KEYU JIN ( )

k.jin@lse.ac.uk

http://personal.lse.ac.uk/jink/
Office Contact Information
Department of Economics
London School of Economics
Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE UK
Gender: Female
Nationality: China
Academic Position:
September-December 2012: Visiting Professor at Yale University (Cowles fellowship)
September 2009: Lecturer (Assistant Professor) of Economics, London School of Economics
Education:
Ph.D. in Economics, Harvard University, 2004 -2009
B.A., Economics, Harvard College, magna cum laude, 2000-2004
Thesis Title: Essays on Global Capital Flows, Asset Prices and Portfolio Views of External
Adjustment
Teaching and Research Fields:
Primary fields: International Finance, Macroeconomics
Secondary fields: International Trade, the Chinese Economy
Research Experience and Other Employment:
Summer 2009
Summer 2008
Summer 2005
Summer 2004
Summer 2003
Summer 2002
Summer 2001
Summer 2000

Morgan Stanley, Hong Kong, Research Department

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Department
Research assistant for Professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart
BNP Paribas, Paris, Fixed Income analyst
World Bank Group, Washington D.C., Research Department consultant
Goldman Sachs International, London, Investment Banking analyst
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Hong Kong, Equity Research /Macroeconomics
J.P. Morgan, Singapore, Derivatives

Teaching
Global Macroeconomics (Executive Education program), International Macroeconomics and Finance
(PhD program), International Macroeconomics (undergraduate), Advanced Economic Analysis--Macroeconomics (undergraduate)
Professional Activities
Board of Editors: Review of Economic Studies
Referee for American Economic Review, Economics of Transition, European Economic Review, Journal
of Economic Growth, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal
of International Money and Banking, Journal of International Economics, Quarterly Journal of
Economics, Review of Economic Studies, Economic Journal, Review of Economic Dynamics, Economic
letters

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:

2012
Cowles Fellowship, Yale University
2008-2009
Chiles Fellowship
2008-2009
NBER Aging and Health Fellowship
2008-2009
Harvard GSAS Dissertation Fellowship
2004-2006
Harvard University GSAS Scholarship
2004
Allyn Young Thesis Prize in Economics

Seminar Presentations: International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, London School of Economics.
London Business School, INSEAD, Brown University, National Bureau of Economic Research, Harvard
University, Paris School of Economics, Bank of England, Trinity College University of Dublin,
University of Michigan, Fudan University, Hong Kong Chinese University, Tsinghua University, HKU,
University of Minnesota, University of Wisconsin Madison, New York University, Yale University.
Conferences: Conference on global macroeconomics, (February 2010), ESSIM (May 2010), NBER
summer institute (2010), Econometric Society (2011), NBER summer institute (2011), Science Po
Macro-Finance Conference (2011), SED (2011), Tsinghua Summer Macroeconomics (2011), SED
(2012), New Developments in Macroeconomics (UCL 2012);
Published Papers:
Industrial Structure and Capital Flows, American Economic Review, 102 (5):2111-2146. 2012.
This paper provides a new theory of international capital flows. In a framework that integrates factorproportions-based trade and financial capital flows, a novel force emerges: capital tends to flow
towards countries that become more specialized in capital-intensive industries. This `composition'
effect competes with the standard force that channels capital towards the location where it is scarcer. If
the composition effect dominates, capital flows away from the country hit by a positive labor
force/productivity shock---a flow ``reversal''. Extended to a quantitative framework, the model
generates sizable current account imbalances between developing and developed countries broadly
consistent with the data.
Composition and Growth Effects of the Current Account: A Synthesized Portfolio View, (with Kai
Guo), Journal of International Economics, 79(1): 31-41. 2009.
This paper analyzes a useful accounting framework that breaks down the current account to two
components: a composition effect and a growth effect. We show that past empirical evidence, which
strongly supports the growth-effect as the main driver of current account dynamics, is misconceived. The
remarkable empirical success of the growth effect is driven by the dominance of the cross-sectional
variation, which, under conditions met by the data, is generated by an accounting equation. In contrast to
previous findings that the portfolio share of net foreign assets to total assets is constant in a country, both
our theoretical and empirical results support a highly persistent process or a unit root process, with some
countries displaying a trend. Finally, we reestablish the composition effect as the quantitatively dominant
driving force of current account dynamics in the past data.

