S A F E T Y A D V I S O R

Operations & Proficiency No. 11

Do The Right Thing:

Decision Making for Pilots
Aeronautical Decision Making. If you’ve been around
aviation very long, you’ve almost certainly heard the
term. Perhaps you’ve wondered what it actually meant.
Or perhaps you’ve looked at the literature on the subject
and struggled to make sense of all the information. If so,
you’re not alone. For pilots accustomed to concrete
answers, the concept of Aeronautical Decision Making
seems a bit too academic—too “fuzzy.”

The goal of decision making is really very simple: doing

the right thing, at the right time. In this Safety Advisor,
we’ll look at some practical ways to achieve that goal.

Why Decision Making?

Why should you care about decision making? The
numbers speak for themselves. Poor decision making is

The goal of the root cause of many—if not most—aviation

accidents. Year after year, the NTSB attributes
approximately 75 percent of all aircraft accidents to
pilot error, with a very large number the direct result of

decision making poor decisions.

General Aviation Accidents, 1996-2005

is really very MAJOR CAUSE

Pilot
Mechanical/
Maintenance
All Accidents
74.7%

15.3%
Fatal Accidents
77.9%

8.8%

simple: doing Other/Unknown 10.0% 13.4%

the right thing, You don’t have to be a high-time pilot to make

consistently good decisions about flying. New private
pilots already know most of the things that are likely to
get them into serious trouble: weather, maneuvering

at the right time. flight, strong winds, etc. A major portion of primary
flight training is devoted to teaching the dangers
inherent in these things. But the key to applying that
training—and the thing that seems to cause pilots the

Safe Pilots. Safe Skies. www.asf.org

most difficulty—is recognizing potential hazards and
taking timely action to avoid them.

Broadly speaking, in most accidents that stem from bad

decisions, at least one of the following factors is
involved: utility, ability, or fun.

Utility: Attempting to squeeze too much utility out of

the airplane. Flight into icing conditions; overloading; Most of the time, the really tough decisions don’t just
trying to stretch range; etc. The desire to get the most “sneak up” on pilots. In fuel exhaustion accidents, for
out of the airplane leads to a situation that exceeds its example, virtually all the pilots knew that that they were
design limitations. cutting into their fuel reserves when they still had a
chance to divert. Good decision making is about avoiding
the circumstances that lead to really tough choices.

Go/No-Go?
It may seem obvious, but some of the best aeronautical
decisions are made on the ground. A prudent preflight
choice can eliminate the need to make a much more
difficult in-flight decision.

Such choices are easy to make when conditions are

obviously poor, or obviously good. In the real world,
though, the situation is often less clear-cut. When
conditions are marginal, the go/no-go decision has a curious
Know and respect your limits, and those of your aircraft. Do you way of becoming a perfect storm of complicating factors—
really need all that luggage? time, money, emotions, personal commitments,
professional obligations, etc. These are powerful motivators,
Ability: Pushing the limits of pilot skill or experience. and even the most safety-conscious of pilots can find it
The classic (and often fatal) example is a noninstrument- extremely difficult to “just say no” to a flight, particularly
rated pilot continuing into instrument conditions. when getting there is important and conditions don’t clearly
argue for staying on the ground.

The best way to avoid temptation is to prepare a

contingency plan. General
aviation aircraft can be superb

Don’t let the desire to have fun overwhelm your better judgment.

Fun: Trying to have too much fun in the airplane. This

shows up in accident reports as buzzing, low-level
flight, improper aerobatics, etc. Prepare a contingency plan for situations like this.

Safe Pilots. Safe Skies. • Pg. 2 • www.asf.org

 traveling machines, but if you absolutely have to be there
on time, be prepared to drive, or buy an airline ticket. Hope for the best, expect the worst
Although optimism may be an admirable quality,
pilots are well advised to take a somewhat more
Beware the “mission” mindset pessimistic view of the aviation world. For example,
“Mission” is a military term: It implies failure, if there’s a chance that the weather will be worse
defeat and (possibly) death if a task is not than forecast, assume that it will be. If your
completed successfully. As civilian pilots, we take pessimistic appraisal proves correct, the
“trips” or “flights”—not missions. The real danger contingency plan is ready and waiting. If the
comes not from failing to get where we’re going, forecast was right, be pleasantly surprised!
but from getting into a mission mindset when the
rewards don’t justify the risks.
Different phases of flight call for different degrees of
anticipation. Consider again the example of an engine
Still, there are times when pilots are justified in going up failure shortly after takeoff. In this case, the pilot must
to “take a look.” Let’s be realistic: Anyone who expects recognize the problem and react within seconds in order
to get much utility out of an airplane, but who’s only to avoid dire consequences. Being “spring-loaded” to
willing to fly when conditions are perfect, will find take action—rather than having to spend precious
general aviation a frustrating endeavor. With that in seconds recognizing what’s happened and contemplating
mind, let’s take a look at how to stay out of trouble a response—can make the difference between a
once you’ve decided to take off. successful forced landing and something much worse.

