Newbold Ism 07 PDF
Newbold Ism 07 PDF
Newbold Ism 07 PDF
7.1
Probability
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
7.3 The sampling distribution of the sample mean can be generated by listing out
all possible samples of size n, calculate each possible x , determine the
probability of each possible x and generate the sampling distribution.
Alternatively, the probabilities of each x can be generated by use of the
binomial formula.
a. When n = 5: Use the binomial formula for x = 0, x = 1, etc.:
x
X
P(X)
0
.07776
0
1
.25920
.2
2
.34560
.4
3
.23040
.6
4
.07680
.8
5
.01024
1.0
p(1 p )
.4(.6)
2
E ( px ) = np = (5)(.4) = 2.0, p =
= =
= .048, p = .2191
n
5
E ( px ) = np = (100)(.4) = 40, p =
p = .04899
p(1 p )
.4(.6)
= =
= .0024,
n
100
7.4 The response should note that there will be errors in taking a census of the
entire population as well as errors in taking a sample. Improved accuracy can
be achieved via sampling methods versus taking a complete census (see
reference to Hogan, 90). By using sample information, we can make valid
inferences about the entire population without the time and expense involved
in taking a census.
7.5
a. mean and variance of the sampling distribution for the sample mean
x = = 100
2 x = n = 81 25 = 3.24 x = x 2 = 3.24
2
145
146
th
102 100
= 1.11 1 Fz(1.11) = .1335
3.24
98 100
= -1.11 Fz = 1 Fz(1.11)
c. Probability that 98 x 101 z x =
3.24
= .1335
101 100
zx =
= .56 Fz(.56) [1-Fx(1.11)] = .7123 - .1335 = .5788
3.24
101.5 100
= .83 Fz = .7967
d. Probability that x 101.5 z x =
3.24
b. Probability that x > 102 z x =
7.6
a. mean and variance of the sampling distribution for the sample mean
x = = 100
2 x = n = 900 30 = 30 x = x 2 = 30
2
109 100
= 1.64 1 Fz(1.64) = .0505
30
96 100
= -.73 1 Fz(.73) = .2327
c. Probability that 96 x 110 z x =
30
110 100
zx =
= 1.83 Fz = .9664. .9664 - .2327 = .7337
30
107 100
= 1.28 Fz = .8997
d. Probability that x 107 z x =
30
7.7
a. mean and variance of the sampling distribution for the sample mean
x = = 200
2 x = n = 625 25 = 25 x = x 2 = 25
209 200
= 1.80 1 Fz(1.80) = .0359
b. Probability that x > 209 z x =
25
198 200
= -.40 1 Fz(.40) =
c. Probability that 198 x 211 z x =
25
.3446
211 200
zx =
= 2.20 Fz(2.20) = .9861. .9861 - .3446 = .6415
25
202 200
= .40 Fz = .6554
d. Probability that x 202 z x =
25
2
7.8
a. mean and variance of the sampling distribution for the sample mean
x = = 400
412 400
= 1.77 1 Fz(1.77) = .0384
45.7143
407 400
= 1.04 Fz(1.04) =
c. Probability that 393 x 407 z x =
45.7143
.8508
393 400
zx =
= -1.04 1 Fz(1.04) = .1492. .8508 - .1492 =
45.7143
.7016
389 400
= -1.63 1-Fz(1.63) = 1-.9484
d. Probability that x 389 z x =
45.7143
= .0516
b. Probability that x > 412 z x =
7.9
a. E( X ) = x = 92.
2
b. x =
( 3.6 )
c. x =
= 3.24
3.6
= 1.8
2
93 92
) = P(Z > .56) =
1.8
d. P(Z >
.2877
7.10
a. E( X ) = x = 1,200
2
b. x =
2
n
( 400 )
9
c. x =
= 17,778
d. P(Z<
400
= 133.33
3
1, 050 1, 200
) = P(Z<-1.13)
133.33
=.1292
24 25
24 25
) = P(Z < -.5) = .3085. ii) P(Z <
) = P(Z < -1)
2
2 4
=.1587
24 25
) = P(Z < -2) = .0228
iii) P(Z <
2 16
b. As the sample size increases, the standard error of the sampling
distribution will decrease. That is, as the sample size increases, the
sampling distribution of the sample means will clump up tighter
around the true population mean. The graph would show a tighter
distribution with less area in the tails.
