Climate changes reflect variations within the Earth's atmosphere, processes in other parts

of the Earth such as oceans and ice caps, and the effects of human activity. The external
factors that can shape climate are often called climate forcings and include such
processes as variations in solar radiation, the Earth's orbit, and greenhouse gas
concentrations.

Variations within the Earth's climate

Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, and is a chaotic non-linear dynamical
system. On the other hand, climate — the average state of weather — is fairly stable and
predictable. Climate includes the average temperature, amount of precipitation, days of
sunlight, and other variables that might be measured at any given site. However, there are
also changes within the Earth's environment that can affect the climate.

Glaciation

Percentage of advancing glaciers in the Alps in the last 80 years

Glaciers are recognized as being among the most sensitive indicators of climate change,
advancing substantially during climate cooling (e.g., the Little Ice Age) and retreating
during climate warming on moderate time scales. Glaciers grow and collapse, both
contributing to natural variability and greatly amplifying externally forced changes. For
the last century, however, glaciers have been unable to regenerate enough ice during the
winters to make up for the ice lost during the summer months (see glacier retreat).
The most significant climate processes of the last several million years are the glacial and
interglacial cycles of the present ice age.[citation needed] Though shaped by orbital
variations, the internal responses involving continental ice sheets and 130 m sea-level
change certainly played a key role in deciding what climate response would be observed
in most regions. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard–Oeschger events
and the Younger Dryas show the potential for glacial variations to influence climate even
in the absence of specific orbital changes.
Ocean variability

A s c h e ma tic o fmo d e rn th e rmo h a lin e c irc u la tio n

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation

On the scale of decades, climate changes can also result from interaction of the
atmosphere and oceans. Many climate fluctuations — including not only the El Niño
Southern oscillation (the best known) but also the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North
Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation — owe their existence at least in part to
different ways that heat can be stored in the oceans and move between different
reservoirs. On longer time scales ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a
key role in redistributing heat, and can dramatically affect climate.

The memory of climate

More generally, most forms of internal variability in the climate system can be
recognized as a form of hysteresis, meaning that the current state of climate reflects not
only the inputs, but also the history of how it got there. For example, a decade of dry
conditions may cause lakes to shrink, plains to dry up and deserts to expand. In turn,
these conditions may lead to less rainfall in the following years. In short, climate change
can be a self-perpetuating process because different aspects of the environment respond
at different rates and in different ways to the fluctuations that inevitably occur.[citation
needed]

Non-climate factors driving climate change

Effects of CO2 on climate change

Main article: Greenhouse gas
 Carbon dioxide variations during the last 500 million years
Current studies indicate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is the primary cause of
global warming. Greenhouse gases are also important in understanding Earth's climate
history. According to these studies, the greenhouse effect, which is the warming produced
as greenhouse gases trap heat, plays a key role in regulating Earth's temperature.
Over the last 600 million years, carbon dioxide concentrations have varied from perhaps
>5000 ppm to less than 200 ppm, due primarily to the effect of geological processes and
biological innovations. It has been argued by Veizer et al., 1999, that variations in
greenhouse gas concentrations over tens of millions of years have not been well
correlated to climate change, with plate tectonics perhaps playing a more dominant role.
More recently Royer et al.[1] have used the CO2-climate correlation to derive a value for
the climate sensitivity. There are several examples of rapid changes in the concentrations
of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere that do appear to correlate to strong
warming, including the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum, the Permian–Triassic
extinction event, and the end of the Varangian snowball earth event.
During the modern era, the naturally rising carbon dioxide levels are implicated as the
primary cause of global warming since 1950. According to the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2005 was 379
ppm³ compared to the pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm³. Thermodynamics and Le
Chatelier's principle explain the characteristics of the dynamic equilibrium of a gas in
solution such as the vast amount of CO2 held in solution in the world's oceans moving
into and returning from the atmosphere. These principles can be observed as bubbles
which rise in a pot of water heated on a stove, or in a glass of cold beer allowed to sit at
room temperature; gases dissolved in liquids are released under certain circumstances.

