Roebers MA BMS

U NIVERSITY OF T WENTE
M ASTER ’ S T HESIS
The impact of interest rate

risk-taking on a bank’s
profitability
A new dimension to balance sheet improvement
Supervisors:
B. R OORDA (UT)
Author:
R. J OOSTEN (UT)
T. R OEBERS
D. F OKKEMA (EY)
P. V ERSTAPPEN (EY)
A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the degree of Master of Science

in
Financial Engineering and Management
May 25, 2017

iii
Abstract
With term premia present in the yield curve, banks have incentives to
create mismatches between term structures of cash flows and with this, ex-
pose themselves to interest rate risk. Especially in the current period of
historically low interest rates and rising pressure of competition, the con-
sequences of a return to pre-crisis interest rate levels could be disastrous
if this mismatch is too big. Regulators also acknowledge this problem,
for which they come to introduce new guidelines to manage and quan-
tify interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) in a more standardized
manner.
We examine the impact of a bank’s interest rate risk appetite on its re-
turn on equity, as well as give insight in the impact of a direct capital charge
for IRRBB. We do this by creating a model that reallocates the exposures to
balance sheet items. Our model is a stylized reflection of an average, small
Dutch bank and optimizes the return on equity of a bank while being sub-
ject to interest rate risk, liquidity and capital constraints originating from
the Basel accords. In order to provide a precise calculation of the interest
rate measures, the balance sheet items are allocated to detailed subclasses
based on fixed interest rate periods. We quantify IRRBB by the change in
net interest income (NII) and the change in economic value of equity (EVE)
resulting from a set of alternative interest rate scenarios. Subsequently,
banking instruments are subject are subject to optionality, creating uncer-
tainties in future cash flows. We analyze the impact of changes in two
sources of optionality embedded in banking instruments on a bank’s inter-
est rate risk exposure.
Our findings show the added value of the introduced alternative in-
terest rate scenarios and the importance of the complementary use of the
two interest rate risk measures in controlling earnings and economic value
volatility. Furthermore, we illustrate that the impact of a decrease in term
transformation by lowering thresholds on interest rate risk measures on a
bank’s interest rate spread. We find a decrease in interest rate risk-taking
when a direct capital charge for IRRBB would be implemented in the form
of a capital indicator based on the EVE. Finally, our findings indicate that
even small changes in the duration of core non-maturity deposits and the
magnitude of the prepayment rate cause relatively big fluctuations in a
bank’s interest rate risk exposure. With this, we lay out that the interest
rate risk exposure is highly sensitive to changes in client behavior, making
interest rate risk management an even more dynamic process.
v
Acknowledgements
This thesis is the final assignment in completing my Master Financial
Engineering and Management at the University of Twente. The last six
months I had the pleasure of writing my thesis during an internship at the
FS Risk department at EY, where I have worked alongside a lot of enthu-
siastic and helpful colleagues. I want to use this section to thank a few
people for making this thesis possible.
First of all, I want to thank my colleagues at EY for their input and
healthy distractions. In particular, I want to thank Diederik Fokkema and
Philippe Verstappen for their guidance, support and flexibility, both per-
sonally and professionally, during my time as an intern.
Furthermore, I want to thank Berend Roorda, who guided me as my
first supervisor on behalf of the University of Twente. The lectures, the
guidance and the opportunity to work as a student assistant at the Fi-
nance for Engineers module contributed largely to the experience I have
gained during my Master. I am also grateful for the guidance and lectures
of Reinoud Joosten, who acted as my second supervisor. Both supervi-
sors provided me with good conversations and extensive feedback, which
allowed me to improve my work.
With this thesis, my time as a student comes to an end. Here, a spe-
cial thanks is in place to my (former) roommates from the Bentrot, who,
amongst others, made this period a time that I will never forget.
Last but not least, I want to thank Suzanne, my family and my friends
for their mental support during the last months. I am very grateful that
you are always there for me, even during unforeseen setbacks.
Weesp, May 25, 2017

Tijmen Roebers
vii
Contents
Abstract iii
Acknowledgements v
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Problem Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Research Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 Research design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.4 Thesis Outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2 Literature Review 5
2.1 Definition and Origins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.1.1 Banking Book Versus Trading Book . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.1.2 Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.1.3 Components Of Interest Rate Risk . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.1.4 Composition Of Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2 Interest Rate Risk and Bank Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.3 IRRBB Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.3.1 Bank For International Settlements . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.3.2 The Basel Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.3.3 New Developments In IRRBB Regulation . . . . . . . 12
2.4 Interest Rate Risk Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.4.1 Gap Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.4.2 Duration of Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.4.3 Economic Value Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.4.4 Earnings Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.4.5 Regulatory Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3 The Model 21
3.1 Model Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3.1.1 Asset and Liability Mix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3.1.2 Interest Rate Swaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.1.3 The Objective Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.2 Model Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.2.1 The Balance Sheet Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.2.2 Model Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.3 Measuring Interest Rate Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.3.1 Interest Rate Floor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.3.2 ∆Economic Value of Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.3.3 ∆Net Interest Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
viii
3.4 Simulation Input . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

3.4.1 Starting Exposures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.4.2 Decision Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
3.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
4 Results 39
4.1 Short-Term Versus Long-Term Funding . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.2 Parallel Versus Non-Parallel Shocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.3 Short-Term Versus Long-Term Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4.4 Including Capital Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
4.5 Improving Our Balance Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
4.6 Change in Capital Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.7 Change in Optionality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
4.7.1 Stability of Deposits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
4.7.2 Prepayment Behavior of Mortgagors . . . . . . . . . . 49
4.8 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
5 Conclusion, Discussion and Further Research 53

5.1 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.2 Discussion and Further Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
A Interest Rate Scenarios 57
B Distribution of non-maturity deposits 59
C Interest rate swaps 63

C.1 Impact On Economic Value And Net Interest Income . . . . 63
C.2 Counterparty Credit Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
C.3 Credit Valuation Adjustment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
D Risk Measures 67
D.1 Capital Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
D.1.1 Total Capital Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
D.1.2 Leverage Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
D.2 Liquidity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
D.2.1 Liquidity Coverage Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
D.2.2 Net Stable Funding Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
E Balance Sheet Definition 71

E.1 Asset Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
E.2 Liability and Equity Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
E.3 Balance sheet input . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
F Interest Rate Disclosures 77
Bibliography 79
ix
List of Figures
2.1 Components of interest rates (BCBS, 2016). . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.1 Interest rate shock for the Euro in a steepener interest rate
curve scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3.2 Estimated gold storage cost based on gold future prices (No-
mura, 2016). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.3 EVE factors for NHG mortgages buckets. . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.4 Change in value of bullet loan versus mortgage with pre-
payment rate of 5% in a parallel up scenario. . . . . . . . . . 33
3.5 Impact of interest rate swaps on ∆EVE. . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.1 Impact of including non-parallel shocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

4.2 Long-term focus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
4.3 Impact of setting IRRBB risk appetite on return on equity. . . 44
4.4 Simulation including a capital charge for IRRBB. . . . . . . . 46
4.5 Change in capital requirements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.6 Development of TREA components while altering the total
capital ratio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
4.7 Impact of a change in the average duration of core NMDs on
the EVE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
4.8 Impact of a change in the prepayment behavior on the EVE. 50
A.1 Euro interest rate shock scenarios set out by the Basel Com-
mittee on Banking Supervision. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
A.2 Base and alternative interest rate scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . 58
B.1 Subclasses of non-maturity deposits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

B.2 Distributions of demand deposits and savings deposits over
buckets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
E.1 Starting distribution of stylized balance sheet . . . . . . . . . 75

E.2 Interest income and expense of current portfolio . . . . . . . 75
E.3 Interest income and expense of new business . . . . . . . . . 76
E.4 Proposed changes in balance sheet allocation . . . . . . . . . 76
xi
List of Tables
2.1 Summary interest rate risk measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.1 The stylized balance sheet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

3.2 Numerical example NII calculation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.3 Typical income statement of a bank (Bessis, 2011). . . . . . . 25
3.4 Example of change in present value value of a 100 cash flow
in ten years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4.1 Starting balance sheet exposures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

4.2 Starting interest rate risk exposures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
4.3 EVE values while focusing on NII. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
A.1 Interest rate shock-scenarios and multipliers. . . . . . . . . . 57
B.1 Stability caps and pass-through floors for NMDs. . . . . . . . 60
C.1 Par rates interest rate swap (source: Bloomberg). . . . . . . . . 63
E.1 Balance sheet distribution and data sources. . . . . . . . . . . 73

E.2 Asset starting exposure and risk factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
E.3 Liability starting exposure and risk factors. . . . . . . . . . . 74
xiii
List of Abbreviations
ALM Assets Liability Management

ASF Available Stable Funding
EAR Earnings At Risk
BCBS Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
BIS Bank for Interational settlements
CCR Counterparty Credit Risk
CPR Conditional Prepayment Rate
CVA Credit Valuation Adjustment
EAD Exposure At Default
EBA European Banking Authority
EV Economic Value
EVE Economic Value Equity
HQLA High Quality Liquid Assets
ICAAP Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process
IE Interest Expense
II Interest Income
IRRBB Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book
LCR Liquidity Coverage Ratio
LTV Loan-To-Value
LR Leverage Ratio
NHG Nationale Hypotheek Garantie (National Mortgage Guarantee)
NII Net Interest Income
NSFR Net stable Funding Ratio
NMD Non-Maturtity Deposit
O/N Over Night
RMBS Residential Mortgage-Backed Security
ROE Returon On Equity
RSF Required Stable Funding
SE Swap Expense
SREP Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process
TDDR Term Deposit Redemption Rate
TIA Time Impact Analysis
TSA Time Series Approach
TCR Total Capital Ratio
1
Chapter 1
Introduction
I wrote this thesis during an internship at the Financial Services Risk de-
partment of EY, located in Amsterdam. This department is specialized in
both qualitative and quantitative financial risk and compliance challenges.
One of today’s main topics playing a role in new regulation is interest rate
risk in the banking book. EY supports, among others, banks in organizing
the implantation of new interest rate risk regulations.
This chapter provides context to the thesis’ subject, the thesis’ objective
and elaborates on the structure of the thesis.
1.1 Problem Context

In a period of an increasing internationalization of financial systems and
a rising pressure of competition, every bank is obliged to seek an equi-
librium between a prudent and balanced term structure of assets and lia-
bilities while pursuing higher levels of profitability, resulting in differing
magnitudes of exposure across banks (BCBS, 2010). A bank should have
sufficient capital to withstand the impact of adverse scenarios until it can
implement mitigation actions, such as reducing exposures or increasing
capital. The possible impact of these risks a bank is exposed to is covered
by both Basel’s Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 legislation. Pillar 1 focuses on the mini-
mum amount of capital a bank should hold and liquidity ratios that should
be satisfied. In addition, Pillar 2, the supervisory review process, tends to
complete this through a supervisory review of overall capital adequacy in
relation to their risk profile (Hull, 2012). The measurement of interest rate
risk in the banking book (IRRBB), the biggest market risk for most retail
banks, presents a number of major practical difficulties including model-
ing the value of future cash flows and determining the appropriate value
of banking book assets and liabilities for which a tailored approach is pre-
ferred. It is for this reason that IRRBB is part of Pillar 2.
The financial condition of a bank is sensitive to fluctuations in interest
rates. Banks generally transform safe deposits that are due within short
notice into long-term, illiquid and more risky loans (Hull, 2012). The mis-
match in maturity is a substantial source of income for most banks, as long-
term interest rates tend to be higher than short-term rates. However, this
mismatch in maturities also exposes a bank to interest rate risk. This ex-
posure can easily be hedged using interest rate swaps, making the expo-
sure to a large extent a deliberate trade-off made by the bank managers
2 Chapter 1. Introduction
(Memmel, 2011). Decreasing earnings as a result of low interest rates cre-

ate incentives for banks to search for yields by taking on more interest rate
risk (Memmel, Seymen, and Teichert (2016), Rajan (2005)). Especially in
an environment with high competition and low interest rates, the impact
of rising interest rates could be disastrous when this mismatch is too big.
Particularly regulators are concerned for this type of risk and have been in-
vestigating for numerous years how to capture the mismatch in loans, de-
posit and other banking book products in a standardized framework. Cal-
culations of interest rate risk measures are often opaque due to the many
assumptions that need to be made in the process, resulting in a difficult
comparison across banks (BCBS, 2016). Furthermore, with the fundamen-
tal review of the trading book (FRTB) (BCBS, 2013b), the Basel Committee
on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has remained focused on addressing the
regulatory arbitrage across the banking book/trading book boundary. For
these reasons, the BCBS introduced new guidelines on the management of
interest rate risk, strengthening the old standards by offering a tighter out-
lier test, new guidelines on model assumptions and enhanced disclosure
(BCBS, 2016). Despite the BCBS dropping their proposed standardized
capital charge framework, the new guidelines make it possible to better
include the change of prescribed shocks on a bank’s capital (∆EVE) and
interest income (∆NII) in balance sheet simulation. Furthermore, Basel’s
new standards strengthen the set of shocks to the yield curve by includ-
ing non-parallel shifts. By using these more standardized measures and
guidelines for interest rate risk in the banking book, the author of this the-
sis and his supervisors, hereinafter referred to as we, judge the trade-off
between interest rate risk and return. Subsequently, the new guidelines
make it possible to calculate an approximation of capital that should be
held for interest rate risk in the banking book and evaluate the impact of
tighter capital requirements and changes in customer behavior.
1.2 Research Objective

The objective of this paper is to investigate the interaction between the
magnitude of a bank’s interest rate risk and the associated returns, together
with addressing a method for improving a bank’s balance sheet and giving
insight in the impact of stricter interest rate risk regulation. We shed light
on this topic by developing a tool to improve a bank’s interest rate spread.
We then analyze the impact of different limits of interest rate risk measures
and modeling assumptions on the dynamics and profitability of a stylized
balance sheet while improving the interest rate spread.
1.3 Research design

To achieve the research objective, we have formulated research questions
for structuring the research. Our main research question is:
1.4. Thesis Outline 3
What would be the impact of stricter regulation on interest rate risk in the bank-
ing book and how could a bank improve its balance sheet given its interest rate risk
appetite?
In order to answer this main research question, we have formulated

several sub-questions:
1. (a) What is interest rate risk in the banking book and how does it
relate to profitability?
(b) What are the regulatory developments regarding interest rate
risk in the banking book and what other regulatory requirements
are applicable to a bank’s balance sheet?
(c) How can the interest rate risk exposure of a balance sheet be
quantified?
2. (a) How does a typical balance sheet of a small Dutch bank look
like?
(b) How can the impact of setting a bank’s interest rate risk appetite
be illustrated and how can this be used to create an improved
balance sheet allocation?
3. (a) How severely does a bank’s interest rate risk appetite affect its
earnings?
(b) What is the impact of stricter capital requirements on a bank’s
interest rate risk taking and what the impact of changes in key
modeling assumptions on the interest rate risk exposure of a
bank?
1.4 Thesis Outline

Our paper is organized as follows:
In Chapter 2, we review the definition of interest rate risk, the origins
of its exposure and how it contributes to the profitability of a bank. We
conclude this chapter by summarizing how interest rate risk in the banking
book can be quantified.
Chapter 3 explains the developed model for improving a bank’s inter-
est rate spread given prudential measures. Furthermore, it describes the
steps taken to construct a stylized balance sheet of a small Dutch bank to
illustrate the direct impact of limits in interest rate measures and enhanced
IRRBB regulation.
In Chapter 4, this stylized balance sheet is used as input for the model in
order to analyze the impact of interest rate risk legislation, which is done
by altering limits on IRRBB measures while improving the interest rate
spread. Moreover, we illustrate the change in risk-taking by including a
capital charge through the weighted exposure for interest rate risk in the
4 Chapter 1. Introduction
total capital ratio. Subsequently, we make suggestions to improve the allo-

cation of our balance sheet and analyze the impact of changes in assump-
tions regarding optionality on the disclosed EVE measure by altering the
repricing assumptions of non-maturity deposits and prepayment rates of
residential mortgages.
Our thesis concludes with Chapter 5, where we discuss the findings
and limitations and do recommendations for further research.
We focus on standardized method proposed by the BCBS in their latest
version of standards on IRRBB (BCBS, 2016) and, where needed, comple-
ment this by using the previous draft (BCBS, 2015) to somewhat simplify
the interest rate risk calculations. Because data are limited, we use sim-
ple financial products and assume bullet payments for most balance sheet
items, a single realistic value for the conditional prepayment rate and use
a stylized balance sheet without the presence of a trading book. We use
a number of annual reports and performance reports of Dutch RMBSs for
computing this stylized balance sheet and for determining the fixed inter-
est periods.
5
Chapter 2
Literature Review
In Section 2.1, we summarize on the concept and definition of interest rate

risk, the components of interest rate risk and the building blocks of inter-
est rates. Section 2.2 summarizes the findings of academic literature on
the relationship between a bank’s interest rate risk taking and its returns.
Section 2.3 gives background on the developments in interest rate risk reg-
ulation. This chapter concludes with Section 2.4, which elaborates on the
commonly used measures to quantify interest rate risk.
2.1 Definition and Origins

