Simulation Models

Simulation Modeling l CHAPTER 15
TRUE/FALSE
15.1
Simulation is a rarely used quantitative analysis tool.

ANSWER: FALSE
15.2
Simulation of a business or process is generally performed by building a mathematical model to

represent the process or system.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.3
While simulations can be completed by manual computations, effective simulations generally use a
computer to simulate many thousands of events.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.4
Simulation models are designed to generate optimal solutions, which can then be applied to realworld situations.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.5
A major advantage of using simulation techniques is to be able to study the interactive effect of
individual components/variables.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.6
Simulation models are limited to using standard probability distributions such as Poisson,
exponential, normal, etc.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.7
Any randomly selected integer used to start the Von Neumann midsquare method of random
number generation generates a stream of random numbers.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.8
The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to model deterministic elements of a system.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.9
When using a random number generator, one should never start in the middle of the table of
random numbers.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.10
Simulation models imitate a real-world situation mathematically.

ANSWER: TRUE
15.11
Simulation models are used quite often to investigate a systems response to deterministic elements
of the system.
ANSWER: FALSE
226
15.12
Queuing models are often investigated through the use of simulation techniques.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.13
Simulation is a valuable technique for analyzing various maintenance policies before actually
implementing them.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.14
Special purpose simulation languages are more advantageous to use than general purpose
languages in simulation models.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.15
The primary purpose of simulation is to generate numbers describing the state of a real system.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.16
To develop a useful simulation, one must understand statistics as well as the logic of the process to
be simulated.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.17
A simulation may take on a logical or mathematical form as well as a physical form.

ANSWER: TRUE
15.18
One advantage of simulation is that we can investigate the performance of a system without
actually designing the system.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.19
When faced with a queuing or waiting line problem, it is typically preferable to utilize an analytical
model rather than a simulation model, since the analytical model provides a greater amount of
information.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.20
If, in a simple queuing or waiting line problem, we wish to know the maximum likely waiting time,
or the maximum likely length of the line, we must use a simulation model.
ANSWER: TRUE
227
15.21
If we wish to use a Monte Carlo simulation model, we must run the model a number of times and
look at the collection of answers generated.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.22
One of the advantages of simulation is that it allows one to easily identify an optimal solution to a
problem.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.23
Analytical models are preferable to simulation models in that the analytical model gives more
precise results.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.24
One of the limitations of simulation is that it is very difficult to do without using a computer.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.25
Simulation models may contain both deterministic and probabilistic variables.

ANSWER: TRUE
15.26
One of the major advantages of simulation is that a good model can usually be developed in a
relatively short time even for large complex problems.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.27
If we are using a Monte Carlo simulation model, we should expect the model to produce the same
results for each set of random numbers used.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.28
Unfortunately, Monte Carlo simulations are usually limited to using the particular probability
distributions supported by a specific simulation language.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.29
The first step in constructing a simulation is constructing the numerical model.

ANSWER: FALSE
15.30
One of the major advantages of simulation is "time compression," i.e., the ability to study in a
relatively short period, activities that would, in reality, take place over a period of days, months, or
even years.
ANSWER: TRUE
228
15.31
Monte Carlo simulation requires that we run the simulation dozens of times with the same set of
random numbers to see how the solutions differ as a function of the random numbers used.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.32
A computer-based random number generator will always produce a useful set of random numbers.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.33
If, for a simple queuing or waiting line problem, we compare the solution from an analytical model
with that from a simulation, we will typically find them to be exactly the same.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.34
One of the problems with simulation is that we must consider carefully the number of time periods
for which the simulation should be conducted.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.35
One of the limitations of analytical models is that they typically consider the system only in steady
state or "on average."
ANSWER: TRUE
15.36
Simulation can sometimes predict problems with a system before they actually happen.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.37
Most simulations are done to identify minimum cost alternatives.