Beyond Go/No-Go
So you’ve decided to go. Once in the air, you should
enter a continuous decision making cycle. Take the
knowledge and information you already have, combine
it with the new information you’re gathering as you fly,
and actively decide how to proceed. Of course, the
more (and more pertinent) information you’ve gathered
before flight, the better off you are in flight.

The active decision making process can be broken

down into three basic steps: Anticipate, Recognize and
Act. Let’s look at each of these in detail.

Anticipate: What could go wrong?

Effective decision making begins with anticipation—
thinking about what could go wrong before it actually
does. If you’ve already considered the problems most
likely to arise, you’re thinking like a professional, which
For critical situations—engine failure on takeoff, for example—
puts you ahead of the game. think about your reactions ahead of time.

This isn’t to suggest paranoia in the cockpit, but rather On the other hand, an engine failure over open
to stress the importance of maintaining an active mental countryside, at altitude, affords considerably more time,
“lookout” for potential problems before and during and thus requires less detailed forethought.
flight. As an example, think about the takeoff and initial
climb. Have you actively considered the possibility of an Recognize: Has something gone wrong?
engine failure on takeoff and thought about the Avoid problems in flight by paying attention! The
required response? You’ll be much better prepared to sooner you recognize a problem (or potential problem)
handle the actual emergency if it arises. and start thinking about how to handle it, the better.

Safe Pilots. Safe Skies. • Pg. 3 • www.asf.org

 Alert Codes Take note of:
Think of yourself as being at one of three levels of • Changes in cloud type or coverage
alertness at all times during a flight: • Winds or temperature aloft different than forecast
Code White: Alert, but relaxed • Ceiling or visibility deteriorating
Example: cruise flight • Amended forecasts
Code Yellow: A heightened level of alertness • Abnormal engine indications or sounds
Examples: climb and descent • Changes in control response
Code Red: Poised for immediate action • Abnormal electrical system behavior
Examples: takeoff, landing and traffic pattern • Unusual aircraft sounds
Don’t ignore or “brush off” something that
doesn’t seem quite right.
Some problems are obvious. A broken crankshaft will
make itself known immediately. But smaller, more
insidious problems can be difficult to detect if you’re not and seriousness of the problem, the rate at which the
paying close attention. Deviations from the weather situation is deteriorating and the available alternatives.
forecast can be quite subtle. Trouble with the aircraft—a Be prepared to act without delay, should the situation
failing electrical system, for example—can easily be warrant it. Pilots sometimes tend to enter a state of
overlooked. denial when faced with a problem. That tendency can
be deadly.

At the risk of oversimplifying, the basic options

available when a problem arises are as follows: 1)
Continue the flight as planned, paying very close
attention to whatever is causing the problem; 2)
Continue the flight, deviating from the plan as
necessary; or 3) Get the airplane on the ground as
soon as practical.

Some problems are easy to overlook.

The key is to stay alert and look for things that don’t
seem normal, or don’t fit with expectations. Pay
attention to anything that gives you “cause to pause.”
These are signals that the situation is changing—
possibly for the worse—and that you may need to
take action.

Act: Evaluate your options and choose one.

Here’s where many pilots fail. They recognize the
problem, but don’t do anything to confront it. Why? It’s
inconvenient. It means a major change in plans, and it Basic options available when a problem arises.
may mean making a difficult or unpleasant choice.
The more serious the problem—or the more limited
Regardless, once you’ve recognized a problem, or your understanding of its seriousness—the more
potential problem, there is a choice to be made. That conservative the choice should be, and the more
choice depends upon a number of factors—the type you should lean toward a precautionary landing.

Safe Pilots. Safe Skies. • Pg. 4 • www.asf.org

 Use ALL the resources at your
disposal—ATC, Flight Watch,
other pilots (including those
on the radio), passengers, etc.
Don’t hesitate to declare an
emergency if you’re in
trouble. ATC has many
resources, and may be able to
assist in a number of ways.
And please: Don’t believe the
Taking prompt action keeps the old myth that declaring an
accident chain from linking up. emergency means filling out
reams of paperwork, or
Political affiliations aside, there’s no shame in being attracting unwanted attention from the FAA. That’s simply
a cockpit conservative. not the case; and even if the FAA takes a special interest
in your situation, it’s not worth the extra risk just to avoid
A timely choice provides many more alternatives. In a meeting with an inspector.
rapidly deteriorating situation, every passing minute robs
you of options—options that likely won’t come back.
Remember: The really tough decisions usually don’t Priorities
“sneak up” on us. They arise because we either fail to Immediate Priorities:
recognize a problem soon enough, or fail to take action 1) Aviate
while there are still viable alternatives. Search the ASF 2) Navigate
Accident Database (www.aopa.org/asf/ accident_data) 3) Communicate
and read a few reports, looking for points at which the Large-Scale Priorities:
accident chain could have been broken. In most cases, 1) Surviving unharmed
the number of missed opportunities is disturbing. 2) Saving the aircraft
3) Reaching your intended destination

