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Probability

The document covers basic concepts in probability and statistics, including definitions of probability, sample space, events, mutually exclusive events, independent events, and conditional probability. It provides examples to illustrate these concepts and discusses properties of the probability function. The objectives are to define key terms, illustrate properties of the probability function, and apply concepts of probability theory to solve problems.

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JDR JDR
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
86 views

Probability

The document covers basic concepts in probability and statistics, including definitions of probability, sample space, events, mutually exclusive events, independent events, and conditional probability. It provides examples to illustrate these concepts and discusses properties of the probability function. The objectives are to define key terms, illustrate properties of the probability function, and apply concepts of probability theory to solve problems.

Uploaded by

JDR JDR
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1st SEMESTER

STAT and PROB

Probability and Statistics are two


branches of mathematics where
probability deals with the measure of the
likelihood that an event will occur in a
random experiment and statistics deal
with the collection, analysis,
interpretation, presentation, and
organization of data.
Uses of Statistics and
Probability
• Political Science
• Psychology
• Economics
• Physical Sciences
• Tourism
• Sports
Objectives
• Define the terms related to basic probability
theory
• Illustrate the properties of a probability
function
• Define mutually exclusive events, conditional
probability and independent events.
• Apply basic concepts in probability theory
• Solve problems involving probabilities
Basic Concepts
of Probability
Statistics and Probability
SY 2019-2020
Definitions
• A random experiment is a process that can be
repeated under similar conditions but whose
outcome cannot be predicted with certainty
before hand.
• Examples:
– Tossing a coin
– Rolling a 6-sided die
– Selecting cards from a standard deck of cards
Definitions
• The sample space, denoted by Ω (Greek letter,
omega), is the collection of all possible
outcomes of a random experiment.
• An element of the sample space is called a
sample point.
• Examples:
– Tossing a coin {heads, tails}
– Rolling a die {1,2,3,4,5,6}
– Selecting a card {52 cards}
Definitions
• An event is a subset of a sample space whose
probability is defined. We say that an event
occurred if the outcome of the experiment is
one of the sample points belonging in the
event; otherwise, the event did not occur.
• Examples:
– Tossing a coin {heads, tails}
• {H}
• {T}
• {H,T}
• ϕ
Definitions
• The impossible event is the empty set, ϕ.
• The sure event is the sample space, Ω

Note: These two subsets of the sample space


will always be events.
Definitions
There are also other subsets of the sample
space.
a. If A is an event, then Ac is also an event.
b. If A and B are events, then the following are
events:
Definitions
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive
events if and only if

Examples of mutually exclusive events:


Definitions
The probability of an event A, denoted by P(A),
is a function that assigns a measure of chance
that event A will occur and must satisfy the
following properties:
Example 1
Alice, Betty and Carol are three candidates for
president in their class. Alice and Betty have the
same chances of winning. However, Carol is four
times as likely to win the election as Alice. Find
the probability of Alice or Betty winning the
election.
Properties of a Probability Function
Conditional Probability
Let A and B be two events where P(B)>0. The
conditional Probability of event A given the
occurrence of event B, denoted by P(A|B) (read
as “probability of A given B”) is
Conditional Probability
The probability that a randomly selected
student passes Trigonometry is 0.60, and the
probability that he passes Stat and Prob is 0.85.
If the probability that he passes at least one of
the two courses is 0.95,
a. What is the probability that the selected
student passes both courses?
b. What is the probability that he fails both
subjects?
Conditional Probability
c. If the selected student received a passing
grade in Trigonometry, what is the probability
that he passes Stat and Prob?
d. If the selected student received a failing grade
in Trigonometry, what is the probability that he
passes Stat and Prob?
Independent Events
Definition:
• Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that
A occurs does not affect the probability of B
occurring.
• An event that is not affected by previous events.
Independent Events
• You flip a coin and get a head and you flip a second
coin and get a tail.
The two coins don’t influence each other.
• The probability of rain today and the probability of
my garbage being collected today;
The garbage will be collected, rain or shine.
Non-Independent Events
• You draw one card from a deck and its black and you
draw a second card and it’s black.
By removing one black card, you made the probability
of drawing a second one slightly smaller. Technically
this is called ‘sampling without replacement’.
• From a class of 18 girls and 12 boys. One student is
chosen who comes to the front of the room then
chooses a second student from those still seated.
By choosing one student in the front, the probability of
choosing a second student is then altered.
Independent Events
Independent Events
Consider the experiment of tossing a fair die twice
Define
A= event of an even number of dots on the first toss
B= event of observing more than 4 dots on the second
toss
C= event observing less than 6 dots on the first toss
Find:
Sources
PowerPoint Slides
• Cayton, Peter Julian A. (Stat 101, Random Variables and Distributions)
• Beaver, Barbara M. (Introduction to Probability and Statistics 12 edition, PPT Slides)

Course Notes
• Daquis, John Carlo P. (Stat 101, Random Variables)

Book
• Almeda, Capistrano, Sarte. (Elementary Statistics)
• Beaver, Beaver, Mendenhall (Introduction to Probability and Statistics 12 edition)

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