De Beers Report
De Beers Report
De Beers Report
C O N T E N TS
FOREWORD
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
13
20
24
32
38
42
46
03 | IN FOCUS
GLOSSARY
52
66
74
81
FOR E WO R D
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by the De Beers Group (De Beers) and
comprises the written materials concerning De Beers and the wider
diamond industry. All references to De Beers in this report refer to the
De Beers Group, unless otherwise stated.
This report has been compiled by De Beers and/or its affiliates from sources
believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied,
is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and
estimates contained in this report are judgements as of the date of this
report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith
but without legal responsibility.
This report should not be construed as business advice and the insights are
not to be used as the basis for investment or business decisions of any kind
without your own research and validation.
This report is for information purposes only. The information contained in
this report may be based on internal data, or data sourced from, or provided
by, third parties or publicly available sources. As such, it may include the
disclosures and/or views of those third parties, which may not necessarily
correspond to the views held by De Beers.
De Beers does not offer any representation or warranty as to the accuracy
or completeness of this report and no reliance should be placed on the
information disclosed for any purpose. Nothing in this report should be
interpreted to mean that De Beers or the diamond industry (as the case may
be) will necessarily perform in accordance with the analysis or data contained
in this report. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable
to De Beers or persons acting on its behalf are qualified in their entirety by
these cautionary statements.
To the full extent permitted by law, neither De Beers nor any of its affiliates,
nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or
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contained herein.
Forward-looking statements
This report includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than
statements of historical facts included in this report, including, without
limitation, those regarding De Beers future expectations and/or future
expectations in respect of the diamond industry, are forward-looking
statements. By their nature, such forward-looking statements involve known
and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the
actual results, performance or achievements of diamond markets, or industry
results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or
achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions
made by De Beers in respect of the present and future business strategies
and the wider environment of the diamond industry. Important factors that
could cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially
from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others,
levels of actual production during any period, levels of global demand and
commodity market prices, mineral resource exploration and development
capabilities, recovery rates and other operational capabilities, the availability
of mining and processing equipment, the ability to produce and transport
products profitably, the impact of foreign currency exchange rates on
market prices and operating costs, the availability of sufficient credit, the
effects of inflation, political uncertainty and economic conditions in relevant
areas of the world, the actions of competitors, activities by governmental
authorities such as changes in taxation or safety, health, environmental or
other types of regulation in the countries relevant to the diamond industry,
conflicts over land and resource ownership rights and other such risk factors.
Forward-looking statements should, therefore, be construed in light of such
risk factors and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking
statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of
this report. De Beers expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to
release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement
contained herein to reflect any change in De Beers expectations with regard
thereto or any change in the events, conditions or circumstances on which
any such statement is based.
TH E
JOU R N E Y
OF A
DIAM O ND
DOW N STRE A M
G LO BA L
C O NS U ME R
D E MA ND
D I A MO ND
JE W E L L E RY
R E TA I L
U PSTRE A M
M I DSTREAM
ROUGH
D I A MO ND
P R O D U CT I O N
CUTTIN G,
POLISHING A N D
JEWEL LE RY
M ANUFACTU R I N G
D I A MO ND
E X P LO R AT I O N
R O U GH DI AMO ND
SA LES AND
DI ST R I B U T I O N
EXECU T I V E
SUMM ARY
SECTION 3: IN FOCUS
Changing consumer preferences and the growth of
brands looks in detail at how the consumer landscape
is changing in the US and China. Notwithstanding the
markets vertiginous growth over the last five years,
China still offers a tremendous growth opportunity
for the industry. Penetration of diamond jewellery is
still relatively low and consumers desire for diamonds
is high. The situation in the US, a more mature
market for diamonds, is different. Fine jewellery has
grown more slowly than other luxury categories in
recent years. However, there are promising growth
areas in the US too, not least in bridal jewellery and
branded diamonds and diamond jewellery, which
have performed particularly well in recent years.
10
1.
6.
2.
7.
8.
9.
10.
3.
4.
5.
11
12
01
DIAM O ND I N D U ST RY
OUT LO O K
In contrast with precious metals and other natural resources industries,
which rely on multiple sources of demand, the diamond industry
derives practically all its value from consumers demand for diamond
jewellery. The outlook for the industry is thus intrinsically linked to the
strength of consumer desire for diamonds.
Positive demand growth for diamonds will almost
certainly outstrip growth in carat production in the
next 10 years, given the lack of major new discoveries
in the last decade and the projected production
slowdown in several existing mines. Even under
scenarios of volatile or weaker global economic
growth, demand for diamonds is expected to show
positive real growth in the next decade. Across the
value chain, companies that are able to innovate
and differentiate themselves will be best positioned
to capture the opportunities created by this supply
demand dynamic.
A positive supply demand outlook is shared by a
number of external experts. For example, in its
recent publication on the global diamond industry,
McKinsey & Company sets out four potential future
scenarios for the diamond industry2 (see Fig. 1).
In every scenario, demand growth outstrips
production growth. De Beers has undertaken some
modelling of potential rough diamond supply and
demand based on McKinseys Diamonds are Forever
scenario, and the relative supply and demand curves
are shown inFig. 2. Other industry analysts have
expressed similarly positive views (see Fig. 3).
13
1 DIAMONDS
ARE FOREVER average growth in emerging markets, especially China and India. Brands become more important and
increasingly invest in promoting the allure of diamonds. Even with demand in Europe and Japan
softening, the dynamics of supply and demand in this scenario mean that previously uneconomical
mining projects become economically viable, so production is maximised.
