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    Demand Forecast: Quantitative Methods

    Uploaded by

    Mohammad Taha Khan
    The document discusses different forecasting methods including naive, moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing. It provides an example comparing the forecasted demand values generated by each method to the actual demand values over a 12 month period. Metrics like mean absolute deviation are also calculated to measure forecast error for each method when different parameters are applied.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Demand Forecast: Quantitative Methods

    Uploaded by

    Mohammad Taha Khan
    29 views19 pages
    The document discusses different forecasting methods including naive, moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing. It provides an example comparing the forecasted demand values generated by each method to the actual demand values over a 12 month period. Metrics like mean absolute deviation are also calculated to measure forecast error for each method when different parameters are applied.

    Original Description:

    Demand Forecast By different methods

    Original Title

    Demand Forecast

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    The document discusses different forecasting methods including naive, moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing. It provides an example comparing the forecasted demand values generated by each method to the actual demand values over a 12 month period. Metrics like mean absolute deviation are also calculated to measure forecast error for each method when different parameters are applied.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    29 views19 pages

    Demand Forecast: Quantitative Methods

    Uploaded by

    Mohammad Taha Khan
    The document discusses different forecasting methods including naive, moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing. It provides an example comparing the forecasted demand values generated by each method to the actual demand values over a 12 month period. Metrics like mean absolute deviation are also calculated to measure forecast error for each method when different parameters are applied.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 19

    Demand Forec

    Quantitative Methods
    1 Naïve Approach
    2 Moving Average
    3 Weighted Moving Average Please
    4 Exponential Smoothing Select Period Months
    5
    Enter Actual Demand 1 2
    6
    7 Enter Applied Weight for Weighted Movin
    8
    9 Enter Forecasted
    10 Demand
    11
    12
    13
    and Forecast

    Please Enter Your Data Here …


    Enter the value of α 0.1 Multiple value of α 0.5 0.8 1
    3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
    For 3rd For 2nd For 1st
    ght for Weighted Moving Average Period 0.6 Period 0.3 Period 0.1
    Days January
    Weeks Feburary
    Months March
    Quarter April
    Year May
    June
    July
    August
    September
    October
    November
    December
    Naive Appr
    Home

    Months Actual Demand Forecasted Demand 14


    January 1
    Feburary 2 1 12
    March 3 2
    10
    April 4 3
    May 5 4
    8
    June 6 5
    July 7 6 6
    August 8 7
    September 9 8 4
    October 10 9
    November 11 10 2
    December 12 11
    0
    J anuary Fe b u ra r y M a rc h
    aive Approach

    Demand Forecast under Naive Approach

    Fe b u ra r y M a rc h Ap r i l M ay June July A u g u st S e pte m b e r O c to b e r N ove m b e r D ec em b er


    b er N ove m b e r D ec em b er
    Moving A
    Home

    Months Actual Demand 2 Period MA 3 Period MA


    January 1
    Feburary 2
    March 3 1.5
    April 4 2.5 2.00
    May 5 3.5 3.00
    June 6 4.5 4.00
    July 7 5.5 5.00
    August 8 6.5 6.00
    September 9 7.5 7.00
    October 10 8.5 8.00
    November 11 9.5 9.00
    December 12 10.5 10.00
    Moving Average

    Demand Forecast Under Moving Average


    14

    12

    10

    8
    Axis Title

    0
    January Febura ry March Apri l May June Jul y August September Octob
    g Average

    August September October November December


    Weighted Mov
    Home

    Months Actual Demand 2 Period WMA 3 Period WMA


    January 1
    Feburary 2
    March 3 1.75
    April 4 2.75 2.50
    May 5 3.75 3.50
    June 6 4.75 4.50
    July 7 5.75 5.50
    August 8 6.75 6.50
    September 9 7.75 7.50
    October 10 8.75 8.50
    November 11 9.75 9.50
    December 12 10.75 10.50
    ghted Moving Average

