Team Four

Brennan Leitch, Alex Cooke, Matthew Spencer

Steven Lo, Shannon McCulloch, Anne Colucci

SRA 211- Section 2

The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto Case Analysis

1) Analytical Techniques and Explanation of each

a. Chronologies and Timelines

Chronology:

1947: Creation of Pakistan

1979: Benazir Bhutto pushes out her father as prime minister

1986: Bhuttos family forced into exile

1988: After returning from exile to head the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Benazir

Bhutto led the party to victory.

1990: Based on corruption allegations and her failure to curb ethnic violence, Benazir

Bhutto was removed by the Pakistani president.

1993: Benazir Bhutto regains office.

1996: Murtaza Bhutto, Benazirs brother, was gunned down by police during his efforts

to control the PPP.

Bhutto flees the country as she is facing numerous corruption charges.

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2007: 16 October, Bhutto writes a letter to President Musharraf naming several people

who she believes should be investigated if she were to be assassinated.

On 18 October, the Pakistani president and Army Chief of Staff Musharraf signed

a corruption amnesty and Bhutto returned from exile.

Bhuttos political rival, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan as well.

18 October Suicide Bombers target the procession to the funeral of Mohammed

Ali Jinnah killing 179 people and injuring 600.

Bhutto calls for resignation of Musharraf and threatens to boycott 2008 elections.

Leaked Letter suggests that Bhutto attempted to conspire with India for political

gain in 1990.

27 December: Bhutto is assassinated.

Shortly after assassination, the Pakistani government intercepted

communications from the Pakistani Taliban leader, Baitullah Mehsud,

congratulating a friend by the name of Mullah on killing Bhutto. It has been

questioned whether or not the Pakistani government played a role in her

assassination and used this as a cover up.

8 January, Scotland Yard sends a team to investigate the the scene of the crime,

but under strict restrictions from President Musharraf.

2008: US CIA Director, General Michael Hayden, openly states he believes Baitullah

Mehsud, Pakistani Taliban leader, was behind the attack.

Aitezaz Shah is arrested and confesses that he was a part of the plan to

assassinate Bhutto. He states that two attackers, Akram and Bilal, were to be the

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 ones to kill her and should they fail he and two others were tasked with executing

the assassination.

Chronologies and timelines are effective at painting a picture so an analyst can

better visualize the series of events. Those events can then be better presented in a

briefing. There are other ways to organize information within a timeline such as maybe

putting the info into categories. The chronology should have the major events with

annotation if necessary and should not have gaps between the events without

explanation. In order to understand how a series of events escalated from point a to

point c there needs to be a point b to connect the dots. Bigger questions then needs to

be asked about the causes and effects of these events which will be brought up more in

part three of this analysis.

b. Mind Maps

The mind maps technique is essentially a method that shows a visual

representation of the topic of interest. It is composed of two parts, the first of which is

ideas related to such topic. Secondly, are the lines that connect the ideas together and

show the relationships between them along with a short description.

This technique is used to explain thoughts about a plan and refine them. It allows

the thinker(s) to sort out ideas and better understand principal concepts. Furthermore, it

allows them to see and describe the communication between complex ideas. Another

aspect of this technique is the brainstorming involved in order to see if all the questions

are answered and if there any elements that still need to be connected.

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 The value added by this technique is that it maps out the entire scope of an idea.

Complexity and understanding of the information presented can be generally

understood by a quick look. A visual structure of the idea creates a basic picture of the

structure of a complex problem. Though it can capture all the tiny details, generally it

just shows the overall picture of the structure of a system. With a broad perspective, a

clear understanding of what needs more focus is established. This technique is

especially helpful with groups because it allows them to create new ideas, clarify

concepts, identify relevant knowledge, and resolves difference of opinions.