2.1.1 Banking Book Versus Trading Book
To clearly understand the risks posed by movements in interest rates for a
banking book and the motivation of regulators to introduce a more stan-
dardized capital charge, one should know the difference between a bank-
ing book and trading book of a bank. Due to capital purposes, all activities
of a bank should be divided over two books. As the name implies, the
positions of a bank that are held for trading purposes are held in the trad-
ing book, where positions that are held to maturity belong in the banking
book. Regulation judges the risks for products that are held for trading
and held to maturity differently. With different risk measures for the two
books, an asset in one book can have a different capital charge compared
to the exact same asset in the other book (BCBS, 2013b). This is also the
case for interest rate risk. Interest rate risk in the trading book is part of
Pillar 1 , which inflicts a direct capital charge, where interest rate in the
banking book is part of the Basel capital framework’s Pillar 2. This results
in different capital requirements for the same type of risk, which triggers
potential capital arbitrage (Jones, 2000). To tackle this capital arbitrage,
the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) tries to regulate the
switching between banking and trading book and limits the derived capi-
tal benefits. Aligning capital charges for market risks to the different books
is particularly important given the enhancements in the capital treatments
for trading book positions, including the BCBS’s Fundamental Review of
the Trading Book (FRTB) (BCBS, 2013b).
6 Chapter 2. Literature Review
2.1.2 Definition
The theory of financial intermediation attributes a number of activities,
commonly referred to as qualitative asset transformation. THese activi-
ties are seen as the core activities of a retail bank, and include taking on
credit risk, liquidity provision and maturity transformation. The latter
evolves in most cases as a result of liquidity provisions when long term
fixed-rate loans are funded using short-term deposits (Bhattacharya and
Thakor, 1993). With term premia present in the yield curve, banks have in-
centives to create maturity gaps, i.e., a mismatch between term structures
of cash flows. Hereby, banks expose expose themselves to interest rate risk
(Memmel, 2011).
Before we include the banking book aspect, we first take a look at the
definition of interest rate risk. One definition, often used in academic liter-
ature, is the following:
Definition 2.1. Interest rate risk encompasses all risks that are directly
or indirectly induced by uncertainty about future interest rates (Hellwig,
1994).
Several variables, for instance probability of default, exposure at de-

fault, loss given default and repayment behavior, are correlated with move-
ments in the yield curve. Drehmann, Sorensen, and Stringa (2006) intro-
duced a theoretical framework in which they illustrate the difference be-
tween measuring the combined impact of interest rate risk and credit risk
in stressed scenarios and measuring the impact separately. However, due
to a split in credit risk and interest rate risk in the Basel regulatory mea-
surement framework, we primarily focus on the direct impact on a bank’s
capital and earnings under adverse fluctuation in the yield curve, ignoring
the correlation between credit and interest rate risk under the alternative
interest rate scenarios. Another definition, given by Koch and MacDonald
(2014), reflects the scope of this research better:
Definition 2.2. Interest rate risk is the potential loss from unfavorable changes
in interest rates on a bank’s profitability and market value of equity.
In this thesis we use the definition of interest rate risk in the banking
book provided by the BCBS (2016). This definition resembles the previous
definition, but stresses the direct effect of adverse fluctuations in the yield
curve on earnings and capital.
Definition 2.3. Interest rate risk in the banking book refers to the current
or prospective risk to a bank’s capital and to its earnings, arising from the
impact of adverse movements in interest rates on its banking book.
2.1.3 Components Of Interest Rate Risk

In this section, we elaborate on the three main types of interest rate risk
defined by the BCBS (2016):
2.1. Definition and Origins 7
1. Gap risk, which arises from a mismatch in term structure of interest

rate sensitive instruments in the banking book. A position with long-
maturity assets which is funded by short-term liabilities is exposed to
this type of interest rate risk. If the returns on long term investments
are fixed and the interest rate turns out to be higher than expected, it
is possible that refinancing costs exceed the returns on the long term
investment resulting in a negative net interest income. Subsequently,
following the theory of term structure of interest rates (Cox, Ingersoll,
and Ross, 1985), if the repricing periods of the assets perfectly match
those of the funding, the interest rate risk exposure is zero.
2. Basis risk. One complication of interest rate risk is that there are dif-
ferent reference rates. These interest rates tend to move together, but
are not perfectly correlated (Memmel, Seymen, and Teichert, 2016).
Basis risk describes the impact of relative changes in interest rates for
interest rate bearing instruments with the same term structure but
different interest rate indices. For instance, a basis risk exposure will
arise if the spread between three-month Treasury and three-month
LIBOR changes. This change will affect the net interest margin of a
bank as a result of changes in the spreads received or paid on instru-
ments that are repriced at that time. In the previous section, we stated
that the exposure to interest rate risk equals zero if the maturity of as-
sets perfectly matches the payments of the funding. We assumed here
that the interest rate indices for the payments are the same. Whether
this is not the case, there is still a basis risk component that can cause
exposure.
3. Option risk arises from alternative levels and terms of cash flows as a
result of optionality. Interest rate levels can trigger events embedded
in banking products. Common examples of banking products with
embedded optionality are redemption of deposits and prepayment
of loans. Also automatic optionality, for example the change in value
of certain interest rate derivatives, belongs to this type of risk.
2.1.4 Composition Of Interest Rates

The required return by investors consists out of two components: the risk-
free rate and a risk premium. The risk premium can again be divided into
several spreads to compensate for risks associated with investing in certain
instruments and counterparties (Hull, 2012). In this section we will elab-
orate on which spreads compose the interest rate and specify which rates
and spreads are contributing in determining the IRRBB according to the
BCBS (2016). In Figure 2.1 the composition of interest rates is illustrated.
For fair value priced instruments, e.g. bonds and interest-earning securi-
ties, interest rates contain the following building blocks:
1. The base of the interest rate is the risk-free rate, the return that can be
obtained without assuming any risks (Hull, 2012).
2. Investment instruments with longer maturities and higher volatilities

are more exposed to interest rate changes than instruments with short
maturities and low volatilities. The duration liquidity spread compen-
sates for this uncertainty.
3. Even risk-free instruments may have a premium representing the

market appetite for investing. This premium is named the market
liquidity spread.
4. The credit spread can be divided into two premiums, a general mar-
ket credit spread and an idiosyncratic credit spread. The general market
credit spread represents the spread associated with the risk premium
required by market participants for a given credit quality and is typi-
cally the required yield of a debt instrument from a party with a spe-
cific credit rating over a risk-free alternative. The idiosyncratic credit
spread is the premium for the credit quality of the specific individual
borrower and the risks associated with the credit instrument. The id-
iosyncratic credit spread takes into account other information as well,
such as risks from the sector, geographical location of the borrower
and risks associated with the credit instrument (BCBS, 2016).
The required return for instruments valued at amortize cost, e.g. con-
sumer or corporate loans, are based on two components BCBS (2016):
1. A funding rate, which is the cost of funding the loan and consists of
a reference rate plus a funding margin. The reference rate is an ex-
ternally set benchmark rate, such as the London interbank offer rate
(LIBOR). To come to a bank’s own funding rate, the funding margin
is added.
2. A credit margin, also called commercial margin, which is an add-on

to the funding rate. The other option is an administered rate, a rate
set by the control of a bank.
As illustrated in Figure 2.1, IRRBB regulation comprises the possible

negative effects of changes in the risk-free rate including the a spread for
duration. Credit spread risk includes any kind of asset/liability spread risk
of credit-risky instruments that is not explained by IRRBB and by expected
credit or jump to default risks and does not comprises the scope of IRRBB
(BCBS, 2015). Therefore, banks should exclude any commercial margins
and other spread components while computing their IRRBB exposure, as
these spreads are not covered in IRRBB-metrics, for which it is also not
covered in the model proposed in Chapter 3. The alternative is including
these spreads in the discount factor (BCBS, 2016), which will nullify this
inclusion to a large extent.
2.2. Interest Rate Risk and Bank Stability 9
F IGURE 2.1: Components of interest rates (BCBS, 2016).
2.2 Interest Rate Risk and Bank Stability

Authors of empirical academic papers find it hard to determine the rela-
tionship between interest rate risk taking and a bank’s stock returns or sta-
bility due to the complex environment and risk heterogeneity across banks.
Fraser, Madura, and Wigand (2002) found a negative relation between in-
terest rates and bank stock returns, which seems logical, since one of the
sources of income of a bank is through term transformation. Because of
this, a decrease in interest rates results in less interest expenses, while inter-
est income decreases less due to a longer repricing period. Chen and Chan
(1989) argue that these empirical studies often are the result of the sample
period and can not be generalized. Furthermore, Flannery (1983) does not
find proof to confirm the conventional wisdom that banks typically bor-
row short and lend long. Moreover, he argues that also small banks are
well hedged against interest rate fluctuations. However, BIS study by En-
glish (2002) concludes that it seems unlikely that interest rate fluctuations
are a major factor for a bank’s stability, even though he acknowledges an
impact of interest rate fluctuations on profit volatility. Maes (2005) found
the impact of interest rates on the stability of the banking industry more
severe than in English’ research. However, the empirical evidence of both
studies is weak (Dunn and McConnell, 1981). Memmel (2011) states the
interest rate risk exposure moves in accordance with the possible earnings
from term transformation. On the other hand, he found that the inter-
est rate margin is not affected much by the exposure to interest rate risk,
which makes it interesting to look at it from a model perspective.
2.3 IRRBB Regulation

We begin this section with a short introduction to the Bank for International
Settlements (BIS) and the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS)
by providing a shortened version from the origins provided on their web-
site (Bank for International Settlements, 2015). This section concludes with
a summary of new developments in interest rate risk regulation.
2.3.1 Bank For International Settlements

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international financial in-
stitution which fosters international monetary and financial co-operations
and serves basically as a bank for central banks. Originally, BIS was founded
in 1930 to facilitate reparations imposed on Germany by the Treaty of Ver-
sailles after World War I and to act as a trustee to the German Government
International Loan, also known as the Young Loan. After suspension of the
reparation payments, the BIS started to focus more on its second task: fos-
tering the cooperation between its member central banks. Due to collapses
of internationally active banks, and in specific the bankruptcy of Bankhaus
Herstatt in 1974, it became clear that there was a need for more banking
supervision on an international level. As a reaction to this event, the cen-
tral bank governors of the G10 countries established a committee we now
know as the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS). This com-
mittee provides a forum for regular cooperation on banking supervisory
matters and has the objective to enhance financial stability by improving
supervisory practices and the quality of banking supervision worldwide.
The BCBS aims to achieve its goals by setting minimum standards for
the supervision of banks and by sharing supervisory issues, approaches
and techniques to promote best practices and to improve cross-border co-
operation. Furthermore, the BCBS exchanges information on developments
in the banking sector and financial markets to identify emerging risks.
Although the BCBS determines minimum standards and supervisory ap-
proaches, the BCBS decision does not have legal force. The BCBS formu-
lates supervisory standards and appropriate practices to be implemented
by individual national authorities.
2.3.2 The Basel Regulation

With a committee setting international standards for banks, the foundation
of supervision on internationally active banks was laid. In the beginning,
the primary focus of the BCBS was on capital adequacy to cover losses of
credit risk. In July 1988, a first capital measurement system was issued
2.3. IRRBB Regulation 11
by the BCBS. This measurement system, also known as the Basel Capital
Accord, the 1988 Accord or simply Basel I, called for a minimum capital
ratio of eight percent of a bank’s risk-weighted assets, and had to be im-
plemented by 1992. In 1995, the framework was refined to address also
market risk in addition to credit risk, via an amendment to the Capital
Accord. This amendment also made it possible for banks to make use of
internal models to determine their adequate market risk capital require-
ments.
In June 2004, after a consultation period of almost six years, the Re-
vised Capital Framework, better known as Basel II, was introduced. This
framework consists of three pillars, a structure which is still being used
in the Basel regulation. The minimum requirements are captured in the
first pillar. The second pillar treats the supervisory review of the capital
adequacy and internal processes of a bank. Standards of effective use of
disclosure to strengthen market discipline belong to the third pillar (Hull,
2012). The objective of Basel II was to improve the reflection of underlying
risk by regulatory capital and capture risks from innovation in the finan-
cial industry. Furthermore, the new framework sought to encourage and
reward improvements in risk measurement and controls. After the intro-
duction of Basel II, the BCBS started to focus more on the trading book in
addition to the banking book. A new amendment was issued governing
the treatment of risk measurements of banks’ trading books in 2005, which
was integrated in Basel II in 2006 (BCBS, 2006).
During the crisis, the need for increasing supervision and more se-
vere capital requirements rose. Financial institutions were too leveraged
and their capital buffers were inadequate. The absence of these standards
in combination with poor internal risk management resulted in practices
such as the mispricing of credit and liquidity risk and excess credit growth
(Baldan and Zen, 2013). As a response to the need for more supervision,
the BCBS introduced a first set of principles to manage liquidity risk in
September 2008. In 2009, new documents were issued in order to further
strengthen Basel II. These packages of documents mostly contained treat-
ments for complex securitization positions, off-balance sheet vehicles and
trading book exposures.
The financial crisis shed a light on the risks taken by banks. Often,
banks were not able to impose losses on their capital buffers (Baldan and
Zen, 2013). Inevitably, the BCBS announced higher capital standards for
international active banks in 2010. This reform in the design of capital
and liquidity was the basis of Basel III. In addition to a higher percentage
common equity to cover potential losses, the leverage ratio, capital con-
servation buffer and counter cyclical capital buffer were introduced. Also
liquidity risk is covered more comprehensively through the introduction
of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and net stable funding ratio (NSFR),
see Appendix E. Moreover, global systematic important banks (G-SIBS) are
exposed to extensive additional capital and supervision.
2.3.3 New Developments In IRRBB Regulation

