2017-11-16 Independent Expert Report E
2017-11-16 Independent Expert Report E
2017-11-16 Independent Expert Report E
9 August 2017
In accordance with our engagement letter dated 8 August 2016, please find
hereby our report as independent expert assisting PCB SA’s committee of
independent directors in the context of a voluntary application of a procedure
substantially similar to the procedure set out in Article 524 of the Belgian
Companies Code related to the proposed contribution in kind of McKesson
Belgium Holdings SPRL in PCB SA by OCP S.A.S.
This report sets out the conclusions of KPMG Deal Advisory, a division of KPMG
Advisory civil CVBA as to our evaluation, from a financial point of view, of the
valuation proposed by PCB SA and Celesio AG in respect of the proposed
contribution. We understand this report will be attached to the report by the
committee of independent directors. We refer to Sections 1 and 2 of our report
for details on our scope and limitations.
Should you wish to discuss the contents of this draft report, or if we can be of
any further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Yours faithfully
1 Introduction
On 15 December 2015, Celesio Holdings Deutschland GmbH & Co. KGaA
entered into a share purchase agreement with the French Cooperative Welcoop,
with the purpose of acquiring all of the shares in Belmedis SA, Alphar Partners
SA, Cophana SA, Espafarmed SLU and a stake of 54.26% in Sofiadis CVBA.
Concurrently, Celesio Holdings Deutschland GmbH & Co. KGaA also entered
into an asset purchase agreement for the European export business of Sofarex
BVBA (together “Medibel”).
For the purpose of acquiring Medibel, a new company was incorporated by
Celesio Holdings Deutschland GmbH & Co. KGaA, i.e. McKesson Belgium
Holdings SPRL (hereafter “McKBH”), a Belgian private limited liability company.
Following the incorporation, all shares except one were transferred to OCP SAS.
The remaining share was transferred to Admenta Deutschland GmbH.
After fulfilment of the conditions precedent, including the approval of the
competition authorities, the acquisition was closed on 2 May 2017.
KPMG Deal Advisory, a division of KPMG Advisory Civil CVBA, (hereafter
“KPMG Deal Advisory” or “KMPG” or “we/our”) was engaged by the committee
of independent directors of PCB SA, made up by Jetma SPRL, represented by
its permanent representative Jean-Marie Limpens, Lumeur SCS, represented by
its permanent representative Luc Meurrens and Delvero SPRL, represented by
its permanent representative Véronique Delens as the independent directors
(hereafter “the Independent Directors”) of PCB SA (hereafter “PCB” or “the
Company”) to assist in the context of the proposed contribution in kind by OCP
SAS, the majority shareholder of the Company, of McKBH 1 into the Company
(hereafter “the Proposed Contribution”).
Although not legally required, the Board of the Company decided to voluntarily
apply a procedure substantially similar to the procedure set out in Article 524 of
the Belgian Companies Code. Accordingly, the Board requested a committee of
three independent directors to review the Proposed Transaction in accordance
with principles substantially similar to the requirements of Article 524 of the
Companies Code.
1
We understand that prior to the contribution in kind, McKesson Belgium Holdings will divest Alphar Partners
to another Celesio Group entity. We note that the proceeds of the sale of Alphar Partners will remain in
McKesson Belgium Holdings and will be part of the contribution.
executed a formal letter of reliance with KPMG Deal Advisory, KPMG Deal
Advisory:
— owes you no duty (whether in contract or in tort or under statute or otherwise)
with respect to or in connection with the Report or any part thereof;
— will have no liability to you for any loss or damage suffered or costs incurred
by you or any other person arising out of or in connection with the provision
to you of the Report or any part thereof, however the loss or damage is
caused, including, but not limited to, as a result of negligence.
If you have not executed a formal letter of reliance with KPMG Deal Advisory
and you wish to rely upon this Report or any part thereof you will do so entirely
at your own risk.
We note that this Report is issued in the English language. If any translations of
this Report are delivered, the English version shall prevail in case of divergence
between the language versions.
Independence
In the context of this engagement, KPMG Deal Advisory has acted
independently from the Company and McKBH. In particular, as at the date of this
Report:
— no audit mandate is being exercised or has been exercised over the last two
years for the Company, McKBH or Celesio AG by KPMG Deal Advisory,
KPMG Advisory or a member firm of the KPMG network;
— neither KPMG Deal Advisory, nor KPMG Advisory, nor a member firm of the
KPMG network is remunerated by the Company, McKBH or Celesio AG in
the context of the envisaged Contribution except for the assignment
described in this Report;
— neither KPMG Deal Advisory, nor KPMG Advisory, nor a member firm of the
KPMG network has a pecuniary interest, other than the remuneration for
KPMG Deal Advisory in the context of the Report, in the (success of the)
envisaged Contribution. No success fee is being paid related to the
execution of the envisaged Contribution;
— neither KPMG Deal Advisory, nor KPMG Advisory, nor a member firm of the
KPMG network is remunerated by the Company, McKBH or Celesio AG in
the context of the acquisition of Medibel by McKBH;
— KPMG Deal Advisory has not executed any assignments for the Company or
Celesio AG over the last two years preceding the date of our Report. Over
the course of the last two years preceding the date of our Report KPMG
Advisory civil CVBA has performed some assignments, i.e. related to internal
audit, management consulting or IT advisory for Celesio AG or the company;
however none of these could be considered material and having an impact
on the independence of KPMG Deal Advisory in the context of this Report.
