Regional Tourism

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Using a Regional Tourism Adaptation

Framework to Determine Climate Change
Adaptation Options for Victoria's Surf Coast
a a b c
Ryan Jopp , Terry DeLacy , Judith Mair & Martin Fluker
a
Centre for Tourism and Services Research , Victoria University ,
Melbourne , Victoria , Australia
b
Tourism Research Unit , Monash University , Berwick , Victoria , Australia
c
School of Hospitality Tourism and Marketing , Victoria University ,
Melbourne , Victoria , Australia
Published online: 14 Jun 2012.
To cite this article: Ryan Jopp , Terry DeLacy , Judith Mair & Martin Fluker (2013) Using a Regional Tourism
Adaptation Framework to Determine Climate Change Adaptation Options for Victoria's Surf Coast, Asia Pacific
Journal of Tourism Research, 18:1-2, 144-164, DOI: 10.1080/10941665.2012.688515
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Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, Vol. 18, Nos. 1– 2, January – March 2013
Using a Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework to

Determine Climate Change Adaptation Options for
Victoria’s Surf Coast
Downloaded by [Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona] at 03:41 28 October 2014
Ryan Jopp1∗ , Terry DeLacy1, Judith Mair2 and Martin Fluker3

1
Centre for Tourism and Services Research, Victoria University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
2
Tourism Research Unit, Monash University, Berwick, Victoria, Australia
3
School of Hospitality Tourism and Marketing, Victoria University, Melbourne, Victoria,
Australia
This paper reports research into adaptation to climate change for regional tourism
destinations. It explains the application of a regional tourism adaptation framework
model to the Surf Coast destination, within the state of Victoria, Australia. It then exam-
ines the usefulness of the framework model in guiding a vulnerability resilience assessment
of the destination and developing strategies to increase the destinations resilience, resist-
ance and readiness. A Delphi study was conducted, using a panel of experts, to determine
the major risks and opportunities for tourism in the region as well as appropriate adap-
tation options. Although many of the findings focused on the best way to manage the
negative bio-physical impacts of climate change, such as increased bushfire risk or more
frequent and intense storms, several opportunities also became apparent including the
potential to reduce seasonality. Tourism destination management is already a complex
area and the introduction of climate change provides yet another challenge for managers
and policy-makers. Consequently, the development and use of a regional adaptation fra-
mework can play an important role in assisting destination planning and management.
Key words: climate change, adaptation framework, Delphi study, regional tourism
destinations
Introduction dealing with the effects of climate change

(IPCC, 2007; Scott & Simpson, 2008;
Adaptation has been increasingly recognised Simpson, Gössling, Scott, Hall, & Gladin,
as an important means for strategically 2008). Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel
∗
Email: rjopp@swin.edu.au
ISSN 1094-1665 print/ISSN 1741-6507 online/13/01– 20144–21 # 2013 Asia Pacific Tourism Association
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2012.688515
Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework 145
on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) has indi- Delphi study on strategies to increase the
cated that all societies and economic sectors, Surf Coast’s resilience, resistance and readi-
including tourism, will inevitability need to ness to manage climate change impacts.
adapt to climate change. Finally, the paper summarises and discusses
While there are a number of general the results of applying the RTAF model to des-
(COAG, 2007; Lim, Spanger-Siegfried, tination Surf Coast.
Burton, Malone, & Huq, 2005) tourism adap-
tation frameworks (Simpson et al., 2008),
none are reported that are specifically designed Climate Change Adaptation and Tourism
for regional tourism destinations with the
exception of the regional tourism adaptation An overwhelming body of scientific evidence

