Ambuja Cement 3QC15 Result Review 29-10-15
Ambuja Cement 3QC15 Result Review 29-10-15
Ambuja Cement 3QC15 Result Review 29-10-15
Equity
Research
Market data
Mkt capitalisation
Average daily vol
52-week H/L
Shares O/S
Free float
Promotor holding
Foreign holding
Face value
HOLD
Rs
Rs
%
209
218
4
Unchanged
Rs bn
'000
Rs
mn
mn
%
%
Rs
324.0
4632.1
287 / 196.25
1551.9
771.6
50.3
27.1
2.0
1m
4.8
2.8
(2.0)
3m
(2.0)
(9.3)
(7.3)
Performance
300
(Rs)
6m
(1.4)
(9.5)
(8.1)
(%)
1yr
1.8
(7.2)
(9.0)
20
275
10
250
225
(10)
200
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Milind Raginwar
+91 22 4227 3362
milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com
Ashutosh Adsare
+91 22 4227 3496
ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com
(20)
Oct-15
C13
90,938
(6.1)
18.2
10,290
6.7
(34.7)
31.3
17.0
1.5
11.3
15.9
C14
99,187
9.1
19.4
12,449
8.1
21.0
25.9
14.4
2.1
12.7
17.0
C15e
99,680
0.5
16.2
9,134
5.9
(26.6)
35.4
17.5
1.7
8.9
12.0
C16e
111,156
11.5
19.2
13,147
8.5
43.9
24.6
13.1
1.7
12.3
16.1
C17e
124,993
12.4
20.5
16,120
10.4
22.6
20.1
11.3
1.7
14.0
18.3
Quarterly Financials
Y/E Dec (Rs mn)
3QC15
Net sales
25,105
21,109
22,021
Cost of goods
1,090
1,487
1,782
1,595
1,515
1,424
1,501
1,520
(15.9)
21,609
4,862
5,098
5,843
4,745
10,273
10,077
12,408
10,518
3,369
3,934
16.0
17.9
14.2
15.0
1,553
1,302
1,485
1,479
EBIT
1,817
2,633
8.6
12.0
8.3
8.1
Other Expenses
(4.1)
EBITDA
EBITDAM (%)
EBITM (%)
(14.4)
3,570
(31.0)
(5.6)
2,085
(2.3)
3,232
(12.9)
4.3
1,753
3.7
Other income
473
885
1,057
850
Interest expenses
207
179
316
333
2,082
3,339
547
949
831
545
26
28
29
24
1,536
2,391
(35.8)
1,995
(23.0)
1,725
(11.0)
1,536
2,391
(35.8)
1,995
(23.0)
1,725
(11.0)
Extraordinary/Exceptional
Profit before tax
Tax expense
Effective tax rate (%)
PAT
(37.6)
2,826
(26.3)
2,270
(8.3)
Minority Interest
Reported net profit
Non-recurring items
(268)
1,804
2,391
NPM (%)
8.5
10.9
EPS (Rs)
1.2
1.6
(24.5)
1,995
(9.6)
1,725
7.9
(24.5)
4.6
8.0
1.3
(9.6)
1.1
4.6
20.7
(%)
16.0
15.3
17.9
14.9
22.2
21.6
13.9
22.0
13.3
19.5
21.7
29.3
28.6
26.4
16
656
615
868
611
789
982
953
546
523
915
794
908
EBITDA/t (LHS)
3QC15
2QC15
1QC15
4QC14
3QC14
2QC14
1QC14
4QC13
3QC13
2QC13
1QC13
1QC12
0
4QC12
1,181
3.0
24
3QC12
350
1,205
4.0
Volume (RHS)
32
700
1,283
(Rs/t)
(MT)
6.0
1,050
3QC15
2QC15
1QC15
4QC14
3QC14
2QC14
1QC14
4QC13
3QC13
2QC13
1QC13
4QC12
3QC12
6.0
4,276
4,187
4,465
4,376
4,554
4,631
4,356
4,142
4,103
4,360
4,270
4,292
4,534
4,261
4,557
2QC12
3,600
1QC12
1,400
5.0
3,900
Realization/t (LHS)
4.9
5.4
5.4
4.8
4,200
5.3
5.4
4.9
4.8
5.4
6.0
5.6
4,500
(Rs/t)
6.1
5.8
6.2
4,800
2QC12
Margin (RHS)
milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com I ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com
C16e
C17e
1,880
1,880
1,880
10
10
10
187.95
187.95
187.95
1,380
1,380
1,380
259,371
259,371
259,371
Net Debt
(13,494)
(8,947)
(13,812)
EV
245,877
250,424
245,559
30.239
32.689
32.689
CMP (Rs)
Total Capacity
EV/tonne (US $)
135.5
127.7
125.2
EV/tonne (Rs)
Source: SSLe
8,131
7,661
7,512
(Rs)
300
200
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
100
Price
$100
$140
$180
$220
$260
milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com I ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com
Financials
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