Tasks performed
In connection with this engagement, we have, amongst others:
— Performed our own analysis with regard to the stand-alone market value of
the Company and of McKBH, by selecting appropriate valuation
methodologies, applying the selected methodologies and considering the
valuation results;
— Conducted other financial analyses as we deemed appropriate;
— Formed a conclusion on the reasonableness of the relative valuation
proposed to be used in the Proposed Contribution, by comparing it to our
resulting valuation ranges and relative valuations.
The findings from our analysis have been summarised in the following sections.
3 Our understanding of the proposed contribution perimeter
PCB is a Belgian listed company, headquartered in Brussels and active as a
pharmaceutical wholesale distributor serving retail clients (pharmacies) in
Belgium, through its operational subsidiary Pharma Belgium SA.
It is proposed that all the shares (1,240,371) in McKBH will be contributed into
PCB. McKBH is a holding company specifically set up for the acquisition of
Medibel. As at the date of this Report, McKBH does not have any activities on
its own and is almost entirely equity financed.
We understand that prior to the contribution in kind, McKB will divest Alphar
Partners SA to another Celesio Group entity. We note that the proceeds of the
sale of Alphar Partners will remain in McKB and will be part of the Proposed
Contribution. The subsidiaries of McKBH at the date of the Proposed
Contribution will be the following:
— Belmedis (100%): wholesale distributor of pharmaceutical products to
pharmacies, laboratories and hospitals in Belgium. Belmedis is the second
largest wholesale distributor in Belgium, after Febelco. The company owns
six warehouses of which 5 are fully automated. It also holds a financial
interest in one pharmacy;
— Sofiadis (54.26%): a buying cooperation of Belgian pharmacists (ca. 430
independent pharmacists which hold a 45.74% stake). Sofiadis sources the
products for its members and sells them to Medibel with a 5.0% margin.
Medibel then organises delivery and logistical services. Occasionally
Sofiadis sources from Belmedis.
— Cophana (100%): a logistics company (pre-wholesaler) offering services in
warehousing, preparation of orders, delivery to pharmacists and distributors
and invoicing and debt collection for laboratories. Cophana leases a 6,000m²
temperature controlled warehouse;
— Espafarmed (100%): Spanish agent sourcing Spanish products;
— Sofarmex (100%): an entity established with the specific purpose of acquiring
selected Sofarex assets related to the European Economic Area activities of
Sofarex (mainly exporting Spanish products to the EU).
OCP SAS, McKBH, PCB form part of a group of companies controlled by Celesio
AG and ultimately controlled by US based company McKesson Corporation.
Under a DCF approach, forecasted cash flows are discounted back to the
present date, generating a net present value for the cash flow stream of the
business. A terminal value at the end of the explicit forecast period is then
determined and that value is also discounted back to the valuation date to
give an overall value for the business.
The rate at which the future cash flows are discounted (“the discount rate”)
should reflect not only the time value of money, but also the risk associated
with the business’ future operations. This means that in order for a DCF to
produce a sensible valuation figure, the importance of the quality of the
underlying cash flow forecasts is fundamental. The discount rate most
generally employed is the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (“WACC”),
reflecting an optimal as opposed to actual financing structure, which is
applied to unleveraged cash flows and results in an value for the business
(“Enterprise Value” or “EV”, see 4.1.3).
— A market approach, typically capitalised earnings, with reference to
comparable companies (“CoCo”) or comparable transactions (“CoTrans”).
reasonable proxy for market value. This is generally done via a volume
weighted average price (“VWAP”) analysis.
— A cost approach, generally (corrected) net assets. Under a net assets
approach, total value is based on the sum of net asset value plus, if
appropriate, a premium to reflect the value of intangible assets not recorded
on the balance sheet. A net asset value is equivalent for an equity value.
Net asset value is determined by marking every asset and liability on (and
off) the company’s balance sheet to current market values.
A net asset methodology is most applicable for businesses where the value
lies in the underlying assets and not the ongoing operations of the business
(e.g. real estate holding companies), or where the rate of return on the assets
is considered low.
4.1.3 Enterprise or equity value
Depending on the valuation methodology selected, and the treatment of the
business’ existing debt position, the valuation range calculated will result in
either an enterprise value (EV) or an equity value.
An EV reflects the value of the whole of the business (i.e. the total assets of the
business including fixed assets, working capital and goodwill/intangibles) which
accrues to the providers of both debt and equity.
An equity value reflects the value that accrues to the equity holders.
To compare an EV to an equity value, the level of net debt must be deducted
from the enterprise value.
5 Valuation proposed by the Company and Celesio
5.1 Selected valuation methods
5.1.1 McKBH
PCB and Celesio have adopted a (corrected) net assets approach to determine
the equity value of McKBH, whereby the value of the shareholding in Medibel is
included based on two methodologies:
— Based on the cost of the recent transaction;
— Using a DCF approach.
