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Chapter 230

Circular Data
Analysis
Introduction
This procedure computes summary statistics, generates rose plots and circular histograms, computes hypothesis
tests appropriate for one, two, and several groups, and computes the circular correlation coefficient for circular
data.
Angular data, recorded in degrees or radians, is generated in a wide variety of scientific research areas. Examples
of angular (and cyclical) data include daily wind directions, ocean current directions, departure directions of
animals, direction of bone-fracture plane, and orientation of bees in a beehive after stimuli.
The usual summary statistics, such as the sample mean and standard deviation, cannot be used with angular
values. For example, consider the average of the angular values 1 and 359. The simple average is 180. But with a
little thought, we might conclude that 0 is a better answer. Because of this and other problems, a special set of
techniques have been developed for analyzing angular data. This procedure implements many of those techniques.

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Technical Details
Suppose a sample of n angles a1 , a2 ,..., a n is to be summarized. It is assumed that these angles are in degrees.
Fisher (1993) and Mardia & Jupp (2000) contain definitions of various summary statistics that are used for
angular data. These results will be presented next. Let
n

Cp =

Cp

cos( pai ) , Cp =

i =1

, Sp =

sin( pa ) , S
i

i =1

C p2 + S p2 , Rp =

Rp =

1 S p
tan
Cp

Sp

Tp = tan 1 +
Cp

S
tan 1 p + 2

Cp

Sp
n

Rp
n

C p > 0, S p > 0
Cp < 0
S p < 0, C p > 0

To interpret these quantities it may be useful to imagine that each angle represents a vector of length one in the
direction of the angle. Suppose these individual vectors are arranged so that the beginning of the first vector is at
the origin, the beginning of the second vector is at the end of the first, the beginning of the third vector is at the

end of the second, and so on. We can then imagine a single vector a that will stretch from the origin to the end of
the last observation.

R1 , called the resultant length, is the length of a . R1 is the mean resultant length of a . Note that R1 varies
between zero and one and that a value of R1 near one implies that there was little variation in values of the
angles.
The mean direction, , is a measure of the mean of the individual angles. is estimated by T1 .
The circular variance, V, measures the variation in the angles about the mean direction. V varies from zero to one.
The formula for V is

V = 1 R1
The circular standard deviation, v, is defined as

v =

2 ln( R1 )

The circular dispersion, used in the calculation of confidence intervals, is defined as

1 T2
2 R12

The skewness is defined as

s =

R2 sin(T2 2T1 )

(1 R )

3/ 2

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Circular Data Analysis

The kurtosis is defined as

k =

R2 cos(T2 2T1 ) R14

(1 R )

Correction for Grouped Data

When the angles are grouped, a multiplicative correction for R may be necessary. The corrected value is given by

R p* = gR p
where

g =

/J
sin( / J )

Here J is the number of equi-sized arcs. Thus, for monthly data, J would be 12.

Confidence Interval for the Mean Direction

Upton & Fingleton (1989) page 220 give a confidence interval for the mean direction when no distributional
assumption is made as

T1 sin 1 ( z / 2 )
where

=
H =

n(1 H )
4 R2

n
n

1
cos(2T1 ) cos(2ai ) + sin(2T1 ) sin(2ai )
n
i =1
i =1

Circular Uniform Distribution

Uniformity refers to the situation in which all values around the circle are equally likely. The probability
distribution on a circle with this property is the circular uniform distribution, or simply, the uniform distribution.
The probability density function is given by

f (a ) =

1
360

The probability between any two points is given by

Pr(a1 < a 2 | a1 a 2 , a 2 a1 + 2 ) =

a 2 a1
360

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Tests of Uniformity
Uniformity refers to the situation in which all values around the circle are equally likely. Occasionally, it is useful
to perform a statistical test of whether a set of data do not follow the uniform distribution. Several tests of
uniformity have been developed. Note that when any of the following tests are rejected, we can conclude that the
data were not uniform. However, when the test is not rejected, we cannot conclude that the data follow the
uniform distribution. Rather, we do not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis of uniformity.
Rayleigh Test
The Rayleigh test, discussed in Mardia & Jupp (2000) pages 94-95, is the score test and the likelihood ratio test
for uniformity within the von Mises distribution family. The Rayleigh test statistic is 2nR 2 . For large samples, the
distribution of this statistic under uniformity is a chi-square with two degrees of freedom with an error of

( )

approximation of O n 1 . A closer approximation to the chi-square with two degrees of freedom is achieved by

( )

the modified Rayleigh test. This test, which has an error of O n 2 , is calculated as follows.

nR 4
1

S * = 1 2nR 2 +
2n
2
Modified Kuiper's Test
The modified Kuiper's test, Mardia & Jupp (2000) pages 99-103, was designed to test uniformity against any
alternative. It measures the distance between the cumulative uniform distribution function and the empirical
distribution function. It is accurate for samples as small as 8. The test statistic, V, is calculated as follows

