PRICE TARGET REVISION | COMMENT

125 WEEKS 22JUN07 - 04NOV09

100.00
Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX HI-27FEB09 106.04
LO/HI DIFF 268.25%
NOVEMBER 5, 2009
80.00
60.00

40.00
CLOSE 60.66 Gabriel Resources Ltd. (TSX: GBU)
2007 2008 2009
JJ A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N
LO-30NOV07 28.80
Increasing Target on Higher Gold Price Forecast;
HI-13JUL07 4.95

4.00
HI/LO DIFF -80.00%
Permitting Still Stalled
3.00

CLOSE 2.30
2.00
Sector Perform
1.00 LO-12DEC08 0.99
Speculative Risk
20000
15000 Price: 2.30 Price Target: 2.60 ↑ 2.30
10000
PEAK VOL. 25266.4
VOLUME 3113.1 Implied All-In Return: 13%
5000
Shares O/S (MM): 307.0 Market Cap (MM): 706
Dividend: 0.00 Yield: 0.0%
Float (MM): 173.0 Avg. Daily Volume (MM): 0.73
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Debt to Cap: 0%
Newmont Canada Limited owns an estimated 16.4% of the outstanding stock and two
Stephen D. Walker (Analyst) Institutional Investors own 39.98%.
(416) 842-4120; stephen.walker@rbccm.com

Valerie Blume, CFA (Associate)

(416) 842-7886; valerie.blume@rbccm.com
Event
We are updating our model with our new gold price forecasts and our revised
FY Dec 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E timeline for the Rosia Montana project.
CFPS - FD (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.07)
Prev. (0.02) Q3/09 Results - Stable Financial Position:
P/CFPS NM NM NM NM
• Gabriel reported Q3/09 EPS of negative $0.02 and CFPS before changes in
EPS (Op) - FD (0.02) (0.04) (0.04) (0.07)
Prev.
working capital of negative $0.02. Gabriel ended the quarter with $118 million
(0.02)
P/E NM NM NM NM in cash and short term investments, $96 million in working capital and no debt.
CFPS - FD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Rosia Montana Timeline - EIA Process Still Stalled:
2008 0.00A 0.00A 0.00A (0.03)A • Fragile Political Situation: In early October '09, Romania's coalition
2009 (0.02)A (0.01)A (0.02)A (0.01)E
EPS (Op) - FD
government consisting of the Democratic-Liberal (PDL) and the Social
2008 0.00A 0.00A 0.00A (0.02)A Democrat (PSD) parties collapsed. An interim government was then
2009 (0.03)A (0.01)A (0.02)A (0.01)E established, which also fell after a parliamentary no-confidence motion was
Quarterly figures may not add to annual estimates due to passed. Gabriel believes it is unlikely that a new government will achieve
changes in share count during the forecast period.
the confidence of parliament until December 6/09, when the presidential
All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
election is held.
• Under our current timeline, we assume the Technical Assessment Committee
(TAC) and EIA process will be complete by late 2010, with expectations for
production by 2013 (Exhibit 1). We estimate annual life-of-mine production of
535k oz at average total cash costs of US$395/oz and project capex of US$1.0
billion.
CEO Search Ongoing:
• At this point, the company does not appear to have had any success in
recruiting a new President/CEO since Alan Hill's resignation in March 2009.
While it is still early in the recruitment process, we would hope to see this
position filled by early 2010 once the EIA process looks like it may restart.
Target Increased to $2.60/sh, Sector Perform Rating Maintained:
• Our $2.60/sh target is derived by applying a 0.8x multiple to our 2010E NAV
(Exhibit 2), under our new long-term gold price of $1,000/oz (prior: $950/oz).
The 0.8x multiple is in line with other emerging producers and our 10%
discount rate reflects the permitting risk and uncertainty surrounding the Rosia
Montana project.
• Once the project timeline is more secure, our discount rate and NAV
multiple would improve to 8% and 1.0x respectively, implying a $4.00/sh
target price (Exhibit 3).
Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).
For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see page 6.
November 5, 2009 Gabriel Resources Ltd.

