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MonteCarloSimulationS TM*

Version 1.1
Copyright 1996-2001 Barringer & Associates, Inc.,
All rights reserved, * Trademark is pending

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other spreadsheets in this file, is
acceptance of notices shown below. Press This Button For
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settings. Contents

Software By:
H. Paul Barringer, P.E.
Barringer & Associates, Inc.
P.O. Box 3985
Humble, TX 77347-3985 USA
Phone: 281-852-6810 FAX: 281-852-3749
e-mail: hpaul@barringer1.com Website: http://www.barringer1.com

MonteCarloSimulationSTM
(Read this information from the lawyers)

Read this narrative (double click inside this box, cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block). Do not
delete this sheet, you'll need some of this information at a later date!

This spreadsheet file is usable with ExcelTM version 5.0 and above. The simulation macros won't work in lower
revisions. Excel is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. MonteCarloSimulationS is trademark pending by
Barringer & Associates, Inc.

Information in this software file is subject to change without notice for correction of errors and change of features.
Barringer & Associates, Inc. does not represent a commitment to notify users of any changes. This software is
furnished for demonstration purposes only. Copies of this demonstration software must acknowledge Barringer &
Associates, Inc. as the original source of the code. Copies must also include all narrative boxes with notices and
instructions.

Examples in this file are intended for training and education in the use of Monte Carlo simulations. No warranty
of accuracy, applicability, correctness of use, or throuroughness of purpose is stated or implied for this software.
As in the case of all engineering tools, you must exercise good judgment in the use of these software tools for safe
and responsible results using these Monte Carlo concepts. Use sound engineering and business judgments when
studying any simulation even using probabilitics calculations. A full set of MonteCarloSimulationS for EXCEL
5.0+ spreadsheets are available at a price of US$40.00 (including shipping & handling).

This software shows, with a few

Page 1
 Table Of Contents

Monte Carlo Models Using Weibull Equations For Excel Version 5.0 Spreadsheets

—If you get a message "Can't resolve circular references", just click "OK".

Monte Carlo Simulations Notes Click Click Process Diagram Simulation

Generate Random Numbers Click Click Air Compressor Life & Costs

Simple Series Failure Model Click Click Fault Tree Analysis

Competing Series Failure Model Click Click Age Of Part At Time Zero

Optimum Replacements Click Click Fix Failuers On Overtime?

Replacement/Inspection Click Click Plant Manager's Production Model

Maintenance Replacement Strategy Click Click Weibull Facts

TBA Click Click TBA

TBA Click Click TBA

TBA Click Click TBA

Press the button on the Banner Spreadsheet to initialize the spreadsheet calculations.

Page 2
 Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations

Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations

(A little bit of Monte Carlo simulation information for orientation--see readling list at the end of this information)

Read this narrative (double click inside this box and cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block). Then slide this sheet to one side, I.e., click on the
border, hold down the left mouse key, and drag to one side to uncover the spread sheet.

Do not delete this sheet, you may need some clues later when you build your own models!

1. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations use random numbers and math/statistical models to simulate (imitate) reality. We make assumptions about how a model
behaves (based on samples of data or engineering assumptions) to gain an understanding about how the corresponding real life system behaves.

2. Most real-world systems are too complex for analytical evaluations. Models must be studied with many simulations to estimate real-life conditions. MC
models are computer intensive and require many iterations to get a central tendency.

3. MC models help solve complicated deterministic problems (I.e., no random components) and probabilistic (stochastic) problems (I.e., contains random
components). Deterministic systems usually have one answer and perform the same way each time. Probabilistic systems have a range of answers with some
central tendency. MC models using probabilistic numbers never give the same exact results. When you re-run simulations you'll never get the same exact
answers because random numbers are used for the simulation. Look for the central tendency of the numbers, search for an unde

Page 3
Weibull Statistical Values For Non-symmetrical distributions
<--Input of variable data
<--Output of calculated results
Input these facts:
158.80 <-- h = Eta characteristic values
3.12 <-- b = Beta slope values
0.00 <-- t0 = Location shift or threshold parameter (sometimes called the failure free interval when t0>0)
50.00% <-- p = probability of failure (see row 16 for results)--also referred to a B-%Value or L-%Value
100.00 <-- t = a life value for calculating the CDF (see row 18 for results)
Get these results:
49.85 <-- s = Weibull standard deviation
142.06 <-- m = Weibull mean
141.20 <-- Median = Weibull median (where 50% of the units will be expected to have failed)
140.30 <-- Mode = Weibull mode (requires b >1, else the mode become t 0)
141.20 <-- tp = Life at which a specified percentile of failures (from row 9) will occur (or B-life in engineering term
0.35 <-- CV = Weibull coefficient of variation
21.04% <--CDF = % failed by time t
78.96% <--Reliability = % surviving by time t
0.007371 <--Hazard function = instantaneous failure rate at time t
0.00582 <--PDF = relative frequency at time t

Press the F9 key to update calculations

 Generate Random Numbers

Random Numbers Are Used To

Generate Random Times To Failure
Simulation Objective: Generate random times to failure for one to six data points per set and show how the
calculations of b and h vary on each iteration because of randomness in the data.
Generate
Choose A Choose A Only One Generate
Value of Value Of Age To Generate Two Three Age To Generate Four Generate Five Generate Six
Beta Eta Failure Age To Failures Failures Age To Failures Age To Failures Age To Failures
3.1 18000 13,055 12,704 9,976 24,692 10,401 15,253
12,704 9,976 24,692 10,401 14,139
9,976 24,692 10,401 5,514
Change as required 24,692 10,401 13,372
10,401 7,953
17,376
"X" (age to failure time) is regressed on "Y" (the CDF) to calculate the indicies shown below:
Calculated b -- #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.466
Calculated h -- 12,704.32 9,975.98 24,691.63 10,400.67 13,968.45
Calculated R2 -- #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.9321
Error in b -- #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.634
Error in h -- 5,295.68 8,024.02 -6,691.63 7,599.33 4,031.55
Min -- 12,704 9,976 24,692 10,401 5,514

Page 5
 Simple Failure Model

Simple Failure Model

Simulation Objective: Show how simple systems are modeled for system failure (using least time to
failure criteria for each iteration and including suspended [unfailed] data).

