434 06

Risk Assessment Data Directory
Report No. 434 6.1

March 2010
Ignition
probabilities
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RADD Ignition probabilities
contents
1.0
Introduction ........................................................................ 1
2.0
2.1
2.2
Summary of Recommended Data ......................................... 1

Ignition Probability Curves ......................................................................... 1
Blowout Ignition Probabilities .................................................................. 16
3.0
3.1
3.2
Guidance on use of data .................................................... 17

General Validity.......................................................................................... 17
Alternative Approaches ............................................................................ 17
3.2.1
3.2.2
Releases addressed by datasheets in Section 2.0 ............................................ 17

Other releases ....................................................................................................... 20
3.3
Uncertainties .............................................................................................. 20
4.0
Review of data sources ...................................................... 20
5.0
Recommended data sources for further information ........... 22
6.0
References ......................................................................... 22
OGP
Abbreviations
FPSO
LPG
NAP
NUI
QRA
UKOOA
Floating Production Storage and Offloading (Installation)

Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Normal Atmospheric Pressure
Normally Unmanned Installation
Quantitative Risk Assessment
United Kingdom Offshore Operators Association
OGP
1.0
Introduction
The data presented in section 2 provide estimates of the probabilities of hydrocarbon

releases igniting to result in an explosion and/or a sustained fire. These data may be
applied to any on the leak types described in the Process Release Frequencies
datasheet1.
The values presented relate to total ignition probability, which can be considered as
the sum of the probabilities of immediate ignition and delayed ignition. Immediate
ignition can be considered as the situation where the fluid ignites immediately on
release through auto-ignition or because the accident which causes the release also
provided an ignition source. Delayed ignition is the result of the build-up of a
flammable vapour cloud which is ignited by a source remote from the release point. It
is assumed to result in flash fires or explosions, and also to burn back to the source
of the leak resulting in a jet fire and/or a pool fire.
These probabilities are considered appropriate for use in QRA studies where a
relatively coarse assessment is acceptable. Section 3.2 refers to a more detailed
approach for QRAs where this is considered to be required.
2.0
Summary of Recommended Data
2.1
Ignition Probability Curves
Data presented in this section come in the form of 28 mathematical functions drawn
from the UKOOA look-up correlations (see section 4.0) which relate ignition
probabilities in air2 to release rates for typical scenarios both onshore and offshore.
The
various
scenarios
are
summarised
in
Table
2.1,
With the exception of zero pressure releases, where the limited inventory and hence cloud
size would result in a lower ignition probability than would be predicted using this approach.
2
Ignition probabilities in other atmospheres, e.g. oxygen enriched or chlorine, are outside the
scope of this datasheet.
OGP
Table 2.2 and Table 2.3. The functions themselves are given in both tabular and
graphical form in the data sheets which follow.
The curves of ignition probability vs. release rate comprise between two and four
sections, each a straight line when plotted on log-log axes.
These curves represent total ignition probability. The method assumes that the
immediate ignition probability is 0.001 and is independent of the release rate. As a
result, all the curves start at a value of 0.001 relating to a release rate of 0.1 kg/s.
Users of the data may wish to adopt this value and to obtain delayed ignition
probabilities by subtracting 0.001 from the total ignition probability, e.g. an ignition
probability value of 0.004 obtained from the look-up correlations can be considered as
an immediate ignition probability of 0.001 and a delayed ignition probability of 0.003.
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Table 2.1 Onshore Ignition Scenarios

Scenario
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Look-up Release Type
Application
Pipe Liquid Industrial