7.12
110 115
) = P(Z < -2) = .9772
25 100
113 115
117 115
b. P(
<Z<
) = P(-.8 < Z < .8) = .5762
25 100
25 100
a. P(Z >
147
148
th
114 115
116 115
<Z<
) = P(-.4 < Z < .4) = .3108
25 100
25 100
d. $114,000 - $116,000
e. Even with non-normal populations, the sampling distribution of the
sample means will be normal for sufficient sample n. Since n is 30,
the sampling distribution of the sample means can assumed to be a
normal distribution.
c. P(
7.13
7.14
60
= 20
9
270 280
) = P(Z < -.5) = 1 - .6915 = .3085
b. P(Z <
20
250 280
) = P(Z > -1.5) = .9332
c. P(Z >
20
d. If the population standard deviation is smaller, then the standard error
of the sampling distribution of the means will also be smaller. Since Z
is higher, tail areas are smaller and the probabilities calculated for
parts a and b will both be smaller.
a. x =
b.
c.
d.
e.
7.15
22
= 5.5
16
100 87
) = P(Z < 2.36) = .9909
P(Z <
5.5
80 87
) = P(Z > -1.27) = .8980
P(Z >
5.5
85 87
95 87
>Z>
) = P(-.36 > Z > 1.45) = .4329
P(
5.5
5.5
Higher, higher, lower. The graph will show that the standard error of
the sample means will decrease with an increased sample size.
a. x =
.6
= .3
4
19.7 20
) = P(Z < -1) = .1587
b. P(Z <
.3
20.6 20
) = P(Z > 2) = .0228
c. P(Z >
.3
19.5 20
20.5 20
<Z<
) = P(-1.67 < Z < 1.67) = .905
d. P(
.3
.3
19.5 20
20.5 20
<Z<
) = P(-1.18 < Z < 1.18) = .762
e. P(
.6 2
.6 2
a. x =
7.16
7.17
7.18
40
=4
100
b. P(Z > 5/4) = P(Z > 1.25) = .1056
c. P(Z < -4/4) = P(Z < -1) = .1587
d. P(-3/4 > Z > 3/4) = P(-.75 > Z > .75) = .4532
a. x =
8
= 4. P(Z > 2/4) = P(Z > .5) = .3085
4
b. P(Z < -3/4) = P(Z < -.75) = .2266
c. P(-4/4 > Z > 4/4) = P(-1 > Z > 1) = .3174
d. Lower, lower, lower
a. x =
a. x =
Difference
1.6
, Difference =
= .16, P(Z>1.645) =.05, 1.645 =
.16
100
.2632
Difference
, Difference = -.2048
.16
Difference
, Difference = .2304
c. P(Z > 1.44) = .075, 1.44 =
.16
1
, n = 39.075, take n = 40
3.8 n
c. larger
2
8.4
, n = 67.766, take n = 68
b. smaller
c. larger
7.21
a. x =
1
N
( X i X )2 =
Nx 2
b.
(4.5 5.5) 2 2(4.75 5.5) 2 2(5 5.5) 2
+
+
+
15
15
15
2(5.25 5.5)2 1(5.5 5.5) 2 3(5.75 5.5) 2 (6 5.5) 2
+
+
+
+
+
15
15
15
15
2(6.25 5.5) 2 (6.75 5.5) 2 47
+
+
=
15
15
120
2
N n 47 12 6 4 47
=
=
c. x 2 =
n N 1
4 6 1 120
x 2 = ( X i ) 2 Px ( x ) =
149
150
th
0
19
20
N = 40, correction factor =
39
80
N = 100, correction factor =
99
980
N = 1,000, correction factor =
999
9,980
N = 10,000, correction factor =
9,999
b. When the population size (N) equals the sample size (n), then there is
no variation away from the population mean and the standard error will
be zero. As the sample size becomes relatively small compared to the
population size, the correction factor tends towards 1 and the correction
factor becomes less significant in the calculation of the standard error
c. The correction factor tends toward a value of 1 and becomes
progressively less important as a modifying factor when the sample size
decreases relative to the population size
7.23
7.24
200
= 3.8023
249
2.5
)= P(Z > .66) = .2546
a. P(Z >
3.8023
5
)= P(Z < -1.31) = .0951
b. P(Z <
3.8023
10
10
<Z<
)= P(-2.63 < Z < 2.63) = 1 - .9914 = .0086
c. P(
3.8023
3.8023
x =
30
50
7.25
a.
b.
c.
d.
