The fallen king?

Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa

After a double whammy of electoral defeats this year, will spoiler-in-chief be the
only role left for Mahinda Rajapaksa to play on the political stage?

Thursday, 27 August 2015

The small village of Medamulana, nestled deep inside the Hambantota
District, is a place of tranquility and scenic beauty. Tiny lakes glisten in the
bright sunshine, studded with bright pink lotuses in full bloom. Endlessly
green paddy fields extend as far as the eye can see, coconut trees dance
and rustle in the wind. It is as idyllic as rural Sri Lanka gets.
Unfortunately, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa was not the retiring
sort. Not for him the quiet life. Not for him elder statesmanship and
precious family time. So instead, seven months after his humiliating defeat
to his former health minister and presidential challenger, Mahinda
Rajapaksa decided to craft the story of his political comeback.
Mahinda Rajapaksa is a political animal, says Jayadeva Uyangoda,

Professor of Political Science at Colombo University. He cannot afford to be

out of politics.
According to Professor Uyangoda, mounting allegations of corruption and
the investigation of those claims by the authorities as part of the
Government anti-corruption drive, pushed the former President back into
the political fray. To fight back against these allegations and protect his
family, Mahinda Rajapaksa will continue to play a role in politics, the
political scientist opines.
The Rajapaksa comeback project had short-term and long-term goals. In the
short term, his return was to insulate his loyalists within the UPFA from the
wrath of the partys new leadership, which was threatening to withhold
nominations to corrupt elements that had surrounded the Rajapaksa-led
SLFP for nine years. A UPFA victory with Rajapaksa at the helm of the
campaign would also see an end to pesky corruption investigations dogging
the former ruling family, threatening not only the ex-Presidents favourite
sibling but also his wife and sons. The-long term project was more sinister;
if the UPFA secured a majority and Rajapaksa pressured President Sirisena
into appointing him premier, in spite of pre-election pledges to the contrary,
the former President would once more be one step away from the
presidency.
Furthermore, the UPFAs Rajapaksa faction, which fought tooth and nail
against the 19th Amendment, specifically on the grounds that it enhanced
the powers of the Prime Minister, campaigned heavily to make Mahinda
Rajapaksa Sri Lankas first executive Prime Minister. On campaign stages,
Rajapaksa acolytes promised that President Sirisena would be redundant
when his predecessor took office as Prime Minister.
Fatal blows
Those dreams ended on 17 August, when voters rejected his politics for the
second time this year. The UPFA secured enough seats to ensure the party
remained a formidable Opposition in Parliament, and within this group,
Rajapaksa will remain an equally formidable force. But Mondays election
dealt fatal blows to the mythology surrounding the ex-President, who since
his ouster has loomed over Sri Lankan politics like a dark and threatening
shadow over a long and slow democratic reforms process.
Two central myths of the Rajapaksa campaign broke down on Election Day.
The first was that the former President was still hugely popular, significantly
more so than Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The pair faced off
directly in this parliamentary contest for the first time in a decade, after
they fought for the presidency in November 2005.
In Sri Lankan politics, Wickremesinghe is the anti-Mahinda, often criticised
for being a cold and aloof politician, out of touch with the common people.
Mahinda Rajapaksa cuddles babies and greets supporters like long lost
friends, always supremely comfortable in his own skin. Wickremesinghe is

