380 385 398
Inventory - WIP 1,361 1,355 1,427 1,577 1,448 1,209 1,072
Inventory - Finished Goods 1,366 1,330 1,388 1,559 1,217 1,211 1,020
Total Inventories 3,272 3,265 3,398 3,744 3,045 2,805 2,490 3,274 3,482 3,253 3,291 3,640 3,832 3,565 3,566 3,945 3,744 3,274 3,640 3,945
Other Current Assets 2,375 2,153 3,039 2,572 2,407 2,100 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 2,572 1,802 1,802 1,802
Total Current Assets 22,064 19,778 21,423 19,871 18,137 18,467 19,247 20,507 21,068 20,744 20,968 21,583 22,426 22,193 22,555 23,392 19,871 20,507 21,583 23,392
Net PP&E 16,667 16,723 17,026 17,544 17,815 17,515 17,354 17,220 17,020 16,820 16,620 16,420 16,220 16,020 15,820 15,620 17,544 17,220 16,420 15,620
Mktable Strategic Equity Sec. 530 644 401 352 412 513 766 766 766 766 766 766 766 766 766 766 352 766 766 766
Other LT Investments 4,473 4,651 3,820 2,924 2,513 3,002 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 2,924 3,611 3,611 3,611
Goodwill and Other Acq. Intang 3,916 3,915 3,924 3,932 3,932 3,932 4,421 4,360 4,296 4,237 4,174 4,113 4,049 3,990 3,927 3,866 3,932 4,360 4,113 3,866
Other Assets 5,737 6,681 6,125 6,092 5,615 5,632 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 6,092 5,597 5,597 5,597
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Total Assets 53,387 52,392 52,719 50,715 48,424 49,061 50,996 52,061 52,358 51,775 51,736 52,090 52,669 52,177 52,276 52,852 50,715 52,061 52,090 52,852
================================ ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
LIAB. & SHRHLDRS' EQUITY
Short-Term Debt 189 175 467 102 31 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 102 23 23 23
Accounts Payable & Accrued Liab. 4,422 4,824 5,247 4,405 3,541 3,856 4,428 3,988 4,615 4,378 4,331 4,323 5,078 4,799 4,692 4,685 4,405 3,988 4,323 4,685
Deferred inc. on disti shipments 643 665 656 463 468 480 602 602 602 602 602 602 602 602 602 602 463 602 602 602
Other Current Liabilities 3,414 2,368 3,698 2,848 2,253 2,719 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,848 2,696 2,696 2,696
Total Current Liabilities 8,668 8,032 10,068 7,818 6,293 7,079 7,749 7,309 7,936 7,699 7,652 7,644 8,399 8,120 8,013 8,006 7,818 7,309 7,644 8,006
Long-Term Debt 1,990 1,892 1,889 1,886 1,170 1,174 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 1,886 2,201 2,201 2,201
Other Liabilities 2,069 2,107 1,851 1,923 1,879 1,761 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 1,923 2,013 2,013 2,013
Total Liabilities 12,727 12,031 13,808 11,627 9,342 10,014 11,963 11,523 12,150 11,913 11,866 11,858 12,613 12,334 12,227 12,220 11,627 11,523 11,858 12,220
Shareholders' Equity 40,660 40,361 38,911 39,088 39,082 39,047 39,033 40,538 40,209 39,862 39,870 40,233 40,056 39,843 40,049 40,632 39,088 40,538 40,233 40,632
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
Total Liab. and Equity 53,387 52,392 52,719 50,715 48,424 49,061 50,996 52,061 52,358 51,775 51,736 52,090 52,669 52,177 52,276 52,852 50,715 52,061 52,090 52,852
================================ ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
Analyst Certification:
I, Tim Luke, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the
subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Company Description:
Intel is the largest manufacturer of semiconductor devices in the world. Its principal products are microprocessors that serve as the CPUs of
personal computers.
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Equity Research
On September 20, 2008, Barclays Capital acquired Lehman Brothers' North American investment banking, capital markets, and private investment
management businesses. All ratings and price targets prior to this date relate to coverage under Lehman Brothers Inc.
Important Disclosures:
Intel Corp. (INTC) US$ 19.07 (17-Dec-2009) 1-Overweight / 2-Neutral
Rating and Price Target Chart:
INTEL CORP.
As of 06-Oct-2009
Currency = USD
32.00
30.00
28.00
26.00
24.00
22.00
20.00
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
10-06 1-07 4-07 7-07 10-07 1-08 4-08 7-08 10-08 1-09 4-09 7-09 10-09
Closing Price Price Target
Recommendation Change Drop Coverage
Source: FactSet
Currency=US$
Date Closing Price Rating Price Target Date Closing Price Rating Price Target
28-Aug-09 20.25 22.00 29-Sep-08 17.27 21.00
15-Jul-09 18.05 19.00 29-Sep-08 17.27 2 -Equal weight
13-May-09 15.13 18.00 08-Sep-08 20.97 24.00
06-Apr-09 15.86 17.00 15-May-08 24.97 26.00
25-Feb-09 13.03 16.00 07-Apr-08 21.75 24.00
16-Jan-09 13.74 15.00 16-Jan-08 19.88 23.00
05-Dec-08 13.29 14.00 17-Oct-07 26.72 30.00
11-Nov-08 13.93 16.00 18-Jul-07 25.06 28.00
13-Oct-08 16.99 20.00 21-Feb-07 20.88 24.00
FOR EXPLANATIONS OF RATINGS REFER TO THE STOCK RATING KEYS LOCATED ON THE PAGE FOLLOWING THE LAST PRICE CHART.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by Intel Corp. or one of its affiliates.
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Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Intel Corp.
within the next 3 months.
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Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from Intel Corp. within the past 12
months.
Intel Corp. is or during the past 12 months has been an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
Intel Corp. is or during the last 12 months has been a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC
and/or an affiliate.
Valuation Methodology: PT is $24 or 15x our CY10 EPS estimate of $1.60
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Intel is heavily dependent to PC sales. If the number of PCs sold
declines, Intel's processor opportunity will directly be affected by the units. Intel's average selling prices are also impacted by supply and
demand conditions of PCs. Although the company typically reduces processor prices once a quarter, the company may increase the
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Equity Research
severity of the price cut to drive sell through demand. Also the competitive position of AMD products and any market share gains could
adversely affect Intel. Intel's Architecture group, which includes the processor revenue, generates about 85% of total revenue and over
100% of operating profit.
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Equity Research
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Equity Research
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