0.24

V = Vn n + 0155
.
+

n
where

a
a
i
i 1
Vn = max ( i ) min ( i ) +
i =1 to n 360
n i=1 to n 360 n n
Published critical values of V are
V
1.537
1.620
1.747
1.862
2.001

Alpha
0.150
0.100
0.050
0.025
0.010

This table was used to create an interpolation formula from which the alpha values are calculated.
Watson Test
The following uniformity test is outlined in Mardia & Jupp pages 103-105. The test is conducted by calculating
U 2 and comparing it to a table of values. If the calculated value is greater than the critical value, the null
hypothesis of uniformity is rejected. Note that the test is only valid for samples of at least eight angles.
The calculation of U 2 is as follows

i 12
1
1

u + +
U = u( i )
2 12n
n
i =1
2

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where
n

u=

(i)

i =1

, u( i ) =

a( i )
360

a(1) a( 2 ) a( 3) a( n ) are the sorted angles. Note that maximum likelihood estimates of and are used
in the distribution function. Mardia & Jupp (2000) present a table of critical values that has been entered into
NCSS. When a value of U 2 is calculated, the table is interpolated to determine its significance level.
Published critical values of U 2 are

U2
0.131
0.152
0.187
0.221
0.267

Alpha
0.150
0.100
0.050
0.025
0.010

Von Mises Distributions

The Von Mises distribution takes the role in circular statistics that is held by the normal distribution in standard
linear statistics. In fact, it is shaped like the normal distribution, except that its tails are truncated.
The probability density function is given by

f (a; , ) =

1
exp cos(a )
2 I 0 ( )

where I p ( x ) (the modified Bessel function of the first kind and order p) is defined by

1
x
I p ( x) =


r = 0 ( r + p ) !r ! 2

2r + p

p = 0,1,2,

In particular

1 x
I0 ( x ) =
2
2
r = 0 ( r !)
1
=
2

x cos ( )

2r

The parameter is the mean direction and the parameter is the concentration parameter.
The distribution is unimodal. It is symmetric about A. It appears as a normal distribution that is truncated at plus
and minus 180 degrees. When is zero, the von Mises distribution reduces to the uniform distribution. As gets
large, the von Mises distribution approaches the normal distribution.

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Point Estimation
The maximum likelihood estimate of is the sample mean direction. That is, = T1 .
The maximum likelihood of is the solution to

A1 ( ) = R
where

A1 ( x ) =

I1 ( x )
.
I0 ( x )

That is, the MLE of is given by

* = A11 ( R )
This can be approximated by (see Fisher (1993) page 88 and Mardia & Jupp (2000) pages 85-86)

5R 5
3
2 R + R + 6

0.43
*
= 0.4 + 139
. R+
1 R

3R 4 R 2 + R 3

R < 0.53
0.53 R < 0.53
R 0.85

This estimate is very biased. This bias is corrected by using the following modified estimator.

2
*

, 0 * < 2
max
*

3 *
n 15

( n 1)
=
*

n n2 + 1

*
n > 15

Test for a Specified Mean Direction of Von Mises Data

There are several different hypothesis tests that have been proposed for testing H 0 : = 0 versus H1: 0 ,
where 0 is a specific value of the mean direction. The tests presented here require the additional assumption that
the data follow the Von Mises distribution, at least approximately.
It will be useful to adopt the following notation.

1 n
C =
cos(ai 0 )
n i =1
*

1 n
S =
sin(ai 0 )
n i =1
*

R* =

[ S ] + [C ]
* 2

* 2

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Score Test
The score test, given by Mardia & Jupp (2000) page 123, is computed as

n
S*

A1 ( )

( )

S2 =

For large n, S2 follows the chi-square distribution with one degree of freedom.
Likelihood Ratio Test
The likelihood ratio test, given by Mardia & Jupp (2000) page 122, is computed as

[(

) ( )]
( )

4n R * 2 C * 2

2 C*

2
L =
1 C *

2n 3

log
2
1 R*
* 2
+ 3n
n + nC

( )
( )

if n 5 and C * 2 / 3

if n 5 and C * > 2 / 3

The test statistic, L2 , follows a chi-square distribution with one degree of freedom.
Watson & Williams Test
The Watson and Williams test, given by Mardia & Jupp (2000) page 123, is computed as

F=

R* C *
if C * 5 / 6
*
1 R / ( n 1)

The test statistic, F, follows an F distribution with one and n-1 degrees of freedom.
Stephens Test
This test, given by Fisher (1993) pages 93-94, is computed as

E=

sin(T1 0 )
1 / ( nR )

If 2 , E follows the standard normal distribution.