socially awkward and uncomfortable in the spotlight; his political speeches

have a rehearsed quality and he rarely connects with supporters even at
events where party spirit is running high. The personality cult politics of the
past decade particular to and entrenched by Mahinda Rajapaksa, appeared
to place Wickremesinghe at a perennial disadvantage. But for the second
time this year, the Sri Lankan voter chose the less charismatic, less
flamboyant politician in the race. Voters chose steadfastness over chestthumping emotion and machismo.
Ranil Wickremesinghe, mocked for years about his
partys string of defeats over 20 years polled a recordbreaking 500,556 votes in last Mondays election to
enter Parliament and clinch the title of Prime Minister.
And while Mahinda Rajapaksa polled a greater
percentage of votes polled by his party in the
Kurunegala District, there was a clear winner in the
preferential race - the secondary contest in a
parliamentary election that tests the popularity of
individual candidates. Rajapaksa picked the
Kurunegala District with is 1.3 million electors, to
bolster his premier stakes. His home base of
Hambantota with only 462,000 registered voters
would have rendered the ex President irrelevant in the
competition for preferential votes, with
Wickremesinghe contesting in Colombo, with its 1.5
million electors. In last weeks election the incumbent
Prime Minister shattered Chandrika Kumaratungas
1994 record of 464,588 preference votes polled in the
more populous Gampaha District.
Myth 2
The second myth was that Rajapaksa could never be defeated in an
election fought predominantly in the islands south, where 75% of electors
are majority Sinhalese. Mahinda Rajapaksa claimed he had been defeated
in January by Eelam votes, referring to President Sirisenas strong showing
in the Northern and Eastern districts of the country that gave him an
unassailable lead over his incumbent rival. This is a storyline the Rajapaksa
camp has stuck to, and quite possibly believed throughout their general
election campaign these past six weeks. With his 5.8 million votes already
in the bag, nearly all drawn from districts south of Vavuniya, how could the
UPFA, led by strongman Rajapaksa possibly lose? Without the guarantee of
a bulk Tamil vote in the North and East, how could the UNP win?
But last Monday, in an election battle between the two main parties that

largely excluded the North and the East, the UNP prevailed. This time
without Eelam votes.
The Rajapaksa campaign deluded itself ahead of the January election about
the ex-Presidents continued popularity across the island, despite electoral
trends from 2012-2014 showing a drastic drop in support for his coalition.
The mathematics foretold Mahinda Rajapaksas presidential election defeat
long before he consulted his astrologers and declared elections two years
ahead of schedule. With his vote share among the Sinhalese majority
decreasing rapidly since 2010, without the support of the minority
communities that his Government had repeatedly alienated and
persecuted, Rajapaksa could not win the presidency for a third time. The
only real question in the January election was to what extent the ex-regime
would use dirty tricks to swing the result its way.
Ahead of the 17 August election, similar illogic prevailed. Electoral trends
and forecasts failed to show a major wave of support for the ousted exPresident. If anything, his re-entry helped the forces of the 8 January victory
of Maithripala Sirisena and his UNP-led coalition to regroup.
Rajapaksa theologians predicted a seat haul of over 100 for the UPFA,
excluding the national list. Campaign ideologues like Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka
gushed about a revolution in the villages where the Mahinda sulanga
was changing hearts and driving people to vote their hero back into office.
The 58 lakhs could not be defeated, their numbers if anything, were
swelling, as January voters tried to correct their grave mistake in August, or
so the Rajapaksa campaign would have it.
Eroded support
Reality fell far short of the illusion - again. In the seven months between 8
January and 17 August, Mahinda Rajapaksa lost 1.1 million votes, and under
his stewardship, the UPFA lost support in every electoral district in the
island, even regions long considered the former Presidents best political
hunting grounds. Even in Kurunegala, where Rajapaksa was contesting as a
candidate, the UNP bagged the districts postal votes and was defeated by
a mere 32,000 votes. In January, Mahinda Rajapaksa prevailed over his rival
Sirisena in the Kurunegala District with an 80,000 vote lead.
But while the former President may have suffered another humiliating
electoral defeat so soon after he lost the presidency, there were big winners
in the Rajapaksa camp who owe their success directly to Mahinda
Rajapaksas decision to contest the parliamentary poll.
As dawn broke on 18 August, Pivithuru Hela Urumaya Leader
Udaya Gammanpila conceded the UPFAs defeat in the election
on his verified Facebook account. The concession was followed
up with a gloating sentence about how he had managed to poll