ANSWER: FALSE
15.38
Three types of simulation are: Monte Carlo simulation, system simulation, and operational gaming.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.39
When we decide to perform a simulation, it really does not matter which simulation language we
use.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.40
One of the advantages of simulation is that we can usually develop a useful model without having
to collect much data.
ANSWER: FALSE
229
15.41
One of the advantages to simulation is that it will usually give us very precise answers to extremely
complex problems.
ANSWER: FALSE
15.42
The advantage of simulation over queuing or waiting line models is that simulation allows us to
relax our assumptions regarding arrival and service distributions.
ANSWER: TRUE
15.43
The wider the variation among results produced by using different sets of random numbers, the
longer we need to run the simulation to obtain reliable results.
ANSWER: TRUE
*15.44 The wide availability of personal computers has increased the use of simulation as an effective
decision tool.
ANSWER: TRUE
*15.45 One advantage of using simulation is that the simulation can be used as a selling tool when you
try to convince others of the appropriateness of your solution.
AN SWER: TRUE
*15.46 Unfortunately, while simulation appears to be a useful decision tool, it does not allow the inclusion
of complications into real-world problems.
ANSWER: FALSE
*15.47 Fortunately, a good simulation language will allow one to simulate a system while knowing very
little about the system.
ANSWER: FALSE
*15.48 When performing a Monte Carlo simulation, it is essential to understand the process used to
generate the random numbers.
ANSWER: TRUE
*15.49 The particular process used to generate random numbers is of little concern; one random number
generating process is as good as another.
ANSWER: FALSE
*15.50 For most modern simulation languages, the only probability distributions provided are the Normal,
Poisson, and Negative Exponential.
ANSWER: FALSE
*15.51 When running a simulation, you must choose both the number of time periods or state changes, and
the number of sets of random numbers to use.
230
ANSWER: TRUE
*15.52 There are two fundamental types of simulation models: fixed time increment, and next event
increment.
ANSWER: TRUE
*15.53 There are some simulation languages that allow the user to track the costs of all resources used.
ANSWER: TRUE
*15.54 Once you have constructed a simulation model, you can simply go ahead and run the simulation.
ANSWER: FALSE
MULTIPLE CHOICE
15.55
In using simulation, a manager should

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
define a problem before constructing a numerical model.

set up possible courses of action for testing prior to constructing a numerical model.
run the experiment before introducing the variables associated with the problem.
all of the above
ANSWER: a
15.56
Which of the following is an advantage of simulation:

(a) good models can be very expensive
(b) managers must generate all of the conditions and constraints for solutions that they want to
examine
(c) sometimes simulation is the only method available
(d) each simulation model is unique
(e) none of the above
ANSWER: c
15.57
Which of the following is a disadvantage of simulation:

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
15.58
it is relatively straightforward and flexible

it can be used to analyze complex real-world situations
simulation allows what-if types of questions
simulation does not interfere with the real-world system
simulation can be expensive
ANSWER: e
Which of the following is not always a step in Monte Carlo simulation:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
establishing probability distributions

building a cumulative probability distribution for each variable
setting random number intervals
starting an exponential generator
231
(e) simulating the experiment

ANSWER: d
15.59
Simulation can be effectively used in many

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
inventory problems.
transportation problems.
maintenance policy problems.
all of the above
ANSWER: d
15.60
The use of simulation in competitive situations such as military games and business games is
known as
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Monte Carlo methods.

operational gaming.
system simulation.
all of the above
ANSWER: b
15.61
The following is not a characteristic of Monte Carlo simulation:

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
it uses random numbers

it uses random sampling of a probability distribution
it evaluates system responses to various policies
it deals with the dynamics of large organizational systems
none of the above
ANSWER: d
15.62
When simulating the Monte Carlo experiment, the average simulated demand over the long run
should approximate the
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
real demand.
expected demand.
sampled demand.
daily demand.
none of the above
ANSWER: b
15.63
The use of simulation to examine corporate operations (industrial dynamics), national economies
(econometric models), and urban governments is known as
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
Monte Carlo methods.

operational gaming.
system simulation.
all of the above
none of the above
232
ANSWER: c
15.64
The idea behind simulation is to

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
imitate a real-world situation.

study the properties and operating characteristics of a real world situation.
draw conclusions and make action decisions based upon simulated results.
all of the above
none of the above
ANSWER: d
15.65
The following is not an advantage of simulation:

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
allows for the study of what-if questions

each simulation model is unique
allows the study of interaction of components or variables to determine which are important
allows time compression
none of the above
ANSWER: b
15.66
In a Monte Carlo simulation, a variable that we might want to simulate is

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
lead time for inventory orders to arrive.

