Portfolio Revision
Portfolio Revision
Portfolio Revision
Need for Portfolio Revision The need for portfolio revision might simply
arise because the market witnessed some significant changes since the
creation of the portfolio. Further, the need for portfolio revision may arise
because of some investor-related factors such as
Availability of additional wealth,
Change in the risk attitude and the utility function of the investor,
Change in the investment goals of the investors.
The need to liquidate a part of the portfolio to provide funds for
some alternative uses.
The other valid reasons for portfolio revision such as short-term
price fluctuations in the market do also exist. There are, thus,
numerous factors, which may be broadly called market related and
investor-related, which spell need for portfolio revision.
An individual at certain point of time might feel the need to invest
more. The need for portfolio revision arises when an individual has
some additional money to invest.
Change in investment goal also gives rise to revision in portfolio.
Depending on the cash flow, an individual can modify his financial
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OBJECTIVE
performance
measurement
and
performance
evaluation.
Portfolio evaluation is the process of measuring and comparing the returns earned
on a portfolio with the returns for a benchmark portfolio. In other words the
portfolio evaluation identifies whether the performance of a portfolio has been
superior or inferior to other portfolios. It may be noted that the returned of the
portfolio included both the capital gain and the revenue income.
Evaluation a portfolio performance is not restricted to calculation of average
returns of the portfolio there are several factor that should be incorporated in the
evaluation procedure would give a true ranking of the performance of different
portfolios.
Some of the factors that need attention in the evaluation procedure are:
Risk-Return Trade Off: The underlying philosophy of the entire investment
analysis is the risk-return trade off. Risk and Return are two sides of the
same coin. The performance evaluation should be based on both and not on
either of them .Risk without return level and return without risk level are
impossible to be interpreted .No doubt, investors are risk-averse .But it does
not means that they are not ready to assume risk. They are ready to take risk
provided the return is commensurate. So, in the portfolio performance
evaluation, risk-return trade-off be taken care of.
Appropriate Market Index: Portfolio performance is evaluated in relative
terms. The performance of one portfolio is benchmarked either against some
other portfolio or against some carefully selected market index. There are
number of benchmarks available and the selection must be based on careful
analysis.
Transaction cost.
Taxes.
Statutory Stipulation.
No Single Formula.
Transaction cost
Buying and selling of securities involves transaction cost such as
commission and brokerage frequent buying and selling of securities for
portfolio revision may be push up transaction cost there by reducing the gain
from portfolio revision hence the transaction cost involved in portfolio
revision may act as a constraint to timely revision of portfolio.
Taxes
Taxes are payable on the capital gain arising from sale of securities. Usually
long term capitals gained are taxed at a lower rate than short term capital
gain. To qualify a long term capital gain,a security must be held by an
investor for a period 12 months before the sale .Frequent sale of securities in
the course of portfolio revision or a adjustment will result in short term
capital gain which would be taxed at a higher rate compared to the long term
capital gain. The higher tax on short term capital gain may act as constraints
to frequent portfolio revision
Statutory Stipulation
The largest portfolios in every country are managed by investment
companies and mutual fund. This institutional are normally governed by
statutory stipulation regarding their investment activity .These stipulation
often act as constraints in timely portfolio revision.
NO Single Formula
Portfolio revision is difficult and time consuming exercise .The
methodology to follow for portfolio revision is also not clearly established.
Different approach may be adopted buying stock when price are low and
selling them with higher .This techniques are referred to as formal plans.
1. Systematic risk.
2. Unsystematic risk.
The meaning of systematic and unsystematic risk in finance:
1. Systematic risk is uncontrollable by an organization and macro in nature.
2. Unsystematic risk is controllable by an organization and micro in nature
A. SYSTEMATIC RISK
Reinvestment rate risk: Reinvestment rate risk results from fact that the
interest or dividend earned from an investment can't be reinvested with the
same rate of return as it was acquiring earlier
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B. UNSYSTEMATIC RISK
Unsystematic risk is due to the influence of internal factors prevailing within an
organization. Such factors are normally controllable from an organization's point of
view.It is a micro in nature as it affects only a particular organization. It can be
planned, so that necessary actions can be taken by the organization to mitigate
(reduce the effect of) the risk.
3. Operational risk
1. Business or liquidity risk: Business risk is also known as liquidity risk. It is
so, since it emanates (originates) from the sale and purchase of securities
affected by business cycles, technological changes, etc.
2. Financial or credit risk : Financial risk is also known as credit risk. It arises
due to change in the capital structure of the organization. The capital
structure mainly comprises of three ways by which funds are sourced for the
projects. These are as follows:
a) Owned funds. For e.g. share capital.
b) Borrowed funds. For e.g. loan funds.
c) Retained earnings. For e.g. reserve and surplus.