2 DEMAND
Diamond demand grows more slowly as key consumer markets such as the US, China and India
experience weak growth. Companies lose the incentive to invest heavily in brands, and diamonds lose
some appeal through a lack of investment in promoting the diamond category and consumers moving
away from conspicuous consumption. Production remains stagnant but recycling of diamond jewellery
increases as consumers encounter financial distress.
3 FEAST AND
The diamond industry develops in a volatile manner, driven by high levels of global macro-economic
uncertainty. Strong rises in demand are followed by sharp decreases, leading to scattered supply
expansion. Lead-time between the demand and supply cycles implies a wide variation in prices.
Mining companies strive to diversify their mining assets to manage volatility and adapt to the growing
resource nationalism trend. Consumers increasingly move away from diamonds, and brands slow down
their investments.
4 EAST RENEWS
The industry enjoys strong growth driven by emerging markets, especially China and India. However,
US growth is only moderate. The consumer base for diamonds widens as the emerging middle class
grows and consumers show a distinct preference for brands. Diamond producers will continue to invest
in developing new supply projects.
SHOCK
FAMINE
GLOBAL
GROWTH
Source: McKinsey & Company, Perspectives on the Diamond Industry, September 2014
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
Source: De Beers analysis, McKinsey & Company, Perspectives on the Diamond Industry, September 2014
14
2022F
2023F
2024F
2025F
DIAMOND SUPPLY
Source: Goldman Sachs, Get engaged with Russian diamonds: Initiating as Buy, 9 December 2013
RBC, Diamond Digest, 4 March 2014
15
USD billion
NOMINAL
DE BEERS
ROUGH SALES
PWP
25
20
6
15
10
3
5
Source: De Beers
16
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
0
1980
17
18
02
TH E DI AM O N D I N D U ST RY
VALU E CHA I N
This section of the report examines each stage of the diamond value
chain in turn, providing a snapshot of how the industry has performed
recently and one perspective on what the future may hold.
19
GLO BAL CO N S U M E R
DEM AND
2013 SNAPSHOT
Global diamond jewellery sales were an estimated
US$79 billion in 2013, growing at over three per
cent in nominal value in 2013 in USD terms vs 2012,
ahead of the compounded annual rate of growth
experienced between 2008 and 2012 (see Fig. 5).
China continues to be the main growth engine
of diamond jewellery demand, but the US also
performed particularly well in 2013.
In terms of polished diamonds contained in diamond
jewellery at cutting centre wholesale value (so called
PWP or polished wholesale price), demand
increased by over three per cent from 2012 to 2013,
to reach approximately US$25 billion (see Fig. 6).
The two biggest markets, the US and China, both
grew by more than the global average, with sales of
polished diamonds increasing seven per cent in the
US and 14 per cent in China, measured in USD terms.
In contrast, both India and Japan saw sales fall (by six
per cent in Japan and 10 per cent in India, measured
in USD terms).
20
2012-2013 GROWTH
2008-2013 CAGR
3.4%
3%
80
LOCAL
CURRENCY
USD
60
40
20
Rest of World
1%
India
6%
12%
China
18%
12%
Gulf
4%
4%
Japan
2%
-2%
US
1%
0
2008
Note:
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Gulf includes Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain
Source: De Beers
30
2012-2013 GROWTH
2008-2013 CAGR
USD
3.4%
5%
25
Rest of World
2%
India
6%
China
20%
Gulf
3%
Japan
2%
US
4%
20
15
10
0
2008
Note:
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Gulf includes Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain
Source: De Beers
21
LOOKING AHEAD
A detailed view of future consumer trends for the
diamond industrys most important markets, the US
and China, is provided in the In Focus section of this
report: see Changing consumer preferences and the
growth of brands in the United States and China.
Medium
Small
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
US
Note:
India
Japan
Gulf
Source: De Beers
22
China
US
China
India
Japan
Gulf
US
India
China
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan
US
INDIA
CHINA
Feb
Mar
Engagements
Valentines
Day
Apr
May
Mothers
Day
Jun
Jul
Aug
Oct
Nov
Thanksgiving
Wedding season
Dec
Engagements
Christmas
New Year
Diwali/Wedding
season
Wedding season
Chinese
New Year
Sep
Golden
Week
Chinese
Valentines
Day
Golden
Week
Source: De Beers
23
DIAM O ND J E W E LLE RY
RETAI L
2013 SNAPSHOT
Diamond jewellery retail is a highly fragmented
sector with over 200,000 retail doors selling diamond
jewellery worldwide.
The past few years saw a marked contrast between
developed and emerging markets in the performance
of diamond jewellery retailers. In developed markets,
retailers have faced pressures from a weak economic
environment and strong competition from branded
luxury goods and experiential categories, as well
as the low-price models of ecommerce companies.
On the other hand, the growing middle classes and
increasing consumer appetite for diamonds have
allowed retailers in developing markets, together with
the less prevalent ecommerce models, to enjoy higher
margins and return on invested capital, although
these too have started to come under pressure.
