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    Monte Carlo Simulation PDF

    Uploaded by

    Nugroho Cahyo
    Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical method used to approximate potential results based on probabilistic inputs. It involves running multiple simulations using distributions of input parameters in a model to create histograms depicting the results. Key aspects include defining input variable distributions like uniform and triangular, running simulations with random numbers assigned to variables, and constructing frequency distribution tables and charts from the output. The example task involves using 10,000 random numbers in a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate oil reserves based on distributions of area, thickness, and recovery, and reporting proved, probable, and possible reserves along with P10, P50, and P90 values.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Monte Carlo Simulation PDF

    Uploaded by

    Nugroho Cahyo
    194 views14 pages
    Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical method used to approximate potential results based on probabilistic inputs. It involves running multiple simulations using distributions of input parameters in a model to create histograms depicting the results. Key aspects include defining input variable distributions like uniform and triangular, running simulations with random numbers assigned to variables, and constructing frequency distribution tables and charts from the output. The example task involves using 10,000 random numbers in a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate oil reserves based on distributions of area, thickness, and recovery, and reporting proved, probable, and possible reserves along with P10, P50, and P90 values.

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    7. Monte carlo Simulation.pdf

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    Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical method used to approximate potential results based on probabilistic inputs. It involves running multiple simulations using distributions of input parameters in a model to create histograms depicting the results. Key aspects include defining input variable distributions like uniform and triangular, running simulations with random numbers assigned to variables, and constructing frequency distribution tables and charts from the output. The example task involves using 10,000 random numbers in a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate oil reserves based on distributions of area, thickness, and recovery, and reporting proved, probable, and possible reserves along with P10, P50, and P90 values.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    194 views14 pages

    Monte Carlo Simulation PDF

    Uploaded by

    Nugroho Cahyo
    Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical method used to approximate potential results based on probabilistic inputs. It involves running multiple simulations using distributions of input parameters in a model to create histograms depicting the results. Key aspects include defining input variable distributions like uniform and triangular, running simulations with random numbers assigned to variables, and constructing frequency distribution tables and charts from the output. The example task involves using 10,000 random numbers in a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate oil reserves based on distributions of area, thickness, and recovery, and reporting proved, probable, and possible reserves along with P10, P50, and P90 values.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 14

    Monte Carlo

    Simulation
    Definition
    Monte Carlo Simulation is a mathematical method
    used in risk analysis and probabilistic analysis
    Monte Carlo Simulations are used to approximate
    the distribution of potential results based on
    probabilistic inputs
    Monte carlo approach to
    volumetric
    Monte Carlo Analysis

    Monte Carlo simulation take multiple distributions of input


    parameters, put into the model and create histogram to
    depict the results of the analysis
    Monte Carlo output: probability vs. variable value
    Monte Carlo Analysis

    The model in the forms of mathematical equations


    with variables stated by frequency distribution
    (probability density function pdf) and cumulative
    distribution
    The frequency distribution of the variables in the
    model predicted based on limited data that will
    result a non continuous distribution curve, such as
    uniform distribution or triangular distribution
    Uniform Distribution

    Uniform distribution is a probability distribution with


    lower limit a, and upper limit b
    All intervals of the same length on the distribution's
    support are equally probable
    w(x) are distribution frequency, and W(x-xi) are cumulative frequency
    = random number

    b b
    Triangular Distribution

    Triangular distribution is a probability distribution


    with lower limit a, upper limit b and mode c, where a
    < b, and a c b.
    Monte Carlo Simulation

    Monte Carlo simulation is a repetitive calculation


    process to produce a number of output
    Input variable x is obtained based on distribution
    cumulative frequency (triangular and uniform) -
    W(x<xi)
    W(x<xi) searched by using random number
    Put the input variable x into the model make
    repetitive calculation
    Create histogram of the model to depict the results
    of the analysis
    Random Number

    One random number only assigned to one variable


    (example: RN1 assigned to variable Xa)
    Output model f{A,B,C} consist of set number of RN1,
    RN2 and RN3; etc...
    Constructing a Frequency Distribution
    Table

    Find the lowest and highest values of the variables


    Decide number of interval with rule of thumbs:
    S = 1 + 3.3 log (n)
    S = number of interval
    n = number of sample
    Decide on the width of the class intervals
    Count the number of results in each interval (frequency of
    class interval)
    Determine relative frequency and cumulative frequency
    Relative frequency = frequency number of observations
    Create histogram and plot the cumulative chart
    Example
    Model Iteration Frequency distribution table

    Distribution chart
    Task

    Gunakan 10000 bilangan random


    Luas (A): min: 8000, max: 14000 (Acres)
    Tabel (h): min: 15, most probable: 80, max: 120 (FT)
    Recovery (Rec): min: 20, most probable: 50, max: 80
    (B/Acre - FT)

    Buat distribusi cadangan dari data tersebut menggunakan


    simulasi monte carlo
    Berapakah nilai cadangan proved, probable dan possible?
    Berapakah nilai P10, P50, dan P90?

    . Jawaban dikirim via email sebelum 31 Mei 2017 ke


    dwi_atty@yahoo.com

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