CONTENTS

Appreciation
Aim
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part4
Part5
Further Exploration

Conclusion
Enclosure
Reference
 APPRECIATION
Assalamualaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh…

Alhamdulillah,thnks to Allah for giving me oppoitunity to breadth

and
live peacefully.I am very grateful as I can accomplish this Additional
Mathematics project between the time allocated.There are many
people who
involved in completing this project and I would like to thank all of
them.

Firstly,I would like to thank my Additional Mathematics teacher,

Pn Asha Azlina,for giving me the opportunity to complete this
project.She also helped me by giving her full attention in the problem
I faced and
helping me developing ideas.Next,I would like to appreciate my
parents
by giving them thousand of flower.Their passion and generousity in
sponsoring money and many things has helped me a lot in
completing this
project.I also would to thank all my friends in 5 Al-Tirmizi because
they are
willing tp cooperate with me in this project.Last but not least,to those
who are giving me the information and datas,I definitely could not
complete my project successfully.

That’s all from me and thanks again to all people who involved
in this project.

Wassalam…
 AIMS

The aims of carrying out this project work are to:

• To apply and adapt a variety of problem-solving

strategies to solve problem.

• To improve thinking skills.

• To promote effective mathematical

communication.

• To develop mathematics knowledge through

problem solving in a way that increases student’s
interest and confidence.

• To use the language of mathematics to express

mathematics ideas precisely.

• To provide learning environment that stimulates

and enhances effective learning.
 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of Additional Mathematics is to increase

student’s capabilities in Mathematics.With this
objective,project work is included in the subject to provide an
opportunity for student’s to apply the knowledge and skills
learnt in the classroom into real-life and challenging
situations.

Project work includes the exploration of mathematics

problem in the context of human activities that will in turn
activate that minds,making the learning of mathematics
meaningful and beautiful .With the introduction of project
work,it will encourage the usage of the computer and
graphing calculator .Consequently,it enables the students to
apply mathematical concepts and skills in problem solving.In
doing so,students are able to interpret the given situation
into mathematical model or vice versa which will futher
develop their communication skills effectively.Logical
reasoning is required in carrying out the project
work.Students are expected to define the problemposed and
use heuristic methods to state conjectures and test
validity.Problem-solving skills and strategies such as trial
and improvement,drawing diagrams,tabulating
data,identifying polars, experimenting and simulation can be
used in the project work.Students are encouraged to
estimate,predict and make intelligent guesses in the course
of obtaining solution.Finally, students are expectedto present
their results systematically in a written report.This will open
up their minds to accept mathematics as a powerful tool for
future studies and be in their future careers.

This year,the project given entitled“Probability”

Probability is a way to expressing knowledge or belief that
an event will occur or has occurred.In mathematics the
concept has given an exact meaning in probability theory,
that is used extensively in such areas of study as
mathematics, statistics , finance , gambling , science and
philosophy to draw conclusion about the likelihood of
potential events and the underlying mechanics of complex
systems.

In conclusion,this project has brought many advantages

for students.I believe, all students have done this project
successfully.
 Part 1
Theory of Probability
History of Probability
Probability has a dual aspect: on the one hand the probability or
likelihood of hypotheses given the evidence for them, and on the
other hand the behavior of stochastic processes such as the throwing
of dice or coins. The study of the former is historically older in, for
example, the law of evidence, while the mathematical treatment of
dice began with the work of Pascal and Fermat in the 1650s.
Probability is distinguished from statistics. While statistics deals with
data and inferences from it, (stochastic) probability deals with the
stochastic (random) processes which lie behind data or outcomes.

Some highlight in the history of probability are:

18th century: Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous, 1713)

and Abraham de Moivre's The Doctrine of Chances (1718) put
probability on a sound mathematical footing, showing how to
calculate a wide range of complex probabilities. Bernoulli proved a
version of the fundamental law of large numbers, which states that in
a large number of trials, the average of the outcomes is likely to be
very close to the expected value - for example, in 1000 throws of a
fair coin, it is likely that there are close to 500 heads (and the larger
the number of throws, the closer to half-and-half the proportion is
likely to be).
19th century: The power of probabilistic methods in dealing with
uncertainty was shown by Gauss's determination of the orbit
ofCeres from a few observations. The theory of errors used
the method of least squares to correct error-prone observations,
especially in astronomy, based on the assumption of a normal
distribution of errors to determine the most likely true value.
Towards the end of the nineteenth century, a major success of
explanation in terms of probabilities was theStatistical
mechanics of Ludwig Boltzmann and J. Willard Gibbs which
explained properties of gases such as temperature in terms of the
random motions of large numbers of particles.
The field of the history of probability itself was established by Isaac
Todhunter's monumental History of the Mathematical Theory of
Probability from the Time of Pascal to that of Lagrange (1865).