framework (RTAF) model proposed by Jopp, provides evidence that climate change is occur-
DeLacy, and Mair (2010). The RTAF was ring and that this is almost certainly a result of
specifically designed to assist regional destina- an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) gener-
tion managers and policy-makers deal with the ated by human activities (Garnaut, 2008;
inevitable impacts of a changing climate and IPCC, 2007; Stern & Great Britain Treasury,
aims to 2007). The travel and tourism industry is par-
ticularly vulnerable to changes in climate and
provide a guideline for adaptation whereby the key impacts such as an increased global tempera-
vulnerabilities are assessed, and appropriate adap- ture, sea-level rise and increasingly intense
tation actions are identified and implemented, in and frequent storm events, as these are likely
order to increase the region’s resilience and resist- to cause significant bio-physical and socio-
ance to climate change risks, and increase readiness economic impacts (DeLacy, 2007). Impacts
to capitalise on any opportunities presented. (Jopp across both of these categories may affect the
et al., 2010, p. 599) relevant attractiveness of a tourist destination.
The IPCC (2007) identifies two broad
This scoping paper reports on the application approaches to deal with climate change, miti-
of the RTAF model to the Surf Coast region, gation and adaptation. Mitigation involves
within the state of Victoria, Australia, as a reducing GHG emissions to minimise any
single case study, with particular focus on changes to climate, while adaptation reduces
the process of identifying and assessing adap- the vulnerability to climate change impacts by
tation options. increasing the ability to cope with any poten-
This is achieved by reviewing the literature tially adverse effects. Until recently, mitigation
on tourism adaptation and climate change was seen as the best way to respond to the
then summarising the RTAF model. The climate crisis, and it was thought that a coordi-
methods used to test the model in the Surf nated global response to mitigate GHG emis-
Coast region are then outlined. The paper sions would avoid any major negative
then reports on an assessment of the Surf consequences (Wilbanks et al., 2003). Mitiga-
Coast’s vulnerability and resilience by describ- tion was seen as key to the fight against
ing the destination’s tourism system, establish- climate change, and discussion of adaptation
ing risks and opportunities and determining was kept in the background because it was
the destination’s adaptive capacity. This is seen as a somewhat defeatist view, as it would
followed by summarising the results of a only reduce the urgency of appropriate mitiga-
146 Ryan Jopp et al.
tion. However, adaptation is now recognised et al., 2006; Simpson et al., 2008), most of
by the IPCC, and the majority of scientists these studies are either non-tourism specific
and governments around the world, as a vital or are not designed for implementation at the
component of an integrated approach to tack- regional level. Amongst these, only Simpson
ling climate change. et al. (2008), Becken and Hay (2007) and
Scott et al. (2006) have specifically developed
Adaptation in the Tourism Sector models or frameworks for tourism adaptation.
However, there is no report of their work
Climate change will impact all countries and being tested in or applied to regional tourism
all sectors to some degree, including tourism. destinations, other than skiing destinations.
Indeed, climate and tourism are inextricably Of these models, the approach by Simpson
linked, as it is the climate (hours of sun, et al. (2008, p. 35) appears to be the most com-
amount of snow, etc.) which sets the bound- prehensive as it considers the sequence of
aries of tourism potential at many destinations events in adaptation as “an iterative cycle of
in terms of the range of activities that can be problem definition, adaptation implemen-
offered in order to meet tourist demand tation and evaluation of outcomes” while pro-
(Martin, 2005). As destinations do not have viding lines for feedback between the various
the ability to relocate, clearly their ability to stages. This model is also the most comprehen-
adapt to potential changes in climate sible of the models available, and detailed
becomes crucial. Moreover, if a tourism desti- information on each of the steps is provided.
nation aims to remain economically, environ- This model does not however present infor-
mentally and socially sustainable, it will need mation on the different types of adaptation
to adapt to climate change in order to mini- available and this is where the work of Scott
mise the potential risks and capitalise on et al. (2006) is of additional benefit. Their
potential opportunities. approach includes discussion of the three
main types of adaptation mentioned pre-
viously: behavioural, technical and business
Types of Adaptation
management, which provides greater insight
into adaptation options.
Various types of adaptation suitable for the
Furthermore, despite emphasising the
tourism sector are discussed in the literature
importance of a participatory, multi-stake-
(IPCC, 2007; Scott, de Freitas, & Matzarakis,
holder approach, Simpson’s model does not
2006; Scott & Simpson, 2008; Simpson et al.,
consider the role of the tourist at any stage.
2008). Scott et al. (2006) describe three broad
Despite stating that “stakeholders should be
types of adaptation which are summarised in
sought, both those directly involved in the
Table 1.
tourism sector and whose livelihoods are
affected by tourism”, tourists themselves are
Adaptation Models Available not included amongst the plethora of
suggested stakeholders (Simpson et al., 2008,
Although there is a growing literature that p. 36). As tourists have been identified as
addresses climate change adaptation (inter having the greatest adaptive capacity of all
alia: Becken & Hay, 2007; DeLacy, 2009; the tourism stakeholders, it is necessary to
Fussel, 2009; Fussel & Klein, 2006; Scott have an understanding of how any adaptation
Table 1 Adaptation Types
Adaptation type What does it involve? What does it require? Examples
Technical This involves utilising technology and This often requires specialised equipment Desalination plants or snow-making
adaptation being innovative in order to determine and/or the use of new technologies and machines
methods of coping with climate change innovations. Also, due to the cost and
and vulnerability complexities of many technical
adaptation options, this type of
adaptation often requires government
backing
Business Involves techniques used by tourism This may require destination managers to Marketing techniques such as new
management operators, regional governments and change their marketing approach to try pricing strategies, product/market
adaptation tourism industry associations to reduce and increase or decrease travel during diversification and positioning can
Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework

vulnerability to climate change certain times and/or redirect tourists to all be utilised
different locations, or encourage them
to engage in different activities
Behavioural This form of adaptation is normally Although behavioural adaptation is Adjusting the type of clothing worn,
adaptation associated with the tourist, as they generally conducted by the tourist, changing the activities engaged in,
have the ability to decide on the there are some strategies that adjusting the timing of the visit,
tourism activities they engage in and destination managers can use to effect changing the destination altogether
where and when they do so. This behaviour. This can be achieved by
ability for spatial, temporal and using the previous two types of
activity substitution subsequently adaptation (technical and business
provide tourists with tremendous management) to manipulate the
adaptive capacity behaviour of tourists
Source: Adapted from Scott et al. (2006).
147
implemented may impact on their perceptions for considering adaptation to changes in

of a destination, behaviour at the destination tourism climate. As a result of these apparent
or decision to travel. gaps in the literature, Jopp et al. (2010) proposed
The model presented by Becken and Hay a model for regional tourism adaptation to
(2007) differs from Simpson’s, as it takes a climate change that draws from the adaptation
risk science approach to adaptation. A risk models previously mentioned. The following
science approach involves estimating the risk section provides a brief summary of this model.
of various impacts, by determining the likeli-
hood of exposure to various stressors, and
the magnitude of consequences to such The RTAF Model
exposure, in order to determine risk profiles.

