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1A. Step 1: POM-QM For Windows

The document contains data on passenger numbers and tourist numbers over past periods. It performs time series analysis on the data including linear regression to determine trends and forecasts for future periods. For passenger numbers, it calculates error measures like bias, mean absolute deviation, mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error for the regression forecast. It performs similar analysis for tourist number data, calculating a regression line and error measures for that forecast.

Uploaded by

IBRA GAMING
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
287 views

1A. Step 1: POM-QM For Windows

The document contains data on passenger numbers and tourist numbers over past periods. It performs time series analysis on the data including linear regression to determine trends and forecasts for future periods. For passenger numbers, it calculates error measures like bias, mean absolute deviation, mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error for the regression forecast. It performs similar analysis for tourist number data, calculating a regression line and error measures for that forecast.

Uploaded by

IBRA GAMING
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 9

1A.

STEP 1
(YUSRIL SAPUTR)

jml penumpang Time(x)


Past period 1 7 -11
Past period 2 8 -9
Past period 3 6 -7
Past period 4 10 -5
Past period 5 14 -3
Past period 6 15 -1
Past period 7 13 1
Past period 8 12 3
Past period 9 14 5
Past period 10 16 7
Past period 11 15 9
Past period 12 17 11

Created by POM-QM for Windows

STEP 2
(YUSRIL SAPUTRA) Summary
Measure Value Future Period Forecast
Error Measures 13 18,05
Bias (Mean Error) 0 15 18,94
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 1,2 17 19,83
MSE (Mean Squared Error) 2,88 19 20,72
Standard Error (denom=n-2=10) 1,86 21 21,61
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) ,11 23 22,5
Regression line 25 23,4
jml penumpang = 12.25 27 24,29
+ ,45 * Time(x) 29 25,18
Statistics 31 26,07
Correlation coefficient ,88 33 26,96

Created by POM-QM for Windows


STEP 3
(YUSRIL SAPUTRA) Solution
jml
Time(x) x^2 x*y Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
penumpang
Past period 1 7 -11 121 -77 7,35 -,35 ,35 ,12 ,05
Past period 2 8 -9 81 -72 8,24 -,24 ,24 ,06 ,03
Past period 3 6 -7 49 -42 9,13 -3,13 3,13 9,79 ,52
Past period 4 10 -5 25 -50 10,02 -,02 ,02 0 0
Past period 5 14 -3 9 -42 10,91 3,09 3,09 9,53 ,22
Past period 6 15 -1 1 -15 11,8 3,2 3,2 10,21 ,21
Past period 7 13 1 1 13 12,7 ,3 ,3 ,09 ,02
Past period 8 12 3 9 36 13,59 -1,59 1,59 2,52 ,13
Past period 9 14 5 25 70 14,48 -,48 ,48 ,23 ,03
Past period 10 16 7 49 112 15,37 ,63 ,63 ,4 ,04
Past period 11 15 9 81 135 16,26 -1,26 1,26 1,59 ,08
Past period 12 17 11 121 187 17,15 -,15 ,15 ,02 0
TOTALS 147 0 572 255 0 14,43 34,57 1,36
AVERAGE 12,25 0 47,67 21,25 0 1,2 2,88 ,11
Next period forecast 18,05 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Intercept 12,25 Std err 1,86
Slope ,45

Created by POM-QM for Windows

1B.
STEP 1
NAIVE METHOD (YUSRIL
SAPUTRA)
JUMLAH TURIS
Past period 1 ,5
Past period 2 1
Past period 3 2
Past period 4 1,5
Past period 5 2,5
Past period 6 2,7
Past period 7 2,4
Past period 8 2,5
Past period 9 2,7
Past period 10 4,4
Past period 11 3
Past period 12 3,5

Created by POM-QM for Windows


STEP 2
(TREND ANALYSIS) YUSRIL SAPAUTRA

JUMLAH TURIS
Past period 1 ,5
Past period 2 1
Past period 3 2
Past period 4 1,5
Past period 5 2,5
Past period 6 2,7
Past period 7 2,4
Past period 8 2,5
Past period 9 2,7
Past period 10 4,4
Past period 11 3
Past period 12 3,5

Created by POM-QM for Windows

STEP 3
(LEAST SQUARES) YUSRIL SAPUTRA

JUMLAH TURIS Time(x)