Component 1 2 3 4
Beta 1.8 3.7 2.5 0.7

Eta 18000 8000 12000 75000 Change As Required

Simulated Failure Time ' 23,517 9,342 6,309 1,369 0

Status Suspended Suspended Suspended Failed

Time To Fail -23,517 -9,342 -6,309 1,369 1,369 <--System Failure Time
Record Of Failures (negative values are suspensions):
Component: 1 2 3 4 System
-21,932 -4,940 -9,803 1,469 1,469
-14,717 7,437 -14,767 -60,838 7,437
4,409 -7,981 -4,928 -11,127 4,409
-6,266 5,235 -14,699 -281,120 5,235
-30,393 -7,987 -19,864 4,556 4,556
-21,477 3,778 -9,168 -185,829 3,778
-7,367 -7,351 6,237 -11,308 6,237

Page 6
 Air Compressor Model

Simulation Objective: Find MTTF, repair costs, MTTR, and overall maintenance cost of a compressor.
Given:
From the Weibull library, select Weibull characteristic failures for each component.
Solve the Weibull equation for time to failure. Use a uniform distribution of random number for the CDF which will vary between 0 and 1.
Record the least time to simulated failure, replace with a new part, and resume the simulation.
Know component failures to simulate performance of the system!!!!!
Data Given For The Simulation Find By Simulation***
Decision Total
Weibull $ Cost Repair Time to Total # Total Time
Component Weibull Column Accumulated Total Cost
eta per Time simulated Failures To Repair
Failing beta failure* For Time For of Failures
(hours) failure (hrs) Simulated Failures
Simulation Failures
Auto Drain 1.9 5,000 $100 1.5 11,138 0 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Reed Valves 2.3 6,000 $1,500 22.5 5,563 0 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Unloader 4 5,000 $200 3 5,730 0 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Bearings 2.5 12,000 $15,000 225 2,606 1 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Rings 2.5 10,000 $7,500 112.5 11,573 0 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Pistons 3 15,000 $10,000 150 8,145 0 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Check Valve 1.1 10,000 $500 7.5 13,629 0 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Motor 7 12,000 $4,000 40 7,701 0 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Vee Belts 1.9 8,000 $1,800 3 11,773 0 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Minimum Time To Failure For Each Iteration**--> 2,606 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Note: The Weibull value for motor is purposely chosen as a wrong number!
Mean time to failure--> Err:522 hours
Note: This model has been supersceeded by MCSAMPLE.XLS Failure rate--> Err:522 failures/hr
Mean time to repair--> Err:522 hours

Page 7
 Process Diagram Simulation

Process Diagram Simulation

Simulation Objective: Find the reliability of the block diagram system to meet the business plan by simulation—No repairs allowe

Name Plate Capacity (tons/mo)

Dryer A B
A Name Plate Capacity 200 250
Failure Time (mo.) Best 1 mo. actual capacity 170 240
5.6 Business Plan Forecast
Can We
Dryer Meet The
B Business Each dryer has a 3 year working life and is renewed once per year.
Plan ? Output Model For Each Dryer = (name plate capacity)*exp(-((t-t

7.3 Dryer Deterioration Characteristics

Dryer
C
A B
b 0.7 1
h 28 40
44.6 t0 (months) 0 0
Output: tons/mo Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
A 182 171 162 155 148 0 0 0
B 244 238 232 226 221 215 210 0
C 291 283 276 270 263 257 251 246
Total System 716 692 670 651 632 472 461 246
Annual Equipment Reliability--> Err:522 Annual Production Reliability Of Meeting Business Plan Forecast-->
Years Of Service Simulated--> Err:522

Page 8
 Optimum Replacement

Simulation Objective: Find the optimum (lowest cost per unit of time) replacement interval using zero time replacement parts.
Planned Unplanned
Beta Eta Replacement Replacement See results of iterations in cells A141:C141
Cost Cost
3 15 $10,000 $100,000 <--Change As Required

The "X" time axis is used for making timed replacements. If a part fails before the replacement interval is reached, extra costs
are charged for an "in service" failure. Otherwise the lower cost are used for an "off line" replacement in the iterations.
Replacement Replacement Replacement Replacement Replacement
Replacements
Failure Times IfareTimes
madeWhen
when: 1)Failure
the part fails Ifbefore
Times reaching
Times When theFailure
replacement
Times time, or 2)
Times when Failure
When the replacement
Times Timesinterval is reached.
When Failure Times Times When Failure Times
ForThan
Less a6, t = 0.75
Failure Times LessForThan
a7, t = 1.5 For a8,
Failure Times If Less Thant = 2.25 For a9,
Failure Times If Less Thant = 3Failure Times If For
Lessa10,
Thant= 3.75 For a11,
Failure Times If Less Thant=
Simulated Time
Planned Are Greater Planned Are Greater Planned Are Greater Planned Are Greater Planned Are Greater Planned
To Failure
1 9 Replacement Than Planned1 Replacement Than Planned2 Replacement Than Planned2 Replacement Than Planned3 Replacement Than Planned4 Replacement
Interval Replacement Interval Replacement Interval Replacement Interval Replacement Interval Replacement Interval
Interval Interval Interval Interval Interval

Page 9
 Replacement Inspection

Replacement/Inspections

Simulation Objective: Given two components in a system with differenct failure distributions, find when inspections, PM
replacements, and breakdown repairs must occur.
Ground rules: Failure times are simulated for each component. If the simulated time is less than
the inspection interval, a failure has occured. If the time is greater than the inspection interval but
less than the PM interval, then an inspection occurs. If the time is greater than the PM interval (but
less than 1.5 times the interval) a PM replacement occurs. If the time is greater than 1.5 times the
PM interval, a failure has occurred. For Chance failures and infant mortality failures, set the PM
Replacement interval to 200 times the characteristics life to avoid replacement flags from appearing
in the decision logic. A B

Part A Part B
PM
Inspection PM Replacement Inspection
Beta Eta Beta Eta Replacement
Interval Interval Interval
Interval
1.00 50,000 8,000 100,000,000 6.00 13,000 5,000 10,000

Simulated Simulated
Time To Failure Inspect Replace Time To Failure Inspect Replace
Action Action
13,951 Inspect 9,860 Inspect
Record: Err:508
Part A Record of Actions Part B Record of Actions
156,612 Inspect 14,213 Replace
23,801 Inspect 15,833 Failure
23,920 Inspect 11,603 Replace
88,042 Inspect 15,903 Failure