Since the introduction of Basel II, IRRBB is captured using a Pillar 2-approach
due to the heterogeneity across managing risks in banking books. The Pil-
lar 2-approach allows banks to use outcomes from internal models to de-
termine their exposure without a direct capital charge for it. Therefore,
financial institutions need to establish their capital adequacy by means of
an assessment process: the Internal Capital Adequacy Process (ICAAP)
(De Nederlandsche Bank N.V., 2005). The supervisor’s task is to evaluate
the methodology and systems used by the financial institution to evaluate
and determine capital adequacy through a Supervisory Review and Evalu-
ation Process (SREP). The interest rate risk is judged by the adequacy of the
risk management and the magnitude of the interest rate risk Hull (2012).
Interest rate risk in the banking book has been on the supervisory au-
thorities’ agenda since 1993, when the BCBS issued its first consultation pa-
per on this type or risk. In this 38-paged document the BCBS (BCBS, 1993)
consulted on measures for interest rate exposure in order to create a com-
mon standard measurement framework for international active banks. In
the resulting guidelines, published in 1997, the BCBS set out general prin-
ciples for managing interest rate risk (BCBS, 1997). These principles, which
got revised in 2004 with the revision of the Capital Adequacy Framework,
do not involve any specific capital requirement to cover potential losses
of positions in the banking book due to interest rate fluctuations. Instead,
they set out guidelines on policies, procedures and how to monitor IRRBB.
Furthermore, they make some suggestion on measuring interest rate risk,
leaving the definite choice for measurement systems to the bank or national
regulator.
Also in the next consultation papers, no general agreement was given
on how to calculate the appropriate amount of capital to cover potential
losses. It was left to the national regulator to determine the magnitude of
the capital requirement for this risk. To facilitate the national supervisors
in the comparison of interest rate risk exposures across financial institu-
tions, an economic value approach with standardized rate shocks was in-
troduced (BCBS, 2004b). For this process, a bank had the choice between
two options regarding the interest rate shock. This process, focusing on
G10 currencies, gave banks freedom to choose between using parallel up-
ward and downward 200 basis point shocks, or the 1st and 99th percentile
of observed interest rate changes of the last 240 working days holding pe-
riod and a minimum of five years of observations could be used. One flaw
in this version of the economic value measure is that only parallel interest
rate shock scenarios are used, ignoring positions that might be exposed to
risks arising from twists in the yield curve. To resolve this, banks were ex-
pected to come up and perform multiple scenarios evaluating their interest
rate risks from different angles.
In 2012, the BCBS began to examine a capital charge for interest rate risk
in the banking book (IRRBB) in a more standardized approach. The reasons
are simple: firstly, to help ensure that banks have enough capital to cover
potential losses resulting from interest rate risk exposure and secondly, to
2.4. Interest Rate Risk Measures 13
limit capital arbitrage between banking book portfolios and trading book
portfolios, which are subject to different accounting standards. Although
the motivation is logical, it is hard to create a standardized framework that
captures the interest rate risk exposure, because of the heterogeneity in
customers and risk appetite and optionality in banking products. This
challenge was also reflected in the time it took to publish a first consul-
tation paper. The BCBS spent no less than three years to publish its first
consultation in which it made an attempt at standardizing IRRBB a little
bit further by consulting on two options for regulatory treatments for IR-
RBB: a standardized Pillar 1-approach and an enhanced Pillar 2-approach
(BCBS, 2015). Due to feedback from the banking industry, the BCBS ac-
knowledged that including IRRBB in Pillar 1 would be less appropriate,
because of the heterogeneous nature of IRRBB (BCBS, 2016).
In April 2016, the BCBS presented the enhanced Pillar 2-approach in
which it continued to create a more standardized criterion to identify out-
liers by pleading for improved development of interest rate shocks, key
behavioral and modeling assumptions and internal validation processes
for internal measurement systems and models used for IRRBB. New in
this enhanced Pillar 2-approach is the more standardized disclosure of the
change in economic value of equity (EVE) based on standardized interest
rate shock scenarios. More on the new interest rate risk disclosures can be
found in Appendix F. In addition to previously prescribed shifts, a set of
non-parallel shifts is added for the EVE measure. Finally, some more mod-
eling restrictions are introduced for non-maturity deposits (BCBS, 2016).
With the introduction of new IRRBB guidelines, the introduction of an ex-
plicit capital framework for interest rate risk in the banking book seems
averted for the time being. The recurring debate of a standardized versus
the Pillar 2-approach was died down until the next regulatory attempt will
introduce itself. Until then, the task is left to the national regulators to de-
termine whether banks hold an appropriate amount of capital for this type
of risk.
2.4 Interest Rate Risk Measures

Hellwig (1994) argues that limiting interest rate risk for banks is not that
obvious from an economic view due to the fact that fluctuations in interest
rates affect the economy as a whole. This makes it a non-diversifiable risk.
The interest-induced valuation risks of long term assets can be shifted from
one agent to another or shared between agents, but cannot be diversified
away. Following this zero-sum view, the vision that interest rate risk in
banking needs to be controlled by regulation can not be based on the notion
that these risks are otherwise insufficient diversified, as this would mean
that either the economy as a whole needs to limit its exposure to interest
rate risk or parties other than banks are better qualified to bear these risks.
Here, the issue is what the optimal level of exposure to interest rate risk
is and how these risk are shared efficiently? From a banking supervisory
perspective, it is more clear: banks are the cornerstones of the economy,

meaning the risks banks are exposed to must be within limits.
It is important for a bank to measure its interest rate risk exposure reg-
ularly. This can be done by undertaking sensitivity analyses of shifts in
the yield curve. A variety of techniques and models are used by banks to
analyze their interest rate risk exposure. In this section, we will elaborate
on the most commonly used techniques listed by De Nederlandsche Bank
N.V. (2005). This section concludes with the measurement techniques pro-
posed by guidelines of the BCBS and our motivation to measure interest
rate risk in the banking book.
2.4.1 Gap Analysis

One of the first and simplest techniques of determining the interest rate
risk exposure is gap analysis, which is still common practice for financial
institutions. Gap analysis measures a bank’s interest rate risk exposure by
allocating assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet items to time buckets ac-
cording to their repricing characteristics (Hull, 2012). The net difference
in a specific bucket indicates the net exposure to changes in interest rates.
Because of this netting procedure, gap analysis may fail to recognize non-
linearities, resulting in an underestimation of the interest rate risk. By mod-
eling the cash flows of the whole portfolio we can capture this compression
in banks’ net margins better. The advantage of this method is that it is easy
to comprehend, which makes it easy to be communicated to management
and used as a first step in analyzing the interest rate risk in the banking
book (De Nederlandsche Bank N.V., 2005).
Because of the simplicity of this method, it has some weaknesses. Firstly,
it is a very static method and ignores optionality embedded in bank prod-
ucts. Subsequently, gap analysis fails to capture yield curve and basis risk
in an adequate manner, as it only illustrates the mismatches per bucket
and does not give a clear indication in the form of a number. Yield curve
risk, the risk of non-parallel changes in the yield curve, can be determined
through gap analysis, but it needs further analysis in order to do so. Finally,
using gap analysis one assumes all positions within a maturity segment ex-
pire or reprice at the same time (De Nederlandsche Bank N.V., 2005).
2.4.2 Duration of Equity

Duration is a widely used measure of a portfolio’s exposure to movements
of interest rates and it is used to estimate changes in a portfolio’s value as
a result of small changes in the yield curve. The duration itself is similar to
the effective maturity, but includes both principal and coupon cash flows.
The fraction of a change in bond price as a result of a one percent change
in its yield can be estimated by multiplying the present values of the cash
flows as a fraction of the total bond price by the time of cash flow. The for-
mula can be seen in Equation 2.1. The change in value of the portfolio can
then be estimated with Equation 2.2. A portfolio duration of zero does not
per se indicate perfectly matched cash flows, but it indicates small changes
in interest rate will cause no change in portfolio value (Hull, 2012).
n
1 dB X cf i · e−y·ti
D=− · = ti · ( ) (2.1)
B dy i=1
B
∆B = −D · B · ∆y (2.2)
Where:
D = Duration
B = Bond price
y = Interest rate
ti = Time of cash flow i
cfi = Cash flow i
The duration ignores the curvature in the relative change curve of the
value of the portfolio. This can partially be overcome by capturing the
convexity, the slope of the change as result of interest rate changes as can
be seen in Formula 2.3. The change in value can be calculated using For-
mula 2.4 (Hull, 2012).
Pn
1 d2 B cf · t2 · e−yti
C = − · 2 = i=1 i i (2.3)
B dy B
1
∆B = −D · B · ∆y + · B · C · (∆y)2 (2.4)
2
Generally, duration is used in two common used measures: the duration
of equity and the price value of a Basis point (PV01). The duration method
can be generalized to use in determining the price sensitivity of all inter-
est rate dependent instruments on a balance sheet. Because the duration
of both assets and liabilities can be calculated, the duration of the equity
can be constructed, as the definition of economic value of equity is the
economic value of the assets minus that of the liabilities. The duration of
equity gives an indication about the value change as a result of relatively
small changes in the yield curve. Using the duration of equity for a one
basis point parallel change will result in the PV01.
The convexity expansion for the duration can be used to calculate the
effect of relatively large shifts in the yield curve on the bond price. Still, du-
ration only considers parallel shifts in the yield curve, because of the gen-
eralization of cash flows over time. In an environment of historically low
interest rates non-parallel shifts in the yield curve should be considered. In
addition to yield curve risk, basis risk cannot be measured using this ap-
proach. Furthermore, durational measures ignore change in cash flow as
a result of optionality affected by interest rate changes (De Nederlandsche
Bank N.V., 2005). Many banking products have embedded optionality trig-
gered by interest rates, which causes alternative expected cash flows. This
makes it important to include optionality in determining interest rate risk
in the banking book. Finally, duration is a static measure, meaning it does
not include new business or the possibility of applying mitigation strate-

gies.
2.4.3 Economic Value Perspective

When interest rates deviate, the value of the underlying assets and liabil-
ities of a bank changes due to changes in expected future cash flows and
discount rates. Unless the repricing of the assets matches the repricing of
liabilities perfectly, the economic value of a bank changes, since the eco-
nomic value of equity equals the value of the assets minus liabilities. The
economic value of equity measure (further referred to as EVE or ∆EVE)
determines the change of a bank’s economic value of equity as a result
of interest rate scenarios. Firstly, the economic value under a base inter-
est scenario is calculated. After that, the balance sheet is revalued under
the alternative interest scenarios and the differences in a bank’s economic
value are determined, see Equation 2.5.
The EVE measure is a gone concern measure, meaning that positions
on a bank’s balance sheet run off and are not replaced by new business.
In 2016, the BCBS introduced a standardized ∆EVE approach to compare
interest rate risk in the banking book through a common, standardized
measure. Because all cash flows are used for this calculation, this approach
is often used to measure the potential long-term impact of interest rate
shocks on banks and is seen as a proper indicator for the required amount
of capital a bank should hold to cover IRRBB losses (Cohen (2012), BCBS
(2016)).
One disadvantage of this method is that most of the assets and liability
in the banking book are hard to price, since they are not traded on the mar-
ket. Because of this, banks often use a ’mark-to-model’-approach in which
theoretical models are used to come up with an appropriate price. Further-
more, since for this measure a run-off balance sheet is used, new business
or mitigation strategies are not incorporated. It cannot make allowance for
the market valuations of future growth in existing or new business activi-
ties (De Nederlandsche Bank N.V., 2005).
X
∆EVE = max (max(0; ∆EVE i,c )) (2.5)
i∈{1,2,...,6}
c:∆EVE i,c >0
Where:
∆EVE i,c = Change in EVE under interest rate scenario i in currency c
2.4.4 Earnings Perspective

During severe shocks, a sufficient ∆EVE is not a guarantee that a bank will
face no problems. Heavy losses over a short or medium period of time
could pose a threat to a bank’s capital position and could cause liquidity
problems due to lack of cash or to a downgrade of credit score. Earnings-
based measures focus on controlling the variability of a bank’s interest
margin and therefore implicitly also of its profitability on a short-term time

horizon. The models that apply this approach are based on the finding of
mismatching between the maturity periods or first repricing events for the
lending and borrowing positions within a given period of analysis (Cohen,
2012). As with the EVE, the earnings at risk (EaR) measure determines the
change of the expected net interest income as a result of interest rate shocks
and is more suited for determining risks for a short to medium term, typi-
cally one to two years. With the EaR variant described by the BCBS (further
referred to as NII) one is assuming a static balance sheet, meaning the size
and shape of a bank’s balance sheet remains the same by assuming like-
for-like replacements of balance sheet items as they run off. Besides from a
regulatory perspective, the NII is often used for internal management as it
gives a complete picture of earnings risk resulting from interest rate move-
ments by analyzing the interest risk profile of a banking book in a detailed
and tailored way (BCBS, 2015). In contrast to the EVE, the NII as described
by the BCBS only considers the two parallel shocks to the yield curve and
evaluate the change in net interest income over a specific horizon, making
the NII an important indicator, but less suitable as a standalone measure.
Moreover, EaR measures can be complex and non-transparent as a result
of underlying repricing assumptions (De Nederlandsche Bank N.V., 2005).
2.4.5 Regulatory Scope

We previously summarized the most commonly used interest rate mea-
sures and their advantages and disadvantages. From a regulatory perspec-
tive, it is of essence that all material sources of interest rate risks are cov-
ered. Table 2.1 summarizes the coverage of the measures discussed and
illustrates that covering all risk components using a standalone measure is
not possible. The BCBS argues that focusing primarily on minimizing one
measure can result in high volatility of earnings or equity and can pose a
threat to a bank’s capital base or future earnings (BCBS, 2016). It is there-
fore that the standards in Interest rate risk in the banking book, issued by the
BCBS in April 2016, states that a bank should determine its IRRBB risk ap-
petite in both economic value and earnings-based measures, where banks
often solely use the latter measure. The two measures show commonal-
ities, but can be used in a complementary manner, as can be seen in Ta-
ble 2.1. These measures are preferred over the other two measures, as gap
analysis fails to capture optionality and basis risk and cannot be expressed
as a single number. Durational measures are found less appropriate than
earnings-based measures due to the limited capture of optionality and ba-
sis risk. Moreover, durational measures fail to estimate the impact of larger
shocks to the yield curve. The BCBS emphasizes the economic value mea-
sures as capital indicator due to the inclusiveness of all banking book cash
flows, while still limiting the earnings volatility under interest rate scenar-
ios over a short-term period. We therefore include the combination of the
∆EVE and ∆NII as interest rate risk indicators in our model.
TABLE 2.1: Summary interest rate risk measures.
Component Gap analysis PV01/Duration ∆EVE EaR / ∆NII

Short-term exposure Yes No No Yes
Long-term exposure Yes Yes Yes No
Gap risk Yes Yes Yes Yes
Basis risk No No Yes Yes
Optionality No Limited Yes Limited
2.5 Conclusions
In this chapter, we answered our first sub-questions, by determining the
definition of interest rate risk in the banking book and its components,
together with the components of the required return for banking products.
We furthermore treated the relationship between interest rate risk taking
and bank earnings. Finally, we treated the developments in interest rate
risk regulation and the measures to quantify interest rate.
• What is interest rate risk in the banking book and how does it relate to prof-
itability?
We define IRRBB as the risk to the current or prospective risk to a bank’s

capital and to its earnings, arising from the impact of adverse movements
in interest rates on its banking book (BCBS, 2016). Taking on interest rate
risk contributes to the interest rate spread of a bank, due to term-premia
present in the yield curve. By increasing its interest rate risk exposure, i.e.,
lend long and borrow short, a bank can increase its interest income.
• What are the regulatory developments regarding interest rate risk in the
banking book?
Interest rate risk has increased focus on the regulator’s agenda, due to the
increased competition and the current low interest rate environment. The
BCBS strives to more standardization, but IRRBB remains, due to hetero-
geneity and the tailored approach that is needed, part of Pillar 2. How-
ever, new guidelines on measuring and disclosing IRRBB are introduced
recently. These guidelines have been used as much as possible in support-
ing the IRRBB calculations in our model.
• Which other regulatory requirements are applicable to a bank’s balance sheet?
Besides limits on interest rate exposures, a bank is subject to other require-

ments on liquidity, i.e., the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable
funding ratio (NSFR), and capital, i.e., the leverage ratio (LR), common eq-
uity tier 1 ratio (CET1 ratio) and the total capital ratio (TCR)
• How can the interest rate risk exposure of a balance sheet be quantified?
While measuring interest rate risk in the banking book, it is of essence that
all interest rate risk components are covered. We laid out the commonly
2.5. Conclusions 19
used measures in interest rate risk management. Moreover, we illustrated

that based on coverage of interest rate risk components, the combination of
the EVE and NII is found most suitable in measuring IRRBB by the BCBS
. These risk measures are used in the next chapter to quantify the interest
rate risk exposure on balance sheet level.
21
Chapter 3
The Model
In this chapter, the model we use to improve the balance sheet, and with
this, illustrate the impact of changes in regulations and model assumptions
is introduced. Section 3.1 elaborates on the items for our stylized balance
sheet as well as introduces the objective function of the model. Section 3.2
explains the balance sheet definition and key constraints. Section 3.3 treats
how we include the EVE and NII measures and elaborates on our choice
for the interest rate floor. This chapter concludes with Section 3.4, in which
we explain how we come to our starting exposures and decision space.
3.1 Model Objective

To assess the impact of a bank’s interest rate risk appetite and new regu-
lation on its profit, we compare the improvement of a balance sheet of a
hypothetical bank in a base scenario with alternative interest rate scenar-
ios. We introduce a model to capture the effects of a bank’s interest rate
risk exposure while improving its profitability by reallocating assets and
liabilities given a realistic decision space. We compose a hypothetical bal-
ance sheet using several annual reports and performance reports of Dutch
RMBSs. For this, we focus on smaller, traditional retail banks whose core
activity is providing mortgages and is mainly funded by deposits and debt
securities. The model makes use of the sequential quadratic programming
(SQP) algorithm for non-linearly constrained gradient-based optimization,
based on the Kraft’s implementation, see Kraft (1994), and is included
through the NLOPT package for R.
Our addition to earlier balance sheet simulations and improving method-
ologies is adding a detailed specification of cash flows which allows us to
include interest rate risk parameters. By including this, we can lay out the
impact of tighter IRRBB regulation and the interaction between a bank’s
IRRBB appetite and its interest spread. A bank can use this approach to get
insights in a possible improved allocation over assets and repricing matu-
rities and can get insight in the costs of tighter interest rate risk appetite on
balance sheet level.
3.1.1 Asset and Liability Mix

The asset and liability mix of the hypothetical bank results from the com-
parison of balance sheets across Dutch banks that match the profile of our
22 Chapter 3. The Model
TABLE 3.1: The stylized balance sheet.
The Stylized Balance Sheet

Assets Liabilities and Equity
- (i=1) Cash and balances with central banks - (j=1) Due to banks
- (i=2) Loans and advances to banks
Retail:
Government bonds: - (j=2) Demand deposits
- (i=3) Government bonds (AA- +) - (j=3) Savings deposits
- (i=4) Government bonds (A- to A+) - (j=4) Term deposits
Retail: Corporate and commercial:

- (i=5) NHG - (j=5) Secured wholesale funds
- (i=6) Loan-to-value <60% - (j=4) Other liabilities
- (i=7) Loan-to-value 60%-80%
- (i=8) Loan-to-value 80%-102% - (j=5) Total equity
- (i=9) Other assets

Off-balance sheet instruments:
- (k=1) Interest rate swaps
hypothetical bank and can be seen in Table 3.1.

