American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences

Original Research Paper

Field Data Based Method for Predicting Long-Term

Settlements
1
Jianping Jiang, 2Qingsheng Chen and 3Sanjay Nimbalkar
1
College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, 201306, China
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, 119077, Singapore
3
Centre for Geomechanics and Railway Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Information Sciences,
University of Wollongong, Wollongong City, NSW 2522, Australia

Article history Abstract: The estimation of the long-term foundation settlement in soft
Received: 10-11-2015 soil is very complex, which is attributed to a number of uncertainties
Revised: 08-01-2016
associated with various factors, such as: (i) The compressibility
Accepted: 25-01-2016
parameters obtained in the laboratory from samples of relatively small
Corresponding Author: size that are more homogeneous compared to heterogeneous field
Qingsheng Chen sediments in which various soil types may be interlayered at random and
Department of Civil and may occur without exhibiting any real stratification; (ii) limitations and
Environmental Engineering, unrealistic assumptions prevailing in the conventional consolidation
National University of Singapore, analysis. These have often resulted in the large discrepancy between
119077, Singapore
Email: chqsh2006@163.com actual in-situ settlements and the predictions from the conventional
consolidation models (e.g., Terzaghi’s model). In this study, a field data
based method inspired from an observational approach is proposed and
validated against a number of high quality long-term field settlement
data. Moreover, the corresponding geological soil properties obtained
from field and laboratory tests have been presented, with the aim of
providing useful practical references for other projects with similar
geological profile. Furthermore, the proposed model is compared with
existing prediction models. The results show that the newly proposed
model can provide more reliable and accurate prediction of foundation
settlements compared with other methods established in practice.

Keywords: Field Data Based Model, Long-Term Settlement Prediction,

Conventional Consolidation Analysis, Complex Soil Formation

Introduction permeability and coefficient of consolidation changes

with settlement (Huat, 1996). Although many
The surface of the Aerodrome and the groundsills improvements have been proposed by various authors
suffer from large settlements that occur over an taking into account some of these aspects (Brand and
extended period of time, when located on soft soils. Brenner, 1981), the discrepancy between predicted
As a result, predicting the long-term settlement on values and actual in-situ settlements is still often
such soft soil has become a key element of safe design evident, especially for heterogeneous soil deposits.
and long-term management of these engineering This discrepancy is probably attributed to the fact that
structures (Guo et al., 2009). The ultimate primary the compressibility parameters are usually obtained
consolidation settlement is obtained using most from conventional laboratory testing using relatively
conventional Terzaghi’s conventional linear one- small sized and homogenous soil samples those are not
dimensional model, in which, the differential equation representative of heterogeneous field sediments
is solved on the assumption that the coefficient of containing various soil types interlayered at random
consolidation remains constant. But in reality, this (Al-Shamrani, 2005). Moreover, consolidation
equation is non-linear because compressibility, settlement is a three-dimensional problem, especially

© 2016 Jianping Jiang, Qingsheng Chen and Sanjay Nimbalkar. This open access article is distributed under a Creative
Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 3.0 license.
Jianping Jiang et al. / American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences 2016, 9 (3): 466.476
DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2016.466.476