times between machine breakdowns.
times between arrivals at a service facility.
number of employees absent from work each day.
all of the above
ANSWER: e
15.67
In assigning random numbers in a Monte Carlo simulation,

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
it is important to use a normal distribution for all variables simulated.

it is important to develop a cumulative probability distribution.
it is not important to assign probabilities to an exact range of random number intervals.
all of the above
ANSWER: b
15.68
Using simulation for a queuing problem

(a) would be rare in a realistic situation.
(b) is an unreasonable alternative if the arrival rate is not Poisson distributed but can be plotted on
a curve.
(c) could be appropriate if the service time was not exponential or constant.
(d) all of the above
ANSWER: c
15.69
Special purpose simulation languages include
233
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
FORTRAN.
BASIC.
GPSS.
PL/1.
all of the above
ANSWER: c
Table 15-1
The data below provides information regarding daily demand for a
product. The probabilities are provided and random numbers have been
assigned to each event.
Daily Demand
5
6
7
8
Probability
0.30
0.50
0.05
0.15
Random Numbers
01-30
31-80
81-95
96-00
Random numbers for arrivals: 14, 74, 27, 03

15.70
According to Table 15-1, if the random number 50 were generated for a particular day, what would
the simulated demand be for that day?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
5
6
7
20
none of the above
ANSWER: b
234
15.71
According to Table 15-1, if the random number 97 were generated for a particular day, what would
the simulated demand be for that day?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
5
6
7
8
none of the above
ANSWER: d
15.72
According to Table 15-1, what is the cumulative probability that demand is less than or equal to 6?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
0.81
0.95
0.80
0.15
none of the above
ANSWER: c
Table 15-2
A pharmacy is considering hiring another pharmacist to better
serve the customers. To help analyze this situation, records
are kept to determine how many customers will arrive in any
10-minute interval. Based on 100 ten-minute intervals, the
following probability distribution has been developed and
random numbers assigned to each event.
15.73
Probability
Random Numbers
6
7
8
9
10
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
01-20
21-50
51-80
81-90
91-00
According to Table 15-2, the number of arrivals in any 10-minute period is between 6 and 10,
inclusive. Suppose the next 3 random numbers were 18, 89, and 67, and these were used to
simulate arrivals in the next 3 10-minute intervals. How many customers would have arrived
during this 30-minute time period?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
15.74
Number of Arrivals
22
23
24
25
none of the above
ANSWER: b
According to Table 15-2, the number of arrivals in any 10-minute period is between 6 and 10,
inclusive. Suppose the next 3 random numbers were 20, 50, and 79, and these were used to
simulate arrivals in the next 3 10-minute intervals. How many customers would have arrived
during this 30-minute time period?
235
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
18
19
20
21
none of the above
ANSWER: d
15.75
According to Table 15-2, the number of arrivals in any 10-minute period is between 6 and 10
inclusive. Suppose the next 3 random numbers were 02, 81, and 18. These numbers are used to
simulate arrivals into the pharmacy. What would the average number of arrivals per 10-minute
period be based on this set of occurrences?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
6
7
8
9
none of the above
ANSWER: b
Table 15.3
A pawn shop in Arlington, Texas, has a drive-through window
to better serve customers. The following tables provide
information about the time between arrivals and the service
times required at the window on a particularly busy day of the
week. All times are in minutes.
Time Between Arrivals
1
2
3
4
Probability
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2
Random Numbers
01-10
11-40
41-80
81-00
Service Time
Probability
Random Numbers
1
0.2
00-20
2
0.4
21-60
3
0.3
61-90
4
0.1
91-00
The first random number generated for arrivals is used to tell
when the first customer arrives after opening.
236
15.76
According to Table 15-3, the time between successive arrivals is 1, 2, 3, or 4 minutes. If the store
opens at 8:00 AM and random numbers are used to generate arrivals, what time would the first
customer arrive if the first random number were 02?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
8:01
8:02
8:03
8:04
none of the above
ANSWER: a
15.77
According to Table 15-3, the time between successive arrivals is 1, 2, 3, or 4 minutes. The store
opens at 8:00 AM and random numbers are used to generate arrivals and service times. The first
random number to generate an arrival is 39, while the first service time is generated by the random
number 94. What time would the first customer finish transacting business?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