7.26
b.
c.
d.
7.28
(.4)(.6)
= .04899
100
Probability that the sample proportion is greater than .45
.45 .4
z=
= P(Z >1.02) = .1539
.04899
Probability that the sample proportion is less than .29
.29 .4
z=
= P(Z< -2.25) = .0122
.04899
Probability that the sample proportion is between .35 and .51
.35 .4
.51 .4
P(
<Z<
) = P(-1.02 < Z < 2.25) = .8339
.04899
.04899
E ( p ) = .4 p =
a.
7.27
10
450
= .7077
150 599
31 32
)= P(Z > -1.41) = .9207
P(Z >
.7077
33 32
)= P(Z < 1.41) = .9207
P(Z <
.7077
Normal probability graph. Due to the property of symmetry, the area
in the tails of the normal probability distribution are the same.
31 32
33 32
) or P(Z >
) = P(Z < -1.41) or P(Z > 1.41) =
P(Z <
.7077
.7077
.1586
x =
(.25)(.75)
= .0306186
200
a. Probability that the sample proportion is greater than .31
.31 .25
z=
= P(Z > 1.96) = .0250
.0306186
b. Probability that the sample proportion is less than .14
.14 .25
z=
= P(Z < -3.59) = .0002
.0306186
c. Probability that the sample proportion is between .24 and .40
.24 .25
.4 .25
P(
<Z<
) = P(-.33 < Z < 4.90) = .6293
.0306186
.0306186
E ( p ) = .25 p =
(.6)(.4)
= .04899
100
a. Probability that the sample proportion is greater than .66
.66 .6
= P(Z > 1.22) = .1112
z=
.04899
b. Probability that the sample proportion is less than .48
E ( p ) = .60 p =
151
152
th
.48 .6
= P(Z < -2.45) = .0071
.04899
c. Probability that the sample proportion is between .52 and .66
.52 .6
.66 .6
P( z =
<Z< z=
) = P(-1.63 < Z < 1.22) = .8372
.04899
.04899
z=
7.29
7.30
(.5)(.5)
= .01667
900
a. Probability that the sample proportion is greater than .52
.52 .5
= P(Z > 1.20) = .1152
z=
.01667
b. Probability that the sample proportion is less than .46
.46 .5
= P(Z < -2.40) = .0082
z=
.01667
c. Probability that the sample proportion is between .47 and .53
.47 .5
.53 .5
P( z =
<Z< z=
) = P(-1.80 < Z < 1.80) = .9282
.01667
.01667
E ( p ) = .50 p =
a. E ( p ) = .424
(.424)(.576)
b. p 2 =
= .00244
100
c. p = .0494
d. P(Z >
.5 .424
)= P(Z > 1.54) = .0618
.0494
7.31 a. E ( p ) = .75
(.75)(.25)
b. p 2 =
= .001875
100
c. p = .0433
d. P(Z >
7.32
7.33
.8 .75
)= P(Z > 1.15) = .1251
.0433
a. E ( p ) = .20
(.2)(.8)
b. p 2 =
= .000889
180
c. p = .0298
d. P(Z <
.15 .2
)= P(Z < -1.68) = .0465
.0298
a. p =
(.3)(.7)
= .0324
200
.25 .3
)= P(Z < -1.54) = .0618
.0324
.33 .3
)= P(Z > .93) = .1762
c. P(Z >
.0324
.27 .3
.33 .3
<Z<
)= P(-.93 < Z < .93) = .6476
d. P(
.0324
.0324
b. P(Z <
7.34
7.35
7.36
7.37
(.4)(.6)
= .0447
120
.35 .4
.45 .4
<Z<
)= P(-1.12 < Z < 1.12) = .7372
P(
.0447
.0447
p =
(.42)(.58)
= .0285
300
.5 .42
)= P(Z > 2.81) = .0025
b. P(Z >
.0285
.4 .42
.45 .42
<Z<
)= P(-.7 < Z < 1.05) = .6111