A risk science (or risk management) approach The RTAF model involves two major phases.
has been widely used when examining adap- The first assesses the vulnerability and resili-
tation strategies (Australian Government, ence of the destination, and involves defining
2006, 2007; COAG, 2007), and any adap- the tourism system, establishing the climate
tation framework would benefit from incor- change risks and opportunities, and determin-
porating such an approach. ing the adaptive capacity. The second details
The report by Scott et al. (2006, p. 4) provides the process of identifying, evaluating and
a valuable investigation of the types of implementing adaptation options in order to
adaptation available in the tourism sector. increase resilience, resistance and readiness
However, rather than providing a detailed (Jopp et al., 2010).
framework for adapting to climate change Although Figure 1 presents the framework
impacts, they provide a conceptual framework in a linear fashion, the entire process can also
Figure 1 The RTAF Model (Jopp et al., 2010)

be considered cyclical, as the process of adap- The Surf Coast region was chosen as a case
tation should be recognised as part of an study as it is vulnerable to a wide range of
ongoing approach to sustainable tourism potential climate change impacts and is
development (Jopp et al., 2010). This is con- typical of many regional, coastal tourism des-
sidered important as key elements of each tinations. For example, changes from impacts
stage of this process are likely to change over such as sea-level rise, storm surge, erosion
time. For example, the key stakeholders in and inundation are generalisable to most
the tourism system will undoubtedly evolve coastal tourism destinations. Although social,
over time as various governments, depart- political and economic factors as well as
ments and organisations come and go. Collec- some impacts will be destination specific, the
tive knowledge of potential risks and common goal of developing an appropriate

