ASSIGNMENT 4

SPRING SEMESTER 2017

ES 202 - ENGINEERING STATISTICS

1. An early-warning detection system for aircraft consists of four identical radar units
operating independently of one another. Suppose that each has a probability of
0.95 of detecting an intruding aircraft. When an intruding aircraft enters the scene,
the random variable of interest is X, the number of radar units that do not detect
the plane. Is this a binomial experiment? If yes, what are its parameters and their
values?

Answer: (a) Yes (b) n = 4, p = 0.05

2. As the items come out of a production process, they are inspected for defects. A
sample of 4 items is picked at random intervals. Calculate the expected number
of defective items in the sample if approximately 1% of the items produced are
defective.

Answer: E(X) = 0.04

3. It is known that screws produced by a certain company will be defective with prob-
ability 0.01, independently of each other. The company sells the screws in packages
of 10 and offers a money-back guarantee that at most 1 of the 10 screws is defective.
What proportion of packages sold must the company replace?

Answer: 0.4%

4. Let X be a geometric random variable with probability of success p. Prove that the
1
expected value of X is . What is variance of X?
p
1 1−p
Answer: E(X) = V ar(X) =
p p2
5. A purchaser of electrical components buys them in lots of size 10. It is his policy
to inspect 3 components randomly from a lot and to accept the lot only if all 3 are
nondefective. If 30 percent of the lots have 4 defective components and 70 percent
have only 1, what proportion of lots does the purchaser reject?

Answer: 46%

6. Two coins are to be flipped. The first coin will land on heads with probability 0.6,
the second with probability 0.7. Assume that the results of the flips are independent,
and let X equal the total number of heads that result.

(a) Find P r(X = 1).

(b) Determine E(X) and V ar(X).

Answer: (a) 0.46 (b) E(X) = 1.3; V ar(X) = 0.45

1
 7. A sample of 3 items is selected at random from a box containing 20 items of which
4 are defective. Find the expected number of defective items in the sample.
3
Answer: = 0.6
5
8. A ball is drawn from an urn containing 3 white and 3 black balls. After the ball is
drawn, it is replaced and another ball is drawn. This process goes on indefinitely.
What is the probability that, of the first 4 balls drawn, exactly 2 are white?
3
Answer: = 0.375
8
9. On a multiple-choice exam with 3 possible answers for each of the 5 questions, what
is the probability that a student will get 4 or more correct answers just by guessing?
11
Answer: = 0.0453
243
10. A satellite system consists of 10 components and functions on any given day if at
least 7 of the 10 components function on that day. On a rainy day each of the
components independently functions with probability 0.9, whereas on a dry day
this probability is 0.95. If the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.5, what is the prob-
ability that the satellite system will not function tomorrow?

Answer: 0.0069

11. Abox contains 5 red and 5 blue marbles. Two marbles are withdrawn randomly. If
they are the same color, then you win $2; if they are different colors, then you lose
$1.00. Calculate the expected value of the amount you win?
1
Answer: = 0.66
3
12. It is known that diskettes produced by a certain company will be defective with
probability 0.01, independently of each other. The company sells the diskettes in
packages of size 10 and offers a money-back guarantee that at most 1 of the 10
diskettes in the package will be defective. The guarantee is that the customer can
return the entire package of diskettes if he or she finds more than one defective
diskette in it. If someone buys 3 packages, what is the probability that he or she
will return exactly 1 of them?

Answer: 0.0127

13. When coin 1 is flipped, it lands on heads with probability 0.4; when coin 2 is flipped,
it lands on heads with probability 0.7. One of these coins is randomly chosen and
flipped 10 times.

(a) What is the probability that the coin lands on heads on exactly 7 of the 10
flips?
(b) Given that the first of these ten flips lands heads, what is the conditional
probability that exactly 7 of the 10 flips land on heads?