Confidence Interval for Mean Direction assuming Von Mises

A general confidence interval for was given above. When the data can be assumed to follow a von Mises
distribution, a more appropriate interval is given by Mardia & Jupp (2000) page 124 and Upton & Fingleton
(1989) page 269. This confidence interval is given by

2n 2 R 2 nz 2

T1 cos
R 2 4n z 2

n 2 n 2 R 2 exp z

n
T1 cos 1

if R 2 / 3

if R > 2 / 3

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Test for a Specified Concentration of Von Mises Data

Suppose you want to test a one-sided hypothesis concerning , given that the data come from a Von Mises
distribution and that the mean direction parameter is unknown. Fisher (1993) page 95 suggests the following
procedure when 2 .
When testing = 0 versus < 0 , reject the null hypothesis if

n21; 1
3
R <1
+ 2
2n 0 8 0
When testing = 0 versus > 0 , reject the null hypothesis if

R >1

n21;1 1
3
+ 2
2n 0 8 0

These tests are based on the result that

2n(1 R )
~ n21
1
3
+
0 8 02

Confidence Interval for Concentration of Von Mises

An approximate confidence interval for when > 2 was given by Mardia & Jupp (2000) pages 126-127 as
1 + 1 + 3b 1 + 1 + 3d
,

4b
4d

where

b=

d=

n(1 R )

n21,1 / 2
n(1 R )

n21, / 2

Goodness of Fit Tests for the Von Mises Distribution

Stephens Modified Watsons Test
The following goodness-of-fit test, published by Lockhart & Stephens (1985) as a modification of the Watson test
for the circle, is outlined in Fisher (1993) page 84. The test is conducted by calculating U 2 and comparing it to a
table of values. If the calculated value is greater than the critical value, the null hypothesis of Von Misesness is
rejected. Note that the test is only valid for samples of at least 20 angles.
The calculation of U 2 is as follows
2

2i 1
1

+
U = p ( i )
n
p

2n
2 12n
i =1
n

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where
n

p =

(i)

i =1

p ( i ) = F a( i ) T1

a(1) a( 2 ) a( 3) a( n ) are the sorted angles and F (a ) is the cumulative distribution function of the von
Mises distribution. Note that maximum likelihood estimates of and are used in the distribution function.
Lockhart & Stephens (1985) present a table of critical values that has been entered into NCSS. When a value of
U 2 is calculated, the table is interpolated to determine its significance level.
Cox Test
Mardia & Jupp (2000) pages 142-143 present a von Mises goodness-of-fit test that was originally given by Cox
(1975).
The test statistic, C, is distributed as a chi-squared variable with two degrees of freedom under the null hypothesis
that the data follow the von Mises distribution. It is calculated as follows.

C=

sc2
ss2
+
nv c ( ) nv s ( )

where
n

sc = cos 2(a i T1 ) n 2 ( )
i =1

ss = sin 2(a i T1 )
i =1

1 + 4
[ / 2 + 3 / 2 1 2 ]
22 1
vc ( x ) =
2
(1 + 2 ) / 2 12

vS ( x) =

1 4
2

2
1 3 )
(

1 2

Multi-Group Tests
Three multi-group tests are available for testing hypotheses about two or more groups. The nonparametric
uniform-scores test tests whether the distributions of the groups are identical. The Watson-Williams F test tests
whether a set of mean directions are equal given that the concentrations are unknown, but equal, given that the
groups each follow a von Mises distribution. The concentration homogeneity test tests whether the concentration
parameters are equal, given that the groups each follow a von Mises distribution.

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Mardia-Watson-Wheeler Uniform-Scores Test

Suppose you have g populations following any common distribution from which random samples are taken and
you wish to test whether these distributions are equal. Fisher (1993) page 122 and Mardia & Jupp (2000) pages
156-157 present a nonparametric test that is calculated as follows
g

Wg = 2

(C

2
Ri

where C Ri =

cos( ) , S
ij

( )

ni

Ri

j =1

ni

i =1

ni

+ S Ri2

= sin ij , n = ni , and ij are the circular ranks of the corresponding

j =1

i =1

angles. The circular ranks are calculated using

ij =

2rij
n

where the rij are the ranks of the corresponding aij .

If all ni are greater than 10, the distribution of Wg is approximately distributed as a chi-square with 2g-2 degrees
of freedom.
Since ranks are used in this test, ties become an issue. We have adopted the strategy of applying average ranks.
Note that little has been done to test the adoption of this strategy within the realm of circular statistics.

