Volatility

Stocks & Commodities V.
23:2 (14-20): The Truth About Volatility by Jim Berg

TRADING SYSTEMS
Targeting Price Areas
The Truth About Volatility

Many indicators can help identify
volatility. But can you use them to
target specific price areas for entry
signals, trailing stops, and profittaking opportunities?
ypically, volatility indicators are used to determine the direction,

June
July
August
September
October
November
De
strength, and momentum of a security. The FIGURE 1: POPULAR VOLATILITY INDICATOR. Here you see the average true range (ATR) overlaid on a price chart.
average true range (ATR), one of the
more popular volatility indicators, measures volatil- ANALYZE IT
ity by looking at the average price ranges over the Typically, when analyzing ATR volatility, you would
past x number of periods, taking gaps into account. focus on volatility at tops and bottoms and during
price consolidation and retracements. However, if
The true range indicator is the greatest of the you incorporate the ATR into a few simple formulas, you may be able to identify where to enter and
following for each period:
exit trades, and make a reasonable profit. Before
going any further, I think its fair to say that I apply
my ATR volatility analysis only to securities that
The distance from todays high to
are in a rising trend. After all, it is the path of least
todays low
resistance. Who wouldnt want to buy securities
The distance from yesterdays close
when they are rising and sell them when they are no
to todays high
longer in a rising trend?
The distance from yesterdays close
to todays low.
When is a security in a rising trend?
Most trading software packages include ATR in

their list of indicators, which you can usually overlay
on top of a bar chart, as can be seen in Figure 1.
When it is making higher highs

and higher lows on a weekly chart
When closing prices are above
the 34-week moving average
When the 34-week moving
average is rising.
by Jim Berg
Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.
METASTOCK
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
TOM CLIFTON
Stocks & Commodities V. 23:2 (14-20): The Truth About Volatility by Jim Berg
(E)
55
(D)
The price movements in the weekly chart
of The Boeing Co. (BA) in Figure 2 certainly meet these criteria. If you look at the
chart, youll see that higher highs formed at
(A), (B), (C), (D), and (E). Higher lows
formed at (F), (G), (H), (I), (J), and (K).
Prices closed above the moving average,
which started rising in June 2003. The
point at which the moving average started
rising would have been a good entry point
for any long trade, but its possible to miss
that trade. If you did miss the opportunity to
enter a trade at this point, where will you
find subsequent entry signals?
50
(K)
(C)
(A)
(J)
(B)
45
40
(I)
35
(H)
(F)
(G)
30
25
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005
FIGURE 2: A SECURITY IN A RISING TREND. Price movement meets the criteria for a rising trend.
ENTERING TRADES
Next, I bring up a daily chart and look for
temporary oversold conditions in the ris55
ing security. To do this I apply the relative
50
strength index (RSI), an oscillator I am
45
sure you are familiar with. The RSI compares the average of rising price change to
40
falling price changes. I use a seven-day
35
time period, but you may choose to use a
different one. You can see the RSI plotted
30
in the lower chart in Figure 3.
25
A security is considered to be potentially
oversold when the RSI oscillator drops to
50
30. As you can see, this occurred on six
occasions after the June weekly signal. It
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
happened in July, September, and December 2003, and March, July, and October FIGURE 3: USING ADDITIONAL INDICATORS. If you missed the first opportunity, have no fear. Using other indicators
such as the RSI may help you enter at a later stage and still make successful trades.
2004. The oversold areas are circled.
The addition of the RSI prepares me to
purchase shares in BA once prices resume
their rising movement. Since I am only going to enter the
market after the RSI indicates that price has reached an overC<(HHV(H,20)-2*ATR(10))
sold area, I will always miss the beginning of every move. My
entry point occurs when the closing price has moved a distance
(See sidebar, Volatility entry advisor for MetaStock.
that is equivalent to twice the average true range of the last 10
Note: Exit signal is altered for MetaStock code.)
days from the recent low. I have programmed my software
package to paint the bars blue once this criteria is met and red
when the closing price has moved a distance equivalent to
In Figure 3, you see the RSI oversold areas and the corretwice the ATR of the last 10 days from the recent high.
sponding blue bar volatility entry levels (arrows). I placed my
initial stop just under the recent low, but once prices continued to rise, I applied a volatility trailing stop. After two
Entry signal: If the close is greater than the lowest
consecutive closes below the trailing stop, I exited the posilow value (based on the low of the last 20 days) plus
tion. I placed the stop at two times the ATR subtracted from
twice the 10-day ATR, then enter a long position.
the close.
C>(LLV(L,20) + 2*ATR(10))
C2*ATR(10)
Exit signal: If the close is less than the highest high