(Liquid Releases from onshore
pipeline in industrial area)
Pipe Liquid Rural
(Liquid Releases from onshore
pipeline in industrial area)
Pipe Gas LPG Industrial
(Gas or LPG release from
onshore pipeline in an
industrial area)
Pipe Gas LPG Rural
(Gas or LPG release from
onshore pipeline in a rural area)
Small Plant Gas LPG
(Gas or LPG release from small
onshore plant)
Small Plant Liquid
(Liquid release from small
onshore plant)
Small Plant Liquid Bund Rural
(Liquid release from small
onshore plant where the spill is
bunded)
Large Plant Gas LPG
(Gas or LPG release from large
onshore plant)
Large Plant Liquid
(Liquid release from large
onshore plant)
Large Plant Liquid Bund Rural
(Liquid Released from large
onshore plant where spill is
bunded)
Releases of flammable liquids that do not have any significant flash fraction (10% or less) if
released from onshore cross-country pipelines running through industrial or urban areas.
released from onshore cross-country pipelines running through rural areas.
Releases of flammable gases, vapour or liquids significantly above their normal (Normal
Atmospheric Pressure (NAP)) boiling point from onshore cross-country pipelines running
through industrial or urban areas.
Releases of flammable gases, vapour or liquids significantly above their normal (NAP) boiling
point from onshore cross-country pipelines running through rural areas.
point from small onshore plants (plant area up to 1200 m2, site area up to 35,000 m2).
released from small onshore plants (plant area up to 1200 m2, site area up to 35,000 m2) and
which are not bunded or otherwise contained.
released from small onshore plants (plant area up to 1200 m2, site area up to 35,000 m2) and
where the liquid releases from the plant area are suitably bunded or otherwise contained.
point from large onshore outdoor plants (plant area above 1200 m2, site area above 35,000
m2).
released from large onshore outdoor plants (plant area above 1200 m2, site area above 35,000
m2) and which are not bunded or otherwise contained.
released from large onshore outdoor plants (plant area above 1200 m2, site area above 35,000
m2) and where the liquid releases from the plant area are suitably bunded or otherwise
contained.
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Scenario
No.
11
12
Application
Large Plant Congested Gas

LPG
(Gas or LPG released from a
large confined or congested
onshore plant)
Tank Liquid 300m x 300m Bund
(Liquid release from a large
confined or congested onshore
plant)
point from large onshore plants (plant area above 1200 m2, site area above 35,000 m2), where
the plant is partially walled/roofed or within a shelter or very congested.
13
Tank Liquid 100m x 100m Bund

(Liquid release from onshore
tank farm where spill is limited
by small or medium sized bund)
14
Tank Gas LPG Plant

(gas or LPG release from
onshore tank farm within the
plant)
15
Tank Gas LPG Storage

Industrial
(Gas or LPG released from
onshore tank farm sited
adjacent to a plant or away from
the plant in an industrial area)
Tank Gas LPG Storage Only
Rural
(Gas or LPG released from
onshore tank farm sited
adjacent to a plant or away from
the plant in an industrial area)
16
Releases flammable liquids that do not have any significant flash fraction (10% or less) if
released from very large onshore outdoor storage area 'tank farm' (e.g. spill in a large multitank bund over 25,000 m2 area).
See curve No. 30 Tank Liquid diesel, fuel oil if liquids are stored at ambient conditions
below their flash point.
released from onshore outdoor storage area 'tank farm' (e.g. spill in a large tank bund
containing four or fewer tanks, or any other bund less than 25,000 m2 area).
See curve No. 30 Tank Liquid diesel, fuel oil if liquids are stored at ambient conditions
below their flash point.
point from onshore outdoor storage tanks located in a 'tank farm' entirely surrounded by
plants. For tank farms adjacent to plants use curve No. 15 Tank Gas LPG Storage Industrial
or Curve No. 16 Tank Gas LPG Storage Only Rural look-up correlations. Releases from
process vessels or tanks inside plant areas should be treated as plant releases.
point from onshore outdoor storage tanks located in a 'tank farm' adjacent to plants or
situated away from plants in an industrial or urban area.
point from onshore outdoor storage tanks located in a 'tank farm' adjacent to plants or
situated away from plants in a rural area.
Source: Energy Institute [1]
OGP
Table 2.2 Offshore Ignition Scenarios

Scenario
No.
17
18
19
20

Offshore Process Liquid
(Liquid release from offshore
process module)
Offshore Process Liquid NUI
(Liquid release from offshore
process area on NUI)
Offshore Process Gas Open
Deck NUI
(Gas release from offshore
process open deck area on NUI)
Offshore Process Gas Typical
(Gas release from typical
offshore process module)
21
Offshore Process Gas Large

Module
(gas release from typical
offshore process module)
22
Offshore Process Gas