3. Operational risk: Operational risks are the business process risks failing due
to human errors. This risk will change from industry to industry. It occurs
due to breakdowns in the internal procedures, people, policies and systems.
The types of operational risk are depicted and listed below.
Model risk: Model risk is involved in using various models to value
financial securities. It is due to probability of loss resulting from the
weaknesses in the financial-model used in assessing and managing a risk
People risk: People risk arises when people do not follow the organizations
procedures, practices and/or rules. That is, they deviate from their expected
behavior
Legal risk : Legal risk arises when parties are not lawfully competent to
enter an agreement among themselves. Furthermore, this relates to the
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TREYNOR MEASURE
Jack L. Treynor was the first to provide investors with a composite measure of
portfolio performance that also included risk. Treynor's objective was to find a
performance measure that could apply to all investors, regardless of their personal
risk preferences. He suggested that there were really two components of risk: the
risk produced by fluctuations in the market and the risk arising from the
fluctuations
of
individual
securities.
Treynor introduced the concept of the security market line, which defines the
relationship between portfolio returns and market rates of returns, whereby the
slope of the line measures the relative volatility between the portfolio and the
market (as represented by beta). The beta coefficient is simply the volatility
measure of a stock portfolio to the market itself. The greater the line's slope, the
better
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the
risk-return
tradeoff.
The Treynor measure, also known as the reward to volatility ratio, can be easily
defined as:
(Portfolio Return Risk-Free Rate) / Beta
The numerator identifies the risk premium and the denominator corresponds with
the risk of the portfolio. The resulting value represents the portfolio's return per
unit risk.
The basic idea is that to analyze the performance of an investment manager you
must look not only at the overall return of a portfolio, but also at the risk of that
portfolio. For example, if there are two mutual funds that both have a 12% return, a
rational investor will want the fund that is less risky. Jensen's measure is one of the
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ways to help determine if a portfolio is earning the proper return for its level of
risk. If the value is positive, then the portfolio is earning excess returns. In other
words, a positive value for Jensen's alpha means a fund manager has "beat the
market" with his or her stock picking skills.
In finance, Jensen alpha is used to determine the abnormal return of security or
portfolio of security or portfolio of securities over the theoretical expected return.
The security could be any asset such as stock, bond or derivatives. The theoretical
return is predicated by a market model; most commonly the Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM) model .The market model uses statistical methods to predict the
appropriate risk-adjusted return of an asset. The CAPM for instance uses beta as a
multiplier.
Jensens alpha was first used as a measures in the evaluation of mutual fund
managers by Michael Jensen in 1968.The CAPM return is supposed to be risk
adjusted, which means it takes account of the relatives riskiness of the asset. After
all riskier assets will have higher expected returns than less risky asset. If an assets
return is even higher than the risk adjusted return, that asset is said to have
positive alpha or abnormal returns. Investors are constantly seeking investment
that have higher alpha.
Jensen alpha=portfolio return-[Risk Free Rate + Portfolio Beta *(Market ReturnRisk Free Rate)]
Since Eugene Fame, many academics believe financial markets are too efficient to
allow for repeatedly earning positive Alpha, unless by chance .To the contrary,
empirical studies of mutual fund spearheaded by Russ Wermers usually confirm
mangers stock
Use in quantitative finance
Jensens alpha is a statistic that is commonly used in empirical finance to assess the
margin return associated with unit exposure to a given strategy.Generalizing the
above definition to the multifactor setting Jensens alpha is a measure of the
marginal return associated with an additional strategy that is not explained by
existing factors.
We obtain the CAPM alpha if we consider excess market return as the only factor.
If we add in the Fama-French factors, we obtain the 3 factor alpha and so on. If
Jensens alpha is alpha is significant band positive, then the strategy being
considered has a history of generating returns on top of what would be expected
based on other factor alone .
For example in the 3 factor case we may regress momentum factor returns on 3
factor return to find that momentum generates a significant premium on top of size,
value and market returns.
PORTFOLIO ASSESSMENT
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goal.
Enabling teachers and students to share the responsibility for setting learning
process
Facilitating cooperative learning activities including peer evaluation and
conferences.
Enabling measurement of multiple dimensions of student progress by
including different type of data and materials.
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Portfolio performance is evaluated over a time interval of at least four year, with
return measured for a number of period with in the interval typically monthly or
quarterly .This provides a fairly adequate sample size for statistical evaluation
.Sometimes, however a shorter time interval must be used in order to avoid
examining a portfolio returns that were earned by a different investment manager.
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The example to follow will involve 16 quarterly observations for tractability .In
practice; one would prefer monthly observation if only four years were to be
analyzed.
In the simplest situation where the client neither deposit nor withdraws money
from the portfolio during a time period, calculation of the portfolios periodic
return in straight forward .All that is required is that the market value of the
portfolio be know at two point of time the beginning and the end of the period.
