Technological change and employment :

some results from BLS research

Bureau studies indicate that the pace
of technological change varies
considerably by industry; affected workers
are more likely to be
transferred to new jobs

JEROME A. MARK

Technological change and its impact on the work force have when the economy and employment are expanding. Conse-
become a focus of attention in the United States and abroad . quently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been studying
The innovations include advanced communication systems, technological change and its impact on the work force for a
industrial robots, flexible manufacturing systems, com- long time .
puter-assisted design (CAD, and computer-assisted manu- Assessing the impact of technology is very complex .
facturing (CAM . These modern technologies incorporate Technological changes interact with, and are affected by,
powerful and low-cost microelectronic devices that have the changes in output, consumption patterns, international com-
potential to increase productivity in office and factory pro- petition, and other factors, and the relationship between
duction tasks. They share widespread appeal and are being changing technology and employment is by no means clear.
diffused throughout the world . Although the Bureau's technology studies do not provide
There are, however, conflicting views about the implica- comprehensive answers about any relationship, they do
tions of changing technology for employment . Some experts yield some useful insights . This article reports on some of
say that the pace of technological change is accelerating and the findings of these studies.
that thousands of workers in plants and offices are affected
BLs research on technological change
as laborsaving innovations are diffused more widely . These
experts contend that recent innovations represent a sharp In the mid-1950's, in response to concern about the impli-
departure from earlier changes, and that techniques for cations of developments classified under the general term
maintaining job security will be essential . Other analysts "automation," BLs began an intensive evaluation of the
assert that technological change is beneficial for all groups likely effects of the diffusion of electronic computers and
in our society, that the changes are more evolutionary than other changes. To explore the impact of these emerging
revolutionary in nature, and that technology ultimately technologies on productivity, employment, job skills, and
creates more jobs than it eliminates . labor-management relations, the Bureau conducted a series
Concern about changing technology has been continual of plant-level case studies in industries such as petroleum
over our history-usually increasing during periods of refining and electronics .
higher-than-average unemployment, and abating somewhat Currently, the program's focus is the preparation of a
series of industry technology outlook reports which describe
Jerome A. Mark is Associate Commissioner for Productivity and Technol-
the types of changes gaining importance in key industries,
ogy, Bureau of Labor Statistics . explore the prospects for their further diffusion over the next
decade, and analyze their impact on productivity, employ- large numbers of clerical and kindred workers would be
ment, occupational requirements, and labor-management displaced were voiced by some experts; and that job oppor-
relations . tunities for millions of people, in what is one of the largest
A total of 35 industry reports, covering a cross-section of occupational employment categories, would be curtailed.
the economy, are available in the most recent series . The Yet, over the last three decades, employment of clerical
reports include industries such as motor vehicle manufactur- workers has continued to increase . Table 1 shows the
ing and telephone communications where the pace of changes in employment by occupation for the United States,
change is rapid, as well as industries such as bakery prod- just in the last decade or so when the occupations affected
ucts where change is slow . I These industry reports are based would have been expected to diminish . Over the 14-year
on visits to leading firms, interviews with company and period, one-fourth of the employment growth in the United
union officials and suppliers of new technologies, and a States was found among the professional, technical, and
review of a variety of published sources . related workers. In addition to managers, administrators,
In addition to these reports, the Bureau conducts in-depth and service workers, clerical workers were one of the broad
studies of major technologies that cut across industry lines . occupational groups which experienced rapid growth in both
The impact of the introduction of computer-process control absolute and relative terms .
in six major industries, including steel and petroleum refin- However, significant declines in employment and in their
ing, was one of the innovations examined .' share of total employment were found among operatives and
These studies of major innovations that affect a number of private household workers. The decline among operatives
industries are based primarily on intensive interviews with (such as machine operators) was in part related to the depth
plant managers, technicians, affected employees, union of- of the 1981-82 recession when the number of jobs in
ficials, and others . durable manufacturing, where most operatives work, was
lower than that in previous years . Subsequently, the recov-
Major findings ery in durable manufacturing employment from 1982-86
The pace of introduction of new technology appears to be has been accompanied by at least partial recovery in opera-
increasing in many industries as these industries modernize tive jobs . The recession probably also accounted, at least in
to reduce costs and compete more effectively in domestic part, for the slower-than-average growth among craftwork-
and overseas markets. Our research confirms the general ers, laborers, and transport operatives . The number of
perception that advanced electronic computers, robots, flex- salesworkers increased during the 14-year period, but their
ible manufacturing systems, CAD/CAM, and technologies to share of employment changed very little .
increase productivity in office tasks are being introduced Why did clerical employment increase and not decrease
more extensively in industries, such as steel, motor vehicle as predicted? First of all, normal growth in the volume of
manufacturing, metalworking, and banking, to name a few. clerical work offset jobs eliminated by the computer . Sec-
However, as would be expected in an economy as large
as that of the United States, the pace of change varies by
Table 1 . Employment by major occupational group,
industry . It also varies among plants within an industry-
1972-86
not all have the funds or the volume of business that would [Numbers in thousands]
support the adoption of the latest technologies, which often 1972-1
are very costly . Moreover, each industry has its own story Occupation 1972 1911 Abeclule
and it is not always in terms of robots, computers, and other change ch-ge
advanced technologies that receive the most widespread at-
tention by the media . Conventional changes, including ma- Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82,153 109,597 27,444 +33 .4