115 Failure 13,708 Replace

102,968 Inspect 13,260 Replace

95,569 Inspect 15,236 Failure

81,062 Inspect 8,076 Inspect
71,929 Inspect 8,155 Inspect
32,868 Inspect 14,006 Replace
139,381 Inspect 12,586 Replace
153,218 Inspect 13,612 Replace

Page 10
 Simulation
Obje ctive :
Ag e Of Part At Time Zero If first fa ilu re
i s l ess th an
PM
re pla cemen t
a ge, rep lace
the b roke n
p art. If
co mpon en t
l ife excee ds
re pla cemen t
i nterval the n
re pla ce th e
u nfailComponent
ed Data Interval For
p art. Early Fail ure
Find the N umbe r Of N umbe r Of
Beta Eta PM Replacement Co st (Lo st Rep lace ment Ea rly Su ccessful Ea rly Fa ilu re Replacement Cost Total Cost Total
optim um pro ductio n + Co st Co st C os t/hour
r epla ce me Re pla cemen t) Fai lure s Rep lace men ts
nt inter val.

1.9 3000 3000 $ 10,000.00 $ 2,500.00 627 373 $ 6,270,000 $ 932,500.00 $ 7,202,500 $ 3.24

Change the replacement interval to minimize the cost/hour

Sim ulate d Hour s
Fa iled Before
Age To PM Inte rva l? Acc um ulate d
Failur e On Component
Starting At 0 = N o, 1 Until Fa ilure Or
= Yes
Time Zer o Replace me nt
1486.2 1 1486.18
2324.1 1 2324.13

3221.2 0 3000.00
1857.5 1 1857.50

5140.0 0 3000.00

2307.7 1 2307.72
1109.7 1 1109.68
1812.1 1 1812.06
2219.7 1 2219.74
5573.2 0 3000.00
5144.0 0 3000.00
3706.2 0 3000.00
2521.7 1 2521.74

4129.3 0 3000.00

2000.1 1 2000.07

1711.9 1 1711.94
2336.1 1 2336.14
1842.6 1 1842.58
1404.9 1 1404.93
4645.2 0 3000.00
7541.1 0 3000.00
1520.7 1 1520.68
888.3 1 888.34

3595.1 0 3000.00
1546.7 1 1546.66
4389.8 0 3000.00
1950.8 1 1950.79
4190.8 0 3000.00
3478.5 0 3000.00
2558.8 1 2558.80
2565.3 1 2565.29
6383.0 0 3000.00
1890.9 1 1890.91
1512.4 1 1512.38
4087.6 0 3000.00
968.1 1 968.13
2088.8 1 2088.84
249.1 1 249.11
2551.8 1 2551.77
4126.8 0 3000.00
2694.1 1 2694.11
1566.8 1 1566.79
3773.4 0 3000.00
2621.2 1 2621.18
3010.5 0 3000.00
2340.8 1 2340.77
2446.7 1 2446.72
3286.9 0 3000.00
6341.7 0 3000.00
879.0 1 878.98
4345.0 0 3000.00
1521.8 1 1521.85
2890.7 1 2890.71
4552.6 0 3000.00
3124.3 0 3000.00
3798.1 0 3000.00
1451.4 1 1451.37
5173.8 0 3000.00
1501.6 1 1501.60
2366.1 1 2366.13
3970.2 0 3000.00
1397.4 1 1397.40
233.3 1 233.26
887.9 1 887.86
4365.1 0 3000.00
1962.5 1 1962.51
1288.2 1 1288.18
3841.1 0 3000.00
1754.1 1 1754.14
3212.2 0 3000.00
5315.7 0 3000.00
5411.4 0 3000.00
862.9 1 862.91
1782.5 1 1782.53
2203.9 1 2203.87
1132.7 1 1132.74
2698.2 1 2698.19
1169.7 1 1169.69
782.0 1 782.00
2684.9 1 2684.93
4504.4 0 3000.00
1707.0 1 1706.97
2013.7 1 2013.75
1948.2 1 1948.17
3752.2 0 3000.00
688.6 1 688.57
1122.5 1 1122.45
5196.8 0 3000.00
1380.6 1 1380.57
4204.6 0 3000.00
1580.0 1 1579.97
4979.7 0 3000.00
2017.3 1 2017.30
2570.2 1 2570.16
1727.1 1 1727.12
1826.9 1 1826.88
1947.5 1 1947.46
6069.7 0 3000.00
1635.6 1 1635.57
3495.4 0 3000.00
4594.2 0 3000.00
889.0 1 889.05
1286.3 1 1286.31
3409.6 0 3000.00
2300.7 1 2300.67
3879.4 0 3000.00
4150.0 0 3000.00
1398.2 1 1398.21
1225.8 1 1225.76
4406.3 0 3000.00
1625.0 1 1625.03
5473.1 0 3000.00
2953.2 1 2953.15
4485.2 0 3000.00
786.7 1 786.66
895.4 1 895.36
619.0 1 618.99
3292.5 0 3000.00
2896.3 1 2896.27
3223.8 0 3000.00
2003.4 1 2003.41
3300.4 0 3000.00
512.3 1 512.35
190.1 1 190.09
227.7 1 227.68
4133.9 0 3000.00
1312.6 1 1312.65
8121.3 0 3000.00
2532.7 1 2532.69
8411.7 0 3000.00