24
Per cent
US
Tiffany
Signet
Jewelers
19
Most recent
15
EBIT
2012
18
Most recent
21
15
15
14
14
Zale
Corporation
JC Penney
-2
6,500
6,000
5,500
-13
-11
5,000
-10
4,500
Blue
Nilei
54
40
4,000
Reeds
Whitehall
Gitanjali
Fred Meyer
Zale Corporationii
Ultrai
Friedmans
No longer trading
Helzberg
Finlay
6,275
274
317
411
485
793
3,500
3,000
JAPAN
Tasaki
Shinju
-2
Jewelry
Tsutsumi
-3
88
95
155
3,847
300
59
104
234
1,307
2,500
1,471
2,000
13
1,500
13
1,000
2,350
1,679
500
0
EUROPE
Damiani
-6
-5
-5
2006
-4
2013
i
i
Blue Niles 2013 annual report states that the company has
negative working capital
Source: Bloomberg
25
EBIT
2012
Most recent
15
14
13
12
Luk Fook
Holdings
19
22
11
12
Lao Feng
Xiang
14
15
Hengdeli
Holdings
10
11
Titan
Company
35
22
10
10
Thangamayil
Jewellery
12
Tribhovandas
Bhimji Zaveri
12
Chow Sang
Sang
INDIA
Most recent
13
13
12
26
Source: De Beers
Source: Bloomberg
2006
2011
2013
Online
34
Jewellery stores
32
Advertisingii
Magazinesiii
i
ii
iii
% OF ACQUIRERSi
38
36
19
11
22
12
27
28
LOOKING AHEAD
BRANDS MAY HELP OVERALL PERFORMANCE, ESPECIALLY IN
DEVELOPED MARKETS
One way for the retail industry to improve its
financial performance could be a greater emphasis
on branded diamonds and diamond jewellery.
Increasing consumer preference for brands is evident
in the US from the jump in claimed acquisition of
branded engagement rings, from just seven per cent
of consumers in 2002 stating that their diamond
engagement ring (DER) was branded to one-third of
consumers in 2013 claiming that this was the case.
By offering brands with a specific positioning, and a
story that goes beyond the 4Cs, retailers are able to
address consumer needs for emotional engagement,
differentiate the product from generic offerings and
reinforce the diamond dream. While scale companies
are better placed to make the level of investment
required to benefit from this growing preference, all
retailers have the potential to benefit from this trend.
Branded diamond jewellery can also be an attractive
financial proposition for retailers. Successful brands
typically command a price premium above generic
products. This is based upon factors such as polished
diamonds beauty and appearance, jewellerydesign,
OFFERING A UNIQUE
PROPOSITION
Fewer than one per cent of the worlds diamonds are eligible to become a
Forevermark diamond.
Branded diamonds with strong consumerr benefits can command a price premium
over unbranded products, translating into a margin uplift.
Forevermark provides retailers and consumers alike with the total confidence
that their Forevermark diamond is not only natural and untreated but
responsibly sourced.
Retailers can utilise the Forevermark brand in designs tailored to specific markets and
consumer tastes. I also love the fact that, while Forevermark is a brand in and of itself, we are
able to customise the offering and the marketing message to fit our merchandise and image
strategies. Coleman Clark, B.C Clark Jewelers.
INVESTING IN AWARENESS
AND DRIVING FOOTFALL AS
CONSUMERS SEEK OUT
FOREVERMARK STOCKISTS
Launched in China in 2008 and North America in 2011, Forevermark now has over
476 and 402 retail partners in the countries respectively.
The Forevermark brand continues to make gains in brand awareness in the top
diamond jewellery markets: in 2013, prompted awareness in the US reached one third
of consumers, and in China prompted awareness was 44 per cent.
Forevermark recently celebrated its one millionth inscription globally, with 45,000
diamonds inscribed in the US in 2013, a year-on-year increase of 66 per cent.
The Forevermark US Center of My Universe campaign in 2012 and 2013 was
enthusiastically received by both consumers and retailers: very pleased with overall
traffic that was brought in due to the campaign. Three times better than last years.
Forevermark retailer.
ENHANCING THE
PURCHASING EXPERIENCE
FOR CONSUMERS
Source: De Beers
29
MARTIN GOOD/SHUTTERSTOCK.COM
The brand has invested heavily in stores, securing prime locations for its flagships, (eg New Bond
Street in London and New Yorks Fifth Avenue). Additionally, the quality of materials and
architecture of these stores is rising fast: leading architect Peter Marino was engaged to work on
Chanels flagship New Bond Streett store in London, and this one store alone is estimated to have
cost 30 million to design and refurbish9. Chanel has also created pop-up stores, such as its
temporary boutiques in St Tropez10 and Courchevel11, aimed at attracting wealthy holidaymakers.
Chanel has been careful to differentiate its store formats, opening specialist boutiques exclusively
to serve customers who are shopping for fine jewellery and watches rather than fashion. This
allows Chanel to offer an experience tailored specifically to selling jewellery, with the right store
ambience, specially trained staff and accompanying security.
MARCH MARCHO/SHUTTERSTOCK.COM
Chanel is using technology and data in innovative ways to enhance the customer experience.
For instance, new stores feature a large screen on which to stream live coverage of Chanels
fashion shows. Chanel also communicates with its customers through a twice-daily newsletter,
Chanel News12.
RADUBERCAN/SHUTTERSTOCK.COM
TK KURIKAWA/SHUTTERSTOCK.COM
30
At the same time as investment in store and customer experience has grown, Chanels marketing
investment has also risen (as has that of its peers in the luxury world). Chanel more than doubled
its overall advertising spend over the last five years (up from US$67 million in 2008 to US$153
million in 2013), pulling ahead of branded jewellery specialists whose advertising spend decreased
over the same period13. This level of investment, in both advertising and the retail experience,
helps to reinforce the consumers desire for diamonds as precious and beautiful gems that are
particularly appropriate to mark significant life occasions and milestones.
FIG. 16: JEWELLERY MARKET M&A VOLUMES AND NUMBERS OVER TIME
SUM OF DEAL VALUE
USD million
# DEALS
9,000
90
85
8,000
80
75
7,000
70
65
6,000
60
55
5,000
50
45
4,000
40
35
3,000
30
25
2,000
20
15
1,000
10
5
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Dealogic
31
CUT T I N G A N D
POL I SHI NG
2013 SNAPSHOT
The cutting and polishing industry is global in nature.