8:03
8:04
8:05
8:06
none of the above
ANSWER: d
15.78
opens at 8:00 AM and random numbers are used to generate arrivals and service times. The first 3
random numbers to generate arrivals are 09, 89, and 26. What time does the third customer
arrive?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
8:07
8:08
8:09
8:10
none of the above
ANSWER: a
15.79
opens at 8:00 AM and random numbers are used to generate arrivals and service times. The first
two random numbers for arrivals are 95 and 08. The first two random numbers for service times
are 92 and 18. What time does the second customer finish transacting business?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
8:07
8:08
8:09
8:10
none of the above
ANSWER: c
Table 15-4
237
Variable Value
0
1
2
3
4
Number of Runs
Average Value
15.80
Probability
0.08
0.23
0.32
0.28
0.09
Cumulative Probability
0.08
0.31
0.63
0.91
1.00
200
2.10
According to Table 15-4, which presents a summary of the Monte Carlo output from a simulation
of 200 runs, there are 5 possible values for the variable of concern. If this variable represents the
number of machine breakdowns during a day, what is the probability that the number of
breakdowns is 2 or less?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
0.23
0.31
0.32
0.63
none of the above
ANSWER: d
15.81
number of machine breakdowns during a day, what is the probability that the number of
breakdowns is more than 4?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
0
0.08
0.09
1.00
none of the above
ANSWER: a
238
15.82
number of machine breakdowns during a day, based on this simulation run, what is the average
number of breakdowns per day?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
2.00
2.10
2.50
200
none of the above
ANSWER: b
This table provides information for questions 15.83 15.86.
Table 15.5
A car wash in Waco, Texas, has at the moment room enough
for three cars in its approach to the automatic washer. The
following tables provide information about the time between
arrivals and the service times required to wash and dry a car
on a particularly busy day of the week. All times are in
minutes.
Time Between Arrivals
1
2
3
4
Probability
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.1
Random Numbers
00 19
20 69
70 89
90 - 99
Service Time
Probability
Random Numbers
1
0.1
00 09
2
0.2
10 29
3
0.6
30 89
4
0.1
90 - 99
The first random number generated for arrivals is used to tell
when the first customer arrives after opening.
Use row 1 to generate times between arrivals and use row 2 to generate service times.
67
24
78
18
53
16
23
45
65
33
32
37
38
51
82
Random Numbers
17 17 84 92
44 87 83 99
87 74 20 41
30 35 73 93
75 99 69 38
239
86
26
26
74
63
12
76
26
99
74
19
97
20
70
75
*15.83 At what time does the first car arrive? Assume that the carwash opens at 08:00 am.
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
08:03 am
08:02 am
08:05 am
08:07 am
none of the above
ANSWER: b
*15.84 How long does it take to service the first arrival?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
4 minutes
3 minutes
2 minutes
1 minute
none of the above
ANSWER: c
*15.85 At what time does the first car that will be forced to wait for service arrive?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
08:03
08:04
08:05
08:06
none of the above
ANSWER: a
*15.86 How long does the first car that will be forced to wait for service have to wait?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3 minutes
1 minute
2 minutes
4 minutes
none of the above
ANSWER: b
240
PROBLEMS
15.87
Henry has a newspaper stand where he sells papers for $0.50. The papers cost him $0.30, giving
him a 20-cent profit on each one he sells. From past experience, Henry knows that
20% of the time he sells 100 papers
Assuming that Henry believes that the cost of a lost sale is 10 cents and any unsold papers cost
him $0.30, simulate Henry's profit outlook over 5 days if he orders 200 papers for each of the 5
days. Use the following random numbers: 52, 06, 50, 88, 53.
ANSWER: DAY RN DEMAND
1
52 200
2
06 100
3
50 200
4
88 250
5
53 200
15.88
UNSOLD LOST
0
0
100
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
PROFIT
40
10
40
35
40
Average profit = 29
Henry has a newspaper stand where he sells papers for $0.50. The papers cost him $0.30, giving
him a 20-cent profit on each one he sells. From past experience, Henry knows that
Assuming that Henry believes that the cost of a lost sale is 10 cents and any unsold papers cost
him $0.30, simulate Henry's profit outlook over 5 days if he orders 175 papers for each of the 5
days. Use the following random numbers: 52,06, 50, 88, 53.
ANSWER: DAY RN DEMAND
1
52 200
2
06 100
3
50 200
4
88 250
5
53 200
UNSOLD LOST
0
25
75
0
0
25
0
75
0
25
241
PROFIT
32.50
2.50
32.50
27.50
32.50
Average profit = 24.50
15.89
A certain grocery store has noted the following figures with regard to the number of people who
arrive at their three checkout stands ready to check out and the time it takes to check out the
individuals.
Arrivals/Min.
0
1
2
Frequency
0.3
0.5
0.2
Service Time in Min.