Rosia Montana Project Timeline

In the near term, Gabriel is hopeful of moving forward with the environmental permitting/Technical Assessment Committee (TAC)
process required to re-start the EIA review process. Gabriel is “moving forward” with the amended industrial zone urbanistic plan
(PUZ) after having completed several public participation meetings in which they responded to questions from Hungary pursuant to
the Espoo Convention. The timing for the TAC review, and expected issuance of the project approvals, is dependent on the new
coalition government, which is very focused on the current economic crisis and not the re-establishment of various project permits.
We are taking a cautious view and expect the TAC permitting process for the EIA to begin in Q1/10 and the EIA to be approved by
late 2010 (Exhibit 1).
CEO Search Ongoing: At this point, the company does not appear to have had any success in recruiting a new President/CEO since
Alan Hill's resignation in March 2009. Although interim CEO Keith Hulley is capable of filling this role, it is clear that he wishes to
see someone else drive the permitting and construction process at Rosia Montana. While it is still early in the recruitment process, we
would hope to see this position filled by early 2010 once the EIA process looks like it may restart.

Exhibit 1: Rosia Montana Project Timeline (RBC CM Estimates)

2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
J F M A M J J A S O N D Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Finalize Financing Plan

TAC Restarted / EIA Approval
Purchase Key Surface Rights
Construction Permits
Mine Construction
Gold Production

Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates

Valuation
Our favoured valuation method for feasibility and development precious metals companies is a price-to-net-asset-value (P/NAV)
multiple based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for the mining assets using forward-looking estimates of production
parameters and long-term gold price assumptions. Given the uncertainty with respect to the project’s development timeline, our
discount rate for GBU is 10.0%, which reflects geopolitical risk and a discount for NGO opposition and various legal battles. Our
NAV estimate is calculated by applying this rate to all future cash flows associated with the Rosia Montana project at our current
long-term gold price assumption of US$1000/oz (up from our prior assumption of US$950/oz).
Our target NAV multiple for Gabriel shares is unchanged at 0.8x, in line with the emerging producer target average. In our view,
GBU shares do not offer investors compelling risk-reward potential during the current period of stagnated development and timeline
uncertainty.
Exhibit 2: Gabriel Resources NAV Breakdown (C$)

Disc Rate 2009E 2010E 2011E

Rosia Montana - 80% 10.0% $3.20 $3.05 $3.25

Working Capital $0.29 $0.16 $0.89
Other Resources $0.37 $0.31 $0.27
LT Debt $0.00 $0.00 ($1.44)
Corporate G&A 10.0% ($0.33) ($0.27) ($0.22)
NAV/sh C$3.52 C$3.24 C$2.76
FD Share O/S (MM) 307 357 417
NAV Multiple 0.80x
Implied Target C$2.60

Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates

2
November 5, 2009 Gabriel Resources Ltd.

Sensitivity to Discount Rate and Gold Price Assumptions

Once the TAC process has re-started and construction permits are received, we will likely apply a 1.0x multiple to our NAV and
decrease our discount rate to 8%, suggesting the potential for a $4.00 target price under our long-term gold price assumption of
US$1000/oz (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3: 2010E NAV for Gabriel Resources under Gold-Price and Discount Rate Scenarios (C$)
Long Term Gold Price (US$/oz)
3.244008 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200
4% C$3.73 C$4.86 C$5.99 C$7.13 C$8.26
Discount Rate

6% C$2.96 C$3.92 C$4.87 C$5.82 C$6.77

8% C$2.35 C$3.16 C$3.97 C$4.78 C$5.59 NAV/share
10% C$1.85 C$2.55 C$3.24 C$3.94 C$4.63
12% C$1.45 C$2.05 C$2.65 C$3.25 C$3.85

Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates

3
November 5, 2009 Gabriel Resources Ltd.

Valuation
Our $2.60 target is derived by applying a 0.8x multiple to our 2010E NAV @10% of $3.24/sh. The 0.8x multiple is in line with the
emerging producers in our coverage universe. Once the project permitting and construction timeline is more secure, our discount
rate and NAV multiple would improve to 8% and 1.0x respectively, implying a $4.00 target price.

Price Target Impediment

Similar to other Emerging gold companies with international operations, there is a risk that Gabriel Resources could encounter project
development issues, including delays in the procurement of permits, cost overruns and political risk. Gabriel's dependence on the
viability of Rosia Montana exposes the company to a high degree of project-specific permitting and development risk. Development at
Rosia Montana could continue to be slowed by the company's requirement to relocate the residents of the village of Rosia Montana.

Company Description
Gabriel Resources owns 80% of Rosia Montana Gold Corporation, titleholder of the Rosia Montana gold deposit. Minvest, a
Romanian government-controlled mining company, has a 19% interest, and 1% is held by several local businessmen. Rosia Montana
is one of the largest undeveloped gold deposits in the world, with an estimated 10 million ounces of reserves and 14 million ounces of
resources.

