MGT 205- Introduction to

Statistics
Lecture 5
Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Part II: Probability Distributions for Continuous
Random Variables

İstanbul Şehir University

Gökçen Arkalı Olcay
Fall 2016-2017

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 Content
1. Probability Distributions for Continuous
Random Variables
2. The Normal Distribution
3. Descriptive Methods for Assessing
Normality
4. Approximating a Binomial Distribution with
a Normal Distribution
5. Uniform and Exponential Distributions

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 Probability Distributions for
Continuous Random Variables

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 Continuous Probability Density
Function
The graphical form of the probability distribution for a
continuous random variable x is a smooth curve

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 Continuous Probability Density
Function

This curve, a function of x, is denoted by the symbol f(x)

and is variously called a probability density function
(pdf), a frequency function, or a probability
distribution.
The areas under a probability
distribution correspond to
probabilities for x. The area A
beneath the curve between two
points a and b is the probability
that x assumes a value between a and b.
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Continuous Probability Distributions

Uniform Probability Distribution

Normal Probability Distribution
Exponential Probability Distribution f (x) Exponential

Uniform
f (x)

f (x)
Normal
x

x
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 The Normal Distribution

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 Importance of Normal Distribution

1. Describes many random processes or

continuous phenomena
2. Can be used to approximate discrete
probability distributions
• Example: binomial
3. Basis for classical statistical inference

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 Normal Distribution- Applications
It has been used in a wide variety of applications:
Heights
Scientific Measurements
of people
measurements

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 Normal Distribution- Applications
Test
scores
Amounts
of rainfall

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 Normal Distribution

1. ‘Bell-shaped’ & f(x )

symmetrical
2. Mean, median,
mode are equal
x

Mean
Median
Mode

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 Probability Density Function
æ 1 ö æ x- m ö
2

1 -ç ÷ ç
è 2 ø è s ÷ø
f (x) = e
s 2p
where
µ = Mean of the normal random variable x
 = Standard deviation
π = 3.1415 . . .
e = 2.71828 . . .
P(x < a) is obtained from a table of normal
probabilities

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 Effect of Varying Parameters ( & )

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 Normal Distribution
Probability
Probability is
d
area under P(c £ x £ d) = ò f (x)dx ?
curve! c

f(x )

x
c d
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 Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a normal
distribution with µ = 0 and  = 1. A random variable
with a standard normal distribution, denoted by the
symbol z, is called a standard normal random variable.

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 The Standard Normal Table:
P(0 < z < 1.96)
Standardized Normal
Probability Table (Portion)
Z .04 .05 .06 =1
1.8 .4671 .4678 .4686
.4750
1.9 .4738 .4744 .4750
2.0 .4793 .4798 .4803
= 0 1.96 z
2.1 .4838 .4842 .4846
Probabilities
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 The Standard Normal Table:
P(–1.26  z  1.26)

Standardized Normal Distribution

=1

.3962 .3962 P(–1.26 ≤ z ≤ 1.26)

= .3962 + .3962
= .7924
–1.261.26 z
=0

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 The Standard Normal Table:
P(z > 1.26)
Standardized Normal Distribution
=1

.5000
P(z > 1.26)
.3962 = .5000 – .3962
= .1038
1.26 z
=0

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 The Standard Normal Table:
P(–2.78  z  –2.00)

Standardized Normal Distribution

=1
.4973 P(–2.78 ≤ z ≤ –2.00)
= .4973 – .4772
.4772
= .0201
–2.78 –2.00 z
=0
Shaded area exaggerated

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 The Standard Normal Table:
P(z > –2.13)

Standardized Normal Distribution

=1
.4834 .5000 P(z > –2.13)
= .4834 + .5000
= .9834
–2.13 z
=0
Shaded area exaggerated

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 Non-standard Normal
Distribution
Normal distributions differ by Each distribution would
mean & standard deviation. require its own table.

f(x)

x That’s an infinite
number of tables!

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 Property of Normal Distribution

If x is a normal random variable with mean μ and

standard deviation , then the random variable z,
defined by the formula
x- µ
z=
s

has a standard normal distribution. The value z describes

the number of standard deviations between x and µ.

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 Standardize the
Normal Distribution

Normal Standardized Normal

Distribution Distribution
 =1

 x = 0 z
One table!
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 Finding a Probability Corresponding to a
Normal Random Variable
1. Sketch normal distribution, indicate mean, and shade
the area corresponding to the probability you want.
2. Convert the boundaries of the shaded area from x
values to standard normal random variable z
x- µ
z=
s
Show the z values under corresponding x values.
3. Use Table IV in Appendix A to find the areas
corresponding to the z values. Use symmetry when
necessary.
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 Non-standard Normal μ = 5, σ = 10: P(5 < x < 6.2)

x- m 6.2 - 5
z= = = .12
Normal s 10 Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution

 = 10 =1
.0478

= 5 6.2 x = 0 .12 z

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 Non-standard Normal μ = 5, σ = 10:
P(3.8  x  5)

3.8 - 5
z= = -0.12
Normal 10 Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution

 = 10 =1
.0478

3.8  = 5 x -.12  = 0 z
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 Non-standard Normal μ = 5, σ = 10:
P(2.9  x  7.1)

Normal Standardized Normal

Distribution Distribution
 = 10 =1
.1664

.0832 .0832

2.9 5 7.1 x -.21 0 .21 z

Shaded area exaggerated
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 Non-standard Normal μ = 5, σ = 10: P(x  8)

Normal Standardized Normal

Distribution Distribution
 = 10 =1
.5000
.3821
.1179

=5 8 x =0 .30 z

Shaded area exaggerated
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 Non-standard Normal μ = 5, σ = 10:
P(7.1  X  8)
x- m 7.1 - 5 x- m 8-5
z= = = .21 z= = = .30
s 10 s 10
Normal Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution
 = 10 =1

.1179
.0347
.0832

=5 7.1 8 x =0 .21 .30 z

Shaded area exaggerated
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 Example 1- Finding the Probability of a
Normal Random Variable
You work in Quality Control for
GE. Light bulb life has a normal
distribution with  = 2000 hours
and  = 200 hours. What’s the
probability that a bulb will last
A. between 2000 and 2400
hours?
B. less than 1470 hours?

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 Example 2- Using the Normal
Table in Reverse

Find the value of z, call it z0, in the standard normal

distribution that will be exceeded only 10% of the
time- that is, find z0 such that P(z≥z0)=0.10.

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 Example 3- Using the Normal Table in
Reverse

Find the value of z0 such that 95% of the

standard normal z values lie between –z0 and
z0, that is P(-z0 ≤ z ≤ z0)=0.95.

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 Example 4- Using the Normal Table in Reverse
(Paint Manufacturing Application)
Suppose a paint manufacturer has a daily production ,
x, that is normally distributed with a mean of 100,000
gallons and a standard deviation of 10,000 gallons.
Management wants to create an incentive bonus for
the production crew when the daily production
exceeds the 90th percentile of the distribution, in
hopes that the crew will, in turn, become more
productive. At what level of production should
management pay the incentive bonus?

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 Normal Probability Distribution

68.26% of values of a normal random variable

are within +/- 1 standard deviation of its mean.

95.44% of values of a normal random variable

are within +/- 2 standard deviations of its mean.

99.74% of values of a normal random variable

are within +/- 3 standard deviations of its mean.

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 Normal Probability Distribution
99.72%
95.44%
68.26%

x
  + 3
 – 3  – 1  + 1
 – 2  + 2
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