opportunities will also develop in time, as adaptation framework will involve similar
further research clarifies many of the uncer- issues of sustainability, stakeholder consul-
tainties surrounding climate change impacts. tation, tourist satisfaction and policy develop-
Finally, the development of new technologies ment.
may increase a destination’s adaptive capacity; The Delphi technique, first developed by the
likewise, a change in local, state or federal Rand Corporation for the US Air force in the
government may see a change in political 1950s (Hasson, Keeney, & McKenna, 2000;
will to address the concerns of climate change. Veal, 1997), was applied to the second phase
of the RTAF model to identify and assess the
available adaptation options. The Delphi tech-
Methodology nique was chosen as it is an efficient method of
producing creative solutions by combining
To test the RTAF framework, a single desti- individual responses in order to produce a
nation-specific case study approach was used pooled group response (Miller, 2001;
using the Surf Coast region near Melbourne, Wedley, 1980). Simpson (2008, p. 43) also
Australia. First, the vulnerability and resili- suggests that “Delphi techniques with key sta-
ence of the destination was assessed using keholders and potential implementing part-
the RTAF model and then strategies were rec- ners can also be used to identify adaptation
ommended to increase the destination resili- options”. The major advantage of the Delphi
ence, resistance and readiness. A descriptive technique is participants do not know each
case study such as this requires multiple other, and therefore are able to respond
sources of evidence (Yin, 1993); therefore, independently without influence from others
secondary data were sourced from regional/ involved. This reduces the effect of domineer-
local tourism offices, local councils, local ing personalities who may act as opinion
environmental/conservation officers, Tourism leaders and influence the responses of others
Victoria and others, before primary research involved. The other advantage is that partici-
via stakeholder interviews and an expert pants may be located in widespread geo-
Delphi study was conducted. This is impor- graphic locations and questions may be
tant as case studies are designed to bring administered by phone, Skype, email, fax
out the details from the viewpoint of the or post.
participants using multiple sources of data There are also limitations or weaknesses of
(Tellis, 1997). the Delphi technique. These weaknesses as
stated by Hsu and Sandford (2007) include the stakeholders, all of which will be impacted
potential for low response rates due to the mul- (either directly or indirectly) by climate-
tiple feedback process and the possibility of induced changes, fluctuations in resource
indentifying general statements versus specific availability and multi-scaled responses to
topic-related information. As the expertise these changes.
and knowledge of participants is likely to Every tourism system comprises the follow-
vary, the Delphi technique is designed to ing five basic elements (Leiper, 2004):
provide a general perspective on an issue
rather than a specific explanation. Despite its (1) Tourists – the essential human element.
limitations, the Delphi technique has been (2) Tourist-generating regions (TGRs) – geo-
commonly adopted in medical, nursing and graphical place where a tourist’s trip
health services research (Hasson et al., 2000) begins and usually ends.
as well as some areas of business and techno- (3) Tourist destination regions (TDRs) – geo-
logical forecasting (Veal, 1997). It has also graphical places where a tourist’s main
been used by various tourism researchers visiting activity occurs.
including Weber and Ladkin (2003), Miller (4) Transit route region – transit routes and
(2001) and Tideswell, Mules, and Faulkner infrastructure tourists use to travel
(2001). The application and results of the between TGRs and TDRs.
Delphi study are outlined later in this paper. (5) Tourism industries – collection of organ-
isations and businesses that facilitate the
creation, management and delivery of the
Phase 1: Vulnerability and Resilience purchased tourism product.
Assessment
The elements of the Surf Coast tourism
As displayed in Figure 1, the first phase of the system and their linkages are mapped out in
RTAF model comprises three distinct stages: Figure 2. This figure also provides information
(1) defining the tourism system, (2) establish- on a number of external environments within
ing the risks and opportunities and (3) deter- which tourism occurs. Changes in these
mining the adaptive capacity. The following environments may cause changes in the way
sections will describe each stage of the vulner- tourism is provided and consumed (Richardson
ability and resilience assessment for the Surf & Fluker, 2008). The model attempts to clarify
Coast region. the complex relationship between the various
elements in the whole tourism system, while
demonstrating that tourism does not exist in a
Defining the Tourism System vacuum and is affected by various environ-
ments, including climate.
The Surf Coast Shire includes a major section Each element of the tourism system is
of the Great Ocean Road (GOR), which is embedded within a wider socio-political, econ-
the fastest growing tourism region in the omic and environmental context that shapes
state of Victoria (Parks Victoria, 2009). The every aspect of the system from the tourist’s
Surf Coast as a destination is a product con- desires and expectations through to legal par-
structed from a composite of interconnected ameters of travel (e.g. visa requirements,
elements brought together by a variety of airline emissions standards and flight curfews),
Figure 2 The Surf Coast Tourism System
tourism planning policy and process structures Establish Climate Change Risks and
and economic revenue flows that run through Opportunities for Surf Coast Tourism
the economic goods and services value chain.
While tourism activity does centre on the The Surf Coast region has been selected for this
TDR, the impact and consequences of severe case study as it is a major Victorian tourist des-
shocks such as cyclones or bushfires, and more tination, receiving more than 1.3 million visitors
slow-onset stressors such as global warming each year (Tourism Alliance Victoria, 2008),
and sea-level rise, on one part of the system and because it is vulnerable to a range of
often reverberates throughout the entire climate change impacts. The Surf Coast, like
system. Accordingly, it is imperative to identify many Australian tourism destinations, has a
the main components that make up the Surf coastal orientation. Australian tourism surveys
Coast tourism system and to understand the (Henrick & Johnson, 2000) indicate that, of
interlinkages and relationships that exist the 10 most popular attractions to international
between these elements, as well as the contex- visitors to Australia, 8 are within a coastal zone,
tual environments within which the system including the GOR (part of the Surf Coast).
operates. Once the tourism system is defined at Coastal destinations are especially vulnerable
the relevant stakeholders engaged, the next to climate change-related impacts such as
stage involves evaluating the potential impacts storm surge inundation and erosion (Voice,
of climate change on tourism within the TDRs. Harvey, & Walsh 2006). Tourism within the
Surf Coast region is also very vulnerable to bush- Although the negative impacts of climate
fires, which are forecast to become more fre- change appear to outweigh the positive
quent and intense as a result of climate change impacts, it is also important for destination
(Cioccio & Michael, 2007; DeLacy & Jago, managers to identify any opportunities
2007). Many of the Surf Coast’s major coastal brought about by climate change. Whether
townships are bound by highly bushfire-suscep- this is decreasing seasonality or an increasing
tible forests on their northern border. number of suitable beach days, understanding
The Surf Coast offers a “spectacular coastline, the implications of climate change for tourism,
scenic rainforests and magnificent beaches, and both positive and negative, is necessary to gain
is one of the major tourist draw cards of Austra- a complete picture of possible impacts and
lia” (Surf Coast Shire, 2008). The natural phy- therefore enable appropriate adaptation. The
siography of the region is a core attractor for effect of various climate change impacts will
many tourists, with a drive along the GOR also be largely dependent upon the regions
being on most visitors “must do list” when visit- ability to adapt; consequently, the next
ing Victoria. The natural environment and land- section will examine the regions’ adaptive
scape of the region forms the essence of its capacity.
appeal, and it is vital to the long-term competi-
tiveness of the Surf Coast as a destination that
appropriate resource stewardship exists to Adaptive Capacity
protect such valuable tourism assets. This is
largely the responsibility of public agencies Destinations such as the Surf Coast are limited
such as Parks Victoria and the Department of in their ability to adapt, as unlike tour oper-
Sustainability and Environment. ators or tourists themselves, they do not have
The Surf Coast region has a relatively high the ability to relocate (Scott et al., 2006;
dependence on tourism, and is vulnerable to a Scott & Jones, 2006). While individual adap-
range of different climate change impacts. In tation will be dependent on personal knowl-
2006, tourism equated to $258 million in edge and values, a destinational adaptation
tourist expenditure (Geelong Otway Tourism, approach is more complex, simply due to the
2007). This expenditure is estimated to directly number of stakeholders involved. The adap-
support 800 full-time and part-time jobs, and tive capacity of a destination incorporates
indirectly support up to 1040 jobs (Geelong diverse elements, including the capacity to
Otway Tourism, 2007). The review of vulner- limit exposure to risks associated with
ability to climate change impacts is divided climate change, absorb and recover from
into two sections: (1) the bio-physical dimension losses stemming from climate impacts, and
which looks at environmental fragility, and capitalise upon opportunities that arise
changes to the natural environment and (2) the through the process of adaptation (Simpson
socio-economic environment which looks at et al., 2008). The key elements determining
the vulnerability of different social groups and the adaptive capacity for the Surf Coast
economic sectors such as transportation and tourism system include the following:
accommodation. Table 2 provides a summary
of the key climate change impacts, both bio- . High level of economic development
physical and socio-economic, that are likely to . Relatively high level of dependence on
influence the vulnerability of Surf Coast tourism. tourism for income and employment
Table 2 Potential Climate Change Impacts for Surf Coast Tourism
Climate change
impact Predicted outcome for Surf Coast tourism
Bio-physical impacts
Rainfall Dependent on the rate of emissions, average annual rainfall is expected to
reduce by 4 – 12% (Department of Sustainability and Environment
[DSE], 2008). Furthermore, according to the DSE (2008), fewer rainy
days are expected, with more droughts; however, the intensity of heavy
daily rainfall is likely to rise, impacting on soil erosion
Temperature Victoria is expected to become warmer with more hot days and less cold
nights (Australian Government, 2009). This will likely lead to more
extreme heat days and fewer frosts. By 2030, average annual
temperatures for the Surf Coast region will be approximately 0.88
warmer (DSE, 2008).
Sea-level rise Global sea levels are predicted to rise 0.18– 0.59 m by 2095 (DSE, 2008).
The Victorian coastline is likely to see an increase in erosion of beaches
and sand dunes, and inundation of fresh water systems (DSE, 2008)
Storm surge The frequency and intensity of storms and storm surges are predicted to
increase (DSE, 2008) Increasing sea levels, combined with more frequent
severe storms, are likely to impact on both environmental assets and
coastal infrastructure
Bushfire Climate change predictions by the CSIRO suggest that the Surf Coast
region will become hotter and drier, creating perfect conditions for more
frequent and intense fire storms (DSE, 2008)
Water Lower rainfalls and higher temperatures may also reduce water quality and
accessibility
Bio-diversity Climate change will affect bio-diversity on many levels, from individuals to
ecosystems (DSE, 2008). The most susceptible will be those with
restricted or specialised habitat requirements, poor dispersal abilities and
small populations (DSE, 2008)
Socio-economic impacts
Settlements The aforementioned impacts will have numerous direct and indirect
impacts on human settlements throughout the Surf Coast region. Impacts
may include damage to infrastructure such as roads, lifeline
infrastructure such as water and power, and beachside dwellings. The
Australian Government (2009) suggests that the area of land subject to
inundation due to sea-level rise and storm surge is likely to increase by
4 – 15% by 2030
(Continued)
Table 2 Continued
Climate change
impact Predicted outcome for Surf Coast tourism
Destination appeal Favourable climatic conditions at tourist destinations are key to their
appeal, particularly at beach destinations, which are still the dominating
form of tourism. Changing climatic conditions can affect the appeal of a
destination in either a positive or negative manner, as improved or
deteriorated conditions affect seasonal demand. For example, increasing
average temperatures could lengthen summer seasons at beach locations