The Forgotten Step—Evaluation

Once you’re on the ground, it’s a good idea to Personal Minimums
spend a few minutes going over the flight in your Flying is a highly individual activity. As pilots, we
head. What went right? What went wrong? Were each bring a unique mix of experience, knowledge,
there problems, or potential problems? Could skill and proficiency to the cockpit, and operations
you have anticipated and recognized them that are perfectly safe for one pilot may be quite
sooner? Score yourself. Be as objective as hazardous for another.
possible, and don’t grade on the curve. If you do
this consistently, you’ll soon find yourself
catching problems earlier and dealing with them
more effectively.

Emergencies
Suppose that, despite good intentions, everything goes
wrong and you’re faced with a critical decision. The
absolute, number one priority should be getting on the
ground alive and unharmed. In some cases, that might
mean making a precautionary off-airport landing, even if
it involves damaging or destroying the aircraft. That’s
why we have aircraft insurance. Airplanes can be
replaced—people cannot. In a critical situation, help is as close as your radio.

Safe Pilots. Safe Skies. • Pg. 5 • www.asf.org

 It’s all up to you. For that reason, it’s a good idea to
Accident Rates by Time in Type develop a set of personal minimums. Unfortunately, there’s
50% no easy formula to help you do this: The best advice is
% of Total simply to be honest with yourself. Think of the things that
41.6%
40.7%

% of Fatal would make you uncomfortable in an airplane. Would you

feel safe flying VFR with a 1,500-foot ceiling and four miles
40%
visibility? If not, how much would the weather have to
improve before you did? To help you get started, we’ve
provided a worksheet with some basic recommendations.
30%
Consider this purely as a starting point for developing your
own, personalized list. For some pilots, our
19.8%

recommendations may be far too conservative—for

20%
15.1%

others, not conservative enough.

14.5%

13.2%
As a general rule, the more experience a pilot has, the
8.9%

7.0%
10%
6.4%

more aggressive he or she can be. In practice, though,

4.7%
4.7%
4.4%
3.6%

experienced pilots usually become more conservative as

2.5%

2.3%

2.3%
2.3%

1.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.2%

0.0%

they rack up flight hours. They’ve made mistakes, and

0% seen the consequences of bad decisions.
00
00
0

0
0

90 00
0
0

30

50
20

40

70

80
60
10

10
10
9
1-

1-
1-

1-

1-

1-

1-
1-
0-

1-

>
20

40
10

30

60

70

80
50

Use your personal minimums list as a tool to help you

anticipate the factors that might affect your flight. Avoid the
For Part 91 operations, the FAA has taken a fairly pressure to decrease your minimums for a particular flight,
pragmatic approach to pilot decision making. The FAA but bear in mind that the list should be a living
tells pilots that they have to maintain a degree of document—one that changes to reflect your current skills
proficiency, fly a mechanically sound aircraft, plan flights and experience. It’s also important to keep the “big
thoroughly, maintain a certain distance from picture” in mind. If several factors are close to, but not
terrain/obstructions, and fly only in weather that meets below, minimums, it’s probably wise to stay on the ground.
basic criteria. Beyond that—and so long as they are not Alternately, if a single factor is slightly below minimums
“careless or reckless”—pilots are left to make their own while everything else is perfect, it may be safe to go.
choices about what’s prudent.

Personal Minimums Checklist and FAA requires: None

ASF recommends: Three hours in same or similar
Recommendations make/model within previous three months.
(For use when acting as pilot in command)
Operational Currency / Proficiency
General Aircraft Experience Flight review within previous____ months
Single-engine fixed-gear: ___hours in past ___ FAA requires: 24 calendar months (FAR 61.56c)
months ASF recommends: 12 calendar months. If instrument
FAA requires: None rated, the flight review should include an instrument
ASF recommends: Three hours in any make/model within proficiency check, regardless of legal instrument
previous three months. currency.