20th century: Probability and statistics became closely connected

through the work on hypothesis testing of R. A. Fisher andJerzy
Neyman, which is now widely applied in biological and psychological
experiments and in clinical trials of drugs. A hypothesis, for example
that a drug is usually effective, gives rise to a probability
distribution that would be observed if the hypothesis is true. If
observations approximately agree with the hypothesis, it is confirmed,
if not, the hypothesis is rejected.[5]
The theory of stochastic processes broadened into such areas
as Markov processes and Brownian motion, the random movement of
tiny particles suspended in a fluid. That provided a model for the
study of random fluctuations in stock markets,
Application of Probability in Daily life

Two major applications of probability theory in everyday life are

in risk assessment and in trade on commodity markets. Governments
typically apply probabilistic methods in environmental
regulation where it is called "pathway analysis", often measuring well-
being using methods that are stochastic in nature, and choosing
projects to undertake based on statistical analyses of their probable
effect on the population as a whole.
A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of any
widespread Middle East conflict on oil prices - which have ripple
effects in the economy as a whole. An assessment by a commodity
trader that a war is more likely vs. less likely sends prices up or down,
and signals other traders of that opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities
are not assessed independently nor necessarily very rationally. The
theory of behavioral finance emerged to describe the effect of
such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace and conflict.
It can reasonably be said that the discovery of rigorous
methods to assess and combine probability assessments has had a
profound effect on modern society. Accordingly, it may be of some
importance to most citizens to understand how odds and probability
assessments are made, and how they contribute to reputations and
to decisions, especially in a democracy.
Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life
is reliability. Many consumer products, such as automobiles and
consumer electronics, utilize reliability theory in the design of the
product in order to reduce the probability of failure. The probability of
failure may be closely associated with the product's warranty
Theorical Probabilities and Empirical Probabilities

Theorical Probabilities:

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned

with analysis of random phenomena.[1] The central objects of
probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes,
and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or
measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve
over time in an apparently random fashion. Although an individual
coin toss or the roll of a die is a random event, if repeated many times
the sequence of random events will exhibit certain statistical patterns,
which can be studied and predicted. Two representative
mathematical results describing such patterns are the law of large
numbers and the central limit theorem.
As a mathematical foundation for statistics, probability theory is
essential to many human activities that involve quantitative analysis
of large sets of data. Methods of probability theory also apply to
descriptions of complex systems given only partial knowledge of their
state, as instatistical mechanics. A great discovery of twentieth
century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena
at atomic scales, described in quantum mechanics.
Empirical Probabilities

Empirical probability, also known as relative frequency,

or experimental probability, is the ratio of the number favorable
outcomes to the total number of trials,[1][2] not in a sample space but in
an actual sequence of experiments. In a more general sense,
empirical probability estimates probabilities
from experience and observation.[3] The phrase a posteriori
probability has also been used as an alternative to empirical
probability or relative frequency.[4] This unusual usage of the phrase
is not directly related to Bayesian inference and not to be confused
with its equally occasional use to refer to posterior probability, which
is something else.
In statistical terms, the empirical probability is an estimate of a
probability. If modelling using a binomial distribution is appropriate, it
is themaximum likelihood estimate. It is the Bayesian estimate for the
same case if certain assumptions are made for the prior
distribution of the probability
An advantage of estimating probabilities using empirical probabilities
is that this procedure is relatively free of assumptions. For example,
consider estimating the probability among a population of men that
they satisfy two conditions: (i) that they are over 6 feet in height; (ii)
that they prefer strawberry jam to raspberry jam. A direct estimate
could be found by counting the number of men who satisfy both
conditions to give the empirical probability the combined condition. An
alternative estimate could be found by multiplying the proportion of
men who are over 6 feet in height with the proportion of men who
prefer strawberry jam to raspberry jam, but this estimate relies on the
assumption that the two conditions are statistically independent.
A disadvantage in using empirical probabilities arises in estimating
probabilities which are either very close to zero, or very close to one.
In these cases very large sample sizes would be needed in order to
estimate such probabilities to a good standard of relative accuracy.
Herestatistical models can help, depending on the context, and in
general one can hope that such models would provide improvements
in accuracy compared to empirical probabilities, provided that the
assumptions involved actually do hold. For example, consider
estimating the probability that the lowest of the daily-maximum
temperatures at a site in February in any one year is less zero
degrees Celsius. A record of such temperatures in past years could
be used to estimate this probability. A model-based alternative would
be to select of family ofprobability distributions and fit it to the dataset
contain past yearly values: the fitted distribution would provide an
alternative estimate of the required probability. This alternative
method can provide an estimate of the probability even if all values in
the record are greater than zero.