Congested or Mechanical
Vented Module
(Gas released from a
mechanically ventilated or very
congested offshore process
module)
Offshore Riser
(Gas release from typical
offshore riser in air gap)
23
Application
released from within offshore process modules.
released from within offshore process modules or decks on NUIs.
point from an offshore process weather deck/ open deck on NUIs. Can also be used for
open/uncongested weather decks with limited process equipment on larger attended
integrated platforms.
point from within offshore process modules or decks on integrated deck / conventional
installations). Process modules include separation, compression, pumps, condensate
handling, power generation, etc. If the module is mechanically ventilated or very congested
see curve No. 22 Offshore Process Gas Congested or Mechanical Vented Module.
point from within large offshore process modules or decks on integrated deck / conventional
installations (module greater than 1000 m2 floor area). Process modules include separation,
compression, pumps, condensate handling, power generation, etc. If the module is
mechanically ventilated or very congested see curve No. 22 'Offshore Process Gas
Congested or Mechanical Vented Module'.
point from within offshore process modules or decks on integrated deck / conventional
installations: applies where the module is enclosed and has a mechanical ventilation system
or is very congested (volume blockage ratio => 0.14 and less than 25% of area of the end
walls open for natural ventilation)
Releases from offshore installation risers in the air gap area where there is little chance of the
release entering process areas on the installation (e.g. solid decks, wind walls). Applies to
partial flashing oil or gas releases.
May also be used for blowouts with well positioned diverters directing any release away from
the installation (see also curve No. 27 Offshore Engulf blowout riser).
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Scenario
No.
24
25
26
27

Offshore FPSO Gas
FPSO process module)
Offshore FPSO Gas Wall
FPSO process module behind a
transverse solid wall)
Offshore FPSO Liquid
(Liquid release from typical
offshore FPSO process
module)
Offshore Engulf blowout
riser
(Major release which can engulf
an entire offshore installation)
Application
point from within offshore process modules or decks on FPSOs. See curve No. 25 offshore
FPSO Gas Wall if the release is from an area downwind of a transverse wall across the FPSO
deck.
point from within offshore process modules or decks on FPSOs. This correlation applies if
the release is from an area downwind of a transverse wall across the FPSO deck.
released from within offshore process modules or decks on FPSOs
Releases from drilling or well working blowouts or riser failures under open grated deck
areas where the release could engulf the entire installation and reach into platform areas:
applies to partial flashing oil or gas releases. (see also curve No. 23 Offshore Riser for riser
releases and blowouts with divertors)
Note. Curve Nos. 28 and 29 related to Cox, Lees and Ang formulation which were included in the document for comparison
Table 2.3 Special (Derived) Ignition Scenarios

Scenario
No.
30
Application
Tank Liquid diesel fuel oil

(Liquid Release from onshore
tank farm of liquids below their
flash point, e.g. diesel or fuel
oil)
Releases of combustible liquids stored at ambient pressure and at temperatures below their
flash point (e.g. most gas, oil, diesel and fuel oil storage tanks) from onshore outdoor storage
area tank farm. This look-up correlation can be applied to releases from tanks and low
pressure transfer lines or pumps in the tank farm/ storage area. However, it should not be
used for high-pressure systems (over a few barg): in these situations use curve No. 12 Tank
Liquid 300m x 300m Bund or curve No. 13 Tank Liquid 100 x 100m Bund
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Data Sheet 1: Scenarios 1 4
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Data Sheet 4: Scenarios 12, 13 & 30
10
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11
3.0
Guidance on use of data
3.1
General Validity
The correlations are considered to provide an acceptable approach for use in typical
QRA studies. For more detailed analysis it is recommended that the full spreadsheet
UKOOA ignition model is used so that the specific circumstances with regard to
layout and ignition sources can be more accurately represented.
The correlations were developed for UKOOA member companies with the intention of
providing representative probabilities for installations operating in UK waters. They
may be applied to the analysis of hydrocarbon releases in other regions which comply
with recognised industry good practice, as it is applied in the UKCS.
The forward to the Energy Institute report states that the model and look-up
correlations are not suited to the ignition probability assessment of refrigerated
liquefied gases, vapourising liquid pools, sub-sonic gas releases, or non-momentum
driven releases, such as those following catastrophic storage vessel failure.
Despite this note, flashing liquid releases are covered by a number of the correlations
and analysts may further modify them by combining them with a gas or LPG ignition
probability in suitable proportions as suggested in note 4 of section 2.1. Atmospheric
storage tanks are dealt with in the Storage Incident Frequencies data sheet. Low
momentum and sub-sonic gas releases are uncommon in process systems. An
approach to the scenarios for which the correlations are not valid is suggested in
Section 3.2.2.
3.2
Alternative Approaches
3.2.1
Releases addressed by datasheets in Section 2.0
The initial task for the analyst is to determine which of the scenarios given in Table 2.1
to
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17
Table 2.2 and Table 2.3 best matches the scenario under consideration. There may be
situations where the scenario under consideration lies between two of the described
scenarios, in which case the analysts may attempt to interpolate between two curves.
The data presented in the tables in Section 2.0 can be used in three ways:
1. Estimate from the graphs
2. Obtain probability based on the tabulated values
3. Use values in Table 3.1 to calculate the probability. Note that, in interpolating
between the data points, it is necessary to take logarithms of the release rate and
probabilities, interpolate between these to find the logarithm of the required
probability and then obtain the value itself, i.e.:
where Pign
is the required ignition probability corresponding to release rate Q