As can be seen in the stylized balance sheet, our hypothetical bank is
only involved in mortgage lending. Not all of these banks solely sell mort-
gages. In most cases, a bank as ours has a small amount of customer or cor-
porate loans without collateral. For simplicity and because these amounts
are relatively small, we exclude these items from the balance sheet. A trad-
ing book is also not included in the model, since these banks often do not
have a trading book.
For capturing the cash flows of the asset and funding mix, we split each
balance sheet item up into nineteen maturity classes based on the maturity
buckets suggested by the BCBS (2016). For a bank which is funded for a
substantial part through customer deposits, modeling assumptions on the
repricing dates of deposits can have a big impact on its interest rate risk
exposure. To determine the distribution of savings and demand deposits
over the time buckets, we use the Time Series Approach (TSA) (BCBS,
2015), in which we first determine the number of core deposits. The core
deposits for the savings deposits and the demand deposits are uniformly
slotted over nine and ten years respectively. The non-core deposits are slot-
ted in the overnight bucket. Although this methodology is standardized,
the high level of standardization could result in not capturing the reality
appropriately. Furthermore, relatively small differences in the implied cap
for core deposits result in different repricing dates, which subsequently re-
sult in different EVE and NII factors. This methodology is elaborated in
Appendix B.
For simplicity and to avoid making repayment assumptions, all assets
3.1. Model Objective 23
and liabilities except for mortgages are assumed to be bullet payments. For
all balance sheet items, the interest payment and payment of the principal
are calculated monthly.
To avoid making assumptions about the redemption of mortgages, the
repayment of the principal for the mortgages is modeled solely through a
conditional prepayment rate of five percent of the principal amount at the
time of the cash flow. This value in line with the CPRs of the RMBSs used
to construct our stylized balance sheet (Dolphin Master Issuer B.V. (2016)
and Goldfish Master Issuer B.V. (2016)).
Definition 3.1. A conditional prepayment rate (CPR) is a loan prepayment

rate equal to the proportion of the principal of a pool of loans assumed to
be paid off prematurely in each period.
For a more detailed description of the balance sheet items, see Ap-
pendix E.
3.1.2 Interest Rate Swaps

Nowadays, banks are managing their interest rate risk in different man-
ners. A frequently used method used by banks is to exchange repricing
maturities using interest rate swaps. Because interest rate swaps are vi-
tal instruments for banks to hedge interest rate risk (Bucksler and Chen,
1986), we include ten different fixed/floating interest rate swaps in our
model, which only deviate in time to maturity. This way, we cover the pos-
sibility across all maturities to swap fixed for floating interest rates without
creating too many decision variables.
Definition 3.2. An interest rate swap is an agreement between two parties

to exchange a series of interest payments without exchanging the underly-
ing debt (Bucksler and Chen, 1986).
In a typical fixed/floating rate swap, the first party promises to pay to

the second at designated intervals a fixed amount of interest calculated at a
fixed rate on the "notional principal". The second party promises to pay to
the first at the same intervals a floating amount of interest on the notional
principle calculated according to a floating-rate index. The first party in
a fixed/floating rate swap, which is paying the fixed amount of interest,
is known as the fixed rate payer, while the second party, which is paying
the floating amount of interest, is known as the ’floating-rate payer’. By
paying a fixed rate and receiving a floating one, a bank can swap a long
repricing time for a short repricing time and the other way around.
In our model the fixed coupon are determined such that the net present
value of the fixed leg equals that of the floating leg. By using this par
coupon, the fair value of the interest rate swap at initiation equals zero.
Despite a fair value of zero, an interest rate swap still exposes a bank to
risks for which capital should be held. Interest rate swaps are traded over-
the-counter, meaning that the swap is traded directly between two parties,
which causes direct counterparty credit risk (CCR) (Bucksler and Chen,
1986). The second factor that can be distinguished is credit valuation ad-
justment (CVA), for which also capital should be held (BCBS, 1993). The
calculation of the required capital for interest rate swaps is treated in Ap-
pendix C.
3.1.3 The Objective Function

Different approaches are used within balance sheet analysis and improve-
ment. An often used approach is the Modern Portfolio Technique (MPT) by
Markowitz (1952), based on the well-known Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM). In this method, the spread is optimized for a given risk, which
is quantified by the volatility of the portfolio. Although the portfolio’s
volatility is a commonly used method to quantify the portfolio risk, we
choose not to include the volatility constraint. The reason is that the focus
of this paper is on the impact of a bank’s interest rate risk appetite on its
potential spread given other, mostly regulatory, risk parameters. Further-
more, on the asset side of the balance sheet, our hypothetical bank is rather
conservative by solely focusing on mortgages and by not being involved
in trading activities. However, we do make use of the spread component
in our objective function.
It is safe to say that positions in the banking book are not created over a
short period of time. A typical mortgage is repaid in fifteen to twenty-five
years and also exposures on the liability side of a bank can have maturities
exceeding ten years. Given the severe fluctuations in interest rates dur-
ing the last years combined with the current continuous low interest rate
(BCBS, 2016), new business is acquired against different rates than current
exposures. Since we want to see the effect of a shift in balance sheet compo-
sition in the current situation, our objective function distinguishes new and
old business, as they yield different rates. This way we can observe which
shift given a set of risk constraints is advised and evaluate the correspond-
ing effect on a bank’s profit. Before we define our objective function, we
define the net interest income (NII) as a function of the existing business,
new to be acquired business and their interest income and expenses. Ta-
ble 3.2 gives a numerical example of the how xold and xnew are determined.
~ old + ~xnew · II
NII = ~xold · II ~ new − ~yold · IE
~ old − ~ynew · IE
~ new + ~o · SE
~ (3.1)
Where:
xold (y old ) = Asset (liability) exposure after repayment
xnew (y new ) = New acquired amount of the asset (liability)
o = Notional interest rate swaps
II = Interest income
IE = Interest expense
SE = Expected swap payment - fixed coupon
Table 3.3 summarizes the main revenues and costs of a bank’s income
statement. Due to a point in time optimization, our objective function does
3.2. Model Definition 25
TABLE 3.2: Numerical example NII calculation.
Current exposure New exposure Repayment xold xnew

100 110 20 80 (=100 - 20) 30 (=110 - 80)
100 90 20 80 (=100 - 20) 10 (=90 - 80)
TABLE 3.3: Typical income statement of a bank (Bessis, 2011).
Interest margin (NII) and fees

+ Capital gains and losses
- Operating costs
= Operating income (EBITDA)
- Depreciation
- Provisions for loan losses
- Tax
= Net income
not consider depreciations nor expected capital gains, making the depreci-
ations and expected capital gains zero. Following from this, our objective
function can be defined as:
δ (NII − LL − Coperating )
Return on equity = (3.2)
Equity
Where:
δ = Tax factor
LL = Loan loss provisions
C operating = Operating costs
Since we define our operating costs as a percentage of the balance sheet

size, and keep the balance sheet size and the amount of equity constant
in the simulation, the true objective we optimize under a set of risk con-
straints is the interest spread minus the provisions for the expected loss of
loans. The provisions for the expected loss of loans are calculated through
a percentage of the loan, which is the result of a balance sheet regression
performed by EY internally.
3.2 Model Definition

3.2.1 The Balance Sheet Definition
A balance sheet is subject to different requirements. We start by defining
the sum of the assets (x) and the sum of liabilities and equity (y), which is
equal by definition, and equals one in our model. The notional amounts of
our interest rate swaps are defined by oi .
X
Total assets = xi,t = 1 (3.3)
X
Total liabilities and equity = yi,t = 1 (3.4)
Interest rate swap notional = ot (3.5)

The decision space of our hypothetical bank depends on several as-
sumptions, such as liquidity, availability for sale and repayment of the
balance sheet item. To set the decision space of our bank, we insert up-
per and lower bounds for our balance sheet items, which can be written as
follows:
x− +
i,t ≤ xi,t ≤ xi,t (3.6)
− +
yi,t ≤ yi,t ≤ yi,t (3.7)
o− +
t ≤ ot ≤ ot (3.8)
Here, x− +
i,t and xi,t respectively represent the lower and upper bound of
asset i.
3.2.2 Model Constraints

While improving the spread, we restrict six risk measures, which we in-
clude through a set of twelve constraints. Background on the regulatory
ratios can be found in Appendix D. Moreover, risk weights and other fac-
tors can be found in Appendix E.
• Total capital ratio (TCR)

y6
TCR = P (3.9)
~ + GI · 0.15 + CCR (~o) + CVA (~o)
~x · RW
• Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR)

P ~
~x · HQLA
LCR = P (3.10)
~ − min 0.25 · P ~y · CO,
~y · CO ~ P ~x · CI
~
• Net stable funding ratio (NSFR)

P ~
~y · ASF
NSFR = P (3.11)
~
~x · RSF
• Leverage ratio (LR)

y6
LR = P (3.12)
xt + PFE(~o)
3.3. Measuring Interest Rate Risk 27
• Economic value of equity under scenario i (∆EVE )

P ~ x,i − P ~y · ∆EV
~x · ∆EV ~ y,i + P ~o · ∆EV
~ o,i
∆EVE i = (3.13)
y6
• Net interest income under scenario i (∆NII )

P ~ x,i − P ~y · ∆IE
~x · ∆II ~ y,i + P ~o · ∆SE
~ o,i
∆NII i = (3.14)
y6
3.3 Measuring Interest Rate Risk

We quantify the interest rate risk in the banking book by evaluating the
change in economic value of equity and the one year change in net inter-
est income resulting from a set of interest rate scenarios as described in
the latest guidelines on managing interest rate risk by the (BCBS, 2016).
These interest rate scenarios include a complete set of both parallel and
non-parallel shocks to the yield curve, also covering scenarios of a steep-
ener and flatteren yield curve and fluctuations in the short rate. The com-
position of these interest rate scenarios are described in Appendix A. An
example of a stressed interest rate scenario according to the standards set
out by the BCBS can be seen in Figure 3.1.
Prepayment rates of loans and redemption rates of deposits are also
affected by interest rate movements. In a scenario with increasing inter-
est rates, the conditional prepayment rate (CPR) tends to be lower than in
the base scenario and for term deposit redemption rates (TDRR) vice versa
(Dunn and McConnell, 1981). In the model, the CPR will be stressed by a
scalar appropriate to the corresponding scenario in the model. The TDRR
is not included, since the penalty for redeeming term deposits earlier than
the contractual maturity often compensates for the interest rate risk expo-
sure created. By using these stressed scenarios, the value of a banks equity
and their net interest income deviates compared to the baseline interest
and prepayment rate. In this section, we first explain the choice for the
interest rate floor. Afterwards, we will elaborate on the application of the
∆EVE- and ∆NII-measure in our model.
3.3.1 Interest Rate Floor

Negative interest rates have now been introduced in five currency areas,
corresponding to around 20 percent of global economic output. However,
guidelines by De Nederlandsche Bank N.V. (2005) on interest rate risk still
prescribe a floor of zero for interest rate scenarios. Since interest rates are
of crucial importance for the economy and in view of the fact that negative
interest rates are now widely introduced, the question is whether negative
scenarios should be included in the calculation of ∆EVE and ∆NII, and if
so, which interest rate floor should be considered.
F IGURE 3.1: Interest rate shock for the Euro in a steepener

interest rate curve scenario.
Researchers of the Japanese holding company Nomura state the ulti-

mate lowest interest rate can occur when the deposit money is not rein-
vested. Following from this, the long term storage cost of money would be
the ultimate lowest interest rate possible, since the invested money yields
zero. Nomura makes the comparison with the average long term storage
price of gold implied by historical future prices, which they use as a proxy
for globally long term storage cost of money (Nomura, 2016). They argue,
that based on this comparison, the ultimate lowest interest rate on the long
term would be around minus 2.4 percent. A note should be made that the
implied storage cost fluctuates heavily over time as Figure 3.2 illustrates.
F IGURE 3.2: Estimated gold storage cost based on gold future

prices (Nomura, 2016).
A survey among 42 European banks, conducted by EY (2016), shows

that the vast majority of the responding Dutch banks already consider neg-
ative interest rate scenarios in IRRBB modeling, but still report to DNB
using scenarios floored at zero percent. Given that negative interest rates
are widely introduced and the absolute theoretical lowest interest rate is
still a significantly lower than current yields, we include an interest rate
floor level between the theoretical minimum and current regulatory floor,
namely minus one percent for interest rates after shock.
3.3.2 ∆Economic Value of Equity