Overall, this technique is great for showing the basic structure of an idea

because everything stems from the central idea and relations can be shown to see,

which aspects need more clarification or work done.

c. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses is used to provide an unbiased

methodology when evaluating multiple hypotheses for observed data. It is an extremely

important tool when trying to create a case for an event with little information. The first

step in this tool is to brainstorm all possible hypotheses, this will make your search more

exhaustive and allows different perspectives on the issue. This is the most important

step in eliminating biases as all hypotheses should be considered. To build off these the

analyst should then list all evidence and arguments for each hypothesis. This includes

noting assumptions for and against each claim as well. With a list of fully formed

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hypotheses, the analyst should then try to rule out as many as many theories as

possible with the evidence provided. It is encouraged that the analyst only use one

piece of evidence at a time against a hypothesis to avoid making large assumptions.

One of the final steps is to judge by consistency. The more consistent a hypothesis is,

the more likely it is to be true. Using this rule of thumb the least consistent theories

should be removed using the analysts final judgement.

2) Salient Characteristics of the Case

Tensions in Pakistan mainly lie between civilian leaders and the military or

between secular and fundamentalist Muslims. Benazir Bhutto was very involved with the

political scene. Along with hert being head of the secular Pakistan Peoples Party

(PPP), she was the first female prime minister of a Muslim country. However, her

political success and involvement did not come easy. Along with being exiled for her

history of corruption, Bhutto has a record of being dismissed from her political positions

on multiple occasions. This cycle gave Bhutto somewhat of a controversial reputation.

A lot of the blurred lines in this case come from Bhutto's relationship with her

biggest political competitor, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The tensions between the two

was probably a result of the political pressures on Pakistan. Because the country was in

such a fragile state with the possibility of a return to democracy creating tensions within

the country, Pakistani authorities would oftentimes advise Bhutto to take certain safety

measures. Time after time she would refuse and deny these suggested precautionary

measures that included anything from taking a helicopter or opting out of bulletproof

glass to not attending a rally.

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 At her return from exile, Bhutto was welcomed with a crowd of 200,000 loyal

supporters. During the small celebration for her return, there was a standard explosion

followed by a large blast. This suicide bombing prompted Bhutto to write a private letter

naming 4 men whom she thought were trying to kill her, all of which, in some way shape

or form, were involved with the government.

Her role as a woman in the position of Pakistani Prime Minister was also seen as

controversial. In Pakistan, women in important roles were seen as a curse to the

country. She was also accused of putting lives in danger by not listening to the

authorities safety recommendations. By ignoring certain safety concerns, Benazir was

seen as using her power in a way that does not consider the safety of her people.

Bhutto and her husband were accused of money-laundering and stealing money from

the treasury while in her position of prime minister.

While the quantity of threats multiplied, so did the security measures that the

authorities put on Bhutto. She was put on house arrest in concern for her safety. Her

reaction to this was extreme: threatening for her and her supporters to boycott the

elections. While under house arrest, Bhutto addressed the outside media numerous

times. The case went on to leak a letter that stated that Benazir suggested she was

conspiring with India for the sole purpose of her own political gains.

The bombings that occurred when she returned to Pakistan did not stop her from

abandoning public rallies. Even when authorities found a man carrying explosives near

one of her rallies, the controversial woman was not stopped. Rawalpindi, Bhuttos next

stop, was where her father was hanged and where Pakistans first prime minister was

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assassinated. Knowing the history that accompanies this place, she was concerned

about this trip. Bhutto rode into town in a bulletproof SUV and all was well. When she

was driving out in the same SUV, she lifted her head through the sunroof to recognize

her party supporters. She must have forgotten that anywhere outside of the SUV is not

bulletproof because as soon as she peeked her head out, she was shot 3 times.

Following the shots, a bomb went off. Authorities did not notice that there were two

suspicious men in close enough proximity to Bhutto to shoot: a man in sunglasses and

a man in a white scarf.

