Field Guide To Probability Random Processes and Random Data Analysis
Field Guide To Probability Random Processes and Random Data Analysis
Field Guide to
Probability,
Random Processes, and
Random Data Analysis
Larry C. Andrews
Ronald L. Phillips
Field Guide to
Probability,
Random Processes, and
Random Data Analysis
Larry C. Andrews
Ronald L. Phillips
Andrews, Larry C.
Field guide to probability, random processes, and random
data analysis / Larry C. Andrews, Ronald L. Phillips.
p. cm. – (Field guide series)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8194-8701-8
1. Mathematical analysis. 2. Probabilities. 3. Random
data (Statistics) I. Phillips, Ronald L. II. Title.
QA300.A5583 2012
519.2–dc23
2011051386
Published by
SPIE
P.O. Box 10
Bellingham, Washington 98227-0010 USA
Phone: +1.360.676.3290
Fax: +1.360.647.1445
Email: books@spie.org
Web: http://spie.org
First Printing
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Larry C. Andrews
Professor Emeritus
Townes Laser Institute
CREOL College of Optics
University of Central Florida
Ronald L. Phillips
Professor Emeritus
Townes Laser Institute
CREOL College of Optics
University of Central Florida
Table of Contents
Conditional Probabilities 18
Conditional Probability: Independent Events 19
Conditional CDF and PDF 20
Conditional Expected Values 21
Example: Conditional Expected Value 22
Table of Contents
Random Processes 48
Random Processes Terminology 49
First- and Second-Order Statistics 50
Stationary Random Processes 51
Autocorrelation and Autocovariance
Functions 52
Wide-Sense Stationary Process 53
Example: Correlation and PDF 54
Time Averages and Ergodicity 55
Structure Functions 56
Cross-Correlation and Cross-Covariance
Functions 57
Power Spectral Density 58
Example: PSD 59
PSD Estimation 60
Bivariate Gaussian Processes 61
Multivariate Gaussian Processes 62
Examples of Covariance Function and PSD 63
Interpretations of Statistical Averages 64
Random Fields 65
Random Fields Terminology 66
Mean and Spatial Covariance Functions 67
1D and 3D Spatial Power Spectrums 68
2D Spatial Power Spectrum 69
Structure Functions 70
Example: PSD 71
Table of Contents
Equation Summary 85
Bibliography 90
Index 91
Var Variance
Var[x| A ] Conditional variance
x( t) Time average
z∗ Complex conjugate of z
γ( c, x) Incomplete gamma function
Γ( x) Gamma function
δ( x − a) Dirac delta function (impulse function)
µk k’th central statistical moment
µ̂( t) Estimator of mean value
σ2 , σ2x Variance
τ Time difference t2 − t1
Φx ( s ) Characteristic function
|| Absolute value
∈
µ ¶
Belonging to
a
Binomial coefficient
n
〈〉 Ensemble average
{} Event
∩ Intersection
1. 0 ≤ Fx ( x) ≤ 1, −∞ < x < ∞
2. Fx (a) ≤ Fx (b), for a < b
3. Fx (−∞) = 0, Fx (∞) = 1
Z b
Pr(a < x ≤ b) = Fx ( b) − Fx (b) = f x ( u) du
a
f x ( x ) ≥ 0, −∞ < x < ∞
That is, the total area under the PDF curve is always
unity.
For a discrete RV x that takes on values xk with
probabilities Pr(x = xk ), k = 1, 2, 3, . . . , it follows that
∞
X ∞
X
Fx ( x) = Pr(x = xk )U ( x − xk ), f x ( x) = Pr(x = xk )δ( x − xk )
k=1 k=1
∞ R
The first moment m 1 = m = −∞ x f x ( x) dx is called the mean
(or expected value) of the RV x. The mean is the value
around which most other values of the RV tend to cluster.
Variance is related to the first and second moments by
Xn (−1) k n!
µn = m k E [xn−k ], n = 2, 3, 4, . . .
k=0 k !( n − k )!
(2 n)! 2n
E [x2n ] = σ , n = 1, 2, 3, . . .
2 n n!