Past period 1 ,5 -11
Past period 2 1 -9
Past period 3 2 -7
Past period 4 1,5 -5
Past period 5 2,5 -3
Past period 6 2,7 -1
Past period 7 2,4 1
Past period 8 2,5 3
Past period 9 2,7 5
Past period 10 4,4 7
Past period 11 3 9
Past period 12 3,5 11

Created by POM-QM for Window


STEP 4
SOLVE
Measure Value Future Period Forecast
Error Measures 13 4,06
Bias (Mean Error) 0 15 4,32
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) ,42 17 4,58
MSE (Mean Squared Error) ,24 19 4,83
Standard Error (denom=n-2=10) ,54 21 5,09
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) ,23 23 5,35
Regression line 25 5,6
JUMLAH TURIS = 2.391667 27 5,86
+ ,13 * Time(x) 29 6,12
Statistics 31 6,38
Correlation coefficient ,88 33 6,63

Created by POM-QM for Windows

STEP 5
(SOLVE) Details and Error Analysis
JUMLAH
Time(x) x^2 x*y Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
TURIS
Past period 1 ,5 -11 121 -5,5 ,98 -,48 ,48 ,23 ,96
Past period 2 1 -9 81 -9 1,24 -,24 ,24 ,06 ,24
Past period 3 2 -7 49 -14 1,49 ,51 ,51 ,26 ,25
Past period 4 1,5 -5 25 -7,5 1,75 -,25 ,25 ,06 ,17
Past period 5 2,5 -3 9 -7,5 2 ,49 ,49 ,24 ,2
Past period 6 2,7 -1 1 -2,7 2,26 ,44 ,44 ,19 ,16
Past period 7 2,4 1 1 2,4 2,52 -,12 ,12 ,01 ,05
Past period 8 2,5 3 9 7,5 2,78 -,28 ,28 ,08 ,11
Past period 9 2,7 5 25 13,5 3,03 -,33 ,33 ,11 ,12
Past period 10 4,4 7 49 30,8 3,29 1,11 1,11 1,23 ,25
Past period 11 3 9 81 27 3,55 -,55 ,55 ,3 ,18
Past period 12 3,5 11 121 38,5 3,81 -,31 ,31 ,09 ,09
TOTALS 28,7 0 572 73,5 0 5,09 2,86 2,78
AVERAGE 2,39 0 47,67 6,13 0 ,42 ,24 ,23
Next period forecast 4,06 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Intercept 2,39 Std err ,54
Slope ,13

Created by POM-QM for Windows


1C.

STEP 1
(NAIVE METHOD)

JUMLAH
HOTEL
Past period 1 250
Past period 2 270
Past period 3 300
Past period 4 310
Past period 5 325
Past period 6 375
Past period 7 380
Past period 8 385
Past period 9 390
Past period 10 400
Past period 11 410
Past period 12 420

Created by POM-QM for Windows

STEP 2
LEAST SQUARE

JUMLAH
Time(x)
HOTEL
Past period 1 250 -11
Past period 2 270 -9
Past period 3 300 -7
Past period 4 310 -5
Past period 5 325 -3
Past period 6 375 -1
Past period 7 380 1
Past period 8 385 3
Past period 9 390 5
Past period 10 400 7
Past period 11 410 9
Past period 12 420 11

Created by POM-QM for Windows


STEP 3
SOLVE
Measure Value Future Period Forecast
Error Measures 13 451,59
Bias (Mean Error) 0 15 467,03
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 11 17 482,47
MSE (Mean Squared Error) 198,24 19 497,9
Standard Error (denom=n-2=10) 15,42 21 513,34
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) ,03 23 528,78
Regression line 25 544,21
JUMLAH HOTEL = 351.25 27 559,65
+ 7,72 * Time(x) 29 575,09
Statistics 31 590,52
Correlation coefficient ,97 33 605,96