As a cross-check for the value of the activities (EV) of McKBH, PCB and Celesio
have also performed a capitalised earnings analysis, based on CoCos and
CoTrans.
5.1.2 PCB
In determining the equity value of PCB, PCB and Celesio have selected the DCF
approach as the primary valuation method.
In addition, the following methods have been applied as a cross-check:
— Net assets approach
— Share price based analysis
between FY19 and FY26 reaching its long term growth rate of 1.0% as of
FY27.
— Gross profit as % of turnover is expected to remain constant over the
business plan forecast period at 5.9%, which is in line with historical
performance. Medibel’s EBITDA margin is expected to slowly increase
during the first couple of years of the forecast period from 1.1% to 1.3%
(FY18-FY25) as a result of turnover growth and slightly lower operating
expenses (as % of turnover). The other operating expenses, which are
expected to grow at a 1.0% rate, mainly include salary costs.
— Working capital takes into account a one-off investment in working capital at
the start of the projection period, due to a shortfall of working capital at
closing date, and for subsequent years working capital is estimated at 6.0%
of turnover.
— Yearly capex ranges between €0.5m and €0.8m.
— For the terminal value (after FY32), a yearly sales growth of 1%, a gross
margin of 5.9% and an EBITDA margin of 1.3% has been adopted.
The EV of the abovementioned entities has been calculated by discounting the
Free Cash Flows to the Firm (“FCFF”) at a Weighted Average Cost of Capital
(“WACC”) of 7.0%. The cost of equity component of the WACC has been
estimated based on the generally accepted Capital Asset Pricing Model
(“CAPM”). This has resulted in a base case DCF value of €71.8m.
PCB and Celesio have also performed a sensitivity analysis, using a WACC
ranging from 6.5% to 7.5% with the terminal growth rate of 1%. The resulting
range is €66.1m to €78.6m.
In order to arrive at an equity value for Medibel, PCB and Celesio have taken
the following steps:
— Deducted the value attributable to the minority shareholders of Sofiadis;
— Deducted the net debt of Belmedis, Cophana, Sofiadis and Espafarmed;
— Added the book value of the investment in Janus SA since its cash flows are
not included in the business plan;
— Added the equity value of Sofarmex.
In McKBH’s balance sheet, the book value of the shares in the Medibel entities
is then is then replaced by the calculated market value of the shares, amounting
to €49.3m in the base case, resulting in a corrected net assets value of €76.4m.
5.2.1.3 Cross-check using multiples
In line with general market practice, PCB and Celesio have performed a cross-
check of the EV resulting from the DCF approach. Based on the financial
information available for a selection of comparable listed companies and of
comparable transactions, an EV range has been calculated based on EBITDA
multiples. PCB and Celesio have concluded that:
— the base case DCF value of €76.4m falls within the EV range based on the
CoTrans but is higher than the high end of the EV range based on CoCos;
© 2017 KPMG Advisory CVBA/SCRL. All rights reserved. 11
Committee of independent directors
Report of the Independent Expert
9 August 2017
— the value based on the net assets approach (cost of the acquisition) falls
within both these ranges.
5.2.2 PCB
5.2.2.1 DCF valuation
PCB’s DCF valuation with valuation date 30 April 2017 has been based on the
business plan as developed by management of PCB, together with Celesio. The
financials for the year ending 31 March 2017 have been used as a basis for this
stand-alone plan, which is built on the key assumption that PCB will be able to
gain back market share and restore profitability to levels comparable to Medibel,
after which a similar growth pattern is followed.
We understand that the basis for and the main assumptions in PCB’s business
plan covering the period FY18 (31 March 2018) to FY32 are as follows:
— Turnover growth is expected to top 3.7% in FY18 and gradually decline to
1.0% as of FY23. Management believes this growth is achievable as it aims
to win back some of the market share lost following the fire in Evere in 2012.
— Gross margin is expected to remain stable around 5.7% over the business
plan forecast period.
— Staff costs are forecasted to decrease by 0.5% in FY18 resulting from
efficiencies achieved through the move to the new Eppegem warehouse.
Between FY19 and FY22, an annual increase of 0.5% is estimated
(compared to the forecast inflation of 1.5%). Management believes that
additional operational efficiencies can be achieved through a gradual
reduction in the frequency of daily deliveries towards two deliveries a day
(compared to the current three deliveries). A similar trend is observed in the
market.
— The business plan includes an operating lease expense of €0.6m related to
the renting of Laboratoria Flandria NV’s “fonds de commerce”, which
includes Flandria’s customers and its brand name. The rental agreement was
started on 1 April 2010 and amended in 2013 when it was agreed that the
annual lease cost would not be below €0.6m or above €0.8m and would
further be reviewed annually and revised based on PCB’s evolution of EBIT
generated through Flandria’s client base (including realised synergies). In
the business plan it is assumed that PCB will pay a yearly lease of €600k to
Flandria’s owner Pharma Partners NV (no increases foreseen). In FY21 it is
assumed that PCB will acquire the brand name and client portfolio of
Laboratoria Flandria for a consideration of €4.2m.