Uniform distribution:
1 , a<x<b
f x ( x) = b − a
0, otherwise
The mean and variance, respectively, are m = (a + b)/2 and
σ2x = ( b − a)2 /12. The CDF is
0, x≤a
x−a
Fx ( x) = , a<x≤b
b−a
1, x>b
Rayleigh distribution:
x 2 2
f x ( x) = 2 e− x /2b U ( x)
b
p
The mean of a Rayleigh variate is given by m = b π/2, and
the variance is given by σ2x = (4 − π) b2 /2. The corresponding
CDF is
2 2
Fx ( x) = (1 − e− x /2b )U ( x)
Gamma distribution:
x c−1 − x
f x ( x) = e U ( x ), c>0
Γ( c)
Parameter c represents both the mean and variance of
gamma variate x. The CDF is
Z x
1
Fx ( x) = γ( c, x)U ( x), γ( c, x) = e− t t c−1 dt
Γ( c) 0
Beta distribution:
α−1 (1 − x)β−1
x
, 0<x<1
f x ( x) = B(α, β)
0, otherwise
Cauchy distribution:
α/π
f x ( x) = , −∞ < x < ∞
α2 + ( x − θ)2
The mean and variance of the Cauchy distribution do not
exist, but the parameter θ identifies the median and mode.
The CDF is given by
µ ¶
1 1 x−θ
Fx ( x) = + tan−1 , −∞ < x < ∞
2 π α
Although the moments of the Cauchy distribution do not
exist, it does have the characteristic function
Φx ( s) = exp( isθ − α| s|), −∞ < s < ∞
K distribution:
2α ¡ p ¢
f x ( x) = (α x)(α−1)/2 K α−1 2 α x U ( x)
Γ(α)
2(αβ)(α+β)/2 (α+β)/2−1 ³ p ´
f x ( x) = x K α−β 2 αβ x U ( x)
Γ(α)Γ(β)
1 1 1
Var(x) = + + −1
α β αβ
π
Fx ( x) =
sin[π(α − β)]Γ(α)Γ(β)
(
(αβ x)β
× 1 F2 (β; β + 1, β − α + 1; αβ x)
βΓ(β − α + 1)
¾
(αβ x)α
− 1 F2 (α; α + 1, α − β + 1; αβ x)
αΓ(α − β + 1)
Binomial distribution:
n
X n!
f n ( x) = p k q n−k δ( x − k), p+q =1
k=0 k !( n − k )!
n
X n!
Fn ( x) = p k q n − k U ( x − k ), p+q =1
k=0 k !( n − k )!
Φn ( s) = ( pe is + q)n
Poisson distribution:
X∞ mk
f n ( x) = e−m δ( x − k)
k=0 k!
X∞ mk
Fn ( x) = e−m U ( x − k)
k=0 k!
Φn ( s) = exp[ m( e is − 1)]
Chebyshev Inequality
k
F=
n
E[F] = p,
p(1 − p)
Var(F) =
n
p(1 − p)
Pr(|F − p| ≥ ε) ≤
nε2
Functions of One RV
y = g(x)
f x ( x)
f y ( y) =
| g 0 ( x )|
f x ( x1 ) f x ( x1 ) f x ( xn )
f y ( y) = + 0 +···+ 0
| g ( x1 ) | | g ( x1 ) |
0 | g ( xn )|
Z
1 ∞
f y ( y) = e− is y Φy ( s) ds
2π −∞
y = a x2 , a>0
where
p
g0 ( x1 ) = 2ax1 = 2 a y
p
g0 ( x2 ) = 2ax2 = −2 a y
1 −y
F y ( y) = F x ( x ) = 1 − e , y≥0
2
µ ¶
dFy ( y) 1 1
f y ( y) = = e− yU ( y) + 1 − e− y δ( y)
dy 2 2
1 −y 1
f y ( y) = e U ( y) + δ( y)
2 2
Conditional Probabilities
The notion of conditional probability relates to the
likelihood of some event B happening, given that another
known event A has already happened. Conditional
probabilities are probabilities in their own right, and
therefore satisfy the basic axioms listed in the first
chapter.
Some of the basic concepts of probability theory presented
in that chapter are reformulated in this chapter in terms of
conditional concepts. Thus, it is necessary to introduce the
concepts of conditional CDF, conditional PDF, conditional
moments, and so on.