terials handling mechanization, larger capacity equipment, Professional, technical, and kindred r . . . . . . . 11,538 18,532 6,994 +60.6
Managers and administrators m . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,081 11,385 3,304 +40 .9
and machines with faster speeds are often major develop- Salesworkers 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,383 10,935 5,552 +103 .1
ments with implications for productivity, employment, and Clerical and kindred workers 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,329 20,055 5,726 +40.0
Craft and kindred workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,867 13,405 2,538 +23.4
job skills .
Operatives, except transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,388 8,892 -1,496 -14 .4
Transport operatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,223 3,583 360 +11 .2
In general, relatively few employees have been laid off be- Laborers, except farm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,242 4,685 443 +10 .4
Farmers and farm laborers 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,077 3,444 367 +11 .9
cause of technological change . The introduction of new Service workers, except household . . . . . . . . . 9,584 13,699 4,115 +42 .9
Private household workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,442 961 -461 -32.0
technology can be consistent with higher levels of employ-
m To improve the comparability of these data, we include accountants with professional occu-
ment and minimal displacement when the economy is pations rather than with managers for 1986 .
strong . Moreover, investment in new technology generally 2 For 1986, cashiers are included with clerical workers rather than with salesworkers.

takes place during periods of economic expansion when 3 The 1986 figures include forestry and fishery occupations .
NOTE : These data are from the Current Population Survey . The data are on a "person"
there is also growth in employment . concept and, therefore, count each individual only once, even if he or she is a multiple jobholder.
When computers were introduced for office data applica- The occupational classification in the household survey was charged in 1983 so that s"
comparable data are rot available for 1983 forward .
tions in the United States in the mid-1950's, predictions that

27
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1987 " Technological Change and Employment

ond, the introduction of computers made possible work that vanced machine tools, robots, computer-process control,
was previously impractical because it would have been too and advanced materials-handling systems increase output
costly and time consuming. This is true in everyday- per employee in key tasks.
management functions where it is now possible to prepare Moreover, the content of jobs is being modified by tech-
reports and analyses that previously were deemed desirable nological change . Although job titles frequently remain the
but too costly . Thus, the computer extended the scope of same while innovation is taking place, over time, employers
activities for many industries, creating employment oppor- have less demand for manual dexterity, physical strength for
tunities . materials handling, and for traditional craftsmanship. In the
In addition, the computer led to job opportunities in new printing industry, for example, electronic composition
occupations such as systems analyst, programmer, key- methods have replaced longstanding craft skills, and em-
punch operator, console operator, and tape librarian. New ployment of compositors and typesetters has declined
industries to manufacture the computer and its related equip- sharply.
ment and furniture were formed, resulting in employment On the factory floor, manual tasks are being eliminated by
for many workers in all types of occupations . Today, thou- computer-process control, advanced materials-handling
sands of workers also are employed in manufacturing equipment, and other innovations, with workers increas-
robots, microelectronic devices, advanced communication ingly becoming monitors of highly mechanized production
equipment, and other technologies that are gaining promi- lines . The reduction in menial, repetitive tasks is welcomed,
nence . but the isolation and constant monitoring associated with
The generally favorable experience in the United States advanced technology in some instances can create new
also results from the various mechanisms to minimize ad- stresses which require worker adjustment .
verse effects on the employees . At firms contacted by BLS,
techniques such as providing advance notice, retraining, and Measures have been undertaken to facilitate the orderly
reassigning displaced employees to alternate jobs have been introduction of new technology . Advance notice to affected
of major importance in easing the introduction of new tech- employees and training programs to provide employees with
nology . the skills required for new and modified jobs have cushioned
The adverse impact of change also is mitigated by the the impact of change in plants studied by BLS. The extent to
relatively long period required before most new technolo- which these measures are successful varies, of course, and
gies are widely diffused throughout industry . Thus, time depends upon the nature and extent of change, the industry
usually is available to plan work force changes, undertake involved, and the climate of labor-management relations.
training, and carry out related measures to maintain job From BLs research, the following three measures emerge
security . as important:

Provide advance notice to workers affected by the new

Industries that lead in the adoption of new technology gen-
technology . Advance notice is essential to assist orderly
erally are among those with above-average rates of produc-
changeover to new methods. It provides time for individ-
tivity growth . Although the specific contribution of an inno-
uals and unions, if the facility is organized, to formulate
vation to productivity growth cannot be isolated from other
plans and to weigh carefully alternative jobs or layoff
factors and measured precisely, technology is widely re-
arrangements . Many companies that install new technol-
garded as a major source of productivity gains, with a reduc-
ogy explain to their employees the objectives for introduc-
tion in unit labor requirements frequently associated with
ing an innovation and some potential impacts on the work
the introduction of robots, CAD/CAM, and other advanced
force.
innovations .
Some companies make extensive efforts to announce
Between 1980 and 1985, output per employee hour in-
early in the changeover that affected employees will con-
creased at an average annual rate exceeding 5 percent in
tinue to have a job with the firm, though not necessarily
such industries as motor vehicle manufacturing and tele-
the one they occupied before the new technology was
phone communications-industries which have modernized
implemented. Advance notice lessens anxiety and resis-
facilities to boost efficiency . These rates were well above
tance to change and can serve as a positive first step to a
the 1 percent per year productivity growth recorded by the
cooperative labor-management approach to maintaining
nonfarm business sector as a whole during the same period .
job security .

New technologies are helping to change the structure of " Coordinate labor adjustment with technical planning .
occupations . Professional and technical workers, computer This technique increases the likelihood that attrition can
systems analysts, and programmers are examples of groups be used to reduce the labor force, thereby minimizing the
increasing in importance . In contrast, the industry technol- hardship of sudden layoffs and the loss of skilled and
ogy studies and BLS projections to 1995 indicate that the productive employees . In a study of planning for change-
growth rate of operatives and laborers is slowing, as ad- over in the telephone industry (BLs Bulletin 1574), for
 example, the telephone companies followed the practice pace of technological change varies considerably by indus-
of projecting their labor requirements a year or two in try and among plants within industries . In most industries
advance. Displacement was minimized by controlling the studied, technological change displaces few workers when
hiring of permanent employees, through the use of tempo- introduced, but is more likely to create dislocations involv-
rary employees, overtime, and related measures, and by ing transfer of employees to alternate jobs . The analyzed
estimating attrition rates . As another technique, some changes in technology show professional and technical oc-
companies time the introduction of new technology to a cupations increasing, at least in part because of new technol-
period of business expansion to cushion the impact . ogy, while operative, laborer, and other lower skilled jobs
decline-at least relatively-with the advent of new tech-
" Provide employees with new skills associated with mod-
nology .
ern technology and retrain those displaced for other
The Bureau of Labor Statistics still projects clerical occu-
work. Modern technology requires an increasing amount
pations in total to grow at about the same rate as total
of training . With the computer and similar complex
employment because the shifts in the distribution of demand
equipment, training is becoming more formal, continu-
away from goods production to services-where a larger
ous, and costly, but essential to keep the work force
share of employment is clerical-is expected to enhance the
up-to-date and flexible . Making available training oppor-
growth of clerical occupations . Some occupations associ-
tunities can diminish resistance to change and hasten the ated with durable-goods industries are declining because of
diffusion of new technology with minimum hardship . changes expected in technology or shifts in demand .
In the United States, substantial training in electronics
In many ways, however, the future may be as the past .
and computer-related topics is provided in the private
Professional and technical occupations are projected to grow
sector by business firms, labor unions, and educational
absolutely and relatively, in part because of changes ex-
institutions, including junior colleges . This training is
pected in technology . Demand for lower skilled occupa-
provided both for those already in the labor force and for
tions-laborers, operatives, and farmworkers are projected
new entrants .
to decline as both changes in technology and the distribution
Technological change has important implications for of demand work toward reducing requirements for jobs in
personnel management and collective bargaining, and it
these occupational groups .
has been found that the introduction of computers, ad-
Our tentative conclusion from these observations is that
vanced machine tools, and other innovations requires ad- changing technology is not incompatible with employment
ditional measures to maintain job security . The Bl.s re-
growth . In the short run, dislocations take place, but these
ports show that measures such as advance notice,
are associated as often with changing consumer preferences
retraining, and reassignment of affected employees have or governmental priorities or shifts from domestic to foreign
been successful in facilitating orderly change, suggesting
producers as with the introduction of new technologies .
that others planning to introduce new technology should Although, in many instances, some of the demand shifts
consider the strategies in planning their changes .
may be the result of technology, they are generally slower
than expected .
Conclusions
Still, the pace of technology needs to be kept in perspec-
Several conclusions emerge from the Bureau's research tive . For example, even with 25 years of rapid growth in
on changing technology . Employment in the United States computers, there were, in 1980, still more hand bookkeep-
has experienced and is expected to continue to undergo vast ers in the United States than all workers of the computer-
changes in its industrial and occupational structure . The related occupations combined . F]

FOOTNOTES

I The 35 reports are published in a series of 8 Bt.s Bulletins. The two and its Impact on Labor in Four Industries (BLs Bulletin 2242). See BLS
recent bulletins, published in 1986, contain reports for the following indus- Report 722, BLS Publications on Productivity and Technology, for a com-
tries : lumber and wood products, footwear, hydraulic cement, and whole- plete listing of the other 27 reports available in this series .
sale trade in Technology and Labor Developments in Four Industries (BLS
Bulletin 2236), and tires, aluminum, aerospace,, and banking in Technology 2 Outlook for Computer Process Control (BLs Bulletin 1658) .