alfa 0.

4
mega 0.1
gama 0.3
ao AO Mes t Dt At Tt
INICIAL Jan-12 -11
INICIAL Feb-12 -10
INICIAL Mar-12 -9
INICIAL Apr-12 -8
INICIAL May-12 -7
INICIAL Jun-12 -6
inicial
INICIAL Jul-12 -5
INICIAL Aug-12 -4
INICIAL Sep-12 -3
INICIAL Oct-12 -2
INICIAL Nov-12 -1
INICIAL Dec-12 0 96667 0.0
2013 Jan-13 1 84,000 96667 0.0
2013 Feb-13 2 80,000 96667 0.0
2013 Mar-13 3 79,000 96667 0.0
2013 Apr-13 4 75,000 96667 0.0
2013 May-13 5 76,000 96667 0.0
2013 Jun-13 6 109,000 96667 0.0
2013
2013 Jul-13 7 125,000 96667 0.0
2013 Aug-13 8 133,000 96667 0.0
2013 Sep-13 9 85,000 96667 0.0
2013 Oct-13 10 67,000 96667 0.0
2013 Nov-13 11 83,000 96667 0.0
2013 Dec-13 12 164,000 96667 0.0
2014 Jan-14 13 91,000 99467 280.0
2014 Feb-14 14 92,000 103315 636.8
2014 Mar-14 15 94,000 107038 945.4
2014 Apr-14 16 80,000 105456 692.8
2014 May-14 17 102,000 112756 1353.5
2014 Jun-14 18 151,000 123932 2335.7
2014
2014 Jul-14 19 163,000 129628 2671.7
2014 Aug-14 20 181,000 137246 3166.4
2014 Sep-14 21 108,000 132114 2336.5
2014 Oct-14 22 133,000 145737 3465.2
2014 Nov-14 23 89,000 130588 1603.7
2014 Dec-14 24 188,000 127582 1142.7
2015 Jan-15 25 106,000 124197 690.0
2015 Feb-15 26 77,000 111757 -623.0
2015 Mar-15 27 92,000 109991 -737.3
2015 Apr-15 28 111,000 119074 244.7
2015 May-15 29 104,000 120269 339.7
2015 Jun-15 30 127,000 116464 -74.8
2015
2015 Jul-15 31 206,000 140295 2315.9
2015 Aug-15 32 205,000 152143 3269.1
2015 Sep-15 33 112,000 144208 2148.6
2015 Oct-15 34 208,000 180849 5597.9
2015 Nov-15 35 91,000 157085 2661.7
2015 Dec-15 36 200,000 149745 1661.5
2016 Jan-16 37 111,000 140621 583.0
 2016 Feb-16 38 81,000 125510 -986.4
2016 Mar-16 39 83,000 114631 -1975.7
2016 Apr-16 40 86,000 109347 -2306.5
2016 May-16 41 107,000 113931 -1617.5
2016 Jun-16 42 161,000 125833 -265.6
2016
2016 Jul-16 43 196,000 137499 927.6
2016 Aug-16 44 201,000 146317 1716.6
2016 Sep-16 45 211,000 181397 5053.0
2016 Oct-16 46 151,000 175896 3997.7
2016 Nov-16 47 94,000 159639 1972.1
2016 Dec-16 48 208,000 155863 1397.4
2017 Jan-17 49
2017 Feb-17 50
2017 Mar-17 51
2017 Apr-17 52
2017 May-17 53
2017 Jun-17 54
2017
2017 Jul-17 55
2017 Aug-17 56
2017 Sep-17 57
2017 Oct-17 58
2017 Nov-17 59
2017 Dec-17 60
St Ft IEtI
-12,667
-16,667
-17,667
-21,667
-20,667
12,333
28,333
36,333
-11,667
-29,667
-13,667
67,333
-12,667
-16,667
-17,667
-21,667
-20,667
12,333
28,333
36,333
-11,667
-29,667 250000
-13,667
67,333
-11,407 84,000 7000
-15,061 83,080 8920 200000
-16,278 86,285 7715
-22,804 86,316 6316
-17,694 85,483 16517
16,754 126,443 24557 150000
29,845 154,602 8398
38,559 168,633 12367
-15,401 128,746 20746
-24,588 104,784 28216 100000
-22,043 135,536 46536
65,259 199,525 11525
-13,444 117,318 11318
-20,970 109,826 32826 50000
-16,792 94,856 2856
-18,385 86,451 24549
-17,266 101,625 2375
14,888 137,362 10362 0
40,603 146,234 59766 -20 -10 0
42,849 181,171 23829
-20,443 140,011 28011
-9,066 121,768 86232
-35,256 164,404 73404
60,758 225,006 25006
-18,297 137,962 26962
-28,032 120,234 39234
-21,244 107,732 24732
-19,873 94,271 8271
-14,165 89,775 17225
20,972 127,202 33798
45,972 166,170 29830
46,399 181,275 19725
-5,429 127,590 83410
-13,815 177,384 26384
-44,371 144,638 50638
58,171 222,369 14369
138,964
140,361
132,024
140,209
142,977
150,082
186,617
213,015
214,839
164,408
157,419
128,261
 pronostico holt-winter aditivo
250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
-10 0 10 20 30 40

Hi stori co Demanda Pronostico

111000
aditivo

30 40 50 60 70

Pronostico
 368353896.xlsx

Informe de Crystal: completo

08/10/2017 creado a las 17:18
Resumen:
Atributos de datos:
Nmero de serie 1
Los datos estn en meses

Prefs ejecucin:
Periodos en previsin 12
Introducir valores que faltan Activado
Ajustar valores atpicos Desactivado
Mtodos utilizados Mtodos estacionales
Tcnica de previsin Plazo ponderado 1
Medida de error MAPE

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 368353896.xlsx

Serie de Predictor

Serie: Serie 1
Resumen:
Mejor mtodo Multiplicativo de Holt-Winters
Medida de error (MAPE) 20.66%

Resultados de previsin:

Periodo Inferior: 2,5% Previsin Superior: 97,5%

Jan-17 57,500 131,642 205,784
Feb-17 25,252 117,900 210,549
Mar-17 39,840 126,262 212,684
Apr-17 34,839 127,172 219,505
May-17 40,145 135,845 231,545
Jun-17 95,226 189,136 283,045
Jul-17 132,529 226,988 321,448
Aug-17 133,624 232,963 332,302
Sep-17 60,140 156,018 251,895
Oct-17 45,371 138,741 232,112
Nov-17 --- 113,125 ---
Dec-17 --- 249,551 ---

Datos histricos:

Estadsticas Datos histricos

Media 124,188
Mximo 211,000
Desviacin estndar 46,326
Estacionalidad 12 (Deteccin automtica)

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 368353896.xlsx

Precisin de previsin:

Mtodo Rango MAPE

Multiplicativo de Holt-Winters Mejor 20.66%

Mtodo U de Theil Durbin-Watson

Multiplicativo de Holt-Winters 0.6823 1.75

Parmetros de mtodo:

Mtodo Parmetro Valor

Multiplicativo de Holt-Winters Alfa 0.4000
Beta 0.1000
Gamma 0.3000
* - Parmetro establecido manualmente

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368353896.xlsx

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 368353896.xlsx

*
*
*

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