Reports came back with a lot of grey area and conflicting hypotheses. At first, it

was said that Bhutto was shot in the head then the bomb went off. Authorities went on

to say she was killed by bomb shrapnel and it was still argued that she died from

gunshot wounds. However, the final reports stated that Benazir Bhutto had died from

the impact when she hit her head during the bombing. It was difficult for anyone to find

any evidence to prove the case, either way. Immediately after the assassination, the

government washed away all evidence that was present at the scene of the crime. With

no evidence, even Scotland Yard, the metropolitan police service in London, could not

come to concrete conclusions about the case.

Both the US CIA director and the Interior Ministry agreed that communications

suggested a leader of the Pakistani taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, was behind the

assassination of Bhutto. When questioned about the assassination, Mehsud

immediately denied all accusations. Furthermore, Aitezaz Shah, the 15 year old boy

arrested for involvement in the assassination, reported that one of the other attackers

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killed Bhutto by detonating an explosive vest and shooting her. Shah confessed that he

and four others were ordered to kill Bhutto. It was a breath of fresh air to have this

temporary answer to the mystery of who killed Benazir Bhutto.

The best conclusion that Scotland Yard could come up with based on what little

evidence they could find at the crime scene was that one person was involved in the

attack and Bhutto had been killed by a fatal blow to the head because of the impact of

the bomb. Media showed the gunman directly behind the vehicle. How authorities

overlooked the suspicious look to the ground right before the assassination is still a

mystery.

3) Techniques Evaluation and Used Technique and Why

a. Chronologies and Timelines

Chronologies and timelines are key to understanding complex situations as they

unfolded. These techniques are able to break the event down into bullet points that

make understanding much easier. This is critical because understanding and being able

to dissect cases such as these is also the key to understanding them and hopefully

being able to stop more like them from occurring in the future. When pulling the case

apart, much is learned, such as background info, motives, those involved, planning and

lastly setting the plan into action. In this case Benazir Bhutto had been a prominent

politician who in some ways stirred the pot by her outspoken protest of President

Musharraf, sparking opposition from the President. This culminated with her

assassination in December 2007. This is not to say that the President ordered her

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assassination but it does portray certain peoples disagreement with her objectives. As a

result of her assassination opposing parties came together to fight the power of

President Pervez Musharraf. The timeline effectively shows the increasing tension

between Bhutto and President Musharraf that lead into her assassination.

b. Mind Maps

Mind maps help identify the main issue and then have possible causes linked to

that central idea. In this case, it would be who was behind the assassination of Benazir

Bhutto. This creates a structure that can be broken down into groupings and more

intricate detail. Once all aspects of the question have been identified and connected to

each other, the in-depth analysis can begin. This method allows the team to consider a

broader array of explanations of Benazir Bhuttos assassination and show possible

weak points in security or measures not taken. Furthermore, the labeling and grouping

of these ideas, give a general overview of what were the links and causes that

ultimately led up to Benazirs death. For example, possible suspects can be broken

down into political and personal enemies or a combination of the two. This would then

be broken down into more narrowly focused categories by listing the possible suspects.

Possible suspects can include people such as Baitullah Meshud under political as he

was the head of Pakistani Taliban. Another suspect that could have fallen under the

political category is Pervez Musharraf, former army chief of staff and president. The

suspect list goes on to include Ijaz Shah, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, Hamid Gul, and

Arbab Ghulam Rahim. Some family members could have fitted under personal. Thus,

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with the analysis of each suspect and their relationship with Benazir, this could help

identify who killed her. Though this is just one way to use a mind map, another method

could have been using security flaws or motives behind the assassination as the central

ideas and branching off of that.

Diagram 1. Mind Map of potential suspect of who killed Benazir Bhutto?

c. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

In the moments leading up to Benazir Bhuttos death, it was clear that it was a

mistake for her to show up to her speech, and that a very ruthless assassination attempt

had been set up just for her arrival. It is fairly easy to analyse this assassination attempt

itself in comparison to finding the culprit. At first glance, there is much missing to

confidently convict someone of planning the assassination of Bhutto, simply because

she was going against an entire establishment devoted to staying in power. The country

had many conspirators going against the democracy, and what Bhutto planned to put in

place. Pakistan is a country whose history is plagued by political uncertainty, and finding

the insurgents responsible for her death under these pretenses is a daunting task.

