Mobile lab story Page 1 of' 4

From : David Kelly

Just back from a trip abroad The article fits in with my thoughts

Best wishes,

David

---Original Message---=-
From:
Sent: O7June 2003 12 :48--
To:
Sub~ect : Mobile lab story

Doubtless you will have seen this, but in case not, I will paste below

I would be grateful for any additional insights you have and may try calling you later

Thanks much

June 7, 2003

Some Analysts of Iraq Trailers Reject Germ Use

By JUDITH MILLER and WILLIAM J BROAD

mertcan and British intelligence analysts with direct access to the evidence are disputing claims that the
mysterious
trailers found m Iraq were for making deadly germs In interviews over the last week, they said the mobile
units were
more likely intended for other purposes and charged that the evaluation process had been damaged by a rush
to judgment

"Everyone has wanted to find the 'smoking gun' so much that they may have wanted to have reached this
conclusion," said one
intelligence expert who has seen the trailers and, like some others, spoke on condition that he not be identified
He added, "I
am very upset with the process."

The Bush administration has said the two trailers, which allied forces found m Iraq m April and May, are
evidence that Saddam
Hussem was hiding a program for biological warfare In a white paper last week, it publicly detailed its case,
even while
conre lmg dts7repana~;, rn Lhe evidence and a lack of hard proof.

Now, intelligence analysts stationed in the Middle East, as well as m the United States and Britain, are
disclosing serious
doubts about the administration's conclusions m what appears to be a bitter debate within the intelligence
community Skeptics
said their initial judgments of a weapon application for the trailers had faltered as new evidence came to light

Bill Harlow, a spokesman for the Central Intelligence Agency, said the dissenters "are entitled to their opinion,
of course, but
we stand behind the assettions m the white paper "

COMI y-- / C tCI

In all, at least three teams of Western experts have now examined the trailers and evidence from them While
the first two
groups to see the trailers were largely convinced that the vehicles were intended for the purpose of making
germ agents, the
third group of more senior analysts divided sharply over the function of the trailers, with several members
expressing strong
skepticism, some of the dissenters said

In effect, early conclusions by agents on the ground that the trailers were indeed mobile units to produce
germs for weapons
have since been challenged_

"I have no great confidence that it's a fermenter," a senior analyst with long experience m unconventional arms
said of a tank for
multiplying seed germs into lethal swarms The government's public report, he added, "was a rushed job and
looks political "
This analyst had not seen the trailers himself, but reviewed evidence from them

The skeptical experts said the mobile lRants lacked gear for steam sterilization, normally a prerequisite for any
kind of
biological production, peaceful or otherwise Its lack of availability between production runs would threaten to
let in germ
contaminants . resulting m failed weapons

Second, if this shortcoming were somehow circumvented, each unit would still produce only a relatively small
amount of
germ-laden liquid, which would have to undergo further processing at some other factory unit to make it
concentrated and
prepare it for use as a weapon

Finally, they said, the traders have no easy way for technicians to remove germ fluids from the processing
tank

Senior intelligence officials in Washington rebutted the skeptics, saying, for instance, that the Iraqis rmght
have obtained the
needed steam for sterilization from a separate supply ti uck

The skeptics noted further that the mobile plants had a means of easily extracting gas Iraqi scientists have said
the trailers were
used to produce hydrogen for weather balloons While the white paper dismisses that as a cover story, some
analysts see the
Iraqi explanation as potenttally credible-

A senior administration official conceded that "some analysts give the hydrogen claim more credence " But he
asserted that the
majority still linked the Iraqi trailers to germ weapons

The depth of dissent is hard to gauge Even if it turns out to be a minority view, which seems likely, the
skepticism is significant
given the image of consensus that Washington has projected and the political reliance the administration has
come to place on
the mobile units At the recent summit meeting with President Vladimrr V Putm of Russia, President Bush
cited the trailers as
evidence of illegal Eraqr arms

Critics seem likely to cite the internal dispute as further reason for an independent evaluation of the Iraqi
trailers Since the
war's end, the White House has come under heavy political pressure because American soldiers have found no
unconventional
arms, a main rationale for the invasion of Iraq