1724.8 1 1724.82
2727.9 1 2727.85
3903.3 0 3000.00
3910.0 0 3000.00
3716.0 0 3000.00
1593.5 1 1593.46
1135.8 1 1135.76
1606.7 1 1606.71
2397.0 1 2396.95
4958.5 0 3000.00
3243.1 0 3000.00
5143.3 0 3000.00
2896.5 1 2896.54
1697.1 1 1697.06
1572.6 1 1572.57
474.4 1 474.38
1903.1 1 1903.10
2608.0 1 2607.95
688.2 1 688.21
1660.9 1 1660.91
5546.0 0 3000.00
2443.5 1 2443.51
2280.8 1 2280.77
2604.3 1 2604.29
805.8 1 805.83
974.3 1 974.32
2380.7 1 2380.67
737.2 1 737.25
1334.3 1 1334.28
2583.7 1 2583.68
3533.7 0 3000.00
5461.3 0 3000.00
1546.9 1 1546.92
1772.8 1 1772.79
928.7 1 928.71
4090.4 0 3000.00
2166.0 1 2165.97
1607.0 1 1607.03
4866.1 0 3000.00
715.9 1 715.92
1623.3 1 1623.29
4893.0 0 3000.00
3889.6 0 3000.00
3097.8 0 3000.00
2300.2 1 2300.22
1448.1 1 1448.14
4775.1 0 3000.00
2152.8 1 2152.83
4138.8 0 3000.00
1810.5 1 1810.45
4271.0 0 3000.00
582.1 1 582.09
5200.3 0 3000.00
3656.4 0 3000.00
6367.5 0 3000.00
1000.4 1 1000.44
791.8 1 791.84
2893.9 1 2893.94
4531.7 0 3000.00
2664.2 1 2664.17
3457.1 0 3000.00
617.3 1 617.32
3200.8 0 3000.00
1105.3 1 1105.32
3332.8 0 3000.00
2969.4 1 2969.36
1364.7 1 1364.70
5961.1 0 3000.00
3380.1 0 3000.00
748.9 1 748.92
1657.7 1 1657.71
3244.9 0 3000.00
1981.8 1 1981.75
1326.2 1 1326.15
2053.1 1 2053.11
1891.3 1 1891.29
4263.5 0 3000.00
2194.7 1 2194.73
1250.5 1 1250.54
1689.6 1 1689.58
1090.1 1 1090.06
1721.0 1 1721.01
3236.1 0 3000.00
2184.4 1 2184.41
950.4 1 950.42
1076.7 1 1076.71
3469.9 0 3000.00
367.6 1 367.57
3503.1 0 3000.00
1745.8 1 1745.76
2501.9 1 2501.85
3843.0 0 3000.00
109.2 1 109.17
2308.6 1 2308.63
545.5 1 545.53
535.4 1 535.43
693.0 1 693.01
5312.3 0 3000.00
1370.3 1 1370.28
4884.7 0 3000.00
2247.7 1 2247.74
2664.9 1 2664.91
4612.4 0 3000.00
2000.8 1 2000.80
3398.6 0 3000.00
3166.6 0 3000.00
2993.1 1 2993.09
6402.6 0 3000.00
1983.9 1 1983.93
6645.9 0 3000.00
970.9 1 970.88
3411.2 0 3000.00
1928.1 1 1928.07
5123.6 0 3000.00
4390.6 0 3000.00
2793.6 1 2793.65
877.3 1 877.29
6118.9 0 3000.00
3421.6 0 3000.00
3201.7 0 3000.00
2881.3 1 2881.29
1223.2 1 1223.16
479.0 1 479.04
1358.7 1 1358.74
180.1 1 180.08
289.3 1 289.26
1463.0 1 1463.05
4005.9 0 3000.00
3144.0 0 3000.00
3195.3 0 3000.00
1054.0 1 1054.03
2279.7 1 2279.69
3694.4 0 3000.00
3275.3 0 3000.00
6054.7 0 3000.00
1134.4 1 1134.44
1666.7 1 1666.66
4041.5 0 3000.00
4443.4 0 3000.00
1597.7 1 1597.69