Plate tectonics
On the longest time scales, plate tectonics will reposition continents, shape oceans, build
and tear down mountains and generally serve to define the stage upon which climate
exists. More recently, plate motions have been implicated in the intensification of the
present ice age when, approximately 3 million years ago, the North and South American
plates collided to form the Isthmus of Panama and shut off direct mixing between the
Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Solar variation
Main article: Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of
sunspots and beryllium isotopes.
The sun is the ultimate source of essentially all heat in the climate system. The energy
output of the sun, which is converted to heat at the Earth's surface, is an integral part of
shaping the Earth's climate. On the longest time scales, the sun itself is getting brighter
with higher energy output; as it continues its main sequence, this slow change or
evolution affects the Earth's atmosphere. It is thought that, early in Earth's history, the sun
was too cold to support liquid water at the Earth's surface, leading to what is known as
the Faint young sun paradox.[citation needed].
On more modern time scales, there are also a variety of forms of solar variation,
including the 11-year solar cycle and longer-term modulations. However, the 11-year
sunspot cycle does not manifest itself clearly in the climatological data. Solar intensity
variations are considered to have been influential in triggering the Little Ice Age, and for
some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's energy
output is not yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow change that is happening
within the sun as it ages and evolves.[citation needed].

Orbital variations
In their effect on climate, orbital variations are in some sense an extension of solar
variability, because slight variations in the Earth's orbit lead to changes in the distribution
and abundance of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. Such orbital variations, known as
Milankovitch cycles, are a highly predictable consequence of basic physics due to the
mutual interactions of the Earth, its moon, and the other planets. These variations are
considered the driving factors underlying the glacial and interglacial cycles of the present
ice age. Subtler variations are also present, such as the repeated advance and retreat of the
Sahara desert in response to orbital precession.

Volcanism
A single eruption of the kind that occurs several times per century can affect climate,
causing cooling for a period of a few years. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo
in 1991 affected climate substantially. Huge eruptions, known as large igneous provinces,
occur only a few times every hundred million years, but can reshape climate for millions
of years and cause mass extinctions. Initially, scientists thought that the dust emitted into
the atmosphere from large volcanic eruptions was responsible for the cooling by partially
blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface. However,
measurements indicate that most of the dust thrown in the atmosphere returns to the
Earth's surface within six months.
Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time
periods, they release carbon dioxide from the earth's interior, counteracting the uptake by
sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. However, this contribution
is insignificant compared to the current anthropogenic emissions. The US Geological
Survey estimates that human activities generate more than 130 times the amount of
carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.[2]

Attribution of recent climate change

Human influences on climate change

Anthropogenic factors are human activities that change the environment and influence
climate. In some cases the chain of causality is direct and unambiguous (e.g., by the
effects of irrigation on temperature and humidity), while in others it is less clear. Various
hypotheses for human-induced climate change have been debated for many years.
The biggest factor of present concern is the increase in CO2 levels due to emissions from
fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere), which
exert a cooling effect, and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone
depletion, animal agriculture[3] and deforestation, also affect climate.
Fossil fuels

Carbon dioxide variations over the last 400,000 years, showing a rise since the
industrial revolution.
Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 1850s and accelerating ever since, the
human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO2 levels from a concentration of ~280
ppm to more than 380 ppm today. These increases are projected to reach more than 560
ppm before the end of the 21st century. It is known that carbon dioxide levels are
substantially higher now than at any time in the last 750,000 years.[4] Along with rising
methane levels, these changes are anticipated to cause an increase of 1.4–5.6 °C between
1990 and 2100 (see global warming).

Aerosols
Anthropogenic aerosols, particularly sulphate aerosols from fossil fuel combustion, exert
a cooling influence[5]. This, together with natural variability, is believed to account for
the relative "plateau" in the graph of 20th-century temperatures in the middle of the
century.