for stratified soil deposits. The limitations of accurately estimate foundation settlement, given the
conventional one-dimensional consolidation analysis availability of sufficient data.
have been reported elsewhere (Duncan, 1993). In view In this study, an attempt is made to improve the
of this, determination of more practical approach based capability of predicting the settlement, by proposed
on field measurements is both timely and imperative. Gompertz-Logistic mathematical model combining
Field measurement data is a direct representation the advantages of Gompertz Model and Logistic
of the soil formation and in-situ stress conditions and Model. This new model is then validated against a
provides much useful quantitative assessment of the number of high quality long-term field settlement data
foundation settlement. Many uncertainties (e.g., the collected from the observation points for three
variability of soil, magnitude and distribution of aerodrome groundsill sites (Fig. 1). In addition, the
stresses) can be overcome by extrapolating f om geological soil profile obtained from borehole data as
measured settlement data (Aboshi and Inouce, 1986). well as the geotechnical characteristics of soils
In past decades, a few field-based observational located at aerodrome groundsill site obtained from
methods have been developed in order to predict laboratory tests and field tests also described, with the
future settlement behavior, such as the Hyperbolic aim of providing useful practical references for the
(Tan, 1971; 1993; 1994; Chin, 1975; Ameranima, settlement prediction for other projects with similar
2004; Al-Shamrani, 2005), Logistic (Yen and geological profile. Furthermore, the proposed model is
Scanlon, 1975; Hwang and Moh, 2006; Xu and Li, compared with existing prediction models (i.e.,
2007), Gompertz (Yu and Liu, 2005; Wu and Hu, Logarithmic method; Power method; Hyperbolic
2006) and Asaoka (1978) methods. These methods method; Compertz method and Logistic method). The
have shown promising results for predicting behavior results show that the newly proposed model can be
of complex soil formations once the sufficient field more reliable and accurate in the prediction of
data is recorded. In view of this, new methods of foundation settlement compared with the existing
analysis have become increasingly important to prediction methods.

Fig. 1. Locations of the studied Airport in China

467
Jianping Jiang et al. / American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences 2016, 9 (3): 466.476
DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2016.466.476

Mathematical Models Hyperbolic Model

Logarithmic Model In normal cases, foundation settlement shows rapid
increase initially, followed by decreased rate of increase
Yen and Scanlon (1975) determined the settlement as time passes ultimately reaching the limit eventually
rate for three landfills of 30 m in height, with the data (Hwang and Moh, 2006). Based on the experimental
recorded over a period of 9 years. The settlement rate observations, Tan (1971) have proposed the following
was determined and approximated using the following hyperbolic relationship to capture time dependent
logarithmic relationship: phenomenon of secondary compression:

ds t
= u′ − v′ log t (1) s= (7)
dt α + βt

where, ds/dt is rate of settlement, u' and v' are two where, s is total settlement at any time, t, after the excess
empirical constants. They reported that the settlement pore water pressure has dissipated; α and β are two
rate in general showed increase with the depth of the empirical constants to be established by curve fitting.
fill. When t becomes large, logarithmic model Rearranging terms, Equation 1 can be rewritten as:
indicates that ds/dt will be negative. It implies that a
landfill will undergo expansion, which is physically t
impossible. Thus, in practice, t should be limited to = α + βt (8)
s
when ds/dt = 0. The logarithmic function does not
allow a maximum time to be defined such that the
final settlement will be determined when the Equation 8 is the equation of a straight line (i.e., the
settlement rate approaches zero. plot of t/s against t), where α and β are the intercept and
the slope of the line, respectively. These two constants
Power Model can easily be obtained by regression analysis once
The settlement rate can be related with time using sufficient data is available. Taking the limits of Equation
power function (Edil et al., 1990): 8 as t approaches infinity, the total settlement is given
by1/β, which is the reciprocal of the slope of the straight
line. The Hyperbolic method has become one of the most
ds p′
= (2) convenient and commonly used methods for predicting
dt t q ′ foundation settlements based on available field data
(Tan, 1971; 1993; 1994; Ling et al., 1998; Ameranima,
where, p' and q' are two empirical constants. In this 2004; Al-Shamrani, 2005).
model, p' can also be defined as the settlement rate at In this study, in order to extend the capability of
unit time. Equation 1 and 2 can be integrated with prediction of Hyperbolic Model, Equation 7 is presented
respect to time to obtain settlement as (Ling et al., 1998): in following form:

S = u′ − v′ ( log t − 1)  t (3) α ( t − t0 )

s = s0 + (9)
1 + β ( t − t0 )
p ′ 1− q ′
S= t (4)
1 − q′
where, s0 is the settlement at the time, t0. Once the excess
pore water pressure is dissipated, the total settlement can
As the settlement rate approaches zero (i.e., ds/dt = be determined as:
0), final settlements can be determined using Equation
3. The settlement can also be expressed using log t
s = s0 + α / β (10)
and power functions as (Ling et al., 1998):