across the Surf Coast, reducing seasonality issues. However, the
increased threat of extreme weather events, such as bushfires, could
negatively impact demand
Consumer Increased public awareness and understanding of tourism’s link with
behaviour climate change may bring about significant changes in tourist
motivations and behaviour, in particular in relation to emissions from
long-haul flights
Policy response Changes to national and international policy in regards to a carbon tax and
carbon trading are likely to impact on the cost of air travel. A carbon tax
on aviation fuel would particularly affect long-haul flights to Australia
due to the high level of emissions
. Highly climate-dependent tourism resources Due to the dynamic and complex nature of
(i.e. beaches and forests) tourism systems, these elements cannot be
. High degree of seasonality easily quantified; however, the factors outlined
. Diverse tourism markets (intrastate, inter- aim to provide a broader understanding of the
state and international) context of the destination with the whole
. High level of access to technology and resources tourism system.
. Committed and knowledgeable local and
regional tourism departments
. Comprehensive tourism research and mar- Phase 2: Increase Resilience, Resistance
keting programmes in place and Readiness
. Physical adaptation of GOR somewhat
restricted by natural landscape (ocean on The second phase of the RTAF model involves
one side and cliffs on the other) the process of adaptation. While the adap-
. Strong relationships with other local and tation process displayed in the model (Figure
regional tourism regions, enabling the 1) illustrates a five-stage process, the remain-
sharing of information and knowledge der of this paper will focus solely on the first
. Moderate degree of flexibility in terms of two components of the adaptation process:
available tourism product. identifying and assessing the adaptation
options. Further research is planned to test the Selection of the Expert Panel
adaptation options with tourists and the
implementation and evaluation components The selection of appropriate subjects for the
will be decided upon by destination managers expert panel is considered key to the success
and policy-makers based upon the overall find- of the entire Delphi process as it relates
ings of the research. The following section dis- directly to the quality of the results generated
cusses the use of a Delphi study conducted to (Hsu & Sandford, 2007). Furthermore, in
first identify and then assess the adaptation choosing the panel, it was necessary to have
options available for tourism within the Surf a balanced representation of experts with
Coast region. different backgrounds, who were able to
provide a range of opinions (Miller, 2001). A