Created by POM-QM for Windows

STEP 4
(SOLVE) Details Error and Analysis
JUMLAH
Time(x) x^2 x*y Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
HOTEL
Past period 1 250 -11 121 -2750 266,35 -16,35 16,35 267,2 ,07
Past period 2 270 -9 81 -2430 281,78 -11,78 11,78 138,84 ,04
Past period 3 300 -7 49 -2100 297,22 2,78 2,78 7,73 0
Past period 4 310 -5 25 -1550 312,66 -2,66 2,66 7,06 0
Past period 5 325 -3 9 -975 328,09 -3,09 3,09 9,58 0
Past period 6 375 -1 1 -375 343,53 31,47 31,47 990,27 ,08
Past period 7 380 1 1 380 358,97 21,03 21,03 442,32 ,06
Past period 8 385 3 9 1155 374,41 10,59 10,59 112,24 ,03
Past period 9 390 5 25 1950 389,84 ,16 ,16 ,02 0
Past period 10 400 7 49 2800 405,28 -5,28 5,28 27,88 ,01
Past period 11 410 9 81 3690 420,72 -10,72 10,72 114,85 ,03
Past period 12 420 11 121 4620 436,15 -16,15 16,15 260,95 ,04
TOTALS 4215 0 572 4415 0 132,06 2378,93 ,38
AVERAGE 351,25 0 47,67 367,92 0 11 198,24 ,03
Next period forecast 451,59 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Intercept 351,25 Std err 15,42
Slope 7,72

Created by POM-QM for Windows


1D. STEP 1
REGRESI

JML
JUMLAH TURIS JML HOTEL
PENUMPANG
Observation 1 7 ,5 250
Observation 2 8 1 270
Observation 3 6 2 300
Observation 4 10 1,5 310
Observation 5 14 2,5 325
Observation 6 15 2,7 375
Observation 7 13 2,4 380
Observation 8 12 2,5 385
Observation 9 14 2,7 390
Observation 10 16 4,4 400
Observation 11 15 3 410
Observation 12 17 3,5 420

Created by POM-QM for Windows

STEP 2
SOLVE
Measure Value
Error Measures
Bias (Mean Error) 0
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 1,08
MSE (Mean Squared Error) 2,39
Standard Error (denom=n-2-1=9) 1,78
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) ,11
Regression line
JUMLAH TURIS = -4,1
+ 1,06 * JML PENUMPANG
+ ,04 * JML HOTEL
Statistics
Correlation coefficient ,9
Coefficient of determination (r^2) ,81

Created by POM-QM for Wind


STEP 3
(SOLVE) Detail and Error Analysis
JUMLAH JML JML
Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
TURIS PENUMPANG HOTEL
Observation 1 7 ,5 250 6,26 ,74 ,74 ,55 ,11
Observation 2 8 1 270 7,58 ,42 ,42 ,18 ,05
Observation 3 6 2 300 9,82 -3,82 3,82 14,59 ,64
Observation 4 10 1,5 310 9,68 ,32 ,32 ,1 ,03
Observation 5 14 2,5 325 11,33 2,67 2,67 7,11 ,19
Observation 6 15 2,7 375 13,51 1,49 1,49 2,22 ,1
Observation 7 13 2,4 380 13,39 -,39 ,39 ,15 ,03
Observation 8 12 2,5 385 13,69 -1,69 1,69 2,86 ,14
Observation 9 14 2,7 390 14,1 -,1 ,1 ,01 0
Observation 10 16 4,4 400 16,3 -,3 ,3 ,09 ,02
Observation 11 15 3 410 15,21 -,21 ,21 ,04 ,01
Observation 12 17 3,5 420 16,13 ,87 ,87 ,76 ,05
TOTALS 147 28,7 4215 0 13 28,66 1,38
AVERAGE 12,25 2,39 351,25 0 1,08 2,39 ,11
(Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Betas -4,1 1,06 ,04 Std err 1,78

Created by POM-QM for Windows

1E.
(untitled)

JUMLAH
JUMLAH TURIS
PENUMPANG
Observation 1 ,5 7
Observation 2 1 8
Observation 3 2 6
Observation 4 1,5 10
Observation 5 2,5 14
Observation 6 2,7 15
Observation 7 2,4 13
Observation 8 2,5 12
Observation 9 2,7 14
Observation 10 4,4 16
Observation 11 3 15
Observation 12 3,5 17

Created by POM-QM for Windows


(untitled) Summary
Measure Value
Error Measures
Bias (Mean Error) 0
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) ,4
MSE (Mean Squared Error) ,28
Standard Error (denom=n-2-0=10) ,58
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) ,26
Regression line
JUMLAH TURIS = -,61
+ ,25 * JUMLAH PENUMPANG
Statistics
Correlation coefficient ,85
Coefficient of determination (r^2) ,72

Created by POM-QM for Windows

JADI ESTIMASI JUMLAH TURIS = -.61

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