Prime Minister Tony Blau' of Britain, who also used Iraqi illicit weapons as a chiefjustification of the war, has
been repeatedly
attacked on this question m Parliament and outside it

cc k--~ I (-- I c)) 02

Experts described the debate as intense despite the American intelligence agencies' release last week of the
nuanced, carefully
qualified white paper concluding that the mobile units were most likely part of Iraq's biowarfare program It
was posted May
28 on the Internet at www cra.gov

"We are m full agreement on it," an official said of the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense
Intelligence Agency at a
briefing on the white paper

The six-page report, "Iraqi Mobile Biological Warfare Agent Production Plants," called discovery of the
trailers "the strongest
evidence to date that Iraq was hiding a brologtcal warfare program "

A senior administration official said the White House had not put pressure on the intelligence community in
any way on the
content of its white paper, or on the tinting of its release.

In interviews, the intelligence analysts9,itsputnng its conclusions focused on the lack of steam sterilization gear
for the central
processing tank, which the white paper calls a fermenter for germ multiplication

In theory, the dissenting analysts added. the Iraqis could have sterilized the tank with harsh chemicals rather
than steam. But
they said that would require a heavy wash afterward with sterile water to remove any chemical residue - a feat
judged difficult
for a mobile unit presumably situated somewhere in the Iraqi desert

William C. Patrick III. a senior official m the germ warfare program that Washington renounced m 1969, said
the lack of steam
sterilization had caused him to question the germ-plant theory that he had once tentatively endorsed "That's a
huge mtnus," he
said- "I don't see how you can clean those tanks chemically "

Three senior intelligence officials m Washington, responding to the criticisms during a group interview on
Tuesday, said the
Iraqis could have used a separate mobile unit to supply steam to the trailer Some Iraqi decontamination units,
they said, have
such steam generators .

The officials also said some types of chemical sterilization were feasible without drastic follow-up actions

Finally, they proposed that the Iraqis might have engineered anthrax or other killer germs for immunity to
antibiotics, and then -
riddled germ food m the trailers with such potent drugs That, they said, would be a clever way to grow lethal
bacteria and
selectively decontaminate the equipment at the same time - though the officials conceded that they had no
evidence the Iraqis
had used such advanced techniques

On the second issue. the officials disputed the claim that the mobile units could make only small amounts of
germ-laden liquids
If the trailers brewed up germs in high concentrations, they said, every month one truck could make enough
raw material to fill
five R-400 bombs

Finally, the officials countered the claim that the trailers had no easy way for technicians to dram germ
concoctions from the
processing tank The fluids could go down a pipe at its bottom . they said While the pipe is small m diameter -
too small to
work effectively, some analysts hold - the officials said high pressure from an air compressor on the trailer
could force the tank
to dram in 10 or 20 minutes.

A senior official said "we've considered these objections" and dismissed them as having no bearing on the

C-c" I(+ I G 1C,~

overall conclusions
of the white paper He added that Iraq, which declared several classes of mobile vehicles to the United
Nations, never said
anything about hydrogen factories

Some doubters noted that the intelligence community was still scrambling to analyze the trailers, suggesting
that the white paper
may have been premature. They said laboratories m the Middle East and the United States were now analyzing
more than 100
samples from the tradets to verify the intelligence findings Allied forces, they noted, have so far failed to find
any of the
envisioned support vehicles that the trailers would need to produce biological weapons

One skeptic questioned the practicality of some of the conjectural steps the Iraqis are envisioned as having
taken to adapt the
trailers to the job of making deadly germs

"It's not built and designed as a standard fermenter," he said of the central tank "Certainly, if you modify it
enough you could
use it But that's true of any tin can "

The reporting for this article was carried out by Judith Miller m Iraq and Kuwait and by William Broad m
New York
Her agreement with the Pentagon, for an "embedded" assignment, allowed the military to review her copy to
prevent
breaches of troop protection and security No changes were made in the review

2910812003 CG M '(~ t '