value (based on the high of the last 20 days) minus
twice the 10-day ATR, then exit your position.
This indicator rises and falls with the level of volatility and
higher or lower closing prices, and hence, I dont want to lower
the trailing stop. Instead, I adjust the formula to stay at the
55
50
Volatility entries and exits

will help maintain the
discipline necessary to
become a successful trader.
highest level reached for a period of 15
days or weeks, depending on which time
frame I am using for the chart.
HHV(C-2*ATR(10),15)
40
Weekly
entry
Exit
signal
35
30
Volatility
trailing stop
S O N
D 2003
M A M
J J
S O
N D 2004
25
M A
M J J
A S O
N D
200
FIGURE 4: VOLATILITY TRAILING STOPS. This trailing stop adjusts so it is at the highest level reached in the last
15 periods.
In Figure 4, you can see a weekly chart

of BA showing the volatility trailing stop.
Weekly exit signals were triggered in
March and October 2004 on the second
consecutive close below the volatility trailing stop. If you are a shorter-term trader,
you may prefer applying the volatility
trailing stop on a daily chart, just to get
quicker exit signals (Figure 5).
JB VOLATILITY PROFIT TAKER

When I am trading for a shorter term, I use
an additional indicator that I call the JB
volatility profit taker. This indicator helps
identify profit-taking opportunities by
looking to see when a security has moved
too far, too fast. It combines a moving
average of the highs with ATR volatility:
45
Exit
signal
52
51
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
Volatility
trailing stop
April
May
June
July
FIGURE 5: TRADING IN A SHORTER TIME FRAME. In such a situation, you are better off applying the volatility
trailing stop on a daily chart.
VOLATILITY ENTRY ADVISOR FOR METASTOCK

C>(LLV(L,20)+2*ATR(10))
C<(HHV(H,20)+2*ATR(10))
TOOLS, EXPERT ADVISOR, NEW, ENTER NAME, HIGHLIGHTS,
NEW, NAME(BUY), TYPE IN CONDITION(FORMULA),OK, NEW,
COLOR(RED), NAME(SELL), TYPE IN CONDITION(FORMULA),
OK
TO APPLY TO CHART: TOOLS, HIGHLIGHT ADVISOR, ATTACH,
OK
VOLATILITY TRAILING STOP INDICATOR
THE VOLATILITY TRAILING STOP INDICATOR(ABOVE) OFTEN

HAS FALLING VALUES AND YOU MIGHT NOT WANT TO LOWER
YOUR STOP. THE TRAILING STOP P15 INDICATOR WILL MAINTAIN THE STOP AT THE HIGHEST VALUE OVER THE PAST 15
DAYS.
TOOLS, INDICATOR BUILDER, NEW, ENTER NAME, ENTER
HHV(P,15) IN FORMULA WINDOW, OK
TO APPLY TO CHART: CHOOSE FROM QUICK LIST, DRAG AND
DROP OVER VOLATILITY TRAILING STOP INDICATOR LINE
Combine ATR stop with P15:
HHV(C - 2*ATR(10),15)
C-2*ATR(10)
TOOLS, INDICATOR BUILDER, NEW, ENTER NAME, TYPE IN
FORMULA, OK
VOLATILITY PROFIT INDICATOR

Mov(H,13,E)+2*ATR(10)

