The document discusses various techniques for human resource demand forecasting. It introduces common forecasting methods like managerial judgement, trend analysis, ratio analysis, computerized forecasting, scatter plots, and regression analysis. It also describes qualitative techniques such as the Delphi technique and nominal group technique. The objective of forecasting is to predict future demand and supply of employees to help a business achieve its strategic goals. While forecasts may be imperfect, blending quantitative and qualitative methods can help develop useful projections.
The document discusses various techniques for human resource demand forecasting. It introduces common forecasting methods like managerial judgement, trend analysis, ratio analysis, computerized forecasting, scatter plots, and regression analysis. It also describes qualitative techniques such as the Delphi technique and nominal group technique. The objective of forecasting is to predict future demand and supply of employees to help a business achieve its strategic goals. While forecasts may be imperfect, blending quantitative and qualitative methods can help develop useful projections.
The document discusses various techniques for human resource demand forecasting. It introduces common forecasting methods like managerial judgement, trend analysis, ratio analysis, computerized forecasting, scatter plots, and regression analysis. It also describes qualitative techniques such as the Delphi technique and nominal group technique. The objective of forecasting is to predict future demand and supply of employees to help a business achieve its strategic goals. While forecasts may be imperfect, blending quantitative and qualitative methods can help develop useful projections.
The document discusses various techniques for human resource demand forecasting. It introduces common forecasting methods like managerial judgement, trend analysis, ratio analysis, computerized forecasting, scatter plots, and regression analysis. It also describes qualitative techniques such as the Delphi technique and nominal group technique. The objective of forecasting is to predict future demand and supply of employees to help a business achieve its strategic goals. While forecasts may be imperfect, blending quantitative and qualitative methods can help develop useful projections.
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METHODS AND TECHNIQUES OF
FORCASTING
INTRODUCTION Human resource demand forecasting is the process of estimating the future quantity and quality of people required. The basis of the forecast must be the annual budget and long-term corporate plan, translated into activity levels for each function and department. In a manufacturing company, the sales budget would be translated into a production plan giving the number and type of products to be produced in each period. From this information, the number of hours to be worked by each skilled category to make the quota for each period, would be computed.
OBJECTIVE Forecasting is a systematic process of predicting demand and supply. Human resources forecasting seeks to secure the necessary number and quality of employees for a business to achieve strategic goals. Although forecasting techniques can be complex and full of statistical calculations, a more practical approach is just as effective and less difficult for a small business to implement. Demand and supply forecasting techniques use sales or production projections for the coming year as well as quantitative and qualitative assessments. Quantitative assessments identify “how many” and “when,” while qualitative assessments identify desired personal qualities and role-related qualifications.
Advantages of Forecasting Methods
Businesses employ a diverse array of forecasting methods to evaluate potential results stemming from their decisions. The most notable advantage of quantitative forecasting methods is that the projections rely on the strength of past data. The chief advantage of qualitative methods is that the main source of data derives from the experiences of qualified executives and employees. The vast majority of business owners blend the hard data with personal impressions to develop useful forecasts.
Disadvantages of Forecasting The primary disadvantage of forecasting is the same as that of any other method of predicting the future: No one can be absolutely sure what the future holds. Any unforeseen factors can render a forecast useless, regardless of the quality of its data. Also, some forecasting methods may use the same data but deliver widely different forecasts. For instance, one forecasting method can show that interest rates will rise, while another will illustrate that rates will hold steady or decline.
TECHNIQUES There are several techniques use for forecasting 1. Managerial Judgment 2. Trend Analysis 3. Ratio Analysis 4. Scatter Plot 5. Computerized Forecast 6. Work Study Technique 7. Delphi technique 8. Regression Analysis 9. Econometric Models
10. Nominal Group Technique
11. H R Budget and Planning Analysis 12. Scenario Forecasting 13. Workforce Analysis 14. Workload Analysis 15. Job Analysis
Managerial Judgment This techniques is very simple. In this, manager sit together, discuss and arrive at a figure which would be the future demand for labor. The technique may involve a ‘bottom-to-top’ or ‘top-to-bottom’ approach. Trend Analysis Method which forecast employments requirements on the basis of some organizational index and is one of the most commonly used approaches for projecting HR demand. 1. Business Factor Annual Volume of Sales. 2. Total Number of Employees. 3. Compare the Productivity Ratio. 4. Calculate Human Resources demand. 5. Forecasted Human Resource Requirements.
Ratio Analysis
Another approach , Ratio analysis , means making forecasts based on the ratio between. 1. Some causal factor (like sales volume) 2. The number of employees required
Computerized Forecast
The determination of future staff needs by projecting a firm’s sales, volume of
production, and personnel required to maintain this required volume of output, using computers and software packages. Employers also used computerized system to personnel requirements . Scatter Plot A graphical method used to help identify the relationship between two variables. A scatter plot is another option. HR planner can use scatter plots to determine whether two factors – measure of business activity and staffing levels are related.
Delphi Technique
This technique calls for a facilitator to solicit and collate written, expert opinion on labor forecast. After answer are received, a summary of the information is developed and distributed to the expert, who are than requested to submit revised forecast. Expert never meet face-to-face, but rather communicate through the facil.
Regression Analysis
Regression analysis identifies the movement of two or more inter-related series.
It is used to measure the changes in a variable as a result of changes in other variables. Regression analysis determines the relationship between Y variables such as the number of employees and X variables such as service delivery by actually measuring the relationship that existed in the past. Use of the method begins with a series of observation each costing of a value for the Y variable plus a value for each X variable.
Nominal Group Technique
The nominal group technique is a decision making method for use among groups of many sizes, who want to make their decision quickly, as by a vote, but want everyone’s opinions taken into traditional voting. I. Introduction and Explanation II. Silent Generation of Ideas III. Sharing Ideas IV.Group Discussion V. Voting and Ranking
H R Budget and Planning Analysis
There are several other ways by which planners can estimate the future demand for human resources. One approach is through budget and planning analysis. When new ventures complicate employment planning. Planners can use new venture analysis.
Scenario Forecasting Scenario techniques is used to explore the likelihood of possible future developments and changes and to identify the interaction of uncertain future trends and events. Preparation of Background Selection of Critical Indicators Establishing Past Behavior of Indicators Verification of Potential Future Events Forecasting the indicators Writing of scenarios
Workforce Analysis
It means, to determine the rate of influx and out flow of employee. It is through this analysis one can calculate the labor turnover rate, absenteeism rate etc.
Job Analysis
Job analysis helps in finding out the abilities or skills required to do the jobs efficiently. A detailed study of jobs is usually made to identify the qualification and experience required for them