Single-engine retractable-gear: ___ hours in past ___ Day landings: ___ landings in previous ____ days
months FAA requires: Three landings in previous 90 days when
FAA requires: None carrying passengers (FAR 61.57a) Tailwheel — three full
ASF recommends: Three hours in any retractable-gear stop landings in any tailwheel make/model within
make/model within previous three months. previous 90 days.
ASF recommends: One landing in previous 30 days, in
Multiengine: ___ hours in in past___ months addition to the FAA requirement. Tailwheel—three full-

Safe Pilots. Safe Skies. • Pg. 6 • www.asf.org

 stop landings in any tailwheel make/model within IFR Weather - Arrival: Ceiling ____ feet
previous 30 days. Visibility ____ miles

Night landings: ___ night landings in previous ___ days FAA requirement: Instrument approach minimums
FAA requires: Three full-stop night landings in previous ASF recommends:
90 days when carrying passengers (FAR 61.57b). • Precision approach: 400 feet and one mile
ASF recommends: One full-stop night landing in previous • Non-precision approach: Lowest minimums applicable
30 days, in addition to the FAA requirement. Tailwheel— plus 200 feet and one-half mile (i.e., if approach
three full-stop landings at night in any tailwheel minimums are 450 feet and one mile, personal
make/model within previous 30 days. minimums would be 650 feet and 1.5 miles)
• Circling approach: Published minimums or 1,000 foot
IFR: ___ instrument hours and ___ instrument ceiling and three miles, whichever is higher
approaches in the past ___ days/months
FAA requires: Six instrument approaches, intercepting, Crosswind component: No more than ___ knots
tracking and holding in previous six calendar months FAA requires: None
(FAR 61.57c). ASF recommends: 75 percent of maximum
ASF recommends: In addition to the FAA requirement, demonstrated crosswind. Example: 16 (knots max
one hour of actual or simulated instrument flight and one demonstrated crosswind) x .75 = 12 knots
instrument approach in previous 30 days. Also, an recommended crosswind component. Tailwheel—no
instrument proficiency check (IPC) within the previous six more than 10 knots of crosswind.
calendar months.
Fuel Reserve
Weather Conditions Fuel Reserve: Day VFR: ___ minutes/hour(s)
VFR Weather: Ceiling ____ feet Night VFR: ___ minutes/hour(s)
Visibility ____ miles IFR: ___ minutes/hour(s)
FAA requires: Airspace-dependent—no less than clear of FAA requires:
clouds, one mile visibility (FAR 91.155). Day VFR: 30 minutes
ASF recommends: Outside traffic pattern—no less than Night VFR: 45 minutes
2,000 foot ceiling and five miles visibility. Within traffic Day or Night IFR: 45 minutes
pattern—1,500 foot ceiling and three miles. Use caution (FAR 91.151, 91.167)
in mountainous terrain. ASF recommends: Minimum 60 minutes for all, assuming
that all contingencies have been accounted for (diversions,
IFR Weather - Departure: Ceiling ____ feet holding, headwinds, etc.). In other words, the airplane
Visibility ____ miles should land with at least one hour of fuel in the tanks.
FAA requires: None
ASF recommends: Local instrument approach Other:
minimums, so that an immediate return can be made. Rest: ___ hours of rest (sleep and relaxation) in
If the airport has no instrument approach, use previous 24 hours
minimums from the nearest suitable airport with an FAA requires: None
instrument approach within 15 minutes. ASF recommends: 10 hours

Summary
There’s no real secret to making good aeronautical decisions: There will always be some risk in flying, and it’s
• Leave yourself an “out” before the flight in order to possible to encounter a problem that you could not
avoid external (or self-imposed) pressure to go. have foreseen. Such situations, however, are
• In the air, actively anticipate the things most likely to statistically rare. If you pay attention to the things
go wrong. that are most likely to cause trouble (weather,
• Maintain an active mental and physical lookout for maneuvering flight, crosswinds, etc.), and then
things that have gone wrong, then act quickly and handle them in a timely fashion, you’re unlikely to
conservatively to remedy the situation. become a statistic.

Safe Pilots. Safe Skies. • Pg. 7 • www.asf.org

 When It Comes to Air Safety, Pilots Turn to One Source:
www.asf.org
There’s always something new that today’s pilots need to know. To keep up
with the ever-changing world of general aviation, you need a resource that
evolves with it.

At www.asf.org, the AOPA Air Safety Foundation is evolving at the speed of

aviation. Log on today to take advantage of all the FREE tools at the
Internet’s premier aviation online safety center — where there is always
something new.

FREE! Available 24 Hours a Day, 7 Days a Week!

Safe Pilots. Safe Skies:

Every Pilot’s Right … Every Pilot’s Responsibility

The AOPA Air Safety Foundation

421 Aviation Way
Frederick, MD 21701-4798
1.800.638.3101

Copyright 2006, AOPA Air Safety Foundation

421 Aviation Way, Frederick, MD 21701
800-638-3101
www.asf.org
asf@aopa.org

Publisher: Bruce Landsberg

Editors: Kevin D. Murphy, Jennifer Storm
Writer: Brian D. Peterson

SA24-10/06
Edition 2

Safe Pilots. Safe Skies. www.asf.org