— The EBITDA margin is expected to increase from 0.5% in FY18 to its long
term EBITDA margin of 1.2% in FY22. The margin improvement is due to the
sales growth forecasted between FY18 and FY22 (turnaround phase) and
expected operational efficiencies resulting in an increase of the EBITDA
margin.
— The business plan of PCB as forecasted by PCB/Celesio assumes an annual
net working capital level of approximately 6.85% of sales. This percentage is
in line with historical net working capital levels (i.e. 6.86% for FY17).
— FY18 and FY19 capex include additional investment expenses related to the
implementation of an ERP system. The estimated costs amount to €1.2m
and €0.3m for FY18 and FY19 respectively. Furthermore, management
believes an annual capex investment of €0.6m to be a sustainable level for
PCB.
— For the terminal value (after FY32), a yearly sales growth of 1%, a gross
margin of 5.7% and an EBITDA margin of 1.2% has been adopted.
The EV of PCB has been calculated by discounting the FCFF at a WACC of
7.0%. The cost of equity component of the WACC has been estimated based
on the generally accepted Capital Asset Pricing Model (“CAPM”). This has
resulted in a base case DCF value of €48.7m.
PCB and Celesio have also performed a sensitivity analysis, using a WACC
ranging from 6.5% to 7.5% with the terminal growth rate of 1%. The resulting
range is €44.2m to €54.1m.
In order to arrive at an equity value for PCB, PCB and Celesio have deducted
net debt amounting to €24.6m, resulting in an equity value for PCB of €24.1m or
€4.31 per share.
5.2.2.2 Net assets
PCB and Celesio has also considered the book value of net assets to be a
reasonable proxy for the market value of equity. The book value of the net assets
of PCB amounts to €21.9m or €3.91 per share. This is based on the draft
unaudited balance sheet as at 31 March 2017.
5.2.2.3 Share price analysis
PCB and Celesio have also considered the market capitalisation of PCB, which
is equal to the number of shares (5,596,520) times the share price. The
valuation range that has been put forward by PCB and Celesio is the following:
— Low end of €26.6m, based on the closing price on the day prior to the
announcement of the transaction (i.e. 24 May 2016);
— High end of €29.4m, based on the average market capitalisation of the
Company during 24 months up to 31 March 2017.
5.3 Proposed values and relative valuation
The following equity values have been retained and proposed by Celesio and
PCB:
— McKBH: €66.6m, which is the value resulting from the net assets approach,
i.e. taking into account Medibel at the cost of acquisition. This value is lower
than the low end of PCB’s and Celesio’s equity value range for McKBH based
on the DCF approach.
— PCB: €24.1m (€4.31 per share), based on the base case of the DCF
valuation. The valuation of the net assets approach has not been retained as
it is generally seen as a floor to the value of a company and does not take
into account the company’s future growth potential.
Further, the results of the share price analysis have not been retained as
Management believes that the share price is not a reasonable indicator for
the equity value of the Company for the following reasons:
- The limited number of publicly available shares of the Company and the
low level of trading activity strongly suggest that the market for the
shares of the Company is illiquid. The price is therefore determined
based on small volumes and infrequent trades;
- In addition to the above, the price has not been driven by a broad
investor base since three shareholders have acquired a major part of
the shares.
Based on a contribution value of McKBH €66.6m and a market value per share
of PCB of €4.31, approximately 15.46m of new shares in PCB would be issued.
As part of our evaluation of the relative valuation that has been proposed, we
have performed our own valuation analysis of PCB and McKBH. This is
discussed in the following section.
6 Valuation analysis by KPMG
6.1 Selected methodologies
6.1.1 McKBH
As mentioned above, Celesio proposes to contribute in kind McKBH (excluding
Alphar Partners) into PCB. As McKBH was specifically set up for the acquisition
of Medibel, has no activities of its own and, besides the shares in the Medibel
related companies has only limited balance sheet items, currently all the
operational value resides in Medibel. On this basis, we have valued the equity
of McKBH as the sum of the EV of Medibel (value of activities) minus the pro
forma consolidated net financial debt position.
In determining the appropriate valuation methodology to be adopted in the
valuation of Medibel, we have considered the following:
— Medibel has recently been acquired by Celesio. The transaction
consideration was the result of negotiations between two unrelated parties.
Hence this transaction would meet the definition of market value (cf. infra).
— Celesio management has argued that the purchase consideration does not
include the value of any potential synergies that could be realised through a
merger with PCB.
— Between the announcement of the acquisition on 15 December 2015 and the
closing of the transaction on 2 May 2017, Medibel has performed in line with
expectations and in line with the assumptions used by Celesio during the
negotiations of the consideration to be paid.
Based on the above, we have considered the purchase consideration to be an
appropriate point of reference. We believe it is also appropriate to adopt a DCF
approach so as to confirm that the purchase consideration is a reasonable proxy
for the market value of Medibel on a stand-alone basis.
(€0.1m) 2. With FY17 EBITDA at €6.2m, the implied LTM multiple for this
transaction is then approximately 10.1x.