Pr( A ∩ B)
Pr(B | A ) = , Pr( A ) 6= 0
Pr( A )
A related property is
Pr( A ∩ B)
Pr( A | B) = , Pr(B) 6= 0
Pr(B)
Pr(B | A )Pr( A )
Pr( A | B) = , Pr(B) 6= 0
Pr(B)
Pr[(x ≤ x) ∩ A ]
Fx ( x | A ) = Pr(x ≤ x | A ) =
Pr( A )
dFx ( x | A )
fx(x | A) =
dx
Pr[(x ≤ x) ∩ (x ≤ a)]
Fx ( x | A ) = Pr(x ≤ x | A ) =
Pr( A )
Var(x | A ) = E [x2 | A ] − E 2 [x | A ]
f x ( x)
f x ( x | x ≤ m) = U ( m − x)
Fx ( m)
where
" #
1 ( x − m )2
f x ( x) = p exp − , −∞ < x < ∞
σ 2π 2σ2
and
Z " #
1 ( x − m )2
m 1
Fx ( m) = p exp − 2
dx =
σ 2π −∞ 2σ 2
f x ( x | x ≤ m) = 2 f x ( x)U ( m − x)
{x ≤ x} ∩ {y ≤ y} = {x ≤ x, y ≤ y}
is represented by a quad-
rant in the ξη plane
having its vertex at
point ( x, y), as shown
in the figure. The prob-
ability of this event,
called the joint distri-
bution function of x
and y, is given by
Fxy ( x, y) = Pr(x ≤ x, y ≤ y)
∂2 Fxy ( x, y)
f xy ( x, y) =
∂ x∂ y
Pr(y ≤ y) = Fy ( y)
Pr(x ≤ x, y ≤ y) = Fxy ( x, y) = Fx ( x | y ≤ y)Fy ( y)
Fxy ( x, y)
Fx ( x | y ≤ y) =
F y ( y)
Fxy ( x, b) − Fxy ( x, a)
Fx ( x | a < y ≤ b ) =
Fy ( b ) − Fy ( a)
Z b
1
f x ( x | a < y ≤ b) = f xy ( x, y) d y
Fy ( b ) − Fy ( a) a
f x ( x | y) f y ( y)
f y ( y | x) =
f x ( x)
Thus,
f xy ( x, y)
f xy ( x, y | x2 + y2 < b2 ) = Î
D f xy ( x, y) dxd y
exp[−( x2 + y2 )/2σ2 ]
=
2πσ2 [1 − exp(−b2 /2σ2 )]
Independent RVs
or, equivalently,
f xy ( x, y | z) = f x ( x | z) f y ( y | z)
Cov(x, y)
ρ= ; σ2x = Var(x), σ2y = Var(y)
σx σ y
1
f xy ( x, y) = q
2πσ x σ y 1 − ρ2
( y− y)2
( x− x)2 2ρ( x− x)( y− y)
− +
σ2x σx σ y σ2y
× exp −
2(1 − ρ2 )
( x − x) ( y − y)
ξ= , η=
σx σy
and
" #
( y − y) 2
1
f y ( y) = p exp −
σ y 2π 2σ2y
z = x+y
z = ax + b y
and, consequently,
Z Z µ ¯ ¶
∞ ∞ 1 z ¯¯
f z ( z) = f z ( z | y) f y ( y) d y = fx y f y ( y) d y
−∞ −∞ | y| y¯
If the RVs are jointly Gaussian with zero means and unit
variances, this last expression leads to
µ ¶ µ ¶
1 ρz | z|
f z ( z) = q exp 2
K0 , −1 < ρ < 1
π 1 − ρ2 1−ρ 1 − ρ2
and
Z ∞ Z ∞
f z ( z) = f z ( z | y) f y ( y) d y = | y| f x ( yz | y) f y ( y) d y
−∞ −∞
g(x) = E [y | x]
ρσy
a= , b = E [y] − aE [x]
σx
(x1 − m) + (x2 − m) + · · · + (x N − m) N
1 X
z= p =p (xk − m)
N N k=1
N
1 X
z= p (xk − E [xk ])
N k=1
N
1 X
Var(z) = lim Var(xk )
N →∞ N k=1
S( t) = A( t)exp{ i [ω t + Φ( t)]}
S = A e iΦ
N
X
R e iΘ = Ak e iΦk
k=1
N
X
R e iΘ = Ak e iΦk
k=1
N
X
x = R cos Θ = Ak cos Φk
k=1
N
X
y = R sin Θ = Ak sin Φk
k=1
which leads to
Z α
1 sin α
m x = N 〈A 〉 cos Φ d Φ = N 〈A〉 = N 〈A〉sinc α
2α −α α
Similarly,
N
X
my = 〈Ak sin Φk 〉 = N 〈A〉〈sin Φ〉 = 0
k=1
or equivalently,
N
X N
X
P= Ak cos Φk + i Ak sin Φk = R cos Θ + i R sin Θ
k=1 k=1
Solution:
(1) The two-dimensional characteristic function for R is
where
q subscripts 1 and 2 refer to real and imaginary parts,
s = s21 + s22 , and J0 ( x) is a zero-order Bessel function. If
p
each step number A is renormalized by factor N , then in
limit N → ∞, it can be shown that
µ ¶
1 2 2
lim Φ N ( s) = exp − s 〈R 〉
N →∞ 4
which, through the Bessel transform, corresponds to the
Rayleigh distribution
Z µ ¶
∞ 1
f R (R ) = R J0 ( sR )exp − s2 〈R2 〉 ds
0 4
à !