list of potential panel members was initially
Delphi Study Used to Identify and Assess developed from the existing networks of the
Adaptation Options Centre for Tourism and Services Research in
Melbourne, Australia. Potential participants
The study involved consultation with relevant were then contacted by phone to determine
experts in the fields of climate change and des- their interest and availability to be involved
tination management to assist in the initial in the project. Panelists were expected to
development of adaptation strategies (Jen- have a solid working knowledge across at
nings, 2001; Veal, 1997). These experts pro- least two of the three following areas:
vided an independent view on climate change
and adaptation, which enabled the develop- (1) Climate change adaptation
ment of potential adaptation scenarios. Par- (2) Tourism
ticipants were presented with an overview of (3) The Surf Coast region.
the potential impacts of climate change on
the Surf Coast region, as well as information The purpose of this combination was to
on the current tourism system and the ensure a good balance of expertise and knowl-
regions adaptive capacity, as identified in edge across the various fields being investigated.
phase 1. This information was provided via It was also necessary to ensure a good mix of
an information portal (website) designed backgrounds with no more than three partici-
specifically for the project. Each stakeholder pants sharing the same profession or geographic
was then asked to contribute ideas and location. A total of nine experts consented to
opinions regarding the best options for adap- the study. They were chosen from various dom-
tation. This approach entailed two stages to estic and international organisations including
enable knowledge sharing between the Universities, the United Nations World
various experts and encourage the generation Tourism Organisation, the IPCC, Tourism
of useful ideas (Jennings, 2001; Veal, 1997). and Transport Forum (Australia), Tourism Vic-
As a part of the process, the responses from toria and Geelong-Otway Tourism (the local
earlier rounds were summarised and fed back tourism board). Each participant was sent an
to participants in consequent rounds. This email containing information on the study,
process of controlled feedback was repeated including the appropriate ethics clearance. As
until a consensus was reached (Hasson et al., mentioned previously, panel members were
2000). also provided detailed background information
on the study via the specifically designed infor- considering the potential risks associated
mation portal. with climate change.
(3) Please tell us your opinion of the following
adaptation options for Surf Coast tourism
The Delphi Process considering the potential opportunities
associated with climate change.
The first round of the Delphi study involved a
semi-structured interview. These interviews The rating of each potential climate change
were conducted in person where possible; other- impact is presented in Figure 3 where the likely
wise telephone or Skype meetings were organ- impact on Surf Coast tourism is presented on a
ised (three of the panel lived outside Australia). continuum between 1 representing “no impact
The interviews lasted between 40 minutes and at all” and 5 representing a “severe impact”.
an hour, which allowed participants to talk The top 10 ranked impacts, in terms of their
freely about their concerns and ideas for potential effect are provided, with the remain-
action. The aim of the first round of the study ing impacts amalgamated, and presented in
was for the participants to express what they the bottom row titled “Other”.
thought were the main issues for Surf Coast The second question aimed to determine
tourism as a result of climate change and what how strongly panel members favoured or
were potential adaptation options. opposed the adaptation options aimed at mini-
Initially, a checklist of potential impacts was mising the risks associated with climate
considered and any supplementary impacts change. Unlike the first question, all 11 adap-
discussed. This was followed by the intervie- tation options initially discussed in round 1
wee proposing a list of adaptation options are rated and included in this discussion. The
designed to manage climate change risks and scale used for this question ranged from 1
capitalise on any potential opportunities. (strongly agree) to 5 (strongly oppose).
Interviews were transcribed and coded to The final question asked refers to adaptation
quantify the different climate change impacts options that could be implemented to capita-
and adaptation options mentioned. Once the lise on any potential opportunities that may
first round results had been collected and col- arise as a result of climate change. This rep-
lated, the second round survey was distributed resented an important component of the
to participants. Participants were asked to rate research as many adaptation frameworks
the potential effect of each of the climate took a risk minimisation approach to adap-
change impacts discussed in the first round tation, neglecting to recognise the potential
and then state whether they favoured or opportunities that may arise. The scale used
opposed the various adaptation options. A for this question was the same utilised for
five-point Likert scale was used. The survey question 2.
involved the following three questions:
(1) What sort of effects are the following Results of the Delphi Study
climate change impacts likely to have on
Surf Coast tourism? The majority of impacts and adaptation
(2) Please tell us your opinion of the following responses discussed were in relation to the
adaptation options for Surf Coast tourism bio-physical environment; however, socio-
Figure 3 Rating of Climate Change Impacts’ Likely Effect on Surf Coast Tourism
economic factors such as the effect on destina- ness campaigns for tourists. Other adaptation
tion appeal and the need for greater awareness responses included early warning systems, risk
and education throughout the tourism system minimisation strategies and “no-grow” zones
were also proposed. From a solely bio-physical around properties. However, the most com-
perspective, there was almost unanimous monly identified adaptation options involved
agreement that the Surf Coast’s major threats the use of controlled burning (reducing fuel
were bushfire and coastal management load in low risk fire season) and fire breaks.
issues. The most commonly identified climate With regards to coastal management issues
change impacts likely to affect Surf Coast such as sea-level rise, increased storm surges
tourism were bushfires, coastal erosion, sea- and coastal erosion, a number of adaptation
level rise and storm surges. options were also presented, such as the con-
Fire presented a major risk not only to prop- struction of sea walls or the development of
erty and human life, but also to destination improved weather monitoring and early
appeal. Adaptation strategies suggested warning systems.
include opening up new or different tourism Finally, a range of opportunities resulting
areas that are less vulnerable to fire, increasing from climate change were identified. The
fire-fighting capacity and developing aware- three common suggestions were: (1) the
ability to capitalise on the emergence of the so- 1.38. As described in Table 1, technical adap-
called “green” consumer, (2) the opportunity tations usually involve utilising technology
to take market share from competing coastal and being innovative in order to determine
destinations and (3) the potential to decrease methods of coping with climate change and
seasonality and extend the peak summer vulnerability.
season. Storm surge and coastal erosion were also
identified as potentially having a major
impact on Surf Coast tourism, both averaging
Discussion of the Delphi Results 4.0. This indicated that participants thought
both impacts were likely to have a major
The first round of the Delphi study yielded a impact on tourism at the Surf Coast. Adap-
variety of responses in regards to potential tation in this area was seen as a priority due
adaptation strategies ranging from broad to the major role coastal attractions and activi-
over-arching business management and ties play in forming the appeal of the Surf
policy responses to technical impacts and/or Coast.
destination-specific responses. While the As can be seen from Figure 4, communi-
second round largely confirmed the priorities cation of likely impacts with various stake-
regarding adaptation, several issues that were holder, including tourists, along with the
discussed broadly during the interviews were implementation of future planning that incor-
largely neglected during the online survey. porates action planning and smart design were
Interestingly, the top 10 impacts identified the most strongly favoured adaptation
as likely to have an effect on Surf Coast options, both receiving an average score of
tourism all scored above 3, indicating that 1.12. Interestingly, both these options fall
there was a consensus amongst the panel that under what Scott et al. (2006) identify as
each of the climate change impacts proposed business management forms of adaptation.
in the survey would have at least a moderate These are techniques that can be used by
effect on tourism in the region. However, tourism operators, regional governments and
two of the potential impacts that were tourism industry associations to reduce vul-
thoroughly discussed during the first round, nerability to climate change (Table 1).
increased temperature and species loss, were The most strongly opposed adaptation
not rated highly enough by the panel to be con- options were clear, and both involved a
sidered amongst the 10 most influential reduction in amenity for potential tourists.
impacts on tourism in the region. Closing the GOR or making it one-way was
Perhaps unsurprisingly, bushfire was ident- the most strongly opposed adaptation option
ified as potentially having the greatest impact (mean ¼ 4.0). However, in hindsight, this
on Surf Coast tourism (mean ¼ 4.25). This question may have been better worded, and
was also the most discussed impact during perhaps the closure of the GOR given a time-
the initial interviews in round 1 of the Delphi frame and/or further explanation, as clearly
study. The technical adaptations to counteract the permanent closure of the road would dra-
the increased risk of bushfire also rated highly, matically impair tourism throughout the
with the use of fire breaks and controlled region. Similarly, given the relative impor-
burning as well as the use of early warning tance of beaches for providing the appropriate
systems both scoring an average score of setting for many of the Surf Coast’s major
Figure 4 The Popularity of Various Adaptation Options
touristic activities such as swimming and opportunity would certainly be influenced by