Cement manufacture
Cement manufacturing is the third largest cause of man-made carbon dioxide emissions.
Carbon dioxide is produced when calcium carbonate (CaCO3) is heated to produce the
cement ingredient calcium oxide (CaO, also called quicklime). While fossil fuel
combustion and deforestation each produce significantly more carbon dioxide (CO2),
cement-making is responsible for approximately 2.5% of total worldwide emissions from
industrial sources (energy plus manufacturing sectors).[6]

Land use
Prior to widespread fossil fuel use, humanity's largest effect on local climate is likely to
have resulted from land use. Irrigation, deforestation, and agriculture fundamentally
change the environment. For example, they change the amount of water going into and
out of a given location. They also may change the local albedo by influencing the ground
cover and altering the amount of sunlight that is absorbed. For example, there is evidence
to suggest that the climate of Greece and other Mediterranean countries was permanently
changed by widespread deforestation between 700 BC and 1 AD (the wood being used
for shipbuilding, construction and fuel), with the result that the modern climate in the
region is significantly hotter and drier, and the species of trees that were used for
shipbuilding in the ancient world can no longer be found in the area.
A controversial hypothesis by William Ruddiman called the early anthropocene
hypothesis[7] suggests that the rise of agriculture and the accompanying deforestation led
to the increases in carbon dioxide and methane during the period 5000–8000 years ago.
These increases, which reversed previous declines, may have been responsible for
delaying the onset of the next glacial period, according to Ruddimann's overdue-
glaciation hypothesis.
In modern times, a 2007 Jet Propulsion Laboratory study [8] found that the average
temperature of California has risen about 2 degrees over the past 50 years, with a much
higher increase in urban areas. The change was attributed mostly to extensive human
development of the landscape.

Livestock
According to a 2006 United Nations report, Livestock's Long Shadow, livestock is
responsible for 18% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2
equivalents. This however includes land usage change, meaning deforestation in order to
create grazing land. In the Amazon Rainforest, 70% of deforestation is to make way for
grazing land, so this is the major factor in the 2006 UN FAO report, which was the first
agricultural report to include land usage change into the radiative forcing of livestock. In
addition to CO2 emissions, livestock produces 65% of human-induced nitrous oxide
(which has 296 times the global warming potential of CO2) and 37% of human-induced
methane (which has 23 times the global warming potential of CO2).[3]

Interplay of factors
If a certain forcing (for example, solar variation) acts to change the climate, then there
may be mechanisms that act to amplify or reduce the effects. These are called positive
and negative feedbacks. As far as is known, the climate system is generally stable with
respect to these feedbacks: positive feedbacks do not "run away". Part of the reason for
this is the existence of a powerful negative feedback between temperature and emitted
radiation: radiation increases as the fourth power of absolute temperature.
However, a number of important positive feedbacks do exist. The glacial and interglacial
cycles of the present ice age provide an important example. It is believed that orbital
variations provide the timing for the growth and retreat of ice sheets. However, the ice
sheets themselves reflect sunlight back into space and hence promote cooling and their
own growth, known as the ice-albedo feedback. Further, falling sea levels and expanding
ice decrease plant growth and indirectly lead to declines in carbon dioxide and methane.
This leads to further cooling. Conversely, rising temperatures caused, for example, by
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to decreased snow and ice cover,
revealing darker ground underneath, and consequently result in more absorption of
sunlight. [9]
Water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide can also act as significant positive feedbacks,
their levels rising in response to a warming trend, thereby accelerating that trend. Water
vapor acts strictly as a feedback (excepting small amounts in the stratosphere), unlike the
other major greenhouse gases, which can also act as forcings.
More complex feedbacks include heat movement from the equatorial regions to the
northern latitudes and involve the possibility of altered water currents with in the oceans
or air currents with in the atmosphere. A significant concern is that melting glacial ice
from Greenland may interfere and change the thermohaline circulation of water in the
North Atlantic, affecting the Gulf Stream which brings warmer water to replace sinking
colder water; which would change the distribution of heat to Europe and the east coast of
the United States.
Other potential feedbacks are not well understood and may either inhibit or promote
warming. For example, it is unclear whether rising temperatures promote or inhibit
vegetative growth, which could in turn draw down either more or less carbon dioxide.
Similarly, increasing temperatures may lead to either more or less cloud cover.[10] Since
on balance cloud cover has a strong cooling effect, any change to the abundance of
clouds also affects climate.[11]