S = u + v log t (5) Logistic Model

The general form of Logistic Model in the time series
S = pt q
(6) is expressed as:

where, u, v, p and q are empirical constants. From m

s= (11)
Equation 4 and 6, it appears that q = 1-q' and p = p'/q. 1 + ne − kt

468
Jianping Jiang et al. / American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences 2016, 9 (3): 466.476
DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2016.466.476

where, s is the upper bound of m, n describes the location advantage of Gompertz Model and Logistic Model.
of the curve and k controls the shape of the curve. To The general form of the newly proposed model in time
estimate the parameters for n and k, the equation of series is presented as:
logistic model is transformed into linear natural
logarithmic form. The linear model is expressed as: p1 ( − p6t )
s= + p4 e − p5 e (14)
(− p t)
1 + p 2e 3

ln ( m / ( s − m ) ) = − ln ( n ) + kt (12)
where, s is the predicted value of settlement at any time,
where, parameters n and k are then estimated using a t. p1, p2, p3, p4, p5, p6 are the constants, the total
simple linear regression. It is observed that the settlement can be the value of the sum of p1 and p4. Due
foundation settlement during loading can usually be to the complexity of topography and the geotechnical
divided into the occurrence phase, the development conditions, many uncertainties for obtaining the soil
phase, the mature phase and the ultimate phase and the parameters exists and it is a good option to apply the
settlement-time curve bears ’S’ shape. The Logistic observational methods based on the field settlement
Model can fit the whole process of foundation settlement measurement data to predict future settlement in the site
well by choosing reasonable parameters (Mei et al., of the airport, comparing with conventional analysis of
2005; Li et al., 2011). consolidation settlement.
Gompertz Model
Case Study
The Gompertz model was originally derived by
Gompertz (1985) to describe the law of human mortality. The application of the proposed combined
More recently, it has also been used to predict biological Gompertz-Logistic model is illustrated employing a
and economic growth (Winsor, 1932; Batschelet, 1977). number of high quality long-term field settlement data.
This shows that Gompertz Model can be used as a The measurements reported for three aerodrome
reliable and effective prediction tool. groundsill sites are used because of availability of
The model exhibits ‘S’ type distribution curve, relatively long-term settlement data: Shenzhen Bao’an
which is similar to the foundation settlement versus International Airport, Guangdong, China (Wang et al.,
time curve. Also, the curve does not pass through the 2006); Three Gorges Airport, Hubei, China (Ren et al.,
origin and it can appropriately represent the 1998); Jiuzhai Huanglong Airport, Sichuan, China
immediate settlement when the soil is under the action (Liu et al., 2005). The geological profile obtained from
of load. Based on these important features, this model borehole data and the geotechnical characteristics of
soils obtained from laboratory as well as field
has been widely used in the past by many researchers
measurements at each aerodrome groundsill site are
for the prediction of foundation settlement (Yu and
also presented, with the aim of providing useful
Liu, 2005; Zeng and Kong, 2006).
practical reference for other projects with similar
The general form of Gompertz Model in the time
geological profile. Based on the comprehensive
series is expressed as:
settlement data, the capability of the proposed model
− b( t − c )
over other prediction models (i.e., Logarithmic method,
s = ae− e (13) Power method, Hyperbolic method; Compertz method
and Logistic method) is assessed.
where, s is the predicted value of settlement at any time,
t. a, b and c are constants, the parameter ‘a’ can also Case I: Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport
represent total settlement. Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport is one of the
three largest airport hubs serving southern China. The
Combined Gompertz-Logistic Model
airport comprises of 3,400 m long and 45 m wide
As discussed in the previous section, each prediction runway and a terminal building with 15,200 sq m area
model has its own unique features. Bates and Granger encompassing 24 jet ways. The airport is located in the
(1969) proposed a method entitled ‘Combined eastern side of the estuary of Pearl River.
forecasting’ in order to derive advantage of the available The original topography of the airport site was
data as much as possible. Thus, accuracy of prediction coastal plain and beach. According to the site
can be improved by combining different forecasting investigation data (Wang et al., 2006), the geological
methods discussed earlier thus enabling more systematic profile and the geotechnical parameters of soils at the
and comprehensive assessment. airport site obtained from laboratory as well as field tests
In this study, a Combined Gompertz-Logistic are presented Fig. 2a and Table 1, respectively. The soil
Mathematical Model is proposed by taking the profile revealed the presence of soft soil with high water