surfing, it is not surprising that this adaptation other factors, such as the timing of public
was also opposed (3.38). and school holidays. However, if the weather
In terms of capitalising on potential oppor- at either side of the traditional summer peak
tunities brought about by climate change, the period was to improve, and conditions for
most strongly favoured adaptation option popular activities such as swimming and
(1.38) focused on increased promotion of the going to the beach remained favourable, then
tourism off season in order to decrease season- potentially the region could reduce seasonality
ality issues. It is a characteristic of most issues by encouraging tourists to visit during
tourism destinations that demand fluctuates these shoulder periods.
greatly between seasons of the year (Middle- Another highly rated adaption opportunity
ton, 2001); consequently, it is perhaps not sur- identified by the expert panel was the opportu-
prising that any potential ability to decrease nity to position the region to allow it to capita-
seasonality is seen as an opportunity. This lise on the growth of the so-called “green
adaptation option initially arose through dis- tourist”. Debate over the existence of the
cussion of a warming climate and the possible green consumer has been widespread (Bergin-
extension of the peak summer period. Such an Seers & Mair, 2009; Straughn & Roberts,
1999; Swarbrooke & Horner, 1999); Undoubtedly, adaptation may not only be
however, there is no doubt that in recent used to minimise the risks of adverse climate
years, environmental issues such as climate change impacts, but also to capitalise on oppor-
change have come to the forefront of public tunities that may present themself. Further-
debate (Bergin-Seers & Mair, 2009). As a con- more, these opportunities will become more
sequence of this, there is little doubt that the apparent as the uncertainty surrounding
public both here in Australia and globally are climate change impacts dissipates. Moreover,
becoming increasingly knowledgeable and improved climate change science, along with
aware of climate change issues. Moreover, continued research into the potential effects
this is impacting on their attitudes and behav- on tourist behaviour, will undoubtedly realise
iour, which in turn represents both challenges further opportunities that will help offset the
and opportunities for producers and marketers many challenges brought by climate change.
of tourism products. Figure 5 shows the relevant popularity of
Indeed, the influence of climate change on each of the adaptation options, in terms of
consumer behaviour can be seen as an extension their ability to capitalise on potential opportu-
to so-called “green tourism” whereby tourists nities for Surf Coast tourism, as a result of
became more environmentally aware, and con- climate change.
sequently the tourism industry began supplying
“environmentally friendly” products marketed
towards this new segment (Andereck, 2007; Conclusion
Straughn & Roberts, 1999; Swarbrooke &
Horner, 1999). Furthermore, recent research The various impacts resulting from climate
predicting that climate change will influence change are a major concern for the development
tourist behaviour and choice of destinations of regional tourism destinations. Lack of atten-
(Amelung, Nicholls, & Viner, 2005; Berrittella, tion to these possible impacts may lead to a
Bigano, Roson, & Tol, 2005; Hamilton, Maddi- degradation of the very resources that the desti-
son, & Tol, 2005; Hamilton & Tol, 2004; nation relies upon to attract visitation. Changes
McEvoy, Cavan, Handley, McMorrow, & across the entire tourism system may permeate
Lindley, 2008) presents destination managers through to the destination itself, justifying the
with new marketing opportunities and chal- need to take a holistic approach to adaptation.
lenges. This provides strong evidence to Furthermore, climate change may indeed
support the assertion by Jopp et al. (2010) that present opportunities for tourism destinations,
possible adaptation options should be tested and adaptation that capitalises on these oppor-
with consumers before being implemented. tunities may assist in offsetting the negative
It could also be argued that the high degree impacts associated with climate change.
of support for developing new target markets This paper has applied the RTAF model to
(1.62) could be associated with the potential the Surf Coast region and through this
to capitalise on the so-called “green tourist”. process identified numerous adaption options,
However, further research is needed to deter- both bio-physical and socio-economic. The
mine if there are other potential market seg- model provided a step-by-step guide to increas-
ments that the Surf Coast is currently not ing a destination’s resilience and resistance to
targeting, that may warrant greater attention climate change impacts while also increasing
given the potential impacts of climate change. readiness to capitalise on potential opportu-
Figure 5 The Popularity of Various Adaptation Options that Capitalise on Climate Change
Opportunities
nities. The iterative process of gathering infor- appropriate tool for identifying and assessing
mation, both qualitative and quantitative, pro- appropriate adaptation strategies to assist
vides decision-makers in the tourism industry a with the management of potential climate
means of improving their preparedness for, and change impacts, as it allowed for the major
subsequent management of, consequences that issues to be identified and clarified. While the
are a result of climate change. Indeed, the results do not provide a definitive answer as
implementation of any chosen adaptation to the correct adaptation option/s to
option would need to coincide with appropri- implement, they do provide valuable insight
ate marketing strategies. This is where research into the potential opportunities, and would
into consumer attitudes towards various adap- likely assist decision-makers in planning for a
tation options would be invaluable in both sustainable future. Tourism destination man-
helping to understand the preferences of differ- agement is already a complex area, involving
ent groups and in creating targeted pro- an array of stakeholders, and the introduction
motional campaigns. of climate change provides yet another chal-
Upon a review of the literature, it was deter- lenge for both managers and policy-makers.
mined that the Delphi technique was the Consequently the development of a regional
adaptation framework for tourism desti- further community consultation, in order to