Monitoring the current status of climate

Testing for spatial dependence between independently measured values in an ordered set
is based on applying Fisher’s F-test to the variance of a set and the first variance term of
the ordered set. Charting statistically significant variance terms gives a sampling
variogram that shows where spatial dependence in our sample space of time dissipates
into randomness. The lag of a sampling variogram is a statistically robust measure for a
change in a climate statistic.
Scientists use "Indicator time series" that represent the many aspects of climate and
ecosystem status. The time history provides a historical context. Current status of the
climate is also monitored with climate indices.[12][13][14][15]

Evidence for climatic change

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to
reconstruct past climates. Most of the evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred
from changes in indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, dendrochronology, ice
cores[16], sea level change, and glacial retreat.

Pollen analysis
Palynology is the science that studies contemporary and fossil palynomorphs, including
pollen. Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species, which
vary under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with
distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed
of a very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in
different sedimentation levels in lakes, bogs or river deltas indicate changes in plant
communities; which are dependent on climate conditions[17][18].

Beetles
Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of
beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Knowledge of the present
climatic range of the different species, and of the age of the sediments in which remains
are found, allows past climatic conditions to be inferred.[19]

Glacial geology
Advancing glaciers leave behind moraines and other features that often have datable
material in them, recording the time when a glacier advanced and deposited a feature.
Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be identified
by the presence of datable soil or volcanic tephra horizons. Glaciers are considered one of
the most sensitive climate indicators by the IPCC, and their recent observed variations
provide a global signal of climate change. See Retreat of glaciers since 1850.

Examples of climate change

Climate change has continued throughout the entire history of Earth. The field of
paleoclimatology has provided information of climate change in the ancient past,
supplementing modern observations of climate.
Climate of the deep past
·0 Faint young sun paradox
·1 Snowball earth
·2 Oxygen Catastrophe
Climate of the last 500 million years
·3 Phanerozoic overview
·4 Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
·5 Cretaceous Thermal Maximum
·6 Permo–Carboniferous Glaciation
·7 Ice ages
Climate of recent glaciations
·8 Dansgaard–Oeschger event
·9 Younger Dryas
·10 Ice age temperatures
Recent climate
·11 Holocene Climatic Optimum
 ·12 Medieval Warm Period
·13 Little Ice Age
·14 Year Without a Summer
·15 Temperature record of the past 1000 years
·16 Global warming
·17 Hardiness Zone Migration

Climate change and biodiversity

The life cycles of many wild plants and animals are closely linked to the passing of the
seasons; climatic changes can lead to interdependent pairs of species (e.g. a wild flower
and its pollinating insect) losing synchronization, if, for example, one has a cycle
dependent on day length and the other on temperature or precipitation. In principle, at
least, this could lead to extinctions or changes in the distribution and abundance of
species. One phenomenon is the movement of species northwards in Europe. A recent
study by Butterfly Conservation in the UK[20], has shown that relatively common
species with a southerly distribution have moved north, whilst scarce upland species have
become rarer and lost territory towards the south. This picture has been mirrored across
several invertebrate groups. Drier summers could lead to more periods of drought[21],
potentially affecting many species of animal and plant. For example, in the UK during the
drought year of 2006 significant numbers of trees died or showed dieback on light sandy
soils. In Australia, since the early 90s, tens of thousands of flying foxes (Pteropus) have
died as a direct result of extreme heat[22]. Wetter, milder winters might affect temperate
mammals or insects by preventing them hibernating or entering torpor during periods
when food is scarce. One predicted change is the ascendancy of 'weedy' or opportunistic
species at the expense of scarcer species with narrower or more specialized ecological
requirements. One example could be the expanses of bluebell seen in many woodlands in
the UK. These have an early growing and flowering season before competing weeds can
develop and the tree canopy closes. Milder winters can allow weeds to overwinter as
adult plants or germinate sooner, whilst trees leaf earlier, reducing the length of the
window for bluebells to complete their life cycle. Organisations such as Wildlife Trust,
World Wide Fund for Nature, Birdlife International and the Audubon Society are actively
monitoring and research the effects of climate change on biodiversity and advance
policies in areas such as landscape scale conservation to promote adaptation to climate
change