469
Jianping Jiang et al. / American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences 2016, 9 (3): 466.476
DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2016.466.476

content, high compressibility and low shear strength triangular pattern. The surcharge pressure of 140 kPa
which was mainly distributed within 6.4 m thick upper was gradually applied and the 12 m long vertical drains
layer. In this project, the ground improvement was were used accordingly. After ground improvement, the
undertaken using surcharge as well as application of soil properties of muddy silt were significantly improved
vertical sand drains spaced at 1 m and arranged in (Table 1).

Table 1. Soil parameters before and after ground improvement at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport
Muddy silt after
Parameters Muddy silt ground improvement Clayey loam Silty clay
Water content, w(%) 81.50 58.30 19.70 23.20
Unit weight, γ (kN/m3) 15.30 16.50 20.20 19.00
Void ratio, e 2.21 1.48 0.59 0.78
Liquid index, IL (%) 2.01 0.98 <0.00 <0.00
Compression index, a1-2 (MPa−1) 2.03 0.94 0.25 0.35
Cohesion, c (kPa) 3.50 14.70 28.00 19.00
Friction angle, ϕ (kPa) 0.00 4.30 27.20 32.30

(a) (b)

(c)

Fig. 2. Soil profile of the ground for studied cases (a) Soil profile after ground improvement: Case I (b) Soil profile after ground
improvement: Case II (c) Soil profile: Case III

470
Jianping Jiang et al. / American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences 2016, 9 (3): 466.476
DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2016.466.476

Fig. 3. Settlement estimations for observed point by the proposed model and the existing models for Shenzhen Bao’an
International Airport

Figure 3 shows the comparison of settlements km away from the city center and 55 km from the
estimated by the proposed model and the existing Three Gorges Dam site. The airport, with runway of
models for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport. 2,600 m in length and 45 m in width and a terminal
Table 1 summarizes the best-fit parameters for each building of 15,000 sq m, is capable of handling 1.4
model, i.e., Logarithmic, Power, Hyperbolic, Logistic, million passengers annually. Soil parameters before
Gompertz and proposed Gompertz-Logistic functions. and after ground improvement are listed in Table 2.
Note that R is the coefficient of correlation. As shown The region of the airport belongs to warm and humid
in Fig. 3, all the models show good agreement with subtropical climate zone, where the topography is
measured data for the short-term settlement before uneven, the ditch and terraces are widely distributed.
400 days. However, the discrepancy between Based on the geotechnical investigation data, the soil
predicted values by the existing methods (i.e., deposits in the area mainly consist of Quaternary clay
Logarithmic Method, Power Method, Gompertz and pebble. The groundwater level is low and no active
Method, Hyperbolic Method and Logistic Method) fault was found. The ground improvement was carried
and field data is much evident after 400 days.
out by compaction method using the vibratory roller with
Logarithmic method and Power method show poor
the weights varying from 400 to 600 kN, to meet design
predictions with coefficient of regression around 0.70,
criteria stipulated for the airport runway project viz. (i)
which is quite unacceptable. The predicted settlement
by the Gompertz Model is in close agreement with the the ultimate settlement of the ground in the airport
settlement predicted by Logistic method. The Logistic should be less than 8 cm, (ii) the values of differential
method predicts values somewhat smaller than the settlement were not allowed to be larger than 1.5% and
measured data, while the use of the Hyperbolic Model (iii) the compression rebound modulus should be larger
gives larger ultimate settlement than the measured than 25 MPa. Due to different requirements for the
data while the predicted settlement shows continuous degree of compaction, the ground in the airport was
increase with the time. This implies the inability of divided into three observational areas for settlement
above both models in the accurate prediction of both measurements (i.e., Observational Area I, II and III,
short-term and long-term settlement of the airport respectively). In this study, only the measured
foundation. On the contrary, the predicted settlement settlements for one observed point on the axis of the
by the proposed model is in good agreement with the runway of the airport in Observational Area I was
measured data. Currently, it is the only model that can analysed (i.e., observed point of No.P94/H53+15 in the
produce estimation for both long-term settlement and literature (Ren et al., 1998). For the ground at
short-term settlement consistently and reliably. Observational Area I, the fill in the upper layer, which
mainly consisted of clay with high liquid limit, was
Case II: Three Gorges Airport compacted to 98% relative compaction using the standard
The Three Gorges Airport, which serves the proctor test. The soil profile and soil parameters at the
world's largest dam project with regular air flights, is observed point before and after ground improvement are
located in Yichang City, Hubei Province, China, 26 shown in Fig. 2b and Table 3, respectively.