Alternative interest rate scenarios have two factors that influence a change
in a bank’s economic value of equity:
1. The cash flows: loans are subject to prepayment risk. In our model
only mortgages are subject to this risk and this is included in the
model through a stress factor of the CPR.
2. The discount factor: the discount factor changes due to changes in
the interest rate.
For the following calculations we see a liability as a negative asset. For

simplicity and to match the cash flows as well as possible, we assume
monthly interest and principal payments, meaning that there is a monthly
interest payment of a twelfth of the annual interest income of that asset. We
use the following four steps to determine the change in economic value of
equity for the six alternative interest rate scenarios:
We start by constructing the cash flows. The k th cash flow resulting
from asset i with maturity T can be written as:
CF i,T,k = (tk − tk−1 ) · Ci,T · Ni,T + Ni,T · Ik=K , for k ∈ 1..K (3.15)
Where:
tk = the timing of cash flow k
Ci,T = the coupon of asset i with maturity T
Ni,T = the principal of asset i with maturity T
Ik=K = 1 if k equals K, otherwise 0
Mortgages are subject to prepayments. Therefore, the cash flows of
mortgages include a constant prepayment rate and are determined as fol-
lows:
CF i,T,k = (tk − tk−1 ) · (Ci,T + CPR) · Ni,T,k−1 + Ni,T,K · Ik=K , for k ∈ 1..K
(3.16)
Where the remaining principal amount evolves through:
Ni,T,k = Ni,T,k−1 · (1 − (tk − tk−1 ) · CPR) , for k ∈ 1..K (3.17)
The payments are then slotted over nineteen time buckets as described
by the BCBS (2016). Ultimately, the commercial spreads should be sub-
tracted from the cash flows. An alternative given by the BCBS (2016) is to
discount using the original spreads. Since we use a hypothetical balance
sheet, we are unable to determine the precise spreads of our positions. In-
stead, we use the current yield curve of the asset or liability as input for
the discount factor. By doing so, we assume that the current commercial
margins equal the commercial margins of the current portfolio.
The second step is to calculate the economic value of an asset under
all interest rate scenarios. The economic value of asset i with maturity T
under scenario s can be defined as the sum of the discounted cash flows:
K
X
EV s,i,T = DF s,i,k · CF s,i,T,k (3.18)
k=1
Where the discount factor equals:
DF s,i,k = e−rs,i,tk ·tk (3.19)
The third step is to determine the percentage of change per asset per
maturity under all interest rate scenarios. This percentage change serves
as a factor which can be scaled by the exposure in order to calculate the
change in economic value of an asset subclass under an alternative in-
terest rate scenario, due to the linear relationship between the change in
economic value of the asset and the principal of the asset. Because of this
linearization, the model has only to calculate the change in economic value
of an asset once, which increases the speed of the simulation. The factor of
asset i and maturity T for scenario s is calculated by:
EV i,T,0 − EV i,T,s
∆EV i,T,s = (3.20)
EV i,T,0
Finally, the change in the economic value of equity under scenario s
is calculated by taking the sum of the product of the ∆EV-factors and the
corresponding exposures plus the decrease in fair value of the automatic
interest rate options.
I X
X 19 J X
X 19
∆EVE s = ∆EV i,T,s · xi,T − ∆EV j,T,s · yj,T + KAO (3.21)
i=1 b=1 j=1 b=1
Where:
xi,T (yi,T ) = Amount of asset (liability) i (j) with maturity T
KAO = The decrease in fair value of automatic interest rate options
Where the decrease in fair value of the interest rate swaps in scenario i
is calculated by:
n
X m
X
KAO i = ∆FVAO oi − ∆FVAO qi (3.22)
o=1 q=1
Where:
KAO i = the add-on on the EVE-measure for scenario i
FVAO i = the fair value of the automatic option for scenario i
n(m) = number of options sold (bought)
Figure 3.3 illustrates the EVE-factors for NHG mortgages under the six
interest rate scenarios. In Figure 3.4 the effect of the parallel up-scenario on
the economic value of two loans is illustrated. It can be seen that due to the
earlier repayments of the mortgage, the change in economic value an asset
is less, since the effective duration is less than that of a bullet bond. The
impact of the alternative interest rate scenarios for the interest rate swaps
is calculated likewise and is illustrated in Figure 3.5.
F IGURE 3.3: EVE factors for NHG mortgages buckets.
Another thing to notice is that, although the initial shocks are symmet-
ric, the impacts of the shocks are not symmetric. One reason for this is that
positive shocks, i.e., shocks that increase the yield curve, tend to have less
impact than downward shocks. This can be seen in Table 3.4, where the
change in present value of a payment of 100 in ten years is illustrated. This
effect is also illustrated in Figure 3.3. Furthermore, the scenarios are also
subject to different factors of optionality which triggers a change in cash
flow. Finally, the interest rate floor is only triggered at short-term negative
shocks, which causes a change in magnitude of the shock and can cause
asymmetrical outcomes as well.
TABLE 3.4: Example of change in present value value of a 100

cash flow in ten years.
Scenario Present value Percentage change

Base 100 · e−0.02·10 = 81.87 -
+200bps 100 · e−0.04·10 = 67.03 -18.12%
-200bps 100 · e−0·10 = 100.00 22.14%
3.3.3 ∆Net Interest Income

As discussed in Chapter 2, a sufficient ∆EVE does not necessarily mean a
low interest rate risk exposure. The difference in net interest income is also
F IGURE 3.4: Change in value of bullet loan versus mortgage

with prepayment rate of 5% in a parallel up scenario.
set out by the BCBS as a vital measure (BCBS, 2016). The ∆NII measures
the change in interest income as a result of parallel interest rate shocks
within a certain time period. Since the ∆NII is calculated by using the
difference of the base rate and the shocked rate, it can be proved that the
change is approximately independent of the underlying interest rate of the
asset or liability and linear to the principal as pointed out by the BCBS
(2015). As with the ∆EVE, we determine the percentage change in net
interest income given fluctuations in the yield curve for every subclass and
use the exposure to scale it.
Consider an asset with principal N that reprices at time t. Until time t,
the asset will yield a rate rt . After repricing the asset will generate a yield
similar to the forward rate and will roll over over the time period from t to
H. For simplicity, the difference in cash flows is received at H as was done
in the calculations of the (BCBS, 2015). The total net interest income over
horizon H can be written as the sum of the net interest income over the
interest fixed period from 0 to t and sum of the net interest income over
period t to H:
NII 0,H = NII 0,t + NII t,H (3.23)

In the following calculation we define the NII as the net interest income
over the period as of t until the end of the horizon H. The total net interest
income is then given by:
F IGURE 3.5: Impact of interest rate swaps on ∆EVE.
h rH ·H−rt ·t i
NII = N · eFtH ·(H−t) − 1 = N · e H−t ·(H−t) − 1 = N · erH ·H−rt ·t − 1

(3.24)
The present value of the net interest income between t and T can be written
as:
P V (NII ) = N · erH ·H−rt ·t − 1 · e−rH ·H = N · e−rt ·t − e−rH ·H

(3.25)
We do the same for the shocks NII:
P V (NII )shocked = N · e−(rt +∆r)·t − e−(rt +∆r)·H

(3.26)
= N · e−∆r·t · e−rt ·t − e−∆r·H · e−rH ·H

Substituting the first-order expansion of the shock terms as done by the

BCBS (2015), e−∆r·t ≈ (1 − ∆r · t) and e−∆r·H ≈ (1 − ∆r · H), gives:
P V (NII )shocked = N · (1 − ∆r · t) · e−rt ·t − (1 − ∆r · H) · e−rH ·H

(3.27)
The difference in present value of the net interest incomes can now be cal-
culated by combining Formula 3.25 and Formula 3.27.
3.4. Simulation Input 35
∆P V (NII ) = P V (NII shocked ) − P V (NII base)

= N · ∆r · H · e−rH ·H − t · e−rt ·t (3.28)
= N · ∆r · (H · DF H − t · DF t )
Finally, the ∆NII , which is equal to −∆P V (NII ) can be written as (BCBS,
2015):
∆NII = N · ∆r · (t · DF t − H · DF H ) (3.29)
The factors for the decrease in interest income (II ) and interest expense (IE )
are determined by substituting N = 1 in Formula 3.29. As swap payments
occur quarterly and the reset date is the first of the new calculation period, t
is set to a fourth for all swaps. The NII-factor is then scaled by the exposure,
making the total ∆NII under scenario s:
I X
X 19 J X
X 19 K
X
∆NII s = ∆II i,T,s · xi,T − ∆IE j,T,s · yj,T + ∆SE o · ok (3.30)
i=1 b=1 j=1 b=1 k=1
Where:
xi,T (y i,T ) = Amount of asset (liability) i (j) with maturity T
ok = Notional of interest rate swap k
∆II = Factor for change in interest income
∆IE = Factor for change in interest expense
∆SE = Factor for change in swap payment
3.4 Simulation Input

One of the challenges is to construct a realistic banking book, since a bank’s
banking book is not publicly available. For many of our balance sheet ex-
posures, we cannot use credit spreads of bond data as we look at banks’
portfolios, which contain a wide range of non-traded assets and liabilities.
Instead, the distribution of our hypothetical bank’s portfolios and their re-
turns are constructed using different sources available to us.
3.4.1 Starting Exposures

Using data extracted from annual reports of comparable banks (e.g. Achmea
Bank (2015), Aegon Bank (2015), ASR Bank (2015) and Delta Lloyd Bank
(2015)) an allocation over assets and liabilities can be made. However, the
true challenge is to determine a plausible detailed distribution of balance
sheet items over repricing dates, as this is only broadly revealed in annual
reports. Furthermore, hedging activities, such as interest rate swap portfo-
lios, are not published nor publicly available.
To still construct a realistic distribution of mortgages over the repric-
ing buckets, we use two Dutch RMBS portfolios of ABN AMRO, namely
Dolphyn (Dolphin Master Issuer B.V., 2016) and Goldfish (Goldfish Master
Issuer B.V., 2016). Based on the sum of size of the underlying mortgage,
corresponding to roughly 15 percent of the total Dutch mortgages debt
outstanding (CBS), combined with a geographical coverage of the Nether-
lands, we think the RMBSs’ underlying mortgages are representative for a
Dutch mortgage portfolio. The distribution of the mortgages over repric-
ing dates are determined by using the remaining interest rate fixed period
of the underlying mortgages. Because the performance report of the non-
NHG RMBS does not specify the repricing per loan-to-value (LTV), we use
a single distribution of mortgages over repricing dates for the non-NHG
mortgages. The starting exposures, returns and regulatory risk factors are
listed in Appendix E.
3.4.2 Decision Space

In determining the decision space of a bank given a time period, we con-
sider multiple factors. The decision space is included in the model through
setting the lower and upper bounds of balance sheet items. Because we use
a point in time optimization of the balance sheet, one should first consider
the time period to take into account when setting the lower and upper
boundaries. We use boundaries based on a one year horizon as input vari-
ables. For determining the lower bound of a balance sheet item, the asset’s
availability for sale, liquidity and repayment of the principal given a time
period of one year are judged. In determining the upper bound of an as-
set, we consider the liquidity and expected possible new business. Here,
we assume that government bonds over a period of one year are liquid
and can be bought and sold unlimitedly. We furthermore do not include
transactions costs.
For mortgages, term deposits and covered bonds, we assume a five per-
cent annual repayment of the principal as discussed earlier. For mortgages,
we assume a possible acquisition of an additional five percent of the cur-
rent exposure, as well as for demand and savings deposits. Secured fund-
ing is subject to a ceiling of 130 percent of the current exposure. Normally,
covered bond programs come in big chunks. We relax this by assuming
covered bonds can also be obtained in lower amounts.
Other balance sheet items, such as bank loans, cash and equivalents,
other assets, other liabilities and equity, are seen as facilitating items and
are held constant over the simulation.
3.5 Conclusions
In this chapter, we introduced the model objective, restrictions and imple-
mentation of risk measures as well as discussed the input sources used to
construct our stylized balance sheet. With this, we answer the next set of
sub-questions:
• How does a typical balance sheet of a small Dutch bank look like?
3.5. Conclusions 37
Our stylized balance sheet, a simplified reflection of a small Dutch bank,

is constructed using average positions extracted from annual reports of
banks resembling our bank’s profile. For a more precise distribution of
mortgages over maturity classes, we used the remaining fixed interest rate
period of two Dutch RMBSs.
• How can the impact of setting a bank’s interest rate risk appetite be illus-
trated and how can this be used to create an improved balance sheet alloca-
tion?
For illustrating the impact of setting the interest rate risk appetite, our
model reallocates the assets and liabilities in an optimal manner in order to
optimize the interest rate spread given a defined decision space. This de-
cision space is based on a realistic shift given a horizon of one year. Here,
not only the impact, but also the balance sheet allocation is monitored in
order to illustrate possible shifts to improve the balance sheet allocation.
39
Chapter 4
Results
In the previous chapter, we described how we reallocate the balance sheet

items in order to improve the interest rate spread, how we quantify risk
exposures of our hypothetical bank and which building blocks we use for
constructing a representative balance sheet. In this chapter, we will use
this input to run the model in order to improve the spread given different
constraints, functioning as a bank’s risk appetite or regulatory constraints.
This chapter is organized as follows:
Current exposure and impact of short term funding. In Section 4.1,
we discuss the starting exposures of our balance sheet to different prudent
measures and illustrate the impact of a reallocation of covered bonds by
non-maturity deposits, i.e., demand and savings deposits.
Impact of interest rate measures. In Section 4.2 we illustrate the im-
pact of including non-parallel interest rate scenarios in determining the
EVE. Subsequently in Section 4.3, the risks of using only one interest rate
measures while improving the interest rate spread is lay out to illustrate
the need for both short-term and long-term measures. Furthermore, in
Section 4.4 we illustrate the interest rate risk taking when a capital require-
ment for interest rate risk is introduced. Section 4.5 treats an example of
a shift in balance sheet allocation to increase the interest rate spread while
remaining within the limits.
Impact of differences in regulation and client behavior. Finally, we
analyze the impact of increasing capital requirements in Section 4.6 and
perform sensitivity analyses in Section 4.7 in order to illustrate the effect
of changes in the stability of non-maturity deposits and the prepayment
behavior of mortgagors on the EVE.
4.1 Short-Term Versus Long-Term Funding

We first discuss the starting exposures of our balance sheet to different
prudential measures and analyze the impact of a reallocation of covered
bonds to short-term funding, i.e., demand and savings deposits. As an ex-
ample, we replace 15 percent of the total liabilities and equity placed in
covered bonds and reallocate this over the demand and savings deposits
while keeping a constant asset allocation. The interest rate swaps are ex-
cluded to illustrate the difference in exposures between the balance sheets.
Table 4.1 lists the output measures of the balance sheets as well as the in-
terest income and expense. Notable is that the starting LCR is extremely
40 Chapter 4. Results
high compared to the regulatory minimum. A comparison with the bal-

ance sheets used for constructing our balance sheet illustrates that this is
not unusual, as ASR Bank and Achmea Bank have liquidity coverage ra-
tios of 824 and 1027 percent respectively, due to low cash outflows or high
level of reserves. Furthermore, by replacing covered bonds by deposits the
liquidity decreases significantly, since the 30-day stress-cash outflow in-
creases. The increase in short-term funding decreases the interest expense
by 0.39.
When we compare the impact on alternative interest rate scenarios listed
in Table 4.2, we observe a difference in both EVE and NII. With the re-
placement of the bonds with deposits, we replace liabilities with typically
longer repricing dates by liabilities with shorter repricing dates. As a re-
sult, the mismatch increases for the parallel shocks and for shocks in the
short rate, as less net cash flows are now subject to differences in the short-
term rate due to the overnight deposits. Subsequently, the NII increases
substantially, due to the overnight repricing of the less stable deposits and
short-term repricing of the stable deposits.
TABLE 4.1: Starting balance sheet exposures.
No swaps + Deposits Starting exposure

NSFR 148,3% 119,3 % 148,3%
LCR 201.3% 140.3% 201.3%
TCR 15.2% 15.2% 14.8%
Leverage ratio 4.51% 4.51% 4.53%
Interest income 3.35 3.35 3.35
Interest expense 2.02 1.66 2.02
Swap expense - - 0.14
TABLE 4.2: Starting interest rate risk exposures.
Measure Scenario No swaps + Deposits Starting exposure

∆EVE Parallel up 61.74% 67.26% 2.89%
Parallel down -78.06% -91.86% -3.79%
Steepener 29.74% 27.48% 18.07%
Flattener -16.57% -13.42% -14.66%
Short rate up 0.92% 5.46% -18.13%
Short rate down -1.99% -7.64% 12.54%
∆NII 1 year Parallel up 3.21% 5.89% 0.41%
Parallel down -3.19% -5.88% -0.38%
∆NII 2 year Parallel up 4.66% 9.34% 1.58%
Parallel down -4.58% -9.23% -1.71%
For our starting position, we use a set of ten interest rate swaps to hedge
the parallel interest rate risk exposure to more appropriate values. We use a
solver to determine the allocation of interest rate swap to hedge the parallel
shocks in terms of both EVE and NII. As a result, the total capital ratio in
4.2. Parallel Versus Non-Parallel Shocks 41
the new starting balance sheet is slightly lower due to the extra risk weights
of the swaps. Furthermore, the interest rate spread is affected due to the
payment of swap rates. We observe a lower interest rate risk exposure
for parallel and steepener interest rate shocks by swapping long repricing
cash flows, i.e., 25 years, to three months repricing cash flows. However,
the equity volatility as a result of changes in the short-term rate rises, due
to an increase in short-term fixed interest periods. The difference in net
interest income arising from the non-maturity deposits is now covered by
the floating interest income of the swaps, resulting in a significantly lower
∆NII.
4.2 Parallel Versus Non-Parallel Shocks