c. P(
.0285
.0285
d. .41 - .43
a. p =
(.2)(.8)
= .0351
130
.15 .2
) = P(Z > -1.42) = .9222
b. P(Z >
.0351
.18 .2
.22 .2
<Z<
)= P(-.57 < Z < .57) = .4314
c. P(
.0351
.0351
d. Higher, higher
a. p =
(.3)(.7)
= .02739
280
.32 .3
)= P(Z < .73) = .7673
b. P(Z <
.02739
c. .29 - .31
a. p =
153
154
th
7.38
(.5)(.5)
=
100
.05
7.39
(.5)(.5)
, solving for n = 1067.11. Take a
n
(.25)(.75)
= .0395
120
Difference
, Difference = .0506
b. P(Z > 1.28), 1.28 =
.0395
Difference
, Difference = .065
c. P(Z < -1.645), -1.645 =
.0395
Difference
, Difference = .0409
d. P(Z > 1.036), 1.036 =
.0395
a. p =
7.41
p =
.56 .5
(.5)(.5)
= .04082, P(Z >
)= P(Z > 1.47) = .0708
.04082
150
7.42
p =
.58 .5
(.5)(.5)
= .03162, P(Z >
)= P(Z > 2.53) = .0057
.03162
250
7.43
7.44
(.55)(.45) 419
= .05065
81
499
.5 .55
)= P(Z < -.99) = .1611
P(Z <
.05065
p =
211
= .3996
528
(.3996)(.6004) 408
p =
= .03934
120
527
.33 .3996
)= P(Z < -1.77) = .0384
b. P(Z <
.03934
.5 .3996
.6 .3996
<Z<
)= P(2.55 < Z < 5.09) = .5000 - .4946 =
c. P(
.03934
.03934
.0054
a. p =
239
(.5457)(.4543) 358
= .5457, p =
= .05038
438
80
437
.5 .5457
)= P(Z < -.91) = .1814
b. P(Z <
.05038
.5 .5457
.6 .5457
<Z<
)= P(-.91 < Z < 1.08) = .6785
c. P(
.05038
.05038
7.45 a. p =
7.46
.1 .122
(.2709)(.7291)
= P(Z < -.61) = .2709, p =
= .04969
.036
81
.5 .2709
) = P(Z > 4.61) .0000
P(Z >
.04969
P(Z <
7.47
7.48
=
13.85
< 13.85 s 2 < 57.702
P(s 2 > k ) = P
24,.95
2
100
=
36.42
P(s 2 > k ) = P
24,.05
2
100
2
50
155
156
th
2
50
7.50 P (
(n 1) s 2
>
19(3.1)
) = P ( 2 (19) > 33.66) = between .01 and .025 (.0201
1.75
exactly)
11(2.5) 2
) = P ( 2 (11) < 23.79) = between .975 and .99
2
2
(1.7)
(.9864 exactly)
(n 1) s 2 11(1)1
>
) = P ( 2 (11) > 3.81) = between .975 and .99 (.9751
b. P (
2
2
(1.7)
exactly)
7.51.1 a. P (
7.52 a. P (
(n 1) s 2
(n 1) s 2
<
>
15(3, 000) 2
) = P ( 2 (15) > 21.6) = greater than .1 (.1187
2
(2,500)
exactly)
(n 1) s 2 15(1,500) 2
<
) = P ( 2 (15) < 5.4) = between .01 and .025
b. P (
2
2
(2,500)
(.0118 exactly)
7.53
7.54
7.55
(n 1) s 2
19(100)
) = P( 2 (19) < 7.6) = about .01 ( .0097 exactly)
250
2
(n 1) s
19(500)
>
) = P( 2 (19) > 38) = between .005 and .01 (.0059
b. P (
2
250
exactly)
a. P (
a. P (
(n 1) s 2
a. P (
(n 1) s 2
<
24(75) 2
) = P ( 2 (24) < 13.5) = between .025 and .05
(100) 2
2
(.0428 exactly)
(n 1) s 2 24(150) 2
>
) = P ( 2 (24) > 54) = less than .005 (.0004
b. P (
(100) 2
2
exactly)
<
29(3.5) 2
) = P ( 2 (29) > 17.54) = between .95 and .975
(4.5) 2
2
(.9531 exactly) yes
>
b. P (
(n 1) s 2
29(6) 2
) = P ( 2 (29) < 51.56) = between .99 and .995
2
2
(4.5)
7.56
Descriptive Statistics: C20, C21, C22, C23, C24, C25, C26, C27, ...