471
Jianping Jiang et al. / American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences 2016, 9 (3): 466.476
DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2016.466.476

Table 2. Soil parameters before and after ground improvement at three Georges airport
Fill soil before Clay Backfill soil
Parameters compaction Clay with gravel after compaction
Water content, w(%) 23.09 25.45 27.75 17.000
Unit weight, γ (kN/m3) 19.48 19.30 18.67 20.360
Void ratio, e 0.73 0.78 0.83 0.525
Saturation degree, S (%) 87.37 91.80 91.70 83.300
Specific gravity, G 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.750
Liquidity limit, wL (%) 37.56 37.19 36.94 39.200
Plasticity limit, wp (%) 22.37 24.35 26.80 25.150
Deformation modulus, E0 (MPa) 22.00 20.60 22.64 28.200

Table 3. Physical and mechanical parameters for weak soil at Jiuzhai Huanglong Airport
Parameters Silt Silty clay Silty clay Pebbly gravel Silty clay
Water content, w(%) 21.90 24.50 25.20 22.50 22.80
Unit weight, γ (kN/m3) 18.50 19.00 19.50 19.00 19.50
Void ratio, e 0.62 0.62 0.70 0.58 0.64
Liquidity limit, wL (%) 0.51 0.58 0.48 0.65 0.45
Deformation modulus, E0 (MPa) 8.00 5.20 9.00 5.20 9.00