C14
99,187
9.1
(80,525)
19,337
16.0
(5,095)
17,721
3,479
(645)
C15e
99,680
0.5
(84,270)
16,322
(15.6)
(6,041)
13,059
2,778
(988)
C16e
C17e
111,156 124,993
11.5
12.4
(90,542) (100,176)
21,580
25,846
32.2
19.8
(6,139)
(6,352)
18,247
22,259
2,806
2,765
(1,010)
(1,135)
19,591
(4,627)
(23.6)
14,964
0
14,964
2,515
12,449
21.0
12,071
(2,937)
(24.3)
9,134
0
9,134
0
9,134
(26.6)
17,237
(4,091)
(23.7)
13,147
0
13,147
0
13,147
43.9
21,124
(5,004)
(23.7)
16,120
0
16,120
0
16,120
22.6
C14
C15e
C16e
C17e
19.4
17.7
12.6
12.7
17.0
22.5
16.2
13.0
9.2
8.9
12.0
14.9
19.2
16.3
11.8
12.3
16.1
18.7
20.5
17.7
12.9
14.0
18.3
19.9
C13
23,411
37,616
1,045
C14
24,581
44,197
1,057
66,902
673
0
129,647
68,501
673
0
139,009
Current liabilities
Borrowings
Other non-current liabilities
Total liabilities
28,699
448
5,643
34,791
31,802
283
5,890
37,975
3,092
91,765
94,857
0
129,647
3,100
97,935
101,035
0
139,010
C13
17,549
4,424
2,487
(7,952)
0
16,508
C14
19,591
4,383
-584
(5,417)
0
17,974
Capital expenditure
Chg in investments
Other investing activities
Investing CF
FCF
(8,174)
(1,326)
0
(9,500)
7,008
(5,982)
(3,843)
0
(9,825)
8,149
Equity raised/(repaid)
Debt raised/(repaid)
Dividend (incl. tax)
Other financing activities
Financing CF
185
(29)
(6,473)
184
(6,134)
515
(165)
(7,239)
(90)
(6,979)
675
(76)
(8,262)
0
(7,663)
675
75
(7,019)
0
(6,269)
675
75
(7,017)
0
(6,267)
874
23,411
1,170
24,581
(101)
24,481
(460)
24,021
(771)
23,250
Share capital
Reserves & surplus
Shareholders' funds
Minority interest
Total equity & liabilities
C15e
24,481
35,881
443
C16e
24,021
41,639
443
C17e
23,250
38,968
443
77,659
81,040
96,099
748
823
898
0
0
0
139,210 147,966 159,656
29,301
207
5,930
35,439
31,191
282
5,970
37,444
33,044
357
6,010
39,411
3,100
3,100
3,100
100,672 107,422 117,146
103,772 110,522 120,245
0
0
0
139,210 147,966 159,656
1542.2
6.7
6.7
9.9
61.5
3.6
1545.9
8.1
8.1
11.4
65.4
5.0
1549.8
5.9
5.9
9.8
67.0
3.9
1549.8
8.5
8.5
12.4
71.3
3.9
1549.8
10.4
10.4
14.5
77.6
3.9
31.3
3.4
17.0
3.1
25.9
3.2
14.4
2.8
35.4
3.1
17.5
2.9
24.6
2.9
13.1
2.5
20.1
2.7
11.3
2.3
(0.4)
9
(0.4)
8
(0.4)
9
(0.4)
10
(0.3)
10
11.3
0.7
1.4
11.3
12.6
0.7
1.4
12.7
9.2
0.7
1.4
8.9
11.8
0.8
1.3
12.3
12.9
0.8
1.3
14.0
milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com I ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com
C15e
12,071
6,041
1,346
(4,736)
0
14,720
C16e
17,237
6,139
(2,690)
(2,782)
0
17,905
C17e
21,124
6,352
(3,536)
(3,959)
0
19,980
Recommendation History
BUY
(Rs)
300
HOLD
Date
SELL
Stock Price
TP
Rec.
174
179
HOLD
2-Apr-13
280
3-May-13
189
172
HOLD
260
25-Jul-13
171
171
HOLD
240
28-Oct-13
190
166
SELL
220
10-Feb-14
162
162
HOLD
22-Apr-14
215
181
SELL
25-Apr-14
209
181
SELL
25-Jul-14
218
208
HOLD
31-Oct-14
228
201
HOLD
19-Feb-15
265
218
SELL
200
180
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
140
Feb-13
160
29-Apr-15
238
221
HOLD
27-Jul-15
234
218
HOLD
29-Sep-15
203
208
HOLD
28-Oct-15
205
218
HOLD
Qualification
Designation
Milind Raginwar
Analyst
Ashutosh Adsare
Associate
milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com I ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com
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milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com I ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com