With the new guidelines on IRRBB of 2016, four non-parallel shocks have
been added to the prescribed set of shocks. According to the BCBS, banks
must set formal limits and disclose the impact on changes in the slope and
shape of the yield curve (BCBS, 2016). Through this, the BCBS limits the
exposure to the risk associated with a change in the relative interest rates of
instruments at different tenors. However, the European Banking Author-
ity (EBA) excludes non-parallel shocks in calculating the EVE (EBA, 2015).
To illustrate the impact of setting formal limits on the four new shocks in
addition to the two parallel shocks, we run the simulation with different
shocks as input for the calculation of the EVE. In Figure 4.1 the improved
spreads given variable limits on the EVE are visualized. Here, the EVE is
built up using the following sets of shocks:
• Set 1 - Only parallel shocks
• Set 2 - All six prescribed shocks
The limits on the other ratio’s correspond to the starting values of the
balance sheet:
Set = [TCR, LR, LCR, NSFR] (4.1)
Set = [14.86%, 3.5%, 201%, 148%] (4.2)

It is interesting to see that limiting the EVE based on only parallel shifts
of 200bps does not affect the return on equity as much as basing the EVE
on the set of six shocks. This is due to excessive exposures in non-parallel
scenarios. The model tends to hedge the limits on only the parallel shocks
by simply hedging the parallel exposure with long-term swaps and bonds.
This results in a small impact on potential parallel shocks, but still high
exposures on non-parallel shocks as cash flows are not matched. With lim-
iting only the parallel shocks, the exposures on the steepener and short rate
down scenario remain high, namely 44 and 25 percent respectively. This
indicates that the former limit of 20 percent of a bank’s total capital on par-
allel shocks is not an appropriate standalone indicator of a bank’s interest
F IGURE 4.1: Impact of including non-parallel shocks.
rate risk appetite as non-parallel shifts could still have a great impact on
the equity of a bank.
4.3 Short-Term Versus Long-Term Focus

A bank is obliged to set formal limits against the change in economic value
and net interest income resulting from shocks to the yield curve. To show
the direct impact of setting these limits, we improve the spread using dif-
ferent boundaries for EVE and NII.
By adjusting the limits on EVE, we restrict the term transformation
by limiting the mismatch between repricing dates of assets and liabilities.
Limiting the NII restricts the mismatch between repricing dates in the first
year, which stabilizes the net interest income.
In Section 2.4 we laid out that the economic value tends to be a measure
appropriate for the long-term interest rate risk, as all assets and liabilities
are revalued. This way, all future cash flows are included in the calculation.
Earnings-based measures focus on the short- to middle-long-term. We run
two simulations, each focusing primarily on one of the two measures in or-
der to illustrate the effects of managing IRRBB solely in terms of economic
value or earnings. The regulatory maximum of 15 percent for the EVE is
still applied for the earning-based measure, whereas the NII has no limit
while focusing on the long-term impact.
The optimization of the spread with a long-term focus, i.e., a limited
EVE, can be seen in Figure 4.2a. Increasing the maximum EVE from a con-
servative four percent to the regulatory maximum of 15 percent allows our
bank to increase its return on equity with 1.12 percent to 5.83 percent. In
Figure 4.2b the shadow values of the NII are illustrated. Focusing entirely
4.3. Short-Term Versus Long-Term Focus 43
( A ) RoE ( B ) ∆NII
F IGURE 4.2: Long-term focus.
on long-term measures, such as the EVE, can result in high earnings volatil-
ity of up to an NII of six percent of the bank’s equity in our model. This
means that in case of one of the two parallel alternative interest rate sce-
narios, the return on equity can deviate with six percent points a year.
Focusing entirely on earnings-based measures results in low earnings
volatility over the evaluation horizon by definition. Using the one year
NII-measure as control measure results in a relatively high return on eq-
uity of 5.79 percent. Our model looks for a reallocation of its assets and
liabilities which maximizes the interest rate spread. From a credit risk per-
spective, our model allocates the assets to maximize its return given the
allowed credit risk-weight exposure of the assets. The same is the case for
the interest rate risk exposure. Our model allocates the balance sheet items
such that the maximum impact given adverse interest rate scenarios re-
mains within limits. Therefore, it makes sense that the model exposes our
bank to the maximum EVE threshold of 15 percent in two shocks scenar-
ios in order to pursue its maximum yield, as can be seen in Table 4.3. The
impact of the NII on the return on equity is less than the impact of limiting
the EVE, as it only takes into account the mispricing in the first year, which
our bank hedges with one year swaps. Since these one year swaps affect
the term transformation only for a small amount, the effect on the return
on equity is not substantial. Furthermore, we evaluate our bank’s two year
NII in this scenario, which has a value of 3.80 percent of its equity, indicat-
ing that focusing on one year NII and the maximum EVE threshold of 15
percent can still result in a high middle-term earnings volatility. This also
suggests that keeping the one year NII at the desired level could become
costly due to the rollover of the hedging instruments against unfavorable
rates.
In the previous examples we illustrated the impact of using only one
of the two interest rate measures and laid out the need of combining both
constraints in the model. In Figure 4.3 we improve the balance sheet using
increasing limits on the EVE and NII. We use the balance sheet allocation
of the best previous outcome as input for the next run. We plotted the
outcome in a surface plot to illustrate the impact of the two measures on
the return on equity of our bank. Although the interest rate swaps have no
fair value, the annual fixed interest payments do have a negative impact on
F IGURE 4.3: Impact of setting IRRBB risk appetite on return

on equity.
4.4. Including Capital Requirements 45
TABLE 4.3: EVE values while focusing on NII.
Shock Impact on EVE

Parallel up 15.00%
Parallel down -17.36%
Steepener 15.00%
Flattener -9.98%
Short rate up -8.89%
Short rate down 7.25%
the return on equity. Given the maximization of short-term profits, i.e., the
maximization of the return on equity, we can conclude a clear incentive
for the bank to take on more interest rate risks in terms of both earnings
and economic value perspective, despite the option to hedge its exposure
freely in terms of value. We observe a slightly downward sloping curve
for limiting the EVE, indicating that further decreasing the change in the
economic value is relatively more expensive in terms of interest rate spread
than applying a looser EVE. The earnings volatility can be hedged cheaply
compared to the economic value volatility, since only the cash flows of the
first year are taken into account. However, we observe higher potential
rollover costs in case of a higher EVE, as the gaps of maturities exceeding
one year are bigger.
4.4 Including Capital Requirements

In the previous simulation, we used an abundant total capital ratio of 14.86
percent as minimum capital requirement. Here, the total capital ratio was
based on the risk weighted exposure amount for credit risk completed with
the weighted exposure for counterparty credit risk, the CVA capital charge
and operational risk, as described in the Capital Requirement Directive IV
(CRD IV) (European Parliament and the Council of the European Union,
2013). However, banks also need to hold capital for their interest rate risk
exposure in the banking book. In the following simulation, we add the risk
weighted exposure for interest rate risk to the total risk exposure amount.
We define the risk weighted exposure for interest rate risk as 12.5 (the re-
ciprocal of the minimum capital ratio of eight percent) times the ∆EVE.
Following from this, the total capital ratio can be defined as:
y6
TCR new = (4.3)
TREAnew
Where the new total risk exposure amount equals:
TREAnew = TREAregulatory + 12.5 · max(∆EVE i ) (4.4)
As a great part of the Pillar 2 capital is now covered in the total capital
ratio, we decrease the limit of the total capital ratio with weighted interest
rate risk exposure of 15% of its capital, making the the total capital ratio
( A ) RoE ( B ) ∆EVE
F IGURE 4.4: Simulation including a capital charge for IRRBB.
12.09 percent. Now, our hypothetical bank must allocate its equity over
the different TREA building blocks. The first thing to notice in Figure 4.4a
is that by adding a capital charge for IRRBB, increasing the EVE limit has
only effect to a certain point on the return on equity. This indicates that
given a total capital ratio of 12.09 percent the maximum EVE threshold
of 15 percent is not sought, since the capital is allocated over other risk
exposures, mainly by increasing its credit risk exposure. Figure 4.4b shows
the actual EVE values for the simulation, which confirms the observation
that the maximum threshold is not sought.
4.5 Improving Our Balance Sheet

Now we have introduced all the risk measures and illustrated their contri-
bution to a prudent balance sheet allocation, we run our model given the
following set of constraints:
Set = [TCR new , LR, LCR, NSFR, ∆EVE , ∆NII ] (4.5)
Set = [12.09%, 3.5%, 201%, 148%, 10%, 1%] (4.6)

Given the starting balance sheet and decision space described in Chapter 3,
we reallocate the assets and liabilities in order to improve the interest rate
spread of our bank within limits of its risk appetite. The first thing to notice
in Figure E.4 (Appendix E) is that no term deposits are reallocated, as it is
outranked by covered bonds. Moreover, on the funding side we observe a
reallocation in long-term covered bonds combined with both demand and
savings deposits. We furthermore observe a change in dynamics of liquid-
ity: due to a decrease in covered bonds, the stressed cash outflow increases,
which obligates our bank to increase its amount of high quality liquid as-
sets. Subsequently, the less profitable AA- government bonds combined
with increased mortgages lending are favored by our model over the A- to
A+ government bonds.
Subsequently, we observe an EVE of eight percent, which indicates that
given the decision space and EVE as capital indicator a decrease in interest
4.6. Change in Capital Requirements 47
rate risk exposure the maximum is not sought, leaving more capital to be
allocated to credit risk exposure. The new available exposure on our TREA
is filled with credit risk exposure by increasing the lending of more risky
mortgages. Finally, we see a decrease in mortgages with a loan-to-value of
less than 60 percent, as the NHG mortgages yield similar returns against
less credit risk exposure.
4.6 Change in Capital Requirements

Under Basel III banks face stricter capital requirements, increasing the total
capital ratio to a minimum of eight percent with an additional 2.5 percent
capital conservation buffer. The goal of this more stringent capital ratio is
to increase banks’ resilience to future financial downturns. This ratio can
be improved by raising equity or reducing the risk exposure. In our model
we assume a fixed amount of equity, reducing the alternatives to increase
its total capital ratio to decreasing its total risk exposure amount. To reveal
the impact of tighter capital requirements, we illustrate the development
of our bank’s return on equity, interest rate risk and building blocks of the
total risk exposure amount in case of a change in capital requirements.
( A ) RoE ( B ) ∆EVE
F IGURE 4.5: Change in capital requirements.
In Figure 4.5a the impact on the return on equity is illustrated. We ob-

serve a steep decrease in return in case of tighter capital regulations. The
argument explaining the decrease in maximum interest rate spread is the
limitation of maximum risk the bank can take. The bank needs to adapt its
risk taking as a result of changes in capital requirements. In our model this
is done through altering its total risk exposure amount. One way for a bank
to decrease its risk exposure is by decreasing the riskiness of its assets by
investing in less risky assets, for instance NHG mortgages or government
bonds. Another way is to hedge its interest rate risk exposure by decreas-
ing the difference in repricing between assets and liabilities. Although the
weighted credit risk exposure is also affected by changes in capital require-
ments, we mainly observe the latter. Figure 4.5b and Figure 4.6 illustrate
it is more profitable to decrease interest rate exposure in case of increased
capital requirements when using the EVE as capital indicator.
F IGURE 4.6: Development of TREA components while alter-

ing the total capital ratio.
4.7 Change in Optionality

Although the standardized EVE introduced by the BCBS limits the space
for banks to use their own internal estimations, banks still have several
modeling possibilities due to optionality. Especially, the inclusion of com-
mercial margins and the repricing assumptions are seen as factors that
make the comparison across banks not directly comparable. Banks are
afraid investors know too little of this difficult topic to fully understand
the impact of the EVE disclosures, as these measures are partly affected by
modeling assumptions (Contiguglia, 2016). The calculation of our hypo-
thetical bank’s EVE is also subject to modeling assumptions. In this sec-
tion we illustrate the impact of changes in the stability of deposits by al-
tering the maximum average duration of the non-maturity deposits, and
changes in prepayment behavior by altering the conditional prepayment
rate of mortgagors.
4.7.1 Stability of Deposits

We perform a sensitivity analysis to show the direct impact of the aver-
age duration of our NMD’s on the EVE of our starting balance sheet while
keeping the pass-through rate and stability cap the same. This is illustrated
in two steps. Firstly, we illustrate the changed EVE-factors of non-maturity
deposits, i.e., the percentage decrease in economic value, as described in
section 3.3.2, which can be seen in Figure 4.7a. Here can be seen that the
4.7. Change in Optionality 49
( A ) ∆EVE factors ( B ) ∆EVE
F IGURE 4.7: Impact of a change in the average duration of

core NMDs on the EVE.
change in economic value is bigger when the average duration of core de-
posits is longer. Subsequently, we use these factors as new input in order to
visualize the impact on balance sheet level for all six shocks to determine
the impact on the disclosed EVE.
Figure 4.7b illustrates the EVE values for a constant balance sheet under
different NMD repricing assumptions. Our hypothetical bank is funded
by 28.20 percent non maturity deposits, which is low compared to the
49.50 percent overnight deposits to total EU household savings (Euro Area
Statistics). Despite this, the EVE is affected heavily by a change in dura-
tion, in particular for the parallel shocks. A low duration of core deposits,
i.e., less stable deposits, increases the magnitude of the alternative interest
scenarios on balance sheet level, as deposits reprice earlier, which increases
the gap between the repricing maturities of assets and liabilities. We fur-
thermore observe that for an average duration of core deposits of two years
and less, deposits are found not efficient compared to other short-term
funding sources, as our model decreased its position instead of allocating
new business. At this point, the benefits of the deposits, i.e., the low in-
terest expenses, do not weight the disadvantages, i.e., the instability in the
form of a high stressed cash-outflow factor and relatively low duration.
Moreover, more stable funding with a higher duration against the same
interest expense is possible in the form of covered bonds.
4.7.2 Prepayment Behavior of Mortgagors

The second source of optionality we analyze is the conditional prepayment
rate. Given an optimal value-minimizing call policy, a mortgage should
never be paid off early when the refinancing cost exceeds the coupon value.
Similarly, a mortgage should be paid off early if the current coupon exceeds
its refinancing costs. However, in both cases we see mortgagors not always
act rationally, as in the former scenario prepayments still occur and in the
latter scenario the maximum amount of prepayments are not made (Dunn
and McConnell, 1981). In the current standardized EVE measure, the pre-
payment rates are stressed by 20 percent to reflect the change in prepay-
ment behavior. We illustrate the sensitivity of change in prepayment rates
( A ) CPR stress factor
( B ) CPR
F IGURE 4.8: Impact of a change in the prepayment behavior

on the EVE.
in two manners. Firstly, we stress the magnitude of the change in prepay-

ment rates by increasing the stress factors of the CPR, which will result in
higher differences in duration of mortgages across alternative interest rate
scenarios. Lastly, we illustrate what a change in expected base CPR will
cause in terms of EVE.
Figure 4.8a illustrates that by increasing the stress factor for interest
rate scenarios, the magnitude of the EVE increases. The parallel shocks are
affected the most followed by the steepener and flattener scenarios. An
increase in rationality regarding the optimal value-minimizing call policy
4.8. Conclusions 51
described above would result in an increasing difference in cash flow un-

der the interest rate scenarios compared to the base case. This will, as Fig-
ure 4.8a shows, result in higher economic capital losses or less economic
capital gains under alternative interest rate scenarios.
Besides, a change in expected prepayment behavior in the base case
can also result in different values for the EVE. Although prepayment rates
are based on multiple years of payment data, a change in the conditional
prepayment rate can cause an offset in the EVE values on the longer term.
Figure 4.8b indicates that given a constant balance sheet, an increase in
prepayment rates of one percent causes an increase in EVE of 8.88 percent
for the parallel down scenario due to premature cash flows. Likewise, a
decrease in prepayment rates of one percent causes an increase of 5.48 per-
cent for the parallel up scenario due to a longer duration. The third and
fourth scenario are less affected. Finally, the shocks in the short rates are
hardly affected, due to the fact that these scenarios do not shock the yield
curve for longer maturities.
4.8 Conclusions
This chapter answers the remaining sub-questions:
• How severely does a bank’s interest rate risk appetite affect its earnings?
We previously defined the interest rate risk appetite by a combination of

both the EVE and NII. We illustrated the effect of setting our stylized bank’s
interest rate appetite using different limits on the EVE and NII. We ob-
served that the EVE limits term transformation over all assets and liabili-
ties, and with this, has the biggest impact on the interest rate spread. In-
creasing the EVE from a conservative 4% to the maximum threshold of
15% increased the return on equity with 1.12%. The NII could be hedged
relatively cheaply by our model using one year swap contracts and has
little impact on the interest rate spread. However, the observed two year
NII was, even though the one year NII and EVE were within boundaries,
still substantial, which could result in high rollover costs of hedging instru-
ments.
• What is the impact of stricter capital requirements on the potential interest

rate spread and the impact of changes in key modeling assumptions on the
interest rate risk exposure of a bank?
We included the weighted interest rate risk exposure in the total risk ex-
posure amount. Here, the total capital ratio is used as a scalar for capital
requirements. We observed that the interest rate risk taking is more af-
fected by an increase in capital requirement than other TREA components.
This indicates that, given the capital indicator of 12.5 times the EVE used,
the return per allocated capital is higher for credit risk exposure.
Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis concluded that our bank’s interest

rate risk exposure is highly affected by changes in the model parameters
reflecting the optionality embedded in banking products. This indicates
option risk is something banks should monitor properly, as a bank’s inter-
est rate risk exposure over time could be affected by changes in the stability
of non-maturity deposits and client prepayment behavior. An opportunis-
tic estimation of these parameters could therefore result in a severe under-
estimation of a bank’s interest rate risk exposure.
53
Chapter 5
Conclusion, Discussion and

