Toll Road Industry - Key Success Factors: Business Risk Assessment Economy of Service Area

PEFINDO Rating Criteria & Methodology
Toll Road Industry - Key Success Factors

BUSINESS RISK ASSESSMENT
Economy of Service Area

The analysis covers the evaluations of the economic activities and potential in the areas served by the toll
road in order to better know the demand potential and sustainability. The analysis will also cover
observations on the quality and traffic volumes at the ordinary roads as the alternative roads. As the
concession is given by the government, it is very rare that a toll road operator competes directly to each
the other. Therefore, PEFINDO gives a credit to toll road operator that gets a toll concession with high
traffic potential. Toll roads are generally built to connect two or more cities or sub-urban areas and many
times are integrated with other strategic destination points such as harbor, airport, housing complexes and
etc to create traffic volumes. Therefore, other demographic factors such as numbers of population within
the areas of the toll, number of housing within the areas, number of alternative roads, economic condition,
business strengths in the cities surrounded by the toll, and etc. are also diligently reviewed during the
assessments to see the potential traffic growth.
Quality of Service
The analysis covers the examinations on the quality of toll road in an effort to generate more traffic
volumes. Poor quality of toll road could cause driving inconveniences or even make high accident rate, both
of which could lead to high maintenance costs and decrease in traffic volumes. The assessment on the
adequacy and conveniences of rest areas will also be included in the rating consideration, as those factors
are considered important to attract users of the toll. Reputation of the contractor that constructed the toll
road, number of bad accidents, safety of the roads and other company's efforts to enhance its quality of
toll road services are also reviewed during the rating assessments.
Cost and Operating Management

The analysis covers the assessments on the company's operating management in order to achieve the most
efficient costs, as none of toll operator has a control on the setting of toll tariffs. In Indonesia, tariffs for
toll roads are fully determined by the government. The management of the company's investment cost,
including construction, land acquisition and financing cost are also reviewed, as it will affect the magnitude
of depreciation cost as well as overall costs that has to be borne by the company for the entire life of the
toll operation. Although it often depends on the complexity of the toll, comparing construction cost per km
of toll road is always helpful to measure the efficiency. The analysis on operating margins (EBIT and
EBITDA) is also assessed by comparing the company’s ratios with other players in the same industry or
other industry with similar characteristic, which is important in analyzing the company’s competitiveness.
The analysis is helpful to measure operating efficiency. . If the toll road is already in operation, maintenance
cost will be the main cash cost for the toll road operator. Maintenance cost will always be related to the
quality of toll construction and the company's commitment on the quality of service.
Toll and Business Portfolio

The analysis covers the detailed reviews on the company's toll portfolio. A company with a larger toll
portfolio and varieties of demand characteristics is perceived to have more stable revenue stream as
compared to those that are dependent only on one toll road or on a number of toll roads with similar
characteristics. A company with toll roads located in many cities is expected to be able to minimize the
impact from any business deterioration due to economic slowdown in a certain city. During the crisis, it has
been shown that despite the currently-strong traffic volume, inner-city toll roads have been more sensitive
to political and economic fluctuation compared to inter-city ones. Although it is still insignificant, few toll
road operators have diversified their revenues to other related businesses such as advertisement, space
rental (rest area), management fee, and etc. The company's abilities and efforts to diversify its revenue
stream to other related businesses are also incorporated during the rating assessments.
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FINANCIAL RISK ASSESSMENT
Financial Policy
The analysis includes a review of management's philosophy, strategy and policies toward financial risk
(historical, current and future). It also includes examination of management's financial targets (growth,
leverage, debt structure and dividend policy), hedging and other policies in an effort to reduce the
company's overall financial risk (historical vs. future). The company's track record on fulfilling its previous
financial obligations is also examined to determine the degree of its commitments and willingness and
consistency to pay obligations on a timely basis.
Capital Structure
The analysis covers careful examination of the company's historical, current and projected leverage (total
and net debt in relation to equity and EBITDA), debt structures and composition (rupiah vs. foreign
currencies, short-term debt vs. long-term debt, fixed rate vs. floating rate). Management of its liabilities is
also thoroughly reviewed.
Cash Flow Protection and Liquidity

The analysis covers thorough reviews of the company's cash flow generation and capability to meet its
short-term and long-term financial obligations. The degree of its debt-servicing capability level is measured
by the company's interest and debt coverage ratio. The degree of its liquidity in fulfilling its short-term
liabilities relative to its sources of cash is also thoroughly assessed. The sources of cash are assessed, which
include cash balance, estimated cash from operations, unused credit facilities, and other sources of cash.
The uses of cash other than short-term liabilities, such as capital expenditure, are also assessed.
Financial Flexibility
The analysis covers combined evaluations of all the financial measures above to arrive at an overall view
of the company's financial health. Analysis of other related factors or figures that are not specifically
examined above, such as insurance coverage, restrictive covenants in loan/bond agreements or parental
linkage and support, are also covered. Other analytical tasks covered are the evaluation of the company's
options under stress, including contingency plans and other capabilities and flexibility to deal with various
adverse scenarios. Shareholder support and commitment are also greatly considered.

DISCLAIMER
PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (PEFINDO) does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the contents
of this report or publication. PEFINDO cannot be held liable for its use, its partial use, or its lack of use, in combination with other
products or used solely, nor can it be held responsible for the result of its use or lack of its use in any investment or other kind of
financial decision making on which this report or publication is based. In no event shall PEFINDO be held liable for any direct, indirect,
incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses including but
not limited to lost profits and opportunity costs in connection with any use of the contents of this report or publication. Credit analyses,
including ratings, and statements in this report or publication are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not
statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold or sell any securities or to make any investment decision. The contents
cannot be a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of its users, its management employees and/or clients in making
investment or other business decisions. PEFINDO also assumes no obligation to update the content following publication in any form.
PEFINDO does not act as fiduciary or an investment advisor. While PEFINDO has obtained information from sources it believes to be
reliable, PEFINDO does not perform an audit and does not undertake due diligence or independent verification of any information
used as the basis of and presented in this report or publication. PEFINDO keeps the activities of its analytical units separate from its
business units to preserve independence and objectivity of its analytical processes and products. As a result, certain units of PEFINDO
may have information that is not available to other units. PEFINDO has established policies and procedures to maintain the
confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. PEFINDO may receive
compensation for its ratings and other analytical work, normally from issuers of securities. PEFINDO reserves the right to disseminate
its opinions and analyses. PEFINDO’s public ratings and analyses are made available on its website, http://www.pefindo.com (free of
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Toll Road Industry - Key Success Factors: Business Risk Assessment Economy of Service Area

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PEFINDO Rating Criteria & Methodology

Toll Road Industry - Key Success Factors

Economy of Service Area

Cost and Operating Management

Toll and Business Portfolio

http://www.pefindo.com 1/3 April 06, 2018

FINANCIAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Cash Flow Protection and Liquidity

http://www.pefindo.com 2/3 April 06, 2018

http://www.pefindo.com 3/3 April 06, 2018

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