Difference between Empirical and Theoretical

Probabilities

Empirical probability is the probability a person calculates from

many different trials. For example someone can flip a coin 100 times
and then record how many times it came up headsand how many
times it came up tails. The number of recorded heads divided by 100
is the empirical probability that one gets heads.The theoretical
probability is the result that one should get if an infinite number of
trials were done. One would expect the probability of heads to be 0.5
and the probability of tails to be 0.5 for a fair coin.
 Part 2
a) There are three player,considered as P1, P2 and P3. The total
side of the die which is cube is six and the number of dots on the
dice is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 respectively.
Thus, the possible outcomes are:
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

b) By using table, the possible outcomes when two dice are tossed
can be listed.

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

The total possible outcomes from the tossing of the two dice

is 36, or n(S)=6X6=36, which are applied from the

multiplication rule.
 Part 3
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

Solution:

a)

A={ (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5)}
P(A)=??
A’={(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}
P(A’)=1/6
As P(A’)=P’(A)=1/6, thus P(A)=1-1/6
=5/6
B={},as the maximum product is 6X6=36. This event is
impossible to occur.
Thus,P(B)=0
Prime number(below six):2,3,5
Odd number(below six):1,3,5
C=PUQ
C={(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4),
(3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,3), (6,5)}
=23/36
D=P∩R
D={ (2,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)}
P(D) =5/36

Answers:

A={ (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5)}
P(A)= 5/6

B={}
P(B)=0

C={(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4),
(3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,3), (6,5)}
P(C)= 23/36

D={ (2,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)}

P(D) =5/36
 Part 4
a)
Sum of the two Frequency( )
numbers(x)
2 1 2 4
3 2 6 18
4 5 20 80
5 3 15 75
6 6 36 216
7 10 70 490
8 8 64 512
9 6 54 486
10 6 60 600
11 2 22 242
12 1 12 144
Total 50 361 2867

Solution:

From the table,

 i. Mean:

mean, =

ii. Variance:

variance,

Standard deviation:

standard deviation,

= 2.2829

b) The number of tosses is increased double, the mean will slightly

change, maybe will inducted by 2.

New mean,
c)

Sum of the two Frequency( )

numbers(x)
2 5 10 20
3 5 15 45
4 10 40 160
5 9 45 225
6 15 90 540
7 16 112 784
8 14 112 896
9 13 117 1053
10 6 60 600
11 5 55 605
12 2 24 288
Total 100 680 5216

Solution,

From the table,

Mean:

mean, =

Variance:

variance,

=5.92

Standard deviation:
 standard deviation,

= 2.4331

The prediction is wrong. The new mean is 6.8, which

0.42 lesser than the original mean.

Part 5
Sum of the dots on Possible outcomes Probability,p(x)
both turned up faces(x)
1 - 0
2 (1,1) 1/36
3 (1,2), (2,1) 1/18
4 (1,3), (2,2), (3,1) 1/12
5 (1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1) 1/9
6 (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), 5,1) 5/36
7 (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1) 1/6
8 (2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2) 5/36
9 (3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3) 1/9
10 (4,6), (5,5), (6,4) 1/12
11 (5,6), (6,5) 1/18
12 (6,6) 1/36
Total 36 1
a) i) Mean:

mean=

+12

=7

ii) Variance:

variance=

+144 ]-

=54.8333-49
 =5.8333

iii) Standard deviation:

standard deviation,

=2.4152

The mean, variance and the standard deviation of data in Part 4 and
Part 5 are totally different. Mean, variance, and standard
deviation of the data in Part 5 exceeds the mean, variance, and
standard deviation of the data in Part 4 by o.44, 0.0857, and
0.0179 respectively. The values are different because there are
two different method used to identify the mean, variance, and
standard deviation which are by conducting an experiment as
conducted in Part 4 and by using formulae in Part 5. In Part 4,
the values may varies as the result from the tossing of the dice
are always different. The probability to always get the same
number are very small, which is 1/36. Thus, it affect the values of
the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the data. The
method used in Part 4 to obtain these values also known as
Empirical Probabilities experiment.