Figure 4 shows the predictions using the proposed in the airport area are very complex, which belongs to
model and the existing models for estimation of high altitude zone (3430 m), high earthquake intensity
settlement in Observational Area I. Table 4 zone (common earthquake intensity of 8.1 degrees) and
summarizes the best-fit parameters for each model, high fill zone (the vertical height of Yuan Shanzi ditch
i.e., Logarithmic, Power, Hyperbolic, Logistic, in the site of the airport was over 102 m and the height
Gompertz and proposed Gompertz-Logistic functions. of fill from the bottom of the ditch to the pavement
As shown in Fig. 4, an acceptable agreement between the surface was up to 140 m after completion of the fill in
measured data and the predictions of various methods the ditch with the earthwork over 58 million m3).
discussed in this study can be achieved for the initial According to the geological survey and
stage of settlement, i.e., before 40 days. The application geotechnical investigation data, the soft soil of
of Power method results into underprediction of Yuanshanzi group mainly consisted of yellow-gray
settlements before 80 days while resulting into large silt, which belongs to the eolian loess with large pore
deviations for the following period of measurements. structure, large compressibility and low mechanical
The Hyperbola method over predicts settlements by a strength due to long-term immersion in the
substantial amount for the period above 100 days. Most underground water. The soft soil of Heshi group,
of existing methods fail to provide satisfactory mainly consisted of brown-yellow, gray and dark gray
predictions of long-term settlement of over 100 days, silty clay with gravels and silty clay. Similarly, due to
especially the predictions by Logarithmic, Power and this group of soil layer lies to low-lying terrain, the soil
Hyperbola functions (Fig. 4). Although predictions by was immerged in underground water and exhibited
Gompertz Model and Logistic Model provide weak soil properties with low strength and high
satisfactory match with the field data for a short period compressibility. The soil profile and soil parameters are
of measurements, the proposed method gives a good shown in Fig. 2c and Table 3, respectively.
agreement between the predictions and the measured Figure 5a and b show the predictions of
data during the entire period. The non-linear variation of settlements using the proposed model and the existing
settlement against time duration is adequately captured models at the observed point C18 and C25,
by the proposed model. respectively, compared with the measured data. Table
4 summarizes the best-fit parameters for each model,
Case III: Jiuzhai Huanglong Airport
i.e., Logarithmic, Power, Hyperbolic, Logistic,
Jiuzhaigou Huanglong Airport, with an altitude of Gompertz and proposed Gompertz-Logistic functions.
3,400 meters, is the third highest airport in China, An excellent agreement between the predictions of the
which has a 3200 m long and 60 m wide runway. The proposed model and the field data is evident from Fig.
airport is located on the boundary between eastern 5a and b. Most of other established methods yield
Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin, i.e., northern quite scattered results. While Hyperbolic, Logistic,
part of Eshan mountain on the Northwest Plateau in Gompertz methods show good agreement for some
Sichuan. The topography and geotechnical conditions range of data, the proposed model provides

472
Jianping Jiang et al. / American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences 2016, 9 (3): 466.476
DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2016.466.476

predictions which compare well over the entire range observation point C25 (Fig. 5b). On the contrary, the
of data measured during the period of this study. Most proposed model is able to capture the complex non-
of other existing methods are found approximate and linear trend in the long-term settlement of aerodrome
give a wide scatter of predicted values after 90 days at groundsill, albeit with the need to employ more
observation point C18 (Fig. 5a) and after 110 days at number of parameters.

Table 4. Best-Fit Parameters for mathematical models for settlement predictions Mathematical Model Parameters Best-fit values
Case I Case II Case III (C18) Case III (C25)
Logarithmic Model u 493.51000 -5.536000 -29.99300 -43.98500
v 124.50000 2.355000 16.99300 22.56800
R 0.70120 0.970200 0.93730 0.90550
Power Model p 649.19000 0.144500 0.30440 0.26570
q 0.10800 0.798500 1.09570 1.18160
R 0.67830 0.897900 0.87540 0.86970
Hyperbolic Model α 0.13400 0.105000 0.87507 0.94400
β 0.00338 0.013520 0.00885 0.00550
s0 986.00000 1.200000 1.03755 1.03755
t0 125.00000 16.000000 3.40534 3.40534
R 0.98680 0.905400 0.91260 0.88570
Logistic Model m 1243.77400 5.404500 53.16660 73.95900
n 3.97000 8.138000 14.32100 11.85000
k 0.02200 0.057110 0.05235 0.04345
R 0.99620 0.976300 0.97680 0.97220
Gompertz Model a 1244.47500 5.600000 55.40000 78.06700
b 0.02060 0.039200 0.03338 0.02790
c 53.39600 27.540000 39.28000 44.70000
R 0.99670 0.954800 0.98020 0.94590
Combined Gompertz-Logistic p1 1230.46600 0.644084 40.93660 15.33378
Model p2 6.06000 3.7*1070 28.37000 1.3*109
p3 0.02555 0.251620 0.08430 0.20217
p4 20.58000 4.760000 13.67000 58.70000
p5 450.20000 3.060000 229.70000 4.78000
p6 0.01796 0.047900 0.05969 0.04521
R 0.99870 0.998820 0.99910 0.99870