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 Using the Analysis of Competing Hypothesis we narrowed it down to the three

most likely groups that had interest in Benazirs elimination. Her enemies would have

been Islamic extremists, the government, and there is even the possibility of her family

members as well. These three groups could have been conspiring together, or it could

have been just one exclusively.

Starting with the family hypothesis, Benazirs sister Fatima had motive to kill her

because she personally believed Benazir was responsible for their brothers death.

Benazirs brother Murtaza was the founder of an organization called Al-Zulfiqar, a group

devoted to avenging his fathers execution. Murtazas father was Zulfikar Ali- once the

Prime Minister of Pakistan until he was executed following a military coup. Murtaza was

sent into exile after his fathers death and was held in Afghanistan, which at the time

was being controlled by a revolutionary communist government. This is where the

organization Al-Zulfiqar was born, as hundreds of Zulfikar followers had been exiled to

Afghanistan as well. This organization would soon be labeled as terrorists as their

methods for getting what they wanted quickly turned criminal.

4) Executive Summary

Benazir Bhutto was the 11th Prime Minister of Pakistan, and the leader of the centre-left

Pakistan Peoples Party. After being exiled from Pakistan following many accusations of

scandal and possible bribery, she made her return in the fall of 2007 to prepare for the

2008 election, despite being advised against this. When attempts were made on her life

in October of 2007, she was also advised to take more serious safety and security

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precautions. But ultimately, it was not enough, and while at a political rally just 2 months

after returning from exile, she was assassinated by a suicide-bomber, later identified as

fifteen year old Aitezaz Shah.

Analysis

Key Individuals

Benazir Bhutto was born on June 21, 1953, in Karachi, Pakistan, the daughter of

former premier Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. She became the leader of the PPP, and won the

election in 1988, becoming the first female prime minister of a Muslim nation. In 2007,

she returned to Pakistan after an extended exile, but, tragically, was killed in a

suicide-bombing attack.

Bhutto's father, Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was removed from office in a

1977 military coup led by the Chief of Army Staff, General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq. Zia

promised to hold elections within three months, but instead he charged Zulfikar with

conspiring to murder. Zulfikar's family opposed Zia's imposition of ultra-conservative

military dictatorship, despite the consequences to themselves drawn by their opposition.

Although the murder accusation remained "widely doubted by the public", and many

foreign leaders appealed it, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was condemned, then hanged in April of

1979 under the effective orders of Supreme Court of Pakistan.

In 1996, Murtaza Bhutto, Benazir's younger brother, was controversially and

publicly shot down in a police encounter in Karachi. Since 1989, Murtaza and Benazir

had a series of disagreements regarding the PPP's policies. Murtaza also developed

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serious disagreement with Benazir's husband, Zardari, and unsuccessfully attempted to

remove his influence in the government. On 20 September 1996, in a controversial

police encounter, Murtaza Bhutto was shot dead near his residence along with six other

party activists.

President and Army Chief of Staff Perez Musharraf was the one who granted

Bhutto permission to again return to Pakistan. He signed a corruption amnesty

unwillingly, under a lot of pressure from the US. This gave Bhutto the opportunity to

return, and was seen by some as a promise of power sharing with Sharif. Prime

Minister Nawaz Sharif, long time opponent of Bhutto and twice-deposed Prime Minister,

also returned to Pakistan in the fall of 2007. The two had a long history of opposition;

Sharif was much more conservative.

Aitezaz Shah was the fifteen-and-a-half-year-old teenager arrested for

involvement in the assassination of Bhutto, and confessed to said involvement, naming

four others attackers as well that were ordered to carry out these plans if the others

failed. Baitullah Mehsud was all questioned for the assassination, but denied all

accusations, though many experts still believe he was involved in some capacity.