We note that at the time of issuing this Report we have not been provided with
consolidated financial statements of McKBH and as such the valuation analysis
for McKBH is based on unconsolidated statements. However, based on further
interactions with management, including discussions on the pro forma
unconsolidated statements providing additional comfort, we have no indication
that receiving the (pro forma) consolidated financials would have a material
impact on our analysis.
6.2.2 Discounted cash flow method
Our DCF valuation, with valuation date 30 April 2017 has been based on the
business plan received from PCB and Celesio. As discussed above, the
discounting at a WACC of the free operational cash flows from the business plan
results in an EV for the activities of the abovementioned companies.
Based on an analysis of the information received from Celesio and our
professional judgement, we have made a number of adjustments to these cash
flows, driven by accounting, tax or other considerations.
Based on the information received from management, our understanding of
company specific factors (e.g. size, forecast risk) and our professional
judgement, we have adopted a weighted average cost of capital (“WACC”) of
7.4%, whereby the cost of equity has been developed using the Capital Asset
Pricing Model.
The resulting EV (base case) amounts to €65.6m, which corresponds to the
value of the activities of Belmedis, Sofiadis, Cophana and Espafarmed, and to
be compared to the base case value of €71.8m resulting from the DCF analysis
by PCB and Celesio.
With a WACC varying between 7.2% and 7.6% and a terminal growth rate
varying between 0.75% and 1.25%, the adjusted EV 3 for Medibel ranges
between €62.0m and €68.2m. With a pro forma consolidated net financial debt
being positive at approximately €4.0m (i.e. net cash), the equity value for
McKBH, based on our DCF analysis, would range between €65.9m and €72.1m.
McKBH Adjusted EV sensitivity McKBH Equity value sensitivity
We refer to the last paragraph of the previous section (6.2.1) regarding the
consolidated financial statements.
After taking into account the net financial debt, the equity value for McKBH
ranges between €56.1m and €69.3m.
In addition to the comparable companies analysis, we have also identified a
number of transactions involving broadly comparable companies during the
period September 2012 and November 2016. Based on the CoTrans analysis,
Medibel’s adjusted EV ranges from €52.3m to € 66.8m (8.6 to 10.9 times LTM
EBITDA). After taking into account the net financial debt, the equity value for
McKBH ranges between €56.2m and €70.7m.
4 Sales multiples (EV/Sales) often display a positive correlation with companies’ profitability (e.g.
EBITDA margin). Applying a sales multiple without verifying the underlying profitability is often
not appropriate. The purpose of the regression analysis is to estimate the EV/sales multiple as a
(linear) function of a company’s profitability.
The equity value of McKBH as proposed by Celesio and PCB is at the low end
of this range.
6.3 PCB
6.3.1 Discounted cash flow method
Our DCF valuation, with valuation date 30 April 2017 has been based on the
business plan received from PCB and Celesio
Based on discussions with management of PCB and an analysis of the
information received from PCB and Celesio, we have made a number of
adjustments to these cash flows, driven by accounting, tax or other
considerations. The impact of these adjustments is insignificant.
Based on the information received from management, our understanding of
company specific factors (e.g. size, forecast risk) and our professional
judgement, we consider a WACC of 7.4% also to be reasonable for PCB.
Discounting the free cash flows to the firm at this WACC, results in a DCF base
case enterprise value of €47.3m.
With a WACC varying between 7.2% and 7.6% and a terminal growth rate
varying between 0.75% and 1.25%, the EV for PCB based on our DCF ranges
between €44.7 and €50.3m. With a net financial debt position of €24.7m, the
equity value ranges between €20.0m and €25.6m.
PCB EV sensitivity Implied FY17 EV/EBITDA multiple
WACC WACC
€000 47 332 7,20% 7,40% 7,60% 7,20% 7,40% 7,60%
Terminal 0,75% 48 054 46 335 44 690 Terminal 0,75% 27,8x 26,8x 25,9x
growth 1,00% 49 139 47 332 45 606 growth 1,00% 28,5x 27,4x 26,4x
rate 1,25% 50 315 48 409 46 593 rate 1,25% 29,2x 28,1x 27,0x
PCB Equity value sensitivity PCB Equity value per share sensitivity
WACC WACC
€000 0 7,20% 7,40% 7,60% € 0 7,20% 7,40% 7,60%
Terminal 0,75% 23 353 21 634 19 989 Terminal 0,75% 4,17 3,87 3,57
growth 1,00% 24 438 22 631 20 904 growth 1,00% 4,37 4,04 3,74
rate 1,25% 25 614 23 708 21 892 rate 1,25% 4,58 4,24 3,91
With 5,596,520 of PCB shares outstanding, the estimated equity value per share
ranges between €3.57 and €4.58 by combining the WACC and terminal growth
rate ranges described above.
6.3.2 Net assets
We have adopted the net asset approach (on a going concern basis) as a cross-
check to the conclusions reached under the DCF approach. Under a net assets
approach, the value of equity is calculated as the sum (net) of the market values
of all assets and liabilities.
We understand from management that no major value corrections should be
performed on the balance sheet items. Hence, the book value of the equity of
€21.9m as at 31 March 2017, could be considered as an indication of PCB’s
market value of equity, albeit probably an indication of the lower end of a range.