Fig. 4. Soil profile after ground improvement and settlement estimations for observed point by the proposed model and the
existing models

473
Jianping Jiang et al. / American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences 2016, 9 (3): 466.476
DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2016.466.476

(a)

(b)

Fig. 5. Settlement Estimations for Jiuzhai Huanglong Airport by the proposed Model and the Existing Models at (a) observation
point C18 and (b) observation point C25

established in practice. The comparison is carried out

Conclusion
between the model predicted and field measured
In this study, the feasibility of predicting the values. This paper shows that the newly proposed
settlement of soft ground by a newly proposed field model is able to predict the settlement of the complex
based method is presented with sufficient validation. soft ground with an acceptable degree of accuracy and
Three field based investigations related to the has much better performance than the existing
settlement of soft ground, along with the observational methods. Once the sufficient field data
corresponding geological soil properties obtained is available, the proposed model is featured as an
from field and laboratory tests were presented and accurate and fast tool without need to use any tables
used for model development and verification. A new or charts, thereby overcoming the shortcomings of the
model based on an observational approach is proposed conventional consolidation analysis due to various
in the view of limitations of the existing model uncertainties for obtaining the necessary soil

474
Jianping Jiang et al. / American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences 2016, 9 (3): 466.476
DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2016.466.476

parameters. The main shortcoming of the proposed Batschelet, E., 1977. Introduction to mathmatics for life
method is the lack of computational theory based on scientists. Acta Biotheoretica, 26: 196-200.
rigorous mathematics to help in its development. Brand, E.W. and R.P. Breers, 1981. Soft Clay
However, despite the foregoing limitations, this study Engineering. 1st Edn., Elsevier Scientific Publishing
highlights that the proposed field based observational Co., Amsterdam, ISBN-10: 0444417842, pp: 779.
approach has a number of significant benefits thus Chin, F.K., 1975. The seepage theory of primary and
making it a simple, yet powerful and practical tool for secondary consolidation. Proceedings of the 4th
settlement prediction of soft ground, especially with Southeast Asian Conference on Soil Engineering,
complex soil formations. (CSE’ 75), Kuala Lumpur, pp: 21-28.
Duncan, J.M., 1993. Limitations of conventional
Acknowledgement analysis of consolidation settlement. J. Geotechn.
Eng., 119: 1333-1359.
This research is funded by the National Natural DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9410(1993)119:9(1333)
Science Foundation of China (No: 41372319), Edil, T.B., V.J. Ranguette and W.W. Wuellner, 1990.
Shanghai Municipal Education Commission Research Settlement of municipal refuse, geotechnics of waste
Innovation Foundation (14YZ101), Shanghai fills-theory and practice: ASTM STP 1070(pp. 225-
Maritime University Innovation Team Foundation 239): American Society for Testing and Materials,
(A113010041004), Shanghai Maritime University Philadelphia, Pa.
Research Foundation (20120074) and Shanghai Gompertz, B., 1825. On the nature of the function
Municipal Education Commission Primary Discipline expressive of the law of human mortality and on a
Doctoral Program Foundation. new mode of determining the value of life
contingencies. Philosophical Trans. R Society
Author’s Contributions London, 123: 513-585. DOI: 10.1098/rstl.1825.0026
All authors equally contributed in this work. Guo, J., J.J. Zheng and Y. Liu, 2009. Application of an
immune algorithm to settlement prediction. J. Zhej.
Univ. Sci. A, 10: 93-100.
Ethics
DOI: 10.1631/jzus.A0820289
This article is original and contains unpublished Huat, B.B.K., 1996. Observational method of predicting
material. The corresponding author confirms that all of settlements. Proceedings of the 12th Southeast
the other authors have read and approved the manuscript Asian Geotechnical Conference, (AGC’ 96), Kuala
and no ethical issues involved. Lumpur, pp: 191-196.
Hwang, R.N. and Z.C. Moh, 2006. Prediction of long-
References term settlements induced by shield tunneling. J.
GeoEng., 1: 63-70.
Aboshi, H. and T. Inoue, 1986. Prediction of
Ling, H.I., D. Leshchinsky, Y. Mohri and T. Kawabata,
consolidation settlement of clay layers especially in
1998. Estimation of municipal solid waste landfill
case of soil stabilisation by vertical drains.
settlement. J. Geotechn. Geoenviron. Eng., 124: 21-28.
Proceedings of the IEM-JSSMFE Symposium on
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(1998)124:1(21)
Geotechnical Problems, (SGP’ 86), Kuala Lumpur,
Liu, H., P.F. Li and Z.Y. Zhang, 2005. Prediction of the
pp: 31-40.
post-construction settlement of the high
Al-Shamrani, M.A., 2005. Applying the hyperbolic
embankment of Jiuzhai-Huanglong Airport. Chinese
method and Cα/Cc concept for settlement prediction
J. Geotechn. Eng., 27: 0-93.
of complex organic-rich soil formations. Eng. Geol.,
Li, Y.Q., H. Zhang and Y.R. Liu, 2011. Regression
77: 17-34. DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.07.004 analysis of observed foundation settlement by
Ameranima, A., 2004. Applicability of the rectangular modified logistic growth model. Adv. Mater. Res.,
hyperbolic method to settlement predictions of 250-253: 2583-2587.
sabkha soils. Geotechn. Geol. Eng., 22: 563-587. DOI: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.250-253.2583
DOI: 10.1023/B:GEGE.0000047046.73649.04 Mei, G.X., J.M. Zai and Z.Z. Yin, 2005. Proof of
Asaoka, A., 1978. Observational procedure of settlement settlement-time curve appearing “S” shape with
prediction. Soils Foundat., 18: 87-101. ramp load and its application based on stress-strain
DOI: 10.3208/sandf1972.18.4_87 relationship. Rock Soil Mechan., 26: 21-24.
Bates, J.N. and C.W.J. Granger, 1969. The combination Ren, D.J., X.J. He and C.H. Yao, 1998. The settlement
of forecasts. J. Operat. Res., 20: 451-468. results analysis of Sanxia Airport No.1 area.
DOI: 10.1057/jors.1969.103 Geotechn. Eng. Technique, 1: 55-59.