2R R 2
=
2
exp − 2 , R > 0
〈R 〉 〈R 〉
N µ ¶
X N +α−1 α
f N ( x) = p (1 − p) N δ( x − k)
k=1
N
N µ ¶
( N /α) N
X N +α−1
= δ( x − k), α>0
k=1
N (1 + N /α) N +α
½ Áq ¶À¸¾−α
· ¿ µ
Φ N ( s) = 1 + ( N /α) 1 − J0 sA N
1
lim ΦN (s) =
N →∞ (1 + s2 〈R2 〉/4α)α
Z ∞ sR J0 ( sR )
f R (R ) = ds
0 (1 + s2 〈R2 〉/4α)α
µ ¶α
2 b bR
= K α−1 ( bR ), R>0
Γ(α) 2
p
where b = 2 α/〈R2 〉
Random Processes
In practice, one is faced with the analysis of random
data obtained by sampling a single realization of a
random process. When analyzing the time history of
such data, a decision must be made about whether the
data are stationary or not. Strictly speaking, stationarity
is defined in terms of ensemble averages, but a slightly
different interpretation takes place with a single time
history of the process. Generally, one interprets the time
history to be stationary if the properties computed over a
short time interval do not change significantly from one
interval to the next.
A single stationary random process is generally described
by the following statistical quantities:
1. mean and mean-square values
2. PDFs
3. correlation functions
4. power spectral density
f x ( x1 , t 1 ; x2 , t 2 ; . . . ; xn , t n )
Fx ( x, t) = Pr[x( t) ≤ x]
∂Fx ( x, t)
f x ( x, t) =
∂x
Fx ( x1 , t 1 ; x2 , t 2 ) = Pr[x( t 1 ) ≤ x1 , x( t 2 ) ≤ x2 ]
∂ F x ( x1 , t 1 ; x2 , t 2 )
f x ( x1 , t 1 ; x2 , t 2 ) =
∂ x1 ∂ x2
f x ( x1 , t 1 ; x2 , t 2 )
f x ( x2 , t 2 | x1 , t 1 ) =
f x ( x1 , t 1 )
or equivalently,
C x (τ ) = R x ( τ ) − m 2
C x ( τ) → 0 , |τ| → ∞
−1 ≤ ρ(τ) ≤ 1
Determine
1. the correlation function for x( t), and
2. the second-order PDF for x1 and x2 .
or
R x ( t 1 , t 2 ) = σ2 cos ωτ, τ = t2 − t1
(2) The expected value of the random process x( t) is 〈x( t)〉 =
〈a〉 cos ω t + 〈b〉 sin ω t = 0. Hence, σ2x = R x (0) = σ2 , and the
first-order PDF of x( t) is given by
1 2 2
f x ( x, t) = p e− x /2σ
σ 2π
The second-order PDF depends on the correlation
coefficient between x1 and x2 , which, because the mean
is zero, can be calculated from
R x ( τ)
ρx (τ) = = cos ωτ
R x (0)
and consequently,
à 2 2
!
1 x − 2 x1 x2 cos ωτ + x2
f x ( x1 , t 1 ; x2 , t 2 ) = 2
exp − 1
2πσ | sin ωτ| 2σ2 sin2 ωτ
Structure Functions
x( t) = m( t) + x1 ( t)
Structure function:
R xy ( t 1 , t 2 ) = 〈x( t 1 )y( t 2 )〉
Z ∞Z ∞
= x1 y2 f xy ( x1 , t 1 ; y2 , t 2 ) dx1 d y2
−∞ −∞
C xy ( t 1 , t 2 ) = R xy ( t 1 , t 2 ) − 〈x( t 1 )〉〈y( t 2 )〉
Example: PSD
x( t) = A cos(ω0 t + ϕ)
A2
C x (τ) = cos ω0 τ
2
Thus, by writing
1
cos ω0 τ = ( e iω0 τ + e− iω0 τ )
2
it follows that
Z
A2 ∞
S x (ω) = [ e− i(ω−ω0 )τ + e− i(ω+ω0 )τ ]d τ
4 −∞
π A2
= [δ(ω − ω0 ) + δ(ω + ω0 )]
2
PSD Estimation
such that
x( t) = lim xT ( t)
T →∞
Z ∞ E [| X T ( f )|2 ]
x2 ( t ) = lim df
−∞ T →∞ 2T
E [| X T ( f )| 2 ]
S x ( f ) = lim
T →∞ 2T
where
〈xy〉
σ21 = 〈x2 〉, σ22 = 〈y2 〉, and ρ =
σ1 σ2
The quantity ρ is the correlation coefficient.