Page 11
Ag e Of Part At Time Zero

3583.7 0 3000.00
3700.0 0 3000.00
2009.1 1 2009.08
948.1 1 948.12
1447.8 1 1447.83
3326.0 0 3000.00
7238.8 0 3000.00
2902.7 1 2902.73
662.0 1 661.97
2393.3 1 2393.27
2319.9 1 2319.89
1071.7 1 1071.73
1878.5 1 1878.47
4365.6 0 3000.00
4471.4 0 3000.00
1662.5 1 1662.52
2408.4 1 2408.36
301.9 1 301.85
3498.5 0 3000.00
3569.6 0 3000.00
1368.2 1 1368.21
643.8 1 643.83
5651.1 0 3000.00
623.7 1 623.69
2702.6 1 2702.60
4060.0 0 3000.00
3018.7 0 3000.00
3604.2 0 3000.00
4992.9 0 3000.00
524.7 1 524.68
948.1 1 948.10
1366.6 1 1366.64
1085.8 1 1085.79
4081.6 0 3000.00
1204.2 1 1204.25
667.3 1 667.27
2601.8 1 2601.84
2076.1 1 2076.12
8009.0 0 3000.00
1405.2 1 1405.25
2477.9 1 2477.89
572.3 1 572.27
162.6 1 162.65
2796.7 1 2796.74
4109.5 0 3000.00
719.3 1 719.28
1077.8 1 1077.81
2024.3 1 2024.26
1155.3 1 1155.32
1708.3 1 1708.30
2629.7 1 2629.73
4394.0 0 3000.00
1446.3 1 1446.27
3590.4 0 3000.00
2448.7 1 2448.67
2723.9 1 2723.94
5191.7 0 3000.00
1203.8 1 1203.84
1080.3 1 1080.26
2384.6 1 2384.60
1045.9 1 1045.93
2128.9 1 2128.95
3965.1 0 3000.00
584.0 1 583.98
1867.5 1 1867.47
6954.1 0 3000.00
2404.5 1 2404.53
3458.7 0 3000.00
2788.9 1 2788.93
4348.2 0 3000.00
1743.0 1 1742.98
480.7 1 480.67
893.0 1 893.03
3257.7 0 3000.00
2731.8 1 2731.79
3904.6 0 3000.00
2383.9 1 2383.91
574.7 1 574.66
2833.2 1 2833.18
1110.8 1 1110.81
1076.2 1 1076.22
3108.3 0 3000.00
3580.1 0 3000.00
2345.5 1 2345.53
1957.5 1 1957.47
522.9 1 522.93
620.9 1 620.89
2010.1 1 2010.12
2676.0 1 2676.05
1531.0 1 1531.02
2106.5 1 2106.48
1689.7 1 1689.69
2704.9 1 2704.92
2532.4 1 2532.38
578.6 1 578.64
2011.4 1 2011.40
4237.2 0 3000.00
2983.8 1 2983.79
2038.2 1 2038.16
896.9 1 896.94
2596.7 1 2596.70
3528.6 0 3000.00
2645.3 1 2645.33
1698.1 1 1698.11
3512.3 0 3000.00
1934.1 1 1934.14
2759.3 1 2759.28
2966.9 1 2966.95
2810.0 1 2810.05
2482.4 1 2482.40
3342.0 0 3000.00
3172.9 0 3000.00
2361.0 1 2360.99
1866.4 1 1866.35
3747.2 0 3000.00
1769.8 1 1769.78
2482.5 1 2482.48
2185.2 1 2185.16
1895.1 1 1895.05
1632.9 1 1632.93
3129.9 0 3000.00
3046.7 0 3000.00
1189.5 1 1189.53
3132.2 0 3000.00
6216.4 0 3000.00
1729.6 1 1729.56
2616.8 1 2616.84
5487.3 0 3000.00
1915.5 1 1915.49
2694.2 1 2694.20
3193.6 0 3000.00
2173.8 1 2173.85
4384.4 0 3000.00
3642.4 0 3000.00
2359.5 1 2359.47
2006.6 1 2006.63
2305.5 1 2305.47
2531.0 1 2531.01
4255.1 0 3000.00
2827.6 1 2827.64
4018.9 0 3000.00
2936.3 1 2936.25
3729.7 0 3000.00
87.8 1 87.77
3862.4 0 3000.00
820.2 1 820.20
3691.1 0 3000.00
1339.6 1 1339.64
2030.7 1 2030.67
2150.7 1 2150.66
1662.5 1 1662.45
765.7 1 765.71
6179.9 0 3000.00
546.0 1 546.04
3173.1 0 3000.00
2410.6 1 2410.58
6473.2 0 3000.00
4009.3 0 3000.00
2490.1 1 2490.11
2094.6 1 2094.62
2666.0 1 2665.98
1803.0 1 1803.03
1632.9 1 1632.87
1753.0 1 1752.97
1189.8 1 1189.77
2669.1 1 2669.11
2386.1 1 2386.14
3251.0 0 3000.00
2062.7 1 2062.68
2405.4 1 2405.40
6837.9 0 3000.00
3371.7 0 3000.00
1472.3 1 1472.32
2138.5 1 2138.46
726.0 1 726.04
2373.1 1 2373.09
2006.1 1 2006.10
3298.9 0 3000.00
956.0 1 956.00
2325.5 1 2325.50
1810.2 1 1810.18
2960.2 1 2960.16
2488.7 1 2488.75
550.3 1 550.33
1937.1 1 1937.13
6155.4 0 3000.00
2999.0 1 2998.96
1628.7 1 1628.71
3736.9 0 3000.00
1796.0 1 1796.02
1482.4 1 1482.40
3343.2 0 3000.00
1153.4 1 1153.38
4903.9 0 3000.00
2987.8 1 2987.81
3549.2 0 3000.00
2601.0 1 2601.02
474.6 1 474.64
2083.4 1 2083.43
2154.0 1 2154.04
804.2 1 804.22
4297.4 0 3000.00
3522.9 0 3000.00
1034.2 1 1034.17
5690.5 0 3000.00
3470.8 0 3000.00
5120.2 0 3000.00
3740.8 0 3000.00
3081.4 0 3000.00
1726.4 1 1726.37
3425.0 0 3000.00
5903.2 0 3000.00
944.2 1 944.20
1951.8 1 1951.77
1584.2 1 1584.18
1810.4 1 1810.36
3689.5 0 3000.00
3045.0 0 3000.00
1624.1 1 1624.12
3604.5 0 3000.00
1417.2 1 1417.21
1086.7 1 1086.70
4152.6 0 3000.00
4804.8 0 3000.00
3424.6 0 3000.00
6680.6 0 3000.00
998.5 1 998.48
1098.4 1 1098.44
2128.6 1 2128.58
3176.5 0 3000.00
2467.1 1 2467.12
2563.6 1 2563.58
3214.7 0 3000.00
2550.3 1 2550.31
4539.6 0 3000.00
3184.7 0 3000.00
557.2 1 557.23
6130.2 0 3000.00
3946.9 0 3000.00
3477.8 0 3000.00
705.0 1 704.98
724.9 1 724.87
1289.5 1 1289.45
865.0 1 865.05
827.4 1 827.36
5245.5 0 3000.00
2847.8 1 2847.81
3499.6 0 3000.00
3201.2 0 3000.00
1881.6 1 1881.58
2332.2 1 2332.15
5447.3 0 3000.00
4263.5 0 3000.00
1071.2 1 1071.24
4232.8 0 3000.00
3722.9 0 3000.00
2647.9 1 2647.91
3057.5 0 3000.00
3153.5 0 3000.00
1104.8 1 1104.83
3983.5 0 3000.00
943.6 1 943.65
3391.0 0 3000.00
5270.5 0 3000.00
2111.6 1 2111.59
2055.9 1 2055.93
5601.5 0 3000.00
2023.6 1 2023.61
1969.3 1 1969.28
2834.9 1 2834.93
1824.4 1 1824.43
2210.4 1 2210.39
3962.4 0 3000.00
2198.4 1 2198.39
1532.5 1 1532.54
1160.3 1 1160.26
1751.9 1 1751.93
955.1 1 955.06
6660.5 0 3000.00
1119.7 1 1119.74
6456.4 0 3000.00
3953.7 0 3000.00
1410.6 1 1410.61
5489.5 0 3000.00
453.9 1 453.94
2888.1 1 2888.09
5117.8 0 3000.00
3202.9 0 3000.00
3383.9 0 3000.00
5538.2 0 3000.00
3392.5 0 3000.00
3012.4 0 3000.00
7003.4 0 3000.00
2797.9 1 2797.88
3235.4 0 3000.00
5905.1 0 3000.00
1501.3 1 1501.31
1249.8 1 1249.84
1991.7 1 1991.69
3709.2 0 3000.00
3404.3 0 3000.00
1630.0 1 1630.01