Charges of Corruption & Exile

Benazir Bhutto greatly struggled to maintain control over power when she

became Prime Minister in 1988. Her government was dismissed in August of 1990 by

the then President, who accused her and her administration of corruption and

nepotism. Benazir went on to once again lead her party through the 1990 election,

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however failed to win a parliamentary majority. Later in 2012, Pakistan's Supreme Court

would rule that the 1990 election was rigged by the ISI in favor of the conservative IJI.

Bhutto successfully led her party to victory in the 1993 parliamentary elections

and once again became the prime minister of Pakistan. Her second term, though, was

marked with several controversies. These controversies included the assassination of

her brother, Murtaza, during a police encounter in Karachi. Her husband and cabinet

member, Asif Ali Zardari, was indicted for the murder, but he was later exonerated.

Even though her government survived an attempted coup d'tat in 1995, she

and her husband were accused of a bribery scandal around a deal with Dassault, once

again leading the President to dismiss her government. Her husband went on to serve

eight years in prison while she led her party to an unsuccessful re-election campaign

during the 1997 election.

In 1998, Benazir went into self-exile to her estate in Dubai, leading her party

mainly through some proxies. Her reputation was greatly damaged by more corruption

allegations; an investigative report in 1998 traced more than $100 million in offshore

assets to Benazir and her family.

On 19 October 2007, after being granted permission to return to Pakistan by the

President Perez Musharraf, Benazir came back. Benazir was assassinated later that

year in a similar attack while leaving a campaign event in Rawalpindi.

Assassination - How it happened...

Bhutto was killed by a suicide-bomber after an election campaign rally in

Rawalpindi on December 27, 2007. The assassin fired shots at the former Prime

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Minister when she stuck her head out of the sunroof of her car to wave to the crowd of

people, but then set off the bomb when the shots proved unsuccessful. The attack also

killed 28 others, and wounded at least another 100. The attacker struck quickly after

Bhutto addressed a rally of thousands of supporters in the city of Rawalpindi.

Original reports and speculation claimed that she died as a result of the bullets,

or from shrapnel from the explosion, but a spokesman for Pakistan's Interior Ministry

later said that what ultimately killed her was the force with which her head hit on part of

the cars sunroof. President Musharraf said that he had asked a team of investigators

from Britain's Scotland Yard to assist in the investigation into Bhutto's killing.

How could it have been prevented?

Bhutto was returning from a rally, her vehicle was surrounded by people. In the

crowd there was both a gunman as well as a suicide bomber. Since the vehicle was

surrounded by people and it could not travel at high speeds, this gave the opportunity

for both the gunman and suicide bomber to get close to the vehicle to start their attacks.

First the gunman moved through the crowd and got right next to the vehicle, raised his

weapon and fired multiple times. As this was happening, the suicide bomber closed

distance on Bhuttos vehicle. Upon the vehicle getting into the bombers blast radius, the

bomber detonated the explosives. The aftermath of the attack left Bhutto as well as well

as at least 22 others dead and many more wounded.

To prevent this attack, the situation must be dissected and then each

shortcoming addressed. First off, Bhuttos vehicle was surrounded by a crowd of

people. The authorities should have had the vehicle path blocked off from the public, so

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Bhutto could have gotten to her destination in a timely manner. If the path was blocked

off from the public, the assassins would not have gotten close enough to carry out their

attack. There should also have been a motorcade with multiple security vehicles

surrounding Bhuttos, and this could have blocked an attack taking place. With the

motorcade in place, it should have been traveling with enough speed that it would have

made it a difficult target to hit, since hitting a moving target is always harder to hit. More

security personnel in the crowd would have also possibly helped; with more security,

there would have been a higher chance of spotting assailants before they get into

position to carry out their attacks. Lastly, there should have been more focus on the

intelligence, and this would have made it possible to potentially stop the attack before it

took place.