Further Research
The current low interest environment combined with increasing compe-

tition results in more risk taking by banks in order to still make decent
earnings (Memmel, 2011). The BCBS introduced new guidelines on how
to manage interest rate risk to promote a resilient and balanced interest
rate risk appetite. We used these guidelines complemented by other reg-
ulatory requirements to see the impact of interest rate risk measures on a
bank’s risk taking, behavior and return on equity and with this, addressed
a method for improving a bank’s balance sheet.
Firstly, we discuss our findings and address the answer to our main
question: What would be the impact of stricter regulation on interest rate risk in
the banking book and how could a bank improve its balance sheet given its interest
rate risk appetite?. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations and possibilities
for further research.
5.1 Conclusions
We illustrated the effect of including non-parallel shifts in the yield curve
in the EVE calculation. Although the required capital for interest rate risk
is not affected solely by parallel shocks yield curves, banks are obliged to
disclose parallel shocks of 200bps to the public to promote greater trans-
parency and comparability. We observed that disclosing values of paral-
lel shocks does not reflect the interest risk taking of a bank properly, as
our bank could expose itself heavily to non-parallel shocks. As a result,
the objective in form of the return on equity was not affected much by
further restricting exposures to parallel shocks only. However, including
non-parallel shocks in the simulation resulted in a decrease in exposure to
non-parallel scenarios for our hypothetical bank by matching the repricing
maturities more properly. As a result, the return on equity also decreased
by roughly 1.1 percent for conservative IRRBB limits (EVE of four percent)
and 0.5 percent for a more risky IRRBB appetite (EVE of 15 percent) com-
pared to restricting only parallel shocks.
Going forward, we showed that a balance sheet allocation considering
only long-term measures while optimizing the short-term returns could
54 Chapter 5. Conclusion, Discussion and Further Research
result in a high earnings volatility on the short-term of as much as six per-

cent. On the other hand, by focusing solely on a one year change in net
interest income, our hypothetical bank will expose itself to the maximum
EVE threshold in its search for yield as would be expected. Following from
this, the two year difference in net interest income following from interest
rate shocks can also be significant, which can result in high rollover cost of
hedging instruments in order to keep the one year NII at the desired level.
Banks are obliged to hold capital for interest rate risk according to the
internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP). To complete our
model, we used the proposed standardized method of the BCBS to com-
pute the risk weighted exposure amount for interest rate risk as an ap-
proximation for the required capital for interest rate risk. We implemented
this charge by including this weighted exposure as a building block of a
bank’s total risk exposure amount. By doing so, we included capital for
interest rate risk in the banking book in the total capital ratio. What we
observed during the simulation, is that the amount of required capital for
interest rate risk has a negative correlation with interest rate risk taking
of our bank as would be expected. We also observed that the regulatory
thresholds on the EVE are not sought while improving the spread in case
IRRBB risk taking is included in the capital allocation in the form of 12.5
times the EVE. Instead, our hypothetical bank searches for an optimum be-
tween the allocation of capital over credit risk and interest rate risk to max-
imize the interest rate spread. This optimum is found at an EVE of eight
percent for a total capital ratio of 12 percent. Subsequently, the weighted
interest rate risk exposure amount decreased more during tighter capital
standards compared to the weighted credit risk exposure amount. Our
findings indicate that, by using the EVE measure as capital indicator, in-
terest rate risk taking is more sensitive to tighter capital requirements than
credit risk taking. The reasons for that are a lower return in relation to
the required capital and the possibility to decrease its exposure through
interest rate swaps.
In Basel’s latest guidelines on interest rate risk in the banking book we
already observed more flexible caps on the amount of core deposits, the
maximum average duration of non-maturity deposits and the magnitude
of the prepayment rate shocks compared to the draft version of 2015. This
leaves more space for banks to fill in these parameters according to their in-
ternal measurements, which supports limiting the gap between standard-
ized measures and outcomes resulting from internal models. Our findings
underline this decision space for banks to fill in these parameters according
to their best estimation, as our findings show that a bank’s EVE is highly
dependent on model assumptions regarding both the sources of optional-
ity included in our model. We also conclude that a change in optionality is
a risk banks should consider with great care, as we showed that changes in
optionality embedded in banking products and deposits can cause signif-
icant changes in future EVE values. An opportunistic estimation of these
parameters could therefore result in a severe underestimation of a bank’s
interest rate risk exposure.
5.2. Discussion and Further Research 55
In summary, our main three conclusions towards answering our re-

search question are:
1. As implied by the BCBS, a combination of limits on both NII and

EVE is necessary in order to install a prudent interest rate risk man-
agement. While maximizing the return on equity, a bank will expose
itself to the maximum EVE-threshold, likely under multiple alterna-
tive interest rate scenarios, in order to maximize the yield from term
transformation. The NII measure has little impact on the interest rate
spread, but is of essence in order to limit earnings volatility. How-
ever, the one year NII combined with relatively loose limits on the
EVE might not be sufficient, as we laid out that the resulting two
year NII could result in high rollover costs of hedging instruments.
2. Including a direct capital requirement for a bank’s interest rate expo-

sure in the form of 12.5 times the standardized EVE measure has a
degrading effect on interest rate risk taking, as the return on required
capital is higher for credit risk compared to interest rate risk this way.
3. A bank’s interest rate risk exposure is highly sensitive to assump-

tions in optionality. Even small changes in clients’ rationality regard-
ing prepayment, i.e., a change in the prepayment multiplier under
alternative scenarios, and in repricing characteristics of non-maturity
deposits could result in a significant change in a bank’s interest rate
risk exposure.
Using the proposed model, a bank can get insights in a more profitable
balance sheet allocation giving restrictions on prudential measures, visu-
alize the impact of interest rate risk limits on its potential expected return,
as well as determine the impact of possible changes in client behavior as
result of behavioral optionality embedded in banking products.
5.2 Discussion and Further Research

With our thesis we proposed a method to incorporate interest rate risk
measures in balance sheet improvement using a point in time optimiza-
tion given a set of assets and decision space. By using this model, we illus-
trated the impact of more severe interest rate regulations in terms of NII
and EVE exposure and capital requirements while improving a bank’s re-
turn on equity. However, creating a complete representation of the reality
is nearly impossible. For the balance sheet input, we were bounded by the
available balance sheet data, hence we were forced to make assumptions
on distributions of assets’ and liabilities’ cash flows and fixed interest rate
periods. We covered this by using available performance reports of Dutch
RMBSs, annual reports and assumed the uniform distribution for allocat-
ing assets of repricing maturities where needed. Furthermore, due to a
lack of data about realistic interest rate swap portfolios, we used the cur-
rent swap rates to hedge our starting exposure, using a set of ten swaps.
56 Chapter 5. Conclusion, Discussion and Further Research
As interest rates are currently lower than ten years ago, the swap expenses
tend to be less compared to real swap expenses of a bank. Subsequently,
interest rate swaps are traded over the counter and can be customized to
a bank’s need. By assuming a set of only ten interest rate swaps, only the
notional amounts between swap maturities can be determined. In order
to make it more representative, interest rate swap exposures could be in-
cluded in more detail. Moreover, we assumed our bank can influence its
new acquired mortgages with a high level of precision. In real life, banks
are less able to determine this acquisition. However, a bank is able to hedge
its interest rate exposure more precisely to match repricing dates using cus-
tomized notional amounts. This partly compensates for the discussed in-
efficiency, as swap rates resemble the change in interest fixed period for
mortgages.
Our model indicates an optimal distribution of capital given a maxi-
mum level of risk exposure. Yet, it does not advise on the level of capital,
nor we included other forms of capital than Tier 1 capital. Moreover, we
do not include transaction costs, which a bank does pay in switching posi-
tions.
We included the main sources of embedded optionality in our model.
Other forms of optionality, for instance embedded options to extend the
duration or change interest rate characteristics, are not covered, but can
cause a change in cash flows and interest rate fixed periods under interest
rate scenarios.
57
Appendix A
Interest Rate Scenarios
In our model, we quantify the interest exposure of our hypothetical bank

by determining the impact of interest rate shocks on its economic value
and earnings. We use six prescribed shocks who cover all possible yield
curve movements. More on the calculation of these shocks can be found in
BCBS (2016).
The first scenario we use is a parallel shift upwards. For all maturities,
so for every time bucket, the yield curve increases with the same amount.
The conditional prepayment rate of fixed loans decreases with 20 percent,
while the term deposit redemption rate increases with this same number
for this stress scenario. The same is the case for the second scenario, where
interest rates for every time bucket decreases with a prescribed number.
The decrease of interest rates results in a higher conditional prepayment
rate of fixed loans (+20 percent) and a lower term deposit redemption rate
(-20 percent).
Expectations of investors about future interest rates can alter the steep-
ness of the yield curve. Under the third scenario, interest rates are altered
to create a steepener yield curve: interest rates for shorter maturities will
be decreased and longer maturity rates will be increased. Subsequently,
this scenario comes includes a decrease in the amount of prepayments on
fixed loans and with a lower term deposit redemption rate. For the fourth
scenario, a flattener yield curve, the effect the other way around.
The fifth and sixth scenario cover the changes in the short rate. The
same effect on prepayments and deposit redemption rates as the parallel
shocks are applicable for these scenarios. A summary of the scenarios and
multipliers can be seen in Table A.1. The final shocks to the maturity buck-
ets can be seen in Figure A.1. The base and alternative interest rate curves
are illustrated in Figure A.2.
TABLE A.1: Interest rate shock-scenarios and multipliers.
Number (i) Scenario CPR multiplier TDRR multiplier

1 Parallel up 0.8 1.2
2 Parallel down 1.2 0.8
3 Steepener 0.8 1.2
4 Flattener 1.2 0.8
5 Short rate up 0.8 1.2
6 Short rate down 1.2 0.8
58 Appendix A. Interest Rate Scenarios
F IGURE A.1: Euro interest rate shock scenarios set out by the
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
F IGURE A.2: Base and alternative interest rate scenarios.

59
Appendix B
Distribution of non-maturity
deposits
Definition B.1. Non-maturity deposits are liability instruments for which

there are two embedded options: one held by the bank (the right to change
the interest rate) and a second held by the depositor (the right to withdraw
its funds).
Due to the behavioral factor, NMDs can cause uncertainty and with
this, potential future interest rate exposure. Furthermore, behavioral risk
is heterogeneous, as factors rely on several parameters, such as the age of
customers and geographic location. An example of heterogeneous option-
ality is the conditional prepayment rate (CPR), which we included in our
model. In the Netherlands, clients are allowed to pay an additional 10% of
their mortgage annually without receiving a penalty for it. In other coun-
tries, often other contractual terms are set regarding prepayment.
Banks use behavioral models to forecast the extend of withdrawals of
depositors, but outcomes across banks can be very different, which makes
comparing interest rate risk exposure across banks hard. Regulators ac-
knowledge the heterogeneity, but restrict the average duration, as it can
cause an underestimation of interest rate risk. In the consultation paper on
IRRBB (BCBS, 2015), the BCBS proposed a more strict treatment of NMDs,
with a maximum repricing date of 5 years versus an average of 4.5 and
5 years in the final guidelines (BCBS, 2016). For our model we use two
types of non-maturity deposits: demand deposits and savings deposits.
For these NMDs, we combine the treatment for NMDs proposed in the
consultation paper with the restrictions of the final guidelines by using
the Time Series Approach (TSA). For this, we distribute the NMDs over
transactional and non-transactional deposits. The Stability cap and Pass-
through floor can be seen in Figure B.1. We determine the stable amount
of these deposits and determine the amount of core deposits, given by the
stability cap:
Amount of core deposits = N · S · (1 − P ) (B.1)

Where:
N = the total amount of deposits
S = the stability cap
P = the pass-through floor
60 Appendix B. Distribution of non-maturity deposits
F IGURE B.1: Subclasses of non-maturity deposits.
TABLE B.1: Stability caps and pass-through floors for NMDs.
Stability cap (%) Pass-through floor (%) Implied cap (%)

Demand deposits 80 25 60 (=0.8 ·(1-0.25))
Savings deposits 70 30 49
All core deposits are uniformly distributed such that the average repric-
ing time equals the maximum average repricing time described in the fi-
nal guidelines. Non-core deposits are seen as not stable, and are therefore
slotted in the overnight bucket. The final distribution is illustrated in Fig-
ure B.2.
Appendix B. Distribution of non-maturity deposits 61
F IGURE B.2: Distributions of demand deposits and savings

deposits over buckets.
63
Appendix C
Interest rate swaps
Despite that the fair value of the interest rate swaps at starting point in
the simulation equals zero, interest rate swaps do have an impact on risk
measures. In this section, we will elaborate on the impact of interest rate
swaps on the ∆EVE, ∆NII and the additional capital requirements as a
result of counterparty credit risk and credit value adjustment.
C.1 Impact On Economic Value And Net Interest

Income
For our model we use four interest rate swaps with different maturities.
To include the swaps without placing them on the balance sheet, we deter-
mine the par coupon, such that the fair value of the swaps equal zero.
TABLE C.1: Par rates interest rate swap (source: Bloomberg).
Time to maturity Par coupon

1 year -0.28508%
2 year -0.23082%
3 year -0.15883%
4 year -0.07302%
5 year 0.03263%
10 year 0.65343%
12.5 year 0.88955%
15 year 1.06439%
17.5 year 1.16122%
20 year 1.24902%
C.2 Counterparty Credit Risk

The counterparty credit risk is calculated using the standardized coun-
terparty credit risk approach (BCBS, 2014b). This calculation consist of
two components: a risk weight and the exposure amount, where the ex-
posure amount is the sum of the replacement cost (RC) and the potential
64 Appendix C. Interest rate swaps
future earnings (PFE) multiplied by a factor alpha, which equals 1.4, writ-
ten mathematically:
Exposure at default under SA = EAD = alpha · (RC + PFE ) (C.1)
Since we use fixed par rates, resulting in a fair value of the interest rate of
zero, the replacement cost are zero. The potential future exposure can be
calculated using the formula:
type
PFE = SF IR · |δi · dIR
i · MF i | (C.2)
Where:
SF = supervisory factor, for interest rate swaps equal to 0.5%.
δi = supervisory delta.
dIR
i = adjusted notional.
MF type
i = maturity factor, which is 1 for maturities higher than one year.
exp(−0.05 · Si ) − exp(−0.05 · Ei )
dIR
i = T radeN otional · (C.3)
0.05
Where:
Si = begin date of swap i
Ei = end date of swap i
The potential future exposure is multiplied by the risk weight of the

counterparty, in our case a bank, to determine the counterparty credit risk
exposure.
C.3 Credit Valuation Adjustment

