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w ji How to on Neural
C (t pj , o pj ) C (t pj , o pj ) net pj
w ji
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net pj w ji Network Forecasting
C (t pj , o pj ) without Maths!
pj =
net pj
C (t pj , o pj ) C (t pj , o pj ) o pj
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net pj o pj net pj
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CD-Start-Up Kit for
net pj
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Neural Network
pj = f j' (net pj )
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Forecasting
C (t pj , o pj ) net pk C (t pj , o pj )
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20+ software simulators
k k

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Position: Senior Consultant Nationality: German Born: 1971

Languages Work Experience Method Competency

German 2004 - Research Associate, Lancaster SAP APO

English University, United Kingdom SAP Curriculum PLM100,
2000-2004 Research & Teaching Assistant SCM200, SCM 220
University of Hamburg, Prof. Inventory Management
Education
Premar & Vo ; Various Forecasting methods
2004 Post Doc Researcher at Int. projects in industry & trade Inventory Management
Centre for Forecasting, 1996-2000 CEO RSG Software GmbH. Supply Chain Planning/ APS
Lancaster University, UK Management & IT-Consultant Warehouse logistics
for Retail & Wholesale Projects Distribution- / Supply logistics
2003 Research Fellow at the in Germany & UK & Hungary. Business Information Systems
George Mason Uni, USA
Key-Projects
Problem Competency
2003 Visiting Scientist at the Forecasting Methods in SAP APO-DP,
Stellenbosch Business bdf HAM, Sales Forecast Management & Demand Planning in Consumer
School, USB, South Africa. bdf Netherlands Goods Industry
Automatic Model Selection in APO-DP, Demand Planning in Retail &
2000-2004 Research & Teaching bdf HAM, Sales Forecast Management Wholesale
Assistant University of Sales Forecasts, AOLTimeWarner, GER
Hamburg, PhD-thesis on Forecasting for Customer Relationship Member of the IBF Institute of
Forecasting in Inventory Management, Gruner & Jahr AG, GER Business Forecasters
Management using ANN Implementing a Forecast Strategy & Member of the International Institute
Inventory Management in Vending of Forecasters IIF
1992-1997 University of Hamburg Supply Chain, Mayfair Services, UK Member of IEEE; GOR, GI, ORSA
MBA equiv. (Dipl.-Kfm.) in Inventory Management in Distributions-
Business Administration Center Logistics, Vendepac, UK Regular Presentations at ANN
conferences of IEEE, INNS, APNNA

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Citation Analysis by year
Forecast
title=(ne ural AND net* AND (forecast* OR pre dict* OR time-ser* OR
7 - time w /2 ser* OR timese r*) & title =(... )
Sales Forecast
Linear (Forecast)
5 9- and evaluated sales forecasting relate d point predictions
350 35
R2 = 0.9036
5 300 30
K > 7 ) @ 250 25
- 0 5 B- 0

[citations]
200 20

-- - 150 15
>;)0A)@ 100 10
9- 4 -
4 >7) ) 9- @ 50 5
5 4 H H >7) )@
0 0
6,

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
0 - 4 [year]

7
Number of Publications by
- # Business Forecasting Domain
4 4 44
4 5

; ; 52 32
46; 4
83 General Business
6 9 Marketing
51
. Finance
Production
Product Sales
77 4 21
Electrical Load
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Applied Forecasting Methods (all industries)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Averages 25%

Autoregressive Methods 7%

Decomposition 8% $ 4
> O @ J P

[Forecastinng Method]
Exponential Smoothing 24%

Trendextrapolation 35%

Econometric Models 23%

4
Neural Networks 9%
> O @ %8P
Regression 69%

Analogies 23%

Delphi 22%
H 4 4
PERT 6%
> O @ %9P
Surveys 49%

[number replies]

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1943 1959 1972 1986
Hebb Minsky/Papert Werbos White
1949 1969 1974 1988

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