6.3.3 Volume weighted average price analysis
6.3.3.1 PCB share price evolution
PCB shares have traded on Euronext Brussels since the early ’90s. Due to low
liquidity, shares in PCB are traded under the “double call auction”, i.e. a price is
generated once or twice a day (if accumulated orders allow to set a price).
The graph below shows the evolution of the PCB share price (and volumes
traded) in the 5 years preceding the announcement date of the proposed
contribution in kind, being 25 May 2016.
Some of the dates and evolutions worth highlighting are the following:
1. 29 August 2012: the Board of Pharma Belgium approved the acquisition of
Sambria and Oostende Pharma. Pharma Belgium had entered into a
business lease agreement with both entities in September 2002. The
acquisition of Sambria and Oostende Pharma puts an end to the rental
agreement.
2. 13 December 2012: Pharma Belgium’s management revised the 2012 sales
estimate downwards following the fire that occurred at Evere warehouse on
the 30th of November 2012. In addition, a rent agreement was contracted on
the 12th of December for a temporary replacement warehouse in Zaventem.
3. Between the beginning of 2013 and February 2014, the PCB share price
increased from approximately €3.0 to €8.0, with higher volumes especially in
October and November 2013. At first sight, there seems to be no immediate
explanation for this increase. The announcement by McKesson Corporation
on 24 October 2013 of its intention to acquire the majority of the shares in
Celesio AG might be relevant in this regard.
4. 27 February 2014: PCB released a (provisional) statement indicating the
relatively poor 2013 results compared to 2012 (sales decrease of 6.0%)
mainly caused by a strong market competitiveness and the fire at the Evere
warehouse. PCB share price dropped by 6.3%.
5. 17 March 2015: PCB published its provisional 2014 results. The decreases
in sales (by 3.95%) and gross margin (by 6.54%) compared to 2013 are
primarily due to the government saving initiatives and the loss in market
share caused by the fire at the Evere warehouse. In light of these results,
PCB decided not to distribute a dividend for 2014.
6. 15 December 2015: An agreement has been reached on the acquisition of
Belmedis by Celesio.
The following graph provides more detail on the evolution of the share price
during the past two years (last pricing date: 9 June 2017).
Days on % of PCB
which PCB trade days vs
Price low Price high VWAP Cumul. Value Cumul. % of issued share was total trading
Period (€) (€) (€) (€k) Vol. capital traded days
1 day 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 1.00 0.02% 1 100%
1 week 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 1.00 0.02% 1 20%
1 month 4.76 5.04 4.82 6.17 1.28 0.02% 3 14%
3 months 4.76 5.60 5.21 59.70 11.46 0.20% 17 27%
6 months 3.81 5.60 4.80 146.79 30.60 0.55% 42 32%
12 months 3.80 5.60 4.37 288.14 66.01 1.18% 84 32%
Note: The percentage of non-trading days is estimated based on the number of days on which trades have taken place and the number of
weekdays in the period
Source: S&P Capital IQ
The PCB share price as at 24 May 2016 was €4.76. According to the information
available on S&P Capital IQ, 1,000 shares were traded that day.
The VWAP for the period of 1 month preceding the announcement date amounts
to €4.82 and for the three months prior, VWAP is €5.21. The VWAP based on
the prices and volumes 12 months preceding the announcement is €4.37.
Looking at the period prior to the announcement of the potential contribution in
kind, approximately 66,000 PCB shares were traded in the 12 months preceding
25 May 2016, representing only 1.18% of the total outstanding shares
(5,596,520 shares outstanding). This trading level is very low compared to the
peer group over the same period (average of 81.7% and median of 32.0%).
The number of days during which PCB shares were traded during the 12 months
prior to the announcement of the Medibel transaction on 25 May 2016 was also
limited. Trades were taking place in only 1 out of 3 trading days during the year
prior to the announcement date, meaning that the double call auction
mechanism often cannot generate a price.
The limited number of PCB shares held by the public and the low level of trading
activity observed indicate that the market for PCB shares is rather illiquid.
6.3.3.3 PCB investors
The table below provides an estimate of the publicly traded shares acquired by
three specific minority shareholders, each time in the period between the dates
of the Annual General Meetings (AGMs).
The percentages have been calculated as the increase in the shareholding net
position of each minority shareholder (1, 2 and 3) divided by the total number of
shares traded between the dates.
We note that these percentages are indicative only as the number of shares held
has to be communicated to the Company a certain time before the annual
general meeting taking place, however we consider these numbers to be a
reasonable proxy.
Over the three periods reported, the number of PCB shares acquired by the
three main shareholders exceeded 60% of total traded shares reaching 84%
during the period May 2013 to May 2014. In 2016, out of the 103,720 shares
traded, it seems that 70,646 shares were acquired by the same three
shareholders.
Based on the above, it seems that in the recent past, the market in PCB shares
has been driven mainly by three minority shareholders increasing their position.
Based on the limited information that we have available, this seems to have
happened at prices that do not seem to have attracted a broader range of
investors.