It remains fragmented, with thousands of companies
operating with multiple business models, including
wholesalers, rough dealers, manufacturers and
polished dealers, as well as combinations of these
activities. The Israel Diamond Exchange, for example,
has more than 3,000 members16, many of which are
very small companies or sole proprietors. Even among
the leading companies in the sector, there are many
traditional family-owned businesses with a long history
in the diamond industry.
However, recent years have seen the midstream sector
coming under increasing pressure for a number of
reasons. These include lower carat supply, increasing
costs in the upstream, and growing pressure from
the retail sector, where consumers make higher
demands and brands take greater share (as described
in the Diamond Jewellery Retail chapter of this
report). These trends are compounded by significant
financing challenges: as polished demand increases,
the midstream needs additional funding. Declining
overall central bank interest rates17 have not resulted
in lower borrowing costs for midstream companies,
indicating that banks perceive increasing risks in the
diamond sector overall (see Fig. 17).
INTEREST RATE
8
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: De Beers estimates; ICE Benchmark Administration Limited
(IBA) for Libor rates
32
33
A DIAMOND
INDUSTRY
BANKERS VIEW
ON MIDSTREAM
ISSUES AND
SOLUTIONS
LOOKING AHEAD
PRESSURE ON THE MIDSTREAM IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO
PROFESSIONALISATION AND CONSOLIDATION
Financing challenges are increasingly critical and
could intensify over the coming years. Rising inventory
costs, and diamond banks drive to constrain the
growth of their lending to the midstream, will mean
financing costs are unlikely to decrease, particularly
if the trend of low interest rates begins to change.
Additional financial scrutiny of the midstream
sector can therefore be expected. Leading banks in
the diamond sector have come to realise that they
have been taking equity-type risks in the diamond
midstream without getting the corresponding returns.
This is now changing and, as a result, borrowing costs
are going up while banks are asking their borrowers
to professionalise their capital management.
Overall, this trend is expected to affect the way the
industry operates. New lending standards will increase
the regulatory burden on the midstream, leading to
higher costs and operational complexity. One possible
consequence is that less well-established companies
may even exit the industry, leading to some level
ofconsolidation.
34
Diamond production, by
value, as per cent of GDP
Diamond exports, by value,
as per cent of total exports
80
76
70
60
50
40
30
26
19
20
10
0
Botswana
Namibia
35
36
Canada
2008
25
APPROXIMATE TOTAL
CUTTING AND POLISHING JOBS
2013
2008
2013
0 NW
180 Ontario
300
50-80
Botswana
45->125
60-120
2,200
3,750
Namibia
45->125
5 > 25
60-140
1,500
,500
970
Belgium
120
150+
1,000
150-200
US
110
300
100
80-100
South Africa
60-100
130-150
1,800
1,000
Israel
47->55
140->300
2,000
400
Far East
15-35
20-50
29,000
10,000
India
6-50
10-50
850,000
800,000
These are estimates for the majority of production units and exclude outliers
37
ROU GH DI A M O N D SA LES
AND DI ST R I BU T I O N
2013 SNAPSHOT
Per cent
2013 ROUGH DIAMOND SALES BY VALUE SHARE
38
Othervi
11
Artisanal/
Informaliv
12
De Beersi
33
Zimbabwe/
Marange
(Chiadzwa)iv
4
Dominionv
4
ALROSAii
25
SODIAMiv
6
Rio Tintoiii
5
DESCRIPTION
TERM CONTRACT
WILLING BUYER,
WILLING SELLER
(OR PLACED
SALES)
AUCTION
TENDER
Source: De Beers
39
40
LOOKING AHEAD
SALES CHANNELS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
In rough diamond sales, there are significant benefits
to being a scale producer and supplier. The various
mines offer quite different production profiles, and
production fluctuates in the quantity, size and quality
of diamonds. This means that a companys ability to
offer a consistent supply of gems is strengthened by
operating several mines.
41
ROUGH DI A M O N D
PRO DU CT I O N
2013 SNAPSHOT
CURRENT PRODUCTION IS WELL BELOW ITS 2005 PEAK
De Beers estimates that overall global rough diamond
production increased by three per cent from 2012
to US$18 billion in 2013. Measured in carats, the
increase was seven per cent, to reach 146 million
carats. This is still well below the production peak in
2005, when overall production was above 176 million
carats25 (see Fig. 23).
The largest diamond producing country, by volume,
is Russia, which in 2013 produced 25 per cent
of total carats, and 26 per cent of overall rough
diamond value. Botswana produced 16 per cent of
carats, corresponding to 21 per cent of overall value.
Another large volume producing country is the DRC,
which has historically produced on average 19 per
cent of total volume, but equivalent to only roughly
six per cent of value due to low value per carat26
(seeFig. 24).