Page 1 2
Ag e Of Part At Time Zero

2802.5 1 2802.54
1977.7 1 1977.73
2355.5 1 2355.53
4177.1 0 3000.00
4100.7 0 3000.00
1176.7 1 1176.69
5369.6 0 3000.00
3414.3 0 3000.00
1687.5 1 1687.47
1442.1 1 1442.10
4155.7 0 3000.00
3037.9 0 3000.00
2658.7 1 2658.68
3324.1 0 3000.00
2825.4 1 2825.37
2482.5 1 2482.47
2209.5 1 2209.48
3242.6 0 3000.00
2682.0 1 2681.97
2903.2 1 2903.21
3476.4 0 3000.00
2053.4 1 2053.35
1477.6 1 1477.56
2235.3 1 2235.32
1051.2 1 1051.19
2328.9 1 2328.93
817.0 1 816.96
1834.1 1 1834.06
2669.3 1 2669.31
3154.8 0 3000.00
1812.6 1 1812.58
2301.3 1 2301.35
1793.0 1 1793.04
1263.0 1 1262.97
1017.6 1 1017.58
2721.0 1 2721.03
3284.7 0 3000.00
2105.1 1 2105.08
2438.6 1 2438.60
6381.2 0 3000.00
3861.1 0 3000.00
2559.4 1 2559.44
3000.2 0 3000.00
2492.7 1 2492.69
507.0 1 507.00
5280.4 0 3000.00
2280.2 1 2280.24
4740.7 0 3000.00
3620.0 0 3000.00
1925.4 1 1925.41
1806.3 1 1806.27
1506.2 1 1506.21
1396.1 1 1396.13
2674.6 1 2674.63
1820.4 1 1820.37
2123.5 1 2123.48
1045.2 1 1045.19
1971.8 1 1971.81
2972.8 1 2972.83
2256.1 1 2256.06
1149.6 1 1149.63
2576.6 1 2576.62
1337.7 1 1337.66
2655.2 1 2655.16
4263.7 0 3000.00
2486.2 1 2486.22
2669.3 1 2669.29
3172.9 0 3000.00
1107.5 1 1107.54
2003.4 1 2003.36
1141.4 1 1141.37
3090.1 0 3000.00
4294.0 0 3000.00
3663.0 0 3000.00
2995.9 1 2995.94
1888.2 1 1888.23
3592.0 0 3000.00
1143.4 1 1143.43
1661.8 1 1661.81
3226.6 0 3000.00
1077.9 1 1077.87
3233.7 0 3000.00
1899.9 1 1899.85
2123.9 1 2123.87
1676.7 1 1676.68
2700.5 1 2700.54
824.3 1 824.32
3077.1 0 3000.00
2389.1 1 2389.13
1991.4 1 1991.43
1441.6 1 1441.61
2400.7 1 2400.67
390.3 1 390.29
1857.6 1 1857.56
665.4 1 665.39
3413.1 0 3000.00
7127.9 0 3000.00
1512.6 1 1512.61
3952.1 0 3000.00
1080.6 1 1080.58
3951.2 0 3000.00
1467.5 1 1467.47
1947.1 1 1947.06
3929.0 0 3000.00
2216.5 1 2216.53
3961.0 0 3000.00
3532.4 0 3000.00
4878.8 0 3000.00
4209.2 0 3000.00
2427.4 1 2427.37
1710.4 1 1710.39
2830.1 1 2830.14
4994.2 0 3000.00
910.0 1 910.03
3266.8 0 3000.00
1865.7 1 1865.69
2328.4 1 2328.43
4551.4 0 3000.00
2328.1 1 2328.08
1471.6 1 1471.57
2970.9 1 2970.93
2246.2 1 2246.22
3193.7 0 3000.00
2862.6 1 2862.58
1452.1 1 1452.11
769.7 1 769.65
559.6 1 559.60
6053.2 0 3000.00
1094.9 1 1094.94
981.6 1 981.56
3399.1 0 3000.00
3318.2 0 3000.00
1689.1 1 1689.11
1876.5 1 1876.52
3785.6 0 3000.00
3907.2 0 3000.00
3123.1 0 3000.00
3375.0 0 3000.00
5521.1 0 3000.00
3720.0 0 3000.00
780.4 1 780.42
2128.3 1 2128.34
2205.0 1 2204.95
3244.6 0 3000.00
775.1 1 775.14
3232.6 0 3000.00
3695.9 0 3000.00
2903.8 1 2903.82
2785.9 1 2785.91
6211.9 0 3000.00
5815.5 0 3000.00
1083.3 1 1083.33
915.3 1 915.30
544.8 1 544.81
2105.1 1 2105.09
4841.5 0 3000.00
1566.4 1 1566.43
2693.2 1 2693.21
576.2 1 576.21
2381.3 1 2381.33
2777.0 1 2777.00
1832.7 1 1832.74
3497.5 0 3000.00
2878.4 1 2878.40
2614.4 1 2614.40
1854.3 1 1854.34
1485.8 1 1485.82
4265.0 0 3000.00
3793.5 0 3000.00
1977.5 1 1977.50
3203.8 0 3000.00
3154.4 0 3000.00
4977.6 0 3000.00
2005.8 1 2005.79
3580.3 0 3000.00
3800.6 0 3000.00
410.1 1 410.08
3647.9 0 3000.00
3918.4 0 3000.00
3169.0 0 3000.00
6650.7 0 3000.00
1643.0 1 1643.03
2359.8 1 2359.78
2304.2 1 2304.19
2550.2 1 2550.24
4306.3 0 3000.00
520.9 1 520.93
2472.6 1 2472.57
4119.0 0 3000.00
4243.4 0 3000.00
1961.7 1 1961.70
2110.4 1 2110.35
3310.8 0 3000.00 PM Interval
4223.2 0 3000.00 0
2133.6 1 2133.62 0
4014.0 0 3000.00
2013.5 1 2013.51
4556.9 0 3000.00
5916.6 0 3000.00
2604.3 1 2604.28
4150.0 0 3000.00
5030.5 0 3000.00
2542.4 1 2542.37
6098.1 0 3000.00
2698.6 1 2698.61
851.6 1 851.58
2997.9 1 2997.86
1921.9 1 1921.87
2323.4 1 2323.41
4512.1 0 3000.00
4933.9 0 3000.00
2287.5 1 2287.46
2789.6 1 2789.59
1832.1 1 1832.12
729.7 1 729.68
998.9 1 998.89
1459.4 1 1459.45
153.0 1 153.04
2696.2 1 2696.18
1488.9 1 1488.88
843.3 1 843.34
3598.5 0 3000.00
43.4 1 43.39
2077.4 1 2077.38
2589.9 1 2589.90
2404.1 1 2404.09
2758.2 1 2758.20
887.5 1 887.54
4223.0 0 3000.00
3029.5 0 3000.00
1599.8 1 1599.77
1517.9 1 1517.87
1797.6 1 1797.57
1906.6 1 1906.56
1215.7 1 1215.71
4816.8 0 3000.00
1141.1 1 1141.14
3059.3 0 3000.00
2449.0 1 2449.02
768.5 1 768.50
4586.8 0 3000.00
3163.2 0 3000.00
3543.4 0 3000.00
5963.5 0 3000.00
2593.7 1 2593.70
3494.2 0 3000.00
2781.7 1 2781.71
1689.3 1 1689.26
3344.7 0 3000.00
1260.3 1 1260.31
3593.3 0 3000.00
1725.1 1 1725.12
950.9 1 950.90
5187.4 0 3000.00
5167.7 0 3000.00
348.4 1 348.44
6304.6 0 3000.00
2848.7 1 2848.72
1440.4 1 1440.44
2891.4 1 2891.42
1655.1 1 1655.08
1479.0 1 1479.02
3153.7 0 3000.00
4313.6 0 3000.00
2716.3 1 2716.28
2161.0 1 2161.02
1805.0 1 1804.99
3876.9 0 3000.00
1396.9 1 1396.94
3264.7 0 3000.00
3032.9 0 3000.00
1074.6 1 1074.57
2427.2 1 2427.20
2210.5 1 2210.53
3672.3 0 3000.00
1483.4 1 1483.43
1433.7 1 1433.67
2186.3 1 2186.34
4018.2 0 3000.00
643.1 1 643.05
2650.9 1 2650.95
3392.3 0 3000.00
497.6 1 497.58
4115.9 0 3000.00
4176.5 0 3000.00
3664.6 0 3000.00
5521.0 0 3000.00
3907.8 0 3000.00
3561.8 0 3000.00
2074.6 1 2074.56
2277.5 1 2277.46
751.6 1 751.64
2788.7 1 2788.69
3995.7 0 3000.00
3568.6 0 3000.00
3986.8 0 3000.00
5527.3 0 3000.00
1603.4 1 1603.39
2411.0 1 2411.01
953.0 1 953.03
2956.0 1 2956.01
3513.0 0 3000.00