6.3.3.4 Implied EV / LTM EBITDA multiples evolution
The graph below shows the evolution of the low, high and median EV/LTM
EBITDA multiples of the peer group companies for each quarter since December
2009. The information has been sourced from the S&P Capital IQ database. We
note we have excluded Salus as an outlier at the low end for the entire period.
Further we have also excluded the implied multiple for Oriola in Q3 2011 and for
Amerisource Bergen from Q2 2012 to Q1 2013 as outliers at the high end.
Historically PCB’s implied LTM EBITDA multiple was trading slightly above the
low observed for the peer group. The loss of market share and decrease in sales
caused by the fire in November 2012 combined with the impact of continued
government savings measures resulted in a high volatility of multiples for PCB.
Since end 2015, the implied LTM multiples have traded (well) above the
maximum range observed for the peers. This could be – among others –
indicative for the market’s anticipation of future improvements in profitability (on
a stand-alone basis) and, since May 2016, of potential synergies from a
transaction with Medibel.
6.3.3.5 Conclusion on share price analysis
Based on the above analysis, we do not consider PCB’s market capto be
representative of its stand-alone market value, given the following:
— Low liquidity of PCB shares and (very) limited free float. The share price is
thus determined based on infrequent trades of small parcels of shares.
— Majority of shares traded have been acquired by three shareholders.
Therefore the demand for shares and pricing does not seem to be driven by
a broad investor base.
— Immediately following the announcement of a potential merger with Medibel,
the share price increased by 10%. Hence the current share price might
already reflect the expectation of future potential synergies.
— Implied EV / LTM EBITDA multiples have been well above the peer group
maximum for approximately 18 months now.
6.3.4 Conclusion
In Figure 6 below, the results of our valuation analysis for PCB are summarised.
We have adopted a DCF approach as a primary valuation method and have
cross-checked the outcome of this method using a corrected net assets
approach and a VWAP analysis.
The equity value of PCB as proposed by Celesio and PCB (€24.1m or €4.31 per
share) falls within our range, more specifically slightly above our midpoint.
7 Conclusion
The purpose of our engagement as independent expert, was to assist the
Independent Directors in evaluating, from a financial point of view, the proposed
relative valuation in respect of the Proposed Contribution.
To this end, we have sought to understand the basis for the valuations of PCB
and McKBH as proposed by PCB and Celesio, and have performed our own
valuation analysis, by estimating a range for the market value of the equity in
each company on a stand-alone basis. The valuations proposed by PCB and
Celesio for PCB and McKBH fall within our respective ranges, more specifically
the proposed value for PCB is slightly above the midpoint value of our range
while the proposed value for McKBH is at the low end of our range.
In the table below, we have calculated the relative valuation of the two
companies, i.e. the value per share of McKBH divided by the value per share of
PCB. We have also calculated the number of new PCB shares that would be
issued in the context of the Proposed Contribution, assuming that all 1,240,371
shares in McKBH will be contributed.
We note we have calculated the relative valuation range and the resulting
number of shares to be issued by combining the low end of the valuation range
for PCB with the low end of the valuation range for McKBH and similarly for the
respective midpoints and high ends of the valuation ranges. This results in a
range between 15.75 million and 18.45 million shares to be issued. The number
of shares that is proposed to be issued, based on the valuations proposed by
Celesio and PCB, is approximately 15.46m. This is only slightly below the low
end of this calculated range (1.9% below). We note that one could make other
combinations, this could lead to a slightly different number of shares to be issued
and to a different range.
Relative valuation and shares to be issued
PCB Low Midpoint High
McKBH Low Midpoint High
Pre transaction
PCB equity value (100%) (€) 19 988 963 22 630 615 25 614 186
McKBH equity value (100%) (€) 65 888 703 68 804 483 72 101 886
Based on, and subject to the foregoing, we consider that the relative valuation
is reasonable, from a financial point of view, to the Company for the Proposed
Contribution.
8 Appendices
Appendix I – Sources of information:
— Overview of PCB and Medibel valuation as proposed by PCB and Celesio,
contained in the document ‘Project Nestor – Valuation update, dated 28 June
2017’
— Medibel historical financials as prepared by Deloitte
— Information on Medibel's bad debt allowance.