42
0
1882
Note:
2013
Source: De Beers
VOLUME
Million carats
Russia
Botswana
Canada
Angola
DRC
Australia
South Africa
All others
VALUE
USD million
GROWTH
Per cent
GROWTH
Per cent
+7
20,000
150
+3
140
130
120
15,000
110
100
90
80
10,000
70
60
50
40
5,000
30
20
10
0
2012
2013
2012
2013
De Beers
Zimbabwe (Chiadzwa)
ALROSA
Other Major/Junior
2008-2013 CAGR
Per cent
USD million
De Beers
Zimbabwe (Chiadzwa)
Catoca
ALROSA
Catoca
Informal/Artisanal
Other Major/Junior
Informal/Artisanal
2008-2013 CAGR
Per cent
2008-2013 CAGR
Per cent
-4
160
2008-2013 CAGR
Per cent
+17
20,000
153
146
150
140
-8
130
120
15,000
10,000
110
100
90
80
70
2
60
50
22
40
5,000
30
20
71
10
10
3
0
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
43
LOOKING AHEAD
New projects
Expansions
Existing
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Source: McKinsey & Company, Perspectives on the Diamond Industry, September 2014
44
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
OWNER(S)
Grib
ADC (1997)
Russia
Development
2014
Botuobinskaya
ALROSA
ALROSA (1994)
Russia
Development
2015
Karpinsky-1
ALROSA
ALROSA (1982)
Russia
Development
2015
Gahcho Ku
De Beers/Mountain
Province Diamonds
Permitting
2016
Renard
Stornoway, Newmont
Ashton (2001)
Canada
Permitting
2017
Star-Orion South
Uranerz (1988)
Canada
Feasibility
2017+
Bunder
Rio Tinto
India
Pre-feasibility
2017+
Ghaghoo
Gem Diamonds
Falcon Bridge
(1981)
Botswana Construction
Note:
COUNTRY
STATUS
EST. FIRST
PRODUCTION
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PRODUCTION
(MCTS)
DISCOVERER AND
YEAR OF DISCOVERY
2014
0.4
All data estimated based on best available public information as of May 2014
Source: De Beers
45
DIAM O N D
EXP LO R AT I O N
The chase is on: diamond miners continue to search the ends
of the earth for the next big find.
2013 SNAPSHOT
AROUND US$7 BILLION HAS BEEN SPENT ON EXPLORATION
SINCE 2000
Diamond mineral systems occur in very specific
cratonic target areas these are well-known.
With growing demand for diamonds and dwindling
supplies from existing mines, the search for the
next diamond mines is expected to continue.
Since 2000, the diamond mining industry has
spent almost US$7 billion on exploration30.
To date, these efforts have yielded relatively meagre
results: only one diamond deposit of significant size
(Bunder, in India) has been discovered during this
period31, in addition to other smaller deposits such
as Orapa AK6 in Botswana (now the Karowe mine),
owned by Lucara Diamond Corporation.
Today, the majority of diamond exploration spend
takes place in relatively underexplored African
countries such as Angola, the DRC and Zimbabwe,
as well as the vast swathes of Arctic Siberia and
Canada. Recently, there has been some change in
the allocation of this spending: from 2011 to 2013
the share of global exploration spending that went to
Russia increased from 27 per cent to 54 per cent, at
the expense of countries such as Canada, South Africa
and India32 (see Fig. 29).
46
549% share
None
54
14
2i
0
13
0iii
1ii
ii
iii
Note:
Source: De Beers estimates based on company publications and websites, SNL Metals & Minings Corporate
Exploration Strategies 2013; includes grassroots, late stage, and mine site exploration expenditures
Majorsi
Juniorsii
Otheriii
1,000
800
600
400
200
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
10
13
11
16
21
14
Source: SNL Metals & Mining's Corporate Exploration Strategies 2013; includes grassroots, late stage, and mine site exploration expenditures
47
48
LOOKING AHEAD
LARGE-SCALE PROFITABLE DISCOVERIES WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN ELUSIVE
The large diamond mining companies are expected
to continue to invest in exploration, but the
probability of a major profitable new diamond
discovery will remain relatively low. Thisis simply
because finding economic diamond deposits is
difficult: even spending billions of US dollars
in exploration carries no guarantee of actually
discovering economically viable deposits.
Over the last 140 years, almost 7,000 kimberlite pipes
have been sampled by geologists, about 1,000of
which have been diamondiferous. However,only
about 60 of these are sufficiently richin diamond to
be economically viable. Just seven mines (Jwaneng
and Orapa in Botswana, Udachny and Mir in Russia,
Premier (now Cullinan) and Venetia in South Africa
and Catoca in Angola) are what miners refer to as
Tier 1 deposits with more than US$20 billion worth
of reserves (see Fig. 31).
Overall, the global mining industry is facing
increasing pressure on capital expenditure, and in
recent years many large-scale development projects
have been placed on hold.
60
53
Kimberlite Nonpipes
diamondsampled
iferous
Diamondiferous
deposits
NonEconomical Tier
economical deposits
2&3
7
Tier 1i
49
50
03
IN FO CU S
51
IN FO CU S:
CHANGI NG C O N S U M E R
PRE F ER E NC ES A N D T H E
GROW T H O F BRA N D S
IN T HE U N I T E D STATES
AND CHI N A
The diamond dream is very much alive. The physical
attributes that diamond jewellery consumers are
drawn to the sparkle and beauty of diamonds
are accompanied by emotional associations of love
and promise, prestige, mystique, tradition and a
sense of the eternal. Diamonds continue to be seen
as an emotional symbol and a store of value.
However, the diamond industry cannot afford to
take this situation for granted, especially when
the consumer landscape is changing so rapidly.
This In Focus section provides an insight into
the changes in two of the worlds most important
diamond consumer markets: the US, the worlds
largest, and China, the worlds fastest growing.
The results shown here are drawn from extensive
consumer research commissioned by De Beers. In its
most recent survey, the research covered over 20,000
women in the US (nationally representative) and
over 10,000 women in China (representative of 123
Tier 1, 2 and 3 cities).
