Mainstreet - Saskatoon Election Oct 12

SASKATOON SHOWDOWN
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM MST - OCTOBER 14, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 846 Saskatoon Residents by Smart IVR on October 12, 2016. A mixture of landlines and
cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 3.37%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on
the 2011 Canadian Census.
A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.
ATCHISON, MOORE TIED IN SASKATOON

October 14, 2016 (Montral, QC) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds Don Atchison and Kelley Moore
tied for rst in the race to be Saskatoons next mayor. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error
of +/- 3.37%, 19 times out of 20.
This race has had plenty of twists and turns said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet
Research. Don Atchison has rebounded to tie for rst, up 2% (within the margin of error) while this week
we see Charlie Clark slip (-4%) while the number of Undecided voters has ticked up slightly (+1%).
Meanwhile Kelley Moore is once again at 27% (-%) - good enough to tie Don Atchison for rst place, as
Devon Hein gains 1% to climb to 5%.
While on the surface it may not look like there has been much movement the fundamentals of the race
have changed signicantly. Following a successful debate hosted by the Saskatoon Star Phoenix, and
perhaps just as importantly - thanksgiving dinner, were seeing now the make-up of each candidates
support has changed and the prole of undecided voters have changed too.
Ultimately a large percentage of voters are either undecided or soft supporters of the candidates which
means there is still time for plenty of movement before Election Day. For Mr. Atchison this is probably his
best positioning of lately, though he will be in danger if Kelley Moore is able to grow her support further. Its
unclear what Mr. Atchisons ceiling would be. For Charlie Clark time is running out to reverse his recent slide
though the Liveable YXE forum will be broadcast on Shaw at a later date and there is still the CTV debate
still to come - both those opportunities represent a risk for Kelley Moore as well.
Interestingly the strength of support for Kelley Moore and Charlie Clark is now more or less the same, and
second ballot preferences still lean heavily towards each other. As the campaign heads into the home
stretch were still unsure of how this election will end, nished Valentin.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Montral: David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, Mainstreet Research
Call: 514-913-5524 or E-mail: david@mainstreetresearch.ca
A3
If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, who would you vote for if the following
candidates ran?
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
A4

today, which candidate would you vote for?
[DEMOGRAPHIC]
Don Atchison
Sample
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Male
Female
164
203
247
232
405
441
A5

[TRACKING, DECIDED ONLY]
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Someone Else
Henry DayDay
Devon Hein
Kelley Moore
Undecided
A6

[DECIDED ONLY]
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
A7

today, who would you vote for if the following
candidates ran? [BY LIKELY VOTERS]
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
A8
Do you consider yourself a strong supporter of

this candidate or is there a chance you will
change your mind before the election?
Hein
Strong Supporter
Might Change Mind
Not Sure
A9
Who would be your second choice for mayor?

[MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE ONLY]
Hein
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
A10
FAVOURABILITY RATINGS
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Familiar
Not Sure
A11
SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Saskatoon mayoral election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
If the election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
Do you consider yourself a strong supporter of this candidate or is there a chance you will change your
mind before the election? [Decided Voters Only]
Strong Supporter
Might Change Your Mind
Not Sure
Who would be your second choice? [Might Change Your Mind/Not Sure Voters Only]
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Don Atchison?
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Charlie Clark?
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kelley Moore?
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Devon Hein?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with (Candidate Name)
ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.
I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.
CONNECT WITH US:
WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca
TWITTER
@MainStResearch
FACEBOOK
fb.com/mainstresearch
2016 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

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SASKATOON SHOWDOWN

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM MST - OCTOBER 14, 2016

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

ATCHISON, MOORE TIED IN SASKATOON

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

Do you consider yourself a strong supporter of

Might Change Mind

Who would be your second choice for mayor?

CONNECT WITH US:

2016 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

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