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Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Sheet index
# Worksheet
1 1.Input -->
2 P&L assumptions
3 BS assumptions
4 2.Output -->
5 P&L
6 BS
7 Cash Flow
8 DCF valuation
9 3.Charts -->
10 Revenue&Ebitda
11 Cash flows
12 Ebitda bridge
13 Working capital
14 DCF results
15 4. Sources -->
16 P&L source
17 BS source
1.Input -->
P&L assumptions
Case scenarios:
Case 1: Optimistic case
Case 2: Base case
Selected case 1 Case 3: Worst case
-18% -18%
-18% -18%
-20% -20%
-22% -22%
BS assumptions
74,819
105.6
58,593
82.7
87,697
26.1%
21,768
6.5%
11,757
3.5%
2.Output -->
P&L
1.0
FY18
Forecast Note
335,576
2,585
338,161
(255,037)
83,123
(33,558)
49,566
(6,712)
42,854
(2,664)
-
40,190
(7,234)
-18%
32,956
Balance Sheet
Check - - - - - - -
FY18
Forecast Note
5,650 Flat
87,697
10,323 Flat
74,819
70,189
21,768
80,261 Opening cash + Net Cash Flow
350,706
58,593
11,757
51,121 No additional debt
229,236
350,706
-
Cash Flow
.
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
$ in thousands Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
EBIT P&L 16,564 23,130 30,089 32,840
Operating taxes P&L (3,740) (4,380) (5,416) (5,911)
Operating tax rate -23% -19% -18% -18%
NOPAT 12,824 18,750 24,673 26,929
Add-back D&A P&L 4,650 6,431 4,584 5,042
Gross Cash Flow 17,474 25,181 29,257 31,971
Inventory BS (5,230) (9,815) (4,891) (5,110)
Trade receivables BS (5,672) (5,026) (4,358) (4,794)
Trade payables BS 10,460 9,838 3,830 4,002
Investments in working capital (442) (5,003) (5,419) (5,902)
Investments in other assets/liabilities BS (2,686) (3,571) 2,292 (684)
Capex BS (8,616) (13,467) (8,373) (11,032)
Other investments BS (885) (302) - -
Extraordinary items P&L (864) (320) - -
UFCF 3,981 2,518 17,757 14,353
Interest expenses P&L (2,191) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664)
Delta Oper taxes vs. Taxes P&L 690 565.1 480 480
Delta Financial liabilities BS 9,352 475 - -
Delta Equity incl. dividends BS, P&L (4,214) (12,130) - -
Net Cash Flow 7,618 (11,235) 15,573 12,168
WACC 10%
g 2%
1.0 2.0 3.0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
$ in thousands Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
UFCF 17,757 14,353 15,576
Discount factor (WACC) 0.91 0.83 0.75
PV of UFCF 16,143 11,862 11,703
DCF Valuation
PV of Cash flows 62,691 $ 30% of Enterprise value
Continuing value 234,624 $
PV of Continuing value 145,683 $ 70% of Enterprise value
Enterprise value 208,374 $
-Financial liabilities (51,121) $
+Cash 8,174 $
Equity value 165,427 $
WACC
208,374.3 8% 10%
1%
g 2%
3%
4%
4.0 5.0
FY17 FY18
Forecast Forecast Note
16,922 18,402
0.68 0.62
11,558 11,426 Unlevered free cash flow multiplied by discount factor in order to obtain Present Value
Sum of the present value of Cash Flows for the period 2014-2018
WACC
12% 14%
3.Charts -->
Revenues & EBITDA
Cash flows
Ebitda bridge
Working capital
DCF results
4.Sources -->
P&L source
- - -