200,000 preference votes in the Colombo District. Wimal Weerawansa,

arguably the former Presidents staunchest ally and leader of the National
Freedom Front, managed to get five members of his party into Parliament,
many of these candidates polling second highest or third highest in the
preference vote list in several districts. Weerawansas election campaign
was one of the best funded in the UPFA race, by virtue of his being Mahinda
Rajapaksas most trusted lieutenant.
Weerawansa and Gammanpila polled first and
second in the UPFA preferential tally in the Colombo
District, showing up senior SLFP members on the list.
Both candidates were the strongest backers of the
Rajapaksa candidacy and those parties that may
have been thrust into political oblivion if
piggybacking on the Rajapaksa brand had not been
an option.
According to some analysts, while the Rajapaksa
reentry may have galvanised the forces that moved
against him in January, propelling the UNP-led
coalition to victory last Monday, the ex-President
may also have played a role in ensuring the
SLFP/UPFA did not suffer a crushing defeat in the
poll.
The 17 August result makes clear that support for
President Sirisena lies still within the UNP base, with
the party reclaiming victory in many of the
electorates Sirisena had also won in January. The SLFP, still smarting from
his betrayal last November, may still be unwilling or unable to see Sirisena
as the partys true leader. While President Sirisenas leadership of the
UPFA/SLFP campaign in the election could have attracted a share of the
minority votes to the party, it remains wholly uncertain if he could have got
his party to 95 seats, despite being the chief custodian of the January
mandate for good governance.
Post-election, the Rajapaksa coterie within the UPFA has howled about
President Sirisenas tactics of sabotage two days before the election.
Weerawansa and Gammanpila still believe the President snatched certain
victory away from the UPFA by sacking two party secretaries, writing fivepage missives to his predecessor flatly refusing to appoint him premier and
kicking the UPFA campaign offices out of the SLFP headquarters at Darley
Road. If this perception prevails for Rajapaksa himself, the SLFP looks set
for a long and acrimonious power-struggle between Presidents past and
present, as each tries to wrest back control and consolidate support within
the party.

SLFP power struggles

Dr. Uyangoda believes the prospect of reconciliation between Sirisena and
Rajapaksa are now more remote than ever. President Sirisena, the political
scientist explains, has shown himself to be a shrewd and calculating
politician with a good sense of tactics and timing, prepared to give no
quarter as far as his predecessor is concerned.
President Sirisenas last bombshells ahead of the election, Prof. Uyangoda
claims profoundly angered the rank and file SLFP and pushed them more
firmly into Rajapaksas corner. Party men felt a deep sense of
abandonment by the SLFP chairman, even those who may have been quite
loyal to the President, he explains.
Two days ahead of the election, Rajapaksa was exuding confidence. I am
100 percent sure I will win, he told a foreign correspondent hours before
campaigning ended on 14 August. And he (Sirisena) will have to give me
the premiership. How much of this was bravado and how much was
indicative of the election forecasts his allies were providing him is
uncertain.
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was equally confident ahead of the
polls, telling reporters on Saturday (15) that Mahinda Rajapaksas political
obituary could have been written on 8 January. Going forward, it may be to
Wickremesinghe that the former President will have to turn, relying on old
parliamentary ties to hold him steady as he strives to fend off corruption
investigations against his family.
Staying in active politics could prove to be the only way he can continue to
fight the corruption charges against himself, his family and his political
cronies. He is a fighter, says Prof. Uyangoda. And he cant afford not to
be in politics.
New role
As he sets out to serve a five-year term as Kurunegala District MP in the
Opposition ranks, Mahinda Rajapaksa must create a new role for himself.
For seven months he used proxies to fight battles on his behalf within the
Chamber, opposing the 19th Amendment and hosting slumber parties in
the Well. Now the ex-President will have the opportunity to lead his UPFA
loyalists from the front, striking out independently from sections of the SLFP
loyal to President Sirisena and cohabiting with the UNP inside a national
government.
His first opportunity will present itself in September, when the UN war
crimes report is set for release, believed to contain damning indictments
against tactics used by his regime and battlefield commanders staunchly
loyal to the Rajapaksa regime within its pages. How will MP Rajapaksa react
to the UN report and the Governments plans for Right to Information
legislation and further constitutional reform to strengthen democratic
institutions that his own administration deliberately and systematically

eroded? Will he whip up support against the UNP budget due in November?
Will he strive to forge alliances in the House, and with whom?
In a parliamentary career spanning four decades, MP Mahinda Rajapaksa
made no great impact. He is better remembered as a street-fighter
politician, famous for his role in the anti-UNP movement of the 1980s-90s.
In an odd way, the clock appears to have been reset on the former
Presidents political career. He will reclaim an old role as an opponent of an
incumbent regime led by the UNP, standing counter to the partys Western,
liberal outlook and urban, educated appeal.
If he chooses to serve out his term, fighter instincts may again be his
lasting legacy in this latest stint in the legislature. Sri Lanka may not have
seen the last of Mahinda Rajapaksa yet, but compared with his iron rule
spanning a decade, this time may be much less extraordinary.
Posted by Thavam