1
2
3
4
Frequency
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2
Simulate the utilization rate of the three checkout stands over four minutes using the following
random numbers for arrivals: 07, 60, 49, and 95. Use the following random numbers for service:
77,76, 51, and 16. Note the results at the end of the 4 minute period.
ANSWER:
t=
0
1
2
3
RN=
07
60
49
95
Arrival #
0
1
1
2
RN=
Service Time=
77
3
76
3
51
1
16
2
Note: all checkouts are busy, so one customer waits.
Therefore, at the end of four minutes, two checkouts are still busy and one is available.
15.90
Use the following random numbers to simulate yes and no answers to ten questions by starting in
the first row and letting:
(a) the double digit number 0049 represent no and 5099 represent yes.
(b) the single digit even numbers represent no and the odd numbers represent yes.
RANDOM NUMBERS: 52, 06, 50, 88, 53, 30, 10, 47, 99, 37.
ANSWER:
a) yes no yes yes yes no no no yes no
b) yes no no no yes no no no yes yes
15.91
Random numbers may be used to simulate continuous distributions. As a simple example, presume
that fixed cost = $250, profit contribution equals $10 per item sold, and you expect an equally
likely chance of 099 units to be sold. That is, profit equals $250 + $10X, where X = the number
sold. The mean amount you would expect to sell is 49.5 units.
(a) Calculate the expected profit.
(b) Simulate the sale of 10 items, using the following double digit random numbers: 37, 77, 13, 10,
02, 18, 31, 19, 32, 85.
(c) Calculate the average profit in (b) above, and compare with the results of (a) above.
242
ANSWER:
a) expected value = -250 + 10(49.5) = $245
b) 250 + $10(37) = $120
250 + $10(77) = $520
250 + $10(13) =$120
250 + $10(10) =$150
250 + $10(02) =$230
250 + $10(18) =$ 70
250 + $10(31) = $ 60
250 + $10(19) =$ 60
250 + $10(32) = $ 70
250 + $10(85) = $600
c) The average of these simulated sales is $290. If the sample size were larger, we would expect
the two values to be closer.
15.92
The daily demand for newspapers at a particular machine is either 30, 31, 32, or 33, with
probabilities 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, respectively. Assume the following random numbers have been
generated: 08, 54, 74, 66, 52, 58, 03, 18, 92, 85. Using these numbers, generate the daily sales of
the newspaper for 10 days.
ANSWER:
Sales
30
31
32
33
RN
0140
4170
7190
9100
Sales: 30, 31, 32, 31, 31, 31, 30, 30, 33, 32
15.93
The number of machine breakdowns in a day is 0, 1, or 2, with probabilities 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1,
respectively. The following random numbers have been generated: 13, 10, 02, 18, 31, 19, 32, 85,
31, 94. Use these numbers to generate the number of breakdowns for 10 consecutive days. What
proportion of these days had at least 1 breakdown?
ANSWER:
Breakdowns
0
1
2
RN
0160
6190
9100
Breakdowns: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2
proportion at least 1 broken down = 2/10
243
15.94
The number of cars arriving at a self service gasoline station during the last 50 hours of operation
are as follows:
Number of Cars
Arriving
Frequency
6
10
7
14
8
18
9
8
The following random numbers have been generated: 44, 30, 26, 09, 49, 52, 33, 89, 21, 37.
Simulate 10 hours of arrivals at this station. What is the average number of arrivals during this
period?
ANSWER:
# Cars
6
7
8
9
RN
0120
2148
4984
8500
Arrivals: 7, 7, 7, 6, 8, 8, 7, 9, 7, 7
15.95
average number of arrivals = 7.3
Average daily sales of a product are 8 units. The actual number of sales each day is either 7, 8, or
9, with probabilities 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3, respectively. The lead time for delivery of this averages 4
days, although the time may be 3, 4, or 5 days, with probabilities 0.2, 0.6, and 0.2. The company
plans to place an order when the inventory level drops to 32 units (based on the average demand
and average lead time). The following random numbers have been generated: 60, 87, 46, 63 (set
1) and 52, 78, 13, 06, 99, 98, 80, 09, 67, 89, 45 (set 2). Use set 1 of these to generate lead times
and use set 2 to simulate daily demand. Simulate 2 ordering periods with this and determine how
often the company runs out of stock before the shipment arrives.
ANSWER:
Sales
7
8
9
RN
0130
3170
7100
Lead
Time
3
4
5
RN
0120
2180
8100
First order: RN = 60 so lead time = 4 days.