If m x and m y denote the mean values of x and y,
respectively, then the bivariate normal PDF can be
deduced from the above by replacing x and y, respectively,
with the new variables ( x − m x ) and ( y − m y ). Moreover, for
normalized variables u = ( x − m x )/σ1 and v = ( y − m y )/σ2 , the
bivariate normal PDF becomes
" #
1 x2 − 2ρ x y + y2
f xy ( x, y) = q exp −
2 π 1 − ρ2 2(1 − ρ)2
xn mn
where
c i j = Cov(x i x j ) = 〈( x i − m i )( x j − m j )〉; i, j = 1, 2, . . . , n
Random Fields
A random function of a vector spatial variable R = ( x, y, z)
and possibly time t is called a random field. For the
complete description of a random field, it is necessary to
know its joint probability distributions of all orders, much
the same as for a random process. Because this is an
impossible task in practice, it is customary to describe
a random field in terms of its lowest-order statistical
moments. Consequently, the treatment of a random field
for the most part parallels that given in the fifth chapter
for a random process. For notational simplicity, it is useful
to suppress the time dependency of a random field and
treat it simply as a function of spatial variable R.
〈u(R)〉 = m(R)
µ ¶3 Ñ
1 ∞
S u (K) = e− iK·R Bu (R) d 3 R
2π −∞
1 dVu (κ)
S u (κ) = −
2πκ d κ
Z ∞
Fu (κ x , κ y , 0; z) = S u (κ x , κ y , κ z )cos( zκ z ) d κ z
−∞
Structure Functions
D u (R ) = 2[Bu (0) − Bu (R )]
Z ∞ µ ¶
2 sin κR
= 8π κ Su (κ) 1 − dκ
0 κR
and
Z · ¸
1 ∞ sin κR d d
S u (κ) = R2 D u (R ) dR
4π2 κ2 0 κR dR dR
Example: PSD
Linear Systems
= S0 h(η − τ) h(η) d η
−∞
Detection Devices
f z ( z) = 2 f x ( z)U ( z)
s
2Rx (0)
〈z( t)〉 =
π
1
f w ( w) = δ(w) + f x (w)U (w)
2
s
R x (0)
〈z( t)〉 =
π
Zero-Crossing Problem
S x0 (ω) = ω2 S x (ω)
x( t) = m( t) + u( t)
Z t+T /2
µ̂x ( t) = x( t)dt
t−T /2
Z t+T /2 Z t+T /2
〈µ̂x ( t)〉 = 〈x( t)〉 dt = m( t) dt 6= m( t)
t−T /2 t−T /2
++++−−−+++−−−+++++−−−
| Z | ≤ 1.96
1234323234
Equation Summary
Expected value:
Z ∞
E [ g(x)] = g( x) f x ( x) dx
Z ∞ −∞
E [(x − m)n ] = µn = ( x − m)n f x ( x) dx, n = 2, 3, 4, . . .
−∞
Characteristic equation:
Z ∞ ∞
X
Φx ( s) = E [ e isx ] = e isx f x ( x) dx; Φx ( s ) = e isxk Pr(x = xk )
−∞ k=1
Z
1 ∞
f x ( x) = e− isx Φx ( s) ds
2π −∞
Gaussian distribution:
" #
1 ( x − m )2
f x ( x) = p exp − , −∞ < x < ∞
σ 2π 2σ2
· µ ¶¸ Z
1 x−m 2 x − t2
Fx ( x) = 1 + erf p , erf( x) = p e dt
2 σ 2 π 0
à !
σ2 s2
Φx ( s) = exp ims −
2
Equation Summary
Conditional probability:
Fxy ( x, y) = Pr(x ≤ x, y ≤ y)
Equation Summary
Cov(x, y)
ρ= ; σ2x = Var(x), σ2y = Var(y)
σx σ y
1
f xy ( x, y) = q
2πσ x σ y 1 − ρ2
( y− ȳ)2
( x− x̄)2 2ρ( x− x̄)( y− ȳ)
− +
σ2x σx σ y σ2y
× exp −
2(1 − ρ2 )
Conditional expectation:
Z ∞ Z ∞
E [ g(x, y) | A ] = g( x, y) f x,y ( x, y | A ) dxd y
−∞ −∞
Equation Summary
Equation Summary
Bibliography
Index
Index
Index
Index
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ISBN: 9780819487018
SPIE Vol. No.: FG22
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