    Demand Forecast Under Weighted Moving Average


    14

    12

    10

    8
    Axis Title

    0
    January Feburary March Apri l May June Jul y August September October November December
    ge

    October November December


    Exponential
    Home

    Actual Forecasted Demand Forecasted Demand


    Months when α = 0.1 when α =
    Demand
    January 1 11.00 11.00
    Feburary 2 10.00 6.00
    March 3 9.20 4.00
    April 4 8.58 3.50
    May 5 8.12 3.75
    June 6 7.81 4.38
    July 7 7.63 5.19
    August 8 7.57 6.09
    September 9 7.61 7.05
    October 10 7.75 8.02
    November 11 7.97 9.01
    December 12 8.28 10.01

    10 6

    9.2 4
    8.58 3.5

    8.122 3.75

    7.8098 4.375

    7.62882 5.1875

    7.565938 6.09375

    7.6093442 7.046875

    7.74840978 8.0234375

    7.973568802 9.01171875

    8.2762119218 10.005859375
    8.6485907296 11.0029296875
    Calculation
    10
    9.2
    8.58
    8.122
    7.8098
    7.62882
    7.565938
    7.609344
    7.74841
    7.973569
    8.276212
    8.648591
    Exponential Smoothing

    ecasted Demand Forecasted Demand Forecasted Demand


    0.5 when α = 0.8 when α = 1
    11.00 11.00 11.00
    6.00 3.00 1.00
    4.00 2.20 2.00
    3.50 2.84 3.00
    3.75 3.77 4.00
    4.38 4.75 5.00
    5.19 5.75 6.00
    6.09 6.75 7.00
    7.05 7.75 8.00
    8.02 8.75 9.00
    9.01 9.75 10.00
    10.01 10.75 11.00

    6 3 1

    4 2.2 2
    3.5 2.84 3

    3.75 3.768 4

    4.375 4.7536 5

    5.1875 5.75072 6

    6.09375 6.750144 7

    7.046875 7.7500288 8

    8.0234375 8.75000576 9

    9.01171875 9.750001152 10

    10.005859375 10.7500002304 11
    11.0029296875 11.7500000461 12
    Measuring Fo

    Forecast With Absolute Deviation Forecast With


    Months Actual Demand
    α = 0.1 For α = 0.1 α=
    January 1 11.00 10.00 11.00
    Feburary 2 10.00 8.00 6.00
    March 3 9.20 6.20 4.00
    April 4 8.58 4.58 3.50
    May 5 8.12 3.12 3.75
    June 6 7.81 1.81 4.38
    July 7 7.63 0.63 5.19
    August 8 7.57 0.43 6.09
    September 9 7.61 1.39 7.05
    October 10 7.75 2.25 8.02
    November 11 7.97 3.03 9.01
    December 12 8.28 3.72 10.01
    TOTAL OF ABSOlUTE DEVIATION 45.17

    MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION

    (∑▒| 𝑫𝒆𝒗𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔|" "


    )/𝒏
    suring Forecast Error

    Forecast With Absolute Deviation Forecast With Absolute Deviation Forecast With
    0.5 For α = 0.5 α = 0.8 For α = 0.8 α =1
    11.00 10.00 11.00 10.00 11.00
    6.00 4.00 3.00 1.00 1.00
    4.00 1.00 2.20 0.80 2.00
    3.50 0.50 2.84 1.16 3.00
    3.75 1.25 3.77 1.23 4.00
    4.38 1.63 4.75 1.25 5.00
    5.19 1.81 5.75 1.25 6.00
    6.09 1.91 6.75 1.25 7.00
    7.05 1.95 7.75 1.25 8.00
    8.02 1.98 8.75 1.25 9.00
    9.01 1.99 9.75 1.25 10.00
    10.01 1.99 10.75 1.25 11.00
    30.01 22.94
    Absolute Deviation
    For α = 1
    10.00
    1.00
    1.00
    1.00
    1.00
    1.00
    1.00
    1.00
    1.00
    1.00
    1.00
    1.00
    21.00

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