5) Analytical Value

So why was the attack important? This case is very complex and has many

different factors. Factors in this case can be anything from how unstable Pakistan is to

the security operations that failed. In the case, it is stated that Benazir Bhutto was not

the most popular person in Pakistan to begin with. There were many rivals in the

Pakistani government who had a motive to have her killed. Bhutto knew this, she

published writing that stated who she thought would try have her assassinated as well

as gave information to the authorities. Purely stated, in the case of Benazir Bhuttos

assassination there was a fair share of human error and poor judgement calls. Still there

is much that can be learned from this case.

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 The Bhutto family had a large political history in Pakistan, however it is a history

plagued with violence. First her father, who was a former prime minister was taken out

of office in 1979 and executed, which sent her into exile. She returned in 1986 to lead

her fathers former party, The Pakistan Peoples Party. She won an election in 1988 but

was removed in 1990 only to regain power again in 1993. While in office, her brother

was murdered and once again removed in 1996, when she soon left the country.

When Bhutto decided to return in 2007, still being followed by controversy, this

mistake would soon prove to be fatal. She was warned to not return to Pakistan, but she

still did. In the time shortly after her return the controversy over her kept growing, and so

did her list of enemies. She survived a first assassination attempt but was not

discouraged. As Bhutto planned to run for office she was scheduled to hold a rally in

Rawalpindi, despite not being told to by security personnel due to safety issues. Her

second attempt she was not so lucky. After leaving a rally on the night of December 27

2007, she was leaving a rally in Rawalpindi when her vehicle was attacked by a

gunman as well as a suicide bomber. The gunman opened fire and fired three shots and

then within seconds, a suicide bomber blew themselves up next to her vehicle, she was

rushed to a hospital and later pronounced dead.

This case has a few critical points, the main ones being security for high profile

officials and terrorism. When it comes to security for high profile officials, it is no secret

that public officials need security, this need only increases when there is controversy

surrounding the officials. As stated in Cases in Intelligence Analysis as well with

photographic evidence, the gunman got close enough to use a handgun. Due to their

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size, handguns are close range weapons and have accuracy limitations. Cases in

Intelligence Analysis and photographic evidence also show the suicide bomber getting

very close to the vehicle, and then being able to cause massive damage to it as well as

the surrounding crowd. When looking at the photographs of the assassination, Bhuttos

vehicle was surrounded by a crowd, making it very hard for security to recognize threats

and be able to respond accordingly. Had security forces barricaded the vehicle path and

kept distance between the crowd and Bhuttos vehicle, it would have been harder for

both the gunman and the bomber to hit their target due to the range in between the

subjects. As well as a barricade, there could have been more security vehicles

surrounding Bhuttos vehicle and have the procession travel with a reasonable speed to

make Bhutto a fast moving target, thus much harder to hit.

Terrorism is a major issue in the modern world. Terrorism is defined by the US

government as premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against

noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents. This attack meets

that definition. The attack was premeditated, in being that there was a previous failed

assassination attempt, and then with the successful assassination, there were the two

assassins that acted together. The non-combatant target here was Bhutto, as well as

her supporters. The group that claimed responsibility was a cell of Al-Qaeda, even

though the assassins who were captured were tied to the Pakistani government. All of

these factors put together meet the government definition of terrorism. To counter

terrorism, one of the best ways of fighting terrorism is with good intelligence. Bhutto

herself provided intelligence, however it was not acted on. More money could also be

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spent to increase the size and strength of a nations intelligence services, with more

resources, agencies can do more to stop threats before they happen.

Sources

Cases in Intelligence Analysis by Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H Pherson

https://onnesha.wordpress.com/2008/01/02/benazir-bhutto-assassination-picture

s-of-some-moments-the-suspects/

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01434/Benazir_Bhutto_143461

7c.jpg\

http://rava.pk/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/27pakistan_slide08x-1.jpg

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/04/15/pakistan.bhutto.report/in

dex.html

http://www.benazirbhutto.com/assassinatination.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_vXFN3SViY

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