— General information on Alphar Partners
— Medibel closing financials as prepared by Deloitte
— Draft financial due diligence report on Medibel as prepared by Deloitte dated
6 November 2015
— Valuation of Medibel as proposed by Celesio (document
170628_Medibel_base_case_PP67.0_TV1%_incl.remedies_7.0%WACC.xl
sx)
— Overview of the consideration paid for the acquisition of Medibel
— PCB's draft balance sheet as at 31 March 2017
— Overview of the Flandria business lease expenses
— Overview of PCB shareholder base as prepared by Linklaters
— Proces verbal de la reunion du comite des administrateurs independants du
5 Mars 2010
— PCB Proces verbal de la reunion du conseil d'administration tenue le 18 Mars
2010
— Pharma Belgium Proces verbal de la reunion de du conseil d'administration
tenue le 18 Mars 2010
— Historical P&L financials of Laboratoria Flandria
— General information on Sofarex
— Sofarex consideration split
— Valuation of PCB as proposed by Celesio (document
170623_PCB_1%TV_7.0%WACC_LTPFY18_adjusted)
— Schedule of acquisition payments for Flandria
— Agreed purchase price adjustment for Flandria
— Contrat de location de fonds de commerce dated 31 March 2010
— Rapport du comité d'administrateurs independants de PCB SA assiste d'un
expert independant dated 29 August 2012
— Avenant du contrat de location de fonds de commerce dated 6 December
2013
Appendix II – Glossary:
— AG Aktiengesellschaft
— AGM Annual general meetings
— CAPM Capital asset pricing model
— CoCo Comparable companies
— CoTrans Comparable transactions
— CVBA Coöperatieve vennootschap met beperkte aansprakelijkheid
— DCF Discounted cash flow
— EBIT Earnings before interest and taxes
— EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
— EV Enterprise value
— FCFF Free cash flows to the firm
— FY Financial year
— LTM Last twelve months
— m Million
— McKBH McKesson Belgium Holdings SPRL
— NTM Next twelve months
— SA Société anonyme
— SPRL Société privée à responsabilité limitée
— US GAAP United States generally accepted accounting principles
— VWAP Volume weighted average price
— WACC Weighted average cost of capital
0,30x
0,20x
Medibel
0,10x
-
0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0%
EBITDA margin
McKesson Corporation United States McKesson Corporation provides pharmaceuticals and medical supplies in the United States and internationally.
NEUCA SA engages in the wholesale distribution of pharmaceuticals to pharmacies and hospitals in Poland. It operates through
NEUCA SA Poland
Pharmaceutical Wholesale, Own Brands, Marketing Services, IT Services, and Outpatient Care Clinics segments.
Oriola Oyj operates in pharmaceutical distribution and retail markets in Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The company
Oriola Oyj Finland
markets health and wellbeing products, OTC and traded goods, vitamins, dietary supplements, etc.
Owens & Minor, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a healthcare services company in the United States, the United Kingdom,
Ireland, France, Germany, and other European countries. The company operates through three segments: Domestic, International, and
Owens & Minor, Inc. United States
Clinical & Procedural Solutions. It offers supply chain assistance to the providers of healthcare services; and the manufacturers of healthcare
products, supplies, and devices.
Profarma Distribuidora de Profarma Distribuidora de Produtos Farmacêuticos S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution and retail sale of
Brazil
Produtos Farmacêuticos S.A. pharmaceutical and hospital products in Brazil.
SALUS, Ljubljana, d. d. Slovenia SALUS, Ljubljana, d. d. engages in the wholesale of pharmaceutical, medical, and related products in Slovenia.
Sigma Healthcare Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale and distribution of pharmaceutical products to hospitals
Sigma Healthcare Limited Australia
and retail pharmacies in Australia and New Zealand.
Sopharma Trading AD supplies pharmaceutical products in Bulgaria. The company is headquartered in Sofia, Bulgaria. Sopharma Trading
Sopharma Trading AD Bulgaria
AD is a subsidiary of Sopharma AD.
Comparable transactions
In addition to the comparable companies analysis, we have also identified a
number of transactions involving broadly comparable companies during the
period September 2012 and November 2016, an overview of which is provided
in the table below. Due to the lack of truly comparable transactions in Belgium,
we have considered global transactions within the wholesale distribution of
pharmaceuticals industry.
Comparable transactions
Announcement Target Bidder Seller Deal Value Enterprise Revenue Revenue EBITDA EBIT
date Company Company Company (€m) Value (€m) (€m) Multiple Multiple Multiple
Georgia Enrico Beridze
21/11/2016 ABC Pharmacia LTD
Healthcare and Mikheil 19 34 67 0.49x 7.70x 9.75x
Group Plc Abramidze
18/08/2014 Alloga UK Limited Walgreens Boo UDG Healthcare 82 164 60 2.62x 9.44x 10.5892
(50% Stake) Alliance, Inc. Plc
MASTA Limited;
United Drug Suppl
Chain Services; McKesson UDG Healthcare
18/09/2015 Temperature 408 408 1,363 0.30x 13.58x na
Corporation Plc
Controlled
Phamaceuticals Lt
Penta
Investments
8/08/2013 ACP Pharma S.A Limited; Neuca Mediq NV 103 103 386 0.27x na na
SA
Advent
24/09/2012 Mediq NV International na 1,077 1,077 2,658 0.41x 7.23x 9.70x
Corporation
Mentha Capital
27/04/2011 PBG Group BV Mediq NV B.V. 40 40 61 0.66x na na
Source: Mergermarket
The CoTrans EBITDA multiples range between 8.6x and 10.9x (25% and 75%
quartiles). The implied multiple for Medibel falls within this range.
CoTrans - Medibel enterprise value based on EBITDA multiple
LTM LTM LTM
25% quartile Median 75% Quartile
EBITDA 6,182 6,182 6,182
EBITDA multiple 8.6x 9.6x 10.9x
Enterprise value 52,982 59,435 67,461
Adjusted enterprise value 52,288 58,740 66,767
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