Variable
C20
C21
C22
C23
C24
C25
C26
C27
C28
C29
C30
C31
C32
C33
C34
Mean
3.00
4.00
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.00
5.00
6.00
6.0000
6.500
7.00
6.500
7.00
7.500
5.50
Variance
2.00
8.00
8.00
12.50
18.00
2.00
2.00
8.00
0.000000000
0.500
2.00
0.500
2.00
0.500
4.50
x=
Mean
4.72
StDev
5.26
Variance
27.62
Sum
70.80
70.8
= 4.72 E ( s 2 ) = 15(3.91667)
= 4.1964
(14)
15
7.57
7.58
7.59
a. P(
2
(14)
14 s 2 x
> 29.14) = .01, 29.14 =
, sx = 2.597
(1.8) 2
14 s 2 x
, sx = 1.141
(1.8) 2
< 6.57) = .05, P ( 2 (14) > 23.68) = .05
between 6.57 =
14 s 2 a
14 s 2b
,
s
=
1.233,
and
23.68
=
, sb = 2.341
a
(1.8) 2
(1.8) 2
157
158
th
7.60
7.61
P(
(n 1) s 2
>
19(2.05)
) = P ( 2 (19) > 25.97) = more than 10% (.1310
1.5
<
24(12.2)
) = P( 2 (24) < 19.01) = less than .90 (.5438 exactly)
15.4
exactly)
7.62
P(
(n 1) s 2
7.63 A sample mean can be thought of as a random variable since there are a
very large number of possible samples, sample size n, that can be drawn
from a population. Each of those samples is likely to have a different
sample mean. Therefore, all possible sample means, sample size n, will
have its own probability distribution. This probability distribution is made
up of all possible sample means calculated from all possible samples of a
certain size drawn from a specific population
7.64
6!
= 15 possible samples
2!4!
b. (41, 39), (41, 35), (41, 35), (41, 33), (41, 38), (39, 35), (39, 35), (39,
33), (39, 38), (35, 35), (35, 33), (35, 38), (35, 33), (35, 38), (33, 38)
2
c. 34 PX (34) = 34 = 4.5333
15
35
= 2.3333
35PX (35) =
15
35.5
35.5PX (35.5) =
= 2.3667
15
36
= 2.4
36 PX (36) =
15
2
36.5PX (36.5) = 36.5 = 4.8667
15
3
37 PX (37) = 37 = 7.4
15
a. C26 =
2
= 5.0667
15
38.5
38.5PX (38.5) =
= 2.5667
15
39.5
= 2.6333
39.5PX (39.5) =
15
40
= 2.6667
40 PX (40) =
15
d. The mean of the sampling distribution of the sample mean is
xPx ( x ) = 36.8333 which is exactly equal to the population mean:
38PX (38) = 38
1
xi = 36.8333 . This is the result expected from the Central Limit
N
Theorem.
7.65 The central limit theorem states that as the sample size increases, the
sampling distribution of the sample mean tends toward the normal
probability distribution, allowing use of the normal probability distribution
for estimating population means.
450 420
) = P(Z > 1.5) = .0668
100 25
400 420
450 420
b. P(
<Z<
) = P(-1 < Z < 1.5) = .7745
100 25
100 25
x 420
c. P(Z > 1.28) = .1, 1.28 =
, x = 445.6
100 25
x 420
d. P(Z < -1.28) = .1, -1.28 =
, x = 394.4
100 25
7.66 a. P ( Z >
24 s 2
, s = 123.1868
(100) 2
24 s 2
, s = 75.966
(100) 2
g. Smaller. A larger sample size would lead to a smaller standard error
and the graph of the normal distribution would be tighter with less area
in the tails.