Watson-Williams High Concentration F Test

Suppose you have g Von Mises populations from which random samples are taken and you wish to test whether
their mean directions are equal. That is, you wish to test the null hypothesis

H 0 : 1 = 2 =... = g
Mardia & Jupp (2000) pages 134-135 present the Watson-William High-Concentration F Test that is calculated as
follows

g
R j R / ( g 1)

3 j =1

= 1 +
g
8

n R j / (n g)

j =1

FWW

where is the maximum likelihood estimate of the concentration based on R and

C + S , Cj =
2
j

Rj =

2
j

nj

nj

cos(a ) , S
i

i =1

sin(a ) ,
i

R =

i =1

C +S , C =
2

C
j =1

, S =

, and

j =1

n =

j =1

The distribution of FWW is approximately distributed as an F with g-1 and n-1 degrees of freedom when the
assumptions that 1 = 2 =... = g and that the distributions are Von Mises are made. The approximation also
requires that 1 .

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Multi-Group Concentration Homogeneity Test

Suppose you have g groups from which random samples are taken and you wish to test whether the
concentrations are equal. That is, you wish to test the null hypothesis

H 0 :1 = 2 =... = g
Mardia & Jupp (2000) page 139 presents such a test. It is divided into three cases.
Case I. R < 0.45
U1 is approximately distributed as a chi-square with g-1 degrees of freedom

w j f j
g
j =1

U 1 = w j f j2 g
j =1
wj

j =1

where w j =

) and

4 nj 4
3

f j = sin 1 2 R j 3 / 8

Case II. 0.45 R 0.70

U2 is approximately distributed as a chi-square with g-1 degrees of freedom

w
h

j
j
g
j =1
2

U 2 = wjhj
g
j =1
wj

j =1

where w j =

nj 3
0.797449

R j 1089

.258

and h j = sinh 1

Case III. R > 0.70

U3 is approximately distributed as a chi-square with g-1 degrees of freedom
g

n Rj g

n j R j
1
j =1

j log
U3=
log

1+ d
j
j =1

where j = n j 1 , = n g ,and d =

1 g 1 1
.
3( g 1) j =1 j

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Circular Correlation Measure

This section discusses a measure of the correlation between two circular variables presented by Jammalamadaka
and SenGupta (2001). Suppose a sample of n pairs of angles (a11 , a21 ),(a12 , a22 ),...,(a1n , a2 n ) is available. The
circular correlation coefficient is calculated as
n

rc =

sin(a

1k

k =1

sin (a
2

1k

k =1

T1,1 ) sin(a2 k T2,1 )

n

T1,1 ) sin 2 (a2 k T2,1 )

k =1

where T1,1 is the mean direction of the first circular variable and T2,1 is the mean direction of second.
The significance of this correlation coefficient can be test using the fact the zr is approximately distributed as a
standard normal, where

zr = rc

n2002

22

and

ij =

1 n
sin i (a1k T1,1 ) sin j (a2 k T2,1 )
n k =1

Data Structure
The data consist of one or more variables. Each variable contains a set of angular values. The rows may be
separated into groups using the unique values of an optional grouping variable. An example of a dataset
containing circular data is Circular1.S0. Missing values are entered as blanks (empty cells).

Procedure Options
This section describes the options available in this procedure.

Variables Tab
These options specify the variables that will be used in the analysis.

Data Variables
Data Variables
Specify one or more variables that contain the angular values. The values in these variables must be of the type
specified in 'Data Type'.
If more than one variable is specified, the format of the reports depend on whether a 'Grouping Variable' is used.
If a 'Grouping Variable' is specified, a separate set of reports is generated for each data variable. If no 'Grouping
Variable' is specified, each of these variables are treated as a different group in a single set of reports.

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Data Type
Specify the type of circular data that is contained in the Data Variables. Note that all variables must be of the
same data type. The possible data types are

Angle (0 to 360)
Data are in the range 0 to 360 degrees. Negative values are converted to positive values by subtracting them
from 360 (e.g. -20 becomes 340). Data outside 0 to 360 are converted to this range by subtracting (or adding)
360 until the value is in this range.

RADIAN (0 to 2 pi)
Data are in the range 0 to 2pi radian. Negative values are converted to positive values by subtracting them
from 2pi.

AXIAL (0 to 180)
Data are bidirectional. Axial data are converted to angular data by multiplying by two. Axial data may be in
the full 0-360 range.

Compass
Text data representing the 16 points of the compass are entered. Values are converted into degrees using the
recodes: N = 0, E = 90, S = 180, W = 270. Two and three letters may be used. For example, 'NNW' is north
by north-west.

Time (0-24)
Time of day values between 0 and 24 may be entered.

Weekday
Integers representing the days of the week are entered. The relationship is 1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday, ..., 7 =
Sunday. The integers are converted to degrees using 1 = 180/7, 2 = 180/7+360/7, and so on.

Month of Year
Integers representing the months of the year are entered. The relationship is 1 = January, 2 = February, ..., 12
= December. The integers are converted to degrees using 1 = 180/12, 2 = 180/12+360/12, and so on.