52
100
Mens &
Teens DJ
Womens DJ (WDJ)
94
Bridal DJ
Non-Bridal DJ
Teens DJ
30
64
DER
MWDJ
26
52
DWB
4
Note:
SWDJ
Mens DJ
12 5
Source: De Beers
53
NON-BRIDAL
DER
12
DWBi
Single
Women
(SWDJ)
35
Married
Women
(MWDJ)
50
+6.2
US$3,700
28
-0.6
US$2,300
-0.6
-0.3
-5.3
Pieces
i
+8.1
US$600
13
-8.8
55
+1.4
US$1,400
Value
In 2013, diamond wedding band (DWB) defined as ring with a setting of diamonds in a single row, all about the same size
Source: De Beers
Per cent
100
Jewellery
Fashion
Time pieces
Electronics
100
13
21
9
10
54
36
30
39
2007
Source: Mindshare
42
2013
13.7
11.2
8.3
Luxury accessories
5.1
4.1
Luxury tobacco
3.1
2.5
Luxury jewellery
1.9
Design apparel
1.8
(0.5)
TRENDS TO WATCH
DIAMOND JEWELLERY RECYCLING
Trading of previously owned diamonds (sellback, trade-up) is a normal part of the lifecycle of
jewellery and forms a growing segment of the diamond jewellery industry. However, this activity
has attracted greater attention in the diamond industry in recent years, as its scale was boosted
not only by the global economic downturn but also by the accompanying appreciation of gold
prices during that period. In many cases, consumers wanted to sell back their goldjewellery,
and diamonds were simply a by-product; on other occasions, the diamond was the main item
being soldback.
Due to the lack of a reliable buy-back offer from traditional retailers, US consumers have
increasingly turned to pawnbrokers and to high-visibility, non-specialised new entrants to sell
back their diamond jewellery. Consumers whohave sold diamond jewellery through these
channels have often left dissatisfied, especially due to a perceived lack of transparency and
objectivity in the pricing of their jewellery. Consumers who trade up their diamond jewellery
throughspecialised channels are generally less dissatisfied with their experience.
The recycling trend could undermine trust in the diamond industry and consumers belief in
the diamond dream. The industry will need to continue to work towards offering consumers
expert advice and clear choices when it comesto recycling of diamond jewellery.
55
56
22
2002
2011
2013
Source: De Beers
57
BRITNEYS JOURNEY
TESTIMONAL
BRITNEYS
PROFILE
26 years old
When I Googled
engagement rings,
Tiffany was the
first website to pop
up. I used its ring
finder to get an
idea of styles and
cuts and decided
I wanted a
cushion cut.
Shortly afterwards
Britney and her
fianc Kevin went
to try on rings.
They made a
special trip to the
mall where they
could browse a
number of highend department
stores and jewellers
in one go.
Event
co-ordinator for
a cruise ship
company
Lives in Chicago
CONTEXT
Has a
Forevermark
diamond
engagement ring
Note:
Names have been changed
Source: De Beers
In 2013, 36% of
consumers and 53%
of brides browsed
jewellery stores
before purchase,
visiting an average
of three stores each.
Few women decide
what they want
before going in-store.
In 2013:
48% purchase
decisions made
on the spot
Only 14%
completely selected
before purchase.
FIG. 38: 2013 FEMALE CONSUMERS WITH HOUSEHOLD FIG. 39: CHANGE IN TYPE OF POLISHED CONSUMED
20082013 CAGR
INCOME OVER US$150K ACCOUNTED FOR
Per cent
High
0%
+11%
(7)%
(11)%
Clarityi
14
8
Low
Small
Of consumer base for
diamond jewellery
Of diamond
jewellery pieces sold
Of diamond jewellery
sales by value
ii
Source: De Beers
58
Large
Sizeii
I couldnt believe
it when Kevin
pulled out the box
and I saw it was
from Forevemark! I
guess I secretly
hoped he would get
it. It was such a
nice surprise!
A few months
later, the couple
returned to the
same store to buy
their wedding
rings, which they
had tried on earlier
when they were
browsing for
engagement rings.
Kevins was plain,
but Britney wanted
a few diamonds on
the wedding ring
as well.
In the high-end
bridal market (DER
over US$8,000),
three- quarters of
couples have a
defined budget for
the DER.
In 2013, many
women bought
another piece of
diamond jewellery
in addition to their
DER for the
wedding occasion:
Earrings: 9%
Necklace: 8%
Bracelet: 4%.
Im very proud
of my ring and
love it when people
ask me about it
I can tell them
all about the
inscription and
the fact it is
responsibly
sourced.
59
CHINA
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2003
2007
2013
Source: De Beers
Bridal
Single women
Married women
72
Consumers
Note:
24
RMB 10,300(US$1,700)
14
11
RMB 7,000(US$1,100)
65
65
RMB 9,000(US$1,500)
Pieces
Value
Source: De Beers
60
21
24
Self purchase
48 48
ALL OTHER
36
31 31
Gift
30
31
27
25
17
DIAMOND
Affluent (>US$34,000)
Mainstream (US$16,00034,000)
Value (US$6,00015,999)
Poor (<US$6,000)
Projected CAGR
20002020
Per cent
100
100
100
0
1
20
51
27
36
10
-4
2010
2020
63
82
36
2000
i
In real 2010 dollars; in 2010, US$1 = RMB 6.73
Source: De Beers
61
estimatedi
RETAILER
16,000
192
32
203
2
15,500
14,500
14,000
13,000
12,000
12,000
10,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
i
De Beers estimate, numbers are approximate
Source: Public filings and De Beers analysis
100
Mens
DJ
WDJ
97
Bridal DJ
23
Wedding
ring
13
3
Non Bridal DJ
74
MWDJ
63
DER/
Commitment
ring
10
Note:
Source: De Beers
62
SWDJ
11
Per cent
US
JAPAN
50 YEARS
80
Peak
30 YEARS
Peak
77
18 YEARS
Peak
48
10
3
1940
1990
1965 1995
1
1994 2012 Peak
year
Source: De Beers
Milestone
route
Spoiling
route
Around
Around
Around
50%
23%
16%
of all journeys
of all journeys
of all journeys
Source: De Beers
63
JI L AYMAYS JOURNEY
TESTIMONAL
Ms Ji planned to buy a
diamond ring because her
wedding was approaching.