Working Papers:
``Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy(with Nicolas Coeurdacier and Stephane
Guibaud), American Economic Review, Revise and Resubmit.
Two contributions of this paper are: (1) documenting new facts about the behavior of capital and laborintensive goods over the business cycle; (2) illustrating a new transmission mechanism of international
business cycle shocks through the relative price of capital to labor-intensive goods. In a two-country
stochastic multi-sector growth model, an endogenous mechanism arising from compositional changes and
international trade can bring about positive investment and output comovement across countries. We
show that essential segments of the transmission process receive strong empirical support. Also,
quantitative predictions of our model can match aggregate statistics and generate empirically plausible
sectoral compositional effects.
International Transmission Through Relative Prices (with Nan Li), Jan 2013.
This paper documents new facts about the behavior of capital and labor-intensive goods over the business
cycle. It illustrates a new transmission mechanism of international business cycle shocks through their
relative prices. In a two-country stochastic growth model that distinguishes sectors by factor intensity,
productivity shocks lead to changes in the composition of production and trade across countries. An
endogenous mechanism that arises through these compositional changes bring about positive investment
and output comovement across countries. Evidence supporting the central propagation mechanism
includes: (1) labor-intensive production and employment are highly procyclical among OECD economies
(2) the relative price of capital-intensive to labor-intensive goods is procyclical and volatile (3) the net
exports of capital-intensive sectors of the U.S to European economies are more countercyclical than
labor-intensive sectors. Our quantitative results can match aggregate statistics and generate empirically
plausible sectoral compositional effects.
``The One-Child Policy and Chinese household savings, (with Nicolas Coeurdacier and Taha
Choukhmane), Feb 2013.
This paper analyzes the impact of the `one child policy' in China on its household saving behavior. First,
it develops a life-cycle model with endogenous fertility, intergenerational transfers and human capital
accumulation. We show a macroeconomic and a microeconomic channel of a fall in fertility on raising
aggregate household saving: at the macroeconomic level, the population composition shifts initially
towards the middle-aged---the high savers of the economy. At the microeconomic level, (1) expenditures
of children fall---despite higher education investment in each child---as quantity substitutes for quality;
(2) middle-aged save additionally for retirement in anticipation of reduced transfers from their only child.
Second, our quantitative model implies policy-induced changes in aggregate savings and age-saving
profiles broadly consistent with estimates from Chinese household-level data. Third, an empirical study
using the birth of twins as a source of exogenous increase in fertility is shown to support the microeconomic channels we highlight. Overall, our estimation suggests that the policy is able to account for at
least xx\% of the rise in household savings rate since its implementation in 1980.
Trading Away the Age Wave (with Sabine Jokisch), July 2012.
This paper analyzes the interaction between demographic heterogeneity across countries and an
endogenous structure of trade in shaping the global economy. It shows theoretically how asset prices
relate to a country's comparative advantage as affected by demographic forces. In a quantitative
investigation of a two-country, multi-period OLG model that marries factor-proportions trade and
financial capital flows, we show that the developing countries can help mitigate the consequences of the
``age wave'' in the advanced economies---leading to a rise in the price of capital, wages, and savings rate
that are diametrically opposite of standard predictions. Protectionist policies that either inhibit trade or
capital flows reduce the extent to which demographics can be shared across economies, and are largely
welfare-reducing for industrialized economies.

Other Publications
``International Trade and Capital flows in Encyclopedia of Financial Globalization
Op-ed
``Why Savings Patterns are So Different, Project Syndicate, September 2012
``Europe should stop arguing and look to Asia, Financial Times, June 2012
``Why Capital Flows Uphill, Project Syndicate, Jan 2012.
Welcome Chinese Money (with Andy Xie)
Languages:
Bilingual in Chinese and English, fluent in French.