65 60
) = P(Z > 1) = .1587
10 4
Xi 60
b. P(Z < -1.28) = .1, -1.28 =
, Xi = 53.6
10 4
159
160
th
3s 2
, s = 14.4337
(10) 2
3s 2 x
, s = 4.4121
(10) 2
65 60
) = P(Z > 1.0) = .1587
10 4
Use the binomial formula: P(X >2) = P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)
C34 (.8413)3 (.1587)1 + C44 (.8413) 4 (.1587)0 = .87896
e. P(Z >
19 14.8
) = P(Z > 2) = .0228
6.3 9
10.6 14.8
19 14.8
b. P(
<Z<
) = P(-2 < Z < 2) = .9544
6.3 9
6.3 9
X 14.8
c. P(Z < -.675) = .25, -.675 = i
, Xi = 13.3825
6.3 9
8s 2
, s = 8.1414
(6.3) 2
e. Smaller
1,500 1, 600
) = P(Z > -1.00) = .8413
400 16
X 1, 600
b. P(Z > 1.04) = .15, 1.04 = i
, Xi = 1,704
400 16
15s 2
, s = 487.825
(400) 2
2x N n
n N 1
= n 2 x
N n 2
x=
N 1
N x
(n 1)
N 1
N 1
1
1
N 2 x
2
2
Therefore, E[
( X i X ) ] = n 1 E[ ( X i X ) ] = N 1
n 1
2
(nN n N + n) =
120 100
) = P(Z > 2) = .0228
30 9
X 100
, Xi = 91.57
b. P(Z < -.843) = .20, -.843 = i
30 9
8s 2
, s = 17.525
(30) 2
.7 .8
) = P(Z < -1.94) = .0262
(.8)(.2) / 60
b. Use the binomial formula: 6(.7) = 4.2, P(X 4) = 1 P(X > 4) = 16(.8)5(.2)-(.8)6 = .3446
30, 000 29, 000
) = P(Z > .61) = .2709
c. P(Z >
4, 000 6
30, 000 29, 000
d. (.8)P(Z >
) = (.8)P(Z > .25) = (.8)(.4013) = .3210
4, 000
15s 2
, s = 2.5701
(1.8) 2
Difference
b. P(Z > 1.04) = .15, 1.04 =
, Difference = .468
1.8 16
Difference
c. P(Z > 1.96) = .025, 1.96 =
, Difference = .882
1.8 16
7.74 P(
(n 1) s 2
.6 .5
) = P(Z > 2) = .0228
(.5)(.5) /100
.4 .5
.55 .5
b. P(
<Z<
) = P(-1 < Z < 1) = .6826
(.5)(.5) /100
(.5)(.5) /100
c. Replace 100 with 10 in parts a. and b. The answer will be larger for
part a. and smaller for part b.
P(Z <
29.5 30
) = P(Z < -1.54) = .0618
1.3 16
161
162
7.78
th
(.4)(.6)
= .03098
250
a. x =
p .4
, p = .3739
.03098
p .4
, p = .4397
b. P(Z < 1.28) = .9, 1.28 =
.03098
Difference
, Difference = .0322
c. P(Z > 1.04) = .35, 1.04 =
.03098
7.79
7.80
.28 .2
) = P(Z < 3.46) = .9997
(.2)(.8) / 300
.28 .4
b. P(Z <
) = P(Z < -4.24) .0000
(.4)(.6) / 300
a. P(Z >
a. P (
(n 1) s 2
>
24(4, 000) 2
) = P( 2 (24) > 8.82) = more than .99 (.9979
2
(6, 600)
exactly)
(n 1) s 2 24(8, 000) 2
b. P (
<
) = P ( 2 (24) < 35.62) = between .9 and .95
2
2
(6, 600)
(.9354 exactly)
7.81
P(
(n 1) s 2
2
exactly)
>
19(2.5) 2
) = P( 2 (19) > 29.69) = between .05 and .1 (.0559
2
(2)