475
Jianping Jiang et al. / American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences 2016, 9 (3): 466.476
DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2016.466.476

Tan, S.B., 1971. An empirical method for estimating Wu, Q.X. and H. Hu, 2006. Law analysis of soft soil
secondary and total settlement. Proceedings of the settlement treated by vacuum preloading based on
4th Asian Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics Gompertz growth curve. Chinese J. Rock Mechan.
and Foundation Engineering, (MFE’ 71), Bangkok, Eng., 25: 3600-3606.
pp: 147-151. Xu, H.Z. and X. Li, 2007. Time function of surface
Tan, T.S., 1993. Ultimate settlement by hyperbolic plot subsidence based on logistic growth model. Rock
for clays with vertical drains. J. Geotechn. Eng., Soil Mechan., 26: 151-153.
119: 950-956. Yen, B.C. and B. Scanlon, 1975. Sanitary landfill settlement
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9410(1993)119:5(950) rates. J. Geotechn. Eng. Div., 105: 475-487.
Tan, T.S., 1994. Hyperbolic method for evaluation of
Yu, C. and S.Y. Liu, 2005. A study on prediction of
settlement of ground pretreated by drains and
embankment settlement with the gompertz model.
surcharge. Geotechn. Eng., 25: 75-89.
Rock Soil Mechan., 26: 82-86.
Wang, Z.L., J.Z. Huang and Y.C. Li, 2006. Study on
application of Asaoka’s method to settlement Zeng, W. and X. Kong, 2006. The research on Gompertz
prediction. Rock Soil Mechan., 27: 2025-2029 model prediction on high fill embankment.
Winsor, C., 1932. The Gompertx curve as a growth Highways Automotive Applic., 115: 81-83.
equation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 18: 1-8.

476