SR-332

Issue 1, May 2001 Reliability Prediction Procedure for Electronic Equipment

Contents

Contents Telcordia SR-332-Documentation Information

Special Report Notice Of Disclaimer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.1 Purpose and Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.2 Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.3 Structure of the Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2. Reliability Predictions for Electronic Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.1 Purposes of Reliability Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.2 Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.3 Definition of a Failure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.4 Failure Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.5 Factors Affecting Failure Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.6 Choice of Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.7 Flow of Calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.8 Items Excluded from Failure Rate Calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.9 Instructions for Device Types/Technologies Not in Table 7-1 . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.10 Statistical Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.11 Automated Reliability Prediction Procedure (ARPP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3. Steady-State Failure Rate Prediction for Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.1 Black Box Technique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.2 Techniques Integrating Laboratory Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.2.1 When Laboratory Test Devices Had No Previous Burn-in . . . . . . . . . 32
3.2.2 When Laboratory Test Devices Had Previous Burn-in . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.3 Techniques Integrating Field Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.3.1 Total Operating Hours . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.3.2 Adjustment Factor (V) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.4 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.4.1 Example 1: Black Box Technique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.4.2 Example 2: Integrating Laboratory Test Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
3.4.2.1 Example 2a: No Burn-In of Laboratory Test Devices . . . . . . . . 36
3.4.2.2 Example 2b: Previous Burn-In of Laboratory Test Devices . . . . . 37
3.4.3 Example 3: Integrating Field Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3.4.3.1 Example 4a: Subject Device Is in Test Unit and Operated at Same
Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
3.4.3.2 Example 4b: Subject Device Is in Test Unit but Operated at Different
Temperatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
3.4.3.3 Example 4c: Subject Counterpart Device in Test Unit Is Similar but Not
Identical to Subject Device . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4. First-Year Multiplier Prediction for Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.1 First-Year Multiplier for Device with Limited or No Burn-In . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.2 First-Year Multiplier for Device with Extensive Burn-In . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.2.1 Equivalent Operating Time for Burn-in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.2.2 First-Year Multiplier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4.3 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

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Reliability Prediction Procedure for Electronic Equipment Issue 1, May 2001
Contents

4.3.1 Example 1: Limited or No Burn-In . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

4.3.2 Example 2: Extensive Burn-In . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
5. Failure Rate Prediction for Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
5.1 Unit Steady-State Failure Rate Using the Parts Count Method . . . . . . . . . 51
5.2 Integrating Laboratory Test Data on Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
5.2.1 When Laboratory Test Units Have No Previous Unit/Device Burn-In . . 51
5.2.2 When Laboratory Test Units Had Previous Burn-in . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
5.3 Integrating Field Data on Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.3.1 Total Operating Hours . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
5.3.2 Adjustment Factor (V) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
5.4 Unit First-Year Multiplier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
5.5 Sampling Method - Using Default Temperature and Stress Factors on a Sample of
Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
5.6 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
5.6.1 Example 1: Parts Count Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
5.6.2 Example 2: First-Year Multiplier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
5.6.3 Example 3: Integrating Laboratory Test Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
5.6.3.1 Example 3a: No Burn-In of Laboratory Test Units . . . . . . . . . . 58
5.6.3.2 Example 3b: Previous Burn-In of Laboratory Test Units . . . . . . 58
5.6.4 Example 4: Integrating Field Test Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
5.6.4.1 Example 4a: Subject Unit and Test Unit are Identical and Operated at
Same Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
5.6.4.2 Example 4b: Subject Unit and Test Unit are Identical but Operated at
Different Temperatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
5.6.4.3 Example 4c: Test Unit Is Similar but Not Identical to Subject Unit 510
6. System Reliability (Service Affecting Reliability Data) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
6.1 Serial System Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
6.1.1 Steady-State Failure Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
6.1.2 First-Year Multiplier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
6.2 Non-Serial Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
7. Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Appendix A: References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A1
Appendix B: Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B1

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SR-332
Issue 1, May 2001 Reliability Prediction Procedure for Electronic Equipment
List of Figures

List of Figures

Figure 2-1 Bathtub Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

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 SR-332
Reliability Prediction Procedure for Electronic Equipment Issue 1, May 2001
List of Figures

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SR-332
Issue 1, May 2001 Reliability Prediction Procedure for Electronic Equipment
List of Tables

List of Tables

Table 7-1 Device Failure Rates (Sheet 1 of 16) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

Table 7-2 Hybrid Microcircuit Failure Rate Determination (Sheet 1 of 2) . . 718
Table 7-3 Device Quality Level Description (Sheet 1 of 2) . . . . . . . . . . . 720
Table 7-4 Device Quality Factors (Q) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 722
Table 7-5 Guidelines for Determination of Stress Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . 723
Table 7-6 Stress Factors (pS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 724
Table 7-7 Temperature Factors T (Sheet 1 of 2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 725
Table 7-8 Environmental Conditions and Multiplying Factors (pE) . . . . . . 727
Table 7-9 First Year Multiplier (pFY) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 728
Table 7-10 Typical Failure Rates of Computer Related Systems or Subsystems
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 730
Table 7-11 Reliability Conversion Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 731
Table 7-12 Upper 95% Confidence Limit (U) for the Mean of a Poisson Distribution
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 732

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