DROP OVER CHART
TOOLS, INDICATOR BUILDER, NEW, ENTER NAME, TYPE IN

FORMULA, OK
TRAILING STOP P15

HHV(P,15)

DROP OVER CHART
JB
JB Volatility Profit Taker = Mov(H,13,E)
(C)
+ 2*ATR(10)
A clear close above the JB volatility

profit taker signals a profit-taking opportunity, and I exit the position on the following opening price.
In Figure 6, you see a daily chart of
Boeing (BA) showing the trailing stop
signals and the profit-taking opportunities. At point A, the RSI(7) reached oversold levels. A volatility entry signal occurred on March 29, 2004 (B). I would
purchase shares at the open of the following day at $39.80. The initial stop is below
the recent low at $37.97. A profit-taking
opportunity occurs on June 16, when the
closing price moves above the JB profit
taker (C). As a result, I would close the
position on the next days open at $49.58.
Two consecutive closes below the volatility trailing stop signals an exit 13 days
later at point (D). In this case, the two exit
signals occurred at similar price levels.
Keep in mind that the JB profit taker often
signals exits after a sharp price rise before
a correction, as shown in Figure 7, the
chart of United Auto Group (UAG).
APPLYING VOLATILITY
(D)
JB volatility
profit taker
(B) Volatility entry

Initial stop
Volatility
trailing stop
(A)
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
50
April
May
June
July
FIGURE 6: JB VOLATILITY PROFIT TAKER. Here you see the trailing stop signals and the profit-taking opportunities.
JB profit taker signals
Initial stop
Initial stop
33.5
33.0
32.5
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
29.0
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
26.0
25.5
50
Identifying where to enter and exit a trade is
an important component of a successful
April
May
June
July
trading system, but developing a consistent
trading system is often a struggle, especially
for beginning traders. As we have all learned FIGURE 7: STOPS AND EXIT SIGNALS. The JB volatility profit taker tends to give exit signals after a sharp price rise.
the hard way, choosing entry points, trailing
stops, and profit-taking opportunities, all randomly based on Jim Berg, the author of The Share Traders Handbook, is a
opinion, is fraught with danger. You may believe you are former broker, private trader, and lecturer with more than 20
applying common sense when trading what you feel, but as your years experience in the investment industry.
emotions rise and fall, you will lose money. Fear, greed, and
denial are not the investment tools you want to use in a disci- See our Traders Tips section for program code implementing Jim
plined investment strategy. Volatility entries and exits will Bergs technique.
indeed help maintain the discipline necessary to become a
successful trader. You can set specific entries, trailing stops, and See Traders Glossary for definition
S&C
profit-taking opportunities.

Volatility

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Volatility

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Volatility

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

How does the author define a security being in an uptrend?

How does the author define a security being in an uptrend?

What indicators does the author use to identify potential entry signals?

What indicators does the author use to identify potential entry signals?

Stocks & Commodities V.

23:2 (14-20): The Truth About Volatility by Jim Berg

Targeting Price Areas

The Truth About Volatility

ypically, volatility indicators are used to determine the direction,

Most trading software packages include ATR in

When it is making higher highs

Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.

Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005

Exit signal: If the close is less than the highest high

Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.

Volatility entries and exits

In Figure 4, you can see a weekly chart

JB VOLATILITY PROFIT TAKER

VOLATILITY ENTRY ADVISOR FOR METASTOCK

VOLATILITY TRAILING STOP INDICATOR

THE VOLATILITY TRAILING STOP INDICATOR(ABOVE) OFTEN

VOLATILITY PROFIT INDICATOR

TO APPLY TO CHART: CHOOSE FROM QUICK LIST, DRAG AND

TOOLS, INDICATOR BUILDER, NEW, ENTER NAME, TYPE IN

TRAILING STOP P15

TO APPLY TO CHART: CHOOSE FROM QUICK LIST, DRAG AND

Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.

JB Volatility Profit Taker = Mov(H,13,E)

A clear close above the JB volatility

(B) Volatility entry

JB profit taker signals

Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.

You might also like