Grouping Variable
Grouping Variable
This optional variable separates the values of the Data Variables into groups. A separate analysis is then generated
for each group.
Note that when a grouping variable is specified, the correlations are not generated.
Grouping Correction Factor
When the same data values occur repeatedly, a correction factor is suggested for the calculation of R bar. This
correction factor depends on the number of unique values, which is entered here. If '0' is entered, no correction
factor is used.

Options Hypothesized Values

Hypothesized Theta
This optional parameter specifies the hypothesized value of theta (mean direction) under the null hypothesis. A set
of hypotheses tests are conducted to determine if the data support this hypothesized value.
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Note that this is a single-group test. If there are several groups, a separate test is provided for each group.
Hypothesized Kappa
This optional parameter specifies the hypothesized value of kappa (concentration) under the null hypothesis. A
hypothesis test is conducted to determine if the data support this hypothesized value.
Note that this is a single-group test. If there are several groups, a separate test is provided for each group.

Options Confidence Coefficient

Confidence Coefficient
Specify the value of confidence coefficient for the confidence intervals.

Reports Tab
The options on this panel control which reports and plots are displayed.

Select Reports
Summary Reports ... Correlations
Select these options to display the indicated reports.

Report Options
Show Notes
This option controls whether the available notes and comments that are displayed at the bottom of each report.
This option lets you omit these notes to reduce the length of the output.
Precision
Specify the precision of numbers in the report. A single-precision number will show seven-place accuracy, while
a double-precision number will show thirteen-place accuracy. Note that the reports were formatted for single
precision. If you select double precision, some numbers may run into others. Also note that all calculations are
performed in double precision regardless of which option you select here. This is for reporting purposes only.
Variable Names
This option lets you select whether to display only variable names, variable labels, or both.
Value Labels
This option applies to the Group Variable(s). It lets you select whether to display data values, value labels, or
both. Use this option if you want the output to automatically attach labels to the values (like 1=Yes, 2=No, etc.).
See the section on specifying Value Labels elsewhere in this manual.

Report Options Decimal Places

Mean and Probability Decimals
Specify the number of digits after the decimal point to display on the output of values of this type. Note that this
option in no way influences the accuracy with which the calculations are done.
Enter 'All' to display all digits available. The number of digits displayed by this option is controlled by whether
the PRECISION option is SINGLE or DOUBLE.

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Plots Tab
The options on this panel control the appearance of the plots.

Select Plots
Rose Plot / Circular Histogram (Combined) and Rose Plots / Circular Histograms (Individual)
Select these options to display the indicated plots.
Format
Click the plot format button to change the plot settings (see the Window Options below).
Edit During Run
Checking this option will cause the bar chart format window to appear when the procedure is run. This allows you
to modify the format of the graph with the actual data.

Rose Plot / Circular Histogram Window Options

This section describes the specific options available on the Rose Plot / Circular Histogram Format window, which
is displayed when a Rose Plot / Circular Histogram Format button is clicked. Common options, such as axes,
labels, legends, and titles are documented in the Graphics Components chapter.

Rose Plot Tab

Data Type
The data type of the plot is specified independently of the data type specified on the Variables tab of the Circular
Data Analysis procedure.

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Direction
This option indicates whether the orientation of the plot is in a 'Clockwise' or 'Counter-Clockwise' direction.

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Reference Angle (Rotation)

This option lets you indicate the position of 0 degrees by entering an offset angle. On the default circle, 0 degrees
is on the right (east), 90 degrees is at the top (north), 180 degrees is on the left (west), and 270 degrees is at the
bottom (south). This option lets you add an 'offset' to each angle which moves the position of 0 degrees around
the circle.
The offset must be between 0 and 360 degrees.

Interior Objects
The two choices for plot styles are Rose Plot and Circular Histogram.

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Group Display
When the data is grouped data, this option determines whether the petals within a bin are side-by-side, stacked
upon each other, or overlaid.
Side-by-Side
The bin width is divided equally by the number of groups and the petals are laid out sequentially in the bin.
Although the petals are narrower, they still encompass the points of the group that within the boundaries of the
whole bin.
Stacked
A single petal in each bin is divided by the number of groups. Rose plots with the group display set to Stacked
may be misleading because the proportional area is larger for the outside groups.
Overlaid
Each petal for each group is overlaid in each bin. Some degree of transparency is recommended when using the
Overlaid group display. It is also difficult to distinguish groups when there are more than 2 or 3 groups.

Radius for Interior Objects

This option specifies the distance to the outer edge of the bins and petals of the rose plot or circular histogram.

Petal Width
Specify the percent of the total width of each bin that is to be used for each petal.

Percent for Histogram Base

This is the percent of Radius for Interior Objects that is used for the base of the circular histogram.

Number of Bins
Specify the number of bins for the circle.