Page 1 3
Ag e Of Part At Time Zero

4731.1 0 3000.00
6480.6 0 3000.00
3293.2 0 3000.00
2584.5 1 2584.48
2695.8 1 2695.80
871.3 1 871.32
2397.7 1 2397.74
5631.8 0 3000.00
1638.3 1 1638.26
6117.7 0 3000.00
2918.8 1 2918.84
2563.2 1 2563.23
909.1 1 909.13
3070.3 0 3000.00
3433.6 0 3000.00
971.4 1 971.39
471.5 1 471.49
740.0 1 740.02
3166.2 0 3000.00
2497.4 1 2497.38
1716.0 1 1716.03
5095.0 0 3000.00
2468.7 1 2468.66
3338.5 0 3000.00
1199.3 1 1199.32
2706.9 1 2706.88
2749.8 1 2749.84
3855.6 0 3000.00
939.3 1 939.28
4146.0 0 3000.00
1928.1 1 1928.11
1814.4 1 1814.40
587.1 1 587.13
2941.9 1 2941.87
4185.6 0 3000.00
692.6 1 692.60
3315.3 0 3000.00
809.4 1 809.43
4125.3 0 3000.00
2114.9 1 2114.86
480.7 1 480.69
3270.7 0 3000.00
4503.3 0 3000.00
987.1 1 987.14
3776.1 0 3000.00
2040.4 1 2040.37
2734.7 1 2734.71
2634.9 1 2634.89
1763.2 1 1763.23
4935.0 0 3000.00
2767.9 1 2767.87
2631.8 1 2631.85
4419.0 0 3000.00
725.8 1 725.78
4806.8 0 3000.00
2162.7 1 2162.65
2277.3 1 2277.30
2929.8 1 2929.76
1513.8 1 1513.84
3978.9 0 3000.00
1133.0 1 1132.97
5265.1 0 3000.00
4332.1 0 3000.00
5035.6 0 3000.00
4161.6 0 3000.00
3378.7 0 3000.00
1956.7 1 1956.68
543.0 1 542.97
6327.7 0 3000.00
1492.0 1 1492.04
777.0 1 777.00
2219.5 1 2219.50
2268.0 1 2268.00
5270.3 0 3000.00
2012.0 1 2012.01
2640.4 1 2640.38
1021.9 1 1021.87
3044.7 0 3000.00
4527.5 0 3000.00
1872.2 1 1872.25
2239.9 1 2239.90
1043.5 1 1043.50
3346.2 0 3000.00
1319.7 1 1319.74
3151.9 0 3000.00
2772.1 1 2772.09
1568.6 1 1568.63
2395.9 1 2395.89
1961.4 1 1961.41
2276.7 1 2276.66
2149.9 1 2149.94
5239.9 0 3000.00
3196.5 0 3000.00
2813.1 1 2813.12
3938.7 0 3000.00
1317.1 1 1317.11
2366.4 1 2366.43
3697.1 0 3000.00
3481.4 0 3000.00
1681.7 1 1681.72
531.2 1 531.15
1998.2 1 1998.20
3786.2 0 3000.00
2483.6 1 2483.56
2530.8 1 2530.80
1160.8 1 1160.85
1233.4 1 1233.39
2368.4 1 2368.37
1727.1 1 1727.14
848.5 1 848.51
3055.2 0 3000.00
3096.3 0 3000.00
3499.2 0 3000.00
1752.8 1 1752.83
2357.9 1 2357.94
1608.6 1 1608.60
3957.8 0 3000.00
4339.9 0 3000.00
1112.7 1 1112.74
1369.6 1 1369.60
3849.2 0 3000.00
1288.0 1 1288.04
1673.0 1 1673.00
4770.7 0 3000.00
1403.1 1 1403.07
1000 627 2219810.84

Page 1 4
 FTA

Fault Tree
Analysis
Item Fails Subassy Assembly Top Level
Simulated Theoretical
Chance For 0 = Failure Fails Fails Fails
Failure Item Random # Chance For Chance For
Failure 1= 0=Failure 0=Failure 0=Failure
Failure Failure
Success 1=Success 1=Success 1=Success