She thought that a
diamond ring was a
necessity for her marriage.
CONTEXT
JI LAYMAYS
PROFILE
26 years old
Ms Ji decided to learn
more about diamonds on
the internet before
continuing her search.
That is the first time she
noticed the brand
Forevermark, although
she did not click the link.
Online, she learnt about
the 4Cs and browsed
various designs and cuts.
Living in
Shanghai
An employee
working in
finance
A wedding
diamond ring
bought from
Donghua
Source: De Beers
64
Ms Ji went to some
jewellery stores on Nanjing
Road, such as
Laofengxiang, Xieruilin
and Laomiaohuangjin,
but none of their products
attracted her. Finally, she
went to the Donghua store
which is located in
Nanjing Road. She went to
the Forevermark counter
and chose a 75 point
diamond solitaire to try.
The salesman gave her
another two (60 points
and 70 points) to compare.
65
IN FO CU S:
TH E M I R AC LE
OF P R O DU CTI O N
Challenges and innovation in rough
diamondproduction.
66
FIG. 48: COSTS INCREASES ACROSS THE MOST COMMON OPEX INPUT
FACTORS
CAGR 2002-2012 in local currencies (nominal), per cent
ELECTRICITY
Botswana
LABOUR
16i
11
South Africa
14
Russia
Canada
DIESEL
11
12
14ii
19
17
i
From 2006 to 2012
ii
From 2002 to 2011
Source: South Africa: Eskom, SAPIA, South Africa Department of Mineral Reserves; Botswana: Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources,
Botswana department of statistics, press searches; Russia: Russian Statistics
67
FROM
DISCOVERY
TO START OF
PRODUCTION
Time lapse to
development has
increased for
diamond mines.
68
M I NE
YEARS TO
P R OD U CTION
Mir
Aikhal
Udachny
Orapa
International
4 years
1 year
16 years
4 years
2 years
Jwaneng
Jubilee
Argyle
Catoca
Ekati
Zarnitsa
10 years
10 years
6 years
29 years
17 years
45 years
Komsomolskya
Nyurba
Diavik
Arkhangelskaya
Victor
Snap Lake
26 years
5 years
9 years
25 years
20 years
11 years
Grib
Karpinskogo-1
Botuobinskaya
Gahcho Ku
Renard
18 years
35 years
21 years
21 years
16 years
average
5 years
average
20 years
average
16 years
average
22 years
195 0
1960
1 9 70
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
69
DIAMONDS IN
THE D ESERT
CUT-5
CUT-7
2011
1
3300 M
OVERHEAD VIEW
CUT-6
CENTRE
CUT-8
PIPE
CUT-5
CU
2320 M
CUT-8
CUT-7
20177
6244 M
C T-6
CU
1640 M
70
CENTRE PIPE
(diamond bearing ore)
FIRE IN
THE ICE
CANADA
SNAP LAKE
Thousands of miles lie between the heat of Botswana
and the frozen lakes of the Canadian Arctic. Canada
has been home to some of the largest recent
developments of diamond mines; however, mining
in the Arctic carries particular challenges. One
example of this is De Beers mine at Snap Lake in the
Northwest Territories, 220 kilometres north of the
closest city, Yellowknife.
SAFETY IS A BIG DEAL AT SNAP LAKE THE MINE HAS WON TWO
71
TREASURES
OF THE DEEP
72
73
IN FO CU S:
SAF EG UA R D I N G T H E
IND U ST RY T H R O U G H
TECHN O LO GY
Technology plays a vital role across the entire diamond pipeline,
helping both to secure future supply and to maintain the
diamonddream.
EXPLORATION
Geologists rely on technological innovation to help
them discover new viable sources of diamonds
in locations that are often remote, previously
underexplored and difficult to work in, such as
near the Arctic Circle. In many such remote areas,
traditional approaches to exploration are limited,
and geologists therefore need to use new techniques
to select targets51.
One new exploration technique, in particular, has
been made possible by the recent development of
SQUID (Super Conducting Quantum Interference
Device). SQUID is a very sensitive magnetometer used
to measure extremely subtle magnetic fields. This
technology provides significant benefits over current
exploration methods such as airborne magnetic
and ground exploration systems, and has provided
geologists with an important new tool52.
74
PRODUCTION
Technology also plays an important role in the
advancement of mining with ever-improving process
efficiencies and novel and unique extraction methods.
De Beers has been at the forefront of many of these
innovations, ranging from process improvements
through the adoption of dense media cyclones to the
exploitation of new resources by the pioneering of
marine mining for offshore deposits.
SAFETY
Technology also helps geologists and producers to
manage the safety risks associated with operating in
remote locations. Commercially available technologies
include SMARTY cameras in vehicles to encourage
safe driving, monitor driving behaviour, and enhance
overall safety on the road; rollover protection aimed
at protecting equipment operators and motorists from
injuries caused by vehicle overturns or rollovers; and
smaller, safer drill rigs.
MIDSTREAM OPERATORS
In sorting, valuing and sales, De Beers utilises
proprietary technology to produce consistent
assortments of its diamonds to satisfy the needs
of its customers. In order to achieve this at
economically viable rates, De Beers has developed
and implemented advanced proprietary sorting
technology for weighing and shape/colour/quality
sorting of around 300 million stones that pass
through the business each year. Sophisticated electromechanical feed and dispense mechanisms, and stateof-the-art image-processing, enable the fastest sorting
machines to operate at up to 15 stones per second.
75
76
WHAT IS A SYNTHETIC?