nations to evaluate and incorporate the range gain an all-inclusive view on potential adap-
of adaptation options is deemed to be of valu- tations. This could involve surveying residents
able contribution to knowledge. However, and/or conducting focus groups of business
before decisions are made regarding adap- owners living in the region for more than five
tation strategies, the options identified years.
through the application of the Delphi study A further limitation that could be posited is
must be tested with consumers. Ultimately, it the lack of research into the region’s adaptive
is the tourist who decides whether or not to capacity. It is recognised that the adaptive
visit a destination, and as a consequence it capacity of the region would play a significant
would be ill-advised to implement any major role in deciding upon the eventual adaptation
adaptation strategies without investigating strategies, and consequently before advancing
their potential impact on destination choice. to the implementation stage further research in
this area would be warranted.
Finally, while this research found the RTAF
Limitations and Further Research model an effective and useful guide to adap-
tation in destination Surf Coast, the model
The limits of this research largely involve the will need to be applied to other tourism desti-
incomplete application of the RTAF model. nations to ascertain its generalisability.
While all components of the model were dis-
cussed, the focus of this paper was largely on
identifying and assessing potential adaptation
options for the Surf Coast region. This meant
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This article was downloaded by: [Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona]

On: 28 October 2014, At: 03:41

Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research

Using a Regional Tourism Adaptation

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2012.688515

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Using a Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework to

Ryan Jopp1∗ , Terry DeLacy1, Judith Mair2 and Martin Fluker3

Introduction dealing with the effects of climate change

exception of the regional tourism adaptation An overwhelming body of scientific evidence

Adaptation type What does it involve? What does it require? Examples

Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework

Source: Adapted from Scott et al. (2006).

implemented may impact on their perceptions for considering adaptation to changes in

exposure, in order to determine risk profiles.

Figure 1 The RTAF Model (Jopp et al., 2010)

tive knowledge of potential risks and common goal of developing an appropriate

Figure 2 The Surf Coast Tourism System

Table 2 Potential Climate Change Impacts for Surf Coast Tourism

average temperatures could lengthen summer seasons at beach locations

provide a range of opinions (Miller, 2001). A

Figure 4 The Popularity of Various Adaptation Options

touristic activities such as swimming and opportunity would certainly be influenced by

adaptation framework for tourism desti- further community consultation, in order to

Cambridge University Press. thresholds. Canberra: Report to the Australian

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