4
November 5, 2009 Gabriel Resources Ltd.
Gabriel Resources Symbol GBU
RBC Capital Markets Share Price C$2.30 Risk Qualifier: Speculative
Stephen D. Walker, (416) 842 4120 Return: 13% Stock Rating: Sector Perform Net Asset Value/Share: C$3.24
Mkt Cap (MM) C$707 Price Target: C$2.60 Discount Rate: 10%

All C$ unless noted Year Ended December 31 All US$ unless noted
RATIO ANALYSIS 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E PRICES/EXCHANGE RATES 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Net Income $mm (4.1) (12.6) (12.7) (30.7) Gold Price $/oz $872 $960 $1,000 $1,000
EPS (f.d.) $/sh ($0.02) ($0.04) ($0.04) ($0.07) Silver Price $/oz $14.99 $14.50 $15.00 $15.00
P/E Multiple X - - - - Copper Price $/lb $3.15 $2.15 $2.50 $2.75
Operating Cash Flow $mm (6.4) (12.4) (12.5) (30.5) Exchange Rate US$/C$ $0.94 $0.88 $0.93 $0.93
CFPS before working cap. (f.d.) $/sh ($0.03) ($0.04) ($0.04) ($0.07) SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS NAV CFPS
Price/CF X - - - - Gold Price ($/oz) 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E
Dividends Per Share $/sh - - - - $800 (43%) (48%) 0% 0%
Dividend Yield % - - - - $900 (21%) (24%) 0% 0%
LTD/(Total Cap) X 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.4x $1,100 21% 24% 0% 0%
INCOME STATEMENT 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E $1,200 43% 47% 0% 0%
Revenues incl. Royalties & Other $mm - - - - MINE/EQUITY PRODUCTION 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Operating Costs $mm - - - - Equity Au Production 000s oz - - - -
EBITDA $mm 2.4 (15.0) (15.0) (15.0) Equity Ag Production 000s oz - - - -
DD&A $mm 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total Cash Costs $/oz - - - -
EBIT $mm 2.1 (15.2) (15.2) (15.2) Share of Reserves, Resources
Interest Expense $mm (3.6) (2.6) (2.5) 15.5 Reserves MM oz 11.5 (Dec 31, 2008)
EBT $mm 5.7 (12.6) (12.7) (30.7) Adj. Market Cap/oz* $/oz C$53
Non-Recurring Items/Other $mm (15.8) - - - Resources (incl. Reserves)** MM oz 13.6 (Dec 31, 2008)
Taxes $mm 9.8 - - - Adj. Market Cap/oz* $/oz C$45
Net Income $mm (4.1) (12.6) (12.7) (30.7) * Market Cap + LTD - Working Cap
Shares o/s (f.d.) MM 255.2 307.3 357.3 417.3 **Resources include measured and indicated resources only
EPS (f.d.) $/sh ($0.02) ($0.04) ($0.04) ($0.07) SHARE DATA
CASH FLOW 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Issued Shares 307 MM 12-month High: C$3.10
Cash Flows from Operating Activities Issued Shares (f.d.) 307 MM 12-month Low: C$0.99
Net Income $mm (4.1) (12.6) (12.7) (30.7) GOLD PRODUCTION PROFILE
DD&A $mm 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Gold Prodn ('000 oz) Cash Costs ($/oz)
Deferred Taxes $mm
600 $400
Other $mm (2.7) - - -
Working Capital $mm 1.5 - - -
Operating Cash Flow $mm (5.0) (12.4) (12.5) (30.5) 500 $350
Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Capital Expenditure (net) $mm (76.2) (70.0) (162.2) (432.0) 400 $300

US$/oz
Other $mm 0.0 - - -
'000oz

Net Investing Cash Flow (76.2) (70.0) (162.2) (432.0)

300 $250
Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Equity Issues (net of costs) $mm - 110.7 142.5 180.0
200 $200
Net Borrowings $mm - - - 600.0
Dividends Paid / Other $mm 1.1 - - -
Net Financing Cash Flow $mm 1.1 110.7 142.5 780.0 100 $150
Net Cash Increase (Decrease) $mm (80.1) 28.3 (32.2) 317.5
Cash at End of Year $mm 72.2 100.5 68.4 385.9
0 $100
BALANCE SHEET 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
Cash $mm 72.2 100.5 68.4 385.9
Total Current Assets $mm 78.4 106.7 74.5 392.0
PP&E & Mining Interests $mm 451.8 521.6 683.5 1,115.3 2010E NET ASSET VALUE (C$)
Total Assets $mm 530.1 628.2 758.0 1,507.3
Current Liabilities $mm 49.1 18.8 18.8 18.8 Disc Rate $mm $/Share
Long Term Debt $mm - - - 600.0 Rosia Montana - 80% 10% $1,088 $3.05
Other Long Term Liabilities $mm 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Working Capital $56 $0.16
Total Liabilities $mm 52.1 21.9 21.9 621.9 Other Resources $113 $0.31
S/Holder Equity $mm 478.0 606.3 736.1 885.4 LT Debt $0 $0.00
Total Liab. & S/Holder Equity $mm 530.1 628.2 758.0 1,507.3 Corporate G&A 10% ($97) ($0.27)
Working Capital $mm 29.3 87.8 55.7 373.2
2010E NAV C$1,159 C$3.24
Source: Company Reports, RBC Capital Markets