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First Bin Start Angle

This permits the user to change the angle at which the binning begins. This is useful, for example when the Data
Type is set to Compass, since this option can be used to center the bins on the directions. When Data Type is set
to Compass, the recommended First Bin Start Angle is 45 for 4 bins, 22.5 for 8 bins, and 11.25 for 16 bins.

Number of Radial Axes

Select the number of axes that go from the center to the outer edge of the interior region. If this is set to the same
number as the number of bins, these axes show the edges of the bins. The radial axes also begin at the First Bin
Start Angle.

Alternate Bin Fill

Check this box to show a background fill for each bin. The fills alternate beginning with Fill 1. When the number
of bins is odd, the adjacent first and last bins will both have Fill 1.

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Circular Data Analysis

Data & Means Tab

Raw Data Symbols
Check this box to show the raw data symbols.

Number of Raw Data Symbol Bins

Specify the number of bins for the raw data points. To use no binning set this to 0 or All Uniques.

First Bin Start Angle

This permits the user to change the angle at which the binning begins. This is useful, for example when the Data
Type is set to Compass, since this option can be used to center the bins on the directions.
When Data Type is set to Compass, the recommended First Bin Start Angle is 45 for 4 bins, 22.5 for 8 bins, and
11.25 for 16 bins.

Radius for Raw Data Symbols

This is the distance from the center at which the symbols are shown.

Width for Multiple Symbols at One Location

This specifies the width of the band that contains the symbols when there is more than one value at some
locations.

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Circular Data Analysis

Mean Symbols and Lines

Use these options to set up the visual representation of the circular means for each group.

References Tab
Direction References
The options in this section allow you to specify the tick marks and references going around the plot.

Magnitude References
The options in this section allow you to specify the tick marks and references going from the center to the outside
of the plot.

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Circular Data Analysis

Example 1 Analysis of Circular Data

This section presents an example of how to run this procedure. The data are wind directions of two groups. The
data are found in the Circular1 dataset.
You may follow along here by making the appropriate entries or load the completed template Example 1 by
clicking on Open Example Template from the File menu of the Circular Data Analysis window.
1

Open the Circular1 dataset.

From the File menu of the NCSS Data window, select Open Example Data.

Click on the file Circular1.NCSS.

Click Open.

Open the Circular Data window.

Using the Analysis menu or the Procedure Navigator, find and select the Circular Data Analysis
procedure.

On the menus, select File, then New Template. This will fill the procedure with the default template.

Specify the variables.

On the Circular Data window, select the Variables tab. (This is the default.)

Double-click in the Data Variables text box. This will bring up the variable selection window.

Select Wind from the list of variables and then click Ok. Wind will appear in the Data Variables box.

Double-click in the Grouping Variable text box. This will bring up the variable selection window.

Select Group from the list of variables and then click Ok. Group will appear in the Paired Variables
box.

Set Hypothesized Theta to 40.

Set Hypothesized Kappa to 2.

Run the procedure.

From the Run menu, select Run Procedure. Alternatively, just click the green Run button,

The following reports and charts will be displayed in the Output window.

Summary Statistics Section

Group
1
2

Sample
Size
(N)
10
10

Mean
Direction
(Theta)
41.5869
42.6725

Mean
Resultant
Length
(R bar)
0.9324
0.9599

Circular
Standard
Deviation
(v)
21.4299
16.3991

Circular
Variance
(V)
0.0676
0.0401

Circular
Dispersion
(Delta)
0.1449
0.0768

Von Mises
Concentration
(Kappa)
5.5452
9.1850

Group
This is the group (or variable) presented on this line.
Sample Size
This is the number of nonmissing values in this group.
Mean Direction
This is estimated mean direction, T1 .

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Circular Data Analysis

Mean Resultant Length

This is the estimated mean resultant length, R1 . It is a measure of data concentration. An R1 close to zero implies
low data concentration. An R1 close to one implies high data concentration.
Circular Variance
The circular variance, V, is a measure of variation in the data. Note that V = 1 R1 .
Circular Standard Deviation
The circular standard deviation is v =

2 ln( R1 ) . Note that it is not the square root of the circular variance.

Circular Dispersion
The circular dispersion, =

1 T2
, is another measure of variation.
2 R12

Von Mises Concentration

This is the estimated concentration parameter of the von Mises distribution, .

Mean Direction Section

Sample
Size
Group
(N)
1
10
2
10

Mean
Direction
(Theta)
41.5869
42.6725

Lower 95.0%
Confidence
Limit
of Theta
27.9417
32.7516

Upper 95.0%
Confidence
Limit
of Theta
55.2321
52.5934

Standard
Error of
Mean
Direction
6.8964
5.0365

This report provides the large sample confidence interval for the mean direction as described by Upton &
Fingleton (1989) page 220. Note that this interval does not require the assumption that the data come from the von
Mises distribution.