Demand: day 1 8 (RN = 52)
day 2 9 (RN = 78)
day 3 7 (RN = 13)
day 4 7 (RN = 06)
Total demand during lead time = 31. Since the reorder point is 32, there is no stockout.
244
Second order: RN = 87 so lead time = 5

Demand: day 1 9 (RN = 99)
day 2 9 (RN = 98)
day 3 9 (RN = 80)
day 4 7 (RN = 09)
day 5 8 (RN = 67)
Total demand during lead time = 42. So the company experienced a stockout during this time.
15.96
The time between arrivals at a drive-through window of a fast food restaurant follows the
distribution given below. The service time distribution is also given in the table below. Use the
random numbers provided to simulate the activity of the first five arrivals. Assume that the
window opens at 11:00 AM and the first arrival after this is based on the first interarrival time
generated.
Time Between
Arrivals
1
2
3
4
Service
Probability
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
Time
Probability
1
2
3
0.3
0.5
0.2
Random numbers for arrivals: 14, 74, 27, 03

Random numbers for service times: 88, 32, 36, 24
What times does the fourth customer leave the system?
ANSWER:
Time between
Arrivals
1
2
3
4
Prob.
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
RN
0120
2150
5180
8100
Service
Time
1
2
3
Prob.
0.3
0.5
0.2
RN
0130
3180
8100
First arrival (RN=14) at 11:01. Service time 3 (RN=88). Leaves at 11:04.

Second arrival (RN=74) at 11:04 (3 minutes after 1st). Service time = 2 (RN=32). Leaves at
11:06.
Third arrival (RN=27) at 11:06. Service time = 2 (RN=36). Leaves at 11:08.
Fourth arrival (RN=03) at 11:07. Must wait 1 minute for service to start. Service time = 1 minute
(RN=24). Leaves at 11:09.
245
SHORT ANSWER/ESSAY
15.97
Describe the basic concept of simulation models.

ANSWER: to build a mathematical model of a real-life system that attempts to mimic the reality of
the real-life system
15.98
List three advantages of simulation techniques.

ANSWER: simulations are flexible; can analyze large, complex real-world situations; can ask
what-if ?; can avoid tampering with the present system; can study the impact of individual
variables on the modeled system, can simulate many time periods quickly; can incorporate any
probabilistic distribution
15.99
List three disadvantages of simulation techniques.

ANSWER: good models can be expensive; models do not generate optimal solutions; humans must
generate conditions and constraint information for solutions
15.100 Explain what is meant by a Monte Carlo simulation?

ANSWER: the ability to experiment on the probabilistic elements of a simulation model through
random sampling
15.101 Explain how to manually utilize a table of random numbers.
ANSWER: in a simulation, one may begin using the random numbers anywhere in the table;
thereafter, one uses the numbers in a consistent stream on the table
15.102 List three categories of simulation models.
ANSWER: Monte Carlo, operational gaming, systems simulation
15.103 Explain what is meant by operational gaming and give one such example.
ANSWER: a simulation involving two or more competitors military games, competing
businesses, specific professional football strategies, etc.
15.104 Explain what is meant by systems simulations and give one such example.
ANSWER: a large system simulation that allows users to test various policies and decisions to
determine their effect on the operating environment a businesss sales expenditures, interest rates,
wage rates, overhead costs, etc.
246

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Simulation Modeling l CHAPTER 15

Simulation is a rarely used quantitative analysis tool.

Simulation of a business or process is generally performed by building a mathematical model to