A synthetic is a product that has been partly or
completely crystallised by artificial or human
intervention through a variety of processes, such
as High Pressure High Temperature (HPHT) or
Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD).
In some cases, synthetic diamond stones are treated
to improve their colour, using heat treatment,
irradiation or a combination of these treatments.
The first commercially successful synthesis of
diamond was announced by the General Electric
Company in 1955. These synthetics were produced
using HPHT processes. An alternative method
of diamond synthesis carried out by Union
Carbide, based on Chemical Vapour Deposition
techniques, is claimed to have pre-dated that of
HPHT by two years.
The primary use of synthetics since then has been
in industry, where they are used for wide range of
applications, including mechanical, optical and
electronic. Significant advances in the production
of synthetics have occurred since then, with the
first incidence of HPHT synthetics in the jewellery
industry being noticed in the late 1980s and that
of CVD synthetics in the late 1990s57.
77
DE BEERS PROPRIETARY
DETECTION TECHNOLOGY
De Beers continues to make its detection technology
available to Sightholders and the industry at large.
Additionally, the company is working to raise
awareness of how undisclosed synthetics might
deliberately orunwittingly be introduced into the
pipeline and of how this risk can be managed.
De Beers has developed four different types of
detection machines and introduced them to the
wider diamond industry:
DiamondSure is a portable
screening instrument
designed to screen rapidly for
synthetics and simulants (with
a measurement time of a few
seconds per stone).
DiamondView is designed to
identify the two per cent of stones
that are referred for further
testing by DiamondSure.
From the characteristic surface
fluorescence patterns which
are imaged and produced by short-wave ultra-violet
illumination, a user is able to identify whether a
stone is natural or synthetic.
DiamondPlus simplifies
and significantly speeds up
the task of detecting HPHT
treatments applied to type II
natural diamonds. It tests loose
diamonds of between 0.05 and
10 carats within 15 seconds. DiamondPlus also helps
to identify CVD synthetics, by detecting a feature
which is very commonly found in CVD synthetics
currently available.
78
79
80
GLOSSARY
BENEFICIATION Creation of activities beyond mining the
natural resource in producing countries. For diamonds, this
usually means sorting, valuing, selling and manufacturing
4Cs The four main characteristics that define the quality
of a polished diamond: carat, colour, cut and clarity
CAGR Compound annual growth rate, a year-on-year
percentage growth rate over a specified period of time
CARAT A unit of mass for diamonds and gemstones,
standardised worldwide in the 20th century at exactly
one-fifth of a gram (the metric carat). One of the 4Cs
CARATS PER PIECE The number of carats in an individual
piece of jewellery
COLOURLESS DIAMOND A diamonds colour is a result of its
composition: colourless diamonds allow more light to pass
through than a coloured diamond
CONFLICT DIAMONDS Mined rough diamonds used to fund
rebel and revolutionary activities against legitimate and
internationally recognised governments
81
82
83
END NOTES
1
19
20
21
22
http://eng.alrosa.ru/operations/sales-policy/; accessed
on 1 August 2014
23
24
Company filings
25
26
https://kimberleyprocessstatistics.org/static/pdfs/
public_statistics/2013/2013 GlobalSummary.pdf ;
accessed on 1 August 2014
27
https://www.riotintodiamonds.com/ENG/media/
media_releases_1429.asp; accessed on 1 August 2014
28
https://www.riotintodiamonds.com/ENG/ourmines/
argyle_diamond_diamonds.asp; accessed on 1 August 2014
29
http://www.bhpbilliton.com/home/investors/news/
Pages/Articles/BHP-Billiton-Completes-Sale-ofDiamonds-Business-to-Dominion-Diamond-Corporation.
aspx; accessed on 1 August 2014
30
31
32
33
34
35
Mindshare 2014
36
10
11
12
13
Mindshare 2014
14
15
16
http://www.israelidiamond.co.il/english/news.
aspx?boneid=3024; accessed on 1 August 2014
17
18
84
37
52
http://www.ewh.ieee.org/tc/csc/europe/newsforum/
pdf/H16_IPHT_MiningAwardPressAnnounce_120307.
pdf and http://www.angloamerican.co.za/ouroperations/mining-and-technology.aspx; accessed on 1
August 2014
38
39
53
http://www.debtech.com/pdf/Leaflet_Scannex.pdf;
accessed on 1 August 2014
40
54
55
56
http://www.diamonds.net/News/NewsItem.
aspx?ArticleID=40156 and http://www.israelidiamond.
co.il/english/News.aspx?boneId=2525&objid=11188;
accessed on 1 August 2014
57
http://www.e6.com/wps/wcm/connect/e6_
content_en/home/the+power+of+supermaterials/
synthetic+diamonds+extreme+properties; accessed on
1 August 2014
58
41
42
43
44
http://www.chinainternetwatch.com/5132/mobilebroadband-became-daily-life-necessity-in-china/;
accessed on 1 August 2014
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
85
Please note that names such as Tiffany, Cartier, Chanel and Harry Winston are trademarks of the respective brand owners.
De Beers UK Limited is a member of The De Beers Group of Companies and is a limited liability company, incorporated in
England and Wales (Registered Number 02054170) with its registered office at 17 Charterhouse Street, London, EC1N 6RA.
De BeersTM, A Diamond is ForeverTM, DTCTM, ForevermarkTM, and TM are used under licence by De Beers UK Limited.
De Beers UK Limited 2014. All rights reserved.
A member of the Anglo American plc group.
86
DE BEERS UK LTD
17 CHARTERHOUSE STREET
LONDON
EC1N 6RA
www.debeersgroup.com/insightreport
@DEBEERSGROUP
#DIR2014