2
 Answer: (a) 0.1546 (b) 0.029

14. Suppose that a biased coin that lands on heads with probability p is flipped 10
times. Given that a total of 6 heads results, find the conditional probability that
the first 3 outcomes are

(a) HTT (meaning that the first flip results in heads, the second in tails, and the
third in tails);
(b) THT (meaning that the first flip results in tails, the second in heads, and the
third in tails).
1 1
Answer: (a) = 0.1 (b) = 0.1
10 10
15. The expected number of typographical errors on a page of a certain magazine is
0.2. What is the probability that the next page you read contains (a) 0 and (b) 2
or more typographical errors?

Answer: (a) e−0.2 = 0.8187 (b) 1 − 1.2e−0.2 = 0.0175

16. A certain typing agency employs 2 typists. The average number of errors per article
is 3 when typed by the first typist and 4.2 when typed by the second. If your article
is equally likely to be typed by either typist, approximate the probability that it
will have no errors.

1 −3
Answer: 2
e + 12 e−4.2 = 0.0324

17. Suppose that the average number of accidents occurring on a highway each day is
3.

(a) Find the probability that 3 or more accidents will occur today.
(b) Repeat part (a) under the assumption that at least 1 accident will occur today.

Answer: (a) 0.5768 (b) 0.6070

18. A fair coin is continually flipped until heads appears for the 10th time. Let X de-
note the number of tails that occur. Compute the probability mass function of X.
x+9 1 x+10



Answer: P r(X = x) = x 2
f or x = 0, 1, 2, · · · , ∞

19. If X is a geometric random variable, show that

P r(X = n + k|X > n) = P r(X = k).

20. The probabilities of having a rainy day, a cloudy day, and a sunny day are 0.1, 0.3,
and 0.6 respectively.

(a) Find the probability that out of next 10 days we have 6 sunny days and 3
cloudy days.
(b) An ice-cream shop earns on the average $1000 on a sunny day, $500 on a
cloudy day, and $100 on a rainy day. What is the average weekly income of
this shop?

3
 Answer: (a) 0.1058 (b) Average Income = $760/day or $5320/week

21. An industrial product is shipped in lots of 20. Testing to determine whether an

item is defective is costly, and hence the manufacturer samples his production rather
than using a 100% inspection plan. A sampling plan, constructed to minimize the
number of defectives shipped to customers, calls for sampling five items from each
lot and rejecting the lot if more than one defective is observed. (If the lot is re-
jected, each item in it is later tested.) If a lot contains four defectives, what is the
probability that it will be rejected?

Answer: 0.2487

22. Boeing 757s flying certain routes are configured to have 168 economy-class seats.
Experience has shown that only 90% of all ticket holders on those flights will actu-
ally show up in time to board the plane. Knowing that, suppose an airline sells 178
tickets for the 168 seats. What is the probability that not everyone who arrives at
the gate on time can be accommodated?

Answer: 0.0190

23. An examination is frequently regarded as being good (in the sense of determining
a valid grade spread for those taking it) if the test scores of those taking the ex-
amination can be approximated by a normal density function. (In other words, a
graph of the frequency of grade scores should have approximately the bell-shaped
form of the normal density.) The instructor often uses the test scores to estimate
the normal parameters µ and σ 2 and then assigns the letter grade A to those whose
test score is greater than µ + σ, B to those whose score is between µ and µ + σ, C to
those whose score is between µ − σ and µ, D to those whose score is between µ − 2σ
and µ − σ, and F to those getting a score below µ − 2σ. (This strategy is sometimes
referred to as grading “on the curve.”) Under this grading scheme, approximately
what percentage of students are granted grades A, B, C, D, and F respectively.

Answer: A = 0.1587 B = 0.3413 C = 0.3413 D = 0.1359 F = 0.0228

24. It is estimated that 80% of all eighteen-year old women have weights ranging from
103.5 to 144.5 lb. Assuming the weight distribution can be adequately modeled by
a normal curve and that 103.5 and 144.5 are equidistant from the average weight
µ, calculate σ.

Answer: σ = 17.0833

25. The ideal size of a first-year class at a particular college is 150 students. The col-
lege, knowing from past experience that, on the average, only 30 percent of those
accepted for admission will actually attend, uses a policy of approving the appli-
cations of 450 students. Compute the probability that more than 150 first-year
students attend this college.

Answer: 0.0554