Variation Statistics Section

Group
1
2

Sample
Size
(N)
10
10

Circular
Variance
(V)
0.0676
0.0401

Circular
Standard
Deviation
(v)
21.4299
16.3991

Circular
Dispersion
(Delta)
0.1449
0.0768

Skewness
(s)
-0.0795
-4.8582

Kurtosis
(k)
-1.7244
5.4248

This report provides measures of data variation and dispersion which were defined in the Statistical Summary
Report. It also provides measures of the skewness and kurtosis of the data.
Skewness
This is a measure of the skewness (lack of symmetry about the mean) in the data. Symmetric, unimodal datasets
have a skewness value near zero.
Kurtosis
This is a measure of the kurtosis (peakedness) in the data. Von Mises datasets have a kurtosis near zero.

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Circular Data Analysis

Von Mises Distribution Estimation Section

Sample
Size
Group
(N)
1
10
2
10

Mean
Direction
(Theta)
41.5869
42.6725

Lower 95.0%
Confidence
Limit
of Theta
29.1135
33.2995

Upper 95.0%
Confidence
Limit
of Theta
54.0603
52.0455

Von Mises
Conc.
(Kappa)
5.5452
9.1850

Lower 95.0%
Confidence
Limit
of Kappa
2.3222
3.0227

Upper 95.0%
Confidence
Limit
of Kappa
8.4051
13.2191

This report provides estimates and confidence intervals of the parameters (mean direction and concentration) of
the von Mises distribution that best fits the data. Note that the von Mises distribution is a symmetric, unimodal
distribution. You should check the rose plot or circular histogram to determine if the data are symmetric.
The formulas used in the estimation and confidence intervals were given earlier in this chapter. They come from
Mardia & Jupp (2000).

Trigonometric Moments Section

Group
1
2

Mean
Cos(a)
0.6974
0.7057

N
10
10

Mean
Sin(a)
0.6189
0.6506

Mean
Cos(2a)
0.0903
0.1085

Mean
Sin(2a)
0.7426
0.8516

R bar
0.9324
0.9599

2R bar
0.7481
0.8585

Theta
41.5869
42.6725

2Theta
83.0670
82.7373

This report provides summary statistics that are used in other calculations.
Mean Cos(a)
This is C1 =

1 n
cos(ai ) .
n i =1

Mean Sin(a)

1 n
This is S1 =
sin(ai ) .
n i =1
Mean Cos(2a)
This is C2 =

1 n
cos(2ai ) .
n i =1

Mean Sin(2a)
This is S 2 =

1 n
sin(2ai ) .
n i =1

R bar
This is R1 =

1
n C12 + S12 .
n

2R bar
This is R2 =

1
n C22 + S22 .
n

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Circular Data Analysis

Theta, 2 Theta
This is calculated using the following formula with p set to 1 and then 2, respectively.

1 S p
tan
Cp

Sp

Tp = tan 1 +
Cp

S
tan 1 p + 2

Cp

C p > 0, S p > 0
Cp < 0
S p < 0, C p > 0

Multiple-Group Hypothesis Tests Section

Null
Hypothesis
(H0)
Equal Distributions
Equal Directions
Equal Concentrations

Test
Name
Uniform Scores Test
Watson-Williams F Test
Concentration Homogeneity Test

Test
Statistic
6.7392
0.0147
0.5717

Prob
Level
0.0344
0.9047
0.4496

Reject H0
at 0.05 Level
Yes
No
No

Notes:
These statistics test various hypotheses about the parameters of von Mises distributions.
They require that each group follow the von Mises distribution.
The Uniform Scores test requires samples of at least 10.
The Watson-Williams F-test assumes that all kappa's are equal and that their average is > 1.

This report provides tests for three hypotheses about the features of several von Mises datasets. That is, it
provides a test of whether the distributions are identical, whether the mean directions are identical, and whether
the concentrations are identical. These tests are documented in the Technical Details section of this chapter.

Two-Group Hypothesis Tests Section

First
Group
1

Second
Group
2

Equal Distributions
Test
Prob
Statistic
Level
6.7392
0.0344

Equal Directions
Test
Prob
Statistic
Level
0.0147 0.9047

Equal Concentrations
Test
Prob
Statistic
Level
0.5717
0.4496

Notes:
These statistics test various hypotheses about the parameters of von Mises distributions.
They require that each group follow the von Mises distribution.
Equal distributions tested by the Mardia-Watson-Wheeler uniform scores test. Requires all Ni > 10.
Equal directions tested by the Watson-Williams F test. Assumes Von Mises data with equal kappa's, all > 1.
Equal concentrations tested by concentration homogeneity test. Assumes Von Mises data.

This report provides the same three tests as the Multiple-Group Hypothesis Tests Section, taken two groups at a
time. It allows you to pinpoint where differences occur.