5
November 5, 2009 Gabriel Resources Ltd.

Required Disclosures

Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure

Valerie Blume, CFA (i) is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with the NYSE and/or FINRA and (ii) may not be associated
persons of the RBC Capital Markets Corporation and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472
restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Conflicts Disclosures
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total
revenues of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by
investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates.

A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for Gabriel
Resources Ltd. in the past 12 months.

A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from
Gabriel Resources Ltd. in the past 12 months.

A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates received compensation for products or services other than
investment banking services from Gabriel Resources Ltd. during the past 12 months. During this time, a member company of RBC
Capital Markets or one of its affiliates provided non-securities services to Gabriel Resources Ltd.

RBC Capital Markets has provided Gabriel Resources Ltd. with investment banking services in the past 12 months.

RBC Capital Markets has provided Gabriel Resources Ltd. with non-securities services in the past 12 months.

The author is employed by RBC Dominion Securities Inc., a securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Toronto, Canada.

Explanation of RBC Capital Markets Equity Rating System

An analyst's 'sector' is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to
a particular stock represents solely the analyst's view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst's
sector average.
Ratings
Top Pick (TP): Represents best in Outperform category; analyst's best ideas; expected to significantly outperform the sector over 12
months; provides best risk-reward ratio; approximately 10% of analyst's recommendations.
Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over 12 months.
Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months.
Risk Qualifiers (any of the following criteria may be present):
Average Risk (Avg): Volatility and risk expected to be comparable to sector; average revenue and earnings predictability; no
significant cash flow/financing concerns over coming 12-24 months; fairly liquid.
Above Average Risk (AA): Volatility and risk expected to be above sector; below average revenue and earnings predictability; may
not be suitable for a significant class of individual equity investors; may have negative cash flow; low market cap or float.
Speculative (Spec): Risk consistent with venture capital; low public float; potential balance sheet concerns; risk of being delisted.
Distribution of Ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy,
Hold/Neutral, or Sell - regardless of a firm's own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets' ratings of Top Pick/Outperform,
Sector Perform and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same
because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described above).

6
November 5, 2009 Gabriel Resources Ltd.

Distribution of Ratings
RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research
Investment Banking
Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent

BUY[TP/O] 577 48.90 160 27.73

HOLD[SP] 525 44.50 107 20.38
SELL[U] 78 6.60 5 6.41

Rating and Price Target History for: Gabriel Resources Ltd. as of 11-04-2009 (in CAD)

11/15/06 02/05/07 04/26/07 06/01/07 08/08/07 09/13/07 11/07/07 12/07/07 02/27/08 05/22/08 08/07/08
OP:6 SP:6 SP:5.5 OP:5.5 OP:5 OP:4.5 SP:2.5 SP:1.6 UP:1.5 UP:2.3 UP:2.2

0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3
2007 2008 2009
11/05/08 03/05/09
SP:1.7 SP:2.3

Legend:
TP: Top Pick; O: Outperform; SP: Sector Perform; U: Underperform; I: Initiation of Research Coverage; D: Discontinuation of Research Coverage; NR: Not Rated;
NA: Not Available; RL: Recommended List - RL: On: Refers to date a security was placed on a recommended list, while RL Off: Refers to date a security was
removed from a recommended list.

Created by BlueMatrix

References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may include one or more recommended lists or model
portfolios maintained by a business unit of the Wealth Management Division of RBC Capital Markets Corporation. These
Recommended Lists include the Prime Opportunity List (RL 3), a former list called the Private Client Prime Portfolio (RL 4), the
Prime Income List (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Large Cap (RL 7), and the Guided Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8). The
abbreviation 'RL On' means the date a security was placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation 'RL Off' means the date a
security was removed from a Recommended List.
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RBC Capital Markets Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us on request. To
access our current policy, clients should refer to
https://www.rbccm.com/global/file-414164.pdf
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7
November 5, 2009 Gabriel Resources Ltd.
subject company's common equity rated a long-term 'outperform' could be considered susceptible to a Short-Term downward price
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