Performance Evaluation Techniques
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
An obvious way to look at the performance of the portfolio is to find out the
reward per unit of risk undertaken .A risk- free security earn only risk- free
return .However the return earned over and above the risk- free return is the risk
premium and is earned for bearing risk .The risk premium may be divided by the
risk factor to find out the reward per unit of risk undertaken. This is also known as
reward to risk ratio. There are two methods of measuring reward to risk ratio as
follows:
A. Sharpe Ratio
This ration is also called Reward to variability Ration.IN this ratio, the
risk is measured in terms of standard deviation.
The Sharpe Index measures the risk premium of portfolio relative to
the total amount of risk in the portfolio. This index measures the slope
of the risk return line. The Sharpe Index helps summarizing the risk
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The differential return earned by the fund manager may be due to difference in the
exposure to risk. Hence it is imperative to adjust the return for the risk. For this
purpose there are essentially two major methods of assessing risk-adjusted
performance:
a. Return per unit of risk
b. Differential return per unit of risk
a. Return per unit of risk:
The first of the risk adjusted performance measure is the type that assesses the
performance of a fund in terms of return per unit of risk. We can adjust returns for
risk in several ways to develop a relative risk-adjusted measure for ranking fund
performance.
Sharpe Ratio:
One approach is to calculate portfolios return in excess of the risk free return and
divide the excess return by the portfolios standard deviation. This risk adjusted
return is called Sharpe ratio. This ratio named after William Sharpe, thus measures
Reward to Variability.
This equation calls for three terms:
a. Annualized return of the fund
b. Annualized risk free return
c. Annualized standard deviation.
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diversified portfolio one without any unsystematic risk, the two measures give
identical ranking, because the total variance of a completely diversified portfolio is
its systematic variance. Alternatively a poorly diversified portfolio could have a
high ranking on the basis of Treynor ratio and a low ranking on the basis of Sharpe
ratio. The difference in rank is because of the difference in diversification.
Therefore, both ratios provide complementary yet different information, and both
should be used.
b. Differential Return:
The second category of risk-adjusted performance measure is referred to as
differential return measure. The underlying objective of this category is to calculate
the return that should be expected of the fund scheme given its realized risk and to
compare that with the return actually realized over the period.
Calculation of alpha is a fairly simple exercise. The intercept term in the regression
equation is the Alpha. This number is usually very close to zero. A positive alpha
means that return tends to be higher than expected given the beta statistic.
Conversely, a negative alpha indicates that the fund is an under-performer. Alpha
measures the value-added of the portfolio given its level of systematic risk.
This measure of performance measurement is popularly known as Jensen alpha.
The Jensen measure is also suitable for evaluating a portfolios performance in
combination with other portfolios because it is based on systematic risk rather than
total risk.
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Appraisal Ratio:
If we wish to determine whether or not an observed alpha is due to skill or chance
we can compute an appraisal ratio by dividing alpha by the standard error of the
regression:
To interpret this ratio notice that the in the numerator represents the fund
managers ability to use his skill and information to generate a portfolio return that
differs from the benchmark against which his performance is being measured (e.g.
BSE Sensitive Index or Nifty).
The denominator measures the amount of residual (unsystematic) risk that the
investor incurred in pursuit of those excess returns. Thus this ratio can be viewed
as a benefit to cost ratio that assess the quality of fund managers skill.
M2 Measure:
Franco Modigliani and his granddaughter Lea Modigliani in the year 1997 derived
another risk-adjusted performance measure by adjusting the risk of a particular
portfolio so that it matches the risk of the market portfolio and then calculate the
appropriate return for that portfolio. It operates on the concept that a schemes
portfolio can be levered or de-levered to reflect a standard deviation that is
identical with that of the market. The return that this adjusted portfolio earns is
called M2.
Since the standard deviations have been equalized, M2 can be directly compared
with the return in the market. A high (low) M2 indicates that the portfolio has
outperformed (under-performed) the market portfolio.
The measures discussed above are extensively used in the mutual fund industry to
comment on the performance of equity schemes. The same measures can be used
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CONCLUSION
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An individual at certain point of time might feel the need to invest more. The need
for portfolio revision arises when an individual has some additional money to
invest .Portfolio revision involves changing the existing mix of securities .The
objective of portfolio revision is similar to the objective of portfolio selection i.e
maximizing the return for a given level of risk or minimizing the risk for a given a
level of return .The process of portfolio revision is also similar to the process of
portfolio selction.This is particularly true where active portfolio revision strategy is
followed.It calls for reallocation of fund among different industries through
industry analysis and finally selling and buying of stock within the industries
through company analysis .Where passive portfolio revision strategy is followed ,
use of mechanical formula pan may be made.
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