is the ignition probability at a release rate of Qlower (the lower bound of
the relevant curve section), and
is the ignition probability at a release rate of Qupper (the upper bound of
the relevant curve section)
The third of these options is the recommended approach and the analyst may find it
convenient to construct a spreadsheet or some other computer programme to carry
this out.
The data used to generate the lines on the graphs in the datasheets (Section 2.1) are
shown in Table 3.1. This has been derived from Table 2.9 in the Institute of Energy
report 1, which provides further explanation on the derivation of the lines. This
specifies the release rates and ignition probabilities relating to each of the points
bounding the segments as indicated in Figure 3.1. Some information on the timing of
ignitions is also available in 1.
Figure 3.1 Typical Ignition Probability Curve
18
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A more accurate assessment may be obtained by the use of the full UKOOA ignition
model which is described in 1. This has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool
which is made available on a CD which accompanies the report. This allows the user
to input specific data relating to release conditions, platform layout and ignition
sources. However, this requires more effort on the part of the analyst and the
availability of more installation specific data compared with the relative ease with
which the look-up functions can be used.
OGP
19

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Risk Assessment Data Directory

Report No. 434 6.1

Consistent high quality database and guidelines

Internationally recognised source of industry information

RADD Ignition probabilities

Summary of Recommended Data ......................................... 1

Guidance on use of data .................................................... 17

Releases addressed by datasheets in Section 2.0 ............................................ 17

Review of data sources ...................................................... 20

Recommended data sources for further information ........... 22

RADD Ignition probabilities

Floating Production Storage and Offloading (Installation)

RADD Ignition probabilities

The data presented in section 2 provide estimates of the probabilities of hydrocarbon

Summary of Recommended Data

Ignition Probability Curves

RADD Ignition probabilities

RADD Ignition probabilities

Table 2.1 Onshore Ignition Scenarios

Look-up Release Type

Pipe Liquid Industrial

RADD Ignition probabilities

Look-up Release Type

Large Plant Congested Gas

Tank Liquid 100m x 100m Bund

Tank Gas LPG Plant

Tank Gas LPG Storage

Source: Energy Institute [1]

RADD Ignition probabilities

Table 2.2 Offshore Ignition Scenarios

Look-up Release Type

Offshore Process Gas Large

Offshore Process Gas

RADD Ignition probabilities

Look-up Release Type

Source: Energy Institute [1]

Table 2.3 Special (Derived) Ignition Scenarios

Look-up Release Type

Tank Liquid diesel fuel oil

Source: Energy Institute [1]

RADD Ignition probabilities

Data Sheet 1: Scenarios 1 4

RADD Ignition probabilities

Data Sheet 2: Scenarios 5 7

RADD Ignition probabilities

Data Sheet 3: Scenarios 8 11

RADD Ignition probabilities

Data Sheet 4: Scenarios 12, 13 & 30

RADD Ignition probabilities

Data Sheet 5: Scenarios 14 16

RADD Ignition probabilities

Guidance on use of data

Releases addressed by datasheets in Section 2.0

RADD Ignition probabilities

is the required ignition probability corresponding to release rate Q

RADD Ignition probabilities

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