Exercises

Module 1
Department of Statistics
Ume
a University

1. Let A and B be events where P (A) > 0 and P (B) > 0. Show that, if A
and B are mutually exclusive, they consequently have to be dependent.
2. Let A and B, where P (A) > 0 and P (B) > 0, be two non mutually
exclusive events. Assume that P (AB) = P (A). Show that P (A|B) =
1.
3. Assume that when a company launch a commercial drive for a product
they calculate as follows; 20 % of the customers will see the commercial.
Assume further that 15 % of those (the customers whove seen the
commercial) also buy the product. Finally, 5 % of the customers who
do not see the commercial will buy the product.
(a) Determine the probability that a randomly chosen customer will
buy the product.
(b) Determine the relative frequency of those buying the product and
have seen the commercial.
Answer a) 0.070 b) 0.429
4. Let the random variable X be defined as the number of rented cars
per day. Previous records give us the probability distribution of X:
x
0
1
2
3
4

p(x)
0.10
0.25
0.40
0.20
0.05

Assume that the renting company charges 400 Skr for one car per day.
For simplicity we count every rented car as rented for a day.
(a) Determine the distribution function of X.
(b) Determine the expected value and standard deviation of X.
(c) The company has a fixed cost per day which is 600 Skr and a
flexible cost per rented car which is 50 Skr.
Write down the function which describes the profit per day as
a function of the number of rented cars for a day. Determine
the expected value and the standard deviation for the random
variable Profit during a day.
(d) Assume that the days are independent (with respect to the number of rented cars). Calculate the probability of the following
event: The accumulated profit two days in a row exceed 1000
2

Skr, i.e. the profit day 1 plus the profit day 2 is larger than 1000
Skr.
Answer b) E(X) = 1.85; x = 1.01 c) E(V inst) = 47.5; (vinst) = 355
d) 0.0225
5. A manufacturer of tools produces two metres yardsticks (sic!). The
length of a produced yardstick is said to be uniformly distributed on
the interval (1996, 2004) millimetres. The customers require the lentgh
of a yardstick to not differ more than 3 millimetres from 2000 millimetres.
(a) Determine the probability that a randomly chosen yardstick does
not fulfil the customers requirements.
(b) Let X be a random variable such that X = 1 if the yardstick
does not fulfil the customers requirements, and X = 0 if the
requirement is fulfilled. Write down the probability function for
X, and calculate the expected value and the standard deviation
of X.
(c) Assume that 25 yardsticks are randomly selected from the process. (Consider the populationen of produced yardsticks as very
large). Determine the probability that most two yardsticks of those 25 do not fulfil the requirements of the customers.
(d) The company produce 10000 yardsticks annually. How many of
these produced yardsticks can be expected to fulfil the customers
requirements?
Answer a) 0.250 b) E(X) = 0.250; (X) = 0.433 c) 0.0321 d) 7500
6. Tins are filled with oil by a machine. By experience one knows that the
oil volume vary. Consider the volume as a normal distributed variable
with standard deviation 20 cl.
(a) What mean value should be set if, in the long run, 95 % of all tins
shall contain at least 750 cl.
(b) Presuppose that the machine is set to the mean value previously
decided. The tins are packaged in boxes of 20 tins. Determine the
probability that most one tin contains less than 750 cl.
Answer a) = 782.9 b) 0.7358
7. Before a referendum in an unknown country, a sample survey is carried
out. The aim of the sample survey is to estimate the proportion of the
population who are in favour of membership in a certain union. Let X
be the variable number of those positive to membership

(a) Assume that the sample is random and suggest a model for the
variable X. Motivate!
(b) Assume that the proportion of those positive is 48 % and that the
sample size is n = 200. Determine the probability that at least
half of those selected in a randomly taken sample are positive to
membership. Use two digits in your answer.
Answer b) 0.28
8. Assume that the time a randomly selected student use to study the
week before exam is normally distributed with unknown expected valuee, , and unknown standard deviation.
A random sample is taken of eight students and the following values
were reported: 40.2, 38.7, 49.5, 24.8, 19.9, 38.2, 30.4, 41.5
Use three digits in your answer.
(a) Calculate a 95 % confidence interval for .
(b) Is the probability 0.95 that is located within that interval?
Motivate.
Answer a) 35.4 8.08 b) no
9. A pharmacy company, K. Gr
abn
arbs Lyckopiller AB, produces pills.
When the machine works, the amount of the active ingredient in a
randomly selected pill is normally distributed with the expected value
5 gram and the standard deviation 0.025 gram. (We assume that the
standard deviation is unchanged when the expected value changes.)
Test at the significance level 5 % the hypothesis that the machine works
well, i.e. the expected value is 5 gram, if in a random sample the
following weights of the active ingredient are observed:
5.01, 4.96, 5.03, 4.98, 4.98, 4.95, 5.00, 5.00, 5.03, 5.01, 5.04, 4.95
Answer We can not reject the null hypothesis.
10. A group of 10000 persons were asked if they had read the paper A and
the paper B. The result of the survey was as follow:
(a) Determine the probability that a randomly selected person has
read both the papers.
(b) Determine the probability that a randomly selected person has
read at least one paper.
(c) Given that a person has read paper A, what is the probability
that the same person also read paper B?
4

Non read

Paper A
Non read Read
5500
900

6400

Paper B
Read

300
5800

3300
4200

3600
10 000

(d) Given that a person did not read paper A, what is the probability
that the same person has read paper B?
(e) Is there independence between reading the two papers?
Answer a) 0.33 b) 0.45 c) 0.79 d) 0.05 e) no independence
11. Three persons; A, B and C works at the same place. By experience
we know that the probability that they will arrive in time to work is
0.80, 0.70 and 0.60. Furher, it is reasonable to assume the all three of
them arrive independent of each other. Determine the probability that
a morning
(a) everyone arrives in time.
(b) not a single one arrives in time.
(c) at least one of the three arrives in time.
Use three decimals in your answer.
Svar a) 0.336 b) 0.024 c) 0.976
12. The probability that a person of age x shall survive one more year is
px , and qx = 1 px is the probability of death within a year. A board
concists of a chairman who is 65 years and five members, which all are
60 years old. Let q60 = 0.025 and q65 = 0.040, calculate the probability
that within a year
(a) No member dies.
(b) At most one member dies.
(c) The entire board survives.
(d) Only the chairman dies.
Use 3 decimals in your answer.
Answer a) 0.881 b) 0.994 c) 0.846 d) 0.035
uppg.29 -

13. A pharmaceutical company produces an ointment which is tapped into tubes. Asume that the amount of ointment in a tube is normally
distributed with expected value 155 grams and standard deviation 4.0
grams.
(a) On each tube the label declares Contains at least 150 grams!Calculate
the probability that a ramdomly choosen tube does not live up
to the declaration on the tube.
(b) Tubes are choosen randomly and boxed, 16 tubes per box. What
is the probability that at least 14 tubes in a box fulfils the companys promise of atleast 150 grams ointment in a tube?
Answer a) 0.106 b) 0.765