Theoretical probabilities are used in identifying those data in

Part 5. The data are obtained from the formula and the data
will be constant as it is only theoretical.
 Conjecture: As the number of n increases, the mean will
become closer to the theoretical mean, which are 7.00.

Support and proof

From the part 4 experiment, it is obvious that when the number

of n increases, which are 100, the mean become closer to 7
than when the value of n 50.

Further Exploration
In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is
atheorem that describes the result of performing the same
experiment a large number of times. According to the law,
theaverage of the results obtained from a large number of trials
should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer
as more trials are performed.
For example, a single roll of a six-sided die produces one of the
numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, each with equal probability. Therefore, the
expected value of a single die roll is

According to the law of large numbers, if a large number of dice

are rolled, the average of their values (sometimes called
 the sample mean) is likely to be close to 3.5, with the accuracy
increasing as more dice are rolled.
Similarly, when a fair coin is flipped once, the expected value of
the number of heads is equal to one half. Therefore, according to
the law of large numbers, the proportion of heads in a large
number of coin flips should be roughly one half. In particular, the
proportion of heads after n flips will almost surely converge to one
half as n approaches infinity.

Though the proportion of heads (and tails) approaches

half, almost surely the absolute (nominal) difference in the
number of heads and tails will become large as the number of
flips becomes large. That is, the probability that the absolute
difference is a small number approaches zero as number of flips
becomes large. Also, almost surely the ratio of the absolute
difference to number of flips will approach zero. Intuitively,
expected absolute difference grows, but at a slower rate than the
number of flips, as the number of flips grows.
The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term
results for random events. For example, while a casino may lose
money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend
towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins.
Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the
parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the LLN
only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of
observations are considered. There is no principle that a small
number of observations will converge to the expected value or
that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the
others.
An illustration of the Law of Large Numbers using die rolls. As the
number of die rolls increases, the average of the values of all the rolls
approaches
 3.5.

Same goes to the project, as the tosses increases to 100 times,

the mean become nearer to 7, which the actual value of mean. If the
experiment is continue until 200 times of tossing, the mean will
become closer to 7.

Conclusion
Alhamdulillah, great upon Allah The Almighty wiyh His
blessings. I finally complete the Additional Matheematics Project
Work In the field duration of time.
 From the project work I can apply the knowledge and skills
learnt in classroom into real life and challenging situations. Besides,
the project is including the exploration of mathematics problem in
context of human activities with the introduction of this project.I will
stimulate my mind and making the learning process of mathematics
more meaningful.

Consequently, it enables me to apply the mathematics concept

and skill learning in problem solving. Besides, in this project, I had
learned some moral values that I practice. This project had taught me
to responsible on the works that are given to me to be complete. This
project also had make me felt more confidence to do works and not to
give easily when we could not find the solution for the question. I also
learned to be more discipline on time, which I was given about a
mouth to complete these project and pass up to my teacher just in
time. I also enjoy doing this project during my school holiday as I
spend my time with friends to complete this project and it had tighten
our friendship.

Enclosure

Be grateful to Allah because of the blessing I can manage to full

filling the Additional Mathematics task for form 5 year 2010. I feel
better after finished this project. Thanks a lot to my Additional
Matehematics teacher Pn. Asha Azlina Abd. Halim for help
encouragement and all the things which have been given.

Once again, I would like to thank to all my fellow friends in Form

5 and I will never forget about it. Besides, all yhe thanks and
memories will not fade to my parents, that always expect for my
success from me with flying colours in all things.

By the ends of this task, I really hope that I will get the best
result beside gaining the knowledge.

Reference

(a) Text book

-Additional Mathematics Form 5 (KBSM).

 -Reference Form5 Success Addittional
Mathematics.

(b) Internet

-www.MyHomeTuition.com.my
-www.scribd.com