The CVA capital charge is calculated using the standard approach described
in article 384 of the CRR (BCBS, 2014b). Based on this method, the capital
charge is calculated as the sum of all CVA capital charges calculated on
counterparty level. For simplicity we assume that all interest rate swaps
are with one counterparty. The CVA capital charge can be calculated using
the following formula:
√ s X hedge
X X hedge
K = 2.33· h· ( 0.5 · wi · (Mi · EAD total
i − Mi · Bi − wind · Mind · Bind )2 + 0.75 · wi2 · (Mi · EAD total
i ) − Mi · Bi )2
i ind i
(C.4)
As we do not include CVA hedges, the calculation can be simplified to:

v !2
u
√ u X
total
X 2
K = 2.33· h·t 0.5 · wi · Mi · EAD i + 0.75 · wi2 · Mi · EAD total
i
i i
(C.5)
Where:
C.3. Credit Valuation Adjustment 65
h = the one-year risk horizon in units of a year "1"

wi = the counterparty weight of i
EAD total
i = the exposure at default of counterparty i
Mi = the effective maturity of the transactions with counterparty i
67
Appendix D
Risk Measures
D.1 Capital Requirements

D.1.1 Total Capital Ratio
The minimum amount of capital is determined through the calculation of
the Total Risk Exposure Amount (TREA). According to the minimum cap-
ital requirement, the capital divided by the sum of risk exposure of a bank
(i.e. interest rate risk exposure excluded) should be higher than 10.5% (Eu-
ropean Parliament and the Council of the European Union, 2013).
y6
TCR = ≥ 10.5% (D.1)
TREA
We define the following building blocks of the TREA of our bank:
• Credit risk exposure. We calculate this exposure using the standard-

ized approach in which assets get a defined risk weight. For the
weighting scheme of assets we refer to Table E.2.
• Operational Risk Exposure, which is calculated by taking 15 percent

of the annual gross income.
• Exposure as a result of derivative exposure, for which we refer to

Appendix C.
In a later scenario, we include an approximation for interest rate risk by

adding the interest rate exposure to our bank’s TREA in order to determine
the minimum capital requirement on interest rate risk in the banking book:
• Interest rate risk exposure, 12.5 (i.e. the inverse of the minimum 8%
risk-based capital requirement) times the EVE-measure.
The TCR of the proxy banks used for constructing our stylized balance
sheet variates between 15.5 and 19.3 percent. A note should be made that
these values only include exposures captured in pillar 1 and so do not re-
flect all risks, hence the relatively big difference compared to the regulatory
minimum.
68 Appendix D. Risk Measures
D.1.2 Leverage Ratio

One of the causes cause of the global financial crisis was the build-up of
excessive on- and off-balance sheet leverage in the banking system. In
many cases, banks built up excessive leverage while apparently maintain-
ing strong risk-based capital ratios. Therefor, the BCBS finds the leverage
ratio (Formula D.2) a necessary supplementary measure to the risk-based
capital measures. More on the leverage ratio can be found in Basel III lever-
age ratio framework and disclosure requirements (BCBS, 2004a).
Capital measure
Leverage ratio = ≥ 3% (D.2)
Exposure measure
D.2 Liquidity
The first known literature on liquidity risk dates from 1876, when Knies
(1976) stressed the need for cash buffers to compensate for possible gaps
between cash in and out flows of banks in case the precise maturity could
not be controlled.
Liquidity risk encompasses the risk a bank may be unable to meet short
term financial demands and results from size and maturity mismatches of
assets and liabilities (Bessis, 2011). A bank with long-term commitments
and short-term funding generates cash-flow deficits. The liquidity risk re-
sults from insufficient resources to fund the long term assets, as a result
of a decrease in available funds. Liquid assets, such as cash and govern-
ment bonds, protect banks from market tension, as they can be used as
alternative source of funding for short term obligations. The cost of liq-
uidity for banks often refers to the cost of maintaining liquidity ratios at a
an adequate level, i.e. generate more stable long-term funding or holding
sufficient HQLA.
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the focus of the BCBS on liquid-
ity risk has increased. Despite their adequate capital levels, many banks
experienced difficulties during the early "liquidity phase" of the financial
crisis in 2007 as a result of not managing liquidity risk in the right man-
ner. Before the crisis, the asset markets were resilient and funding could be
acquired against low costs. A rapid reversal in market conditions showed
the volatility of liquidity, resulting in severe stress scenarios under banks.
According to Ferrari and Ruozi (2009), the insufficient liquidity of banks’
is rather the result of the financial crisis than the cause of it. Instead, these
authors state the crisis comes forth from the lack of proper principles of a
healthy and prudent management together with pursuing too much short-
term profits.
To promote both the short- and long-term resilience of banks’ liquidity
risk profiles and in order to manage and monitor liquidity risk, the BCBS
introduced two liquidity measures (BCBS (2013a), BCBS (2014a)): the liq-
uidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable funding ratio (NSFR). The
D.2. Liquidity 69
LCR is developed to ensure that banks have an adequate stock of unen-

cumbered high-quality liquid assets (HQLA). Here, the adequate amount
of HQLA is quantified as the difference in cash-flows for a 30 day liquid-
ity stress scenario. The NSFR requires banks to maintain a stable funding
profile in relation to their balance sheet activities. By maintaining a stable
funding profile, the likelihood that disruptions to a bank’s regular sources
of funding will erode its liquidity position in a way that could increase the
risk of its failure will be reduced.
D.2.1 Liquidity Coverage Ratio

The liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) promotes short-term resilience by pre-
scribing the sufficient level of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA). The amount
of HQLA is quantified by a 30-day liquidity stress period. HQLA are char-
acterized by their low risk, ease and certainty of valuation, absence of
wrong-way risk and are traded on developed and recognized exchanges,
and so can easily be liquidated (BCBS, 2013a). The BCBS assigned HQLA-
factors to the asset classes based on this marketability.
Stock of HQLA
LCR = ≥ 100%
Total net cash outflows over the next 30 calender days
(D.3)
D.2.2 Net Stable Funding Ratio

The net stable funding ratio (NSFR) requires banks to maintain a stable
funding profile proportional to its balance sheet activities in order to re-
duce the likelihood that disruptions to a bank’s regular sources of funding
will erode its liquidity position in a way that could increase the risk of its
failure and potentially lead to broader systemic stress.
Available amount of stable funding

NSFR = ≥ 100% (D.4)
Required amount of stable funding
71
Appendix E
Balance Sheet Definition
E.1 Asset Definitions

Cash and Balances with Central Banks
Cash and balances with Central banks are assumed to reprice overnight
and are mainly held as a liquidity buffer.
Loans and Advances to banks

Loans and advances to banks with subclass maturity and are distributed
focused on short term repricing.
Government Bonds
Bonds issues by sovereigns. Subclass: Credit rating and Maturity.
Retail Mortgages
This asset class includes loans secured by residential property and can be
divided in subclasses based on loan-to-value and maturity.
Other Assets
This asset class encompasses other non-interest bearing assets and is there-
for excluded from interest rate risk calculations.
Interest Rate Swaps

Financial agreement between two parties to exchange a series of interest
payments without exchanging the underlying debt. Subclass: maturity.
E.2 Liability and Equity Definitions

Due to Banks
Deposits from banks. Subclass: maturity.
Demand Deposits
Funds held in an account from which deposited funds can be withdrawn
at any time without any advance notice to the depository institution. Sub-
class: maturity.
72 Appendix E. Balance Sheet Definition
Savings Deposits
Interest-bearing deposits that provides a modest interest rate. Sub-class:
maturity.
Term Deposits
Deposits that has a fixed term. Subclass: maturity.
Secured Funding
Secured funds, on the shorter term (<1Y) commercial paper, on the longer
term bonds.
Other Liabilities
This asset class encompasses other non-interest bearing liabilities and is
therefor excluded from interest rate risk calculations.
Equity
Banks’ shareholders’ equity. This class is held stable over the simulation
and is excluded from interest rate calculations by regulation.
E.3 Balance sheet input

E.3. Balance sheet input
TABLE E.1: Balance sheet distribution and data sources.
Distribution Current return New return Source

Assets
Cash and equivalents O/N ECB deposit rate ECB deposit rate Bloomberg
Dolphyn (2016),
According to According to
Mortgages Current market rates Goldfish (2016),
mortgage portfolio mortgage portfolio
hypotheekrente.nl
Government bond (AA-) Uniform <10Y 5Y average Current yields Bloomberg
Government bond (A- to A+) Uniform <10Y 4Y average Current yields Bloomberg
Loans and advances to banks Uniform <1Y 1Y average Swap rate + CDS spread Bloomberg
Liabilites
Due to banks Uniform <1Y 1Y average Swap rate + CDS spread Bloomberg
Demand deposits TIA 0% 0% -
Savings deposits TIA Average market rates Average market rates Spaarrente.nl
Uniform, in line with
Term deposits Average market rates Average market rates Spaarrente.nl
Annual Reports
Secured funding Uniform <7Y 5Y average CB yield ING covered bond yield Bloomberg
73
74
TABLE E.2: Asset starting exposure and risk factors.
Asset Start RW <1Y RW >1Y HQLA CI-Factor RSF <6M RSF 6M-1Y RSF ≥1Y
Cash and equivalents 1.0% 0% 0% 100% 0 0%
NHG 25,8% 5% 5% 0% 0,7% 50% 50% 65%
Loan-to-value <60% 22,8% 30% 30% 0% 0,7% 50% 50% 65%
Loan-to-value <80% 18,0% 35% 35% 0% 0,7% 50% 50% 65%
Loan-to-value <102% 17,3% 55% 55% 0% 0,7% 50% 50% 65%
Government bonds (AA-) 1,0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 5% 5% 5%
Government bonds (A- to A+) 1,4% 20% 20% 85% 0% 15% 15% 15%
According to
Loans and advances to banks 7,7% 20% 50% 0% 0 50% 50%
maturity
Other assets 4,9% 60% 60% 35% 0% 100%
Appendix E. Balance Sheet Definition

TABLE E.3: Liability starting exposure and risk factors.
Starting Weights Cash Outflow Factor ASF Factor <6M ASF Factor 6M-1Y ASF Factor ≥1Y
Due to banks 0,7% 100% 0 50% 50%
Demand deposits 12.0% 5%, 10% 90% 90% 100%
Savings deposits 16,2% 5%, 10% 95% 95% 100%
Term deposits 15,9% 100% 95% 95% 100%
Secured funding 45,6% 100% 0 50% 100%
Other liabilities 5,2% 0% 50%
Equity 4,5% 0% 100% 100% 100%
E.3. Balance sheet input 75
F IGURE E.1: Starting distribution of stylized balance sheet
F IGURE E.2: Interest income and expense of current portfolio

76 Appendix E. Balance Sheet Definition
F IGURE E.3: Interest income and expense of new business
F IGURE E.4: Proposed changes in balance sheet allocation

77
Appendix F
Interest Rate Disclosures
The (BCBS, 2016) introduced a more standardized method to systemati-

cally quantify the interest rate exposure of banks in order to promote trans-
parency and comparison across banks. The price that has to be paid for
standardization is the possibility of misrepresenting the reality. Because
of this, banks still have certain freedoms, such as determining the repric-
ing distribution of NMDs. In order to compare the outcomes of the dis-
closed values across banks, banks need to disclose high-level assumptions
on model choices.
The new guidelines on interest rate risk in the banking book of the BCBS
include new public disclosure requirements. Banks are required to disclose
the EVE impact under six prescribed interest rate scenarios. Furthermore,
information on the maximum and average duration of deposits and as-
sumptions that have been made regarding repricing of NMDs should also
be disclosed to both the regulator and the public. In general, banks are
afraid investors have too little knowledge of this difficult topic to fully un-
derstand the disclosures. Furthermore, banks fear that the disclosures will
contain sensitive information (Contiguglia (2016), BBA (2015)). As a result,
banks expect that too much attention will be focused on the disclosed EVE
outcomes, ignoring the bank’s interest rate risk management.
Besides, disclosure of quantitative parameters, such as current NMD repric-
ing assumptions, can be used by competitors to calibrate their models
(BBA, 2015). Banks usually base the interest on savings accounts by bench-
marking their rates with the expected rates of their competitors. If informa-
tion about repricing assumptions is publicly available, it gives competitors
a better idea of the prices a bank will offer and anticipate on this.
The disclosing requirements could also give competitors insight into indi-
vidual banks’ pricing and hedging strategy. Banks claim that disclosing
all fixed prescribed scenarios would effectively be the same as disclosing
the duration of any bank’s portfolio. This could lead to market partici-
pants frontrunning a bank’s hedging needs based on its portfolio charac-
teristics (Wilkes, 2016). Another argument against disclosing the interest
rate shocks is that investors will misinterpret the disclosed EVE values,
and will see the disclosed EVE values as a going concern measure. There-
fore, banks will appear to be at greater risk due to the absence of mitigation
strategies, which will cause unnecessary panic in the market (BBA, 2015).
Finally, the EVE is only standardized to some extent, which can cause more
confusion under investors. For instance, a bank has the choice to include
78 Appendix F. Interest Rate Disclosures
or exclude commercial margins. In case the bank chooses to include them,

commercial margins should be included in the discount rate, which can
result into different outcomes. Also the treatment of NMDs is not entirely
standardized. There are caps on the amount of core deposits and average
duration, but distributions and durations can still differ across banks.
79
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U NIVERSITY OF T WENTE

The impact of interest rate

A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the degree of Master of Science

Financial Engineering and Management

May 25, 2017

Weesp, May 25, 2017

3.4 Simulation Input . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

5 Conclusion, Discussion and Further Research 53

A Interest Rate Scenarios 57

B Distribution of non-maturity deposits 59

C Interest rate swaps 63

E Balance Sheet Definition 71

F Interest Rate Disclosures 77

2.1 Components of interest rates (BCBS, 2016). . . . . . . . . . . 9

4.1 Impact of including non-parallel shocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

B.1 Subclasses of non-maturity deposits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

E.1 Starting distribution of stylized balance sheet . . . . . . . . . 75

2.1 Summary interest rate risk measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

3.1 The stylized balance sheet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

4.1 Starting balance sheet exposures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

A.1 Interest rate shock-scenarios and multipliers. . . . . . . . . . 57

B.1 Stability caps and pass-through floors for NMDs. . . . . . . . 60

C.1 Par rates interest rate swap (source: Bloomberg). . . . . . . . . 63

E.1 Balance sheet distribution and data sources. . . . . . . . . . . 73

ALM Assets Liability Management

1.1 Problem Context

(Memmel, 2011). Decreasing earnings as a result of low interest rates cre-

1.2 Research Objective

1.3 Research design

In order to answer this main research question, we have formulated

1.4 Thesis Outline

total capital ratio. Subsequently, we make suggestions to improve the allo-

In Section 2.1, we summarize on the concept and definition of interest rate

2.1 Definition and Origins

Several variables, for instance probability of default, exposure at de-

2.1.3 Components Of Interest Rate Risk

1. Gap risk, which arises from a mismatch in term structure of interest

2.1.4 Composition Of Interest Rates

2. Investment instruments with longer maturities and higher volatilities

3. Even risk-free instruments may have a premium representing the

2. A credit margin, also called commercial margin, which is an add-on

As illustrated in Figure 2.1, IRRBB regulation comprises the possible

F IGURE 2.1: Components of interest rates (BCBS, 2016).

2.2 Interest Rate Risk and Bank Stability

2.3 IRRBB Regulation

2.3.1 Bank For International Settlements

2.3.2 The Basel Regulation

2.3.3 New Developments In IRRBB Regulation

2.4 Interest Rate Risk Measures

perspective, it is more clear: banks are the cornerstones of the economy,

2.4.1 Gap Analysis

2.4.2 Duration of Equity

not include new business or the possibility of applying mitigation strate-

2.4.3 Economic Value Perspective

2.4.4 Earnings Perspective

margin and therefore implicitly also of its profitability on a short-term time

2.4.5 Regulatory Scope

TABLE 2.1: Summary interest rate risk measures.

Component Gap analysis PV01/Duration ∆EVE EaR / ∆NII