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Circular Data Analysis

Tests for a Specified Mean Direction Assuming Von Mises Data Test
Statistic & Prob Levels
Tests for a Specified Mean Direction Assuming Von Mises Data - Test Statistics - Wind

Group
1
2

Sample
Size
(N)
10
10

Actual
Mean
Direction
(Theta)
41.5869
42.6725

H0
Mean
Direction
(Theta0)
40.0000
40.0000

Score
Test
Z
Value
0.0409
0.1949

Likelihood
Ratio
CS
Value
0.0470
0.2266

Watson &
Williams
F
Value
0.0476
0.2341

Stephens
Test
Z
Value
0.0397
0.1917

Notes:
These procedures test whether the mean direction is equal to a specified value, when kappa (concentration) is unknown.
They assume that the data follow the von Mises distribution.
The Score Test requires a large sample size.
The Likelihood Ratio Test requires a sample size of at least 5.
The Watson & Williams Test requires a large value of kappa.
The Stephens Test requires kappa to be greater than 2.
Tests for a Specified Mean Direction Assuming Von Mises Data - Probability Levels - Wind

Group
1
2

Sample
Size
(N)
10
10

Actual
Mean
Direction
(Theta)
41.5869
42.6725

H0
Mean
Direction
(Theta0)
40.0000
40.0000

Score
Test
Prob
Level
0.8398
0.6589

Likelihood
Ratio
Prob
Level
0.8284
0.6340

Watson &
Williams
Prob
Level
0.8321
0.6400

Stephens
Test
Prob
Level
0.8422
0.6615

Notes:
This report gives the probability levels of the test statistics displayed in the previous report.
Although the probability levels of four tests are given, you should use only one of these.

This section reports the results of four tests of the hypothesis that the mean direction of a particular group is equal
to a specific value. These are two-sided tests. They were documented earlier in this chapter.
The first table gives the values of the test statistics. The second table gives the probability levels. The null
hypothesis is rejected when the probability level is less than 0.05 (or some other appropriate cutoff).

Tests for a Specified Concentration Assuming Von Mises Data

Group
1
2

Sample
Size
(N)
10
10

Actual
Concentration
(Kappa)
5.5452
9.1850

H0
Concentration
(Kappa0)
2.0000
2.0000

Chi-Square
Value
2.2756
1.3518

Prob
Level of
(H1:Kappa
< Kappa0)
0.0137
0.0019

Prob
Level of
(H1:Kappa
> Kappa0)
0.9863
0.9981

Notes:
These statistics test whether the kappa (concentration) parameter is equal to the specified value.
The tests require that the estimated kappa is > 2.

This section reports the results of two, one-sided tests of the hypothesis that the concentration parameter of each
group is equal to a specific value. They were documented earlier in this chapter.
The first probability level is for testing the null hypothesis that kappa is greater than or equal to kappa0. The
second probability level is for test the null hypothesis that kappa is less than or equal to kappa0.

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Circular Data Analysis

Uniform Distribution Goodness-of-Fit Tests

Group
1
2

Sample
Size
(N)
10
10

Rayleigh's
Test
Statistic
(S*)
20.2993
21.7499

Rayleigh's
Test
Prob
Level
0.0000
0.0000

Kuiper's
Test
Statistic
(V)
2.7145
2.8088

Kuiper's
Test
Prob
Level
0.0000
0.0000

Watson's
Test
Statistic
(U2)
0.5657
0.6788

Watson's
Test
Prob
Level
0.0001
0.0000

Notes:
The tests in this report assess the goodness-of-fit of the uniform distribution.
The Rayleigh test requires samples of at least 20.
The Kuiper and Watson tests require samples of at least 8.

This section reports the results of three goodness-of-fit tests for the uniform distribution. They were documented
earlier in this chapter.
These tests may be viewed as testing whether the data are distributed uniformly around the circle.

Von Mises Distribution Goodness-of-Fit Tests

Group
1
2

Sample
Size
(N)
10
10

Watson's
Test
Statistic
(U2)
0.0340
0.1282

Watson's
Test
Prob
Level
0.5000
0.0322

Cox's
Test
Statistic
(S)
0.4030
2.9309

Cox's
Test
Prob
Level
0.8175
0.2310

Notes:
The tests in this report assess the goodness-of-fit of the von Mises distribution.
Both tests require samples of at least 20.

This section reports the results of two goodness-of-fit tests for the von Mises distribution. They were documented
earlier in this chapter. Several hypothesis tests assume that the data follow a von Mises distribution. These tests
allow you to check the accuracy of this assumption.

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Circular Data Analysis

Rose Plots

These plots show the distribution of the data around the circle.

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Circular Data Analysis

Circular Histograms

The circular histograms are generated by setting the Interior Objects on Plot to Circular Histogram.

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