1 0.2 0.908435 1 1

2 0.3 0.736745 1 1
3 0.4 0.432513 1 1 0
4 0.5 0.980213 1
5 0.6 0.295589 0 0

Cum
Cum System Cum System
Success -> Err:522 Failures--> Err:522 Iterations Err:522 Err:522 0.6048
-->

% error--> Err:522
Reliability Block Diagram Fault Tree Diagram
(Success Diagram) (Failure Diagram)
Incident
RL =1-(0.2)*(0.2)=0.96 RR=1-(0.2)*(0.2)=0.96
FOR =0.2 +0.0016
OR -(0.2)*(0.0016)
= 0.20128

R1 R2 R3 R4 F5 =(0.2) AND
FAND =(0.04)*(0.04)
F5 =0.0016

FL=(0.2)*(0.2) FR=(0.2)*(0.2)
=0.04 =0.04
AND AND
R5

F1 F2 F3 F4

if R1=R2=R3=R4=R5=0.8 if F1=F2=F3=F4=F5=0.2
Rs = 0.8*{1-(0.04)*(0.04)}=0.79872 Fs = 0.20128
Fault Tree Analysis
(A little bit of simulation information for orientation)

Read this narrative (double click inside this box and cursor down, or pull down the lower edge of this
block). Then slide this sheet to one side, I.e., click on the border, hold down the left mouse key, and
drag to one side to uncover the spread sheet.

Do not delete this sheet, you may need some clues later when you build your own models!

This model shows a small series/parallel block diagram system with elements R1, R2, R3, R4, and R5
(which you can change for your evaluation). The same system is shown in fault tree logic as F1, F2,
F3, F4, and F5.

Reliability block diagrams are success oriented.

For a series system:
If Ra=0.9 and Rb=0.8 are reliability values in series, then the system reliability is Ra*Rb =
0.8*0.9 = 0.72 or a 72% chance for success.
For a parallel system:
If Ra=0.9 and Rb=0.8 are reliability values in parallel, then the system reliability is 1-(1-Ra) *
(1-Rb) = 1 - (1-0.8) * (1-0.9) = 0.98 or a 98% chance for success.

Fault tree diagrams are failure oriented (as described by the lack of reliability).
For things in series described by an OR gate:
If URa=0.1 and URb=0.2 are unreliabilities in series, the fault tree calculation is URa+URb-
(Ura*Urb) = 0.1+0.2-0.1*0.2 = 0.18 or a 18% chance for failure which is the complement of the value
obtained from the series reliability block diagram system.
For things in parallel described by an AND gate:
If URa=0.1 and URb=0.2 are unreliabilities in parallel, the fault tree calculation is Ura*Urb =
0.1*0.

Page 15
 Plant Managers Production Model

Plant Manager's Production Model Based On The Business Plan Goals And Last Years Production

Simulation Objective: From last years Weibull model of production and this years business plan, what are the odds the Plant Manger will meet the
business plan goal and thus get his bonus.

Hint: Use Last Year's Daily Plan Output and WinSMITH Weibull TM software to find a Weibull model of daily plant output
Model Of Daily Plant Output From WeibullSMITH
Beta Eta
12 287,050 <--Use history to make this model for simulation

Production vs Goal
Annual Business Plan Forecast
From Iterations

Change as required--> Yearly Output 100,000,000 Err:522 <--Chance the plant manger makes his bonus?

Monthly Output 8,333,333

Err:522 (Based on 365 random draws of daily production
Seven Day Output 1,923,077 Err:522 each iteration.)

Daily Output 273,973 Err:522

Err:522

Number of iterations (same as # of years operation)--> Err:522

Err:522

Barringer's Business Law: If the Plant Manager can't meet his goals, then you've got to make a change to get a change or else everyone
suffers!!

Page 16
 Fix Failures On Overtime¿

Fix Failures On Overtime?

Simulation Objective: Will surviving redundant equipment fail before the first failure is restored and will the use of overtime to reduce the risk of out of service c
for both units ?

No Overtime
Change as required # Iterations

A b 1.2 Err:522 Unreliability Costs wo/OT

h 16000 System Outage Due To A= Err:522 Err:522

Usual Repair Costs$= $2,000.00 System Outage Due To B= Err:522 Err:522
Extra Overtime Cost$= $500.00 Overall System Results= Err:522 Err:522
Normal Repair Time= 8 Maintenance Costs= Err:522

Time Saved By Overtime= 2 Total System Results= Err:522

Loss If Both Fail $= $500,000.00
B b 1.2

h 500 Risks cost (unreliability * sytem outage cost)= Err:522

Usual Repair Costs$= $2,000.00 Risks cost with Over Time (unreliability * sytem outage cost)= Err:522

Extra Overtime Cost$= $500.00 Did the extra cost of overtime save money in the long run? Err:522

Normal Repair Time= 8

Time Saved By Overtime= 1

Page 17
 Competing Failure Mode Model

Competing Failure Mode Model

Simulation Objective: Show how a competing failure modes alters system failure times.

Competeting Failure Modes Model Of Components:

Component 1a 1b 1c 1d 2 3 4

Beta 1.8 1 0.4 6 3.7 2.5 0.7

Eta 18000 50000 100000 70000 14000 17000 25000

Weibull Time To
Simulated Failure

4,680 5,538 8,912 57,727 11,372 26,316 323

Pacing Failure Times 4,680 11,372 26,316 323

Status Failed

Min. Fail Time 323

Record Of Failures (suspensions excluded):

Component: 1a 1b 1c 1d 2 3 4
234
39
8,543
186
1
8,539

2,054

13,046

12,313

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 Maint. Replace Strategy

Objective: Find the correct RCM repair strategy given the failure mode details

Err:522 Err:522

Fix When Optimum

Maintenance Strategy Used-->
Broken Replacement

Best Strategy Best Strategy

Beta (0.5 < b < 10)--> 1.1 <--Beta tells about failure mode
Eta--> 100 <--Eta tells about length of life Fraction of eta-->
Time-->

Simulated Time To Failure--> 100 Costs-->

Ordinate for MTTF Integration-->
$'s For Planned Replacement--> $ 1,000.00 "Area=Ordinate*time increment"-->

$'s For Unplanned Replacement-->

$20,000.00 MTBF=Area under the curve-->
~Optimum replacement costs, $/hr--> $ 201.488 Costs/time-->

Optimum replacement interval or 2*eta as limit-->

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